Seismic Sequence Research Articles

Single Station Seismic Event Location With a Neural‐Guided Mixture Model: Model‐Based Weighting for Improved Accuracy

AbstractIn many regions of the world with complex seismic activity, the availability of seismic stations is limited. This motivated us to develop a probabilistic method for single‐station earthquake location. Single station location methods may provide an efficient and cost‐effective way to monitor small‐magnitude seismic events over large areas of the world. This method relies on the outputs of two neural networks, which predict the initial spatial location of specific areas (convolutional) used in the prior probability and seismic phase recognition (combination of convolutional and Long Short Term Memory) used in the likelihood function. These estimates and a 3D travel time likelihood function are used in a Bayesian framework. In this model, the initial spatial location is expressed as a Multivariate Gaussian Mixture Model, and the likelihood function refines the localization using the arrival time difference between S and P waves in a 3D space. The likelihood function uses a Fast Marching Eikonal method with a 3D velocity structure. We tested this method on the Ridgecrest 2019 seismic sequence (Mw = 7.1) and on West Texas and found promising results for locating with a single station. Our approach demonstrates that using a Bayesian model with strong priors obtained through deep learning algorithms is effective. Our model can predict epicenter and depth with mean errors of 7.55 km in longitude, 13.54 km in latitude and 0.630 km in depth at the two different locations studied. This method demonstrates the effectiveness of combining deep learning for initial estimations with probabilistic 3D location refinement.

Temporal variation of S-wave attenuation during the 2009 L'Aquila, Central Italy, seismic sequence

SUMMARY We investigate temporal and spatial variations of the spectral decay parameter kappa (κ) before and after the 6 April 2009, L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.1), in Central Italy. We analysed foreshocks 10 days before and aftershocks occurring 10 days and 6 months after this main event. We select earthquakes with magnitudes Mw ≥ 3.2 registered by the seismic network of Central Italy within a radius of 20 km from the epicentre of the L'Aquila main shock and having hypocentre distances of less than 170 km. We separate near-source, along-path and near-site contributions of κ for each group of events and we detected temporal variations of this S-wave attenuation parameter. We find that 10 days before the main shock κ along the path has the lowest values, probably due to high tectonic stress accumulated, in agreement with previous investigations performed with other techniques, then κ increases during the main event and remains constant during the first 10 days of aftershocks. The aftershocks that occurred 6 months after show an increase in the regional attenuation probably due to the tectonic stress released during the main shock and the earlier aftershocks. From the spatial point of view, 10 days before the principal event the foreshocks located to the south show an increase in the near-source attenuation towards the northeast, in the direction of the main shock. These spatial variations of κ may be related to the presence of crustal fluids near the rupture area, as evidenced by other previous studies. The first 10 days of aftershocks that concentrate around the main earthquake have high near-source κ, and those located north of the main rupture have lower values. These observations are consistent with previous investigations that show variations of elastic and anisotropic crustal properties during the L'Aquila earthquake sequence due to dilatancy and fluid diffusion processes within the nucleation zone. We conclude that temporal variations of the spectral decay parameter κ provide important clues for the earthquake cycle in Central Italy.

The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of induced seismicity in the Changning shale gas field based on dense array

In this paper, we performed microseismicity detection and location using the deep learning method and obtained a high-precision earthquake catalog in the Changning gas field, which is one of the largest shale gas production demonstration areas in China. We found that the spatial and temporal characteristics of seismicity in the region are indicative of its correlation with industrial operations. The distribution of earthquakes at depth reflected variations in reservoir depth and provided valuable constraints on it. The horizontal layered distribution of earthquakes at depth is due to the formation of fracture surfaces from interconnected fractures near the reservoir during hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations, which clearly demonstrates how HF operations impact seismicity. We suggested that the horizontally layered distribution was driven by two fundamental mechanisms: reactivation of pre-existing faults during HF and injection of high-pressure fluids into the reservoir, leading to fracture creation. Several ML ≥4 earthquakes, which did not occur on well-defined seismogenic faults, may have been triggered by pore elastic coupling resulting from regional stress accumulation and fluid injection. Significantly, the ML 4.9 seismic sequence occurring at the basement indicates that fracking has reactivated and promoted pre-existing faults, highlighting the need for further investigation into potential seismic hazards in the region.

A Methodologic Approach to Study Large and Complex Landslides: An Application in Central Apennines

The evaluation of landslide hazards in seismic areas is based on a deterministic analysis, which is unable to account for various uncertainties in the analysis process. This paper focuses on the probabilistic local seismic hazard analysis and extends the results to the landslide hazard analysis to consider both the uncertainties of the ground deformations and the strengths. The work studies the areas between Nibbiano and Sant’Erasmo hamlets in the Camerino municipality located in central Italy, where all constructions present evidence of damage caused by both the seismic sequence of 2016–2017 and the slope instability. An exhaustive geological and geophysical investigation has clarified the geological, geomorphological, and hydrogeological characteristics of the area, enabling a new characterization of material stress-strain behaviour. The study reveals that the low stiffness of the debris covers, and their fair degree of permeability contribute to potential instability scenarios triggered by both intense rainfall and the effects of strong earthquakes. The goal was to utilize the results to support local urban planning because in-depth knowledge of the possible evolutionary scenarios of the slopes is fundamental to the management of the degree of danger for structures, especially for people. Moreover, it was shown once again how a multi-source approach, with different investigation techniques, cannot be ignored for the study of the evolution of complex landslides.

Generating more constrained seeds for seismic horizon extraction

Enhancing accuracy remains the main challenge for the current horizon extraction algorithms. Adding more manually interpreted seeds helps to improve the accuracy of horizon extraction. We intend to generate more seeds prior to the 3D horizon extraction based on seeds that are manually interpreted on the coarse grid of the seismic survey. First, we compute four horizons for the same seismic sequence boundary using deep learning and constrained least-squares algorithms under the constraints of manually interpreted horizon seeds. Next, we generate more seeds by checking the consistency among those four horizons for each seismic trace, and this process is implemented in the same way as the tying loops of manual horizon interpretation. Finally, we extract horizons using constrained least-squares algorithms with the newly computed seeds. The applications of two real seismic surveys demonstrate that our method can generate horizons with higher accuracy when compared with the horizons computed with only manually interpreted seeds.

New 3D Velocity Model (mTAB3D) for Absolute Hypocenter Location in Southern Iberia and the Westernmost Mediterranean

AbstractThe Trans‐Alboran Shear Zone is one of the most seismically active areas in the westernmost Mediterranean, where a wide variety of tectonic domains have developed within the context of oblique convergence between Eurasia and Africa plates. In this region, earthquakes occur close to seismogenic structures, some of them large enough to cause damaging events. In addition, the diversity of tectonic domains implies a lateral variation of seismic wave propagation, which could affect the hypocenter reliability if not addressed during the location procedure. We present mTAB3D, a new 3D P‐wave velocity created after data collection, geometry modeling and velocity estimation in our study area. To test this model, we used arrival times from the Spanish Seismic Network catalog and performed two non‐linear absolute hypocenter inversions: the first comprises all the seismicity detected during 2018–2022 in the Eastern Betics Shear Zone; the second one consists of the earthquakes recorded during the Al‐Hoceima seismic sequence (2016). We compare our results against hypocenters computed with a 1D velocity model of the region (mIGN1D) and observe that mTAB3D achieves better clustering near active structures and lower epicentral uncertainties (up to 11% lower). Moreover, hypocenters obtained with mTAB3D show notable reliability even in scenarios of a low azimuthal gap, such as the 2016 Al‐Hoceima sequence. The new catalogs computed with our model help us to infer possible genetic relations between seismicity and source faults within our study area and can be used as an additional tool when looking into prior seismic sequences.

Successive Tsunamigenic Events Near Sofu Seamount Inferred From High‐Frequency Teleseismic P and Regional T Waves

AbstractAn unexpected major tsunami from the region near Sofu Seamount was observed on 8 October 2023. Sofu Seamount is located approximately 600 km from the coast of Japan. Due to far epicentral distances and the successive occurrence of seismic events, the conventional seismic analysis to reveal the accompanying seismic sequence cannot work well. We investigated high‐frequency teleseismic P and regional T waves from the accompanying seismic sequence during the tsunamigenic events near Sofu Seamount. Envelope shapes of teleseismic P and regional T waves were similar, indicating that T‐wave envelopes also reflected source properties of seismic sequence. During seismic events near Sofu Seamount, observed regional envelopes were characterized by weak body waves and large amplitude T waves with durations of 39–68 s. According to numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation using a realistic topography model, characteristics of T waves exhibit weak slope‐angle and strong source‐depth dependencies. Strong T waves with durations less than 60 s only appeared in results with sources at depths ≤0.5 km below the seafloor. We concluded that high‐frequency radiation of the accompanying seismic sequence during the tsunamigenic events near Sofu Seamount possibly occurred at shallower depths just below the seafloor. If seismic and tsunami sources coincide, shallower source depths might cause tsunamigenic uplifts. The observed peak seafloor uplifts and T‐wave amplitudes during tsunamigenic events were scaled. This result suggests the possibility of tsunami forecasting based on T‐wave amplitudes from submarine volcanoes.

تحليل السحنات الرسوبية وتوصيف الخزانات لتكوينات حواز والمومنيات من العصر الأوردوفيشي وتكوين عوينات وأنين من العصر الديفوني، منطقة 176-4، حوض مرزق، جنوب غرب ليبيا

The Ordovician to Devonian succession in the in Murzuq Basin represents the most important part of the lower Paleozoic terrigenous Al Gargaf siliciclastic group, which consists of several formations such as the Ordovician Hawaz, Melaz Shuqran and Mamuniyat Formations and the Devonian Tadrart and Awainat Wanin Formations. Different integrated methods were used and implemented in order to understand lithology and sedimentary structures of the Ordovician, Silurian and Devonian formations. Firstly, intensive geological field trips were carried out and special attention was focused on Ordovician and Devonian reservoir sandstones and the Silurian source rocks. Secondly facies analysis and sequence stratigraphy methods were applied to figure out a simple sequence stratigraphic division of the Ordovician to Devonian succession based on outcrop sections, well logs and interpreted seismic sections. As a result of the petrographic field investigation and facies analysis based on seismic interpretation of the several seismic lines in the study area. Sequence boundaries of the Ordovician and Devonian succession on all seismic sections were identified by using specific reflection terminations such as onlap and erosional truncations features. 13 seismic facies were recognized, divided and classified for each of the examined stratigraphic formations (4 facies in Hawaz, 5 facies in Melaz Shuqran and Mamuniyat formations and 4 facies in the Tadrart and Awainat Wanin). A seismic facies classification chart was made on the basis of the classified seismic facies scheme, since depositional systems and types of seismic facies differ in each stratigraphic succession. Depositional sequences of sedimentary environments were identified from well logs and available 2D seismic sections and sequence stratigraphic frameworks were constructed for the Ordovician and Devonian formations. Based on the facies analysis and sequence stratigraphy interpretations, two different order sequences in the Ordovician to Devonian succession have been found and identified: The major sequences are possibly 2nd-order sequences in time duration. They are clearly traceable on all seismic sections. May be minor sequences are possibly 3rd-order sequences, and they are not traceable on all seismic sections clearly, but are recognized on well logs or outcrop sections. Eventually, all obtained information and that results were plotted on the different maps for each examined section to construct a depositional model and to estimate the maximum distributions of each formation separately on the basis of depositional system interpretations. Keywords: Murzuq Basin, Al Gargaf siliciclastic group, Ordovician to Devonian succession, depositional system and seismic facies

Investigating the Last Millennium Coulomb Stress Transfer in the Central Apennine Fault System (CAFS)

AbstractThe Central Apennine Fault System (CAFS) characterizes an active tectonic region of significant importance, witnessing numerous destructive seismic events over the last millennia. Although numerous studies have underscored the role of Coulomb stress transfer (CST) in initiating some of the most catastrophic earthquakes, investigations focusing on its specific influence within the CAFS are limited. This research delves into a thorough examination of the effects of CST on both historical and instrumental seismic events of significant magnitude associated with the CAFS. We selected nine seismic events for the CST investigation, dating from 1279 CE to present. Beyond analyzing the static stress transfer for each individual seismic event, the cumulative CST of recent instrumental earthquakes was also examined to provide a comprehensive overview of the current stress scenario. Leveraging an innovative approach, faults were modeled adopting a variable strike three‐dimensional elliptical shape, ensuring enhanced calculation accuracy. Significant findings emerge from the analysis: CST has played a pivotal role in either activating or inhibiting the faults of the CAFS over the centuries. Several examined instances showcase fault reactivation following increased transferred stress within relatively short time frames, while others highlight the inhibitory effect of stress shadows. Examining the differences in seismic moment release across three seismicity windows (the first one between 1300 and 1400, the second around 1700, and the last one from 1979 to 2016) reveals distinct periods of higher seismicity in the past millennium. The latter shows the lowest cumulative seismic moment, suggesting a potential seismic gap equivalent to a Mw 6.67 earthquake. Deepening our understanding of CST illuminates the role of fault interactions in past earthquake occurrences, offering valuable insights into forecasting potential future seismic sequences. This awareness is vital in crafting targeted seismic risk mitigation strategies, thereby safeguarding local communities from the profound consequences of earthquakes.

Phase‐Transition Variations in Granular Materials Under Multi‐Period Vibrations: Implications for Triggering Landslides After Multiple Earthquakes

AbstractEarthquake‐triggered landslides are widely recognized. Despite extensive research on the seismic responses of landslides triggered by single earthquakes, there is a lack of understanding of the seismic responses of landslides due to earthquake sequences and multiple earthquakes, and the mechanisms of dynamic weakening under multiple earthquakes still lack support from experimental results. To explore their seismic response characteristics and triggering mechanism, a series of multi‐period vibrations ring shear tests and dynamic triaxial‐bender tests were conducted with glass spheres. The experimental results show that the co‐vibration slip occurred during the vibration process, and as the vibration periods increased, the sample gradually slipped after vibration, eventually leading to accelerated instability. The sample exhibited a transition from a solid‐semi‐solid state to a liquid state due to the increase in vibration periods. Further results show that the shear modulus progressively weakened with successive vibration periods. The weakening of the shear strength of the sample caused by multi‐periods vibration was affected by the amplitude, the vibration time, and the interval time between two periods of vibration. Our study provided insights into how multiple earthquakes of seismic sequence and seismically active area trigger landslides.

Studying Past Earthquakes with Modern Techniques: Ground-Motion Simulations for the 11 January 1693 Noto Earthquake in Italy

Abstract The 1693 Noto earthquake, which struck on 11 January, is one of the Italy’s largest and most devastating earthquakes. According to the Italian Parametric Earthquake Catalogue, it reached a maximum intensity of 11 on the Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg scale and had an estimated magnitude of M 7.3. Nevertheless, its precise location and source definition remain subjects to debate due to the complexity of the seismic sequence and lack of geological evidence. A series of potential seismic sources differing in location, dimension, and kinematics have been proposed in the literature based on seismotectonic data and interpretations. The goal of this work is to perform a retrospective experiment to verify which of the proposed seismic sources have a better fit with the observed intensity data. To do so, novel simulation techniques are used to study this historical earthquake. We generated ground-motion scenarios for each proposed source model through a stochastic finite-fault simulation approach. Then, the simulated ground-motion parameters were converted to intensities using two different ground-motion intensity conversion equations for Italy. Finally, we compared these converted intensities with the observed intensity data in terms of normalized root mean square errors and converted intensities from ground-motion models. Our results generally show good consistency between converted intensities from the simulated and predicted ground motions, whereas the observed intensities fit better to converted ones from the peak ground velocity rather than peak ground acceleration. Our analysis reveals that the source model reproducing the best of the macroseismic data of the Noto earthquake is the Canicattì–Villasmundo fault system with a magnitude of 7.1.

Using RSQSim to Determine Seismic Sequence in Eastern Taiwan Fault System

Abstract Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of seismic activity, along with fault interactions in Taiwan, is essential for earthquake hazard assessment and advancing knowledge of regional tectonics. This study employs the Rate and State Earthquake Simulator (RSQSim) to simulate the eastern Taiwan fault system, integrating fault geometry from the multidisciplinary Taiwan Earthquake Model. We applied long-term simulations spanning 400,000 yr to conduct earthquake sequences and recurrence intervals on five distinct faults in eastern Taiwan: Milun fault, Longitudinal Valley fault, Central Range structure, Luyeh fault, and Taimali Coastline structure. The simulated earthquake catalogs are compared against the historical record in terms of seismicity, frequency–magnitude statistics, and recurrence patterns. The model reasonably reproduces key observational constraints, including spatial patterns, magnitude probabilities fitting a gamma distribution, and periods of quiescence resulting from fault interactions. Overall, the results demonstrate RSQSim’s potential for physics-based seismic hazard modeling and provide insights into regional seismotectonic processes in eastern Taiwan for constructing sustainable cities and communities.

Unveiling complex fault geometry and driving mechanisms: insights from a refined data processing and multiplet analysis of the 2010 Beni-Ilmane seismic sequence (NE Algeria)

SUMMARY This paper offers a comprehensive re-analysis of the Beni-Ilmane 2010 seismic sequence, using a data set that is 100 per cent larger than previous studies. This unprecedented sequence in Algeria features three main shocks with magnitudes Mw 5.4, 5.1 and 5.1. Our approach involves high-precision relocation, which includes the development of a new 1-D minimum velocity model, followed by a double-difference (DD) procedure and hierarchical clustering. We determined the focal mechanisms (FMs) for 128 key events and identified 21 multiplet groups using an average cross-correlation threshold of 0.8. Our analysis offers new insights into fault geometry and addresses ongoing debates, by proposing a seismotectonic model that reveals the activation of 14 fault segments during the sequence, in contrast to previous oversimplified models that suggested two or three faults. The computed stress field from the inversion of 128 FMs aligns with a tectonic loading force due to the convergence of the African and Eurasian plates. These findings highlight the complexity of the fault network in the study area and shed light on the role of strike-slip faults in shaping the thrust belt. We found a strong link between multiplet groups and fluid movement along the fault network. Analysis of the temporal history of these multiplet groups provides new insights into fluid dynamics timescales, with an estimated hydraulic diffusivity (D) of 0.36 m2 s−1 suggesting a fluid pressure diffusion process. The observed expansion of the aftershock area with the logarithm of time and the existence of repeating earthquakes indicates, for the first time, an aseismic slip mechanism that adds an additional layer to the driven processes. In conclusion, our results suggest that the underlying mechanisms governing the BI-2010 seismic sequence involve a complex interplay of tectonic loading, coseismic stress transfer, fluid dynamics and aseismic slip transients. We attempt to correlate our findings with various studies linking the structure, mechanics and fluid flow properties of fault zones and fault systems. The activation of smaller fault segments potentially averted a larger quake, resulting in three moderate main shocks and numerous aftershocks. This work not only enrich our understanding of seismic phenomena but also provides useful insights for seismic hazard assessment and risk mitigation strategies.

Blind spectral inversion of seismic data

AbstractReflectivity inversion is a key step in reservoir prediction. Conventional sparse‐spike deconvolution assumes that the reflectivity (reflection coefficient series) is sparse and solves for the reflection coefficients by an L1‐norm inversion process. Spectral inversion is an alternative to sparse‐spike deconvolution, which is based on the odd–even decomposition algorithm and can accurately identify thin layers and reduce the wavelet tuning effect without using constraints from logging data, from horizon interpretations or from an initial model of the reflectivity. In seismic processing, an error exists in wavelet extraction because of complex geological structures, resulting in the low accuracy of deconvolution and inversion. Blind deconvolution is an effective method for solving the problem mentioned above, which comprises seismic wavelet and reflectivity sequence, assuming that the wavelets that affect some subsets of the seismic data are approximately the same. Therefore, we combined blind deconvolution with spectral inversion to propose blind spectral inversion. Given an initial wavelet, we can calculate the reflectivity based on spectral inversion and update the wavelet for the next iteration. During the update processing, we add the smoothness of the wavelet amplitude spectrum as a regularization term, thus reducing the wavelet oscillation in the time domain, increasing the similarity between inverted and initial wavelets, and improving the stability of the solution. The blind spectral inversion method inherits the wavelet robustness of blind deconvolution and high resolution of spectral inversion, which is suitable for reflectivity inversion. Applications to synthetic and field seismic datasets demonstrate that the blind spectral inversion method can accurately calculate the reflectivity even when there is an error in wavelet extraction.

A Hydro-Mechanical Investigation of the First M 4 + Seismicity Sequence in the Midland Basin, Texas

A Hydro-Mechanical Investigation of the First M 4 + Seismicity Sequence in the Midland Basin, Texas

Using the Contrast Boundary Concentration of LST for the Earthquake Approach Assessment in Turkey, 6–8 February 2023

Land surface temperature (LST) variations and anomalies associated with tectonic plate movements have been documented before large earthquakes. In this work, we propose that spatially extended and dynamic linear zones of high temperature anomalies at the Earth’s surface coinciding with faults in the Earth’s crust may be used as a predictor of an approaching earthquake. LST contrast boundary concentration maps are suggested to be a possible indicator for analyzing temperature changes before and after seismic sequences. Here, we analyze the concentration of LST contrast boundaries estimated from Landsat 8–9 data for the East Anatolian Fault Zone in the vicinity of epicenters of the destructive earthquakes with magnitudes up to 7.8 Mw that occurred in February 2023. A spatial relationship between earthquake epicenters and the maximum concentration of LST boundaries at azimuths of 0° and 90° was found to strengthen as the earthquake approaches and weaken after it. It was found that 92% of epicenters are located at up to 5 km distance from zones of maximum LST boundary concentration. The evidence presented in this work supports the idea that LST may provide valuable information for seismic hazard assessment before large earthquakes.

The link between gas extraction and shallow seismicity around the Dalan gas field of Zagros Mountains, Iran

We analyze seismicity from 2013 to 2023 near Bushkan village in the Fars arc of the Zagros folded belt, colocated with the Dalan natural gas field. A previous study suggested unusual seismic behavior in the 2014–15 cluster, linking larger events to shallow depths (∼5 km) on steep reverse faults within the Dalan anticline. Nevertheless, ongoing debates persist regarding the potential correlation of seismicity with activities in the Dalan field. Our study investigates seismic activities using relocation, moment tensor inversion, stress inversion, and remote sensing techniques. We relocated 35 events above magnitude 3 and reconstructed source parameters for 12 events (M 4+) with uncertainties. Focal mechanisms were inverted, and morphology remote sensing was employed to ascertain the active stress state. Besides the 2014–15 cluster, we found a separate strike-slip cluster in 2018 at shallower depths (3–4 km), unusual for Zagros earthquakes. We suggest that pore pressure variations influence seismic sequences in the Dalan gas field area. However, distinguishing between human-induced and natural earthquakes in regions like Zagros with naturally elevated seismicity is challenging.

Interplay of tectonic and dynamic processes shaping multilayer extensional system in southern-central Apennines

High-hazard seismic zones can remain silent over centuries with meager seismicity rates challenging our understanding of seismic processes. We focus on the comprehensive analysis of cascading episodes of swarms and seismic sequences following the 2009 L’Aquila mainshock (MW 6.3) in the southern-central Apennine that previously experienced ~ M7 earthquakes. We enhance the seismic catalog, unmasking low-magnitude seismicity down to completeness magnitude ML ~ 0, and we unveil that the microseismicity might be secondarily triggered by the L’Aquila mainshock, influencing the frictional properties in the nearby fault zones or opening fault valves generating the intense seismic activity detected from 2009 to 2013. The diffusivity, observed in the most seismic episodes, and the high Vp/Vs values (> 1.88) indicate fluid circulation promoting multilayered extensional seismicity within 11–15 km and 16–23 km depth ranges. Mapping the 3D distribution of seismicity alongside geological data reveals an evident tectonic influence, unveiling unknown geometric aspects and providing the first evidence of a NNE-dipping deformation zone bounding at depths of 11–15 km the overlying fault system. Deeper seismicity suggests a mantellic CO2 ascending shape. These findings enrich the literature on tectonic seismic swarms in extensional domains, providing essential constraints on fluid involvement in the seismic processes and contributing to forthcoming discussions on the seismotectonic setting in high-seismic-risk areas of the Apennines of Italy.

Physically adjusted ground motion prediction equations for induced seismicity at Preston New Road, UK

Predicting ground motions due to induced seismicity is a challenging task owing to the scarcity of data and heterogeneity of the uppermost crust. Dealing with this requires a thorough understanding of the underlying physics and consideration of inter-site variability. The most common ground motion model used in practice is the parametric ground motion prediction equation (GMPE), of which hundreds exist in the literature. However, relatively few are developed with a focus on induced seismicity. Developing GMPEs that are specific to an appropriate magnitude-distance range (R<30\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$R < 30$$\\end{document} km; 2≤M≤6\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$2 \\le M \\le 6$$\\end{document}) is important for induced seismicity applications. This paper proposes a framework for the development of physically-based GMPEs to provide more accurate and reliable estimates of the potential induced-seismicity ground motion hazard, allowing for better risk assessment and management strategies. To demonstrate this approach, a new set of GMPEs for the 2018-2019 induced seismicity sequence at the Preston New Road (PNR) shale gas site near Blackpool, United Kingdom, is presented. The physically-based GMPE was developed based on a pseudo-finite-fault stochastic ground motion simulation, calibrated with parameters derived from the spectral analysis of weak-motion records from induced seismic events. An optimization-based calibration technique using the area metric (AM) was subsequently performed to calibrate optimal parameters for simulating ground motion at the PNR site. Finally, using a suite of forward simulations for events with 1≤M≤6\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$1 \\le M \\le 6$$\\end{document} recorded at distances up to 30 km, combined with empirical data, a location-specific GMPE was derived through adjustment of an existing model.

Characterization and Evolution of Seismic Sequences in the Normal Fault Environment of the Southern Apennines

AbstractThe use of seismic catalogs enhanced through advanced detection techniques improves the understanding of earthquake processes by illuminating the geometry and mechanics of fault systems. In this study, we performed accurate hypocentral locations, source parameters estimation and stress release modeling from catalogs of microseismic sequences nucleating in the complex normal fault system of the Southern Apennines (Italy). The application of advanced location techniques resulted in the relocation of ∼30% of the earthquakes in the enhanced catalogs, with hypocenters clearly identifying local patches on kilometer‐scale structures that feature consistent orientation with the main faults of the area. When mapping the stress change on the fault plane, the inter‐event distance compared to the size of the events suggests that the dominant triggering mechanism within the sequences is static stress transfer. The distribution of events is not isotropic but dominantly aligned along the dip direction. These slip‐dominated lineations could be associated with striations related to fault roughness and could map the boundary between locked and creeping domains in Apulian platform and basement.