Initiating and maintaining physical activity is particularly difficult for at-risk groups such as those with chronic low back pain (LBP). This study aimed to assess whether there is a relationship between perceived social support (e.g., emotional and physical support) in individuals recently discharged from treatment for chronic LBP and the number of exercise sessions and total amount of exercise they perform over a 6-month period. This study also aimed to investigate a possible mediation effect of exercise self-efficacy on the relationship between perceived social support and exercise adherence (number of exercise sessions and total amount of exercise). This prognostic study employed a secondary analysis of data collected for The Buddy Study; Data was collected through online weekly diaries over a 6-month period. Poisson regression analyses were used to quantify the relationship between social support at baseline and total number of exercise sessions, and total amount of exercise performed (frequency and duration) in the 6-month follow-up period. Where a relationship was observed, the Stata SEM command was used for the mediation analysis. A positive relationship was found between participants' perceived levels of social support at baseline and the total number of exercise sessions they performed (IRR = 1.56, 95%CI: 1.18 to 2.06) and the total amount of exercise they performed (IRR = 1.57, 95%CI: 1.05 to 2.35) during the 6-month follow-up period. No mediating relationship was found between exercise self-efficacy at 3-months and the total number of exercise sessions performed (β 3.96, 95% CI: -4.91 to 12.84), or the total amount of exercise performed (β 243.96, 95% CI: -258.08 to 746.01). Social support is potentially an important aspect of exercise adherence, following discharge from treatment, for those with chronic LBP. People's self-efficacy to exercise does not appear to mediate this relationship. Harnessing social support following physiotherapy treatment may increase exercise adherence and may therefore improve long term outcomes for those with chronic LBP.
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