Seasonal River Discharge Research Articles

Transboundary Nile basin dynamics: Land use change, drivers, and hydrological impacts under socioeconomic pathways

Landscape transitions in the Nile River basin will likely accelerate over the next decades due to socioeconomic developments and climate change. However, the assessments of land use/land cover (LULC) changes and their impact on the water resources over the Nile basin lacked a transboundary perspective. Here we used coupled basin-scale geospatial-hydrological models to project future LULC changes in the Nile basin and its three tributaries (i.e., White Nile, Blue Nile, and Atbara River), explored their drivers and projected hydrological impacts under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) during 2020–2060. Compared to 1992–2019, significant increases in the forested area (>50 × 103 km2) are expected to occur in the upstream areas of the White Nile and the Blue Nile in South Sudan and Ethiopia, with larger increases projected under higher emission scenarios. Consequently, it will likely reduce the downstream seasonal river discharge for the White and Blue Nile by up to 8.4% (SSP5) and 8.9% (SSP2), respectively. An increase of 7.4% in the Blue Nile discharge is expected during the flood season if the current urbanization/deforestation rates would prevail in the future. Large decreases (>15 × 103 km2) of unused land are expected in the Atbara River sub-catchment with increases in natural vegetation socioeconomic-related LULC types, leading to a river flow decrease of 15% during the rainy season under the SSPs. The basin-scale LULC changes are projected to decrease the Main Nile flow to Egypt by 3.6% under SSPs and increase by 2.1% if the historical trends prevail. The results highlight a close association between landscape dynamics, socioeconomic growth, and climate change over the Nile basin and suggest adaptive LULC planning and conservation measures.

Fluvial character and architecture of an outcrop using sedimentology combined with UAV-based modeling, Cretaceous McMurray Formation, NE Alberta, Canada

ABSTRACT It is widely accepted that most occurrences of inclined heterolithic stratification (IHS) in the rock record form by laterally accreting point bars in freshwater fluvial, tidally influenced fluvial, or tidally dominated estuary channels. Despite the widespread distribution of IHS in the subsurface and outcropping strata of the lower Cretaceous McMurray Formation, the large-scale depositional architecture and lateral facies variability of these deposits remains controversial. The relatively limited lateral extent of many of the outcrops is a challenge, particularly when point-bar deposits on the scale of hundreds of meters to kilometers are interpreted in outcrops spanning anywhere from 100 to 300 meters laterally. This has in turn led researchers to leverage other datasets such as 3-D seismic to analyze the large-scale depositional architecture of the IHS, leading to two main interpretations for the IHS in the McMurray Formation: 1) a fluvially dominated environment owing to geomorphological features comparable to those in large modern fluvial systems, or 2) an estuarine environment owing to the presence of trace fossils characteristic of marine-derived faunal colonization in brackish-water settings and strong evidence of tidal modulation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the sedimentology and depositional architecture of IHS in a unique, kilometer-wide outcrop exposure of McMurray Formation strata and compare it to IHS observed at other McMurray Formation outcrops previously interpreted as estuarine channels. This is achieved by combining traditional field-based methods with Unmanned Aerial Vehicle-based outcrop modeling to create a 3-D outcrop model to visualize and analyze large point-bar geobodies deposited in a channel upwards of 25 meters deep and 750 meters wide exposed in outcrop at Crooked Rapids of the Athabasca River, west of the City of Fort McMurray. Importantly, this methodology uses bed orientation trends, paleocurrent data, and sedimentological observations to identify and map architectural elements, which constitute an eastward-accreting point bar crosscut by a southwestward-accreting counter point bar in the outcrop. The results strongly suggest that the IHS at Crooked Rapids was deposited in a freshwater fluvial environment. When compared to IHS deposited in estuarine depositional environments, fluvial IHS is driven by seasonal river discharge as opposed to the interplay between river discharge and the extent of the tidal prism. Therefore, fluvial IHS is: 1) dominantly sandstone with very minor waning-flow siltstone interbeds resulting from erosion by the succeeding freshet phase, and 2) completely devoid of bioturbation until flat-lying bar top or overbank strata is encountered. Using 3-D outcrop modeling to supplement sedimentological and ichnological observations strengthens the interpretation of complex fluvial geobodies and increases the overall understanding of the large-scale depositional architecture of point bars across the tidal–fluvial transition zone.

Spatial and temporal variabilities of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients in the Ca River basin, North Central Vietnam

Abstract The Ca River basin has an area of 27,200 km2 distributed across the territories of two countries: Vietnam (65.2%) and Lao (34.8%). Spatial and temporal variations in suspended sediment (SS) and dissolved nutrients (PO43-, NO3-, SiO2) were determined in two hydrological stations located along the Ca River 4–6 times per month in the rainy season and 1–4 times per month in the dry season, between the months of August 2017 and July 2018. A loading–discharge (L–Q) curve was used to analyze the correlation among water physicochemical parameters with seasonal river discharge. The results indicate that SS was higher in upstream flows compared to downstream flows, which is primarily due to erosion. Seasonal SS and dissolved phosphate have an inverse correlation trend to that of dissolved silica. Results revealed that the concentration of phosphate and SS was higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. This finding proves that rain washes particulate matter from the surface runoff into the Ca River. Significant correlations between discharge and dissolved nutrient load were observed. This study provides useful information regarding variations of SS and water physicochemical parameters with seasonal water discharge in the Ca River.

Arctic biogeochemical and optical properties of dissolved organic matter across river to sea gradients

Arctic landscapes are warming and becoming wetter due to changes in precipitation and the timing of snowmelt which consequently alters seasonal runoff and river discharge patterns. These changes in hydrology lead to increased mobilization and transport of terrestrial dissolved organic matter (DOM) to Arctic coastal seas where significant impacts on biogeochemical cycling can occur. Here, we present measurements of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chromophoric DOM (CDOM) in the Yukon River-to-Bering Sea system and two river plumes on the Alaska North Slope which flow into the Beaufort Sea. Our sampling characterized optical and biogeochemical properties of DOM during high and low river discharge periods for the Yukon River-Bering Sea system. The average DOC concentration at the multiple Yukon River mouths ranged from a high of 10.36 mg C L-1 during the ascending limb of the 2019 freshet (late May), 6.4 mg C L-1 during the descending limb of the 2019 freshet (late June), and a low of 3.86 mg C L-1 during low river discharge in August 2018. CDOM absorption coefficient at 412 nm (aCDOM(412)) averaged 8.23 m-1, 5.07 m-1, and 1.9 m-1, respectively. Several approaches to model DOC concentration based on its relationship with CDOM properties demonstrated cross-system seasonal and spatial robustness for these Arctic coastal systems despite spanning an order of magnitude decrease in DOC concentration from the lower Yukon River to the Northern Bering Sea as well as the North Slope systems. “Snapshot” fluxes of DOC and CDOM across the Yukon River Delta to Norton Sound were calculated from our measurements and modeled water fluxes forced with upstream USGS river gauge data. Our findings suggest that during high river flow, DOM reaches the delta largely unaltered by inputs or physical and biogeochemical processing and that the transformations of Yukon River DOM largely occur in the plume. However, during low summer discharge, multiple processes including local precipitation events, microbial decomposition, photochemistry, and likely others can alter the DOM properties within the lower Yukon River and Delta prior to flowing into Norton Sound.

Long-term morphological evolution and its mechanism of Lingdingyang Estuary: Interferences from anthropogenic forcings

The long-term morphological evolution process and mechanism of estuaries driven by high-intensity human activities are a hot and frontier scientific issue in estuarine and coastal research. Lingdingyang Estuary (LE) has been disturbed in recent decades by high-intensity anthropogenic forcing. High-intensity human activities have played a major role in the dynamic and geomorphological evolution of the LE, predominantly over the long term. In this study, the morphological evolution pattern of LE from 1955 to 1998 was first simulated using the Telemac-2D long-term morphological evolution model, and the input reduction of the upstream river boundaries was discussed. Then, based on the long-term model, the contribution of different human activities on geomorphic evolution was identified. Finally, the mechanism of high-intensity reclamation on morphological evolution was analyzed. The main findings can be summarized as follows: i) the general geomorphic pattern of LE at the mouth bars and channels are represented reasonably well from 1955 to 1998 when the multiple river boundaries input are reduced to combined seasonal river discharge and the phased daily SSC. Ii) High-intensity reclamation significantly weakened the deposition of ILE (Inner-Lingdingyang Estuary) with the annual deposition volume decreased ~1.33 × 107 m3, resulting in the deposition area narrowing 6–8 km to the south. On the contrary, reclamation enhanced the deposition of OLE (Outer-Lingdingyang Estuary) with the annual deposition volume increased ~5.15 × 106 m3, which enlarged the deposition area. Iii) the sharp decline of sediment discharge in upstream decreased significantly the deposition from 1978 to 1998 with the annual net deposition volume decreased ~1.754 × 107 m3, and the total deposition area of LE narrowed significantly and moved 3–5 km upstream. Iv) the total annual net deposition volume of LE from 1978 to 1998 decreased obviously by 2.084 × 107 m3 under the combined impact of the sharp decline of sediment discharge in upstream and high-intensity reclamation, of which the contribution rate of the sharp decline of sediment discharge in upstream was 61%, and that of high-intensity reclamation was 16% for the whole LE. v) the equilibrium location between runoff and tide caused by high-intensity reclamation moved 4.4 km southward from 1978 to 1998, which was the dominant factor for driving the southward migration of the deposition area during this period. In addition, reclamation resulted in the changes of water surface slope and tidal dynamics, which significantly affected the local geomorphic evolution pattern. The results of this study can improve and enrich the methods of the reduction of river boundary in upstream for long-term geomorphic evolution, and provide reference for the long-term geomorphic simulation of other multi-input estuaries. Our findings are expected to improve the scientific comprehensive management of the Pearl River Estuary and guide the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Long-term morphological modeling and implication for estuarine regulation of the Modaomen Estuary, Pearl River Delta, China

The morphological evolution of estuarine areas occurs at multiple time scales. The Modaomen Estuary (ME) in Pearl River Delta (PRD), China, is one of the main outlets of freshwater and sediment into the South China Sea. A long-term morphodynamic model based on TELEMAC numerical modeling system was applied to the ME to explore input reduction of the river boundary condition, discuss the effect of wave, and analyze the classification of the ME and its long-term morphodynamic equilibrium.Four input reduction scenarios were tested in the model: annual average runoff discharge, bed formation discharge, hourly water levels in a representative year, and combined seasonal discharge (flood season, intermediate season and dry season). The model results show that the general patterns of erosion and deposition at the mouth bar and channels are represented reasonably well when combined seasonal river discharge is used. Sediment was silted onto the external slope of the central mouth bar due to runoff, and was transported landward and westward under the effect of waves. Based on the modeled long-term morphological evolution results, the general morphological pattern can be reproduced under the control of runoff and tides without considering the effect of waves, showing that classification of the ME is runoff dominant. At the seasonal scale, morphology is adjusted through silting in the flood and intermediate seasons and scouring in the dry season. At the interannual scale, from 1994 to 2017, the net volume changes decreased gradually, indicating that erosion and deposition tend to be balanced in the ME. The results of this study provide a valuable basis for long-term modeling and estuarine regulation.

Spatio-Temporal Variation of Synechococcus Assemblages at DNA and cDNA Levels in the Tropical Estuarine and Coastal Waters.

Synechococcus is a major contributor to global marine primary production. Here, its spatio-temporal variations in abundance and phylogenetic structure were studied at three stations of the South China Sea at both DNA and cDNA levels. Synechococcus cell abundance was lowest in March, but highest in October at two coastal stations. Its abundance was higher at the estuarine station, which reached a peak value of 1.36 × 105 cells/ml in April, owing to the nitrogen nutrients discharged from the Sanya River. Gene and gene transcript abundances of four Synechococcus lineages, clades II, III, VIII, and S5.3, were studied by quantitative PCR, which showed that clade II was the most abundant lineage at both DNA and cDNA levels. High-throughput sequencing revealed that, at the DNA level, Synechococcus assemblage was dominated by clade SY4 (a novel clade defined in this study), S5.2, and clade II in the coastal waters and was dominated by freshwater/S5.2 Synechococcus, reaching a value up to 88.61% in June, in estuarine waters. Changes in salinity and nutrient concentration caused by seasonal monsoonal forcing and river discharge were the key determinants of the spatio-temporal variation in Synechococcus assemblages at the DNA level. In comparison, high dissimilation among samples at the same stations and in the same seasons leads to the imperceptible spatio-temporal variation pattern of Synechococcus assemblages at the cDNA level. Furthermore, co-occurrence networks disclosed that Synechococcus community had closer and more complex internal interactions at the cDNA level. These discrepancies highlighted the necessity to study Synechococcus assemblages at both DNA and cDNA levels.

Diagnostic evaluation of river discharge into the Arctic Ocean and its impact on oceanic volume transports

Abstract. This study analyses river discharge into the Arctic Ocean using state-of-the-art reanalyses such as the fifth-generation European Reanalysis (ERA5) and the reanalysis component from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). GloFAS, in its operational version 2.1, combines the land surface model (Hydrology Tiled European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – ECMWF – Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land, HTESSEL) from ECMWF’s ERA5 with a hydrological and channel routing model (LISFLOOD). Furthermore, we analyse GloFAS' most recent version 3.1, which is not coupled to HTESSEL but uses the full configuration of LISFLOOD. Seasonal cycles as well as annual runoff trends are analysed for the major Arctic watersheds – Yenisei, Ob, Lena, and Mackenzie – where reanalysis-based runoff can be compared to available observed river discharge records. Furthermore, we calculate river discharge over the whole pan-Arctic region and, by combination with atmospheric inputs, storage changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and oceanic volume transports from ocean reanalyses, we assess closure of the non-steric water volume budget. Finally, we provide best estimates for every budget equation term using a variational adjustment scheme. Runoff from ERA5 and GloFAS v2.1 features pronounced declining trends induced by two temporal inhomogeneities in ERA5's data assimilation system, and seasonal river discharge peaks are underestimated by up to 50 % compared to observations. The new GloFAS v3.1 product exhibits distinct improvements and performs best in terms of seasonality and long-term means; however, in contrast to gauge observations, it also features declining runoff trends. Calculating runoff indirectly through the divergence of moisture flux is the only reanalysis-based estimate that is able to reproduce the river discharge increases measured by gauge observations (pan-Arctic increase of 2 % per decade). In addition, we examine Greenlandic discharge, which contributes about 10 % of the total pan-Arctic discharge and features strong increases mainly due to glacial melting. The variational adjustment yields reliable estimates of the volume budget terms on an annual scale, requiring only moderate adjustments of less than 3 % for each individual term. Approximately 6583±84 km3 of freshwater leaves the Arctic Ocean per year through its boundaries. About two-thirds of this is contributed by runoff from the surrounding land areas to the Arctic Ocean (4379±25 km3 yr−1), and about one-third is supplied by the atmosphere. However, on a seasonal scale budget residuals of some calendar months were too large to be eliminated within the a priori spreads of the individual terms. This suggests that systematical errors are present in the reanalyses and ocean reanalysis data sets, which are not considered in our uncertainty estimation.

Hydrodynamic and Sediment Transport Patterns in the Minho and Douro Estuaries (NW Portugal) Based on ADCP Monitoring Data: Part 2—Statistical Interpretation of Bottom Moored Datasets

Exploratory statistical partitioning methods (K-means Clustering analysis) were applied to ADCP monitoring datasets collected inside the Douro and Minho estuaries. This analysis is aimed to discriminate ADCP acoustic responses according to the variations of the suspended particles within the ensonified medium. Based on the interpretation of the results, this work establishes general sediment transport patterns at both estuaries’ exits under continuously varying river flows and tidal amplitudes recorded during a summer dry seasonal scenario (September 2005) and winter high river discharge (January/February 2007) conditions. Results confirm the already known present scarcity of (sandy) sediment export from the Douro and Minho estuaries into the inner shelf and the consequent sediment depletion of the adjacent littoral, with no effective contribution of the Douro and some evidence of sand export observed at the Minho outlet during the winter of 2007.

Quantitative Biofacies Analysis to Identify Relationships and Refine Controls on Paleosol Development, Prince Creek Formation, North Slope Alaska, USA

Late Cretaceous coastal plain deposits of the Prince Creek Formation (PCF) offer a rare glimpse into an ancient, high-latitude, arctic greenhouse ecosystem for which there is no modern analog. Here, we employ quantitative biofacies analysis to explore the spatio-temporal variability in PCF palynomorph and microbiota assemblages from nine paleosol horizons exposed along the Colville River, North Slope, Alaska. Biofacies results provide insight into paleoenvironmental controls on the coastal plain ecosystem. Cluster and ordination analyses recognize five biofacies and the following two assemblage types: (1) fern and moss dominated assemblages and (2) algae dominated assemblages. Ordination arrays biofacies along environmental gradients related to soil moisture and marine influence. Fern and moss dominated biofacies from regularly water-logged paleosols along lake and swamp margins on the lower delta plain clearly segregated from algae dominated assemblages of periodically drier levee-overbank paleosols. These results support previous interpretations from the sedimentology, paleopedology, and geochemistry of PCF paleosols that suggest that fluctuations in the water table, related to seasonal river discharge and variations in topography and drainage, controlled soil development and vegetation growth across the coastal plain. This quantitative biofacies-based approach provides an independent predictive tool and cross-check for interpreting environmental conditions along any ancient coastal ecosystem.

Using Nd[sbnd]Sr isotopes in suspended sediments in the Abrolhos coral-reef (SW Atlantic, Brazil) to assess potential contamination from the 2015 Fundão dam collapse

The Abrolhos bank is home of the richest coral reef system of the Southwestern Atlantic, where endemic coral species are found. It has been reported that Abrolhos' corals are under intense stress due to increasing of Marine Heat Waves during the last decades. Additionally, anthropic interventions along the adjacent coastal regions are a factor of concern since they contribute to the increase in the sediment load and to organic debris input in the reef domain. In November 2015, the collapse of the Fundão mining tailings dam resulted in the release of approximately 50 million m3 of iron oxide and quartz-rich slurry into the Doce River. Aiming at using a fingerprint of the tailings and to assess the presence of traces of the Fundão dam material from this event on the Abrolhos bank, this work presents new 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd isotope ratios of marine suspended sediment samples collected between 2016 and 2020 from a network of sediment traps throughout the reef and complementary suspended material at sea. In parallel, we monitored meteo-oceanographic parameters and modeled surface marine currents as an attempt to identify the sediment transport between the Doce River mouth and Abrolhos bank. The r isotopes were used as provenance proxies based on the fact that minerals and rocks tend to have specific isotopic signatures reflecting their own geological derivation. In this context, the isotopic ratios of various potential regional sources for the sedimentation in Abrolhos bank were evaluated. Our monitoring and isotopic measurements indicate that Doce River signatures are detected at Abrolhos bank, following the seasonal Doce River discharge at sea. Isotopic signature of Doce River at Abrolhos bank was also observed during the austral winter (July–August) when cold fronts migrate at the Brazilian coast with higher frequency and energy.

Smart Climate Hydropower Tool: A Machine-Learning Seasonal Forecasting Climate Service to Support Cost–Benefit Analysis of Reservoir Management

This study proposes a climate service named Smart Climate Hydropower Tool (SCHT) and designed as a hybrid forecast system for supporting decision-making in a context of hydropower production. SCHT is technically designed to make use of information from state-of-art seasonal forecasts provided by the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) combined with a range of different machine learning algorithms to perform the seasonal forecast of the accumulated inflow discharges to the reservoir of hydropower plants. The machine learning algorithms considered include support vector regression, Gaussian processes, long short-term memory, non-linear autoregressive neural networks with exogenous inputs, and a deep-learning neural networks model. Each machine learning model is trained over past decades datasets of recorded data, and forecast performances are validated and evaluated using separate test sets with reference to the historical average of discharge values and simpler multiparametric regressions. Final results are presented to the users through a user-friendly web interface developed from a tied connection with end-users in an effective co-design process. Methods are tested for forecasting the accumulated seasonal river discharges up to six months in advance for two catchments in Colombia, South America. Results indicate that the machine learning algorithms that make use of a complex and/or recurrent architecture can better simulate the temporal dynamic behaviour of the accumulated river discharge inflow to both case study reservoirs, thus rendering SCHT a useful tool in providing information for water resource managers in better planning the allocation of water resources for different users and for hydropower plant managers when negotiating power purchase contracts in competitive energy markets.

Influence of Seasonal River Discharge on Tidal Propagation in the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna Delta, Bangladesh

AbstractSignificant research efforts have been devoted to understanding river‐tide interactions in estuaries. However, studies on the impact of monsoon‐driven fluctuations of river discharge are limited. Here, the role of varying river discharge on the tidal propagation and tidal limit along the Ganges‐Brahmaputra‐Meghna Delta (GBMD), a macrotidal estuary subject to seasonal and annual river discharge variations, is investigated. The Delft3D hydrodynamic model is validated and applied to an average flood year condition and nine idealized scenarios covering the typical hydrological conditions. Results reveal that the upper limit of the tidal propagation shifts 75 km upstream during the dry season. The residual water level slope and tidal damping rate increase with river discharge beyond 100 km from the estuary mouth. The balance between the generation and dissipation of quarterdiurnal tides shifts spatially as a result of changes in channel convergence and friction and temporally as a function of river discharge, which controls the total friction in the upper tidal river. The balance between tidal dissipation and generation depends on the residual velocity generated by river discharge and the velocity of the principal tides. The maximal generation of quarterdiurnal tides in the upper GBMD depends on the friction generated from the river‐tide interaction. Critical river discharge thresholds produce an optimal condition of dissipation of semidiurnal tides and generation of quarterdiurnal tides through friction at the upper and middle estuary. River discharge above the critical river discharge amount more rapidly dissipates both semidiurnal and quarterdiurnal tides than generates quarterdiurnal tides from nonlinear interactions.

Physical drivers facilitating a toxigenic cyanobacterial bloom in a major Great Lakes tributary.

The Maumee River is the primary source for nutrients fueling seasonal Microcystis-dominated blooms in western Lake Erie's open waters though such blooms in the river are infrequent. The river also serves as source water for multiple public water systems and a large food services facility in northwest Ohio, USA. On 20 September 2017, an unprecedented bloom was reported in the Maumee River estuary within the Toledo metropolitan area, which triggered a recreational water advisory. Here we (1) explore physical drivers likely contributing to the bloom's occurrence, and (2) describe the toxin concentration and bacterioplankton taxonomic composition. A historical analysis using ten-years of seasonal river discharge, water level, and local wind data identified two instances when high-retention conditions occurred over ≥10 days in the Maumee River estuary: in 2016 and during the 2017 bloom. Observation by remote sensing imagery supported the advection of cyanobacterial cells into the estuary from the lake during 2017 and the lack of an estuary bloom in 2016 due to a weak cyanobacterial bloom in the lake. A rapid-response survey during the 2017 bloom determined levels of the cyanotoxins, specifically microcystins, in excess of recreational contact limits at sites within the lower 20 km of the river while amplicon sequencing found these sites were dominated by Microcystis. These results highlight the need to broaden our understanding of physical drivers of cyanobacterial blooms within the interface between riverine and lacustrine systems, particularly as such blooms are expected to become more prominent in response to a changing climate.

Dynamics of the Estuarine Turbidity Maximum Zone from Landsat-8 Data: The Case of the Maroni River Estuary, French Guiana

The estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) zone occurs in river estuaries due to the effects of tidal dynamics, density-driven residual circulation and deposition/erosion of fine sediments. Even though tropical river estuaries contribute proportionally more to the sediment supply of coastal areas, the ETM in them has been hardly studied. In this study, surface suspended particulate matter (SPM) determined from OLI (Operational Land Imager)-Landsat 8images was used to gain a better understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the ETM of the tropical Maroni estuary (located on the Guianas coast, South America). A method to estimate the remotely-sensed ETM location and its spatiotemporal evolution between 2013 and 2019 was developed. Each ETM was defined from an envelope of normalized SPM values > 0.6 calculated from images of the estuary. The results show the influence of the well-marked seasonal river discharge and of tides, especially during the dry season. The ETM is located in the middle estuary during low river-flow conditions, whereas it shifts towards the mouth during high river flow. Neap–spring tidal cycles result in a push of the ETM closer to the mouth under spring-tide conditions or even outside the mouth during the rainy season. An increase in SPM, especially since 2017, coincident with an extension of the ETM, is shown to reflect the periodic influence of mud banks originating from the mouth of the Amazon and migrating along the coast towards the Orinoco (Venezuela). These results demonstrate the advantages of ocean color data in an exploratory study of the spatio-temporal dynamics of the ETM of a tropical estuary, such as that of the Maroni.

Uncertainties in river discharge simulations of the upper Indus basin in the Western Himalayas

This study focuses on understanding and quantifying uncertainties in simulating river discharge in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of the Western Himalayas using a macro-scale semi-distributed hydrology model forced with multiple observed precipitation datasets and reanalysis products of near-surface wind-speed, maximum and minimum temperature during 2010–2012. We performed a suite of numerical simulations using a high-resolution setup of the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrology model for the UIB. This model takes into account the balance of both water and surface energy budgets within each grid cell and incorporates sub-grid variability of topography to represent the effects of orographic precipitation and temperature lapse rate essential for hydrological modelling in the complex Himalayan terrain. While river discharges over non-mountainous basins are known to be generally sensitive to precipitation variations, it is noted that both precipitation and snowmelt processes critically influence seasonal river discharge in the UIB during the northern summer through surface temperature and wind-speed variations. Our study found that a marginal difference in temperature forcing can create large difference in snowmelt over UIB during summer season, which in turn increases the uncertainty in the summer monsoon river discharge. This analysis highlights the equally important need for the incorporation of realistic temperature data as that of precipitation product for the better simulation of land surface processes during various seasons, especially during summer, over snow covered UIB. Further analysis of daily simulations of the VIC model during 2010–2012 indicates that low and medium intensity river discharges tend to be associated with relatively lower spread among the ensemble members, as compared to the high intensity discharges which exhibit large ensemble spread. In particular, we noted a large increase in the spread of high flow simulations over the UIB during the flood episodes in the summer of 2010, arising from uncertainties in the precipitation forcing across multiple datasets. Our results emphasize the need for improved representation of precipitation and hydrological processes over the Himalayan region in weather and climate models for better management of water resources and flood forecasting in the UIB region under a changing climate.

Quantification and uncertainty of the impact of climate change on river discharge and sediment yield in the Dehbar river basin in Iran

The purpose of this study is to identify future changes in weather variables (precipitation and temperature) due to climate change using different general circulation models (GCMs) for different emission scenarios, so as to assess the impact of climate change on river discharge and sediment yield in the Dehbar river basin in Iran. The magnitude and uncertainty of the impact of climate change on river discharge and sediment yield in the Dehbar river basin in Iran is quantified using a calibrated and validated SWAT model with future weather inputs generated using the LARS-WG6 program to downscale the output of five large-scale GCMs for three possible emission scenarios (RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85) and the period 2021–2040. Annual maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 22–28% and 65–84%, respectively, with a 1-month shift in temperature peak. The future rainfall amounts show both increasing (fall and winter) and decreasing (spring and summer) trends. Future temperature and rainfall patterns are predicted to cause the largest flows to occur a month earlier (February instead of March), an increase in discharge in the “wet” months of fall and winter (up to 137%) and a decrease in the “dry” months of spring and summer (down to − 100%). Sediment yield, which is caused by runoff (also controlling river discharge), has a similar projected trend, with a general decrease in spring and summer (down to − 95%) and an increase in fall and winter (up to 340%). The coefficient of variation of the future monthly, seasonal and annual river discharges and sediment yields are relatively low, revealing a general agreement in projections among the different GCM and RCP scenarios considered. This study highlights the significant negative impact of climate change on the Dehbar river basin, with amplification of river flows and sediment concentrations in the wet season and increased water scarcity in the dry season. Both effects may adversely impact the region’s livelihood (cultivation, fish farming) and land resources.

Seasonal spreading and transport of buoyant plumes in the shelf off Kochi, South west coast of India- A modeling approach

We investigated the seasonal spreading and transport of buoyant plume in the shelf off Kochi using Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). The modelled river plume typically consisted of an offshore bulge and a coastal current. The spreading of the bulge extended up to a distance of 19 km from inlet during the summer monsoon to <10 km in the spring inter-monsoon. The Kelvin number varied between 0.1 and 0.9 which revealed that the plume exhibited both the features of small and large scale plumes, resulting in a highly complicated plume pattern. During the southwest monsoon the plume fringe twisted towards the south, while during the northeast monsoon it twisted towards north according to the reversal of monsoonal winds. The fresh water transport with respect to coastal currents varied in accordance with seasonal river discharge such that the value peaked in the wet season and dropped in the dry season. During the non-realistic (no wind) condition the plume initiated barotropic and baroclinic flow, after which it was acted upon by earth’s rotation so that the plume propagated in the direction of Coriolis force (towards north), as geostrophic currents. The model run ‘with wind’ and ‘without wind’ condition revealed that in the shelf off Kochi the plume is transported in accordance with monsoonal winds/currents by nullifying the effect of earth’s rotation. The categorization of plume influenced area and realization of the direction of plume transport can be used for interpreting the dynamically and potentially active zones in the shelf off Kochi.

Discharge responses associated with rapid snow cover ablation events in the Susquehanna and Wabash River basins

ABSTRACTIn the mid-latitudes, snow plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate, with snow ablation variability in ephemeral regions representing an area of essential research. Due to a lack of historical snow-water-equivalent data in the eastern United States, recent research has substituted daily snow depth changes for ablation. These studies, however, do not explicitly examine if such a substitution yields a snowmelt hydrological signal, an important component of water resource management. As such, this study evaluates if ablation events, as defined as a daily snow depth decrease, subsequently result in increased river discharge within two similarly sized watersheds in the eastern United States: the Wabash and Susquehanna River basins. For both basins, >75% of snow ablation events resulted in a positive river discharge response (increase in discharge) at a 3-day lag. Furthermore, results show a significant and positive relationship between ablation event frequency and seasonal discharge response, such that an increase (decrease) in seasonal snow ablation event frequency yields an increase (decrease) in associated seasonal river discharge at a 3-day lag. These relationships indicate that inter-diurnal decreases in snow depth do carry hydrological implications, adding confidence that such a definition of ablation is appropriate for climatological applications.

A seasonal forecasting procedure for reservoir inflows in Central Asia

AbstractThis study develops a procedure for seasonal forecasting river discharge from headwaters above strategically important hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole indices were used as inputs. Predictability was evaluated for average summer inflows conditional on the tercile of the preceding winter climate mode. We find that the winter Niño 3.4 index was significantly positively correlated with following summer inflows to Nurek, Andijan, and Toktogul reservoirs during the period 1941–1980. Kruskal–Wallis and Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests show significant differences in the distributions of summer inflows depending on previous winter Niño 3.4 for all three reservoirs. At Nurek, summer inflows were on average 19% greater following a winter El Niño. During 1941–2016, mean summer inflows to Nurek reservoir linked to previous November–December Niño 3.4 achieved a Heidke Hit Proportion of 51–59% (compared with 33% expected by chance). Acceptable predictions of summer inflow volume were made 44% of the time. Higher inflows are explained by a south‐westerly moisture flux that brings above average precipitation to Central Asia during winter El Niño conditions. Our procedure requires limited data, technical or computing resources—all considerations in data sparse, low capacity regions. Given planned developments of other large, headwater impoundments in Central Asia, early outlooks of discharge could contribute to improved dam safety, economic performance, and transboundary water sharing around such projects.