Sea Surface Temperature Trends Research Articles

Did recent sea surface temperature warming reinforce the extreme East Asian summer monsoon precipitation in 2020?

We analyzed the possible effects of recent sea surface temperature (SST) warming on the extraordinary East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation in 2020 summer. The dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of SST are examined by conducting regional climate model experiments with observed SST and cold SST where the 22-year SST trend is removed. In the presence of warm SST, precipitation increases in low latitudes but decreases in the EASM region. This dipolar precipitation change pattern opposes the precipitation anomalies in 2020 summer, indicating that the extraordinary 2020 EASM precipitation is not likely driven by recent SST warming. The warm SST suppresses the western North Pacific subtropical high expansion and weakens the southwesterly from the South China Sea toward the EASM region. In terms of large-scale atmospheric circulations, SST-induced wind changes strengthen the local Walker circulation in the South China Sea and the Philippines and the local Hadley circulation across the EASM region. These support the reduced EASM rainfall in the control experiment compared to the cold SST experiment and imply that the precipitation reduction by dynamical effects could exceed the precipitation increase by thermodynamic effects in the EASM region under warm SST.

Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice

Abstract. Antarctic sea ice has exhibited significant variability over the satellite record, including a period of prolonged and gradual expansion, as well as a period of sudden decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain this variability, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal structure of observed Antarctic sea ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. The third mode is also related to periods of abrupt Antarctic sea ice decline that are associated with a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat transport. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea ice and large-scale sea surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability is a key ingredient for abrupt Antarctic sea ice changes.

Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a Stabilizing Climate

AbstractPrecipitation projections in transient climate change scenarios have been extensively studied over multiple climate model generations. Although these simulations have also been used to make projections at specific Global Warming Levels (GWLs), dedicated simulations are more appropriate to study changes in a stabilizing climate. Here, we analyze precipitation projections in six multi‐century experiments with fixed atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, conducted with the UK Earth System Model and which span a range of GWLs between 1.5 and 5°C of warming. Regions are identified where the sign of precipitation trends in high‐emission transient projections is reversed in the stabilization experiments. For example, stabilization reverses a summertime precipitation decline across Europe. This precipitation recovery occurs concurrently with changes in the pattern of Atlantic sea surface temperature trends due to a slow recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the stabilization experiments, along with changes in humidity and atmospheric circulation.

Spatial pattern of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a trends in relation to hydrodynamic processes in the Alborán Sea

Environmental conditions such as temperature, planktonic biomass, and ocean currents play an important role in the development and distribution of marine species. This work aims to estimate, in a high spatial resolution, the actual trends of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) and to assess the relationship with the local hydrodynamic conditions in the Alborán Sea. To investigate these objectives, time series of SST and Chl-a of satellite sensor data were analyzed during 20 years from January 2001 to December 2020, using the Seasonal-Trend-Loess (STL) decomposition method and the Mann-Kendall seasonality test. The results, obtained with a 95% of confidence, showed that the Alborán Sea basin is subject to sea surface warming evaluated at 0.027 ± 0.008 ° C per year, related to the warming of the Atlantic water mass, which contributes to a decrease of productivity evaluated at -0.0024 ± 0.0003 μg /l per year of Chl-a concentration. These trends are not homogeneous over the entire basin area but show a large regional variation between different parts of the Alborán Sea due to the hydrodynamic process of the Atlantic Jet - Western Alboran Gyre system (AJ-WAG), which is more active especially in summer/autumn seasons and contribute largely to these changes by mixing the waters of the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.

Man, it's a hot one: Trends and extremes in Florida autumn heat stress

AbstractExtreme heat is the deadliest weather‐related hazard in the United States, and is increasing in frequency, intensity and duration due to climate change. Heat stress is broadly defined as environmental influences on body temperature, and in this study is evaluated using wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), which incorporates temperature, humidity, wind speed and solar radiation. Heat stress and associated humid heat have increased significantly across many regions of the globe, particularly in the subtropics and Tropics, which exacerbates health and excess mortality risks in those areas. However, heat stress has typically been investigated as a solely summer phenomenon. This study uses WBGT to examine heat stress trends and extremes during climatological autumn from the 1950s to 2022 at eight Florida cities. Results show that average autumn heat stress has increased significantly throughout much of Florida, particularly at coastal locations in the Florida Peninsula. Daytime heat stress increases were larger than their night‐time counterparts in northern Florida, while the opposite was true in central and southern Florida. Extreme (90th percentile) autumn heat stress events also increased in intensity and frequency, particularly in the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys. Furthermore, locations in the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys experienced increases of greater than 1.5 extreme autumn heat stress days per decade. Heat stress trends were predominantly largest in urban coastal environments, suggesting links to urbanization as well as statistically significant early autumn warming trends in sea surface temperatures. Overall, results indicated that heat stress in Florida is no longer solely a summer hazard and poses a particular threat to coastal areas in early autumn when ocean heat content is still near its climatological peak.

Trends in Atmospheric Heat Transport Since 1980

Abstract We investigate the linear trends in meridional atmospheric heat transport (AHT) since 1980 in atmospheric reanalysis datasets, coupled climate models, and atmosphere-only climate models forced with historical sea surface temperatures. Trends in AHT are decomposed into contributions from three components of circulation: (i) transient eddies, (ii) stationary eddies, and (iii) the mean meridional circulation. All reanalyses and models agree on the pattern of AHT trends in the Southern Ocean, providing confidence in the trends in this region. There are robust increases in transient-eddy AHT magnitude in the Southern Ocean in the reanalyses, which are well replicated by the atmosphere-only models, while coupled models show smaller magnitude trends. This suggests that the pattern of sea surface temperature trends contributes to the transient-eddy AHT trends in this region. In the tropics, we find large differences between mean-meridional circulation AHT trends in models and the reanalyses, which we connect to discrepancies in tropical precipitation trends. In the Northern Hemisphere, we find less evidence of large-scale trends and more uncertainty, but note several regions with mismatches between models and the reanalyses that have dynamical explanations. Throughout this work we find strong compensation between the different components of AHT, most notably in the Southern Ocean where transient-eddy AHT trends are well compensated by trends in the mean-meridional circulation AHT, resulting in relatively small total AHT trends. This highlights the importance of considering AHT changes holistically, rather than each AHT component individually.

Remote Estimates of Sea Surface Nitrate and Its Trends From Ocean Color in the Northwest Pacific

AbstractSea surface nitrate (SSN) plays an important role in assessing new production and phytoplankton growth in the ocean, yet it has been challenging to estimate SSN from satellites due to its complex and varying relationship with different environmental proxies. The different SSN trends in the northwest Pacific reported in previous studies call for more detailed research to examine the interannual variabilities in SSN. We addressed this problem by developing a stacking‐random‐forest based algorithm for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). It allows estimating SSN from daily sea surface temperature (SST) and Chlorophyll‐a concentration (Chl) at a spatial resolution of 4 km. For SSN ranging between 0.0005 and 25.88 μmol/kg (N = 3,452), the model had a root mean square difference of 1.34 μmol/kg (5.3%) and coefficient of determination of 0.92. Further independent validation and sensitivity tests demonstrated the validity of the algorithm in retrieving SSN. Using this novel data record, for the first time, we investigated the SSN interannual variabilities and trends from MODIS. Overall, the SSN showed a weak decreasing trend of −0.01 ± 0.007 μmol kg−1 yr−1 (p < 0.05) in the northwest Pacific in 2002–2020, associated with an increasing trend in SST (0.03 ± 0.01˚C yr−1 at p < 0.05) and insignificant trend (0.001 ± 0.001 mg m−3 yr−1 at p > 0.05) in Chl. The interannual variabilities of SSN were significantly correlated with the environmental proxies (SST, Chl) and the climate indices (Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation). The SSN trends can be further restricted with more data available.

20th Century Warming in the Western Florida Keys Was Dominated by Increasing Winter Temperatures

AbstractLong‐lived Atlantic coral species like Orbicella faveolata are important archives of oceanographic change in shallow, marine environments like the Florida Keys. Not only can coral‐based records extend for multiple centuries beyond the limits of the instrumental record, but they can also provide a more accurate representation of in situ conditions than gridded interpolated sea‐surface temperature (SST) products for nearshore reef environments. We use the coral Sr/Ca paleothermometer to produce a 150‐year (1830–1980 C.E.) monthly SST reconstruction from an O. faveolata colony collected in the Marquesas Keys, FL, USA. An important feature of our record is a significant 20th‐century warming trend in winter SSTs. We hypothesize that the winter warming trend was driven partially by a decrease in upwelling associated cyclonic eddies spinning off the Florida Current. A long‐term weakening of winter Florida Current transport over the 20th century could be responsible for decreased cyclonic eddy formation in the Florida Straits. Another feature of the record is pronounced multidecadal fluctuations of mean annual warming and cooling in the record, which correspond to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), with the AMV lagging behind western Florida Keys temperatures by 5–11 years. Strong coherence between coral‐based SST reconstructions in the western Florida Keys with broader scale Atlantic oceanographic trends over the past century suggests a common driver of regional SST variability.

Baseline Climatology of the Canary Current Upwelling System and Evolution of Sea Surface Temperature

Global climate change has induced a rise in sea surface temperature (SST), although this increase is not uniform across the world. Significant variations exist between coastal and offshore waters, particularly in regions affected by upwelling processes. This study focuses on the Canary Current Upwelling System (CCUS), stretching from Northwest Iberia to Northwest Africa. High-resolution remotely sensed SST data (0.05°) from the ODYSSEA Level 4 Sea Surface Temperature Reprocessed dataset were validated with in situ measurements and employed to establish a regional climatological baseline for 1982–2012. Subsequent years were compared to this baseline to construct SST anomaly maps, revealing SST changes since 2012. The study area was further divided into sub-regions for comparative analysis. Results indicate that SST consistently increased at a higher rate offshore compared to the adjacent nearshore regions. A reference dataset spanning 1951–1981 was used to gauge SST variability between the two baselines. SST exhibited a 0.59 °C increase from 1951–1981 to 1982–2012, with a slowing of SST trends beyond the 1982–2012 baseline. This research offers valuable insights into the climatological dynamics of the CCUS. These findings enhance our understanding of this critical coastal system’s climatology, laying the groundwork for future investigations into evolving climate patterns in coastal regions.

Regime change in northwest Atlantic sea surface temperatures revealed using a quantile approach

Trends in sea surface temperatures (SST) of the US Northeast Continental Shelf and the adjacent Slope Sea were analyzed using a quantile approach. SST through the period 1982–2021 were analyzed for change in annual mean and range. In addition, the mean of each 25% quantile of the data by year was calculated. Using the full time series, the climatological SSTs at each quantile was determined, which in turn were used with the annual data to determine the number of days temperature fell within the limits of each climatological quantile. The time series of the data parameters were summarized by grid location and for a series of representative index areas. The index areas were analyzed for evidence of change points or regime shifts using the STARS (Sequential T-test Analysis of Regime Shifts) algorithm. The widely reported SST warming in this region was reinforced with our analysis; our findings also revealed new aspects of the change of thermal conditions in important ways. Mean annual temperature trended at approximately 0.36 °C per decade; however, warm quantile SSTs increased by more than 1.25 °C per decade in the Slope Sea, representing a five degree increase over the study period. The change point analysis suggested the change in thermal regime began as early as 2005 or 2007 with the study region fully enveloped by regime change by 2012. A previously identified change point in 1999 appears to be related to the duration of warming as opposed to SST levels. Mean SST alone does not capture the nature of high temperature exposure for living marine species in the study area; these regions may be experiencing a month or more of stressfully higher SST. The thermal effects derived using the quantile approach suggest different types of thermal exposures compared to heat wave analyses, especially related to cumulative exposure.

Coral mucus as a reservoir of bacteriophages targeting Vibrio pathogens.

The increasing trend in sea surface temperature promotes the spread of Vibrio species, which are known to cause diseases in a wide range of marine organisms. Among these pathogens, Vibrio mediterranei has emerged as a significant threat, leading to bleaching in the coral species Oculina patagonica. Bacteriophages, or phages, are viruses that infect bacteria, thereby regulating microbial communities and playing a crucial role in the coral's defense against pathogens. However, our understanding of phages that infect V. mediterranei is limited. In this study, we identified two phage species capable of infecting V. mediterranei by utilizing a combination of cultivation and metagenomic approaches. These phages are low-abundance specialists within the coral mucus layer that exhibit rapid proliferation in the presence of their hosts, suggesting a potential role in coral defense. Additionally, one of these phages possesses a conserved domain of a leucine-rich repeat protein, similar to those harbored in the coral genome, that plays a key role in pathogen recognition, hinting at potential coral-phage coevolution. Furthermore, our research suggests that lytic Vibrio infections could trigger prophage induction, which may disseminate genetic elements, including virulence factors, in the coral mucus layer. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of historical coral-phage interactions as a form of coral immunity against invasive Vibrio pathogens.

Comparative analysis of spatiotemporal trends in sea surface temperature in the major marine protected areas of the Eastern Tropical Pacific

The Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) is characterized by complex oceanographic dynamics that affect the regional sea surface temperature (SST), a key parameter driving marine ecosystems. To date no comparative studies have been conducted on the spatial and temporal variations of SST among the several marine protected areas in the ETP. The present study used remote sensing to evaluate the monthly, annual, and decadal variations in SST from 1982 to 2019 in Coiba National Park (Coiba), Cocos Island National Park (Cocos), Malpelo Fauna and Flora Sanctuary (Malpelo), Gorgona Island National Park (Gorgona), Galápagos Marine Reserve (Galápagos) and La Plata Island (La Plata). An overall increasing trend in SST was observed across all study sites, except for West Galápagos. A decrease in SST anomaly was observed from February through April at Malpelo, Coiba, Gorgona and La Plata. These observations are likely in response to the Humboldt Current and upwelling events in the Colombian Pacific Basin. Using a longer SST dataset is recommended to determine if the annual, monthly and decadal trends observed here are driven by local, regional or global processes. Consistent monitoring of SST trends is a strategic practice in understanding and planning for current and projected changes in the marine environment.

Winds and Meltwater Together Lead to Southern Ocean Surface Cooling and Sea Ice Expansion

AbstractSouthern Ocean surface cooling and Antarctic sea ice expansion from 1979 through 2015 have been linked both to changing atmospheric circulation and melting of Antarctica's grounded ice and ice shelves. However, climate models have largely been unable to reproduce this behavior. Here we examine the contribution of observed wind variability and Antarctic meltwater to Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and Antarctic sea ice. The free‐running, CMIP6‐class GISS‐E2.1‐G climate model can simulate regional cooling and neutral sea ice trends due to internal variability, but they are unlikely. Constraining the model to observed winds and meltwater fluxes from 1990 through 2021 gives SST variability and trends consistent with observations. Meltwater and winds contribute a similar amount to the SST trend, and winds contribute more to the sea ice trend than meltwater. However, while the constrained model captures much of the observed sea ice variability, it only partially captures the post‐2015 sea ice reduction.

Surface Temperature Pattern Scenarios Suggest Higher Warming Rates Than Current Projections

AbstractAtmosphere‐ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) struggle to reproduce recently observed sea surface temperature (SST) trend patterns. Here, we quantify the relevance of this SST pattern uncertainty to global‐mean temperature projections through convolving Green's functions with SST pattern scenarios that differ from the ones AOGCMs produce by themselves. We find that future SST pattern uncertainty has a significant impact on projections, such as increasing total model uncertainty by 40% in a high‐emissions scenario by 2085. A reversal of the current cooling trend in the East Pacific over the next few decades could lead to a period of global‐mean warming with a 60% higher rate than currently projected. SST pattern uncertainty works through a destabilization of the shortwave cloud feedback to affect temperature projections. It is critical for climate change impact, adaptation, and mitigation assessments to incorporate this previously unaccounted for uncertainty until we trust the evolution of SST patterns in AOGCMs.

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature in the Extratropical Southern Indian Ocean on Antarctic Sea Ice in Austral Spring

Abstract The relationship between the seasonal Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) variability and the extratropical southern Indian Ocean (SIO) sea surface temperature (SST) is explored in this study. It is found that the Antarctic SIC in a wide band of the SIO, Ross Sea, and Weddell Sea is significantly related to an SIO dipole (SIOD) SST anomaly on the interannual time scale during austral spring. This relationship is linearly independent of the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean dipole, and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode. The positive phase of the SIOD, with warm SST anomalies off of western Australia and cold SST anomalies centered around 60°E in high latitudes, stimulates a downstream wave train that induces large-scale cyclonic circulations over the SIO and the Ross and Weddell Seas. Subsequently, anomalous horizontal moisture advection causes water vapor divergence, changes the surface energy budget, and cools the underlying ocean, which leads to the increased SIC over the region in the SIO, Ross Sea, and Weddell Sea. This SIOD SST anomaly reached a record low during the austral spring of 2016 and promoted the prominent wave pattern at high latitudes, contributing to the dramatic decline of sea ice in the 2016 spring. In addition, the proportion of the SIC trend that is linearly congruent with the SIOD SST trend during austral spring is quantified. The results indicate that the trend in the SIOD SST may account for a significant component of the 1979–2014 SIC trend in the Ross Sea with the congruency peaking at 60%.

Paradigm shift in the onset phase of the Indian Summer Monsoon since 2000 and its potential connection to South Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean basin has undergone significant changes over the past two decades, and this study examines major shifts in the onset characteristics of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) in response to changes in the dynamical and thermodynamic conditions. A thermodynamic index shows that the post-2000 period witnesses an approximately 3-day earlier (May 27) onset of ISM than the pre-2000 period. In the absence of an abrupt and distinct change from the dry to the wet season, the post-2000 era can be distinguished by its early and longer onset process. The Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) undergoes a phase change during its evolution, which weakens the Mascarene High (MH) and hence the pressure gradient. The weakening of the MH along with the heterogeneity in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends have led to a weaker meridional pressure gradient over the Indian monsoon domain, resulting in a weak onset of the ISM. Additionally, warming in the Arabian Sea starts earlier than expected. The prolonged duration of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) onset process in the post-2000 era can be attributed to several factors. These include the broader ascending limb of the Hadley cell over the south equatorial Indian Ocean, reduced wind shear, and the early development of a warmer Arabian Sea prior to the onset of the monsoon.

Late Quaternary glacier advances in the Andes of Santiago, central Chile, and paleoclimatic implications

Andean mountain glaciers in central Chile are in a transitional zone between the seasonal influence of the mid-latitude westerlies and subtropical semiarid conditions to the north. Long-term glacial dynamics for these glaciers and their relationship with the paleoclimate during the late Quaternary are poorly known despite their relevancy. We estimate here the timing and extent of late Pleistocene–early Holocene glaciers in the Andes of Santiago (33°50′S) from geomorphological and geochronological analyses. Our observations evidence that a glacial stage occurred before the Last Glacial Maximum (ELGM) at the San Gabriel drift (1,300 m a.s.l.), dated as ∼46–36 ka. Glacial stages during the latest Pleistocene–early Holocene transition period, partially concomitant with the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) and with the Younger Dryas (YD) chronozones, were identified and dated at La Engorda drift (2,450–2,570 m a.s.l.) at ∼15–10 ka. We propose that the San Gabriel drift represents a prolonged glacial advance driven by increased precipitation and cold conditions off central Chile during glacial times. In La Engorda drift, late glacial advances occurred associated with increased regional precipitation, in the context of a transition from humid to arid climate in central Chile, concomitantly with a general warming trend of sea surface temperatures offshore in the southeastern Pacific and with reduced austral summer insolation. The results support the sensitivity of the Andean mountain glaciers to precipitation and paleoclimate conditions, most possibly associated with periods of increased northward influence of the mid-latitude westerlies during glacial and late glacial times, in addition to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact since the mid-Holocene, driving late Quaternary glacier advances in central Chile. We estimate a maximum variation of ∼1,200 m in the position of the late Quaternary Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA), inferred at ∼3,400 m and ∼3,600 m a.s.l. at the time of the San Gabriel and La Engorda drifts, respectively, with respect to its modern location close to 4,600 m a.s.l.

Separating internal and forced contributions to near term SST predictability in the CESM2-LE

An open question in the study of climate prediction is whether internal variability will continue to contribute to prediction skill in the coming decades, or whether predictable signals will be overwhelmed by rising temperatures driven by anthropogenic forcing. We design a neural network that is interpretable such that its predictions can be decomposed to examine the relative contributions of external forcing and internal variability to future regional sea surface temperature (SST) trend predictions in the near-term climate (2020–2050). We show that there is additional prediction skill to be garnered from internal variability in the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble, even in a relatively high forcing future scenario. This predictability is especially apparent in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Tropical Pacific Oceans as well as in the Southern Ocean. We further investigate how prediction skill covaries across the ocean and find three regions with distinct coherent prediction skill driven by internal variability. SST trend predictability is found to be associated with consistent patterns of decadal variability for the grid points within each region.

Aerosol processes perturb cloud trends over Bay of Bengal: observational evidence

Although, the aerosol-cloud interactions and its impact on daily to seasonal radiation/temperature has been well observed over South Asia in last two decade, the role of aerosol-cloud interactions on cloud occurrence trends (and surface temperature) is yet not evident. Here, evidence of aerosol-induced control on cloud occurrence trends over the Northern Bay of Bengal (NBOB) during the monsoon onset period is presented. In last 15 years, increased aerosol emissions over North India have led to an increase in aerosol loading at an elevated altitude of 1–3 km over the NBOB outflow region in monsoon onset period. This elevated aerosol loading induces increases the air temperature at 1–2 km altitude and stabilizes the lower troposphere over the region in recent years. The enhanced atmospheric stability in the region caused low-level cloud occurrences (below 3 km) to increase in recent years by ~20%, potentially contributing to the observed non-intuitive cooling trends in sea surface temperatures. These aerosol-cloud-climate observations emphasize the crucial need for improved aerosol representations in coupled ocean-atmosphere models for accurate predictions of climate change over South Asia.

Patterns and Trends in Chlorophyll‐a Concentration and Phytoplankton Phenology in the Biogeographical Regions of Southwestern Atlantic

AbstractThe Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (SWA), is considered one of the most productive areas of the world, with a high abundance of ecologically and economically important fish species. Yet, the biological responses of this complex region to climate variability are still uncertain. Here, using 24 years of satellite‐derived Chl‐a data, we classified the SWA into 9 spatially coherent regions based on the temporal variability of Chl‐a concentration, as revealed by SOM (Self‐Organizing Maps) analysis. These biogeographical regions were the basis of a regional trend analysis in phytoplankton biomass, phenological indices, and environmental forcing variations. A general positive trend in phytoplankton concentration was observed, especially in the highly productive areas of the northern shelf‐break, where phytoplankton biomass has increased at a rate of up to 0.42 ± 0.04 mg m−3 per decade. Significant positive trends in sea surface temperature were observed in 4 of the 9 regions (0.08–0.26 °C decade−1) and shoaling of the mixing layer depth in 5 of the 9 regions (−1.50 to −3.36 m decade−1). In addition to the generally positive trend in Chl‐a, the most conspicuous change in the phytoplankton temporal patterns in the SWA is a delay in the autumn bloom (between 15 ± 3 and 24 ± 6 days decade−1, depending on the region). The observed variations in phytoplankton phenology could be attributed to climate‐induced ocean warming and extended stratification period. Our results provided further evidence of the impact of climate change on these highly productive waters.