Sector In Gross Domestic Product Research Articles

Fiscal Balance Factors of the Local Government: Panel Data Evidence from OECD Countries

Fiscal balance is perceived as a principal measure of fiscal sustainability in the local government. It also affects the budgetary response to a potential recession, determining a fiscal distress and a financial resilience. Thus, the economists conduct studies to identify factors influencing the fiscal balance at the local public level. Therefore, the aim of the paper is to examine fiscal, socio-economic, political, and institutional factors which affect the level of fiscal balance of the local government sector in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the basis of the OECD countries in the period 2007–2021. In the study both panel data models with fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE), dynamic panel data models (GMM), as well as panel quantile regressions with fixed effects were estimated. As a result, the paper confirms that fiscal balance of the local government in GDP is affected by fiscal decentralisation on the expenditure side, an investment activity, a change in the debt ratio, an inflation, a change in the unemployment rate, the Human Development Index, the trade openness, the GDP growth, and local elections. What was also found was a statistically significant influence of the corruption in the case of the panel quantile regression with fixed effects. In addition, the Mann-Whitney U test, the Kruskal-Wallis test, and the Dunn test were applied to identify whether the level of fiscal balance of the local government sector in GDP had the same distribution in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and other OECD countries.

Determinants of Agricultural Income to Promote Economic Sustainability in Indonesia

Indonesia is an agricultural country where most of the population works as farmers. The share of the agricultural sector in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ranks third, with an average informal sector employment of 88.34% in the last five years. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence the contribution of the agriculture sector to economic sustainability growth, proxied by national income, in the short and long run through the Error Correction Model (ECM) regression analysis tool with time series data of Indonesia for the 1991 – 2020 period through four independent variables; arable land, agricultural machinery, GDP growth per capita, and labor productivity of the agricultural sector. The results showed that Arable Land has a positive effect on Agricultural Income, significant in the long run but insignificant in the short run. Agricultural Machinery and Labor Productivity have a significant positive effect both in the short and long run. Then, the GDP per capita growth has a significant negative effect in the short and long run. From the results of the research, several policy recommendations have been compiled for the advancement of the agricultural sector in Indonesia, one of them is the intensification of machinery utilization.

Spillover effects of FDI inflows on output growth: An analysis of aggregate and disaggregated FDI inflows of 13 MENA economies

AbstractThis paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on overall growth, as well as its sector‐specific spillovers in the Middle Eastern and North African region during the period from 2000 to 2020. Our major innovation is our ability to disaggregate FDI into primary, secondary and tertiary and examine their individual impact on growth, as well as their sector‐specific spillovers by using dynamic panel GMM methodology. We find prima facie evidence that total FDI significantly stimulates growth. However, when we turn to the disaggregated FDI data, primary sector FDI adversely affects the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the service sector and overall GDP growth. On the other hand, secondary FDI has a ‘double‐edged’ effect, benefiting its own sector (the service sector's GDP growth), but not other sectors. In contrast, service sector FDI stimulates GDP growth in mining, manufacturing and service sectors, thereby enhancing overall economic growth. Our findings have important policy implications regarding the incentives provided by governments to encourage FDI, which need to be fine‐tuned to attract certain types of FDI (tertiary), with less focus on the primary sector

Implications of Transition towards Manufacturing on the Environment: Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 Context

This study is based on the idea that Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 considered the achievement of economic diversification is very crucial for the economy. In turn, this target requires a sustained increase in the contribution of the manufacturing sector in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). At the same time, the transition towards industrialization might trigger high rates of CO2 emissions, due to the escalated manufacturing demand for primary energy consumption (specifically fossil fuel). Ultimately, the high rates of CO2 emissions would have severe environmental consequences, such as environmental degradation. These environmental consequences might be more dangerous in a country extensively dependent on oil, such as Saudi Arabia. The study aims to investigate the manufacturing and environment nexus in an attempt to explore the validity of the inverted U-shaped curve, the so-called Kuznets hypothesis, during 1971–2021. Applying the econometric model autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), the findings of the study do not show evidence supporting the validity of an inverted U-shaped Kuznets function in Saudi Arabia during the period of the study. Furthermore, the short-term results do not confirm the impact of increasing manufacturing on CO2 emissions. However, there are indications of positive effects, although limited, in the long-term.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak on the sustainable development of the Turkish banking sector

This study tries to investigate the development in the banking sector by considering the correlation values before and after March 2020 including the COVID-19 pandemic period in the case of Turkey. However, the full influence of the pandemic will take place in the long term. The number of banks in Turkey, the number of domestic/foreign branches, the number of deposit/participation banks, the volume of the financial sector in gross domestic product (GDP), the number of personnel working in banks, the total number of savings deposits of banks, the total amount of savings deposits of banks, the total number of automatic teller machines (ATMs)/point of sale (POS) owned by the banks, and their relations with the data of the number of establishments are the members of the bank. In Spearman’s correlation, these will be reviewed in the course of correlations. As a result of the analysis, a high level of positive correlation was detected in most of the variables, while an admirable level of positive correlation was determined between the two variables.

Performance of IT Software and Service Sector in GDP Contribution of Developing Countries

According to the WESP (World Economic Situation and Prospects, 2019) the countries in the world are divided into; developed countries, transition countries and developing countries. The United Nations Economic and Social Council decided to choose some of the countries from developing countries as least developed countries as per three different indexes; Index of human assets, per capita GNI and economic vulnerability index. The paper aims to analyze the performance of the IT software and service sector in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) contribution of developing countries as well as least developed countries, least developed countries are chosen to have a comparison between the performances of those sectors in different economies. The data has been chosen from United Nation Conference on Trade and Development from 2000s to 2017, and for comparison 20 developing countries and 14 least developed countries from these regions; Latin America, Africa, Western Asia, and East Asia as well as South Asia, have been chosen too. We found; the average share of the service sector and IT software sector were 53 percent and 32.6 percent in GDP growth of all developing countries, and 47.02 percent and 22.57 percent in GDP growth of all least developed countries, respectively, that shows the share of these sectors in developing countries are higher than the least developed countries, and as per the data, the performance of these sectors are much higher in developing countries than the least developed countries

A Proposed Comparative Algorithm for Regional Crop Yield Assessment: An Application of Characteristic Objects Method

The agriculture sector plays a vibrant role in the economic prosperity of advanced and developing countries. It is a crucial source of revenue for the majority of the population. Nevertheless, unfortunately, in Pakistan, the share of the agricultural sector in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is gradually declining. Therefore, comprehensive strategies and actions need to be developed and implement to enhance the agricultural productivity of Pakistan. In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the crop yield revenue of Punjab, Pakistan, by ranking the districts according to their contribution to the agricultural GDP of Pakistan's economy. A Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique, namely, characteristic objects method (COMET), which is entirely free of the rank reversal paradox, is used for this purpose. However, to make a fair comparison, in this research, a comprehensive framework is proposed to normalize the crop yield revenue of Punjab under probabilistic nature. The proposed framework is applied to various districts of Punjab, Pakistan, from 1992 to 2019. It is concluded that Jhang, Faisalabad, and Rahim Yar Khan (RYK) are the highest-ranked districts, while Nankana Sahib, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad are the lowest-ranked districts of Punjab, Pakistan, according to their contribution to the agricultural GDP of Pakistan's economy. Outcomes associated with this research would be helpful to build precise and accurate budget allocation policies.

Retrospecting on resource abundance in leading oil-producing African countries: how valid is the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in a sectoral composition framework?

Policymakers and authorities in Africa are often concerned about economic growth and stability owing to the long history of socioeconomic problems that have bedeviled the continent for years. However, increasing environmental degradation challenges in recent times beckons for adequate attention considering Africa's vulnerability to climate change and environmental disasters. Thus, the current study examines the illustrious environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in a sectoral composition framework of fossil resources abundance among leading oil-producing African economies, including Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, and Egypt, using a combination of quantile regression (QR) approach and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) for data between 1995 and 2016. Based on the empirical results from the study, three main factors significantly increase environmental pollution through CO2 emissions among the countries, namely: fossil energy consumption, income levels, and the shares of the manufacturing sector in the total gross domestic product (GDP). While income growth exacerbates pollution, the negative impacts of the income square were only significant at the lower and mid quantiles of the understudied periods in the QR estimates. Thus, the EKC hypothesis was not convincingly upheld for the countries as its validity demonstrates significant quantile effects. Furthermore, the tripartite causality nexus among real income, resource rent, and share of the service sector in GDP, which is unobserved in the share of the manufacturing sector, reflect the infamous Dutch disease argument among the resource-dependent countries. Hence, to promote environmental sustainability and address resource dependency toward the actualization of SDGs (1, 8, 12, and 13), the study recommends energy portfolios diversification alongside economic diversification.

Modeling Trade–Employment Elasticity Nexus: Evidence from India

The effect of trade on employment growth in India is a less-discussed issue in the international economics literature. Trade has increased the employment growth in India or not is still a debatable issue for many researchers. This study explores the impact of trade on India’s employment elasticity of growth using World development Indicator data of the World Bank and KLEMS database of India from 1982 to 2016. For this purpose, it has used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model of cointegration. The result indicates that although the share of trade in the national gross domestic product (GDP) has grown, it has failed to increase employment elasticity in the country. It may occur primarily because of the high volume of Indian imports. The share of the service sector in GDP, inflation, and foreign direct investment (FDI) are other vital factors influencing the employment intensity. Therefore, based on the empirical findings, it is suggested that policymakers should focus more on export, specifically on labor-intensive export. It will undoubtedly help to improve the employment level in the country.

Road traffic mortality in North Chennai – An autopsy based study

An accident is an unplanned event that results in injury, deaths, damage to property or some other losses. For statistical purpose, Accidental Deaths have been classified as deaths that could be due to forces/factors of the nature which have been termed as ‘Natural Accidental Deaths’ or could be due to deliberate or negligent conduct of human beings, which is termed as ‘Un-natural Accidental Deaths’ or due to causes not covered in the above two categories and with no initial apparent cause of deaths which have been categorised as ‘Other Causes of Deaths’ like poisoning, sudden death etc. (1) India has a well-knit and coordinated system of transport which plays an important role in development of economic activities by promoting fair distribution of produced goods and services. The share of transport sector in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of India is steadily growing. It is one of the key indicators in assessment of socio-economic development of the country. Tamil Nadu has reported for 9.8% of total deaths in traffic accidents reported at all India level in the year 2015. (1) The present study was conducted to analyze the socio-demographic and clinical profile of deaths due to road accidents which were brought to the Department of Forensic Medicine for autopsy during the year 2019. Road traffic accidents is a well-known causative and contributer to a high number of mortality and morbidity. Urbanisation leading to widening of roads, increase in motor vehicles are among the few contributing factors to the increase in number of road accidents. Males in the productive age group being the most common victims is also a well documented fact. In this study, we observed a high number of fatalities in the National highways and the service roads connecting the nearby villages. Also we observed maximum fatalities in accidents that occurred in the mid – day and evening when they are mostly on their way back home from work. Apart from strict regulations, it is the in

Feasibility of peaking carbon emissions of the power sector in China's eight regions: decomposition, decoupling, and prediction analysis.

Carbon emissions in the power sector are an important part of China's total carbon emissions and have a significant impact on whether China can achieve the 2030 carbon peak target. Based on the three perspectives of decomposition, decoupling, and prediction, this paper studies the feasibility of carbon emission peaks in eight major regional power sectors in China. First, the generalized Divisia index model (GDIM) is used to decompose the carbon emissions of the eight regional power sectors, and the driving factors and their effects on carbon emissions in the power sector of each region are compared. Then, the decoupling index based on the generalized Divisia index model (GDIM-D) is used to study the decoupling relationship between the carbon emissions of the eight regional power sectors and economic growth. Finally, the carbon emissions and decoupling indices of the power sector from 2017 to 2030 are predicted. The results show the following. First, the gross domestic product (GDP) and output scale are the main factors contributing to the carbon emissions of the eight regional power sectors. The carbon intensity of the power sector in GDP (C/G) and output carbon intensity(C/E) are the main factors that contribute to the reduction. Second, the carbon emissions of the southern coast, the middle Yellow River, and the Southwest peaked in 2013 and have been decoupled from economic growth, while those in the other regions have not peaked or decoupled. Third, if the carbon emissions of the power sector in the Northeast, northern coast, eastern coast, middle Yangtze River, and Northwest reach a peak in 2030, they will face many emission reduction pressures. This paper provides a reference for studying the carbon emissions of China's regional power sectors and their relationship with economic growth and has important implications for peak carbon emissions at the national level.

Dampak output GDP sektor pertanian terhadap masalah pembangunan ekonomi di Indonesia (kemiskinan dan pengangguran)

This study aims to analyze the development of agricultural GDP output and poverty and unemployment during the period 1993 – 2014 and analyze the effect of the GDP Output of the agricultural sector on the level of poverty and unemployment in Indonesia in that period. The results showed that during the period of 1993-2014 the data on gross domestic product (GDP) originating from the agricultural sector continued to fluctuate in the increase and decrease, the average GDP value of the agricultural sector is 496.9 trillion with an average value of 17%. The regression results in the first model show that agricultural sector GDP does not have a significant effect on poverty and the regression results in the second model show that agricultural GDP does not have a significant effect on the number of unemployed people in Indonesia

Deindustrialization and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

For the last four decades, ratio of services sector to economic growth has been increased among several developing countries. Like other developing economies Pakistan also experienced similar trends i.e. the share of services sector in Gross Domestic Product has expanded as compared to agriculture sector whereas manufacturing sector share remained stagnant. This situation is basically named as deindustrialization by some economists. In this context, present research tries to find out empirically the effects of deindustrialization on economic growth of Pakistan using time series data set ranging from 1972 to 2017. Auto Regressive Distributed Lag modelling technique has been used for estimation of the model. Empirical findings verified the fact that manufacturing value added has positive and significant impact on economic growth. The key finding suggested that Pakistan became a service economy without having proper experience of industrialization hence indicating deindustrialization in Pakistan. It is also concluded that Pakistan requires introducing such policies that encourage manufacturing sector growth as well as agriculture sector by curbing services sector. The study suggests that services sector should be prompted but not at the cost of manufacturing sector. This will render the growth journey of the country smoother and sustainable.

Development of financial sector and implications on monetary transmission mechanism: evidences from Indian economy

Monetary policy is often viewed as the tool for stabilising the economy (in particular ensuring price stability). It is generally held that the stimuli of monetary policy are transmitted to the rest of the economy through the development of financial sector. The study attempts to provide empirical evidences on the implications of financial development on the effectiveness of monetary policy in the context of Indian economy over the period 1970-2016. Empirical evidences suggest that Indian economy experiences a significant expansion in the size of financial markets and institutions and it is reflected in the increasing contribution of the financial sector in gross domestic product (GDP) (i.e., depth of the financial development). A disaggregated analysis suggests that development of financial sector impedes in the process of monetary transmission mechanism in the pre-liberalisation period. However, interest rate transmission mechanism remains relatively weak in post-liberalisation period. Thus, development of financial sector does not facilitate the effectiveness of monetary policy in the context of Indian Economy.

Inter-sector GDP Substitutability in Macro-Money Demand: Novel Evidence for India

The gross domestic product (GDP) as a scale variable in the macro-money demand function is justified only on the simplifying but verifiable assumption that the individual-sector GDPs have the same marginal money demand propensities. This assumption is easily verifiable by replacing the aggregate GDP with the services sector and commodity sector GDPs as two scale variables. The money demand propensities differ between these two sectors. To empirically verify this, a variable elasticity of substitution model is posited with these two sector GDPs as scale variables. This novel model permits us to estimate the parameter of elasticity of substitution between the two-sector GDPs .We expect the elasticity estimate to be greater than unity first and decrease towards unity later in the post-liberalization period 1992-2012 and this ensures a unitary income elasticity of demand for money for the aggregate GDP. For the pre-liberalization period (1971 to 1991) we expect the substitutability between the two sectors to be either less than unity or even negative. The policy implication of disparate sector-GDP growth rates for money demand should not be ignored in an emerging economy of India, where the GDP structure evolves towards invariance as in a developing economy.

Impact of non-performing loans on US product and labor markets

PurposeUsing time-series data on the US banking industry for the period 1984Q1-2016Q2, the present study aims to examine the impact of both aggregate and sector-specific non-performing loans (NPLs) on aggregate and sectoral product and labor markets.Design/methodology/approachUsing both single equation ordinary least squares and instrumental variables regressions, the study compares the sensitivity of sector-specific gross domestic product (GDP) and employment growth to changes in both aggregate and sectoral NPLs. Moreover, the paper uses vector autoregressions (VARs) to dynamically trace the impact and duration of NPLs on different types of real economic activity..FindingsRise in total NPLs reduces US real GDP growth that is most accentuated for construction sector GDP. Likewise, total NPLs significantly lowers both total and non-farm employment growth, financial activities and construction sector employment growth, with the latter showing most sensitivity. Moreover, NPLs in commercial and industrial sector, consumer lending, non-farm non-residential, construction and land development, single- and multi-family residential sectors reduce corresponding sectoral employment growth. The VARs largely confirm these findings with shocks to total NPLs having the most immediate and persistent inimical impact on construction-sector GDP growth.Practical implicationsThe deleterious impact of different categories of NPLs on both aggregate as well as sector-specific product and labor markets illustrate that a distressed banking sector is a serious obstacle to the real sector. The findings underscore the need not only to clean up NPLs for the sake of banks financial soundness but also to reduce their pernicious effects on the health of the US economy. For bank regulatory authorities in the USA, it indicates constant monitoring of banks in their jurisdiction and identifying early warning signals to mitigate the potential real sector losses due to rising NPLs.Originality valueThe extant literature on NPLs has mainly focused on explaining its underlying determinants but not on its real sector consequences. The present paper examines the impact of NPLs on different facets of real economic activity, an issue that has been rarely studied and especially not on the US economy. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of existing literature focuses on aggregate NPLs. The relationships derived in such studies, while useful, can mask important differences between different types of NPLs and real economic activity. The present paper explores the impact of disaggregated NPLs in the US banking industry on corresponding sector-specific product and labor markets, again an issue that has not been studied previously.

A Sectoral Analysis of the Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Indian Economy

The present study examines the relationship between Indian stock market and economic growth from a sectoral perspective using quarterly time-series data from 2003:Q4 to 2014:Q4. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach bounds test confirm the existence of a cointegrating relationship between sector-specific gross domestic product (GDP) and sector-specific stock indices. The empirical results reveal that sector-specific economic growth are significantly influenced by changes in the respective sector-specific stock price indices in the long run as well as in the short run. Apart from that, the control variables, such as trade openness and inflation, act as the instrument variables in explaining the variations in the sector-specific GDP of the economy. The results of Granger causality test demonstrate unidirectional long-run as well as short-run causality running from sector specific stock prices to respective sector GDP. The findings suggest that economic growth of the country is sensitive to respective sub-sector stock market investments. The findings highlight the reasons for cyclical and counter-cyclical business phase for the overall economy.

Studying ‘Make in India’ from the Lens of Labour Reforms

The contribution of the manufacturing sector in gross domestic product (GDP) has been a cause of concern, as India contributes only 16 per cent to the GDP in comparison to other rapidly developing economies, for example, the manufacturing sector of Thailand contributes 34 per cent to the GDP, China 32 per cent and South Korea 31 per cent. Currently, India stands at 134th position out of 189 economies under Doing Business Index. Its rank has also declined in the Global Manufacturing Index in comparison to the previous year. The Government of India in the year 2014 initiated a campaign titled Make in India to foster the growth of the manufacturing sector. In the initial phase of the campaign, the primary focus was on three key tactics namely reviving domestic investment, ensuring the ease of doing business and attracting foreign investors to invest in the manufacturing sector. The government later on realized that first there is a need to bring reforms in the decades old labour laws. This has urged the government to consider reforms in labour laws which will make Indian labour market more competitive in international market. The government has initiated these reforms by proposing certain amendments in the Factories Act 1948 and by including few provisions in the Labour Laws Amendment Act, 2011, and the Apprenticeship (Amendment) Act, 2014. The article attempts to analyze the impact of these reforms on success of Make in India campaign by studying the overall impact of these labour law reforms from employees and employers’ perspective and contribution of labour reforms in Make in India campaign by using the theory of structural change, fundamentals and growth given by Rodrik (2013b, Harvard Business Review). It also analyzes the impact of these reforms on two key aspects of the campaign, that is, focusing on job creation and skill enhancement.

Socio-Economic Importance of Indigenous Poultry in Nepal

In Nepal, more than 65% of people depend upon agriculture. Contribution of agricultural sector in Gross Domestic product (GDP) of Nepal is 33%. Among them contribution of livestock sector in total GDP is 26.8% and poultry sub sector within livestock contributes 8% of Agriculture Gross Domestic product (AGDP) and Indigenous poultry is widely prevalent which contributes 55% of total poultry population. Poultry can convert feed efficiently in short period of time and give income in short time of period. But Nepal, Village farmers lack knowledge about poultry health and Poor husbandry practices limit production as well as income generation. Indigenous breeds of Nepal are Shakini, Ghanti khuile and Pwankh Ulte. If we are able to do Genetic improvement through selection as well as improve health husbandry, we can significantly increase the production. So for the improvement of the indigenous breed of poultry, we need to identify some economically important traits of indigenous breed which can be improved. Some important traits of indigenous breeds of poultry are Total eggs per clutch and good mothering ability. This paper is the literature review related to the Socio-economic importance of Indigenous Poultry in Nepal.

Services sector in India: trends, issues, and the way forward

This paper provides an overview of the Indian services sector. It shows that services is the fastest growing sector in India, contributing significantly to gross domestic product (GDP), GDP growth, employment, trade, and investment. India is a major proponent of liberalizing services both in the World Trade Organization and in its bilateral trade agreements. However, there are some concerns. In the recent past, economic growth and growth of the services sector has slowed down. Growth in employment in services has not been commensurate with the share of the sector in GDP. Although India is a major exporter of services, its export competitiveness concentrates in few sectors and a few markets. The paper identifies a number of barriers faced by the services sectors and suggests policy measures which, if implemented, will lead to inclusive growth, increased productivity, generate quality employment, increase trade and investment, and enhance India’s global competitiveness in services.