Seedling Dynamics Research Articles

Seed ecology and seedling dynamics of western Himalayan treeline tree species

Seed ecology and seedling dynamics of western Himalayan treeline tree species

Phylogenetic relatedness and habitat affect seedling abundance of a mid-montane humid evergreen broad-leaved forest in the Gaoligong Mountains, Southwestern China

The neighborhood effect has become an important framework with which to study the mechanisms that maintain the coexistence of tree species. Phylogenetic relatedness among neighboring plants directly affects species coexistence and the maintenance of tree diversity. And some studies have reported that seedling performance is negatively correlated with phylogenetic relatedness, which termed phylogenetic negative density dependence. Soil-borne fungal pathogens affected seedling performance of phylogenetically related host species, i.e., phylogenetic Janzen–Connell effect. Seedlings may be particularly vulnerable to habitat and neighbor characteristics. Although previous studies have demonstrated the influence of neighborhood effects, phylogenetic relatedness, and habitat filtering on seedling survival, growth, and mortality, the effect of variation in these factors on seedling abundance remains unclear. To address this question, we used a 4-ha (200 m × 200 m) and monitored four-year (2020–2023) seedling dataset from a mid-montane humid evergreen broad-leaved subtropical forest in the Gaoligong Mountains, Yunnan, Southwestern China, and which consisted of 916 seedlings belonging to 56 species. The results of generalized linear mixed models showed no significant effect of conspecific adult neighbors on seedling abundance at any of the intervals evaluated. In contrast, we found evidence of phylogenetic distance density dependence in the forests of the Gaoligong Mountains. Specifically, there was a significant positive effect of the relative average phylogenetic distance between heterospecific adult neighbors and focal seedlings on focal seedling abundance in 2020; however, the relative average phylogenetic distance between heterospecific seedling neighbors and focal seedlings had a significant negative effect on seedling abundance over the four-year period (2020–2023). Among the habitat factors, only light (canopy opening) had a negative effect on seedling abundance in all four years. Light resources may be a limiting factor for seedlings, and determine seedling dynamics in subtropical forests. Overall, our results demonstrated that phylogenetic density dependence and habitat filtering affected subtropical seedling abundance. Our findings provide new evidence of the impact of phylogenetic density dependence on seedling abundance in a subtropical mid-montane humid evergreen broad-leaved forest and highlight the need to incorporate the neighborhood effect, phylogenetic relatedness, and habitat factors in models assessing seedling abundance.

Understory bamboo removal impacts on woody seedling regeneration in forest ecosystems: a meta-analysis

BackgroundTree seedling regeneration in forests is often hindered by the competitive influence of dense understory bamboo competition. While localized studies have investigated the ecological effects of understory bamboo removal on tree seedlings, a comprehensive analysis at a global scale is lacking. In this meta-analysis, we synthesized 497 observations from 32 experimental studies to assess the overall effects of understory bamboo removal on tree seedling regeneration.ResultsThe results showed that understory bamboo removal enhanced tree seedling survival, emergence, and height growth. However, the response of tree seedlings to bamboo removal varied depending on regeneration characteristics, forest types, and bamboo removal methods. Specifically, understory bamboo removal increased the survival rate of deciduous seedlings but had no significant effect on evergreen seedlings. For regeneration stages, bamboo removal had a significant positive effect on the survival rate of saplings but not on seedlings. Regarding differences across forest types, bamboo removal significantly increased the emergence density of seedlings in deciduous broadleaf forests but had a significant negative influence in evergreen and mixed evergreen-deciduous forests. Additionally, natural removal of bamboo showed a greater positive effect on seedlings than bamboo removal by artificial or animal gnawing methods. Furthermore, we found that the duration of bamboo removal, mean annual temperature, precipitation of seasonality, and soil pH strongly influenced the response ratios of tree seedling regeneration.ConclusionsOur meta-analysis demonstrates the significant effects of understory bamboo removal on multiple facets of tree seedling dynamics across different regeneration characteristics, forest types, and bamboo removal methods. In addition, our study emphasizes that the duration of bamboo removal, climate, and soil pH have a critical effect on tree seedling regeneration. Our findings elucidate the effects of understory bamboo removal on seedling regeneration, offering robust scientific insights for sustainable forest management.

Geographical Peculiarities of Pinus sibirica Du Tour Natural Regeneration as Related to its Seed Crops

Forest ecology faces a significant challenge in understanding the dynamics of populations of forest-forming trees during their renewal phase, as it shapes the subsequent development and structure of forest ecosystems. The forest regeneration process relies on the dynamics of the seed yield of the woody plants and the unique characteristics of their distribution. In the case of the Cembrae sp. five-needled pines belonging, which have wingless seeds, their renewal is closely linked to the activities of Nucifraga sp. birds that scatter the seeds to create food reserves in the soil. This research aims to explore the geographical variations of Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) natural regeneration as a function of seed abundance. This study was conducted in three Russian mountain regions known for their forests predominated by Pinus sibirica: the Aldan Highlands, the Northern Urals, and the Khamar-Daban Mountains. It was discovered that each region exhibited distinct patterns in both cone yields and Pinus sibirica regeneration. The fluctuations in the thin-billed nutcracker (Nucifraga caryocatactes macrorhynchos Brehm C. L.) populations during the seed harvest season, influenced by the nature of the seed production dynamics in each region, we believed to play a major role in the quantity of Pinus sibirica seedlings appearing in the subsequent year. These findings explain the observed variations in the renewal dynamics of annual emergent seedlings of Pinus sibirica and its reliance on cone yield in the examined regions.

Non-structural carbohydrate dynamics of Pinus yunnanensis seedlings under drought stress and re-watering

Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) are an important “buffer” for maintaining plant physiological functions under drought conditions; however, our understanding of the dynamics of NSC at the organ level during sustained drought of varying intensities and re-watering remains poor. In this study, two-year-old Pinus yunnanensis seedlings were subjected to drought and re-watering trials. Plants were subjected to three drought intensities (light drought, moderate drought, and severe drought) as well as control conditions (suitable moisture) for 51 days, including 30 days of drought followed by 21 days of re-watering for drought-treated seedlings, to study the dynamics of NSC in the leaves, stems, coarse roots, and fine roots. Changes in the distribution of NSC concentrations in the organ of P. yunnanensis seedlings under drought stress varied; in the early drought stages, the drought resistance of P. yunnanensis seedlings was enhanced by increasing soluble sugar concentrations; in later stages of drought, the stored starch in organs, stems, and coarse roots was consumed. Drought inhibited the growth of P. yunnanensis seedlings, but the maximum limit of drought tolerance was not reached under the different drought treatments after 30 days. P. yunnanensis seedlings in all treatment groups resumed growth after re-watering, and the growth of seedlings was actually promoted during re-watering in the moderate drought treatment group, indicating that drought induced the compensatory growth of seedlings. The growth of P. yunnanensis seedlings during re-watering was inhibited in the severe drought treatment group, and NSC continued to be regulated in seedlings in this group. Given that P. yunnanensis seedlings maintain growth through the consumption of coarse root starch in the late stages of drought, seedlings with a larger root-to-shoot ratio should be selected for cultivation in actual production. Based on our findings, exposure to moderate drought stress can enhance the drought tolerance of P. yunnanensis seedlings and promote the compensatory growth of seedlings.

Impacts of bamboo dominance and die‐off on seedling dynamics in a tropical secondary forest (Brazil)

AbstractAulonemia aristulata is a tropical bamboo species of mixed rhizome type and monocarpic flowering that can become super‐dominant after anthropogenic disturbances in tropical forests. The synchronized reproductive events of flowering and die‐off of monocarpic bamboo systems provide a rare opportunity to evaluate the temporal effects of bamboo dominance on forest regeneration. To evaluate the effects of bamboo dominance on forest regeneration, we compared the structure (abundance, richness, composition) and dynamics (mortality, recruitment, survival and growth) of tree and shrub seedling communities from two non‐contiguous forests stands (bamboo‐dominated vs. non‐dominated sites) for 2 years, before and after a synchronized reproductive event. Bamboo dominated plots had higher abundance, floristic richness and recruitment of tree and shrub seedlings when compared with bamboo non‐dominated plots. Bamboo die‐off did not represent an opportunity to improve establishment and investment in the vertical growth (height) of seedlings in bamboo‐dominated plots. We postulate that the mode of rhizome extension seen in bamboos might be a consistent trait determining the spatial pattern of occupation and population structure and thereby playing a fundamental role in the pattern of native tree community establishment after bamboo die‐off. The formulation of a management approach is necessary in order to better understand the biological traits of bamboo species and their influence on the spatial pattern of occupation and population structure. Additionally, this influence may differently impact restoration and definition of management practices, including the need for direct intervention by manually controlling bamboo cover following die‐off to promote and maintain seedling establishment and diversity.

Species Diversity and Tree Seedling Dynamics in Moist Evergreen Rain Forest at Khlong Naka Wildlife Sanctuary, Ranong Province

Species Diversity and Tree Seedling Dynamics in Moist Evergreen Rain Forest at Khlong Naka Wildlife Sanctuary, Ranong Province

Climate and fragment area jointly affect the annual dynamics of seedlings in different functional groups in the Thousand Island Lake.

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are the two main threats to global biodiversity. Understanding their combined impact on plant community regeneration is vital for predicting future forest structure and conserving biodiversity. This study monitored the seed production, seedling recruitment and mortality of woody plants in the Thousand Island Lake, a highly fragmented anthropogenic archipelago, for 5 years. We analyzed the seed-seedling transition, seedling recruitment and mortality of different functional groups in the fragmented forests and conducted correlation analyses involving climatic factors, island area, and plant community abundance. Our results showed that: 1) shade-tolerant and evergreen species had higher seed-seedling transition, seedling recruitment and survival rate than shade-intolerant and deciduous species in time and space, and these advantages increased with the island area. 2) Seedlings in different functional groups responded differently to island area, temperature and precipitation. 3) Increasing active accumulated temperature (the sum of the mean daily temperature above 0 °C) significantly increased seedling recruitment and survival, and warming climate favored the regeneration of evergreen species. 4) The seedling mortality rate of all plant functional groups increased with the increase of island area, but the increasing strength weakened significantly with the increase of the annual maximum temperature. These results suggested that the dynamics of woody plant seedlings varied among functional groups, and can be regulated separately and jointly by fragmentation and climate.

Assessing the impact of abiotic and biotic factors on seedling survival in an African montane forest

Tree seedling dynamics underpin subsequent forest structure and diversity as different species/guilds respond variously to abiotic and biotic stresses. Thus, understanding differential seedling responses to stresses helps us to predict forest trajectories. Because forests vary in both environment and species composition, generalisations across tropical forests are difficult. Afromontane forests are important carbon stores, harbour high diversity and provide critical ecosystem services, yet they are vulnerable to climate change. Here, we investigate the importance of key abiotic and biotic factors on survival of seedling guilds along spatial and temporal scales in a montane forest in south-eastern Nigeria. We use data from 318 seedling plots censused every 3 months from 2017 to 2020 to identify seven key abiotic and four biotic factors influencing seedling survival. We used the Kaplan–Meier method to estimate the persistence time of 1,145 seedlings at community and guild levels. At the community level, newly recruited seedlings had a median survival time of 15 months and about 37% of the seedlings sampled where still alive after 24 months. Understory tree species survived significantly longer than the other growth form guilds and seedling survival did not differ across shade tolerance guilds. Conspecific adult density and steeper, more north facing slopes had a negative effect on tree seedlings survival. In addition, tree seedlings that recruited in October (end of wet season/beginning of dry) had lower survival probabilities compared to those that recruited in the other months. Except for initial height, seedling survival in lianas was not impacted by any of the abiotic and biotic variables tested. Our results suggest that under the current environment forest structure and diversity is changing, most noticeably lianas are increasing in abundance relative to trees.

Effects of functional phylogeny of light-response-related orthologous genes on seedling survival in a subtropical forest

BackgroundLight is an important environmental factor affecting the growth and survival of plants in forest communities. The competition for light resources and divergent responses to light may affect plant species co-existence in natural forests through niche partitioning and environmental filtering, respectively. MethodsIn the present study, sequences of light-response-related functional genes were extracted from transcriptomic data of 99 tree species in a subtropical forest and average and nearest taxon phylogenetic diversity of adult (A_Apd’, A_NTpd’) and seedling neighbors (S_Apd’, S_NTpd’) around each focal seedling were calculated to evaluate effects of differentiation in light-response-related genes on community assembly processes. ResultsThe results showed that seedling survival was related to S_NTpd’, S_ Apd’ and A_Apd’ of two chlorophyll ab-binding proteins involved in the assembly of photosystem II and two genes responsive to light intensity, indicating seedlings surrounded by neighbors with distinct light responses tended to have high survival rates. ConclusionsOur results indicated that niche partitioning due to competition for light resources between plants may act as the key mechanism in determining seedling dynamics in subtropical forests.

Biometric indicators of growth and development of Lolium perenne and Trifolium repens in terms of recultivation of soil contaminated with petroleum

The aim of the research was to determine the factors defining the growth and development of Lolium perenne and Trifolium repens upon petroleum contamination. The top layer of clay soil contaminated with petroleum products resulting from an oil pipeline failure was collected for the tests. The control was the same type of uncontaminated soil with the addition of, under laboratory conditions, tissue paper. The research was conducted in two stages. The first concerned the germination process and seedlings parameters (Petri dishes). The germination energy ( GE) and the germination capacity ( GC) of seeds were determined. The seedling’s development was also evaluated based on ‘WinRhizo PRO 2009’ software. Then, in the second stage, pot tests were carried out, where the growth and development of species in the first year after sowing were temporarily measured. The parameters studied were the number, height, green and dry masses of the plants. A Gompertz regression model describing seed species germination and number species as time dependent dynamic was applied. The data were analysed statistically using variance analysis (ANOVA) and the PCA (principal component analysis) method. The results of our study indicated that admixture of petroleum into the soil does not seriously affect the development dynamics of Lolium perenne seedlings. The diesel oil contamination mostly affects the germination of the Trifolium repens by a statistically significant increase of the maximum value of germination and increasing the maximum growth rate.

Effects of El Niño drought on seedling dynamics in a seasonally dry tropical forest in Northern Thailand.

As El Niño is predicted to become stronger and more frequent in the future, it is crucial to understand how El Niño-induced droughts will affect tropical forests. Although many studies have focused on tropical rainforests, there is a paucity of studies on seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs), particularly in Asia, and few studies have focused on seedling dynamics, which are expected to be strongly affected by drought. Seedlings in SDTFs are generally more drought-tolerant than those in the rainforests, and the effects of El Niño-induced droughts may differ between SDTF and tropical rainforests. In this study, we explored the impact of El Niño-induced drought at an SDTF in northern Thailand by monitoring the seedling dynamics at monthly intervals for 7 years, including a period of strong El Niño. The effects were compared between two forest types in an SDTF: a deciduous dipterocarp forest (DDF), dominated by deciduous species, and an adjacent lower montane forest (LMF) with more evergreen species. El Niño-induced drought increased seedling mortality in both the forest types. The effect of drought was stronger in evergreen than in the deciduous species, resulting in higher mortality in the LMF during El Niño. However, El Niño increased seedling recruitment only in the DDF, mainly because of the massive recruitment of the deciduous oak, Quercus brandisiana (Fagaceae), which compensated for the mortality of seedlings in the DDF. As a result, El Niño increased seedling density in the DDF and decreased it in the LMF. This is the first long-term study to identify the differences in the impacts of El Niño on seedlings between the two forest types, and two leaf habits, evergreen and deciduous, in Southeast Asia. Our findings suggest that future climate change may alter the species composition and spatial distribution of seedlings in Asian SDTFs.

Disentangling the effects of biotic neighbors and habitat heterogeneity on seedling survival in a deciduous broad-leaved forest

In forest ecosystems, seedling dynamics play a critical role in understanding species coexistence and community assembly. Exploring the effects of key factors on seedling survival can therefore offer key insights into how they interact to affect seedling mortality in natural forests. Based on 5 years of woody seedling census data and tree census data from a 25-ha permanent forest plot in the subtropical-temperate transitional region in the Qinling Mountains of north-central China, we examined the effects of biotic neighborhood processes and habitat heterogeneity as well as their interactions on seedling mortality using survival data of 11,408 seedlings of 69 species (i.e., 30 tree species and 39 shrub species). The results showed that negative density-dependence (NDD) had significant effects on seedling dynamics and survival at community level. Both biotic and abiotic factors affected seedlingsurvival at different ages, but the influence of negative density-dependence was much more significant, especially on the tree seedlings ≥ 5 years old. For the shrub seedlings, however, biotic factors had a larger effect on their survival than abiotic factors. Thus, we concluded that both habitat heterogeneity and negative density-dependent mortality shaped species coexistence at the seedling stage in the deciduous broad-leaved forest.

Investigation of the direct effect of a precision Ascophyllum nodosum biostimulant on nitrogen use efficiency in wheat seedlings

Reduction in the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and nitrogen (N) pollution of ground water by improving nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) in crops has become an intensively investigated research topic in pursuit of a more sustainable future. Although, distinct solutions have been proposed there are only a few reports documenting the detailed interplay between observed plant growth dynamics and changes in plant N related transcriptional and biochemical changes. It was previously demonstrated that the application of a formulated biostimulant (PSI-362) derived from Ascophyllum nodosum (ANE) improves N uptake in Arabidopsis thaliana and in barley. In this study, the effect of PSI-362 on the growth dynamics of wheat seedlings was evaluated at different biostimulant and N supplementation rates. Wheat grown on N deficient MS medium was also analysed from the first hour of the treatment until the depletion of the nutrients in the medium 9 days later. During this time the biomass increase measured for PSI-362 treated plants versus untreated controls was associated with increased nitrate uptake, with surplus N assimilated by the biomass in the form of glutamate, glutamine, free amino acids, soluble proteins, and chlorophyll. Phenotypical and biochemical analysis were supported by evaluation of differential expression of genetic markers involved in nitrate perception and transport (TaNRT1.1/NPF6.3), nitrate and nitrite reduction (TaNR1 and TaNiR1) and assimilation (TaGDH2, TaGoGAT, TaGS1). Finally, a comparative analysis of the precision biostimulant PSI-362 and two generic ANEs demonstrated that the NUE effect greatly differs depending on the ANE formulation used.

Population structure and dynamics of Pinus koraiensis seedlings regenerated from seeds in a montane region of eastern Liaoning Province, China.

Based on the static life table and survival curve, we explored the population structure and dynamics of Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) seedlings regenerated from seeds in three different forest belts of Korean pine plantation in a montane region of eastern Liaoning Province. The results showed that the age structure of Korean pine seedlings in three different forest belts (i.e., larch forest belt, mixed coniferous forest belt, and mixed broadleaved forest belt) showed a "∩" type of left skewed distribution. The abundance of seedlings was rich but the mortality rate was high in the early phase, and the abundance of seedlings decreased in the later phase, which indicated that the population was depressing. The survival curve of the population conformed to the Deevey-Ⅱ type. The life expectancy of Korean pine seedlings at each age class in larch forest belt was higher than that in mixed coniferous forest belt and mixed broadleaved forest belt. The survival analysis showed that the survival rate of Korean pine seedlings in three different forest belts decreased but the cumulative mortality rate increased with increasing age. The death density function tended to be flat after the age class of Ⅱ-Ⅲ, while the risk function value showed a decreasing trend with the increases of age. The time series predictive analysis showed that the population showed a certain growth trend with increasing age class, indicating that the population could achieve natural regeneration and have a certain growth potential, but with regeneration obstacles.

Supervivencia y crecimiento de plantines de ciprés de la cordillera durante siete años en dos sitios contrastantes de Patagonia norte

Native forestry species enable forest restoration and are a sustainable productive alternative. In any forest plantation —among them, those in which native tree species are used— knowledge on seedling dynamics is highly relevant for planning and management. We describe the seedling dynamics —survival and height growth— of planted ‘ciprés de la cordillera’, a high-value timber species of the Andean-Patagonian forests, in northern Patagonia shrublands. We carried out a 7-years planting experiment (275 seedlings) in two contrasting sites (a valley bottom and a northern-exposure hillside), and each spring we recorded the survival and height of the seedlings. In addition, we evaluated the effect of protecting the seedlings from herbivores and modeled the browsing dynamics. Survival and browsing were evaluated with generalized linear models while height was modeled with a non-linear mixed-effects model from which we quantified the growth rate per seedling. At the valley bottom, survival decreased to <15% at the end of the experiment. Survival was higher in the hillside with north exposure and remained relatively stable. At this site, the values of survival (~70% at year 7) and height growth (rates greater than 15%; MAI ~8 cm/year) were comparable with those of seedlings planted in forests of ‘ciprés de la cordillera’, suggesting that the species could be used for restoration or production in northern hillsides like the one assayed. Seedling protectors reduced browsing, increased survival although not significantly, and diminished growth. Therefore, it is not clear whether seedlings should be protected using the protector type tested in this study. We hope our results contribute to the sustainable management of shrublands and forests of northern Patagonia.

Assessing growth, frost tolerance, and acclimation of pine seedlings with contrasted dormancy strategies as influenced by organic nitrogen supply.

Freezing stress is a critical environmental factor affecting survival, distribution, and evolution of plants. Although there is evidence that nitrogen (N) affects frost tolerance of juvenile conifers, the magnitude and direction of such effect can diverge among species. The influence of the N source on frost tolerance has been barely studied. Particularly, how organic N sources could affect the cold acclimation dynamics of seedlings is poorly understood. We studied morpho-physiological responses to organic N supply (amino acids) in comparison to inorganic N in seedlings of two Mediterranean pine species: Pinus halepensis and P. sylvestris. Fertilization was applied at low and high N doses (30 and 130 mg N seedling-1 ) in the first growing season. Then, tolerance of seedlings to freezing stress was evaluated through the cold season. This study confirmed that organic N supply promotes growth of both species as effectively as inorganic N sources. At low N availability, seedlings had acute phosphorus deficiencies when grown with inorganic N, but not with organic N. Likewise, high organic-N availability improved chlorophylls concentration. Both species increased their frost tolerance through time, especially during late autumn. Although organic N supply did not show clear benefits on frost tolerance, it seemed to enhance cold acclimation via increases of compatible solutes, such as soluble sugars and proline, particularly in P. halepensis. Thus, the effects of organic N supply could depend on the extent that such osmolytes contribute to the dormancy strategy of the species. Other species-specific mechanisms to cope with freezing stress are further discussed.

Logging effects on seedling regeneration and diversity in a tropical moist semi-deciduous forest in Ghana

ABSTRACT The effect of time lag after logging on seedling dynamics was assessed in logged and unlogged forest plots located in the Pra-Anum Forest Reserve. Remnant tree attributes were sampled in six plots with sizes of 25 × 25 m in each forest type. Within each forest type, ten subplots with sizes 1 × 1 m were established for sampling seedling regeneration dynamics. Enumerated seedlings were grouped as pioneer, non-pioneer light demander, and shade-tolerant species. Regenerating seedlings were more diverse in the recently logged forest area characterised by Broussonetia papyrifera and Musanga cecropioides, and least in the unlogged forest driven predominantly by Celtis mildbraedii and Baphia nitida. Pioneer species were primarily dominant in the recently logged forest, while shade-tolerant and non-pioneer light-demanding species characterised the logged-over forest. Species richness and canopy openness of remnant stands explained 32 percent of the variations in regeneration richness between the logged and unlogged areas. Twenty-seven percent of the variations in seedling abundance was also explained by remnant trees richness, their size diameter and the degree to which their canopy has been opened. Logging-induced disturbance favours the sporadic emergence of pioneer species in recently disturbed areas which are later replaced by non-pioneer light-demanding or shade-tolerant species as light becomes limiting in the understory.

Forest Dynamics after Five Decades of Management in the Romanian Carpathians

Research Highlights: Management of the risks forests are exposed to is based on the dynamics of the composition and structure of the stands and the forest. Background and Objectives: This study aimed to document the dynamics of the composition and structure of stands and forest in the Romanian Carpathians over the last five decades, as well as estimate the forecast composition of the forest in the near future (i.e., 2070). Materials and Methods: The obtained results were based on long-term monitoring and analysis of the species and structures in the stands in long-term research areas (over five decades). We performed an inventory of all the trees (on 7.5 ha) in order to characterize the stand structure in sampling plots of 0.25–1.0 ha, located in representative stands of five forest formations. Bitterlich sampling was performed in order to determine the composition of each stand (on 2930.4 ha). The future composition was established in accordance with the characteristics of the natural forest types and was based on seedling dynamics and forest management plans. Results: In mixed beech–coniferous stands, over the last five decades, the area of beech has increased by 38%, while conifers have decreased proportionally—fir by 31% and spruce by 5%. The seedling area increased from 23% to 65%, with fir contributing 22% to the composition and beech 42%. Stand density decreased by an average of 14%, with the current increment decreasing by 3.8%. The slenderness index for fir decreased from 73 to 61. In the near future, there will be an increase in the proportion of fir, from 15 to 33%, and a reduction in beech, from 49 to 45%. The proportion of spruce will be reduced from 17 to 12%. Conclusions: Based on the forest dynamics, management adaptation strategies need to be developed to improve the stability of the forest ecosystems.

Closing the life cycle of forest trees: The difficult dynamics of seedling‐to‐sapling transitions in a subtropical rainforest

Abstract Experimental and observational studies on seedling dynamics posit mechanisms that can influence forest diversity, structure and function. However, high mortality and slow growth of seedlings make it difficult to evaluate the importance of this life‐history filter to total tree life history. Quantifying the duration and transition of the seedling phase would help us understand this ‘black box’ in tree population biology. We used a 16‐year dataset of comprehensive seedling‐to‐sapling demography from a subtropical rainforest to construct population models that capture temporal demographic fluctuations for eight major tree species. We used data‐driven demographic models and simulations to estimate the transition ratios from newly recruited seedlings to saplings of 2‐m height and the time taken to attain 2‐m height for a newly recruited seedling conditional on its survival. Projections among species estimated that as few as 57 to more than 40,000 seedlings (with a median of 2,087) were required to make a single 2‐m high sapling. Furthermore, it would take 22–200 years (with a median of 47) for a newly recruited seedling to become a 2‐m high sapling. We found that temporal variation in demographic rates could greatly reduce the number of seedlings per established sapling, but not passage times (PTs). We also identified the importance of consistently fast growth rates for seedlings to escape the high mortality of early stages. Synthesis. Our findings demonstrate that high mortality in the very early seedling stage severely limits the probability that a newly recruited seedling will transition to the sapling stage. Although the PTs vary, we found this to be true across species with a range of life‐history strategies. Only seedlings with consistently fast growth rates are expected to pass through this life‐history filter. Findings from seedling studies should consider how short‐term studies of seedling demography might capture the rare exceptional individuals and exceptional conditions that might define the dynamics of this seedling bottleneck.