Seasonal Temperature Variations Research Articles

Evaluation of soil temperature in CMIP6 multimodel simulations

Soil temperature plays a crucial role in understanding land-atmosphere interactions. The Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) provides valuable information on soil temperature, however, the performance of these models in capturing soil temperature variations remains unclear. To comprehensively assess the performance of CMIP6 in simulating soil temperature, we employed a set of in-situ observation data, observation-derived gridded data (TS-GCB) and reanalysis data (ERA5L) to build various evaluating metrics for the surface (0–5 cm) and subsurface (5–15 cm) soils. At the global scale, the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of CMIP6 generally captured the spatial, annual and seasonal variations of soil temperature, but overestimated measured soil temperature by 1.86 °C (vs. TS-GCB, surface) and 2.16 °C (vs. TS-GCB, subsurface), indicating more heat accumulated in soils than the reality. Surface soil temperature was better represented by MME compared to the subsurface soil layer (vs. TS-GCB). In addition, we found the largest simulation bias in the tropical zone, and both positive and negative bias in the arid regions. The large model spread of the individual models in representing soil temperatures in cold regions or periods highlights the needs of improved understanding of how snow and freeze-thaw affect soil thermal dynamics. Overall, the performance of MME is superior to that of the majority of individual models (vs. TS-GCB). Locally, the large discrepancy among observation-derived data, reanalysis data and CMIP6 simulations suggested that it is imperative to acquire more ground-truth soil temperature to better inform model simulation and forecasting.

Investigating the Morphometry and Hydrometeorological Variability of a Fragile Tropical Karstic Lake of the Yucatán Peninsula: Bacalar Lagoon

Comprehensive morphometric and hydrometeorological studies on Bacalar Lagoon, Mexico’s largest tropical karstic lake and a significant aquatic system of the Yucatán Peninsula, are lacking. This study provides a detailed analysis of its bathymetry, morphometry, and hydrometeorological characteristics. The lake’s main basin stretches more than 52.7 km in length, with widths varying from 0.18 km to 2.28 km. It has a volume of 554.4 million cubic meters, with an average depth of 8.85 m, reaching depths of up to 26 m in the north and featuring sub-lacustrine dolines in the south, with depths of 38 m, 48.5 m, and 63.6 m. The study reveals seasonal variations in surface water temperature, closely linked to air temperature (r = 0.89), and immediate responses of water levels to hydrometeorological events. Water level fluctuations also exhibit seasonal patterns that are correlated with regional aquifer conditions, with a lag of 2 months after seasonal rainfall. Interannual variability in rainfall and water levels was observed. From 2010 to 2012, rainfall consistently remained below its mean climatic value, due to a prolonged La Niña event, while the exceptionally wet conditions in 2020 were also associated with La Niña. Extreme and anomalous hydrometeorological events, such as those following tropical storm Cristobal in 2020, revealed the fragility of Bacalar Lagoon, causing a notable transformation in lake color and transparency, shifting it from its typical oligotrophic state to eutrophic conditions that lasted longer than a year. These color changes raise questions about the factors impacting ecological health in tropical karstic regions. Additional factors affecting water quality in the BL in 2020, such as deforestation, coastline changes, and urban growth, warrant further investigation. Our study can serve as a starting landmark.

Seasonal effects and trophic pressure shape the responses of species interactions in a tropical seagrass meadow to marine heatwaves

Species interactions are influenced by changes to the environment, such as seasonal variations in temperature, and human‐driven warming including marine heatwaves (MHWs). Alteration of species interactions, particularly those involving foundation species, can shape ecosystem structure, stability and dynamics. Marine habitats, notably seagrass meadows, are threatened by human‐driven environmental changes including MHWs which have the potential to alter trophic interactions through effects on various community members including seagrasses, epiphytic algae, and epiphytic algae grazers. Here we examined the effects of a simulated marine heatwave (control versus + 4°C) in different seasons and grazer occurrence on seagrass traits, epiphytic algae growth, grazer biomass and grazing rate. We found the season in which the MHW occurred affected the seagrass response and grazer influence. In winter, the MHW had positive effects on seagrass growth and nitrogen content and caused significant decreases in epiphytic algae growth. However, in summer, grazer presence increased seagrass growth and biomass, but growth was reduced by the interaction with the MHW. The season in which the MHW occurred affected the magnitude of change in leaf tissue isotopic values and C:N ratio, with greater changes occurring in summer. Epiphytic algal growth was markedly reduced by the interaction between all three factors, leading to the near lack of epiphyte growth in summer with grazers present under the MHW. Summer was also associated with a greater increase in snail biomass (most notably under MHW conditions), and increased snail grazing rate. From these results, we show that winter MHWs can drive increased growth of seagrasses but minimal impacts on grazers, while in summer increased grazer activity can interact with elevated temperatures from a MHW to increase their algal consumption. By examining responses across multiple trophic levels and distinct seasons, we achieve a more representative and realistic depiction of human‐induced environmental impacts on ecosystems.

Potential climates and habitability on Gl 514 b: a super-Earth exoplanet with high eccentricity

ABSTRACT The recently discovered super-Earth Gl 514 b, orbiting a nearby M0.5-1.0 star at 7.6 pc, is one of the best benchmark exoplanets for understanding the potential climate states of eccentric planets. The elongated (e = 0.45$^{+0.15}_{-0.14}$) orbit of Gl 514 b, which only partially lies in the Conservative Habitable Zone, suggests a dynamically young system, where the spin-orbit tidal synchronization may not have yet occurred up to the present time. In the present work, we use a seasonal-latitudinal energy balance model, EOS-ESTM, to explore the potential impact of both constrained and unconstrained planetary, orbital, and atmospheric parameters on the Gl 514 b habitability, mapped in terms of surface temperature. We test three distinct CO2-dominated atmospheres by varying the CH4 concentration values (0 per cent, 0.1 per cent, and 1 per cent) and the total surface pressure. As a general trend, we find that habitable conditions are favoured by high-CH4 and high-pressure regimes. Habitability also increases for high-axis obliquities (at least until the appearance of an icebelt), long-rotation periods, and high-ocean fractional coverage. If the ocean fraction is low, then also the argument of periastron becomes relevant. Our results are robust against changes of the continental distribution. Thus, we conclude that Gl 514 b can potentially maintain temperate surface conditions with modest seasonal temperature variations under a wide variety of planetary, orbital, and atmospheric conditions. Despite no transit have been detected yet, the results found in this work should motivate the community to invest time in future observations.

Optimization of the Water–Energy–Carbon Nexus in the Residential Water Uses of Shanghai, China

Residential water use in urban areas directly affects household energy consumption and associated carbon emissions. Reducing residential water use through water saving can lead to substantial energy saving and lower carbon emissions. Household choices in water appliances and fixtures and water-use behaviors shape water consumption patterns. This paper presents a study in Shanghai, China, where the water consumption structure of households was analyzed through a comprehensive survey. In addition, a season-differentiated water–energy–carbon nexus optimization model with Monte Carlo simulation was built to minimize the costs associated with water and energy usage while maximizing carbon emission reduction. The survey data revealed Shanghai’s water demand structure, thereby highlighting the water-use influence in the city on urban household energy consumption and carbon emissions, which are affected by seasonal temperature variations. The results provide useful insights into the intricate relationships among water use, energy consumption, and carbon emissions at the scale of urban households.

Seasonal exploitation of intertidal resources at El Mazo (N Iberia) reveals optimized human subsistence strategies during the Mesolithic in Atlantic Europe

Over the last few decades, research has significantly enhanced our understanding of the role played by shellfish in human subsistence during the Mesolithic period along the Atlantic coast of Europe. Instrumental to this advance has been the analysis of stable oxygen isotope measurements (δ18O) from mollusc shells, which offers valuable insights into the seasonality of shellfish exploitation. The δ18O values serve as reliable indicators of past seasonal seawater temperature variations experienced by the molluscs, enabling us to accurately determine the time of year when past humans collected them. Recent studies using this approach have successfully identified seasonal exploitation patterns of the topshell Phorcus lineatus (da Costa, 1778) in Atlantic Europe. However, uncertainties remain regarding the exploitation schedule of Patella depressa Pennant 1777, one of the most abundantly collected species in Mesolithic sites. Here we used shell δ18O values of P. depressa from the Mesolithic sites of El Mazo (Northern Iberia) to determine its seasonality of exploitation. Our study reveals that P. depressa was prevalently exploited during colder months. Modern specimens of the same limpet species were also collected during two annual cycles to assess potential seasonal changes in meat yield return. Results obtained has profound implications for better understanding how last coastal foragers managed available littoral resources throughout the year.

Driving soil N2O emissions under nitrogen application by soil environmental factor changes in garlic-maize rotation systems

In multiple cropping systems, optimizing nitrogen (N) input can mitigate N2O emissions and sustain agricultural productivity in frequently disturbed environments. Nonetheless, there remains a notable gap in understanding the role of soil environment in the N application process. Hence, a three-annual field experiment spanning six growth seasons from 2019 to 2022 was conducted to assess the impacts of surface water filled-pore space (WFPS), NO3−−N, and meteorological factors under combined N applications during garlic (G: 300 and 240 kg N ha−1) and maize seasons (M: 220, 175, and 130 kg N ha−1) on soil N2O emissions and crop yields. The findings showed that reducing the annual N application rate by 45−150 kg ha−1 led to a significant decrease in N2O emission flux by 27.7%−69.4% and 30.7%−53.6% in maize and garlic season respectively, compared to conventional N application (G300M220). However, decreasing N application notably reduced garlic yield by 4.5–22.8%. Furthermore, reducing annual N application decreased net environmental and diminished net environmental and economic benefits (NEEB) by 3.7%−28.9%. Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that the residual NO3–−N in the soil before nitrogen application significantly influenced short-term N2O emissions post-application, while WFPS exerting a more pronounced effect during the maize season. Precipitation and temperature exhibited contrasting impacts on N2O emissions in the two crop seasons. Principal component analysis revealed that supplemental irrigation enhances crop yield in the maize growing season but also exacerbated N2O emissions due to the alternation of dry and wet conditions. Precipitation in the garlic growing season emerged as a crucial meteorological factor affecting crop yield and N2O emissions. The NEEB analysis suggested that reducing 45 kg N ha−1 in the maize season (G300M175) represents a more balanced N application approach to mitigate productivity and environmental risks in rotation systems. Therefore, accounting for the stimulating effect of soil environmental factors during the short-term N application process, adjusting irrigation practices based on seasonal precipitation and temperature variations can enhance productivity and reduce gaseous nitrogen losses in multiple cropping systems within semi-arid regions.

Shallow-water temperature seasonality in the middle Cretaceous mid-latitude northwestern Pacific

Temperature seasonality during the middle Cretaceous provides vital information about climate dynamics and ecological traits of organisms under the conditions of the “supergreenhouse” Earth. However, sub-annual scale paleotemperature records in the mid-latitude region remain limited. In this study, sclerochronological and stable oxygen isotope (δ18O) analyses of bivalve fossils from the northwestern Pacific (paleolatitude: 44°N) were used to estimate their life history and sub-annual scale temperature patterns of the middle Cretaceous. The materials studied included Cucullaea (Idonearca) delicatostriata and Aphrodina pseudoplana recovered from middle Turonian (middle Cretaceous) shallow marine deposits in Hokkaido, northern Japan. Growth increment width and shell δ18O of C. (I.) delicatostriata revealed that the growth rate was temporally maximized and then minimized, which can be interpreted as representing spring and winter growth, respectively. Approximately 25 fortnightly growth increments occurred within that cycle, suggesting that shell formation proceeded continuously throughout the year. Based on shell δ18O values, shallow-water temperatures from 28°C to 35°C with 7°C seasonality were estimated, under the assumption that seawater δ18O values were annually invariant at −1‰ relative to VSMOW. This temperature seasonality in the middle Cretaceous is more than 5°C smaller than the seasonality of modern shallow-water environments at the same latitudes. These findings, taken together with previous studies of other oceanic regions, suggest that the Northern Hemisphere had low seasonal shallow-water temperature variation of up to 10°C in the middle Cretaceous.

Estimation of the Increase Potential of Global Soil CO<sub>2</sub> Efflux by Surface Air and Soil Warming Based on the Mathematical Model Formula for Diurnal and Seasonal Variations in Soil Temperature

Estimation of the Increase Potential of Global Soil CO<sub>2</sub> Efflux by Surface Air and Soil Warming Based on the Mathematical Model Formula for Diurnal and Seasonal Variations in Soil Temperature

Quantifying current and potential future impacts of balsam woolly adelgid infestation on forest biomass

Balsam woolly adelgid (Adelges piceae; BWA) is an invasive forest pest in the US whose infestation in fir forests can cause widespread tree mortality. A growing body of evidence suggests that the severity of BWA’s effects is linked to climatic conditions, where sites featuring seasonally warmer temperatures tend to demonstrate higher degrees of insect-induced forest degradation. Thus, a warming climate may promote the expansion of BWA-driven damage, particularly in highly susceptible subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) forests. The degree to which climate change may foster BWA infestation and the relationship between current and future infestation damage severity are largely unknown. To understand BWA’s potential climate-driven impacts on subalpine fir forests now and in the future, we built a field-validated, spatially explicit predictive model that estimates BWA infestation severity as a function of locally downscaled temperature variables. Using only four seasonal temperature variables, our model was able to explain over 78% of variance in measured severity. We applied that model to the prediction of severity for five different time periods (2020, 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100), with the 2040 and onward predictions being driven by four separate climatic shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). These high resolution (∼30 m) maps were compared to spatially coincident modeled estimates of subalpine fir aboveground biomass, the results of which provide valuable insight into the degree to which BWA may drive forest degradation, loss of ecosystem services, and increase in available fuels. In northern Utah, the southeasternmost extent of BWA infestation in the western US, the two major mountain ranges, Wasatch and Uinta, demonstrated very different climatic susceptibility to infestation damage, with the former being highly exposed to BWA-induced degradation under even moderate climate projections, and the latter being fairly robust against BWA’s effects in all but the most extreme climate scenarios. In 2020, 41% of the study area’s subalpine fir biomass is climatically exposed to some level of damage from BWA. By 2100, even under moderate climate projections (SSP245), 79% will be exposed, with 37% predicted to feature relatively high severity. By placing our results within the context of the Resist, Accept, Direct land management framework, we offer spatially explicit guidance to inform current and future silvicultural practices to mitigate future damage to subalpine fir forests at the leading edge of BWA expansion in the western US.

Pitfalls in diagnosing temperature extremes

Worsening temperature extremes are among the most severe impacts of human-induced climate change. These extremes are often defined as rare events that exceed a specific percentile threshold within the distribution of daily maximum temperature. The percentile-based approach is chosen to follow regional and seasonal temperature variations so that extremes can occur globally and in all seasons, and frequently uses a running seasonal window to increase the sample size for the threshold calculation. Here, we show that running seasonal windows as used in many studies in recent years introduce a time-, region-, and dataset-depended bias that can lead to a striking underestimation of the expected extreme frequency. We reveal that this bias arises from artificially mixing the mean seasonal cycle into the extreme threshold and propose a simple solution that essentially eliminates it. We then use the corrected extreme frequency as reference to show that the bias also leads to an overestimation of future heatwave changes by as much as 30% in some regions. Based on these results we stress that running seasonal windows should not be used without correction for estimating extremes and their impacts.

Measurement and characteristics of radon flow in an extremely arid region based on a closed-system earth-air model

Radon (222Rn) is a radioactive gas that occurs naturally in the soil and is harmful to the environment and health. However, the measuring the amount of radon flowing is challenging. This study reveals the mechanism responsible for radon transportation and concentration variation, the main driving forces acting, and the key factors operating in the vadose zone. In this study, two separate holes were used to monitor the amount of earth-air and radon flowing in and out of the soil in the extremely arid region in China where the Mogao Grottoes are located. Using a closed-system model, the quantity, characteristics, and regularity of the flow of earth-air and radon were thus determined on daily and yearly timescales. The same patterns of variation in earth-air flow and radon concentration were found at the two sites, both depending on the variation in the atmospheric pressure (AP). When the AP decreases, earth-air flows out from the soil with a high radon concentration. Conversely, when the AP increases, earth-air enters into the soil with a low radon concentration. Thus, radon is continuously emitted from the soil. The concentration of radon in the earth-air is proportional to the rate of flow of earth-air and therefore increases as the AP decreases. The radon emission also varies with the seasonal variation in temperature and AP, which is high in summer and low in winter. On a daily timescale, the radon varies in a bimodal manner. Therefore, the net amount of radon emitted from the soil is positively correlated with the amplitude of the AP fluctuation, temperature, soil porosity, and thickness of the vadose zone. The atmospheric pumping is the main driving force responsible for the radon emission. However, the surface closure, landform, cracks, faults, grain size, pore structure, soil adsorption, basal uranium/radium, salts, wind, lunar cycle, latitude and altitude have important effects on the number of radon emission. As such, it provides a scientific basis for the effective utilization of radon and prevention of its emission from soil.

How do seasonal temperature variations influence interplay between toxic and non-toxic cyanobacterial blooms? Evidence from modeling and experimental data

Summer cyanobacterial blooms exhibit a dynamic interplay between toxic and non-toxic genotypes, significantly influencing the cyanotoxin levels within a lake. The challenge lies in accurately predicting these toxin concentrations due to the significant temporal fluctuations in the proportions of toxic and non-toxic genotypes. Typically, the toxic genotypes dominate during the early and late summer periods, while the non-toxic variants prevail in mid-summer. To dissect this phenomenon, we propose a model that accounts for the competitive interaction between toxic and non-toxic genotypes, as well as seasonal temperature variations. Our numerical simulations suggest that the optimal temperature of the toxic genotypes is lower than that of the optimal temperatures of the non-toxic counterparts. This difference of optimal temperature may potentially contribute to explain the dominance of toxic genotypes at the early and late summer periods, situation often observed in the field. Experimental data from the laboratory align qualitatively with our simulation results, enabling a better understanding of complex interplays between toxic and non-toxic cyanobacteria.

Prediction of movable bed resistance in open channels with dune forms incorporating the effects of flow separation and water temperature

Flow separation behind the dune forms may have reduced the contact area between the flows and the bed surface, in addition to producing form drag in open channels. In this study, a novel predictor is developed based on the underlying mechanism of movable bed resistance across a dune-dominated bed. The mechanism is derived to a new formula based on the energy loss division approach to generalize the relationships among the grain drag, form drag and flow separation. The flow separation length is expressed to quantify the flow separation effect with a modified empirical method. Additionally, the water temperature effect is incorporated into the novel predictor due to the inclusion of fluid viscosity in both the roughness function and suspension number. A global database with a wide spectrum of measurements from the available literature was created to test the novel predictor. Approximately 83.3 % of flume data fall within a range of ± 30 % error, and ∼ 80.0 % of field data plot within this range. The optimized predictor has a better accuracy than the other four previously developed models in all five evaluation indicators. Furthermore, this predictor effectively reflects the impacts of water temperature on flow resistance to reproduce four variation modes. The diverse modes are jointly determined by suspension number and roughness Reynolds number. In actual river management, this predictor is used to interpret the effects of lower water temperature on sediment carrying capacity and flood routing. Seasonal variations in water temperature and the underlying effects of water temperature occur in rivers worldwide, which implies the need to pay more attention to this aspect in river management strategies.

VARIATIONS OF δ18О AND δ2H VALUES OF PRECIPITATION IN MOSCOW FROM 2017 TO 2019

To reveal variations in the iso topic composition of O and H in the atmospheric precipitation in Moscow and the processes influencing the isotope composition, all events of precipitation in 2017-2019 were sampled at the Meteorological Observatory of the Moscow State University: 158 samples in 2017, 119 samples in 2018 and 143 samples in 2019. The study is a prolongation of continuous measurements of the isotope composition of precipitation, started by authors in 2014. The study of the isotope composition of precipitation at the MSU Meteorological Observatory was supported by the IAEA and became a part of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) database. It has been found that the intra-annual variability of the isotop e composition of precipitation has a pronounced seasonality. The most isotopically heavy precipitation falls from May to August, and the most isotop ically light precipitation at December-February, mainly due to seasonal air temperature variations. The ratio of the average monthly δ18O values in precipitation and air temperature for the study period varied from 0.34 to 0.39‰/°C, which is consistent with the previously obtained data for precipitation in Moscow. The δ2H-δ18O ratio in precipitation was clos e to that of the Global Meteoric Water Line, pointing to the equilibrium conditions during precipitation formation. It was established that in the summer months isotopic composition is significantly influenced by undercloud evaporation. The deuterium excess va lues in precipitation are not markedly seasonal; however, lower dexc values (below the 3-year average of 11‰) are typical for the summer months (July-August). It is most likely due to undercloud evaporation in conditions of low relative humidity and high air temperatures. Higher dexc values (above 11‰) prevailed from October to April.

Temporal Variations in Plankton Communities and Environmental Factors in the Shipra, a Central Himalayan Tributary of the Kosi River in Uttarakhand, India.

The essential role of smaller streams and tributaries indigenous to the area is crucial in revitalizing and restoring the main river system. The present study unraveled the relationship between plankton communities and environmental variables in the Shipra River, a Central Himalayan tributary of the Kosi River in Uttarakhand, India. Plankton distribution, abundance, and presence were investigated at four locations: upstream (S1 and S2) and downstream (S3 and S4). Forty-eight genera of phytoplankton and zooplankton have been identified belonging to ten classes (Bacillariophyceae, Chlorophyceae, Zygnematophyceae, Cyanophyceae, Euglenopyceae, Protozoa, Rotifers, Copepoda, Cladocera, and Insecta) based on the findings. Winter was dominated by phytoplankton (Navicula spp., Nitzchia spp., Diatom spp.); summer and monsoon by zooplankton (Daphnia spp., Cyclops spp., Keratella spp., Brachionus spp.). Plankton communities of the tributary were assessed using diversity indices (Shannon-Weiner's index (H), Simpson's diversity index (1-D), and Evenness Index (E)). Seasonal variations in water temperature, specific conductivity, total dissolved solids, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, and ammonium ions were found to be statistically significant (p<0.05). Canonical Correspondence Analysis, K-dominance plots, cluster analysis, and NMDS analysis showed the dynamic nature of the plankton communities with seasonal physiochemical variations in the unexplored Himalayan tributary. The plankton communities exhibited significant temporal fluctuations with physicochemical factors.

Application of wetPf2 Data for Investigating Characteristics of Temperature and Humidity of Air Masses over Paracel and Spratly Islands

This article uses data from the second-generation Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC-2) satellites (wetPf2) to study the temperature and humidity properties of the air masses over Paracel and Spratly Islands in the Vietnam East Sea (South China Sea). The satellite observational data were validated with the radiosonde data from three stations in Vietnam: Hanoi, Danang, and Ho Chi Minh City. Subsequently, the wetPf2 data are used to analyze the characteristics of temperature and relative humidity variations of the air masses over the Paracel and Spratly regions. Results show that the mean error of the satellite observational data for temperature ranges from −0.06°C to −0.02°C, with standard deviations ranging from 0.73°C to 1.04°C. The mean error of relative humidity fluctuates between 11.6% and 12.5%, with standard deviations ranging from 15.1% to 19.1%. The values are reasonable and comparable to those in previous studies. Seasonal variations of temperature and humidity show that the air mass over the Paracel Islands exhibits a larger annual temperature with an annual variation of approximately 5.0°C, significantly higher than the value of 2.2°C in the air mass over the Spratly Islands. The difference may be due to the greater influence of continental and seasonal wind systems in the northern region. Within both air masses, the annual temperature variation in the boundary layer is much larger than that in the free atmosphere. Annual relative humidity variation is higher in summer and autumn than in winter and spring. The significant changes in the relative humidity with height during winter and no significant change of the relative humidity with height during summer may be related to the important role of strong convective activity carrying moist air upward to higher atmospheric levels during the summer time.

Links between seasonal suprapermafrost groundwater, the hydrothermal change of the active layer, and river runoff in alpine permafrost watersheds

Abstract. The seasonal dynamic of the suprapermafrost groundwater significantly affects the runoff generation and confluence in permafrost basins and is a leading issue that must urgently be addressed in hydrological research in cold and alpine regions. In this study, the seasonal dynamic process of the suprapermafrost groundwater level (SGL), vertical gradient changes of soil temperature (ST), moisture content in the active layer (AL), and river level changes were analyzed at four permafrost watersheds in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau using comparative analysis and the nonlinear correlation evaluation method. The impact of freeze–thaw processes on seasonal SGL and the links between SGL and surface runoff were also investigated. The SGL process in a hydrological year can be divided into four periods: (A) a rapid falling period (October to mid-November), (B) a stable low-water period (late November to May), (C) a rapid rising period (approximately June), and (D) a stable high-water period (July to September), which synchronously respond to seasonal variations in soil moisture and temperature in the AL. The characteristics and causes of SGL changes significantly varied during these four periods. The freeze–thaw process of the AL regulated SGL and surface runoff in permafrost watersheds. During period A, with rapid AL freezing, the ST had a dominant impact on the SGL. In period B, the AL was entirely frozen due to the stably low ST, while the SGL dropped to the lowest level with small changes. During period C, ST in the deep soil layers of AL (below 50 cm depth) significantly impacted the SGL (nonlinear correlation coefficient R2 &gt; 0.74, P &lt; 0.05), whereas the SGL change in the shallow soil layer (0–50 cm depth) showed a closer association with soil moisture content. Rainfall was the major cause for the stable high SGL during period D. In addition, the SGLs in periods C and D were closely linked to the retreat and flood processes of river runoff. The SGL contributed approximately 57.0 %–65.8 % of the river runoff changes in the period D. These findings will help to facilitate future hydrological research in the permafrost basins and the development and utilization of water resources in cold and alpine regions.

Trends and drivers of CO2 parameters, from 2006 to 2021, at a time-series station in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic (6°S, 10°W)

The seawater fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) has been monitored hourly at an instrumented mooring at 6°S, 10°W since 2006. The mooring is located in the South Equatorial Current and is affected by the equatorial Atlantic cold tongue. This site is characterized by large seasonal sea surface temperature variations (&amp;gt;4°C). The fCO2 is measured by a spectrophotometric sensor deployed at about 1.5 meters deep. Measurements of seawater fCO2, sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) are used to calculate total dissolved inorganic carbon (TCO2) and pH. Total alkalinity (TA) is calculated using an empirical relationship with SSS determined for this region. Satellite chlorophyll-a concentrations at 6°S, 10°W are low (&amp;lt;0.2 mg m-3) but some peaks over 0.8 mg m-3 are sometimes detected in August. Nevertheless, the site is a permanent source of CO2 to the atmosphere, averaging 4.7 ± 2.4 mmol m-2d-1 over 2006-2021. Despite the weakening of the wind, the CO2 flux increases significantly by 0.20 ± 0.05 mmol m-2d-1 yr-1. This suggests that the source of CO2 is increasing in this region. This is explained by seawater fCO2 increasing faster than the atmospheric increase during 2006-2021. Most of the seawater fCO2 increase is driven by the increase of TCO2, followed by SST. The fCO2 increase leads to a pH decrease of -0.0030 ± 0.0004 yr-1. The SST anomalies (SSTA) at 6°S, 10°W are correlated to the Tropical Southern Atlantic (TSA) index and to the Atlantic 3 region (ATL3) index with a correlation coefficient higher than 0.75. The strong positive phase of both ATL3 and TSA, observed towards the end of the time-series, is likely contributing to the strong increase of seawater fCO2.

Potential Distribution Projections for Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton under Climate Change Scenarios

The gum acacia Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton (Fabales: Fabaceae) is a drought-tolerant plant belonging to the genus Acacia of the Leguminosae family, possessing significant economic and ecological value. Despite its importance, there is a knowledge gap regarding the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of S. senegal, crucial for the conservation of plant resources and optimizing its use in introductory silviculture. In this study, we selected 23 environmental variables and utilized the optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to analyze the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of S. senegal worldwide and simulate the current and future distribution range of S. senegal in Pakistan under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios. The results highlight key environmental factors influencing the distribution of S. senegal, including BIO3 (isothermally), BIO4 (coefficient of seasonal variation of temperature), BIO11 (mean temperature of the coldest season), and BIO12 (annual precipitation). Regions with higher and less fluctuating temperatures exhibit a higher potential for S. senegal distribution. Currently, suitable habitats of S. senegal are concentrated in the southern region of Pakistan, covering provinces such as Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan, with highly suitable habitats accounting for 6.06% of the total area. Under the current climatic conditions, this study identifies the spatial patterns of suitable habitats and their concentration in specific regions. With climate change, a notable expansion of suitable habitats towards higher latitudes is observed, with the most significant expansion under the extremely severe climate change scenario (SSP5-8.5), reaching 223.45% of the current level. The results of this study enhance our understanding of the dynamics of S. senegal distribution under climate change and offer valuable insights into the long-term introduction of S. senegal for afforestation and soil conservation in Pakistan. This study provides theoretical support for the sustainable development of the local ecosystem and socio-economy, emphasizing the importance of proactive measures to adapt to changing climatic conditions.