Secessionist Conflicts Research Articles

Conceptualising patron-client relations in secessionist conflict. A research agenda

ABSTRACT This article breaks new ground in the study of secessionist conflict. It conceptualises the relationships between host states and secessionist groups and their patrons, and outlines directions for future research on the topic. Based on a review of patron-client research across multiple disciplines I derive four constitutive features of patron-client relationships: cooperative resource exchange, asymmetric power dependence, diffuse obligation and durability. Secessionist patron-client relationships, however, are a distinct sub-type: patrons are external to an intra-state conflict, support either the host state or the secessionist group and include both states and non-state actors, in particular international organisations and diasporas. Future research on secessionist patron-client relationships can go in many directions. This article focuses on two: the motives for forming, maintaining and terminating patron-client relationships, and the impact of such relationships on secessionist conflict. For each dimension, I identify gaps, puzzles and controversies in the literature, offer theoretical building-blocks and identify options for in-depth study.

Long-distance nationalism, diaspora mobilisation, and the struggle for Biafran self-determination in Nigeria

Existing works on the sources of secessionist agitations in postcolonial Africa tend to be methodologically nationalist but also circumvent the diasporic dimension. Particularly, the resurgent ethnic separatism amongst Igbos in southeastern Nigeria has been predominantly analysed from the theoretical standpoints of relative marginalisation and material deprivation that focus on domestic politics in post-war Nigeria. We broaden this literature by underscoring the diasporic dimension of this secessionist conflict. Drawing on the literature on diaspora nationalism with a focus on the case of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB)—a transnational separatist movement—we reveal evidence showing how the Igbo diaspora instigate and exacerbate separatist tensions in the homeland by reviving collective memories of the macabre Nigeria-Biafra war (1967–1970) and reimagining alternative political futures for ethnic Igbos devoid of the state’s grand narratives of nationhood. We contend that the diasporic dimension is profoundly critical to comprehending separatist agitations in southeastern Nigeria with implications for wider postcolonial African contexts.

Bosna a Hercegovina - neracionálne ambície v spore o secesiu

Bosnia and Herzegovina is a state composed of different ethnic, religious and cultural identities, with a complicated political and administrative system in which it is difficult to achieve political and economic progress. Bosnia and Herzegovina is a state in which the symptoms of conflict and fragmentation are present, particularly in the context of secessionist efforts by representatives of the Republika Srpska. Although the conflict or the dispute over the secession of the Republika Srpska could be considered rational, we considered the ambitions of the representatives of the Republika Srpska to be irrational, also in view of the predicted development of this dispute and the impact of the efforts of the international community. Therefore, the study was focused on the threat of secession efforts from the Republika Srpska and analysed and assessed the actual situation in the years 2020-2023. The aim of the study was to predict the development of the situation in relation to the secessionist efforts of the representatives of the Republika Srpska. The study used the model of unrecognised statehood to make a forecast. It took into account not only the ambitions of the secessionist entity and the threatened state, but also the influence of external actors pursuing their ambitions. By applying a comprehensive approach to assessing the secessionist conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the study predicted the outcome in terms of “status quo equilibria”.

Journalism and secessionism: A contextual analysis of reporting in the Cameroon Anglophone crisis

This article examines journalism in Cameroon’s Anglophone crisis as a reflection of the broader dynamics of ongoing secessionist conflicts in Africa. Using the evolving rhetorical approach to media framing, the study analyses articles from one state-owned and one privately-owned newspaper in Cameroon to determine the thematic framing of the crisis with respect to the national media divide. The study also examines the level of importance given to the subject of the crisis and ascertains the degree of independence or journalistic objectivity in the reporting of the crisis. The article reveals that the crisis was mainly reported through themes relating to solutions and violence, indicating that focus was placed on finding solutions to the crisis while also highlighting the crisis’ violent nature. This differs from conventional approaches to crisis reporting, which typically emphasize problem definition and causal interpretation over solution-based reporting. According to the results, the theme of crisis was highly emphasized in news coverage as it appeared in the first three paragraphs of the majority of articles evaluated. It was also found that, despite the repressive controls over the media system, journalists were largely independent and official sources were not heavily relied on.

The risk of domino secessions: interdependent secessions and lessons from the Western Balkans

ABSTRACT The resurgence of nationalist tendencies around the world has brought new attention to the problem of smaller regions seceding from larger states. While research exists regarding the contagious nature of self-determination, ethnic conflict and civil wars, the interrelationships among various secessionist conflicts have not been systematically studied. We show that the circumstances of secession conflicts in different countries are interconnected by the perceptions of elites and that outcomes in one case may, therefore, influence expectations, motivations, strategies and outcomes in others. We also identified several indicators of interconnectivity among secessionist conflicts in the Western Balkans and visualised the strength of the links among them using social network analysis tools (Pajek – Spider). After the outbreak of a secession conflict, several inter-secession effects will be directly transferred to the most interconnected cases, and the greatest domino risk results from the combined impacts of direct and indirect nth-order effects.

One hundred years of cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Cobalt is an indispensable element for the manufacture of strategic technologies including advanced batteries, jet engines, rare-earth permanent magnets, petroleum catalysts, and tool parts that enable construction, manufacturing, and mining. Cobalt routinely scores high in mineral supply risk assessments due to the concentration of cobalt mine production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). This stands in contrast to the fact that DRC cobalt mine production had a 20% compound annual growth rate from 1995 through 2020—in large part due to investments by Chinese firms beginning in the mid-2000s. Given this continuous growth, one may ask why this supply is perceived to be so risky. This analysis illuminates the causes of historic disruptions to DRC cobalt mine and refinery production by analyzing country-level production, historical reports, and cobalt prices back to 1924. The results indicate that the main causes of supply disruptions were damage to transportation routes, underinvestment in maintaining nationalized mining assets, and the disintegration of the DRC economy during the early 1990s. On the other hand, cobalt mine production increased 50% from 1977 to 1979 despite two secessionist conflicts in DRC's cobalt producing region and increased seven-fold from 1996 to 2003 despite two African wars over the DRC and its resources. These results indicate that—barring another economic disintegration or mining industry nationalization—DRC mine production will likely continue to be the dominant supplier of the world's growing demand for cobalt in lithium-ion batteries. These results also indicate that sustained development of transportation (and other) infrastructure in Africa, as well as support for good governance in the DRC may prove key to the continued stability of DRC cobalt mine supplies.

Secessionist conflict and affective polarization: Evidence from Catalonia

Can secessionism be a basis for affective or social polarization? Despite much research on independence movements, their relationship to polarization, a key mechanism theorized as increasing the risk of violent conflict, remains less understood. We argue that the issue of secession can affectively polarize along both policy and ethnic group lines even in the case of nonviolent disputes, and posit a number of expectations regarding such secessionist-based polarization. We test our argument with the case of Catalonia, a substate territory that has experienced a deep secessionist crisis since 2017, using new data from a panel survey and embedded experiments fielded across two key time periods. We find that individuals’ secessionist preferences condition high levels of affective polarization, in that pro- and anti-independence advocates have strong negative views of one another. In addition, there is spillover in terms of stereotypes of associated language groups (i.e. Catalan, Spanish). Importantly, we find a group of moderates in between the two policy poles that exhibit far less polarization. Finally, we document the persistence of these overall patterns. Our results contribute to understanding the underexplored polarization dynamics of secessionist movements, particularly in contexts where high intensity violence (e.g. terrorism, civil war) has not occurred.

Change or Continuity in Russia’s Strategy towards Secessionist Regions in the ‘Near Abroad’?

ABSTRACT The 2008 invasion of Georgia, followed by the recognition of the independence of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the annexation of Crimea and the involvement in the war in Donbas, and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine have all marked the return to active Russian participation in separatist regions in the ‘near abroad’. They took the international community by surprise. To be sure, the Russian Federation had played a role in all previous secessionist conflicts in the former Soviet space. Nonetheless, Moscow’s post-2008 bold actions – open invasion, recognition of separatist regions and annexation of a neighbour’s territory – have marked an innovation in Russia’s foreign policy. This points to questions about how Moscow is legitimising these actions and whether the official narrative suggests a change in Russia’s strategy towards secessionist conflicts in the ‘near abroad’.

The Perils of Biased Power Mediation: Insights from the Secessionist Conflicts in Moldova and Ukraine

The Perils of Biased Power Mediation: Insights from the Secessionist Conflicts in Moldova and Ukraine

Irredentist Secessions as a form of Territorial Conflicts in the Post-Socialist Space: eruption, intercourse, outcomes

The dissolution of Yugoslavia and the USSR did not lead to the emergence of large-scale territorial conflicts between the newly independent states, but provoked the unfolding of a number of secessionist conflicts, nominally domestic for these states. At the same time, for many "rebellious regions", the real goal of the conflict was not so much obtaining broader rights of self-government as such, but reunification with another state, closer to them in socio-cultural characteristics; therefore, such secessions should be considered as irredentist. In fact, irredentist secessions have become the main form of political conflict in the post-socialist space, replacing the classic interstate territorial conflicts. This article analyzes the phenomenon of irredentist secession, identifies the reasons for the special significance of this form of conflict in the space of the former Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union, and identifies the factors that determine the successes and defeats of the irredentist secessions under consideration. Qualifying post-Yugoslav and post-Soviet conflicts as irredentist secessions is an innovative approach for Russian science. Analyzing the normative parameters of the regional political context in the conditions of the dismantement of the socialist federations, the author identifies the reasons why territorial contradictions between the newly independent states took the form of irredentist secessions. Based on the synthesis of data on current and resoved irredentist secessions, the author formulates a general scenario of irredentist secession, identifies the factors causing such an outcome, and analyzes the possibilities for overcomimg this scenario. The main conclusion of the article is that over the past thirty years, the irredentist secession format has proved its inefficiency and inability to prevent the emergence of large-scale interstate conflicts: at one stage or another of its development, the irredentist secession underwent direct military attack from the mother state, which forced its patronage state to make a choice between abandoning the secession 'under custody' to be suppressed and open military intervention on its side.

Preferences in Between: Moderates in the Catalan Secessionist Conflict

Recent research on territorial preferences focuses on explaining who supports or opposes independence. However, this research overlooks the relevance of an “intermediate” category of citizens who may oppose the territorial status quo of a sub-state territory but not support independence. We use evidence from the critical case of Catalonia to illustrate the relevance of individuals with such preferences for policies and outcomes highly relevant to secessionist conflicts. We present four sets of findings using two-wave panel data from December 2017 (just prior to the December regional elections when Catalan independence was the most salient and contentious issue) and September 2018. First, we find that a sizable plurality within Catalonia supports greater autonomy short of independence; conventional sociodemographic variables explaining support for independence do not strongly account for this preference. Second, such pro-autonomy individuals have considerably more intermediate attitudes regarding the key “on the ground” actions that the Spanish and Catalan governments pursued during the crucial independence drive in 2017. They were more opposed than pro-independence individuals to the unilateral independence efforts, and more opposed than pro-status quo individuals to the Spanish government’s actions to counter these efforts. Third, they expressed emotions around the secessionist conflict similar to pro-status quo individuals. Finally, using an embedded survey experiment, we find that pro-autonomy individuals are more trusting of both the central and regional governments regarding their abiding by an agreement to resolve the conflict, and are less easily “polarized” through priming. Overall, these findings indicate the importance of further analyzing individuals with intermediate territorial views in secessionist conflicts.

The Internationalization of the Secessionist Crisis in Cameroon

"The article aims to illustrate the evolution and international reactions to the current secessionist crisis in Cameroon. Firstly, the anglophone crisis is presented as the result of a minority’s identification with a colonially inherited identity, as well as the consequence of the regime’s authoritarian style and constant exclusion of the anglophone elites from the structure of power. Secondly, the article concentrates on analyzing the reactions of various organizations, institutions and states regarding the Cameroonian secessionist conflict. However, although there are certain minor measures which have been taken against Cameroon, the actions of the international community are still below the expectations of the anglophones, who are the ones directly affected by both the government’s and separatists’ use of extreme violence. In addition, the international support for the fight against terrorism in the region is perceived with suspicion due to the double security crisis the country is facing. Keywords: secessionist crisis, authoritarianism, BIR, internationalization, terrorism "

Secessionist conflict as diversion from inequality: The missing link between grievance and repression

Why do some secessionist claims turn violent and others stay peaceful? This study elucidates the role of inequality and diversionary tactics of states in secessionist violence. Horizontal inequality increases the grievances of minorities and fuels rebellion. States with high vertical inequality prefer to suppress peripheries instead of increasing redistribution and alleviating their material grievances. States shun redistributing toward peripheral regions because sharing with one group prompts demands for redistribution among other groups, including the dominant group. Fearing resource reallocation at the national scale and potential loss of their elevated social status, the elites opt for violent solutions for secessionist crises. Using a new dataset on self-determination movements I test these conjectures and find strong support for them.

Aceh tsunami: Long-term economic recovery after the disaster

This study looks at the dynamics of the Aceh economy before and after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that devastated Aceh, resulting in over 150,000 people killed and causing major disruption to the infrastructure, community and economy. On the other hand, the disaster served as a stepping stone to ending three decades of secessionist conflict in the province. The study analyses at the district level how different sectors of the economy have grown after the disaster in regions that were significantly affected, partly affected or not affected by the tsunami. It also looks at other macroeconomic measures such as inflation and unemployment. Analysis of time series data indicates that Aceh has managed to return to its pre-tsunami growth path, albeit at a rate slower than its closest neighbour. The poverty rate has declined and is now closer to the rest of Indonesia. The formal sector has developed and the economy has industrialised, especially in the districts worst hit by the tsunami. One concern revealed by the data, however, is that unemployment rates remain high in the worst hit districts. The study looks at the cause of this phenomenon, and what this means for Aceh's long-term recovery.

Turning the lights on to keep them in the fold: How governments preempt secession attempts

There are many regions that meet the necessary conditions for sovereign governance in the world, but few secessionist conflicts. I argue that this relative paucity of secessionist violence is the result of government preemption of potential secessionist movements. Using cross-national geospatial data from 1992 to 2013, I find that governments invest more, measured via nighttime light emissions, in more secession-prone regions. The same factors that make territory attractive for secession, such as large populations and international borders, also make governments willing to work to retain control of that territory, contributing to the scarcity of separatist civil conflicts.

How to design decentralisation to curb secessionist pressures? Top-down vs. bottom-up reforms

This paper looks at decentralisation as an institutional solution for curbing secessionist pressures by making potentially seceding regions strictly better off by staying in the union. We show that a bottom-up decentralisation reform, where single regions that can opt to assume or not stronger fiscal responsibilities on the basis of bilateral negotiations with the central government, may be more successful in avoiding instability and a secessionist conflict than more standard top-down decentralisation, where the central government assigns identical fiscal powers to all regions. The example of the decentralisation process in Spain over the last 40 years illustrates the relevance of the institutional pattern we analyse in the paper.

Secessionist Conflicts: Unresolved Legacies of United Nations Trusteeship

ABSTRACT We argue that the United Nations Trusteeship System after World War II, in its attempts to release states into independence, was simultaneously complicit in perpetuating secessionist conflicts, with which former trust territories continue to struggle until today. Secessionism was framed as a threat to state-building and not as an expression of self-determination. We use a Critical Security Studies framework and compare the conflict on Ewe/Togoland unification in bordering regions of the British Gold Cost and the Trusteeship Territories of Togoland (1950s), with the conflict on secessionism of Bougainville from the Territory of Papua and New Guinea (1970s).

OSCE mediation strategies in Eastern Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh: a comparative analysis

ABSTRACT Even though the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has performed mediation efforts in Eurasian secessionist conflicts, its role has been neglected by mainstream international relations (IR) and conflict mediation literature. To fill in this gap, this article examines OSCE mediation strategies in two major secessionist conflicts: the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Drawing on Zartman’s conceptual framework, this study posits that OSCE mediation strategies were constrained given its weak organisational capacity, lack of legal empowerment and adverse geopolitical environment. Due to these structural limitations, the OSCE can be said to have been more effective in containing conflict than contributing to conflict resolution. This article aims to contribute to conflict mediation research by highlighting the importance of context for understanding the role of international organisations (IOs) as mediators.

The Economic Costs of a Secessionist Conflict: The Case of Catalonia

ABSTRACT Due to the pro-independence demands of part of its electorate, the political fit of Catalonia within Spain has given rise to notable political tensions over the last few years. This conflict has progressively affected several dimensions of Catalan society, including, potentially, the economy. The illegal referendum on independence, held in October 2017, marked the climax of political and social tensions, leading to a Constitutional crisis and further stoking the conflict as opposed to offering any hope of an early resolution. We analyze a complete set of margins potentially affected by the referendum, including real (aggregate demand and supply) and financial responses. Using a synthetic control method, we find strong evidence of the outflow of short-term bank deposits after the referendum; while, on the real side, we find evidence of responses in aggregate supply (number of capital increases and number of new firms registered).

The politics of unilateral secession in the European Union: the case of Catalonia

ABSTRACT We analyse the politics of unilateral secession in the European Union (EU), focusing on the Catalan secessionist conflict. Building on a triangulation strategy, within which primary data are cross-checked through semi-structured expert interviews, we examine how the involved central state and secessionist sub-state actor fought for the support of the supranational party within the EU’s multilevel framework. We make two entrenched contributions. We find that the Spanish government succeeded in securing the status quo, not only because of its relations within the bigger European party groups and the benevolent support of EU member states, but also because of the secessionist-restraining nature of the EU. The EU switched from the position of non-intervention towards one of open support for the central state government, and as a result it has developed an informal framework which could deter future unilateral secession intentions.