Selective Extinctions Research Articles

Disparification and extinction trade-offs shaped the evolution of Permian to Jurassic Odonata

Owing to their prevalence in nowadays terrestrial ecosystems, insects are a relevant group to assess the impact of mass extinctions on emerged land. However, limitations of the insect fossil record make it difficult to assess the impact of such events based on taxonomic diversity alone. Therefore, we documented trends in morphological diversity, i.e., disparity, using wings of Permian to Jurassic Odonata as model. Our results show a decreasing trend in disparity while species richness increased. Both the Permian-Triassic and Triassic-Jurassic transitions are revealed as important events, associated with strong morphospace restructuring due to selective extinction. In each case, a recovery was assured by the diversification of new forms compensating the loss of others. Early representatives of Odonata continuously evolved new shapes, a pattern contrasting with the classical assertion of a morphospace fulfilled early and followed by selective extinctions and specialization within it.

Suppressed speciation rates and compositional changes in Paleozoic faunas.

Shifts in the taxonomic composition of Paleozoic communities are commomly ascribed to selective extinctions. Suppression of realized speciation rates owing to shrinkage of available adaptive space (lowering of potential niche number), even though unselective, results in differential diversity losses, the greatest losses being sustained by clades with the highest speciation and extinction rates (the high-turnover caldes). The resulting compositional shifts apear to be selective. Foreclosures of speciation opportunities probably play an important and perhaps in sorne cases a dominant role in taxonomic shifts during the Paleozoic.

Selective extinctions resulting from random habitat destruction lead to under-estimates of local and regional biodiversity loss in a manipulative field experiment.

Land-use change is a significant cause of anthropogenic extinctions, which are likely to continue and accelerate as habitat conversion proceeds in most biomes. One way to understand the effects of habitat loss on biodiversity is through improved tools for predicting the number and identity of species losses in response to habitat loss. There are relatively few methods for predicting extinctions and even fewer opportunities for rigorously assessing the quality of these predictions. In this paper, we address these issues by applying a new method based on rarefaction to predict species losses after random, but aggregated, habitat loss. We compare predictions from three rarefaction models, individual-based, sample-based, and spatially clustered, to those derived from a commonly used extinction estimation method, the species-area relationship (SAR). We apply each method to a mesocosm experiment, in which we aim to predict species richness and extinctions of arthropods immediately following 50% habitat loss. While each model produced strikingly accurate predictions of species richness immediately after the habitat loss disturbance, each model significantly underestimated the number of extinctions occurring at both the local (within-mesocosm) and regional (treatment-wide) scales. Despite the stochastic nature of our small-scale, short-term, and randomly applied habitat loss experiment, we found surprisingly clear evidence for extinction selectivity, for example, when abundant species with low extinction probabilities were extirpated following habitat loss. The important role played by selective extinction even in this contrived experimental system suggests that ecologically driven, trait-based extinctions play an equally important role to stochastic extinction, even when the disturbance itself has no clear selectivity. As a result, neutrally stochastic null models such as the SAR and rarefaction are likely to underestimate extinctions caused by habitat loss. Nevertheless, given the difficulty of predicting extinctions, null models provide useful benchmarks for conservation planning by providing minimum estimates and probabilities of species extinctions.

Breaking ecological barriers: Anthropogenic disturbance leads to habitat transitions, hybridization, and high genetic diversity

Genetic diversity is expected to erode in disturbed habitats through strong selection, local extinctions, and recolonization associated with genetic bottlenecks and restricted gene flow. Despite this general prediction and over three decades of population genetics studies, our understanding of the long-term effect of environmental disturbance on local and regional genetic diversity remains limited. We conducted a population genetic survey of the microcrustacean Daphnia across a landscape subject to anthropogenic stressors from a century of industrial mining. At the local scale we found moderate genetic diversity (i.e., low clonal diversity), characteristic of habitat-specific selective sweeps and local extinctions, but high diversity and strong genetic structure at the regional scale despite the shared watershed of many lakes and exceptional dispersal ability of daphniids. Many habitats experienced changes in species assemblages, with the obligate asexual Daphnia pulex lineages—known only to inhabit ponds—dominating disrupted urban lakes. This habitat transition (pond to lake) was likely facilitated by the disruption of ecological barriers maintaining the genomic separation of these young species. Thus, disrupted habitats can exhibit complex and unexpected genetic patterns of local extinctions and recolonizations, followed by habitat transitions, hybridization and potential speciation events that are difficult to predict and should not be underestimated.

Biotic and abiotic factors driving the diversification dynamics of Crocodylia

AbstractSpecies diversity patterns are governed by complex interactions among biotic and abiotic factors over time and space, but are essentially the result of the diversification dynamics (differential speciation and extinction rates) over the long‐term evolutionary history of a clade. Previous studies have suggested that temporal variation in global temperature drove long‐term diversity changes in Crocodylia, a monophyletic group of large ectothermic organisms. We use a large database of crocodylian fossil occurrences (192 spp.) and body mass estimations, under a taxic approach, to characterize the global diversification dynamics of crocodylians since the Cretaceous, and their correlation with multiple biotic and abiotic factors in a Bayesian framework. The diversification dynamic of crocodylians, which appears to have originated in the Turonian (c. 92.5 Ma), is characterized by several phases with high extinction and speciation rates within a predominantly low long‐term mean rate. Our results reveal long‐term diversification dynamics of Crocodylia to be a highly complex process driven by a combination of biotic and abiotic factors which influenced the speciation and extinction rates in dissimilar ways. Higher crocodylian extinction rates are related to low body mass disparity, indicating selective extinctions of taxa at both ends of the body mass spectrum. Speciation rate slowdowns are noted when the diversity of the clade is high and the warm temperate climatic belt is reduced. Our finding supports the idea that temporal variations of body mass disparity, self‐diversity, and the warm climate belt size provided more direct mechanistic explanations for crocodylian diversification than do proxies of global temperature.

Conservation evidence from climate-related stressors in the deep-time marine fossil record.

Conservation of marine species requires the ability to predict the effects of climate-related stressors in an uncertain future. Experiments and observations in modern settings provide crucial information, but lack temporal scale and cannot anticipate emergent effects during ongoing global change. By contrast, the deep-time fossil record contains the long-term perspective at multiple global change events that can be used, at a broad scale, to test hypothesized effects of climate-related stressors. For example, geologically rapid carbon cycle disruption has often caused crises in reef ecosystems, and selective extinctions support the hypothesis that greater activity levels promote survival. Geographical patterns of extinction and extirpation were more variable than predicted from modern physiology, with tropical and temperate extinction peaks observed at different ancient events. Like any data source, the deep-time record has limitations but also provides opportunities that complement the limitations of modern and historical data. In particular, the deep-time record is the best source of information on actual outcomes of climate-related stressors in natural settings and over evolutionary timescales. Closer integration of modern and deep-time evidence can expand the types of hypotheses testable with the fossil record, yielding better predictions of extinction risk as climate-related stressors continue to intensify in future oceans. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

When are extinctions simply bad luck? Rarefaction as a framework for disentangling selective and stochastic extinctions

Abstract A key challenge in conservation biology is that not all species are equally likely to go extinct when faced with a disturbance, but there are multiple overlapping reasons for such differences in extinction probability. Differences in species extinction risk may represent extinction selectivity, a non‐random process by which species’ risks of extinction are caused by differences in fitness based on traits. Additionally, rare species with low abundances and/or occupancies are more likely to go extinct than common species for reasons of random chance alone, that is, bad luck. Unless ecologists and conservation biologists can disentangle random and selective extinction processes, then the prediction and prevention of future extinctions will continue to be an elusive challenge. We suggest that a modified version of a common null model procedure, rarefaction, can be used to disentangle the influence of stochastic species loss from selective non‐random processes. To this end we applied a rarefaction‐based null model to three published data sets to characterize the influence of species rarity in driving biodiversity loss following three biodiversity loss events: (a) disease‐associated bat declines; (b) disease‐associated amphibian declines; and (c) habitat loss and invasive species‐associated gastropod declines. For each case study, we used rarefaction to generate null expectations of biodiversity loss and species‐specific extinction probabilities. In each of our case studies, we find evidence for both random and non‐random (selective) extinctions. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly considering that some species extinctions are the result of stochastic processes. In other words, we find significant evidence for bad luck in the extinction process. Policy implications. Our results suggest that rarefaction can be used to disentangle random and non‐random extinctions and guide management decisions. For example, rarefaction can be used retrospectively to identify when declines of at‐risk species are likely to result from selectivity, versus random chance. Rarefaction can also be used prospectively to formulate minimum predictions of species loss in response to hypothetical disturbances. Given its minimal data requirements and familiarity among ecologists, rarefaction may be an efficient and versatile tool for identifying and protecting species that are most vulnerable to global extinction.

Extinction and colonisation of habitat specialists drive plant species replacement along a Mediterranean grassland‐forest succession

AbstractQuestionsLand‐use change causes shifts in species richness, which can be delayed. However, beta‐diversity patterns and especially the relative role of species replacement and nestedness in these situations with time‐lagged extinctions and colonisations remain unknown. We aim to (a) quantify beta‐diversity change, species replacement and nestedness for vascular plants along a grassland–forest succession with time‐lagged biodiversity change for more than 50 years; (b) check its consistency between all species, grassland specialists and forest specialists, and (c) identify the role of forest encroachment relative to other drivers.Study sitePrades Mountains, Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula).MethodsWe sampled 18 sites representing a gradient in past and current grassland area and connectivity, and in forest encroachment intensity, to obtain plant composition of all species, grassland specialists and forest specialists. We quantified overall beta‐diversity and its components at each species classification group along the forest encroachment gradient and other drivers. Then, we used general linear models to study (a) the change rate of beta diversity along the forest encroachment gradient and (b) the relative importance of the drivers in explaining beta diversity.ResultsFollowing the forest encroachment gradient, we found an overall noticeable species replacement, while nestedness was the main component for habitat specialists. Landscape differences contributed to explaining most compositional differences (both nestedness and replacement), while soil characteristics and geographic distance had a more restricted contribution.ConclusionsSpecies replacement due to environmental sorting occurred over the succession, triggered by selective extinctions of grassland specialists and selective colonisations of forest specialists. Nonetheless, historical landscape characteristics, current landscape characteristics and geographic distance modulate plant extinctions and colonisations, suggesting biological inertia, mass effects and habitat isolation, respectively. Partitioning beta‐diversity into nestedness and replacement components and exploring the extinction and colonisation patterns of habitat specialist groups might provide relevant insight into the drivers and processes of community shift after land‐use change.

The biogeographical imprint of mass extinctions.

Mass extinctions are defined by extinction rates significantly above background levels and have had substantial consequences for the evolution of life. Geographically selective extinctions, subsequent originations and species redistributions may have changed global biogeographical structure, but quantification of this change is lacking. In order to assess quantitatively the biogeographical impact of mass extinctions, we outline time-traceable bioregions for benthic marine species across the Phanerozoic using a compositional network. Mass extinction events are visually recognizable in the geographical depiction of bioregions. The end-Permian extinction stands out with a severe reduction of provinciality. Time series of biogeographical turnover represent a novel aspect of the analysis of mass extinctions, confirming concentration of changes in the geographical distribution of benthic marine life.

Lubricating and Waxy Esters. VI. Effect of Symmetry about Ester on Crystallization of Linear Monoester Isomers

The crystal structure development of jojoba-like esters incorporating either 1-decenoic acid and/or 1-decenol, namely octadec-9-enyl dec-9-enoate (JLE-281), and its isomer dec-9-enyl oleate (JLE-282) was investigated to reveal the effect of symmetry about the ester group on crystallization of aliphatic fatty monoesters. The phase transformation path was investigated with temperature-time resolved X-ray diffraction during stepped isothermal crystallization, and while cooling from the melt at a fixed rate. Startling differences in phase behavior were uncovered between the isomers. When stepped isothermals were used, selective extinctions occurred at a transition temperature for JLE-281 but not for JLE-282. The extinctions, which are due to dramatic changes in the electronic density of certain families of planes, indicate a phase transition attributed to a brusque rearrangement of the oxygen atoms in the crystal subcell. The phase transition did not occur when the JLEs were cooled continuously. The crucial role played by the position of the alkyl chain and its orientation relative to the easy rotation site of the C–O bond in the phase trajectories of the JLEs was particularly highlighted.

Extinction, Extirpation, and Exotics: Effects on the Correlation between Traits and Environment at the Continental Level

Ecometrics is the study of the relationship between organismal traits and environments. This study used Monte Carlo methods to assess the effects of extinction, extirpation, and exotic species on ecometric correlations at the continental scale. These potentially confounding processes arise from anthropogenic activities, taphonomic biases in fossil assemblages, and selective mass extinctions. Random, independent local extinctions introduced a predictable downward bias in ecometric correlations, which can be corrected by rarefaction if correlations are being estimated from fossil assemblages. Random global extinctions on species have a less predictable effect on ecometric correlations and introduce pronounced effects if more than 25% of the continental fauna is affected; however, global extinctions do not bias the estimation of R2 even though they increase its uncertainty. Selective extinction and introduction of exotic species had little impact on ecometric correlations, though caution is urged in generali...

Radiolarian diversity changes during the Late Cambrian–Early Ordovician transition as recorded in the Cow Head Group of Newfoundland (Canada)

Abstract Upper Cambrian to Lower Ordovician pelagic carbonate rocks of the Cow Head Group in western Newfoundland (Canada) were sampled for the study of their radiolarian fauna. Well-preserved and diverse faunal assemblages were obtained from a number of levels of the Shallow Bay and Green Point formations. Three different assemblages, including a total of five families, eight genera and 20 species, are recognized in three different sections situated on a palaeobathymetric profile. The various recognized assemblages are compared with previous studies conducted on the Cow Head Group; they improve considerably our understanding of the pattern of changes in radiolarian diversity during the Cambrian–Ordovician transition. The Radiolarian biotic record of western Newfoundland unveils a two step faunal change across the Cambrian–Ordovician transitional interval: one situated at the base of the uppermost Cambrian Stage 10 and the second at a poorly constrained interval situated towards the top of the same Stage 10. These biotic changes consist of genus-level selective extinctions, as well as within-clade species faunal turnover (i.e. Echidnina, Paleospiculum), decrease of species abundance, species extinction and within-clade episodes of species diversification (i.e. Protoentactinia, Parechidnina).

EXTINCTION SPACE-A METHOD FOR THE QUANTIFICATION AND CLASSIFICATION OF CHANGES IN MORPHOSPACE ACROSS EXTINCTION BOUNDARIES

Three main modes of extinction are responsible for reductions in morphological disparity: (1) random (caused by a nonselective extinction event); (2) marginal (a symmetric, selective extinction event trimming the margin of morphospace); and (3) lateral (an asymmetric, selective extinction event eliminating one side of the morphospace). These three types of extinction event can be distinguished from one another by comparing changes in three measures of morphospace occupation: (1) the sum of range along the main axes; (2) the sum of variance; and (3) the position of the centroid. Computer simulations of various extinction events demonstrate that the pre-extinction distribution of taxa (random or normal) in the morphospace has little influence on the quantification of disparity changes, whereas the modes of the extinction events play the major role. Together, the three disparity metrics define an "extinction-space" in which different extinction events can be directly compared with one another. Application of this method to selected extinction events (Frasnian-Famennian, Devonian-Carboniferous, and Permian-Triassic) of the Ammonoidea demonstrate the similarity of the Devonian events (selective extinctions) but the striking difference from the end-Permian event (nonselective extinction). These events differ in their mode of extinction despite decreases in taxonomic diversity of similar magnitude.

Anthropogenic extinction threats and future loss of evolutionary history in reef corals.

Extinction always results in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD), but phylogenetically selective extinctions have long been thought to disproportionately reduce PD. Recent simulations show that tree shapes also play an important role in determining the magnitude of PD loss, potentially offsetting the effects of clustered extinctions. While patterns of PD loss under different extinction scenarios are becoming well characterized in model phylogenies, analyses of real clades that often have unbalanced tree shapes remain scarce, particularly for marine organisms. Here, we use a fossil-calibrated phylogeny of all living scleractinian reef corals in conjunction with IUCN data on extinction vulnerabilities to quantify how loss of species in different threat categories will affect the PD of this group. Our analyses reveal that predicted PD loss in corals varies substantially among different threats, with extinctions due to bleaching and disease having the largest negative effects on PD. In general, more phylogenetically clustered extinctions lead to larger losses of PD in corals, but there are notable exceptions; extinction of rare corals from distantly-related old and unique lineages can also result in substantial PD loss. Thus our results show that loss of PD in reef corals is dependent on both tree shape and the nature of extinction threats.

A Comparison of the Effects of Random and Selective Mass Extinctions on Erosion of Evolutionary History in Communities of Digital Organisms

The effect of mass extinctions on phylogenetic diversity and branching history of clades remains poorly understood in paleobiology. We examined the phylogenies of communities of digital organisms undergoing open-ended evolution as we subjected them to instantaneous “pulse” extinctions, choosing survivors at random, and to prolonged “press” extinctions involving a period of low resource availability. We measured age of the phylogenetic root and tree stemminess, and evaluated how branching history of the phylogenetic trees was affected by the extinction treatments. We found that strong random (pulse) and strong selective extinction (press) both left clear long-term signatures in root age distribution and tree stemminess, and eroded deep branching history to a greater degree than did weak extinction and control treatments. The widely-used Pybus-Harvey gamma statistic showed a clear short-term response to extinction and recovery, but differences between treatments diminished over time and did not show a long-term signature. The characteristics of post-extinction phylogenies were often affected as much by the recovery interval as by the extinction episode itself.

End-Permian mass extinction of foraminifers in the Nanpanjiang basin, South China

Newly obtained foraminifer faunas from the Permian-Triassic (P-Tr) transition at the Dajiang and Bianyang sections in the Nanpanjiang Basin, South China, comprise 61 species in 40 genera. They belong to thePalaeofusulina sinensisZone, the youngest Permian foraminifer zone in South China. Quantitative analysis reveals that the last occurrences of more than a half of species (28/54) fall into a 60-cm-interval at the uppermost Changhsingian skeletal packstone unit and thus calibrate the end-Permian extinction to the skeletal packstonecalcimicrobial framestone boundary. About 93% (54/58) of species of the latest Permian assemblage became extinct in the P-Tr crisis. Four major foraminiferal groups, the Miliolida, Fusulinida, Lagenida, and Textulariina, have extinction rates up to 100%, 96%, 92%, and 50%, respectively, and thus experienced selective extinctions. BothHemigordius longusand ?Globivalvulina bulloidestemporarily survived the end-Permian extinction event and extended into the earliest Triassic but became extinct soon after. The post-extinction foraminifer assemblage is characterized by the presence of both disaster taxa and Lazarus taxa. Foraminifer distribution near the P-Tr boundary also reveals that the irregular contact surface at the uppermost Permian may be created by a massive submarine dissolution event, which may be coeval with the end-Permian mass extinction. A new species,Rectostipulina hexamerata,is described here.

Species co‐occurrence, nestedness and guild–environment relationships in stream macroinvertebrates

Summary1. Describing species distribution patterns and the underlying mechanisms is at the heart of ecological research. A number of recent studies have used null model approaches to explore mechanisms behind spatial variation in community structure.2. However, unexplored questions are the degree to which single guilds of potentially competing stream macroinvertebrate species show: (i) interspecific segregation among‐stream sites (i.e. occur together less often than expected by chance), suggesting competitive interactions; (ii) interspecific aggregation (i.e. occur together more often than expected by chance), suggesting similar responses to the environment; (iii) comply with nestedness, suggesting the existence of selective extinctions or colonisations and (iv) show similar environmental relationships.3. The present analyses showed that guilds of stream macroinvertebrates exhibit non‐random co‐occurrence patterns that were generally contingent on the weighting of sites by stream size. Despite significant segregation of species, each guild also showed significantly nested patterns. Species richness was correlated with different environmental factors between the guilds, although these correlations were relatively low. By contrast, correlations between the major ordination axes and key environmental variables were slightly stronger in canonical correspondence analysis, and generally the same factors were most strongly correlated with variation in the species composition of each guild.4. The present findings are the first to show that species within each stream macroinvertebrate guild show significant negative co‐occurrence at the among‐stream riffle scale. These findings present challenges for future studies that aim to disentangle whether these patterns comply with the habitat checkerboard or the competitive checkerboard explanations.

Effects of habitat history and extinction selectivity on species-richness patterns of an island land snail fauna

Aim Local-scale diversity patterns are not necessarily regulated by contemporary processes, but may be the result of historical events such as habitat changes and selective extinctions that occurred in the past. We test this hypothesis by examining species-richness patterns of the land snail fauna on an oceanic island where forest was once destroyed but subsequently recovered. Location Hahajima Island of the Ogasawara Islands in the western Pacific. Methods Species richness of land snails was examined in 217 0.25 × 0.25 km squares during 1990–91 and 2005–07. Associations of species richness with elevation, current habitat quality (proportion of habitat composed of indigenous trees and uncultivated areas), number of alien snail species, and proportion of forest loss before 1945 in each area were examined using a randomization test and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models. Extinctions in each area and on the entire island were detected by comparing 2005–07 records with 1990–91 records and previously published records from surveys in 1987–91 and 1901–07. The association of species extinction with snail ecotype and the above environmental factors was examined using a spatial generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). Results The level of habitat loss before 1945 explained the greatest proportion of variation in the geographical patterns of species richness. Current species richness was positively correlated with elevation in the arboreal species, whereas it was negatively correlated with elevation in the ground-dwelling species. However, no or a positive correlation was found between elevation and richness of the ground-dwelling species in 1987–91. The change of the association with elevation in the ground-dwelling species was caused by greater recent extinction at higher elevation, possibly as a result of predation by malacophagous flatworms. In contrast, very minor extinction levels have occurred in arboreal species since 1987–91, and their original patterns have remained unaltered, mainly because flatworms do not climb trees. Main conclusions The species-richness patterns of the land snails on Hahajima Island are mosaics shaped by extinction resulting from habitat loss more than 60 years ago, recent selective extinction, and original faunal patterns. The effects of habitat destruction have remained long after habitat recovery. Different factors have operated during different periods and at different time-scales. These findings suggest that historical processes should be taken into account when considering local-scale diversity patterns.

Fish community comparisons along environmental gradients in lakes of France and north‐east USA

ABSTRACTAim To assess whether eight traits of fish communities (species richness, three reproductive traits and four trophic traits) respond similarly to environmental gradients, and consequently display convergence between the lakes of France and north‐east USA (NEUSA).Location 75 French and 168 north‐east USA lakes.Methods The data encompass fish surveys, the assignment of species into reproductive and trophic guilds, and environmental variables characterizing the lakes and their catchments. The analytical procedure was adapted from the recommendations of Schluter (1986) [Ecology, 67, 1073–1085].Results The comparison of the regional pools of lacustrine fishes indicated that NEUSA was about twice as speciose as France, mostly due to higher species turnover across lakes, although NEUSA lakes were consistently about 20% more speciose than French lakes for a given surface area. Warmer environments were consistently inhabited by a higher proportion of phytophilous and guarder species than were colder lakes. Hence there was convergence in community reproductive traits. Conversely, there was no evidence of convergence in the trophic structure of lacustrine fish communities between regions.Main conclusions The influence of temperature on the availability and quality of spawning substrates appears to be a major constraint on present‐day lacustrine fish communities. In parallel, phylogenetic constraints, past events such as the diversification of the North American fish fauna, and selective extinctions during Pleistocene glaciations and subsequent recolonizations contribute to explaining the dissimilarities between the communities of the two regions and differences in their relationship to the environment.

A quantitative null model of additive diversity partitioning: examining the response of beta diversity to extinction

Paleobiological diversity is often expressed as α (within-sample), β (among-sample), and γ (total) diversities. However, when studying the effects of extinction on diversity patterns, only variations in α and γ diversities are typically addressed. A null model that examines changes in β diversity as a function of percent extinction is presented here.The model examines diversity in the context of a hierarchical sampling strategy that allows for the additive partitioning of γ diversity into mean α and β diversities at varying scales. Here, the sampling hierarchy has four levels: samples, beds, facies, and region; thus, there are four levels of α diversity (α1, α2, α3, α4) and three levels of β diversity (β1, β2, and β3). Taxa are randomly assigned to samples within the hierarchy according to probability of occurrence, and initial mean α and β values are calculated. A regional extinction is imposed, and the hierarchy is resampled from the remaining extant taxa. Post-extinction mean α and β values are then calculated.Both non-selective and selective extinctions with respect to taxon abundance yield decreases in α, β, and γ diversities. Non-selective extinction with respect to taxon abundance shows little effect on diversity partitioning except at the highest extinction magnitudes (above 75% extinction), where the contribution of α1 to total γ increases at the expense of β3, with β1 and β2 varying little with increasing extinction magnitude. The pre-extinction contribution of α1 to total diversity increases with increased probabilities of taxon occurrence and the number of shared taxa between facies. Both β1 and β2 contribute equally to total diversity at low occurrence probabilities, but β2 is negligible at high probabilities, because individual samples preserve all the taxonomic variation present within a facies. Selective extinction with respect to rare taxa indicates a constant increase in α1 and constant decrease in β3 with increasing extinction magnitudes, whereas selective extinction with respect to abundant taxa yields the opposite pattern of an initial decrease in α1 and increase in β3. Both β1 and β2 remain constant with increasing extinction for both cases of selectivity. By comparing diversity partitioning before and after an extinction event, it may be possible to determine whether the extinction was selective with respect to taxon abundances, and if so, whether that selectivity was against rare or abundant taxa.Field data were collected across a Late Ordovician regional extinction in the Nashville Dome of Tennessee, with sampling hierarchy similar to that of the model. These data agree with the abundant-selective model, showing declines in α, β, and γ diversities, and a decrease in α1 and increase in β3, which suggests this extinction may have targeted abundant taxa.