Security Calculus Research Articles

Strategic Dynamics of the Arms Race in South Asia

The relationship between the nuclear arms race and strategic stability has been important for scholars, politicians, and journalists who have shown keen interest in what causes a state to augment its military power and its effects on its rivalries with other states. As emerging technologies continue to change the security calculus of the states, the arms race is on for investing in the development and acquisition of offensive and defensive technologies in South Asia. The Indian strategic cooperation with the technologically advanced countries and the increase in the defense budget confirm its military modernization while upsetting the delicacies of the conventional military balance in South Asia. This study gives a substantive background to the developments and technological advancements in the post overt nuclearization era (1998) in the context of complications posed by India’s persistent animus dominandi to outpace Pakistan in an anarchic structure vis-à-vis its impact on strategic instability in South Asia by making a comprehensive analysis of an unending arms race for the maintenance of credible minimum deterrence.

An analysis of Pak-Russia relations in the evolving new regional order: 2013-2022

As regional political order has been shifting, Pakistan is faced with the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan and its aftereffects, Indian inference in the region political paradigm, the building of new trilateral cooperative blocs in the regional context, and the threat of fifth-generation and hybrid warfare. Therefore, the study is designed to interpret and evaluate Pakistan-Russian foreign policy achievements and their futuristic consequences. The occurrence of multiple political events like hybrid warfare from a geo-strategic perspective has signalled major geopolitical and socio-economic competition in the global market; for which Pakistan and Russia are gearing up. Given existing geopolitical compulsions like Moscow’s quest for playing a decisive role in Afghanistan’s security calculus, Pakistan’s pursuit of coming out of the US straitjacket and finding alternative regional partners offer the reasons, challenges, and outlook for reshaping ties. Pakistan and Russia require a balanced strategic plan to counter the regional threats after the departure of NATO forces from Afghan soil. This article also discusses the core socio-economic strategies between Pakistan and Russia for diluting their gaps. The main point which can play a vital role in creating a close bilateral nexus between both states is the decisive foreign policy initiative from both ends.

Sino-US Global Competitive Dynamics Post 9/11 and its Impacts on Pakistan's Security

In this paper we examine the security implications for Pakistan after the engagement of two powerful states, China and United States. After the incident of September 11, 2001 (9/11) and their security impacts in the capacity of Pakistan's domestic and peripheral front. Their rivalry in the 21st century at the geo strategic, geopolitical and geo-economic level have been explained on the basis of realism, neo-realism and complex interdependence philosophies of international relations. The drastic political and strategic change in the status of Kashmir propelled Pakistan and China to review their foreign policies in future. In response, China wants Pakistan a strategic partner to closely look onto Afghanistan's political crisis during and after the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan. However, the strategic relationship nuclear partnership between America and India has allowed the Sino-Pak strategic and nuclear partnership to level the magnitude of the United States' influence in South Asia. The issue of cross border terrorism, infiltration from Afghanistan and Indian espionage policy further sabotaged peace and security calculus in Pakistan's internal and external levels. India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership has further deteriorated Pakistan's relations with Afghanistan.

China as a Revisionist Power in Indo-Pacific and India’s Perception: A Power-Partner Contention

ABSTRACT Debate concerning China’s emergence as a revisionist power has taken a more direct shape under the Donald Trump administration in the United States. Such a debate is not as prevalent in India even though New Delhi began perceiving Beijing’s assertive rise long-ago with caution. India’s deductions of China as a revisionist power are drawn on its national security calculus and the anticipatory challenges it faces from China in the land and maritime domain that threatens the status-quo of the region. In other words, India's perception of China in Indo-Pacific is much more constructive, drawn on a dualist outlook of power-partner contention, that comes both as a challenge as well as opportunity.

Naya Pakistan?

Naya Pakistan? The Selected Issues of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy in View of the Transformations in the Regional Security The Islamic Republic of Pakistan faces many internal and external challenges and remains a major point of reference in contemporary international security analysis. This article examines selected issues relating to Pakistan’s foreign policy contextualized within the transformations in the security dynamics of South Asia. The specificity of the security environment in South Asia, the least politically and economically integrated region of the world, engaged in the protracted Kashmir conflict, serves as the starting point for the multi-dimensional study of the key objectives of Pakistan’s foreign strategy towards its neighbouring states, such as India, China and Afghanistan. Methodological approach for this research is based on offensive realism, which seems to present the appropriate explanatory tool for studying the South Asian securityrelated specificity. The naya (new) Pakistan narrative, promoted by the Prime Minister Imran Khan seems hardly a game-changing chapter in the history of the state. Analysis of Pakistan’s current policies, persistent domination of the army over the state’s bureaucracy, increasing dependency on external loans and bailouts provokes rather opposite conclusions. Pakistan’s strategic goals vis-à-vis Afghanistan and India exploit its own resources and strongly affect the regional security system whilst the country has no adequate means to achieve them. Consequently, there is a vital need of a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s regional security calculus from ideologically motivated, unfeasible claims to a more cooperative posture, supplemented by campaigns for de-radicalization. This research study was conducted during seven trips to Pakistan during the last decade; the results and conclusions of this study were discussed and debated with academics and other South Asia experts both in Asia and in Europe.

Pakistan-Russia Relations Redux: From Estrangement to Pragmatism

Pakistan-Russia relations have a complex history of divergences, contradictions and ambiguities that heightened during the Cold War and subsequent era of Afghan Jihad. However, the gradual rapprochement that paved the way for institutionalised engagement started after Pakistan joined the war against terrorism. Based on secondary review of academic and online sources, this article explores how relations between the two countries evolved from estrangement to institutional engagement, with a special focus on why this relationship is significant for both. Economic, energy, defence, counterterrorism, and socio-cultural domains are the important variables that are discussed. Given existing geopolitical compulsions like Moscow‟s quest for playing a decisive role in Afghanistan‟s security calculus; Pakistan‟s pursuit for coming out of the United States‟ straitjacket and finding alternative regional partners offer the reasons, challenges and outlook in shaping prospective ties. It is argued that Pakistan-Russia ties are likely to improve in the future, especially in terms of economic, defence and counterterrorism cooperation.

Emerging Paradigm of the Indian Ocean: Arihant’s Prowl and its Regional Implications

The Indian Ocean has traditionally been less contentious with respect to nuclear issues but recent fielding of the nuclear submarine by India has introduced a new dimension in the strategic stability of the region. Though the development of nuclear submarine is China-centric, yet, the littoral states of the Indian Ocean have started feeling perturbed. The Indian ambitious naval expansion plan, aligned with its evolving maritime strategy, has adversely affected the security dynamics of the Indian Ocean. Thus, the Indian Ocean has become an avenue of the intersecting interests of many regional (China and India) and extra-regional states. The predominant interest of extra-regional powers has been economic, embedded in the security concerns. In response to the Indian nuclear explosions in 1998, Pakistan compelled to became an overt nuclear state, yet, had no inclinations for taking nuclearisation to sea. However, the extraordinary development of induction of nuclear submarine in the Indian naval inventory has forced many regional states to premeditate their options in line with their security calculus and compulsions, which has resulted in the emergence of a new paradigm of strategic competition between India and China in the Indian Ocean.

China’s Maritime Security Strategy: An Assessment Of The White Paper On Asia-Pacific Security Cooperation

ABSTRACTIn January 2017, China released its first ever White Paper on Asia-Pacific security cooperation, which sought to embolden Beijing’s (littoral) leadership in the region. Highlighting maritime security in the Asia-Pacific as a regional hotspot, the policy paper called for the establishment of a favourable regional order by underlining the merits of cooperative security. Simultaneously, it also sought to entrench China’s sovereign interests by displaying a ‘reactive assertiveness’ in the maritime domain. Referring to the South China Sea (SCS) dispute in particular, the paper declared that while China remained committed to upholding freedom of navigation in the SCS, it would also not shy away from making a “necessary response" to violation of its territorial integrity. Beijing’s desire to enhance its economic and military influence in the maritime domain understandably has an effect on the security calculus of the Asia-Pacific. In response to China's growing military capabilities and assertiveness in international waters, other regional players have also been emboldened or forced to stake territorial claims in the interest of their sovereignty. The consequent insecurity, tension and power play is likely to have a destabilising effect on the region. It is in this context that this paper attempts to analyse China’s maritime security strategy as outlined in the White Paper, on three counts: by analysing threat perceptions from the Chinese perspective, by outlining the need to build a comprehensive maritime security framework that addresses the interests of all stakeholders in the region and, finally, by analysing security implications for India.

Speculative futures: Cities, data, and governance beyond smart urbanism

In this paper, I examine the convergence of big data and urban governance beyond the discursive and material contexts of the smart city. I argue that in addition to understanding the intensifying relationship between data, cities, and governance in terms of regimes of automated management and coordination in ‘actually existing’ smart cities, we should further engage with urban algorithmic governance and governmentality as material-discursive projects of future-ing, i.e., of anticipating particular kinds of cities-to-come. As urban big data looks to the future, it does so through the lens of an anticipatory security calculus fixated on identifying and diverting risks of urban anarchy and personal harm against which life in cities must be securitized. I suggest that such modes of algorithmic speculation are discernible at two scales of urban big data praxis: the scale of the body, and that of the city itself. At the level of the urbanite body, I use the selective example of mobile neighborhood safety apps to demonstrate how algorithmic governmentality enacts digital mediations of individual mobilities by routing individuals around ‘unsafe’ parts of the city in the interests of technologically ameliorating the risks of urban encounter. At the scale of the city, amongst other empirical examples, sentiment analytics approaches prefigure ephemeral spatialities of civic strife by aggregating and mapping individual emotions distilled from unstructured real-time content flows (such as Tweets). In both of these instances, the urban futures anticipated by the urban ‘big data security assemblage’ are highly uneven, as data and algorithms cannot divest themselves of urban inequalities and the persistence of their geographies.

Strategic Ambiguities in Indian Nuclear Doctrine Implications for Pakistan's Security

Sequel to overt nuclearization in 1998, India announced its Draft Nuclear Doctrine on 17 August 1999 which was reviewed and updated by the Indian Cabinet Committee on Security in January, 2003. This paper will critically examine the broad contours of India's nuclear doctrine and trace the consequences on the security calculus of Pakistan. It reveals that Indian Nuclear Doctrine suffers from strategic ambiguities. These ambiguities, whether deliberate or a result of sketchy manifestation, detriments Pakistan's security calculus in complex ways.

Afghanistan's India–Pakistan dilemma: advocacy coalitions in weak states

This article seeks to examine the foreign policy behaviour of weak states in regions marked by politically turbulent geostrategic environments. An analysis of Afghanistan's foreign policy behaviour vis-à-vis Pakistan and India lends focus to this aim. India–Pakistan rivalry has gained traction as a key factor in determining Afghanistan's stability in the wake of the drawdown of Coalition forces. Missing from this debate, however, is consideration of Afghanistan's agency as a weak state with an independent set of policy preferences. Based on primary interviews with a diverse set of Afghan political actors the article outlines two competing policy advocacies: Pakistan friendly and Pakistan averse. The article argues that these advocacies are key to understanding Afghanistan's India–Pakistan dilemma. Departing from the ethnic lens used to explain Afghan politics and its regional linkages, this article shows that Kabul's relations with Islamabad determine its approach towards New Delhi regardless of ethnic rivalries. Understanding domestic Afghan narratives in this regional context is therefore imperative to adequately assess South Asia's prospective security calculus.

US Allies Respond

Japan, Australia, and South Korea, the three closest Asia-Pacific allies of the United States, have all reacted differently to the modernisation of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, depending on the immediate security situation that each faces. In Japan, which has been most directly affected by PLA Navy operations and other military capabilities, the response has been the most direct: increased investment in maritime and surveillance capabilities while also enhancing cooperation with the US and other like-minded partners in the region. For Canberra, the Chinese threat is still distant, but even down under, the reach and actions of the PLA are raising concerns, leading to plans for augmentation of military forces and a welcoming of permanently deployed US troops. Finally, in South Korea, the DPRK remains the primary threat, though China’s recent unflinching support for Pyongyang has led to discussions about whether or not that decades-old security calculus should be re-evaluated.

Indian Armed Forces and Space Technology

The Indian space program, which was started with a modest mandate in the early 1960s, has today become a leader in the developing world. India's space program is civilian in orientation and has a major socioeconomic developmental focus. India also has an interest in lunar and planetary exploration missions: it has already successfully undertaken its first Moon mission. Nuclear India's growing international stature gives it strategic relevance, both regionally and globally. Satellite technology, being inherently dual-use, has applicability for strategic purposes too. Modern-day military preparation demands dependence on space assets for communication, navigation and reconnaissance. This article attempts to understand how India is trying to factor space into its overall security calculus. With changing threat perceptions, it is becoming important for the Indian armed forces to increase its dependence on space assets. Currently, the mandate for the state's civilian space program, cost considerations, technology transfer and other geopolitical concerns are limiting India's foray into the military space arena. India's position as regards conducting an anti-satellite test has also not yet been clearly articulated.

The Geo-strategy of Oil in the Gulf of Guinea: Implications for Regional Stability

This study highlights the security implications of the rising geo-strategic prominence of West Africa’s Gulf of Guinea (GG) oil, deriving from the security calculus of the major oil-consuming countries. It argues that the extension of the traditional militaristic approach to energy security by major oil-consuming countries, particularly the US, to energy affairs in the GG will reignite the global arms race involving other major oil consumers including China. The logic being that energy-hungry China and others are also likely to respond with their own militaristic strategies to safeguard their own supplies in the GG. All of that will flood the sub-region with arms and weapons and further destabilize weak or fragile states in the sub-region. To avoid that situation and forestall the attendant consequences to states and inhabitants of the sub-region, the paper recommends that efforts must be made to entrench consistent dialogue, good governance and investment in human capital development.

Japan's Nuclear Policy at Crossroads

The emerging changes in the security calculus within the Korean Peninsula are forcing Japan to revisit its existing position on the nuclear issue. The changing security environment has triggered several debates within Japan on the nuclearisation of the island nation. Although, at present, domestic opinion within Japan is opposed to exercising the nuclear option, there has been a break in the hitherto established taboo to have an open debate on the country's nuclear policy. These debates have triggered thinking on the circumstances in which Japan might choose to cross the nuclear rubicon.

India´ s Geopolitics and Southeast Asian Security

slowly. The debate on India's rise and its implications for Asian and global balance of power centres around the new expectations and residual scepticism about the sustainability of India's recent impressive economic performance — of around 8 per cent annual growth rates during the first decade of the twenty-first century. If India can maintain this performance, India's political and military weight in Southeast Asia will undoubtedly improve. The last few years have also seen the maturation of India's Look East policy launched in the mid-1990s. The expectations on India's rise have also begun to inject a new dynamism into India's relations with the great powers of Asia — the United States, China, and Japan. As a result, India is no longer marginal to either the regional politics of Southeast Asia nor the great power system that shapes it. For the first time since the mid-1950s, when its economy turned inward and its foreign policy drew closer to the Soviet bloc, India is now becoming an important factor in the security calculus of Southeast Asia.

The cohesion and stability of Pakistan: an introduction to the special issue

Pakistan is becoming increasingly important in international security calculus, and the future trajectory of this nuclear weapons' state on the front line of the ‘War on Terror’ is of profound significance not only for South Asia but also for the international community. This article introduces an inaugural set of papers from the Pakistan Security Research Unit, established in 2007 at the University of Bradford, UK, focused on the cohesion and stability of Pakistan. The papers look at both the role of external players such as the United States and Afghanistan and at internal dynamics in Pakistan, with a particular emphasis on the role of the Pakistan military, on Kashmir and on jihadis (self-styled holy warriors) in the tribal belt.

Radical Islamic Organisations in Europe: South Asia in Their Discourse

In the European security calculus, terrorism has become one of the key strategic threats. Alarmingly, the continent has also become a centre of radical Islamist propaganda and activism, with a number of European countries worried over the potential of their own ‘home-grown’ religious extremists. Latest studies indicate a disturbing trend of a section of the youth, generally belonging to the Muslim communities of West African and South Asian origin from a poor or middle class socioeconomic background, embracing extremism and terrorism in Europe. This article examines the agenda of some prominent radical Islamic organisations, namely, ‘Hizb ut-Tahrir’ and ‘Al-Muhajiroun’, active in Europe, which also have South Asia in their focus. Taking advantage of the communications revolution, these organisations have succeeded in establishing an effective propaganda network. A silent radicalisation of young Muslims in Europe is also influencing Muslim youth in the subcontinent because of the inter-linkages and continuous propaganda established through the Internet.

Security of Sea Lines: Prospects for India–Japan Cooperation

Ensuring access to crude oil and natural gas forms a crucial component of India's security calculus. It also critically underlines the significance of sea transportation through which much of these vital resources are traded. With India virtually insular in terms of its land communications, its trade interests are increasingly focused on the maritime domain. Its vital interests in the security of sea routes at the same time are beginning to converge with those of Japan, the economic powerhouse of Asia, which being an island state is critically dependent on Pacific and Indian Ocean ‘maritime lifelines’ not only for its energy imports but also for much of its food and other vital resource supplies. As the Indian economy grows, the strategic congruence between the two states is likely to strengthen because of two factors; first, the growing Asian economic integration, and second, the geographic locations of India and Japan vis-à-vis the global distribution of potential sources of strategic commodities.

The Security Threat of Asia's Sex Ratios

demographics has become a new subfield of Security Studies in recent years, as scholars have begun to envision the security implications of long-term demographic change. This subfield provides important new insight into the problem of population, social stability and conflict, but our research suggests that an additional demographic factor must be taken into account when assessing social stability and security of a state—that of sex ratios. What are the security implications for a population whose males, particularly those of the young adult population, significantly outnumber females? China and India, as well as several other Asian states, are currently undergoing various demographic transitions, one of the most important being the increasingly high sex ratios of young segments of these populations. We argue that internal instability is heightened in nations displaying the high level of exaggerated gender inequality indicated by high sex ratios, leading to an altered security calculus for the state. Possibilities of meaningful democracy and peaceful foreign policy are diminished as a result. The high sex ratios in China and India in particular have implications for the long-term security of these nations and the Asian region more broadly.