Secession Referendum Research Articles

Self-determination vs. state sovereignty. What are the determinants of agreed-upon independence referendums in liberal democracies?

ABSTRACT Secession referendums can help to resolve the tension between self-determination and state sovereignty. Nevertheless, not all state governments accept holding such consultations in collaboration with secessionist movements. This article tackles this issue by focusing on the determinants of agreed and non-agreed upon independence referendums. Through a statistical analysis based on a dataset of independence referendums held in liberal democracies from 1945 to 2022 (N = 70), we demonstrate that the decision of the parent state’s government to agree to an independence referendum depends on two factors. The first is the perception of competition and/or electoral proximity to the referendum demand. The second depends on the expectation of the low cost of an eventual secession – at least in terms of population, area and natural resources. Accordingly, we propose a general model designed to predict the disposition of a liberal democracy to agree to an independence referendum.

The impact of federalism on secession referendums: comparing Scotland and Québec

The impact of federalism on secession referendums: comparing Scotland and Québec

The Inadequacy of Unilateral Secession Referendums in Modern Democracies

The Inadequacy of Unilateral Secession Referendums in Modern Democracies

The Impact of Federalism on Secession Referendums: Comparing Scotland and Québec

The Impact of Federalism on Secession Referendums: Comparing Scotland and Québec

Where you stand depends on where you live: county voting on the Texas secession referendum

Where you stand depends on where you live: county voting on the Texas secession referendum

The “Europeanization” of Secessionist Programs: A Study of Montenegro and Catalonia

In 2006, the EU encouraged, facilitated and supervised the secession referendum of Montenegro. In 2014, the EU officials refused to facilitate a similar referendum in its member state Spain, and have so far denied any claims that Catalonia, when independent, would retain its membership of the EU. The paper argues that the EU policy towards secession referenda significantly affected the outcome of secessionist mobilization in these two cases.In spite of these sharp differences in the EU response, secessionist programs in both countries were ‘Europeanised’ in a similar way: in Montenegro, secession was aiming to facilitate the EU accession, and in Catalonia, to increase the benefits of retained EU membership. This paper explores the political and demographic context of the Europeanisation of secessionist programs.The majority of citizens in Catalonia and Montenegro do not identify as Catalan or Montenegrin only. The paper argues that the Europeanization of secessionist programs was, in part, an attempt to widen the appeal of secession to those who are not only Catalan or only Montenegrin.

Nigerian Separatist Movements, Growing Secession Agitations and the Stand of International Human Rights Law

[enter This paper firstly examines the unabated ongoing agitations for secession from the Federal Republic of Nigeria by the Yoruba and Igbo ethnic majorities who are indigenous to Southern Nigeria but also to some areas of Northern Nigeria. After years of unheeded calls for constitution amendment and restructuring that could heal the maladies of marginalisation, ethnic cleansing, and insecurity masterminded by religious terrorists and jihadists masquerading as herdsmen, the Yoruba and Igbo agitators have now insisted that they are no longer interested in either constitution amendment or restructuring but in having an Oduduwa Republic and a Republic of Biafra respectively. Even the predominantly Christian indigenous peoples of the southern parts of Northern Nigeria, who are popularly called the Middle Belt, have warned that they would never associate with the Muslim Core North if Nigeria breaks up. The reasons that the Southerners and the Middle Belters have alleged for their positions are marginalisation, ethnic cleansing and religious terrorism by some Core Northern ethnic and religious groups. The paper then examines in details the justifiability or otherwise of those secession agitations under international human rights law, some of whose instruments are domesticated by the Federal Government of Nigeria. Such rights as the right to self-determination, indigenous peoples’ rights, right to freedom of association, right to freedom of expression and right to life are considered vis-a-vis the ongoing conflict between some of the agitators and the Nigerian Armed Forces, which have had reasons to deploy airstrikes against suspected hideouts of militiamen agitating for a sovereign Republic of Biafra. The research adopts a doctrinal method and makes use of both primary and secondary sources of data from both the international and municipal forums. It finds out that a popular agitation for self-determination or secession referendum is an inalienable, natural and supranational right under both international law and the Nigerian municipal law and that those agitations must however be conducted peacefully. With South Sudan, Western Sahara, Eritrea, East Timor, Kosovo, Crimea and Brexit, among others, as precedents, it also finds out that it is the duty of the United Nations and other concerned members of the international community under the UN Charter and other relevant treaties to insist on the conduct of a referendum in the Nigerian case to avert an imminent full-blown civil war that could precipitate unprecedented humanitarian disaster in and beyond Nigeria, which is home to one-fifth of Africa’s population. The paper accordingly calls on the UN, African Union, Economic Community of West African States, United States, United Kingdom, European Union and other responsible members of the international community to act fast under the relevant international law instruments, more so as the whole world has now become a global village. Body]

Creating new states: the strategic use of referendums in secession movements

ABSTRACT What is the value of using referendums as part of independence movements? By considering recent prominent secession movements, this article theorizes that referendums provide several strategic advantages to distinct communities seeking territorial independence. First, the referendum is a key event that transfers power away from political elites and towards citizens, who are given responsibility for deciding independence. Second, the referendum forces the central government to act by creating a date when independence will be decided (a self-created window of opportunity). Third, the referendum frames independence in terms of democracy and the right to self-determination, making it difficult for the central government to challenge. Fourth, referendum campaigns can help solidify the identity of a distinct community (or ‘resurrect’ it), thus increasing the number of citizens concerned with secession. While not always successful, secession referendums provide advantages to those groups that control their deployment.

A Krím félsziget jogi helyzete a nemzetközi jog szemszögéből


 
 
 
 Számos, a mai napig megoldatlan konfliktus terheli a nemzetközi közösséget – közülük több is az egykori Szovjetunió és jugoszlávia uti possidetis elv alapján történt felosztása miatt. Az ezen konfliktusok nyomán létrejövő de facto államok függetlenségét lényegében egyetlen nagyhatalom sem ismeri el, és ezért aztán ezen területek jogi helyzetének közeli rendezése sem tűnik valószínűnek. Sajnálatos módon számos olyan régió említhető, mely bővelkedik a hasonló megoldatlan konfliktusokban. Az oroszország holdudvarából előbukkant konfliktusok (ideértve mindenekelőtt Dél-Oszétiát, Abháziát, Hegyi Karabahot, Koszovót, a Krím félszigetet és Transznyisztriát) immáron aligha zárhatóak vissza a status quo ante palackjába.
 
 
 

El referéndum autonómico en su laberinto

Based on the provisions of Article 149.1.32.a of the Spanish Constitution, the Statutes of Autonomy of several Autonomous Communities assumed powers regarding of popular consultations; however, the attempts of the Basque Country and Catalonia to hold secession referendums limited their scope. As a consequence of the independence challenge, the Spanish Constitutional Court made a very restrictive interpretation of these titles that extended the State’s power over the entire institution of referendums. This paper analyses the assumptions and arguments of this first interpretation, the subsequent deactivation of the attempts to regulate non-referendum popular consultations as copies of real referendums and the interpretative self-correction made in ruling 137/2015 and, specially, rulings 51/2017 and 90/2017 of the Spanish Constitutional Court: These rulings infer that, within the framework of the state’s regulations for the development of the fundamental right to political participation, the Autonomous Communities can establish and regulate new types of referendum if it is so cumulatively stated by their Statutes of Autonomy and by the Spanish Organic Act on Types of Referendum.

Referendums for secession domino and redistribution

This paper presents an investigation of voting behavior and whether sequential secession occurs through democratic procedures, or not. Characteristics of our model that are not found in earlier studies are the sequential timing of votes and the introduction of income differences among regions. The main results of this study demonstrate that a domino effect induces sequential secession when neighboring countries become independent. Furthermore, we analyze two model expansions: an approval vote for secession referendums by regions and a redistribution policy. Results show that voters often change their votes between secession referendums and the approval vote, that redistribution of income decreases secession, and that it is more effective when income differences are larger.

Crimean Secession in International Law

The contemporary expansion of Russian influence in the former Soviet bloc has not been accompanied by an objective approach to framing the Crimean conflict between Russia, Ukraine, the European Union (EU), and the United States (US). The US promised that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) would not move one inch eastward, if the Berlin Wall fell. It did. NATO moved eastward, right up to Russia’s borders. The western press forgot about the US reaction in 1962, when Russian missiles were being introduced into Cuba.After the War, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia splintered into multiple nations. A half dozen oblasts in Russia’s backyard subsequently announced unilateral declarations of independence. Of these, Crimea has the most potential for removing Lite from the term Cold War Lite. If Ukraine obtains the nuclear missile defense shield it now seeks, Russia's President Putin has announced that he will move nuclear weapons into Crimea.Remedial secession is the nom de guerre for many of today's separatist movements. But its very existence clashes with various fundamentals of the international legal system.This book chapter provides detailed insights into the validity of remedial secession, the two major judicial opinions that have addressed it, and the steep, but evolving, path to legitimacy it may now be travelling. This chapter does so within the context of Crimea's secession referendum, declaration of independence, and de facto statehood, and Russia's annexation of Crimea. It covers the international community's reaction to these events — and the disparity among academic reactions to the vitality of remedial secession. It traces the UN General Assembly's 2014 Crimean debate — concluding that it is the most authoritative referee for judging Russia's claim to the validity of the Crimean secession.

The Constitutional Regulation of Scottish Secession

The paper considers how secession referendums should be regulated after the Scottish independence vote. It examines the problems and benefits raised by secession rights. It is argued that Scotland’s right to secede should be recognised in law, but the frequency of these referendums should be limited. Having considered the capacity of the Scottish Parliament to call for and regulate referendums, it is argued that the Scottish Parliament should be given the power to call a binding referendum, but only after thirty years have elapsed since the last vote. This restriction should be coupled with a mechanism allowing an early vote in exceptional circumstances: a super-majority could call an early referendum.

SUDAN: Secession Referendum

Africa Research Bulletin: Economic, Financial and Technical SeriesVolume 47, Issue 12 p. 18942C-18944B SUDAN: Secession Referendum First published: 10 February 2011 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6346.2011.03659.xRead the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Volume47, Issue12February 2011Pages 18942C-18944B RelatedInformation

Getting Back on Track in Bosnia-Herzegovina

“The international officials who have run Bosnia as a virtual protectorate since the West forced a peace deal in 1995 are eager to scale back their presence here soon,” reported the New York Times ...

Contrast in U.S. Media Coverage of two Major Canadian Elections

U.S. media have long ignored Canada. However, when Quebec came close to voting for secession from the rest of Canada in 1995, it was front-page news in major U.S. newspapers and a big story in news magazines and on network TV newscasts. Yet, the election a year earlier that had set the stage for the secession referendum was largely ignored. Both events contained the elements that gatekeeping studies say predict coverage such as proximity, relevance, implications for trade and threat to the United States, yet the coverage differed markedly.

Pinpointing Apparent Fraud in the 1861 Texas Secession Referendum

Pinpointing Apparent Fraud in the 1861 Texas Secession Referendum