Semi-analytic Model Of Galaxy Formation Research Articles

The evolution of supermassive black hole mass–bulge mass relation by a semi-analytical model, ν2GC

ABSTRACT We have investigated the redshift evolution of the relationship between supermassive black hole (SMBH) mass and host bulge mass using a semi-analytical galaxy formation model ν2GC. Our model reproduces the relation in the local universe well. We find that, at high redshift (z ≳ 3), two sequences appear in the SMBH mass–bulge mass plane. The emergence of these two sequences can be attributed to the primary triggers of the growth of the SMBHs and bulges: galaxy mergers and disc instabilities. The growth of SMBHs and bulges as a result of galaxy mergers is responsible for giving rise to the high-mass sequence, in which SMBHs are more massive for a given host bulge mass than in the low-mas sequence. Conversely, disc instabilities are accountable for the emergence of the low-mass sequence. At lower redshifts, galaxy mergers tend to become increasingly deficient in gas, resulting in a preferential increase of bulge mass without a corresponding growth in SMBH mass. This has the effect of causing galaxies in the upper sequence to shift towards the lower one on the SMBH mass–bulge mass plane. The galaxies that undergo dry mergers serve to bridge the gap between the two sequences, eventually leading to convergence into a single relation known in the local universe. Our results suggest that the observations of the SMBH mass–bulge mass relation in high redshifts can provide insight into their growth mechanisms.

Modelling the galaxy radio continuum from star formation and active galactic nuclei in the Shark semi-analytic model

Abstract We present a model of radio continuum emission associated with star formation (SF) and active galactic nuclei (AGN) implemented in the Shark semi-analytic model of galaxy formation. SF emission includes free-free and synchrotron emission, which depend on the free-electron density and the rate of core-collapse supernovae with a minor contribution from supernova remnants, respectively. AGN emission is modelled based on the jet production rate, which depends on the black hole mass, accretion rate and spin, and includes synchrotron self-absorption. Shark reproduces radio luminosity functions (RLFs) at $1.4\, \rm GHz$ and $150\, \rm MHz$ for 0 ≤ z ≤ 4, and scaling relations between radio luminosity, star formation rate and infrared luminosity of galaxies in the local and distant universe in good agreement with observations. The model also reproduces observed number counts of radio sources from 150 MHz to 8.4 GHz to within a factor of two on average, though larger discrepancies are seen at the very bright fluxes at higher frequencies. We use this model to understand how the radio continuum emission from radio-quiet AGNs can affect the measured RLFs of galaxies. We find current methods to exclude AGNs from observational samples result in large fractions of radio-quiet AGNs contaminating the ‘star-forming galaxies’ selection and a brighter end to the resulting RLFs.We investigate how this effects the infrared-radio correlation (IRRC) and show that AGN contamination can lead to evolution of the IRRC with redshift. Without this contamination our model predicts a redshift- and stellar mass-independent IRRC, except at the dwarf-galaxy regime.

Quenching massive galaxies across cosmic time with the semi-analytic model Shark v2.0

Abstract We introduce version 2.0 of the Shark semi-analytic model of galaxy formation after many improvements to the physics included. The most significant being: (i) a model describing the exchange of angular momentum (AM) between the interstellar medium and stars; (ii) a new active galactic nuclei feedback model which has two modes, a wind and a jet mode, with the jet mode tied to the jet energy production; (iii) a model tracking the development of black hole (BH) spins; (iv) more sophisticated modelling of environmental effects on satellite galaxies; and (v) automatic parameter exploration using Particle Swarm Optimisation. We focus on two timely research topics: the structural properties of galaxies and the quenching of massive galaxies. For the former, Shark v2.0 is capable of producing a more realistic stellar size-mass relation with a plateau marking the transition from disk- to bulge-dominated galaxies, and scaling relations between specific AM and mass that agree well with observations. For the quenching of massive galaxies, Shark v2.0 produces massive galaxies that are more quenched than the previous version, reproducing well the observed relations between star formation rate (SFR) and stellar mass, and specific SFR and BH mass at z = 0. Shark v2.0 produces a number density of massive-quiescent galaxies >1 dex higher than the previous version, in good agreement with JWST observations at z ≤ 5; predicts a stellar mass function of passive galaxies in reasonably good agreement with observations at 0.5 < z < 5; and environmental quenching to already be effective at z = 5.

Modeling Molecular Hydrogen in Low-metallicity Galaxies

We use a suite of hydrodynamics simulations of the interstellar medium (ISM) within a galactic disk, which includes radiative transfer, a nonequilibrium model of molecular hydrogen, and a realistic model for star formation and feedback, to study the structure of the ISM and H2 abundance as a function of local ISM properties. We show that the star formation rate and structure of the ISM are sensitive to the metallicity of the gas with a progressively smoother density distribution with decreasing metallicity. In addition to the well-known trend of the H I–H 2 transition shifting to higher densities with decreasing metallicity, the maximum achieved molecular fraction in the ISM drops drastically at Z ≲ 0.2 Z ⊙ as the formation time of H2 becomes much longer than a typical lifetime of dense regions of the ISM. We present accurate fitting formulae for both volumetric and projected fH2 measured on different scales as a function of gas metallicity, UV radiation field, and gas density. We show that when the formulae are applied to the patches in the simulated galaxy, the overall molecular gas mass is reproduced to better than a factor of ≲1.5 across the entire range of metallicities and scales. We also show that the presented fit is considerably more accurate than any of the previous fH2 models and fitting formulae in the low-metallicity regime. The fit can thus be used for modeling molecular gas in low-resolution simulations and semi-analytic models of galaxy formation in the dwarf and high-redshift regimes.

Super-Eddington accretion in high-redshift black holes and the emergence of jetted AGN

Abstract In this work we study the co-evolution of central black holes (BHs) and host galaxies by utilizing an advanced iteration of the DELPHI semi-analytical model of galaxy formation and evolution. Based on dark matter halo merger trees spanning the redshift range from z = 20 to z = 4, it now incorporates essential components such as gas heating and cooling, cold and hot BH accretion, jet and radiative AGN feedback. We show how different BH growth models impact quasar and galaxy observables at z ≥ 5, providing predictions that will help discriminate between super-Eddington and Eddington-limited accretion models: despite being both consistent with observed properties of SMBHs and their host galaxies at z ∼ 5 − 7, they become very clearly distinguishable at higher redshift and in the intermediate mass regime. We find that the super-Eddington model, unlike the Eddington-limited scenario, predicts a gap in the BH mass function corresponding to the intermediate-mass range 104 M⊙ < Mbh < 106 M⊙. Additionally, it predicts black holes up to two orders of magnitude more massive for the same stellar mass at z = 9. The resulting velocity dispersion – BH mass relation at z ≥ 5 is consistent with local measurements, suggesting that its slope and normalisation are independent of redshift. Depending on the Eddington ratio, we also model the emergence of AGN jets, predicting their duty cycle across as a function of BH mass and their potential impact on the observed number density distribution of high-redshift AGN in the hard X-ray band.

An improved halo occupation distribution prescription from UNITsim Hα emission-line galaxies: conformity and modified radial profile

ABSTRACT Emission-line galaxies (ELGs) are targeted by the new generation of spectroscopic surveys to make unprecedented measurements in cosmology from their distribution. Accurately interpreting these data require understanding the imprints imposed by the physics of galaxy formation and evolution on galaxy clustering. In this work, we utilize a semi-analytical model of galaxy formation (sage) to explore the necessary components for accurately reproducing the clustering of ELGs. We focus on developing a halo occupation distribution (HOD) prescription able to reproduce the clustering of sage galaxies. Typically, HOD models assume that satellite and central galaxies of a given type are independent events. We investigate the need for conformity, i.e. whether the average satellite occupation depends on the existence of a central galaxy of a given type. Incorporating conformity into HOD models is crucial for reproducing the clustering in the reference galaxy sample. Another aspect we investigate is the radial distribution of satellite galaxies within haloes. The traditional density profile models, Navarro–Frenk–White (NFW) and Einasto profiles, fail to accurately replicate the small-scale clustering measured for sage satellite galaxies. To overcome this limitation, we propose a generalization of the NFW profile, thereby enhancing our understanding of galaxy clustering.

Simulating emission line galaxies for the next generation of large-scale structure surveys

ABSTRACT We investigate emission line galaxies across cosmic time by combining the modified L-Galaxies semi-analytical galaxy formation model with the JiuTian cosmological simulation. We improve the tidal disruption model of satellite galaxies in L-Galaxies to address the time dependence problem. We utilize the public code cloudy to compute emission line ratios for a grid of H ii region models. The emission line models assume the same initial mass function as that used to generate the spectral energy distribution of semi-analytical galaxies, ensuring a coherent treatment for modelling the full galaxy spectrum. By incorporating these emission line ratios with galaxy properties, we reproduce observed luminosity functions for H α, H β, [O ii], and [O iii] in the local Universe and at high redshifts. We also find good agreement between model predictions and observations for autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions of [O ii]-selected galaxies, as well as their luminosity dependence. The bias of emission line galaxies depends on both luminosity and redshift. At lower redshifts, it remains constant with increasing luminosity up to around $\sim 10^{42.5}\, {\rm erg\, s^{-1}}$ and then rises steeply for higher luminosities. The transition luminosity increases with redshift and becomes insignificant above z = 1.5. Generally, galaxy bias shows an increasing trend with redshift. However, for luminous galaxies, the bias is higher at low redshifts, as the strong luminosity dependence observed at low redshifts diminishes at higher redshifts. We provide a fitting formula for the bias of emission line galaxies as a function of luminosity and redshift, which can be utilized for large-scale structure studies with future galaxy surveys.

The PAU Survey: a new constraint on galaxy formation models using the observed colour redshift relation

Abstract We use the GALFORM semi-analytical galaxy formation model implemented in the Planck Millennium N-body simulation to build a mock galaxy catalogue on an observer’s past lightcone. The mass resolution of this N-body simulation is almost an order of magnitude better than in previous simulations used for this purpose, allowing us to probe fainter galaxies and hence build a more complete mock catalogue at low redshifts. The high time cadence of the simulation outputs allows us to make improved calculations of galaxy properties and positions in the mock. We test the predictions of the mock against the Physics of the Accelerating Universe Survey, a narrow band imaging survey with highly accurate and precise photometric redshifts, which probes the galaxy population over a lookback time of 8 billion years. We compare the model against the observed number counts, redshift distribution and evolution of the observed colours and find good agreement; these statistics avoid the need for model-dependent processing of the observations. The model produces red and blue populations that have similar median colours to the observations. However, the bimodality of galaxy colours in the model is stronger than in the observations. This bimodality is reduced on including a simple model for errors in the GALFORM photometry. We examine how the model predictions for the observed galaxy colours change when perturbing key model parameters. This exercise shows that the median colours and relative abundance of red and blue galaxies provide constraints on the strength of the feedback driven by supernovae used in the model.

Semi-analytic modelling of Pop. III star formation and metallicity evolution - I. Impact on the UV luminosity functions at z = 9 − 16

Abstract We implemented Population III (Pop. III) star formation in mini-halos within the meraxes semi-analytic galaxy formation and reionisation model, run on top of a N-body simulation with L = 10h−1 cMpc with 20483 particles resolving all dark matter halos down to the mini-halos (∼105M⊙). Our modelling includes the chemical evolution of the IGM, with metals released through supernova-driven bubbles that expand according to the Sedov-Taylor model. We found that SN-driven metal bubbles are generally small, with radii typically of 150 ckpc at z = 6. Hence, the majority of the first galaxies are likely enriched by their own star formation. However, as reionization progresses, the feedback effects from the UV background become more pronounced, leading to a halt in star formation in low-mass galaxies, after which external chemical enrichment becomes more relevant. We explore the sensitivity of the star formation rate density and stellar mass functions on the unknown values of free parameters. We also discuss the observability of Pop. III dominated systems with JWST, finding that the inclusion of Pop. III galaxies can have a significant effect on the total UV luminosity function at z = 12 − 16. Our results support the idea that the excess of bright galaxies detected with JWST might be explained by the presence of bright top-heavy Pop. III dominated galaxies without requiring an increased star formation efficiency.

Massive black hole binaries as sources of low-frequency gravitational waves and X-shaped radio galaxies

ABSTRACT We present the study of multimessenger signatures of massive black hole (MBH) binaries residing in the centres of galaxy merger remnants. In particular, we first focus on the gravitational wave background (GWB) produced by an ensemble of MBH binary inspirals in the frequency range probed by the Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments. The improved estimates of the characteristic strain were obtained with the inclusion of environmental effects on the MBH binary orbital decay within the galaxy merger remnants, added in post-processing to the semi-analytical model of galaxy formation and evolution SHARK. Secondly, we explore two, intriguing in terms of the MBH binary evolution studies, hypotheses aiming to explain the origins of X-shaped radio galaxies – a peculiar type of objects with double lobe structures, constituting approximately 6–10 per cent of known radio loud galaxies. The two considered scenarios involve either an abrupt change in the jet direction after an MBH merger (a spin-flip) or an unresolved close binary, where each of the two components produces a jet. We find that the estimated GWB amplitude at the reference frequency $f_0=1 \, {\rm yr}^{-1}$ is in the range of $A_{\rm { yr^{-1}}} = 1.20\times 10^{-15}{\!-\!}1.46\times 10^{-15}$, which is 50 per cent lower than the strain of the signal detected by the PTA experiments. We also show that the spin-flip scenario considered in gas-poor mergers reproduces the observed properties of X-shaped radio galaxies well in terms of flip angle, redshift, and luminosity distributions.

Galaxy catalogs from the Sage Semi-Analytic Model calibrated on The Three Hundred hydrodynamical simulations: A method to push the limits toward lower mass galaxies in dark matter only clusters simulations

The new generation of upcoming deep photometric and spectroscopic surveys will allow us to measure the astrophysical properties of faint galaxies in massive clusters. This would demand to produce simulations of galaxy clusters with better mass resolution than the ones available today if we want to make comparisons between the upcoming observations and predictions of cosmological models. But producing full-physics hydrodynamical simulations of the most massive clusters is not an easy task. This would involve billions of computational elements to reliably resolve low mass galaxies similar to those measured in observations. On the other hand, dark matter only simulations of cluster size halos can be done with much larger mass resolution but at the cost of having to apply a model that populate galaxies within each of the subhalos in these simulations. In this paper we present the results of a new set of dark matter only simulations with different mass resolutions within the The Three Hundred project. We have generated catalogs of galaxies with stellar and luminosity properties by applying the Sage Semi-Analytical Model of galaxy formation. To obtain the catalogs consistent with the results from hydrodynamical simulations, the internal physical parameters of Sage were calibrated with the Particle Swarm Optimization method using a subset of full-physics runs with the same mass resolution than the dark matter only ones.

Dark-ages reionization and galaxy formation simulation – XXI. Constraining the evolution of the ionizing escape fraction

ABSTRACT The fraction of ionizing photons that escape their host galaxies to ionize hydrogen in the intergalactic medium (IGM) is a critical parameter in analyses of the reionization era. In this paper, we use the meraxes semi-analytic galaxy formation model to infer the mean ionizing photon escape fraction and its dependence on galaxy properties through joint modelling of the observed high redshift galaxy population and existing constraints on the reionization history. Using a Bayesian framework, and under the assumption that escape fraction is primarily related to halo mass, we find that the joint constraints of the ultraviolet luminosity function, cosmic microwave background optical depth, and the Ly α forest require an escape fraction of $(18\pm 5)$ per cent for galaxies within haloes of M ≲ 109 M⊙ and $(5\pm 2)$ per cent for more massive haloes. In terms of galaxy properties, this transition in escape fraction occurs at stellar masses of M⋆ ∼ 107 M⊙, nearly independent of redshift. As a function of redshift, reionization is dominated by the smaller M⋆ ≲ 107 M⊙ galaxies with high escape fractions at z ≳ 6 and by the larger M⋆ ≳ 107 M⊙ galaxies with lower escape fractions at z ≲ 6. Galaxies with star formation rates of 10−2.5 M⊙yr−1 to 10−1.5 M⊙yr−1 provide the dominant source of ionizing photons throughout reionization. Our results are consistent with recent direct measurements of a $\sim 5~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ escape fraction from massive galaxies at the end of reionization and support the picture of low mass galaxies being the dominant sources of ionizing photons during reionization.

Exploring the multiband gravitational wave background with a semi-analytic galaxy formation model

ABSTRACT An enormous number of compact binary systems, spanning from stellar to supermassive levels, emit substantial gravitational waves during their final evolutionary stages, thereby creating a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB). We calculate the merger rates of stellar compact binaries and massive black hole binaries using a semi-analytic galaxy formation model – Galaxy Assembly with Binary Evolution (GABE) – in a unified and self-consistent approach, followed by an estimation of the multiband SGWB contributed by those systems. We find that the amplitudes of the principal peaks of the SGWB energy density are within one order of magnitude ΩGW ∼ 10−9–10−8. This SGWB could easily be detected by the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), as well as by the planned interferometric detectors, such as the Einstein Telescope and the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). The energy density of this background varies as ΩGW ∝ f2/3 in the SKA band. The shape of the SGWB spectrum in the frequency range ∼[10−4,1] Hz could allow the LISA to distinguish the black hole seed models. The amplitude of the SGWB from merging stellar binary black holes at ∼100 Hz is approximately 10 and 100 times greater than those from merging binary neutron stars and neutron-star–black-hole mergers, respectively. Note that, since the cosmic star formation rate density predicted by GABE is somewhat lower than the observational results by ∼0.2 dex at z < ∼2, the amplitude of the SGWB in the frequency range ∼[1, 104] Hz may be underestimated by a similar factor at most.

Compact groups from semi-analytical models of galaxy formation – V. Their assembly channels as a function of the environment

ABSTRACT We delved into the assembly pathways and environments of compact groups (CGs) of galaxies using mock catalogues generated from semi-analytical models (SAMs) on the Millennium simulation. We investigate the ability of SAMs to replicate the observed CG environments and whether CGs with different assembly histories tend to inhabit specific cosmic environments. We also analyse whether the environment or the assembly history is more important in tailoring CG properties. We find that about half of the CGs in SAMs are non-embedded systems, 40 per cent are inhabiting loose groups or nodes of filaments, while the rest distribute evenly in filaments and voids, in agreement with observations. We observe that early-assembled CGs preferentially inhabit large galaxy systems ($\sim 60~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$), while around 30 per cent remain non-embedded. Conversely, lately formed CGs exhibit the opposite trend. We also obtain that lately formed CGs have lower velocity dispersions and larger crossing times than early-formed CGs, but mainly because they are preferentially non-embedded. Those lately formed CGs that inhabit large systems do not show the same features. Therefore, the environment plays a strong role in these properties for lately formed CGs. Early-formed CGs are more evolved, displaying larger velocity dispersions, shorter crossing times, and more dominant first-ranked galaxies, regardless of the environment. Finally, the difference in brightness between the two brightest members of CGs is dependent only on the assembly history and not on the environment. CGs residing in diverse environments have undergone varied assembly processes, making them suitable for studying their evolution and the interplay of nature and nurture on their traits.

The Intracluster Light and Its Link with the Dynamical State of the Host Group/Cluster: The Role of the Halo Concentration

We investigate the role of halo concentration in the formation of intracluster light (ICL) in galaxy groups and clusters, as predicted by a state-of-the-art semianalytic model of galaxy formation, coupled with a set of high-resolution dark-matter-only simulations. The analysis focuses on how the fraction of ICL correlates with halo mass, concentration, and fraction of early-type galaxies (ETGs) in a large sample of groups and clusters with . The fraction of ICL follows a normal distribution, a consequence of the stochastic nature of the physical processes responsible for the formation of the diffuse light. The fractional budget of ICL depends on both halo mass (very weakly) until group scales, and concentration (remarkably). More interestingly, the ICL fraction is higher in more concentrated objects, a result of the stronger tidal forces acting in the innermost regions of the halos where the concentration is the quantity playing the most relevant role. Our model predictions do not show any dependence between the ICL and ETGs fractions, and so we instead suggest the concentration rather than the mass, as recently claimed, to be the main driver of the ICL formation. The diffuse light starts to form in groups via stellar stripping and mergers and later assembled in more-massive objects. However, the formation and assembly keep going on group/cluster scales at lower redshift through the same processes, mainly via stellar stripping in the vicinity of the central regions where tidal forces are stronger.

The Galaxy Number Density Profile of Halos

More precise measurements of galaxy clustering will be provided by the next generation of galaxy surveys, such as DESI, WALLABY, and the Square Kilometre Array. To utilize this information to improve our understanding of the Universe, we need to accurately model the distribution of galaxies in their host dark matter halos. In this work, we present a new galaxy number density profile of halos, which makes predictions for the positions of galaxies in the host halo, different to the widely adopted Navarro–Frenk–White (NFW) profile, since galaxies tend to be found more in the outskirts of halos (nearer the virial radius) than an NFW profile. The parameterized galaxy number density profile model of halos is fit and tested using the Dark Sage semi-analytic model of galaxy formation. We find that our galaxy number density profile model of halos can accurately reproduce the halo occupation distribution and galaxy two-point correlation function of the Dark Sage simulation. We also derive the analytic expressions for the circular velocity and gravitational potential energy for this profile model. We use the SDSS Data Release 10 galaxy group catalog to validate this galaxy number density profile model of halos. Compared to the NFW profile, we find that our model more accurately predicts the positions of galaxies in their host halo and the galaxy two-point correlation function.

Dwarf galaxy archaeology from chemical abundances and star-formation histories

ABSTRACT We model the stellar abundances and ages of two disrupted dwarf galaxies in the Milky Way stellar halo: Gaia-Sausage Enceladus (GSE) and Wukong/LMS-1. Using a statistically robust likelihood function, we fit one-zone models of galactic chemical evolution with exponential infall histories to both systems, deriving e-folding time-scales of τin = 1.01 ± 0.13 Gyr for GSE and $\tau _\text{in} = 3.08^{+3.19}_{-1.16}$ Gyr for Wukong/LMS-1. GSE formed stars for $\tau _\text{tot} = 5.40^{+0.32}_{-0.31}$ Gyr, sustaining star formation for ∼1.5–2 Gyr after its first infall into the Milky Way ∼10 Gyr ago. Our fit suggests that star formation lasted for $\tau _\text{tot} = 3.36^{+0.55}_{-0.47}$ Gyr in Wukong/LMS-1, though our sample does not contain any age measurements. The differences in evolutionary parameters between the two are qualitatively consistent with trends with stellar mass M⋆ predicted by simulations and semi-analytic models of galaxy formation. Our inferred values of the outflow mass-loading factor reasonably match $\eta \propto M_\star ^{-1/3}$ as predicted by galactic wind models. Our fitting method is based only on Poisson sampling from an evolutionary track and requires no binning of the data. We demonstrate its accuracy by testing against mock data, showing that it accurately recovers the input model across a broad range of sample sizes (20 ≤ N ≤ 2000) and measurement uncertainties (0.01 ≤ σ[α/Fe], σ[Fe/H] ≤ 0.5; $0.02 \le \sigma _{\log _{10}(\text{age})} \le 1$). Due to the generic nature of our derivation, this likelihood function should be applicable to one-zone models of any parametrization and easily extensible to other astrophysical models which predict tracks in some observed space.

Compact groups from semi-analytical models of galaxy formation – IV: Effect of group assembly on the evolution of their galaxies

ABSTRACT Using over 3000 compact groups (CGs) of galaxies extracted from mock catalogues built from semi-analytical models (SAMs) of galaxy formation, we study whether the CG assembly channel affects the z = 0 properties of galaxies and their evolution. The evolution of CG galaxy properties with time is a clear function of their stellar masses. For instance, high-stellar-mass CG galaxies have lived their last 8 Gyr with little cold gas content while maintaining their reservoir of hot gas, while low-mass CG galaxies still preserve some of their cold gas content at the present but they have completely drained their hot gas reservoir. Beyond that, we find that the evolution of CG galaxies is also a function of the assembly history of the CGs: with more extreme losses of gas content, faster mass gain rates for black holes and more marked suppression of star formation as a function of cosmic time as we go from recent to early CG assembly. Thus, CGs constitute another laboratory for galaxy assembly bias, as the later assembling groups have later star formation. Our results show that classifying CGs according to their assembly channel is a way of distinguishing different paths by which galaxies transform their properties throughout their history.

The MillenniumTNG Project: semi-analytic galaxy formation models on the past lightcone

ABSTRACT Upcoming large galaxy surveys will subject the standard cosmological model, Lambda Cold Dark Matter, to new precision tests. These can be tightened considerably if theoretical models of galaxy formation are available that can predict galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing on the full range of measurable scales, throughout volumes as large as those of the surveys, and with sufficient flexibility that uncertain aspects of the underlying astrophysics can be marginalized over. This, in particular, requires mock galaxy catalogues in large cosmological volumes that can be directly compared to observation, and can be optimized empirically by Monte Carlo Markov Chains or other similar schemes, thus eliminating or estimating parameters related to galaxy formation when constraining cosmology. Semi-analytic galaxy formation methods implemented on top of cosmological dark matter simulations offer a computationally efficient approach to construct physically based and flexibly parametrized galaxy formation models, and as such they are more potent than still faster, but purely empirical models. Here, we introduce an updated methodology for the semi-analytic L-Galaxies code, allowing it to be applied to simulations of the new MillenniumTNG project, producing galaxies directly on fully continuous past lightcones, potentially over the full sky, out to high redshift, and for all galaxies more massive than $\sim 10^8\, {\rm M}_\odot$. We investigate the numerical convergence of the resulting predictions, and study the projected galaxy clustering signals of different samples. The new methodology can be viewed as an important step towards more faithful forward-modelling of observational data, helping to reduce systematic distortions in the comparison of theory to observations.

Uchuu–ν2GC galaxies and AGN: cosmic variance forecasts of high-redshift AGN for JWST, Euclid, and LSST

ABSTRACT Measurements of the luminosity function of active galactic nuclei (AGN) at high redshift (z ≳ 6) are expected to suffer from field-to-field variance, including cosmic and Poisson variances. Future surveys, such as those from the Euclid telescope and JWST, will also be affected by field variance. We use the Uchuu simulation, a state-of-the-art cosmological N-body simulation with 2.1 trillion particles in a volume of 25.7 Gpc3, combined with a semi-analytic galaxy and AGN formation model, to generate the Uchuu–ν2GC catalogue, publicly available, that allows us to investigate the field-to-field variance of the luminosity function of AGN. With this Uchuu–ν2GC model, we quantify the cosmic variance as a function of survey area, AGN luminosity, and redshift. In general, cosmic variance decreases with increasing survey area and decreasing redshift. We find that at z ∼ 6 − 7, the cosmic variance depends weakly on AGN luminosity. This is because the typical mass of dark matter haloes in which AGN reside does not significantly depend on luminosity. Due to the rarity of AGN, Poisson variance dominates the total field-to-field variance, especially for bright AGN. We also examine the effect of parameters related to galaxy formation physics on the field variance. We discuss uncertainties present in the estimation of the faint-end of the AGN luminosity function from recent observations, and extend this to make predictions for the expected number of AGN and their variance for upcoming observations with Euclid, JWST, and the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST).