Seismic Transients Research Articles

Months-long seismicity transients preceding the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake, Türkiye

Short term prediction of earthquake magnitude, time, and location is currently not possible. In some cases, however, documented observations have been retrospectively considered as precursory. Here we present seismicity transients starting approx. 8 months before the 2023 MW 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake on the East Anatolian Fault Zone. Seismicity is composed of isolated spatio-temporal clusters within 65 km of future epicentre, displaying non-Poissonian inter-event time statistics, magnitude correlations and low Gutenberg-Richter b-values. Local comparable seismic transients have not been observed, at least since 2014. Close to epicentre and during the weeks prior to its rupture, only scarce seismic activity was observed. The trends of seismic preparatory attributes for this earthquake follow those previously documented in both laboratory stick-slip tests and numerical models of heterogeneous earthquake rupture affecting multiple fault segments. More comprehensive earthquake monitoring together with long-term seismic records may facilitate recognizing earthquake preparation processes from other regional deformation transients.

Seismic signature of the deadly snow avalanche of January 18, 2017, at Rigopiano (Italy)

Most snow avalanches occur unobserved, which becomes particularly dramatic when human lives are involved. Seismological observations can be helpful to unravel time and dynamics of unseen events, like the deadly avalanche of January 18, 2017, that hit a Resort-hotel at Rigopiano in the Abruzzi (Italy). Particle motion analysis and spectrograms from data recorded by a close seismic broadband station, calculation of synthetic seismograms, as well as simulation of the flow, allowed us to construct the dynamics of the snow avalanche that buried alive 40 people, killing 29. Due to the bad weather conditions, no visual observation was made, thus making it impossible to determine the exact moment of the avalanche and to report necessary observations of the dramatic event. On-site inspections revealed that the hotel was horizontally cut by shear forces and dislocated by 48 m in 70°N direction, once the increasing avalanche pressure exceeded the structural shear strength of the building. Within an eligible 24 min time range of the avalanche, we found three weak seismic transients, starting at 15:42:38 UTC, recorded by the nearest operating station GIGS located in the Gran Sasso underground laboratory approximately 17 km away. Particle motion analysis of the strongest seismic avalanche signal, as well as of the synthetic seismograms match best when assuming a single force seismic source, attacking in direction of 120°N. Simulation of the avalanche dynamics—calculated by using a 2D rapid mass movement simulator—indicates that the seismic signals were rather generated as the avalanche flowed through a narrow and twisting canyon directly above the hotel. Once the avalanche enters the canyon it is travelling at maximum velocity (37 m/s) and is twice strongly deflected by the rock sidewalls. These impacts created a distinct linearly polarized seismic “avalanche transient”s that can be used to time the destruction of the hotel. Our results demonstrate that seismic recordings combined with simulations of mass movements are indispensable to remotely monitor snow avalanches.

Transient stripping of subducting slabs controls periodic forearc uplift

Topography in forearc regions reflects tectonic processes along the subduction interface, from seismic cycle-related transients to long-term competition between accretion and erosion. Yet, no consensus exists about the topography drivers, especially as the contribution of deep accretion remains poorly constrained. Here, we use thermo-mechanical simulations to show that transient slab-top stripping events at the base of the forearc crust control uplift-then-subsidence sequences. This 100s-m-high topographic signal with a Myr-long periodicity, mostly inaccessible to geodetic and geomorphological records, reflects the nature and influx rate of material involved in the accretion process. The protracted succession of stripping events eventually results in the pulsing rise of a large, positive coastal topography. Trench-parallel alternation of forearc highs and depressions along active margins worldwide may reflect temporal snapshots of different stages of these surface oscillations, implying that the 3D shape of topography enables tracking deep accretion and associated plate-interface frictional properties in space and time.

Chemical and isotopic signature of groundwater in the Santa Ninfa karst system and possible inferences on neotectonics

The Santa Ninfa karst system is an area strongly controlled by tectonics, whose intense fracturing gave rise to the formation of a large number of cavities that foster the drainage of water. The hydrogeochemical characters of groundwater circulating in this aquifer, together with its isotopic signature, were investigated in detail. The chemistry of groundwater reflects the nature of the rocks hosting the aquifers, constituted by primary and diagenetic selenitic gypsum, salts, and gypsum- arenite, whose dissolution is responsible of the geochemical fingerprint of the quasi-totality of the samples. A single site (CAM) is characterised by a different chemical composition, indicating a mixing between Ca-sulphate, Ca-bicarbonate and a NaCl-rich water. From the chemical point of view, no evidence of interaction between shallow groundwater and deep fluids has been detected. Conversely, isotopic fluctuations highlight mixing processes between surficial (evaporated) runoff and groundwater. Different mixing proportion among these endmembers can be reflected in variations of the chemical character of the sampled springs. Changes in mixing proportions can be the effect of differential permeability variations, in turn produced by local stress field changes during seismogenic processes. In this scenario the geochemical monitoring of the Santa Ninfa karst aquifer could be of relevant interest in the study of seismogenic processes in this area, with particular reference to the relationship between seismic and geochemical transients.

What can He II 304 Å tell us about transient seismic emission from solar flares?

AbstractAfter neary 20 years since their discovery by Kosovichev and Zharkova, the mechanics of the release of seismic transients into the solar interior from some flares remain a mystery. Seismically emissive flares invariably show the signatures of intense chromosphere heating consistent with pressure variations sufficient to drive seismic transients commensurate with helioseismic observations—under certain conditions. Magnetic observations show the signatures of apparent magnetic changes, suggesting Lorentz-force transients that could likewise drive seismic transients—similarly subject to certain conditions. But, the diagnostic signatures of both of these prospective drivers are apparent over vast regions from which no significant seismic emission emanates. What distinguishes the source regions of transient seismic emission from the much vaster regions that show the signatures of both transient heating and magnetic variations but are acoustically unproductive? Observations of acoustically active flares in He II 304 Å by the Atomospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) offer a promising new resource with which to address this question.

An application of earthquake prediction algorithm M8 in eastern Anatolia at the approach of the 2011 Van earthquake

On 23rd October 2011, an M7.3 earthquake near the Turkish city of Van, killed more than 600 people, injured over 4000, and left about 60,000 homeless. It demolished hundreds of buildings and caused great damages to thousand others in Van, Ercis, Muradiye, and Çaldıran. The earthquake’s epicenter is located about 70 km from a preceding M7.3 earthquake that occurred in November 1976 and destroyed several villages near the Turkey–Iran border and killed thousands of people. This study, by means of retrospective application of the M8 algorithm, checks to see if the 2011 Van earthquake could have been predicted. The algorithm is based on pattern recognition of Times of Increased Probability (TIP) of a target earthquake from the transient seismic sequence at lower magnitude ranges in a Circle of Investigation (CI). Specifically, we applied a modified M8 algorithm adjusted to a rather low level of earthquake detection in the region following three different approaches to determine seismic transients. In the first approach, CI centers are distributed on intersections of morphostructural lineaments recognized as prone to magnitude 7 + earthquakes. In the second approach, centers of CIs are distributed on local extremes of the seismic density distribution, and in the third approach, CI centers were distributed uniformly on the nodes of a 1∘×1∘ grid. According to the results of the M8 algorithm application, the 2011 Van earthquake could have been predicted in any of the three approaches. We noted that it is possible to consider the intersection of TIPs instead of their union to improve the certainty of the prediction results. Our study confirms the applicability of a modified version of the M8 algorithm for predicting earthquakes at the Iranian–Turkish plateau, as well as for mitigation of damages in seismic events in which pattern recognition algorithms may play an important role.

Frequency dependence of delayed and instantaneous triggering on laboratory and simulated faults governed by rate‐state friction

AbstractEarthquake triggering by transient stresses is commonly observed; however, some aspects remain unexplained. The first is the often‐observed delay between the triggered earthquakes and the triggering waves, and the second is the unexpected effectiveness of transient stressing in the seismic frequency band. Previous theoretical and laboratory studies have suggested that seismic transients should have little impact on faults if the duration of the transient is smaller than the timescale for nucleation of slip. We reexamine the dynamics of stress triggering during stick‐slip sliding on a laboratory fault and make three important observations that pertain to earthquake triggering. (1) Delayed triggering (clock advance) occurs for both bare granite surfaces and granular gouge prior to the onset of instantaneous triggering. (2) Triggering occurs much earlier in the stick‐slip cycle than expected for a simple Coulomb stress threshold. (3) Shorter‐period (higher stressing rate) pulses are more effective at triggering than longer‐period pulses of the same stress amplitude. We use numerical simulations to show that rate‐state friction can explain each of the observed features but not all three simultaneously. Only the Ruina slip law for state evolution, in which faults must slip to heal, can reproduce early‐onset and stressing rate‐dependent triggering. The laboratory and numerical experiments show that faults can remain relatively weak over much of the seismic cycle and that the triggered response depends on a competition between healing and weakening during triggered slip. Transient stressing at seismic frequencies may be more effective at triggering earthquakes than previously recognized.

The Role of Magnetic Fields in Transient Seismic Emission Driven by Atmospheric Heating in Flares

Transient seismic emission in flares remains largely mysterious. Its discoverers proposed that seismic transients are driven by impulsive heating of the flaring chromosphere. Simulations of such heating show strong shocks, but these are damped by heavy radiative losses as they proceed downward. Because compression of the gas the shock enters both heats it and increases its density, the radiative losses increase radically with the strength of the shock, leaving doubt that sufficient energy can penetrate into the solar interior to explain helioseismic signatures. We note that simulations to date have no account for strong, inclined magnetic fields characteristic of transient-seismic-source environments. A strong horizontal magnetic field, for example, greatly increases the compressional modulus of the chromospheric medium, greatly reducing compression of the gas, hence radiative losses. Inclined magnetic fields, then, must be fundamental to the role of impulsive heating in transient seismic emission.

Seismic and infrasound signals at Mt. Etna: Modeling the North-East crater conduit and its relation with the 2008–2009 eruption feeding system

On 13 May 2008, an eruption began at Mt. Etna from an eruptive fissure that opened on the upper eastern flank of the volcano. During 12–13 May, 157 infrasonic events, together with the related seismic transients, were collected. We carried out several analyses to obtain dominant frequencies, pseudospectrograms, peak-to-peak amplitudes, source locations and time lags between infrasonic and seismic events. Spectra of the infrasonic events show two main spectral peaks in the frequency bands ~0.4–0.7Hz and 1.5–2.0Hz, respectively. Both infrasonic and seismic events were separately located below the North-East crater, where no eruptive activity was observed. Moreover, significant changes in infrasound spectral content, as well as in the infrasonic–seismic lags, were found a few hours before the beginning of the eruption. On the basis of the collected information the infrasound source mechanism was modeled as a superposition of pipe and Helmholtz resonance, also leading to outline the geometry of the shallower portion of the North-East crater plumbing system. The occurrence of these seismo-infrasonic events together with other geological and geophysical evidences, led us to inferring a direct link between North-East crater activity and the eruptive fissure. Further, based on variations over time of both spectral features and seismic–infrasonic time lag, shallowing phenomena of the free magma column inside North-East crater conduit were hypothesized. Such an uprise of magma was likely caused by a pressure increase inside the plumbing system occurring before the beginning of the 2008–2009 eruption.

Seismic Transients from Flares in Solar Cycle 23

Some solar flares are known to drive seismic waves into the sub-photospheres of the magnetic regions that host them. Sunquakes, which are identified as a wave-packet of ripples are observed on the solar surface emanating from a focal region, known as seismic source or sometimes as a transient. Not all seismic transients from flares generate sunquakes. How these are produced is still a puzzle. In this paper, I will give an overview of the observed properties of sunquakes and efforts to understanding physics underlying them, including numerical modelling of flare-driven oscillations.

Mechanics of Seismic Emission from Solar Flares

Instances of seismic transients emitted into the solar interior in the impulsive phases of some solar flares offer a promising diagnostic tool, both for understanding the physics of solar flares and for the general development of local helioseismology. Among the prospective contributors to flare acoustic emission that have been considered are: i) chromospheric shocks propelled by pressure transients caused by impulsive thick-target heating of the upper and middle chromosphere by high-energy particles, ii) heating of the photosphere by continuum radiation from the chromosphere or possibly by high-energy protons, and iii) magnetic-force transients caused by magnetic reconnection. Hydrodynamic modeling of chromospheric shocks suggests that radiative losses deplete all but a small fraction of the energy initially deposited into them before they penetrate the photosphere. Comparisons between the spatial distribution of acoustic sources, derived from seismic holography of the surface signatures of flare acoustic emission, and the spatial distributions of sudden changes both in visible-light emission and in magnetic signatures offer a possible means of discriminating between contributions to flare acoustic emission from photospheric heating and magnetic-force transients. In this study we develop and test a means for estimating the seismic intensity and spatial distribution of flare acoustic emission from photospheric heating associated with visible-light emission and compare this with the helioseismic signatures of seismic emission. Similar techniques are applicable to transient magnetic signatures.

Correlative study of the emission from flares associated with Sun quakes

AbstractMulti-wavelength studies of energetic solar flares with seismic emissions have revealed interesting common features that may help us to identify the correlations of flare signatures from the inner to the outer solar atmosphere and, to develop diagnostic techniques to aid in the sun quake detection. In our study, we make use the relation between the microwave and the hard X-ray emissions associated with such flares to propose a scenario for the ignition of seismic transients from flares. We explore the mechanisms of energy transport to the photosphere, such us back-warming or direct particle impacts.

Chromospheric line emission in seismically active flares

Some flares are known to drive seismic transients into the solar interior. The effects of these seismic transients are seen in helioseismic observations of the Sun’s surface thousands of km from their sources in the hour succeeding the impulsive phase of the flare. Energetic particles impinging from the corona into the chromosphere are known to drive strong, downward-propagating shocks in active region chromospheres during the impulsive phases of flares. Hα observations have served as an important diagnostic of these shocks, showing intense emission with characteristic transient redshifts. In most flares no detectable transients penetrate beneath the active region photosphere. In those that do, there is a strong correlation between compact white-light emission and the signature of seismic emission. This study introduces the first known Hα observations of acoustically active flares, centered in the core of the line. The morphology of line-core emission Hα in the impulsive phase of the flare is similar to that of co-spatial line-core emission in NaD 1, encompassing the site of seismic emission but more extended. The latter shows a compact red shift in the region of seismic emission, but a similar feature is known to appear in a conjugate magnetic footpoint from which no seismic emission emanates. Radiative MHD modelling based on the profiles of chromospheric line emission during the impulsive phases of flares can contribute significantly to our understanding of the mechanics of flare acoustic emission penetrating into the solar interior and the conditions under which it occurs.

Application of Artificial Neural Networks for the classification of the seismic transients at Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat

Seismic activity at Soufrière Hills volcano is characterized by a variety of transients, such as tectonic earthquakes, long‐period events, hybrid events, and rockfalls. The huge quantity of seismic data daily recorded on the volcano makes the application of automatic processing highly recommendable. We propose a method of supervised classification of the transients based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), which may be useful for processing the large data sets piled up in the past. Particularly, data sets recorded before the climactic eruptions from 1995 to 2002 may allow us to reconstruct the distribution of the different classes of seismic transients in time. We believe that this analysis may give useful insights into impending eruptive scenarios. The good performance of the ANN with 70% of transients correctly classified in a test set of 156 data, along with the opportunity to revise the misfits, make ANN a powerful tool for data processing.

Automatic hypocenter determination of volcano induced seismic transients based on wavefield coherence — an application to the 1998 eruption of Mt. Merapi, Indonesia

In order to monitor the seismic activity of Mt. Merapi (Indonesia) over a long period of time, we installed a permanent array of both broadband and short-period seismometers during the summer of 1997. Considering the requirements of an automatic classification and localization system for seismic monitoring and surveillance at active volcanoes, we split this network into three small-aperture arrays distributed around the volcano. We introduce here a newly developed method to determine the hypocenters in an automatic, non-linear manner using the coherence of seismic waves observed at the different arrays. To test this method, we analyze a swarm of VT-B events recorded by the network. The first step in this algorithm is based on a modified smoothed coherence transform. In the second step, we perform a semblance analysis applied to the 3D problem, evaluating the quality of the estimated relative onset-times. After more than one year of dormancy, Mt. Merapi renewed its activity at the end of June 1998. This gave us the opportunity to analyze all stages of dome growth, collapse and new intrusion of magma using the associated seismicity in a post-processing sense. This also allowed us to calibrate and test our newly developed automatic monitoring system using the more pronounced waveforms of VT-B events. By detecting and classifying different event types automatically, we are able to localize a large number of VT-B events, which occurred just before the initial eruption. We are also able to resolve some properties of the wavefield at Mt. Merapi, which are essential for further interpretations. Finally, the results show that the source region of the VT-B type seismicity just before the 1998 eruption is closely related to the region of subsequent high volcanic activity and therefore may represent a promising tool to forecast future eruptions.

Evaluation of hydrodynamic mass methods in reactor applications

The hydrodynamic (or virtual) mass approach is evaluated by comparison of structural responses computed by the hydrodynamic mass method with those computed by MULTIFLEX code for a fluid-structure interaction problem with fluid compression effects taken into account. A sample problem used in that evaluation is a simplified 1-D PWR model which is first subjected to a LOCA type transient. The time history of structural displacement computed with the hydrodynamic mass approach is compared with MULTIFLEX results. The frequencies of structural oscillation of these two computations agree fairly well. But the amplitudes disagree by more than 50%, which is attributed to the effect of the fluid compressibility. For the seismic study, sinusoidal forces are applied to the floor at the vessel support. The system responses are expressed by the response functions or the maximum values of the barrel/vessel relative displacements as the applied frequency is varied. The response functions are computed by the hydrodynamic mass method and by MULTIFLEX for evaluation of the virtual mass method. For the pump pulsation study, sinusoidal pressure oscillations are applied at the pump outlet and the response functions are computed as above. For seismic transients, it is found that the hydrodynamic mass method is applicable in the low frequency range ω > 17 Hz. For pump pulsation analyses of ω ⪆ 150 Hz, the hydrodynamic mass method is applicable. Otherwise, the virtual mass method may yield quite different results than MULTIFLEX, because of fluid incompressibility assumptions.

Impulse response function for a scalar wave source in a compliant baffle

The velocity potential impulse response function is computed for a cylindrical piston in a compliant baffle. It is shown that, in general, the impulse response is that of a piston in a noncompliant baffle, plus a small wake, or reverberation, which dies out in a time the order of the transit time of the wave to the point in space. The slow decay of the wake means that the energy in the wake from a short pulse will be considerable fraction of the total energy. The solution is obtained in closed from from a baffle which matches the fluid impedance. Second sound heat pulse propagation in helium II obeys the scalar wave equation and it will have a second sound heat pulse impulse response which is isomorphous with that of the pressure wave in a fluid. It is pointed out that the analyses of the transient electromagnetic field of a vertical dipole antenna above a conducting earth, and the seismic transients in a layered earth can be of use in discussing the acoustic problem explored here.