Regional Security Research Articles

Assessing regional energy security characteristics: Evidence from Chinese province-level data

Energy security is an essential driver of economic growth and social well-being. Countries worldwide are facing threats to their energy independence stemming from climate change, geopolitical instability, and rising energy prices. Given the significance of China's economy, any threat to its energy security is likely to have a negative impact on the global economy. We assess regional energy security in China using a panel of provinces for the period 2000–2019. We rely on multiple factors likely to affect regional energy independence to define an index of energy security. The entropy weight method, Dagum Gini ratio decompositions, and kernel density estimates are subsequently used to assess the differences in energy security levels across China's regions and their evolution over time. Our results provide evidence of a gradual decline in China's overall energy security, accompanied by increasing disparities in regional energy independence over time. Notably, more than half of the total gap in energy security can be attributed to regional differences among China's eastern, central, western, and northeastern provinces. In addition to their relevance to policymakers in China, our findings provide insights into strategies other developing countries can use to promote their energy independence.

Enhancing energy security and efficiency through a regional integration policy: The case of the Southern Cone

This paper addresses the knowledge gap concerning foreign exchange risk in energy transactions within the Regional Initiative Energy Integration System of the Southern Cone Countries (SIESUR) of the Latin American region. Focusing on the cross-border electricity, it investigates the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the transaction model in SIESUR: US dollar-denominated cross-border energy contracts with a time lag between invoicing and payment. The objective of this paper is to estimate foreign exchange risk exposure and propose mitigation solutions. Analyzing foreign exchange risk of energy trading among SIESUR member countries reveals substantial financial costs hindering electricity integration. Energy importing countries, facing greater exposure of their local currencies and weakened bargaining power, are particularly vulnerable. A Monte Carlo simulation model, using historical exchange rate data, highlights significant currency volatility, emphasizing the substantial foreign exchange risk exposure within SIESUR. Notably, cost overruns of energy imports due to foreign exchange risk exposure can reach 12.6% of transaction value. Through a global analysis, potential strategies for risk management are explored to foster electricity exchange expansion. Efforts to mitigate foreign exchange risk are crucial for advancing electricity integration within the SIESUR region. This study underscores policy implications for enhancing regional energy security and promoting sustainable development.

Identification of Land Use Conflict Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation—Taking the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration as an Example

Land use conflict is an inevitable and objective phenomenon during regional development, with significant impacts on both regional economic growth and ecological security. Scientifically assessing the spatiotemporal evolution of these conflicts is essential to optimize land use structures and promote sustainable resource utilization. This study employs multi-period land use/land cover remote sensing data from China to develop a model for the measurement of land use conflict from the perspective of the landscape ecological risk. By applying the optimal landscape scale method to determine the most appropriate analysis scale, this research investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use conflicts in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, by integrating the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model with the Multi-Objective Programming (MOP) algorithm, this study simulates the spatial patterns of land use conflict in 2030 under four scenarios: Natural Development (ID), Economic Development (ED), Ecological Conservation (PD), and Sustainable Development (SD). The findings reveal that, from 2000 to 2020, the proportion of areas with strong and moderately strong conflict levels in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration increased by 2.19%, while the proportion of areas with weak and moderately weak conflict levels decreased by 1.45%, underscoring the growing severity of land use conflict. The predictions for 2030 suggest that the spatial pattern of conflict under various scenarios will largely reflect the trends observed in 2020. Under the ID scenario, areas with weak and moderately weak conflict levels constitute 57.5% of the region; this increases by 0.85% under the SD scenario. Conversely, areas experiencing strong and moderately strong conflict levels, which stand at 33.02% under the ID scenario, decrease by 1.04% under the SD scenario. These projections indicate that the SD scenario, which aims to balance ecological conservation with economic development, effectively mitigates land use conflict, making it the most viable strategy for future regional development.

Study on the Spatial–Temporal Variation of Groundwater Depth and Its Impact on Vegetation Coverage in Ejina Oasis

Ejina, a representative inland river basin situated in the arid region of northwest China, exhibits a delicate ecological environment and its vegetation coverage is intrinsically linked to regional ecological security. Based on MOD13Q1-NDVI data from 2018 to 2023 and groundwater depth monitoring data during the same period, this study analyzed the spatial–temporal variation characteristics of vegetation coverage and its relationship with groundwater depth in Ejina. It is found that the vegetation coverage in Ejina is generally low and mainly distributed along the riverbanks in the form of strips. During the study period, the overall trend of vegetation coverage showed a fluctuating pattern of first increasing and then decreasing, revealing the fragility of the regional ecology. The groundwater depth shows the characteristic of being higher in the east river than the west, and the trend of groundwater depth along the river flow is first increasing and then decreasing. The spatial groundwater depth indicates that the east river is higher than that of the west river, and the groundwater depth along the river flow first increases and then decreases. In terms of inter-annual changes, the groundwater depth experiences a process of first decreasing and then stabilizing. Further analysis indicates that vegetation growth and coverage in Ejina are significantly affected by water conditions, and areas with high Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values are mainly distributed along the riverbanks. In addition, there is a certain degree of correlation between groundwater depth and NDVI. When the depth of groundwater is too deep or too shallow, the positive correlation between NDVI and groundwater depth increases slightly and the negative correlation decreases slightly. The findings of this study are of great significance for understanding and predicting the response of vegetation coverage to groundwater changes in arid areas, and provide a scientific basis for water resources management and ecological protection in Ejina.

The Impact of China's Coast Guard on Indo‐Pacific Security from the Perspective of a Maritime Power

In 2024, the China Coast Guard (CCG) invoked China Coast Guard Regulation No. 3 to detain Taiwanese fishing boats twice in disputed waters. The positive actions of the CCG can be looked back to 2019. The CCG entered the waters of the Diaoyu islands in Japan twelve times and carried out cruises on the Diaoyu islands. It is necessary to study the follow-up actions of the CCG and their impact on Indo-Pacific security. This study examines the effect of the CCG's maritime rights protection on the security of the Indo-Pacific region when the People's Republic of China (China) becomes a maritime power. It was changed to the Maritime Police Corps of the Chinese People's Armed Police Force to integrate the business of marine surveillance, fishery administration, customs, border defense, and other units. The reason for the gradual expansion of powers and the impact of its strong protection of maritime rights and interests on neighboring countries. The research results can help us understand the current situation of the CCG and further evaluate China's ability to achieve maritime power. This paper finds that China intends to implement regular patrols in disputed waters by increasing the tonnage of coast guard ships, strengthening rights protection, and militarizing organizations to demonstrate maritime power. On the other hand, this move triggered a maritime police competition among neighboring countries, and even a naval and air force arms race, intensified disputes between China and neighboring countries, especially the East China Sea and South China Sea issues, and made the security of the Indo-Pacific region more turbulent and complicated.

The Belt and Road Initiative: Geopolitical Implications for South Asia

Abstract: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been initiated in China in 2013 as a transformative global infrastructure and development endeavor involving more than 70 nations. Aside from its economic and financial implications, however, the BRI is often also perceived as Chinas expansionist strategy in increasing soft power. With South Asia playing a pivotal role due to its strategic position and growing economic potential, this paper examines the geopolitical implications of the BRI and Chinese influence in the region. The study explores BRI projects with case studies, revealing how the initiative both offers prospects for economic growth and highlights challenges around sovereignty, debt dependency, and regional security, especially in a region marked by historical rivalries and political complexities. Particular attention is given to the effects of the BRI on the power balance between China, India, and other South Asian nations, as well as its broader impact on strategic partnerships and regional dynamics. Through an analysis of key BRI projects in South Asia and its implications, this paper assesses both the opportunities and challenges the initiative presents, offering insights into the enduring geopolitical consequences for the region.

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Policy Under MBS: Transition from Defensive Realism to Offensive Realism (2016-2023)

This study seeks to elucidate the underlying factors driving Saudi Arabia’s shift from defense realism to offensive realism, focusing on MBS’s authoritarian rule and structural reforms aimed at minimizing bureaucratic hurdles in security and defense decision-making. The research examines the kingdom’s transition from conservative foreign policies to a more activist stance, illustrated by its support for Palestine and its adoption of non-conventional approaches to address emerging challenges. Adopting the John Scott document analysis model and utilizing secondary data, this study delves into the nuances of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy shift under MBS’s leadership. It examines how his leadership style, combined with Vision 2030 goals and objectives, reflects a post-ideologically motivated transition that seeks to assert power and influence in the Middle East. The research explores the potential implications of this shift on regional security, including the Yemen civil war, balance of power realignment, and Saudi Arabia’s relationships with Western partners.

Peran Association of South East Asian Nation (ASEAN) dalam Mengatasi Transnational Human Trafficking di Asia Tenggara

Introduction: ASEAN, as a regional organization in Southeast Asia, aims to maintain security and stability in the ASEAN region, including addressing human trafficking.Purposes of the Research: The purpose of this study is to analyze and understand ASEAN's role in handling Transnational Human Trafficking in Southeast Asia.Methods of the Research: This study uses a normative juridical method with primary, secondary, and tertiary legal materials.Results of the Research: The research findings indicate that ASEAN has institutions such as SOMTC and ASEAN-ACT, and legal instruments such as the ASEAN Declaration Against Human Trafficking in Persons, Particularly Women and Children, APA, and ACTIP. Despite the principle of non-intervention, which can be a hindrance in some aspects of addressing human trafficking, ASEAN, through these institutions and mechanisms, has carried out its role and responsibility to maintain the stability of the Southeast Asian region

Photosynthetic efficiency and water retention in okra (Abelmoschus esculentus) contribute to tolerance to single and combined effects of drought and heat stress.

The co-occurrence of drought and heat significantly hampers plant productivity. Although their impacts are well studied, these studies have been based on the effects of individual stressors rather than their combined influence. Okra is crucial for food and nutritional security and livelihoods in many regions, yet it remains under-researched and unimproved. Okra has been proven to be sensitive to both drought and heat stress. This study employed a cost-effective phenotyping method to assess key traits characterising the diversity of okra morphophysiological responses to independent and interactive heat-drought stresses. This study aimed to understand okra responses to stress, identify stress-resilient traits, and characterise okra genotypes. We also addressed the need to examine interactive stress effects, which mirror real-world scenarios more accurately than single-stress studies. Sixty-three okra genotypes were subjected to heat, drought, or concurrent heat-drought stress at the seedling stage in improvised climate-controlled chambers. The germplasm exhibited significant variations in response to the various stresses. The broad-sense heritability was high (> 0.60) for traits such as chlorophyll content, plant biomass, performance indices, electrolyte leakage, and total leaf area. Drought stress alone had a more pronounced effect than heat stress alone, and the adverse impact was worsened under combined heat and drought stress. The interactive impact of drought and heat was more likely additive than antagonistic or synergistic. A positive and strong relationship was observed between photosynthetic efficiency parameters such as the Fv/Fm ratio, chlorophyll content, relative water index, and biomass parameters such as dry shoot weight. The 63 okra genotypes were classified into three distinct clusters, suggesting potential for future breeding efforts. Okra genotype considered to be tolerant or climate resilient (such as GH170, V1060831, GH174, V1060874, and GH106) to drought and heat, maintained enhanced photosynthetic efficiency and high internal water potential, possibly reducing osmotic and oxidative damage. This study revealed some mechanisms underlying the adaptation of okra genotypes to independent and combined heat and drought stress. The results provide a basis for breeding efforts to develop climate-resilient okra varieties.

MIGRATION SECURITY AS A COMPONENT OF CORPORATE SECURITY

A new element has been added to the components of corporate security - migration security. The proposed new author's terms for our scientific community - "migration security" will facilitate future research in the field of the impact of migration processes on the security of regions and business organizations.

Grain supply–demand in countries along the “Belt and Road” from 1993 to 2021: spatiotemporal evolution, match, security and driving mechanism

IntroductionThe grain supply-demand balance is a long-standing concern for many countries and is essential to guaranteeing social stability, maintaining economic development and ensuring national grain security.MethodsBased on the data of 65 countries along the “Belt and Road” (B&R) from 1993 to 2021, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution, the matching relationship, regional grain security situation and driving factors of grain supply-demand by measuring and classifying the grain self-sufficiency rate using methods such as geostatistical analysis and the GTWR model.ResultsThe results indicated the following: (1) The B&R region was still at the primary stage of “food-based and feed-supplemented”. Grain supply and demand in the B&R region showed a steady upward trend, with grain yield contributing more to grain supply than sown area. (2) Overall, the B&R region has been largely self-sufficient since 2007, with grain supply meeting demand, but the level of grain self-sufficiency varied considerably between countries. (3) More than 58% of the countries were in grain insecurity, concentrated in West Asia-Middle East and South-East Asia. The gravity center of both grain supply and demand was near East Asia. (4) In terms of matching supply-demand, most countries fell into the category of high supply-high demand and low supply-low demand, with basically the same level of grain supply and demand. (5) Grain yield had the largest positive impact on grain supply-demand, GDP had the largest negative impact, and temperature change and precipitation change had a relatively small effect. The effects of fertilizer use, grain yield, and GDP on grain supply-demand fluctuated greatly over time.DiscussionThese findings can provide a scientific basis for the country to formulate policies for a sustainable grain supply-demand system.

Evolution and Transformation of Security Patterns in Central Asia in the Context of Chinese Institutional Building

The regional security system in Central Asia is complex. The geopolitical conflict between Russia and the West around Ukraine has had a serious strategic shift in the balance of power and, as a consequence, changes in the architecture of the regional security system. Strategically, this means that Central Asia, as part of the wider post-Soviet space, is undergoing a transition from a Euro-centric to an Asia-centric model with the increasing role of China. Russia and China, as two leading geopolitical actors, have their own security patterns, and at the moment, these security patterns are evolving, in the context of the formation of new regional security mechanisms with the strengthening of the role of China as a leading regional power and security provider.

Unraveling the gender wage gap: Exploring early career patterns among university graduates

AbstractA large body of literature has shown that the gender wage gap is small in the first years after graduation and increases gradually with age, largely because of family decisions, often a penalty caused by childbirth. However, the gender wage gap immediately after graduation has received less attention. Using a unique dataset that links 5000 university graduates with master's degrees or equivalent from a large German university to detailed employment records from the German social security register, we specifically analyze the gender wage gap at the first job and its dynamics during the initial years of their careers after graduation. We find that a significant gender wage gap already exists in the first job after graduation, even before most young individuals make family decisions. However, this gender wage gap decreases in the first year after entering the labor market and then increases slowly over time. We attribute this initial decrease in the gender wage gap to female university graduates experiencing greater returns from firm and occupational changes than their male counterparts. This suggests that women may use these changes to address skill mismatches, which are more common among women than men in their first job.

PROSPECTS FOR THE INTEGRATION OF UKRAINE'S NATIONAL SECURITY MECHANISMS WITH THE COLLECTIVE SECURITY SYSTEMS OF THE EU AND NATO

This article examines the prospects for integrating Ukraine's national security mechanisms with the collective security systems of the European Union and NATO. The study addresses the current challenges and opportunities arising from Ukraine's efforts to align its national security policy with the standards and requirements of international security organizations. The analysis underscores the significance of this integration in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions and the necessity for enhanced cooperation in safeguarding national and regional security. Utilizing a qualitative research methodology, the article employs a comprehensive literature review, analyzing existing frameworks, policies, and strategic documents relevant to Ukraine's security landscape. Comparative analysis is also applied to assess the effectiveness of Ukraine's security initiatives against those of EU and NATO member states, identifying best practices that can be adapted to the Ukrainian context. The findings reveal critical areas of cooperation, including military interoperability, intelligence sharing, and joint training exercises, which are essential for strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities. The article further explores the legal, institutional, and operational frameworks necessary for harmonizing Ukraine's security strategies with those of its partners, emphasizing the importance of aligning legislative measures and defense policies with EU and NATO standards. In conclusion, the article advocates for a strategic approach to integration that prioritizes resilience and adaptability within Ukraine's national security mechanisms. By enhancing collaboration with EU and NATO, Ukraine can bolster its security architecture, thereby contributing to regional stability and collective defense initiatives. The recommendations presented aim to guide policymakers in implementing effective strategies for fostering greater alignment with international security frameworks, ensuring a robust response to evolving threats in the region. Through these measures, Ukraine can not only advance its national security objectives but also play a pivotal role in the broader European security landscape.

INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC INTERESTS AT THE BLACK SEA – ENERGY SECURITY ANALYSIS

The birth, development and propagation of regional and world conflict, as well as its escalation towards military war, global economic interests that converge towards the monopolization of strategic hydrocarbon energy resources, it transforms the Black Sea into a geostrategic space of geopolitical and geo-economic importance, but also with huge potential for confrontation and war. Positioning Romania in an inflection point of interests, in an area of strategic importance, being the buffer between NATO and the Russian Federation (the most important regional actor), it gives us the status of a state provider of regional security and welfare. The Black Sea region is important in that it is rich in hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas), it is an energy transit center and becomes a hot spot for the extended world security because it delimits the border between NATO and the Russian Federation, but also the influences from China.

Spatiotemporal Evolution, Driving Mechanisms, and Zoning Optimization Pathways of Ecosystem Health in China

The health status of ecosystems is an important prerequisite for ensuring regional ecological security. Exploring the spatiotemporal patterns, driving mechanisms, and zoning regulation pathways of ecosystem health is of great significance for achieving co-ordinated and sustainable regional ecosystems. This study uses China as a case area and applies the InVEST model to measure integrated ecosystem services and incorporates it into an evaluation framework for ecosystem health based on the “Vigor-Organization-Resilience-Ecosystem Services” (VORS) model. It reveals the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ecosystem health in China from 2000 to 2020 and employs the geodetector and spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model to analyze the main influencing factors and spatial differentiation characteristics, thereby exploring ecological management zoning and optimization pathways. The study results show that (1) during the study period, the overall ecosystem health level in China showed a declining trend, dropping from 0.397 in 2000 to 0.377 in 2020. (2) Overall, China’s ecosystem health exhibits strong spatial positive correlation and spatial clustering characteristics, with a basic pattern of lower values in the northwest and higher values in the southeast. (3) Vegetation coverage, population density, density of road network, and per capita GDP are the main influencing factors of ecosystem health in China. (4) China is divided into five types of Ecological Management Zones: Ecological Conservation Zone, Ecological Enhancement Zone, Ecological Buffer Zone, Ecological Remediation Zone, and Ecological Reshaping Zone, with differentiated strategies proposed for optimizing ecosystem health in each zone.

Navigating strategic waters: India-US foundational defence agreements and the quest for strategic autonomy

ABSTRACT This paper examines the evolving strategic partnership between India and the United States, particularly through the lens of foundational defence agreements. Focusing on key agreements such as the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), the study evaluates their implications for defence collaboration and India’s strategic autonomy. The analysis highlights how these agreements have strengthened both bilateral security cooperation and regional collaboration within the Indo-Pacific, while also opening avenues for new areas of defence cooperation and spurring new initiatives in India-US ties. The paper discusses how Modi's pragmatic reinterpretation of strategic autonomy aligns with India's national interests amidst escalating geopolitical challenges, particularly from China. By deepening the India-US strategic partnership and bolstering India's defence capabilities, these agreements are reshaping regional security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. Adopting a customised realist model tailored for this study, the paper highlights Prime Minister Narendra Modi's role in strengthening the bilateral relationship and expanding India's strategic options, alongside structural factors, such as the rise of an assertive China, which have shaped India-US security ties and led to the signing of foundational agreements.

Government Collaboration in Enhancing National Defense

Security dynamics in the Southeast Asian region have increased, influenced by many factors, ranging from internal member states, regional situations, to security dynamics in the Asia Pacific region and beyond. This article will review the security conditions of the ASEAN region through a government collaboration literature study approach. As a result, the implementation of joint military exercises of ASEAN countries plays an important role in creating regional security. There are at least several benefits obtained: First, joint military exercises can improve state defense capabilities and regional security. Second, through joint exercises, the forces of ASEAN countries will be better prepared and able to respond to any threats that disrupt regional security and sovereignty. Third, joint military exercises provide a space for productive discussions and consultations to discuss the security situation of member states and the Southeast Asian region, resulting in a common formula in maintaining regional security. Fourth, joint military exercises can serve as a mediation platform for ASEAN countries in conflict with other ASEAN countries to find a constructive middle ground for regional security stability

Risk assessment and sources associated with potentially toxic elements in suspended particulate matter: A karst river perspective in active mining area

Study regionDaiyang River Basin, a typical karst river basin impacted by mining activities in Guizhou, Southwest China. Study focusRivers are fundamental components of regional water security, but they are facing potentially toxic elements (PTEs) pollution caused by mining activities. This study investigated the concentration, behavior, risks and sources of nine PTEs in suspended particulate matter (SPM) from mining-impacted karst rivers, which are essential for the safety and management of karst water environments. New hydrological insights for the regionThe contents of Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb and Hg exceeded the corresponding local soil background values, with Zn and Cu being the most important pollutants. These elements caused a very high potential toxicity risk to the basin and unacceptable carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks to the local residents. Correlation analysis and the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model indicated that Ni, Cd, Zn and Cu were mainly derived from mixed sources of geological background and anthropogenic activities (30.95 %), Hg, Sb, and As were related to coal mining and combustion sources (28.91 %), while Pb, As, Cr and Sb were mainly contributed by natural sources (40.15 %). Furthermore, mixed sources, mining-related sources and As were identified as priority control factors in the study area. These insights can provide powerful support for decision-makers to develop control policies and reduce PTEs pollution in karst areas.

Small States as Norm Entrepreneurs: Unveiling Ghana's Agency in Atrocity Prevention

ABSTRACT This article explores the dynamic role of small states in shaping the global discourse on atrocity prevention, spotlighting Ghana as a compelling case. It delves into Ghana's historical commitment to and advocacy for atrocity prevention as a norm entrepreneur, and the country’s efforts to institutionalize atrocity prevention at the national level through its National Peace Council. I underscore the challenges and constraints confronting small states, including shifting priorities driven by global and regional security concerns and resource limitations, as well as the significance of localizing atrocity prevention efforts, exemplified by the NPC's grassroots approach to conflict resolution and violence prevention. A central argument made here is that paying closer attention to the domestic capabilities of small states better illuminates their international posture regarding atrocity prevention. I conclude that small states like Ghana play a vital role in advancing the atrocity prevention agenda, in turn promoting a more inclusive and comprehensive understanding of global efforts in the pursuit of peace and human rights.