Sea Surface Temperature Modes Research Articles

Covariability of decadal surface air temperature variability over Myanmar with sea surface temperature based on singular value decomposition analysis

The Myanmar’ Southeast Asian country is currently experiencing environmental changes, with temperature change being one the major contributing factors. Although many studies have shown the contribution of anthropogenic activities, the factors sustaining the observed increase in air temperature (TEMP) are not fully understood. We examined the interdependence of the surface TEMP with the sea surface temperature (SST) from 1971 to 2020 on a decadal timescale to predict changes in TEMP over a longer time period. Our analysis showed a pronounced interdecadal change in TEMP, with the highest intensity observed in the 2010s. The results show that the dominant modes of the global SST significantly influence the TEMP variation in the region at the decadal time scale. Indian Ocean (IO) SST-singular value decomposition (SVD)1 presents significant positive (negative) correlations in the southeast, and central (southwest) related to warming (cooling) TEMP in the east, northern tip, and northwest (south-Yangon and Taninthayi, and some parts of the north). The second and third modes of SST-SVD are cooling (warming) SST over the east of the Bay of Bengal (BoB), and along the Myanmar coast, which are associated with cooling(warming) TEMP patterns in the region. Significant negative correlations of decadal TEMP at the annual scale with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific (NP), the MAMJ with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and November–December–January–February (NDJF) with PDO were evidenced. Meanwhile, significant positive correlations were obtained between TEMP and AMO (NP) at the annual scale (NDJF), respectively. These findings provide valuable insights into decadal-scale TEMP patterns and their relationships with SSTs, contributing to a better understanding of TEMP variability in Myanmar, which may be helpful in climate prediction. Predicting surface TEMP on a decadal timescale is helpful in environmental management.

Independent contributions of tropical sea surface temperature modes to the interannual variability of western North Pacific tropical cyclone frequency

AbstractThis study investigates the independent contributions of three tropical sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) modes to interannual changes in summertime western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) frequency from 1982 to 2022. We primarily analyse partial regressions of TC metrics and environmental variables onto the El Niño–Southern Oscillation Modoki (ENM), North Indian Ocean (NIO) SSTA and tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SSTA indices. We find that although basinwide WNP TC frequency significantly correlates with both the ENM and NIO indices, the regions with the most significant changes in TC formation induced by these two indices are well separated. During El Niño Modoki, significant increases in TC formation concentrate over the southeastern part of the WNP, while during a warm NIO, significant decreases in TC formation concentrate over the northwestern part of the WNP. By contrast, insignificant changes in TC genesis over the WNP are solely induced by TNA SSTAs. We show that the two pathways of TNA SSTA's influence on WNP TC activity through modulation of Pacific and NIO SSTAs are of comparable importance. During El Niño Modoki, significantly enhanced TC genesis over the southeastern WNP can be explained by more favourable environmental conditions, which is linked to an anomalous low‐level cyclonic circulation over the WNP. During a warm NIO, TC genesis is significantly suppressed over the northwestern WNP, due primarily to an anomalous low‐level anticyclonic circulation‐induced decrease in relative vorticity. By contrast, during a warm TNA, no notable changes in environmental variables are found over most of the WNP, while significant flow anomalies are limited to the central‐to‐eastern Pacific and the western Atlantic. These results highlight that the TNA SSTA by itself has a limited impact on WNP TC genesis and the associated large‐scale environment.

CMIP3 and CMIP5 representation of sea surface temperature in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

This study evaluates WCRP-CMIP3 and CMIP5 representation of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Atlantic Tropical Basin. The Atlantic Ocean presents thermal variability modes on intraseasonal, interannual and decadal time-scales that affect the climate of the North Atlantic, Caribbean, Western Africa, Northeast Brazil, the Gulf of Guinea Region and Southeast Atlantic (region of the Angolan resurgence). Two main SST modes in the Atlantic are the equatorial and meridional dipoles. These principal modes of SST interannual variabilities are investigated principally by empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOFs) to periods December-January and March-May. For the period of March-May, this study too analyses the relationships of these modes from coupled models of WCRP as rainfall in Northeastern Brazil compared to the observations (1971-2000 - ERSST). This investigation showed principally that although some models showed high value correlations (above 0.8 in absolute value) for both CMIP3 and CMIP5 with observations using their first two auto values EOFs coefficients of SST in the Tropical Atlantic basin, the simulations in most CMIP3-5 models do not represented the spatial thermal configuration in the basin compared to the observations, and also largely do not reproduce the pattern of correlation between to March-May between precipitation in northern of the NEB and the TSMs in the Tropical Atlantic.

Relative importance of global warming, the IPO, and the AMO in surface air temperature and terrestrial precipitation

AbstractThe relative importance of oceanic modes to global surface air temperature (SAT) and terrestrial precipitation during 1934–2020 was investigated using a variety of statistical and dynamical system methods. Through singular spectrum analysis, we present the distribution of decadal (10–20‐year), multidecadal (20–50‐year), and secular (>50‐year) variabilities of global SAT and terrestrial precipitation anomalies. Three sea surface temperature modes were identified by singular value decomposition that affect the low‐frequency variabilities of global SAT and terrestrial precipitation anomalies—namely, global warming (GW), the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The relative importance GW, the IPO, and the AMO in SAT and terrestrial precipitation was obtained through a normalized multivariate information flow analysis. Besides a high information flow percentage (60%) from GW to global SAT, especially over the northern Indian Ocean and tropical West Pacific, information flow from the AMO to the northwestern Pacific was also found. In terms of terrestrial precipitation, a large area with a wet trend was found over Eurasia at mid‐to‐high latitudes, and this trend was especially remarkable in the boreal winter half‐year (November–April), as compared with that in the boreal summer half‐year (May–October). By employing artificial neutral networks with a self‐organized map to cluster the key patterns of vertically integrated water vapour flux, we found that the synoptic circulation related to the wet trend is characterized by westerly flow that transports water vapour from the northeastern Atlantic to Eurasia, which is favourable for precipitation there both in the boreal winter and summer half‐year.

The variability of winter North Atlantic blocking and cold extremes connected to North Atlantic Sea surface temperature modes and ENSO: The mediated role of North Atlantic jet

In this paper, the linkage of the sub-seasonal variability of North Atlantic blocking (NAB) to the interannual-to-decadal winter midlatitude North Atlantic jet (NAJ) is examined. The variability of NAJ in meridional position (strength) is characterized by the first (second) empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the winter-mean 46-days low-pass filtered North Atlantic 500-hPa zonal wind. The composite reveals that NAB exhibits weak (strong) westward movement and small (large) zonal width during the north- (south-) shifted NAJ winters, which result in severe cold anomalies over the southern Europe (northern Eurasia and eastern North America) and are characterized by a precursor of the positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation. In contrast, the NAB event during the strong (weak) NAJ winters mainly originates from the intensification of a ridge over North Europe (Atlantic), which has short (long) lifetime, small (large) intensity, small (large) zonal width, and leads to weather influences similar to those during south (north-) shifted NAJ winters. The underlying mechanism of the sub-seasonal variability of NAB can be explained by the nonlinear multi-scale interaction model of atmospheric blocking from the perspective of the meridional potential vorticity gradient.It is further shown that the meridional position of NAJ exhibits significant interannual variability, which is associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via the changes in the Walker Cell and the Atlantic Hadley circulation as well as the second EOF of surface sea temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic. The strength of NAJ shows significant interannual-to-decadal variability, which is mainly regulated by the first EOF mode of North Atlantic SST.

Compound drought and heat waves variation and association with SST modes across China

Compound drought and heatwaves (CDH) have garnered increasing attention because concurrent extreme events can exacerbate the harmful impacts caused by univariate extremes. However, various severities in CDH events and their relationships with sea surface temperature (SST) variations in China remain little understood. Here, we accurately identify CDH events and multi-aspect of characteristics using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the excess heat factor (EHF) during the extended summer (May–September) of 1961–2017. The evolution of multifaceted characteristics of CDH and their association with SST variation are further explored. The results suggest that the number, frequency, duration and intensity of regional CDH events show heterogeneous spatial patterns, with a significant increasing trend. A consistent abrupt transition in CDH characteristics averaged over China occurred in the period of 1993–1996. Mild and moderate CDHs occur more commonly in Northwest and North China, whereas severe CDHs are mainly found in central and eastern regions. Mild and moderate CDHs are more susceptible to SST modes than severe CDH, and there are strong positive correlations between mild and moderate CDH characteristics and SST variations in the northwest and northern regions. Compared to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays a dominant role in the intensifications of mild and moderate CDH events. Regionally, the northwest and north have experienced longer, more frequent and severe CDH events during the positive phase of IOD. These findings reveal the divergent evolutions in CDH characteristics with various severities and inconsistent impacts of different SST modes on the compound events.

The compound impacts of sea surface temperature modes in the Indian and North Atlantic oceans on the extreme precipitation days in the Yangtze River Basin

The compound impacts of sea surface temperature modes in the Indian and North Atlantic oceans on the extreme precipitation days in the Yangtze River Basin

On Uncertainty in Extreme Weather Forecasts in a Changing Climate: August 2022 Floods in South Korea

In August 2022, South Korea experienced massive and large-scale flooding, preceded by the highest record in 80 years. The torrential rain over several consecutive days caused devastating flooding events and landslides in Seoul, and underestimated rainfall forecasts forced several hundred people to evacuate, leaving infrastructures damaged substantially. In this study, we use high-resolution observational reanalysis data to investigate spatial and temporal evolutions of atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the 2022 August flooding events. We show that a prolonged dipole atmospheric system, with low in the north and high pressure in the south, reinforces a persistent and strong stationary front causing succeeding rain. Given the prominent westerly winds accompanied by the dipole pressure system, which acts as a channel of westerly winds across middle Korea, anomalously warm sea surface temperature (SST) over the Yellow sea located west of Korea plays a key role in supplying moisture and heat for the rainfall events. The principal component analysis and SST trend results suggest that the intensity of distinct dipole modes of atmospheric pressure and Yellow sea SST have significantly increased over the recent decades as known consequences of global warming. Our findings indicate that climate change may increase uncertainties in climate and weather extremes forecasts; thus, further efforts and attempts to improve our understanding of current and future climate systems are highly important.

Two regimes of inter-basin interactions between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans on interannual timescales

Understanding the inter-basin interactions between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is of great concern due to their substantial global climatic implications. By analyzing observational reanalysis datasets (1948–2020), we found that there are two regimes in Atlantic–Pacific inter-basin interactions: (1) the Pacific-driven regime, and (2) the Atlantic-driven regime. In the Pacific-driven regime before the mid-1980s, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in winter effectively drives the primary mode of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Atlantic (i.e., North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) mode) in the following spring. The NTA mode has a meridional contrast of SSTA along the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, similar to the Atlantic Meridional Mode. Whereas, in the Atlantic-driven regime after the mid-1980s, the ENSO effect on the NTA becomes remarkably weaker, so that the NTA mode is featured with a SSTA monopole. Notably, the NTA mode without the meridional contrast of SSTA is capable of modulating an ENSO event with a lag. Our analyses of the latest climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phases 6 support the hypothesis that the two regimes engendered by the Atlantic–Pacific inter-basin interactions are likely due to natural variability.

Lagged effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on decadal variation in global land precipitation

<p>The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as the leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, modulates the global temperature and precipitation. While previous studies have shown a negative relationship between the global precipitation and the PDO, the time-delayed feature of this relationship remains underexplored. Here we investigate the lagged effect of the decadal variations in the PDO on the global land precipitation using cross-correlation at multiple scales. We find that there is a delayed response of precipitation to the PDO, with the regional correlation peaking at a certain delay and gradually decreasing with increasing lag time. We note the asymmetric impacts of the positive and negative PDO phases on precipitation. Seasonal analysis reveals that the PDO is related to land precipitation during the subsequent season relative to the rest of the year, with the highest correlation occurring in the boreal winter. The delay in response is likely due to the constant SST forcing of the PDO to the atmospheric circulation. This study highlights the lag duration of the PDO�Cprecipitation relationship, potentially enriching our understanding of this relationship and enhancing climate predictions on decadal timescales.</p>

Uncertainty in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation derived from different observed datasets and their possible causes

As a leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic in both observations and model simulations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can have a substantial influence on regional and global climate. By using Low-Frequency Component Analysis, we explore the uncertainties of the resulting AMO indices and the corresponding spatial patterns derived from three observational SST datasets. We found that the known coherent spatial pattern of the AMO at the basin scale over the North Atlantic appears in two out of the three datasets. Further analysis indicates that both the warming trend and the different techniques used to construct these observed gridded SSTs contribute to the AMO’s spatial coherence over the North Atlantic, especially during periods of sparse data sampling. The SST in the Extended Reconstructed SST dataset version 5 (ERSSTv5), changes from being systematically below the other datasets during the dense sampling periods on either side of the Second World War (WWII), to systematically above the other datasets during WWII, thereby introducing an artificial 10–20-year variability that affects the AMO’s spatial coherence. This coherence in the AMO’s spatial pattern is also affected by bias adjustment in ERSSTv5 at relative cool (i.e., non-summer) seasons, and by the heterogeneous North Atlantic warming pattern. The different AMO patterns can induce the different effects of wind, surface heat fluxes, and then drive ocean circulation and its heat transport convergence, especially for some seasons. For AMO indices, both the different detrending methods and different observational data result in uncertainty for the period 1935–1950. Such SST uncertainty is important to detect the relative role of the atmosphere and ocean in shaping the AMO.

Dominant Coupling Mode of SST in Maritime Continental Region and East Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation

AbstractUsing a series of data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and singular value decomposition (SVD) method, the dominant coupled mode between sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in Maritime Continent (MC) and circulation anomaly in East Asia in summertime and its underlying mechanism are revealed. Results show that the first SVD mode is characterized by the in‐phase variations of SST anomaly in the entire MC and sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly in East Asia, and their co‐variation is measured by an SVD joint index, . Based on composite difference fields, the ocean mixed layer heat budget reveals that the maintenance of the MC regional SST anomaly is jointly determined by ocean dynamics and heat flux. The anomalous SST warming near Java Island is dominated by the meridional advection of ocean current, while the SST warming in the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific are mainly contributed by the increased downward latent heat flux and shortwave radiation flux. The SLP anomaly pattern in East Asia coupled with SST anomaly in the MC region is represented by the anomalous anticyclone in the Northwest Pacific, which can be maintained by the ‐related atmospheric vertical cell. The ‐related circulation anomalies tend to favor the summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the south of Yunnan‐Guizhou Plateau, but lead to negative precipitation anomaly in central and Northeast China.

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Concentration in the Barents Sea

Sea ice loss and accelerated warming in the Barents Sea have recently been one of the main concerns of climate research. In this study, we investigated the trends and possible relationships between sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice concentration (SIC), and local and large-scale atmospheric parameters over the last 39 years (1982 to 2020). We examined the interannual and long-term spatiotemporal variability of SST and SIC by performing an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The SST warming rate from 1982 through 2020 was 0.35 ± 0.04 °C/decade and 0.40 ± 0.04 °C/decade in the ice-covered and ice-free regions, respectively. This climate warming had a significant impact on sea-ice conditions in the Barents Sea, such as a strong decline in the SIC (−6.52 ± 0.78%/decade) and a shortening of the sea-ice season by about −26.1 ± 7.5 days/decade, resulting in a 3.4-month longer summer ice-free period over the last 39 years. On the interannual and longer-term scales, the Barents Sea has shown strong coherent spatiotemporal variability in both SST and SIC. The temporal evolution of SST and SIC are strongly correlated, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influences the spatiotemporal variability of SST and SIC. The highest spatial variability (i.e., the center of action of the first EOF mode) of SST was observed over the region bounded by the northern and southern polar fronts, which are influenced by both warm Atlantic and cold Arctic waters. The largest SIC variability was found over the northeastern Barents Sea and over the Storbanken and Olga Basin. The second EOF mode revealed a dipole structure with out-of-phase variability between the ice-covered and ice-free regions for the SST and between the Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya regions for SIC. In order to investigate the processes that generate these patterns, a correlation analysis was applied to a set of oceanic (SST) and atmospheric parameters (air temperature, zonal, and meridional wind components) and climate indices. This analysis showed that SST and SIC are highly correlated with air temperature and meridional winds and with two climate indices (AMO and East Atlantic Pattern (EAP)) on an interannual time scale. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) only correlated with the second EOF mode of SST on a decadal time scale.

Effects of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis

Abstract This study quantifies the contributions of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations during the boreal warm season to the interannual-to-decadal variability in tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) over the Northern Hemisphere ocean basins. The first seven leading modes of tropical SST variability are found to affect basinwide TCGF in one or more basins, and are related to canonical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), global warming (GW), the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). These modes account for approximately 58%, 50%, and 56% of the variance in basinwide TCGF during 1969–2018 over the North Atlantic (NA), northeast Pacific (NEP), and northwest Pacific (NWP) Oceans, respectively. The SST effect is weak on TCGF variability in the north Indian Ocean. The SST modes dominating TCGF variability differ among the basins: ENSO, the AMO, AMM, and GW are dominant for the NA; ENSO and the AMO for the NEP; and the PMM, interannual AMO, and GW for the NWP. A specific mode may have opposite effects on TCGF in different basins, particularly between the NA and NEP. Sliding-window multiple linear regression analyses show that the SST effects on basinwide TCGF are stable in time in the NA and NWP, but have strengthened since the 1990s in the NEP. The SST effects on local TC genesis and occurrence frequency are also explored, and the underlying physical mechanisms are examined by diagnosing a genesis potential index and its components.

Holocene variation in the Indian Summer Monsoon modulated by the tropical Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature mode

The evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) has been widely investigated owing to its significant climatic and socioeconomic influences. However, debates remain concerning the temporal variation during the Holocene and its driving mechanisms, particularly the potential contribution of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). Here, we present a continuous sediment record covering the past 11.1 kyrs from the Beihai Wetland, southwestern China. The grain size, geochemical element composition and total organic carbon content (TOC) were analyzed and interpreted in terms of the sedimentary conditions, catchment erosion and regional climate variations. Higher detrital inputs and possibly high water levels were determined during the early to mid-Holocene period, suggesting strong catchment erosion under an intensified ISM. The maximum monsoon intensity appeared between 7.5 and 5.2 cal. kyr BP, which is broadly consistent with various ISM records. We propose that such mid-Holocene monsoon strengthening was primarily triggered by the TIO SST anomaly modes, i.e., the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode. Based on Holocene SST records from the TIO, a positive SST anomaly (positive IOB mode) and positive zonal SST anomaly gradient (positive IOD mode) may have occurred during the mid-Holocene, which jointly triggered intensification of the ISM. Our findings emphasize the significant contribution of the TIO in modulating the summer monsoon system. The abrupt increases in TOC content and median grain size indicate the formation of the current wetland system at approximately 5.2 cal. kyr BP following the decline in regional moisture as well as the retreat of the ISM. In addition, notable human impacts were determined during the last 800 years, as indicated by intensified catchment erosion in response to human-induced deforestation.

Decadal Variation of Atmospheric Rivers in Relation to North Atlantic Tripole SST Mode

The North Atlantic tripole (NAT) is the leading mode of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the decadal time scale. Although the NAT is forced by North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), it also has an effect on the atmosphere; for example, the early winter tripole SST signal can influence storm tracks in March. As the NAT not only changes the baroclinicity of the lower layer but also modifies the moisture being released into the atmosphere, we surmise that the NAT has an impact on moisture transport and atmospheric rivers in the decadal time scale. Using ERA5 reanalysis data, the decadal variations in Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in the North Atlantic in boral winter in relation to NAT phases were studied. During the positive NAT phase, the positive SST in the central and western North Atlantic increases the humidity and causes an anticyclonic wind response, which enhances the northeastward transport of moisture. As a result, ARs tend to be longer and transport more moisture toward northwestern Europe. This causes enhanced extreme rain in the UK and Norway. During the negative NAT phase, the positive SST anomalies in the south and east of the North Atlantic provide more moisture, induce a southward shift of the ARs and enhance extreme rain in the Iberian Peninsula. The Gulf Stream (GS) front is stronger during the negative NAT phase, increasing the frequency of the atmospheric front and enlarging the rain rate in ARs.

Evaluation of the Performance of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models in Simulating the Victoria Mode–El Niño Relationship

AbstractThe Victoria mode (VM) is the second dominant sea surface temperature mode in the North Pacific, forced by North Pacific Oscillation–like extratropical atmospheric variability. Observational studies have shown that the boreal spring VM is closely connected to the following winter El Niño, with the VM efficiently acting as a precursor signal to El Niño events. This study evaluates the relationship of the spring VM with subsequent winter El Niño in the preindustrial simulations of phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). We found that most CMIP5 and CMIP6 models can simulate the basic characteristics of the VM reasonably well. The current CMIP6 models simulate the VM–El Niño connections more realistically as compared to the earlier CMIP5 models. The analysis further suggests that the improved capability of the CMIP6 models to simulate the VM–El Niño relationship is because the CMIP6 models are better able to capture the VM-related surface air–sea thermodynamic coupling process over the subtropical/tropical Pacific and the seasonal evolution of VM-related anomalous subsurface ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific.

Evaluation of the Performance of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models in Simulating the Victoria Mode–El Niño Relationship

AbstractThe Victoria mode (VM) is the second dominant sea surface temperature mode in the North Pacific, forced by North Pacific Oscillation–like extratropical atmospheric variability. Observational studies have shown that the boreal spring VM is closely connected to the following winter El Niño, with the VM efficiently acting as a precursor signal to El Niño events. This study evaluates the relationship of the spring VM with subsequent winter El Niño in the preindustrial simulations of phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). We found that most CMIP5 and CMIP6 models can simulate the basic characteristics of the VM reasonably well. The current CMIP6 models simulate the VM–El Niño connections more realistically as compared to the earlier CMIP5 models. The analysis further suggests that the improved capability of the CMIP6 models to simulate the VM–El Niño relationship is because the CMIP6 models are better able to capture the VM-related surface air–sea thermodynamic coupling process over the subtropical/tropical Pacific and the seasonal evolution of VM-related anomalous subsurface ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific.

The severe drought of 1876–1878 in North China and possible causes

An extreme drought occurred from 1876 to 1878 in most regions of northern China, leading to a series of social impacts, including harvest failures, price inflation, and population migration. Most regions of the Northern Hemisphere concurrently experienced extreme drought. Here, we use reconstructed high-resolution hydroclimatic (Palmer Drought Severity Index/precipitation) datasets and investigate the seasonal–annual hydroclimatic spatial patterns and drought intensity in North China from 1876 to 1878. Furthermore, we select combined sea surface temperature (SST) modes with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño conditions from the 1200-year control run simulations of HadCM3 to determine the possible causes of this severe drought. The extent and intensity of the selected SST modes are similar to those in the Pacific and Indian oceans during the 1876–1878 period from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) dataset. The results show that the large-scale drought of 1876–1878 is mainly driven by El Niño and a positive PDO, while the effect of IOD is not significant. El Niño may trigger the circumglobal teleconnection of the Northern Hemisphere. And, the meridional disturbance of the eastward Rossby wave train at mid-latitudes may change the intensity of the troughs and ridges and further block water vapor transport from ocean to land.

Causes of the long-term variability of southwestern South America precipitation in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model

Southwestern South America (SWSA) has undergone frequent and persistent droughts in recent decades with severe impacts on water resources, and consequently, on socio-economic activities at a sub-continental scale. The local drying trend in this region has been associated with the expansion of the subtropical drylands over the last decades. It has been shown that SWSA precipitation is linked to large-scale dynamics modulated by internal climate variability and external forcing. This work aims at unravelling the causes of this long-term trend toward dryness in the context of the emerging climate change relying on a large set simulations of the state-of-the-art IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our results identify the leading role of dynamical changes induced by external forcings, over the local thermodynamical effects and teleconnections with internal global modes of sea surface temperature. Our findings show that the simulated long-term changes of SWSA precipitation are dominated by externally forced anomalous expansion of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell (HC) and a persistent positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) trend since the late 1970s. Long-term changes in the HC extent and the SAM show strong co-linearity. They are attributable to stratospheric ozone depletion in austral spring-summer and increased atmospheric greenhouse gases all year round. Future ssp585 and ssp126 scenarios project a dominant role of anthropogenic forcings on the HC expansion and the subsequent SWSA drying, exceeding the threshold of extreme drought due to internal variability as soon as the 2040s, and suggest that these effects will persist until the end of the twenty-first century.