Seasonal Calendar Research Articles

PENGEMBANGAN PRODUK OLAHAN IKAN LAUT MELALUI PENGUATAN KELOMPOK MASYARAKAT PADA DESA ADAT PESINGGAHAN, KECAMATAN DAWAN, KABUPATEN KLUNGKUNG

The local wisdom of coastal communities is one of the potential for supporting survival amidst limited capital and fishing equipment. Local wisdom, one of which is from natural resources, has the potential to support the improvement of the fishermen's economy. Utilizing local resources by managing fish products into processed products is one of the fishing communities' efforts to develop local potential based on local wisdom. Apart from natural potential in socio-cultural terms, namely the sea picking tradition and knowledge of the fish season calendar, it is also a form of local wisdom from the fishermen of the Pesinggahan Traditional Village which is used to maximize the productivity of marine products. These external factors also encourage the development and production of local products, especially the management of processing marine products into processed products from fishing families. Management developed through efforts to form MSMEs using SWOT analysis to develop local products. These processed products include mackerel fish crackers, smoked fish, fish paste, and dried fish. The results of this research show that the local productivity of the Pesinggahan Village fishing community is maintained because the management is carried out using an integrated work system even though it is very simple and traditional. The efforts made in this research are improvements to build MSMEs through the participation of fishing families which are currently maintained so that local products become regional characteristics. Integrated marine product management can improve the economy of fishermen in meeting their living needs.

Using the Observed Variations of the Start Date of the Rainy Season over Central America for Its Reliable Seasonal Outlook

Abstract We introduce a simple method to define the start and the end of the rainiest part of the year as the first and the last day of the year when the daily rain rate is more or less than the annual mean climatological rain rate for a region or at a given grid point of the rainfall analysis, respectively. A novelty of this work is the adoption of a perturbation technique to generate a total of 1001 ensemble members to account for observational and analysis uncertainties. This allows for a probabilistic estimate of the start and retreat dates of the rainy season at the granularity of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), version 6, rainfall analysis over Central America. The seasonal cycle of the IMERG rainfall analysis is also found to verify with in situ observations in the region. Many large-scale climate drivers affect regional rainfall, often with complex interactions that affect the onset date, retreat date, and magnitude of the seasonal rainfall cycle, making it difficult to predict the length or total quantity of seasonal rainfall using climate drivers alone. Once an onset date is established, however, this metric alone can be more indicative of both the length and total seasonal rainfall anomaly than predicting how the climate drivers will interact to affect the quantity and duration of upcoming seasonal rainfall. The local relationships of the start date with seasonal length and rainfall anomaly are leveraged to produce effective seasonal outlooks of the rainy season for the region by just monitoring the start date variations. Significance Statement The start date and retreat date of the rainy season in Central America are defined every year, precisely to a specific date from our proposed definition of it. This is possible because the region exhibits a strong seasonality of the rainfall. As a result, the year-to-year (interannual) variation of the seasonal rainfall during the rainy season is also determined by the variations in the length of the season that are usually overlooked in fixed calendar seasons. We define the start or retreat date of the rainy season as the first or the last day of the year when the daily rain rate exceeds or falls below the average daily rainfall from 2001 to 2022, respectively. We also find that both start and retreat date variations independently influence the length and total seasonal rainfall of the rainy season. Consequently, these relationships are leveraged to provide an outlook of the forthcoming rainy season from the diagnosis of the variations of its onset date, which is shown to be an effective predictor with significant useful seasonal prediction skills.

Dynamics of automated body condition scores in grazing Holstein cows in a year-round calving system

This observational study aimed to characterize the seasonal dynamics of automated body condition scores (BCS) through the lactation of Holstein cows in a pasture-based system with year-round calvings. Examining the association between nadir BCS (nBCS; defined as the lowest daily BCS after calving) and peak milk yield within each calving period (calendar seasons equally divided in early and late) was a secondary objective of this research. Retrospective data included 2,164 lactations in 539 primiparous (PRI) and 1,625 multiparous (MLT) Holstein cows that calved from July 2021 to June 2023 in a commercial dairy farm located in Southern Chile. Individual BCS were generated in every milking by an automated BCS camera system. Body condition score at calving (BCSc), nBCS, and the change in BCS from calving to nadir (ΔBCS) were considered for the analysis. Peak milk yield (greatest daily milk yield) values were retrieved from on-farm software and lactations were categorized considering quartiles (Q1 = 25% lowest peak milk yield; Q4 = 25% greatest peak milk yield). Data were examined in PRI and MLT cows separately using multivariable linear models that considered calving period and peak milk yield as the main explanatory variables of interest, while BCSc and health status were included as covariables when appropriate. The differences in BCSc among calving periods were more evident in primiparous cows that had the lowest BCSc in early spring (3.13 ± 0.03) and the greatest BCSc in late fall (3.51 ± 0.03). In MLT cows, the lowest and greatest BCSc were recognized in late fall (3.07 ± 0.04) and early summer (3.23 ± 0.03), respectively. Only MLT cows had differences in nBCS and ΔBCS across calving periods: The lowest nBCS were identified in late spring (2.71 ± 0.02), early summer (2.71 ± 0.02), and in late summer (2.71 ± 0.02). The greatest losses in BCS also occurred in early summer (−0.41 ± 0.02) and in late spring (−0.41 ± 0.02). Time from calving to nBCS varied among calving periods and depended on parity category. Primiparous cows reached nBCS earlier in late summer (65 ± 8 DIM) and late spring (68 ± 7 DIM), while MLT had the shortest times to nBCS in late and early fall (67 ± 5 DIM; 68 ± 5 DIM). Greater values at milk peak were associated with lower nBCS only in multiparous cows during the late spring period. We concluded that the dynamics of BCS were associated with calving period in both parity groups. This data could help guide decisions on nutrition and breeding strategies in farms facing comparable conditions.

Thermal and precipitation variability across four seasons in Poland (1951–2020)

Abstract This paper shows spatial variability of temperature and precipitation conditions across the four seasons in Poland and examines long-term trends in these parameters. The spatial variability of temperature in Poland is caused primarily by the clash of oceanic air masses from the west and continental air masses from the east. The spatial distribution of precipitation depends strongly on the relief and altitude above sea level. The seasons are generally getting warmer. However, average temperatures increase over time at different rates and levels of significance. Except in winter, no statistically significant trends were found in the seasonal precipitation totals. Seasons are periods when certain climatic conditions prevail. Depending on the criteria adopted, different types of seasons can be distinguished, such as meteorological, thermal, and calendar seasons. These are considered in this research. Consequently, different time frames of seasons result in varying values and patterns of meteorological characteristics. In this research, this concept is presented using Poland as an example.

Bushfire season in Australian Indigenous seasonal calendars and associated drought trends

ABSTRACT Climate-induced changes in rainfall and temperature across Australia exacerbate drought and bushfire risk which have detrimental impacts on flora, fauna, and water quality. Indigenous Peoples across Australia have recorded climate, environment, and biotic patterns in seasonal calendars, of which five are used to delineate approximate time windows associated with bushfire to demonstrate the necessity of weaving non-colonial and colonial knowledge for better understanding modern climate challenges. The bushfire season (October–March) was examined for variability and trends in the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) historical data from 1950 to 2021. SPEI is an integrative measure of local land-atmospheric conditions and affords physics-based monitoring of drought conditions across large spatial scales, using temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration to evaluate moisture content in a region. We found that drought indices showed moderate correlations with climate variables (SOI and sea surface temperatures). Taken together, this study illustrates overlapping scales of Indigenous and western knowledges in the context of bushfire risk and has the potential to enhance and inform climate adaptation efforts.

ChinaRiceCalendar – seasonal crop calendars for early-, middle-, and late-season rice in China

Abstract. Long time series and large-scale rice calendar datasets provide valuable information for agricultural planning and field management in rice-based cropping systems. However, current regional-level rice calendar datasets do not accurately distinguish between rice seasons in China, causing uncertainty in crop model simulation and climate change impact analysis. Based on satellite remote sensing data, we extracted transplanting, heading, and maturity dates of early-, middle-, and late-season rice across China from 2003 to 2022 and established a multi-season rice calendar dataset named ChinaRiceCalendar (https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/EUP8EY, Liu et al., 2023). Overall, the ChinaRiceCalendar dataset shows good agreement with field-observed phenological dates of early-, middle-, and late-season rice in Chinese agricultural meteorological stations (AMSs). According to the calendar data from 2003 to 2022 in China, the transplanting dates for early-, middle-, and late-season rice shifted by +0.7, −0.7, and −5.1 DOY (day of year) per decade, respectively; the heading dates for early-, middle-, and late-season rice shifted by −0.5, +2.7, and −0.6 DOY per decade, respectively; the maturity dates for early-, middle-, and late-season rice shifted by −0.7, +3.8, and −1.6 DOY per decade, respectively. ChinaRiceCalendar can be utilized to investigate and optimize the spatiotemporal structure of rice cultivation in China under climate and land use change.

Phenology

Flowers blooming, fungi fruiting, insects biting, fish spawning, geese migrating, deer calving; our consciousness is steeped in a seasonal calendar of nature's events. Phenology is the study of these recurring, seasonal life-history events, though nowadays this term is widely applied to the events themselves. From Shakespeare's sonnet 98, "From you I have been absent in the spring", to the appearance of seasonal events and migratory species in the oral traditions of Native Americans, interest in phenology is long-standing and transcends cultures. In this primer we introduce the study of phenology, trace the development of the field, and examine the prominent role phenology has played in evidencing the widespread impacts of anthropogenic climate change on life on Earth. We will consider the potential implications of climatic change for the ability of populations to persist and the stability of species interactions.

Uveitis Onset and Flare-Up: Does the Time of Year Matter?

ABSTRACT Purpose This retrospective chart review tests the hypothesis that initial presentation and flare-up of non-infectious anterior, intermediate, and posterior uveitis varies by month, temperature season, and calendar season among the patient population in Connecticut. Methods The medical records of all adult patients presenting with a chief concern or diagnosis of “uveitis” at a university-based clinic between March 2013 and February 2019 and a community-based clinic between January 2016 and February 2019 in Connecticut were reviewed. Ongoing, chronic uveitis and infectious/traumatic uveitis were excluded. Patient age, sex, comorbid autoimmune conditions, time of onset, and anatomical location of uveitis was collected. χ 2 testing evaluated variation in uveitis presentation based on month, calendar season, and temperature. Results 353 cases of endogenous uveitis were identified among 272 patients. There was no significant variation by month, calendar season, or temperature across the entire population. There was no significant variation by temperature when assessing anterior uveitis, intermediate uveitis, posterior uveitis, and panuveitis cases separately. Though flare-ups did not show any significant seasonal trends, there was significant variation by temperature for new uveitis episodes. Uveitis episodes in patients with autoimmune conditions were shown to have significant variation by temperature. Uveitis episodes in HLA-B27 positive patients were found to have significant variation by both temperature and month. Conclusion While variation by month, calendar season, or temperature is not present for all uveitis patients, a subset of patients with comorbid autoimmune conditions, specifically HLA-B27 positive, experience temperature variations with increasing incidence of flare-ups in transitional months in Connecticut.

Using participatory epidemiology to investigate the causes of cattle abortion in Southwest Ethiopia

Cattle abortion, stemming from both infectious and non-infectious causes, lead to notable financial setbacks in the cattle industry. Between October 2020 and October 2021, an epidemiological investigation took place in Southwest Ethiopia. The objective was to determine the magnitude and seasonal occurrence of the presumed causes of cattle abortion. Information for this research was collected through 30 group discussions, each involving 8–12 participants. Various participatory epidemiological tools, including semi-structured interviews, pairwise ranking, matrix scoring, proportional piling, and seasonal calendars, were employed in the designated areas. By employing the pairwise ranking approach, the relative significance of presumed causes contributing to cattle abortion was established. The identified major presumed causes of cattle abortion, listed in increasing order of importance, were blackleg, foot-and-mouth disease, pasteurellosis, lumpy skin disease, listeriosis, trypanosomosis, Q fever, leptospirosis, and brucellosis. Participants identified brucellosis (6.1%), leptospirosis (6.0%), and Q-fever (5.7%) as the primary presumed causes of abortion, determined through proportional piling. Matrix scoring analysis indicated a robust agreement (W = 0.464–0.989; P < 0.001) among different informant groups regarding both the presumed causes of abortion and the associated clinical signs. Brucellosis and Q-fever were perceived to be more prevalent during the dry season, while leptospirosis, listeriosis, and lumpy skin disease were associated with the wet, hot, and rainy seasons. However, Pasteurellosis, blackleg, and physical/mechanical factors were deemed to be consistently encountered causes of abortion throughout the year. The patterns of seasonal occurrence of suspected abortion causes were widely acknowledged across informant groups (W = 0.977–0.863; P < 0.001). Local practices involving herbal remedies and traditional methods were employed by participants to manage cattle abortion. Moreover, the results underscore the necessity for additional laboratory research to pinpoint the exact causes of abortion in the study areas.

Accumulation rates over the past 260 years archived in Elbrus ice core, Caucasus

Abstract. In this study, we present a seasonally resolved accumulation record spanning from 1750 to 2009 Common Era (CE), based on a 181.8 m ice core obtained from the Elbrus Western Plateau in the Caucasus. We implemented various methods to account for uncertainties associated with glacier flow, layer thinning, and dating. Additionally, we applied a novel approach to calculate a seasonal calendar for meteorological data, enabling comparison with ice core records. The reconstructed accumulation data were compared with available meteorological data, gridded precipitation records, and paleo-reanalysis data. Reconstructed accumulation is representative for a large region south of the Eastern European plain and Black Sea region with summer precipitation being the primary driver of precipitation variability. We identified a statistically significant relationship between changes in regional precipitation and fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, which is, however, not stable over the entire period covered by the ice core.

Environmental aspects of the effectiveness of fish-protection structures such as umbrella on the Irtysh river in the Omsk region

It is generally accepted that water intake facilities used in fishery reservoirs adversely affect the state of fish stocks — a large number of juvenile fish fall into them along with water. The study of environmental factors, hydrological conditions and design solutions affecting the effectiveness of fish-protection structures (devices) such as umbrella installed on bottom water intakes in the form of suction or gravity pipes of pumping stations is of great importance for preventing the death of juvenile fish. Studies of the effectiveness of umbrella fish-protection devices were carried out in 2020–2022 at two water intake facilities located on the Irtysh River within the boundaries of the Omsk Region. Field studies at each water intake were carried out during four calendar seasons (spring, summer, autumn, winter). The collection of materials on the species, size and quantitative composition of larvae and juveniles of fish was carried out before the fish-protection installation, in coastal wells and near the shore in the area of water intake to study the background state of the concentration of juvenile fish around the clock with an interval of 4 hours. Juveniles and larvae of fish in the area of water intake were localized exclusively along the coast, where they were caught. Juveniles and larvae of fish were not recorded at other fishing points. Studies have shown that the location of the water intake umbrella heads in a place remote from the shore, where the larvae and juveniles of fish are practically not found, as well as the low flow rate in the water intake devices, ensure high efficiency of fish-protection devices of channel water intakes.

Community empowerment – based communication pattern to prevent forest and land fires

The rise of devastating impacts of climate change has reached an urgent situation that we must act immediately to combat these problems. As the 13th sustainable development goal focused on climate actions. Bengkalis Regency as one of the highest potentials for land fire has become one of the biggest contributors to air pollution and land fire in Riau province, Indonesia. The role of Masyarakat Peduli Api (MPA) (Anti Fire Community) is to prevent those problems mainly focused on the society to combat the climate impact specifically air pollution and land fire in Bengkalis regency. The purpose of this research is to design a communication pattern for the prevention of forest and land fires based on community empowerment in Desa Wisata, Bukit Batu, Kab. Bengkalis. This study uses a Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) by generating village mapping, season calendar, village tracing, Venn diagram, changes and trends analysis, and metrics ranking. The subject in this study were Anti Fire Community Bengkalis regency, visitors, and the public in general. The result showed that communication pattern is required to pursue effective collaboration between all parties to combat the impact of climate change. Moreover, the action that done by MPA has become one of preventive action to solve land fires.

Optimizing Logistics in Formula 1: Simplifying Complex Race Season Schedules

This article examines the global logistics challenges of the Formula 1 season. Throughout the season, F1 needs to hold races in 21 different locations worldwide, and each race requires hundreds of people working together behind the scenes to ensure that everything is ready within the specified time. As a highly challenging sporting event, F1s ten teams must configure optimal facilities in 21 temporary headquarters and rely on partners such as DHL to transport over one thousand tons of equipment which worth millions of dollars to the competition venues. Shipping equipment and racing parts involve complex logistics across continents, with risks of delays. Solutions include prioritizing tracking and scheduling races in adjacent geographic areas to reduce transportation costs and risks. The article also explores ways to resolve logistical complexities in the F1 season schedule, including considering trucks as the primary mode of transport, concentrating races in the same geographical area and rearranging the season calendar to reduce transport costs and enable sustainable racing operations.

EASTER SPRING SONGS IN THE INTERFLUVE OF THE LOWER PRIPYAT, UZH AND TETERIV RIVERS

The northern lands of the modern Kyiv region, located between the Pripyat, Uzh, and Teteriv rivers in their downstream, historically and geographically belong to Polissia. Ethnographers rightly consider this territory a reserve of ancient Slavic traditions. In the life of local residents, various calendar rites of pre-Christian origin continued to function until the beginning of the 21st century. Among all the calendar seasons, spring was particularly diverse. Rituals and spring songs changed at different stages of the spring season and reflected the state of nature and the aspirations of people, first of all young people: first to summon spring, and later to activate its signs.&#x0D; The article is devoted to consideration of the songs of the middle phase of spring in this territory – from the Easter holiday to the Trinity. They are noticeably different from the songs сalling for spring at the beginning of the season. The girls did not just sing Easter songs, but accompanied them with a ritual dance, roundelays. They held each other`s hands and moved in a circle or along a sinuous line, and sometimes imitated work in the field using special gestures. The content of these songs is wide – from children's game plots to small performances on the topic of relations between a boy and a girl. Songs also differ in musical features. The song material in the article is presented according to the rhythmic-structural typology principles. Songs were recorded by the author in the years 1979–2007. At the end of the article, music samples are provided (transcribed by the author). Abbreviations mean the names of the districts of the Kyiv region for the time of recording (Pls = Polisky district, Chnb = Chornobylskyi district, Ivn = Ivankivskyi district). Song forms are encoded using system of special characters developed by I. Klymenko (2008; 2020).

Predicting precipitation on the decadal timescale: A prototype climate service for the hydropower sector

Decadal predictions present an emerging opportunity for various socio-economic sectors affected by climate variability. However, the development of associated climate services is still in an incipient stage. This study focuses on developing a prototype climate service for an end-user in the hydropower sector. The service aimed at predicting precipitation in three drainage basins (Guadalquivir, Ebro and Po) for the next ten years, and was developed in close collaboration with the user. In this paper we do not provide the real-time forecasts, but we focus on describing and evaluating the methods and the models used. Using a European multi-model ensemble, the predictive skill for precipitation is found to vary with the calendar season, the forecast range and the drainage basin considered, though it is generally low for the purposes of supporting such a climate service. To overcome this deficiency, a hybrid approach was developed making combined use of the good skill in predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the observed dominant influence of the latter on the decadal variability of precipitation in the areas of interest. Implementing this hybrid approach, which combines predictive information from the dynamical models with statistical information from observations, brings significant skill improvements in all basins during the extended cold season (November-March) for the first 10 forecast years. The hybrid model outperforms the direct multi-model ensemble output, exhibiting statistically significant skill for all basins. Our results suggest that utilising large-scale predictors can significantly improve regional predictions, and provide usable information for the hydropower sector.

Paradise on Earth

Feraferia, ‘a love culture for wilderness’, is a contemporary Pagan religion that celebrates humans’ erotic union with Nature. It was the brainchild of artist, Frederick Adams (1928–2008), who in 1956 had a vision of a universal goddess and subsequently devoted himself to the divine feminine as a ‘Maiden Goddess of the Wilderness’ called Korê. Formally incorporated in 1967, Feraferia became the second Pagan church in US history, and it is still active today. Herein I examine Feraferia through an ecocritical lens, with a particular focus on the role of trees, the anthropomorphisation of nature envisioned as a young female body, ecosexuality, and the construction of henges; circular structures aligned with local topography, used as seasonal and astronomical calendars wherein ritual magic and ‘faerie enchantment’ are employed in order to heal and revitalise the natural world. I demonstrate that Feraferia’s enchanted approach to the world resonates with contemporary ecological activist thought, particularly ecofeminism and ecosexuality. I conclude that many of Feraferia’s ecospiritual concepts have value today because they can heighten conscious awareness of human situatedness within the real physical world, both on our own planet as well as within the wider surrounding space of our part of the universe.

Laut yang Tak (Lagi) Bersahabat: Adaptasi Nelayan Terhadap Perubahan Iklim di Desa Rampa Kabupaten Kotabaru

Fishermen in Rampa Village Kotabaru District are faced with serious problems in conducting fishing activities due to climate change. This study aims to describe the existence of local wisdom and forms of adaptation of fishermen in dealing with climate change. This study uses a qualitative approach to the type of phenomenological research. Data collection techniques using participant observation, in-depth interviews and documentation. The data analysis technique uses the interactive model's Miles and Huberman, which consists of data reduction, data display, and conclusion/verification. The results show that the local knowledge of fishermen from Rampa Village that had existed for a long time was still being used, even though in some aspects it had been made adaptation to faced changes in environmental conditions due to climate change. The form of adaptation is that fishermen no longer go to sea based on the seasonal calendar but based on the latest weather conditions. Fishing equipment used it has changed as a form of technological adaptation in faced climate change. The form of adaptation is that all fishing boats are equipped with engines to be more adaptive to sea conditions that can change suddenly, for example storms that come without being accompanied by natural signs which are usually a source of information for fishermen. In carrying out fishing activities, some fishermen already use a modern navigation system (GPS), which also functions to track fish spots in the sea. This means that the traditional fishing system is no longer effective. In terms of intensity, previously fishermen did not go to sea only on certain days (holidays and the likes). Currently, fishermen may not go to sea for a long time due to weather conditions that do not support fishing activities. This has an effect on the socio-economic life of the community, namely that people's income becomes erratic.

Partipatory disease surveilance in Fentale &amp; Adama Districts of East Shewa Zone, Oromia Regional State

Livestock play a major role in the livelihoods of over 70% of the population. Small ruminants provide with a vast range of products and services, including milk, meat, skins, and wool throughout the year. Diseases of small ruminants are one of the common problems that hinder production. One is Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), or small ruminant plague, is a viral disease primarily affecting goats and sheep. The objectives of the study were to prioritize the major diseases of sheep and goat in selected districts of oromia Regional state based on producer’s perception in participatory manner and to understand the status of PPR through PDS technique to enlighten further epidemiological study and future control endeavor. Two districts were selected from the zone (Fentale and Adama) and the selection of the PAs (the lowest administrative level in Ethiopia) in each district was determined in discussion with the district livestock offices. A PDS team from Asella Regional Veterinary Laboratory was deployed to field and collected, reviewed of secondary data and participatory disease search at the zone. Participatory epidemiology techniques like Semi structured interviewing, Ranking and scoring, participatory mapping, proportional pilling and semi-structured interview and seasonal disease calendars were utilized. The major livestock species raised in Fentale are cattle, Sheep, goats, horses, donkeys, camels and poultry and whereas, major livestock species rose in Adama are cattle, Goat, Sheep, donkeys, Horse, mules and poultry. In all district, disease is mentioned the major challenge to the production of small ruminant. A disease like PPR, Fasciolosis, Pasterolosis, footrot, Sheep and Goat pox were the main small ruminant disease mentioned.

Village Adoption Programme: A Benchmark Survey Report of Damera Village

Benchmark survey was conducted during the year 2020 in adopted village, Damera of Agricultural College, Warangal to collect information on various aspects like socio-economic conditions of farmers, demographic profile, land holding, cropping pattern, farming system practices and constraints faced by farmers, adoption and technology gaps of new agricultural technologies/varieties. Participatory rural appraisal techniques like direct observation, social mapping, venn diagram, timeline, seasonal calendar, resource mapping and transect walk were followed with the involvement of farmers to find out the information about problems, needs and potentials of the village. The study report shows that, majority of the farmers belong to marginal farmers (75.20%). It was observed that farmers highly depend on local dealers for purchasing seeds. Hybrids were preferred in cotton and maize cultivation and mainly purchased from local shop dealers. Hence, demonstration on popularization of new agricultural varieties/knowledge on remunerative cropping systems and need based location specific capacity building programmes must be conducted to the farmers for improvement in their socio economic status.

Spatio-temporal variability and rainfall trend affects seasonal calendar of maize production in southern central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Understanding rainfall variability is important to establish crop calendar related agronomic decisions. To this end, we defined start and end of seasons, analyzed dry spell and evaluated conditional risks of alternative planting dates using a thirty years daily rainfall data across southern central rift valley of Ethiopia. Results showed that the probability of annual rainfall being greater than 1000 mm was 97, 24, 94, and 61%, in Dilla, Bilate, Shamana, and Hawassa clusters, respectively. The variability of annual total rainfall in the lowland areas of Dilla and Bilate was above 25%, whereas for Shamana and Hawassa was below 20%. Variability of seasonal rainfall during FMAM was 33.7%, which is higher than ONDJ (27.1%) and JJAS (27.9%), which could lead to maize plants suffering moisture stress during FMAM season. The onset of rains had variability of 29.2, 19.5, 17.5 and 26.5%, and also LGP showed variability of 22.8, 22.1, 21.2 and 20.3% in Shamana, Bilate, Hawassa, and Dilla clusters, respectively. Moreover Shamana, Bilate, Hawassa and Dilla clusters are hit by agricultural drought in one out of 2.61, 2.3, 2.5 and 2.5 years, respectively. Model based analysis of conditional risk of farmers planting dates also showed a success rate of less than 10, 7, 40 and 63% for maize variety in Shamana, Bilate, Hawassa and Dilla clusters, respectively. However, the success rate of risk taker farmers’ is higher than anticipated by the model. The farmers who take risk were encouraged in Shamana cluster by local edaphic, physiographic, socioeconomic and climatic differences. Hence, there is a need to seek real time local agro-metrological advisory and follow the necessary tactical and strategic farming decisions. Moreover, there is also a need to incorporate local factors with modern climate models to obtain synchronized calendar estimates.