Self-determination Conflicts Research Articles

Within Ethnic Population Inequality and within Self-Determination Movement Violence

Dual bargaining commonly characterizes a number of self-determination (SD) conflicts. SD organizations making self-determination claims contest the state but also contest rival SD organizations. This article examines variation in SD organization violence against other SD organizations. It hypothesizes that (i) higher levels of ethnic population inequality (WPI) are pivotal for explaining violence between SD organizations, and (ii) the relationship occurs at higher rates when an SD organization in the SD movement has previously used violence against the state. Survey-based data on WPI from 1992 to 2005 and SD organization violence demonstrate that higher WPI associates with an increased probability of an SD organization using violence against other SD organizations. The association is driven by situations in which an SD organization within the SD movement previously used violence against the state. The findings are robust to secondary analysis at the ethnic group level, inclusion of additional covariates, sensitivity tests for omitted variable bias, various model specifications, subset analyses, matching techniques and tests for reverse causality. This article demonstrates that ethnic population inequality levels as well as SD organization interactions with the state may have meaningful consequences for violent behavior between SD organizations.

Introducing MACEDA: New micro-data on an indigenous self-determination conflict

This article introduces MACEDA, a micro-level dataset on the self-determination (SD) conflict between the Chilean state and the indigenous Mapuche. Although SD disputes are one of the most common conflicts in the world, and indigenous movements represent about 40% of all SD movements, this is the first micro-dataset focused on an indigenous SD conflict. MACEDA covers the period 1990–2016, including more than 2,600 events collected from local media. As indigenous conflicts are much less violent in terms of casualties, we take a flexible definition of conflict, based on its constituent events, and we discuss the comparability and generalization of our approach. To illustrate the usefulness of these micro-data in the analysis of conflict-related theories, we present a descriptive empirical analysis on the strategies of indigenous resistance, and we discuss how the data can be used in the causal analysis of conflicts.

Foulweather Friends: Violence and Third Party Support in Self-Determination Conflicts

This paper investigates how violence in self-determination conflicts influences bilateral foreign policy. I argue that a general preference for international stability causes third parties to support self-determination groups when violence reaches high levels, when they gain territorial control, and when major powers officially recognize. In these conditions, third parties perceive a stable new status quo to be nigh: unrecognized statehood. Ongoing instability encourages foreign policy that encourages the development of the de facto state, even when third parties have no intention of recognizing them as states. Importantly, I also show that targeting civilians erodes third-party support of the perpetrating side. I demonstrate these relationships using a latent variable model of international sovereignty of aspiring states, built on bilateral military, diplomatic, and economic exchange data. My model and tests provide new insight into how aspiring state actors become increasingly eligible for recognition through the tacit support of third-party states.

The United Nations, the Political Economy of International Organisations, and Managing Self-Determination Struggles in Africa

Self-determination campaigns remain a critical cause of ethno-linguistic conflicts and resultant humanitarian crises in many countries in Africa and other parts of the world. While the United Nations (UN), its agencies, and the international community at large are ever ready to intervene in humanitarian crises arising from self-determination conflicts, it has remained difficult to adopt criteria and procedures to proactively decide and resolve self-determination campaigns in a way that encourages non-violent approaches, and to nip violent approaches to self-determination agitation in the bud. This article argues that the role of the UN in the maintenance of international peace and security should include adopting certain criteria for implementing its declarations relating to the right to self-determination. The article avers that such measures would better enhance peace and nation-building in Africa than the current approach of non-action, which consists of waiting to intervene in ethno-linguistic conflicts and the consequent humanitarian crises. The article is based on the use of documentary data and desk research.

The Political Use of de facto Referendums of Independence The Case of Catalonia

ABSTRACT Referendums on independence in liberal democracies are rare, even more so when held without the agreement of the central government. On 1 October 2017, a referendum on independence took place in Catalonia despite the opposition of Spanish central authorities and the lack of Constitutional support. This article analyses and attempts to explain this case of a de facto referendum in the international context of independence referendums. We consider both strategic culture and rationality as relevant factors for explaining the political actors' behaviour. Although the political use of popular mobilisation through a referendum to strengthen legitimacy is common among this type of referendums, the Catalan case presents relevant peculiarities since it occurred in a liberal democracy, the civil society were instrumental in making the vote possible, and central authorities repressed both the organisation of the vote and the voters themselves. Our case study analysis can be used in future research on self-determination conflicts and independence referendums.

Acquisition of Legitimacy in Self-Determination Conflicts

We have entered to an era in which the conflicts have become one of the most intensely perceived security problems of the contemporary world. Their nature is usually violent, accompanied by human casualties, which may escalate to humanitarian crises and may cause population migration, the formation of radical groups, economic decline, and eventually the fragmentation threat to the state territorial integrity. As a power-sharing formula, ‘Acquisition of Legitimacy Approach’ as a new Formula for Global Peace and Security Corporation has proposed to assist the State and sub-state entity involved in sovereignty conflicts, and future peace negotiators to identify an emerging approach, which may be well suited to help them in the resolution of their particular conflict. This article will demonstrate that the new formula may be attractive enough to those seeking to exercise the newly recognised right of remedial secession, who have grown unsatisfied with the prospect of simple autonomy. Accordingly, this theory would grant independence and statehood to those peoples that have been labelled as peaceful, that have engaged through peaceful means with the international community to assert their independence, such as Kosovar, Albanians or the East Timorese, would have earned their right to exist as sovereign independent States.

Introducing the Strategies of Resistance Data Project

This article introduces the Strategies of Resistance Data Project (SRDP), a global dataset on organizational behavior in self-determination disputes. This dataset is actor-focused and spans periods of relative peace and violence in self-determination conflicts. By linking tactics to specific actors in broader campaigns for political change, we can better understand how these struggles unfold over time, and the conditions under which organizations use conventional politics, violent tactics, nonviolent tactics, or some combination of these. SRDP comprises 1,124 organizations participating in movements for greater national self-determination around the world, from 1960 to 2005. Despite the fact that few self-determination movements engage in mass nonviolent campaigns, SRDP shows that more organizations employ nonviolent tactics at some point in time (about 40%) than employ violence (about 30%). Many organizations switch among tactics or use both at the same time. This dataset will allow analysts to examine the use of different combinations of tactics and patterns of change. We compare the data with the most-used dataset on nonviolence, the NAVCO 2.0 Data Project, to demonstrate what we gain by employing an organization-level dataset on tactics. We present a set of descriptive analyses highlighting the utility of the SRDP, including an examination of tactic switching. We show that more organizations change from violence to nonviolence than the reverse – challenging the widely held assumption that organizations ‘resort’ to violence. SRDP allows scholars to examine organizational choices about tactics, and trends in these tactics, with much greater nuance.

Toward a Multi-Causal Model of Successful Conflict Regulation through Territorial Self-Government: Lessons from South Tyrol

Territorial autonomies have been increasingly implemented as tools for the regulation of ethnic self-determination conflicts. Recent literature has primarily focused on the debate about the general conflict-solving potential of territorial self-government in multi-ethnic societies. However, autonomy consolidation is not an entirely endogenous process, but affected by various structural and actor-centered factors. Previous studies have so far given unsatisfactory answers as to the conditions under which reforms of autonomy succeed or fail in post-conflict situations. Building on Social Identity Theory, it is argued that ethnic recognition is the all-important condition for autonomy consolidation, which, however, presupposes specific, favorable framework conditions. A high scope of transferred competencies, weak horizontal inequalities, democratic-inclusive institutions, minority-friendly parties, and international engagement are identified as pivotal factors supporting the process of mutual recognition between ethnic groups. To test our theoretical assumptions, we create a multi-causal process model. We find evidence for the proposed mechanisms in a process-tracing case study on South Tyrols successful autonomy consolidation.

Foulweather Friends: Violence and Third-Party Support in Self-Determination Conflicts

This paper investigates how violence in self-determination conflicts influences bilateral foreign policy. I argue that a general preference for international stability causes third parties to support self-determination groups when violence reaches high levels, when they gain territorial control, and when major powers officially recognize. In these conditions, third parties perceive a stable new status quo to be nigh: unrecognized statehood. Ongoing instability encourages foreign policy that encourages the development of the de facto state, even when third parties have no intention of recognizing them as states. Importantly, I also show that targeting civilians erodes third-party support of the perpetrating side. I demonstrate these relationships using a latent variable model of international sovereignty of aspiring states, built on bilateral military, diplomatic, and economic exchange data. My model and tests provide new insight into how aspiring state actors become increasingly eligible for recognition through the tacit support of third-party states.

To the Resolution of Intractable Conflicts: Nagorno-Karabakh and Kosovo

Self-determination conflicts remain among the most complicated issues of the international negotiations, and they require long-term efforts. They often transform into intractable conflicts, the theory of which plays more informative role rather than contributes to their solution. The solution is difficult not only because it is a complex inter-disciplinary task, but also because very often it is necessary to involve mediation. The mediators, carrying out often their direct mission, create also new problems due to the interests of related countries. In order to reveal the reasons behind the current problems comparative analysis of Nagorno-Karabakh and Kosovo conflicts has been done. A new paradigm and based on it a new strategy of international negotiations over conflict resolution are proposed, which will allow to significantly increase the efficiency of negotiations, to find solutions for intractable conflicts and prevent the emergence of new ones.

Conflict resolution attempts in self-determination disputes: the significance of local minority groups concerns in the Philippines and Sri Lanka

The way in which the minority within minority question is solved has implications for settlement of self-determination conflicts. This paper examines how this question plays out in connection with negotiations of peace agreements. It focuses on the negotiations on the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity in the Philippines in 2008 and the Fifth Peace Process in Sri Lanka in 2002–06. By analysing constitutional design options in terms of integration, power sharing and power dividing, it outlines how minority concerns are articulated and eventually how they have implications for negotiations. The absence of power-sharing guarantees was a major concern among elites not associated with the self-determination project, both at the national and the local level. They blocked implementation of the deals, insisting instead on integration and power dividing. These findings highlight the shortcomings of negotiations that overlook the multifaceted majority/minority conflicts at national and local levels and how they are interlinked.

Complex Power-sharing and the Centrality of Territorial Self-governance in Contemporary Conflict Settlements

This article contends that three key characteristics in the context of self-determination conflicts are crucial in determining the institutional design of their settlement: the compactness of groups' settlement patterns in a given state; the degree of ethnic heterogeneity in the territorial entities to which powers and competences of self-governance are to be assigned; and their significance relative to the rest of the state, leading to three core elements of institutional design that are variably present—territorial self-governance, and local and central power-sharing are variably part of conflict settlements. Examining 18 individual cases of post-Cold War conflict settlements across 13 countries in Africa, Asia and Europe, the article finds these assumptions to be largely correct and concludes with a number of suggestions for further theoretical and empirical investigation.

Settling Self-determination Conflicts: Recent Developments

Self-determination conflicts outside the colonial context have previously appeared virtually impossible to settle. Long-running and very destructive internal armed conflicts have been the result. Since the termination of the Cold War, however, there has been a veritable wave of self-determination settlements. While some of these trade the claim to secession for internal autonomy in order to safeguard the territorial unity of the state, a number of innovative solutions have been adopted, going beyond this traditional approach. This article reviews over 40 settlements and draft settlements in order to identify an emerging post-modern pattern of practice of settling self-determination disputes. The article also assesses the impact of this practice on the classical, restrictive understanding of the doctrine of self-determination.

Learning the Lessons of Ethnic Conflict Management? Conditional Recognition and International Administration in the Western Balkans since the 1990s

The unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo in February 2008 catapulted the Western Balkans back to the centre stage of international security concerns. Despite affirmations to the contrary, the recognition of Kosovo's independence by major Western powers is seen as a significant precedent in international law and the way in which self-determination conflicts are handled by the international community. At the same time, it raises major questions for the stability of borders across the Western Balkans region, and possibly beyond. At the centre of many of these questions is the role of the international community—defined by the international and regional organizations present in the region, as well as by their powerful member states—in tackling the complexity of interrelated self-determination conflicts, incomplete democratization processes, growing concerns about the economic viability of the successor states of the former Yugoslavia and an ever-increasing presence of transnational organized crime networks with significant reach beyond the region.

Pakistan's Changing Outlook on Kashmir

Having remained wedded to Kashmir as an ‘armed self-determination conflict’ for over five decades, Pakistan under General Pervez Musharraf seems to be changing course in favour of a diplomatic settlement that would be acceptable to India, Pakistan and the Kashmiris. This changing Pakistani outlook on Kashmir is clearly reflected in President Musharraf ’s advocacy of a four-point proposal which seeks a settlement of the Kashmir dispute outside the framework of UN resolutions. This article describes key elements of Islamabad's new thinking on Kashmir, analyses some of the domestic, regional and global factors underpinning this change and concludes by noting some of the domestic challenges faced by Musharraf in effectively pursuing his out of the box thinking on Kashmir.

PAKISTAN'S CHANGING OUTLOOK ON KASHMIR

Having remained vvedded to Kashmir as an "armed self-determination conflict" for över fîve decades, Pakistan under General Pervez Musharraf seems to be changing course in favor of a diplomatic settlement that vvould be acceptable to India, Pakistan and the Kashmiris. This changing Pakistani outlook on Kashmir is clearly reflected in President Musharrafs advocacy of a four point proposal vvhich seeks a settlement of the Kashmir dispute outside the framevvork of UN resolutions. This article describes key elements of Islamabad's nevv thinking on Kashmir, analyses some of the domestic, regional and global factors underpinning this change and concludes by noting some of the domestic challenges faced by Musharraf in efîfectively pursuing his out of the box thinking on Kashmir.

Mediating Rights-Based Conflicts: Making Self-Determination Negotiable

AbstractHow can the international community more effectively prevent self-determination conflicts from escalating to violence? The most useful way is to make such conflicts "negotiable," rather than standing by while minority groups and governments square off against each other. To do this, the international community must (1) understand what causes the parties to choose violence; (2) understand the dynamics that make such conflicts intractable, including the rights claims; and (3) design interventions that create more favorable conditions for minority groups and governments to negotiate rather than fight. Drawing upon the analysis of two major self-determination conflicts, this paper argues that such interventions should: include a clearer statement from official international bodies about the conditions under which secession will be deemed acceptable under international law; provide a mediated process in which minority groups and governments can convene to discuss their concerns and interests; and foster collaboration between official and non-official third parties in these negotiations to draw upon the strengths of both in assisting minority groups and governments to work through their differences.