Sea Surface Temperature Front Research Articles

Impact of the Gulf Stream front on atmospheric rivers and Rossby wave train in the North Atlantic

AbstractThe Gulf Stream (GS) ocean front exhibits intense ocean–atmosphere interaction in winter, which has a significant impact on the genesis and development of extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic. The atmospheric rivers (ARs), closely related with the cyclones, transport substantial moisture from the North Atlantic towards the Western European coast. While the influence of the GS front on extratropical cyclones has been extensively studied, its effect on ARs remains unclear. In this study, two sets of ensemble experiments are conducted using a high-resolution global Community Atmosphere Model forced with or without the GS sea surface temperature front. Our findings reveal that the inclusion of the GS front leads to approximately 25% enhancement of water vapor transport and precipitation associated with ARs in the GS region, attributed to changes in both AR frequency and intensity. Furthermore, this leads to a more pronounced downstream response in Western Europe, characterized by up to 60% (40%) precipitation increases (reductions) around Spain (Norway) for the most extreme events (exceeding 90 mm/day). The influence of the GS front on ARs is mediated by both thermodynamic and dynamic factors. The thermodynamic aspect involves an overall increase of water vapor in both the GS region and Western Europe, promoting AR genesis. The dynamic aspect encompasses changes in storm tracks and Rossby wave train, contributing to downstream AR shift. Importantly, we find the co-occurrence of ARs and the GS front is crucial for inducing deep ascending motion and heating above the GS front, which perturbs the deep troposphere and triggers upper-level Rossby wave response. These findings provide a further understanding of the complex interaction between the oceanic front in the western boundary current regions and extratropical weather systems and the associated dynamics behind them.

Diurnal warming rectification in the tropical Pacific linked to sea surface temperature front

Sharp and rapid changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) associated with fronts and the diurnal cycle can drive changes in the atmospheric boundary-layer stability and circulation. Here we show how a one-dimensional surface ocean model forced with either high-resolution or daily averaged surface fluxes can be used to distinguish diurnal versus frontal SST anomalies observed from an uncrewed surface vehicle. The model, forced with daily satellite fluxes, shows that the diurnal warming is largest within the equatorial Pacific cold tongue of SST. The strong persistent SST front north of the cold tongue is evident in both the oceanic and atmospheric boundary-layer stability scales and, as a consequence, in the magnitude of the diurnal ocean warming. Using SST, barometric pressure and surface wind measurements from moorings at 0°, 95° W and 2° N, 95° W, we show that the front in the SST diurnal warming results in a weakened SST front in the afternoon and a corresponding reduced meridional gradient in the barometric pressure that appears to contribute to a diurnal pulsing of the surface meridional winds. To the extent that these modulate the surface branch of the Hadley cell, these diurnal variations may have remote impacts.

Trends of Satellite-Derived Thermal Fronts in the Southeast and Southwest of Australia Between 1993 and 2019

Oceanic fronts play a significant role in marine ecosystems by enhancing vertical exchange, promoting the aggregation of plankton, and drawdown of organic carbon. Anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the twentieth century has driven global warming, leading to rising ocean temperatures. Specific regions warming faster than the global average—known as ‘ocean warming hotspots’—have been identified, impacting geophysical and biogeochemical dynamics of local ecosystems. Here, we aim to characterize the variability of sea surface temperature (SST) fronts in the southeast and southwest Australia hotspots. Using a histogram frontal detection method, we derived fronts from AVHRR-only and Multi-sensor 6-day SST composites on a 0.02 × 0.02 grid between January 1993 and December 2019. Our results indicate that frontal frequency and frontal density have increased in both regions in the past three decades, by around 0.2–0.3%. In addition, both regions exhibit higher frequency and density of fronts in austral winter and fewer in austral summer. Our calculations show that changes in frontal frequency/density show some relationship to El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole. Changes in frontal activity could strongly impact local ocean biogeochemistry and marine ecosystems. A better understanding changing fronts in hotspots will help predict and manage future changes in regional oceans to warming.

Nonstationarity in the NAO–Gulf Stream SST Front Interaction

Abstract The interaction between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the latitudinal shifts of the Gulf Stream sea surface temperature front (GSF) has been the subject of extensive investigations. There are indications of nonstationarity in this interaction, but differences in the methodologies used in previous studies make it difficult to draw consistent conclusions. Furthermore, there is a lack of consensus on the key mechanisms underlying the response of the GSF to the NAO. This study assesses the possible nonstationarity in the NAO–GSF interaction and the mechanisms underlying this interaction during 1950–2020, using reanalysis data. Results show that the NAO and GSF indices covary on the decadal time scale but only during 1972–2018. A secondary peak in the NAO–GSF covariability emerges on multiannual time scales but only during 2005–15. The nonstationarity in the decadal NAO–GSF covariability is also manifested in variations in their lead–lag relationship. Indeed, the NAO tends to lead the GSF shifts by 3 years during 1972–90 and by 2 years during 1990–2018. The response of the GSF to the NAO at the decadal time scale can be interpreted as the joint effect of the fast response of wind-driven oceanic circulation, the response of deep oceanic circulation, and the propagation of Rossby waves. However, there is evidence of Rossby wave propagation only during 1972–90. Here it is suggested that the nonstationarity of Rossby wave propagation caused the time lag between the NAO and the GSF shifts on the decadal time scale to differ between the two time periods.

Automated ocean front feature mapping using Sentinel-1 with examples from the Gulf Stream

ABSTRACT This study assessed the ability of Sentinel-1 radial velocity (RVL) products to mark the position of ocean current front features, using the Gulf Stream (GS) as a case study. RVL-derived front features were compared to fronts derived from Multi-scale Ultra-high Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (MURSST) data. A ridge filter was used to find fronts in both the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and RVL data, and the similarity between each pair of fronts was measured using the discrete Hausdorff Distance (HD) and Mean Hausdorff Distance (MHD). Front features were correctly identified in concurrent SST and RVL data pairs in 65% of cases. The automatic front extraction sometimes failed by misclassifying an eddy or similar ocean feature as the ocean current in either the RVL or SST image, and sometimes failed to extract the entire length of the front visible within the image. SST and RVL fronts were classified manually to determine the success rate of the automatic front extraction, and to exclude front extraction errors from further analysis. The results demonstrated that RVL products were effective at determining the location of ocean fronts where the angle between the front’s normal vector and the sensor’s azimuthal heading is less than ~ 40°. A mean HD of 25.5 km and a mean MHD of 10.8 km was calculated for all front pairs in the study area.

European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years

Abstract. Amplified Arctic ice loss in recent decades has been linked to the increased occurrence of extreme mid-latitude weather. The underlying mechanisms remain elusive, however. One potential link occurs through the ocean as the loss of sea ice and glacial ice leads to increased freshwater fluxes into the ocean. Thus, in this study, we examine the link between North Atlantic freshwater anomalies and European summer weather. Combining a comprehensive set of observational products, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies are associated with a sharper sea surface temperature front between the subpolar and the subtropical North Atlantic in winter, an increased atmospheric instability above the sea surface temperature front, and a large-scale atmospheric circulation that induces a northward shift in the North Atlantic Current, strengthening the sea surface temperature front. In the following summer, the lower-tropospheric winds are deflected northward along the enhanced sea surface temperature front and the European coastline, forming part of a large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly that is associated with warmer and drier weather over Europe. The identified statistical links are significant on timescales from years to decades and indicate an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance, with the exact regions and amplitudes of the warm and dry weather anomalies over Europe being sensitive to the location, strength, and extent of North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in the preceding winter.

Potential of dynamic ocean management strategies for western Pacific leatherback sea turtle bycatch mitigation in New Zealand

Western Pacific leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) are a priority bycatch mitigation concern due to the projected extinction of the population before the end of the 21st century. The species regularly occurs as bycatch in gillnet and surface longline fisheries. Here, we explore the potential for dynamic ocean management in an emerging hotspot of leatherback sea turtle bycatch in the New Zealand pelagic longline fishery. We compared spatial areas of different sizes built from single oceanographic covariates as well as built from a composite risk surface developed through ensemble random forests. We found that, individually, the Okubo–Weiss parameter, sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, SST, moon phase, and distance to the SST front were important oceanographic covariates for leatherback sea turtle bycatch. However, the spatial areas built from the composite risk surface were the most effective at discriminating sets with and without bycatch across a range of risk cutoffs. When we also considered implementation metrics of spatial area and coherence as part of performance, the area derived from the composite risk surface with a risk of interaction per set greater than 52% performed best. This spatial area was ephemeral, occurring 1 or 2 weeks each year, and localized, occurring along the north coast of East Cape in the North Island of New Zealand. The apparent presence of discrete spatial areas with elevated risk may be useful to inform future management in the area. Considering implementation metrics in defining utility was useful for identifying tradeoffs between the total size and the underlying covariates delineating a spatial area. As such, we recommend these types of metrics to be included when designing spatial bycatch mitigation strategies elsewhere.

Atmospheric responses to the interannual variability of sea surface temperature front in the summertime Southern Ocean

AbstractAir–sea interactions in mid-latitudes and their climatic effects have long been a research focus. However, the influence of the variability of the Southern Oceanic Front (SOF) on atmospheric processes at interannual timescales remains somewhat ambiguous from existing studies. Using reanalysis data, our findings reveal that the SOF reaches its maximum intensity during the austral summer, characterized by pronounced interannual variability and an insignificant trend. On the one hand, an enhanced SOF intensifies the meridional temperature gradient and atmospheric baroclinicity, accompanied by increased local and downstream baroclinic energy conversion. This amplifies storm track activities in both the lower and upper troposphere. On the other hand, the atmospheric circulation in mid- and high-latitudes exhibits an equivalent barotropic response. This is attributed to the feedback of storm tracks on the mean flow, dominated by the transient eddy vorticity forcing. Moreover, we compare the relative contributions of the South Indian Oceanic Front (SIOF) and South Atlantic Oceanic Front (SAOF) variability to storm track and atmospheric circulation. Results indicate that the SIOF variability dominates the downstream development of storm track response and modulates the anomalous atmospheric circulation around the Antarctic, while the SAOF variability produces only a limited local atmospheric response.

Scalable Feature Extraction and Tracking (SCAFET): a general framework for feature extraction from large climate data sets

Abstract. This study describes a generalized computational mathematical framework, Scalable Feature Extraction and Tracking (SCAFET), that extracts and tracks features from large climate data sets. SCAFET utilizes novel shape-based metrics that can identify and compare features from different mean states, data sets, and between distinct regions. Features of interest such as atmospheric rivers, tropical and extratropical cyclones, and jet streams are extracted by segmenting the data based on a scale-independent bounded variable called the shape index (SI). The SI gives a quantitative measurement of the local geometric shape of the field with respect to its surroundings. Compared to other widely used frameworks in feature detection, SCAFET does not use a posteriori assumptions about the climate model or mean state to extract features of interest and levelize the comparison between different models and scenarios. To demonstrate the capabilities of the method, we illustrate the detection of atmospheric rivers, tropical and extratropical cyclones, sea surface temperature fronts, and jet streams. Cyclones and atmospheric rivers are extracted to show how the algorithm identifies and tracks both the nodes and areas from climate data sets. The extraction of sea surface temperature fronts exemplifies how SCAFET effectively handles curvilinear grids. Last, jet streams are extracted to demonstrate how the algorithm can also detect three-dimensional features. As a generalized framework, SCAFET can be implemented to extract and track many weather and climate features across scales, grids, and dimensions.

The wave-age-dependent stress parameterisation (WASP) for momentum and heat turbulent fluxes at sea in SURFEX v8.1

Abstract. A widely applicable parameterisation of turbulent heat and momentum fluxes at sea has been developed for the SURFEX v8.1 surface model. This wave-age-dependent stress parameterisation (WASP) combines a close fit to available in situ observations at sea up to wind speed of 60 m s−1 with the possibility of activating the impact of wave growth on the wind stress. It aims in particular at representing the effect of surface processes that depend on the surface wind according to the state of the art. It can be used with the different atmospheric models coupled with the surface model SURFEX, including the CNRM-CM climate model, the operational (numerical weather prediction) systems in use at Météo-France, and the research model Meso-NH. Designed to be used in coupled or forced mode with a wave model, it can also be used in an atmosphere-only configuration. It has been validated and tested in several case studies covering different surface conditions known to be sensitive to the representation of surface turbulent fluxes: (i) the impact of a sea surface temperature (SST) front on low-level flow by weak wind, (ii) the simulation of a Mediterranean heavy precipitating event where waves are known to influence the low-level wind and displace precipitation, (iii) several tropical cyclones, and (iv) a climate run over 35 years. It shows skills comparable to or better than the different parameterisations in use in SURFEX v8.1 so far.

Multiple ocean parameter-based potential fishing zone (PFZ) location generation and validation in the Western Bay of Bengal.

A new conceptual framework based on satellite data, including chlorophyll (CHL), sea surface temperature (SST) fronts, relative winds, current vectors, Ekman transport, and eddies, has been developed to identify potential fishing zones (PFZ) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). The framework aims to provide persistent forecasts, even under cloudy conditions, based on feature propagation. The validation of the PFZ was carried out using fish catch data collected by the Fishery Survey of India (FSI) between 2016 and 2018. Hooking rates (HR) from longlines and catch per unit effort (CPUE) from trawl nets were used to analyse the data points in hook rate categories (1.0-3.0 and > 3.0) and CPUE categories (50-100 kg and > 100 kg) and interpret them with the PFZ maps. The analysis showed that the high fish catch locations were consistent with persisting features in the BoB, such as high chlorophyll patches, SST fronts, and cyclonic eddies. The high fish catch locations based on hook rate and high CPUE were found to be collocated with the high chlorophyll persisting features and thermal gradients in the BoB. The regression analysis shows that availability of the food (CHL) had the strongest correlation with fish catch, followed by the comfort condition (fronts and eddies).

Global trends of fronts and chlorophyll in a warming ocean

Ocean fronts affect phytoplankton and higher trophic levels, including commercially important fisheries. As the oceans warm, uncertainty remains around the trends in fronts. Here we examine changes in sea surface temperature fronts (frequency, density, and intensity) and the concentration of chlorophyll, over recent satellite records (2003 – 2020) in ocean warming hotspots - areas that are warming faster than other parts of the ocean. Commonalities exist across hotspots with comparable dynamics. Most equatorial and subtropical gyre hotspots experienced a decline in frontal activity (frequency, density, strength) and chlorophyll concentration, while in high-latitude hotspots, frontal activity and chlorophyll concentration mostly increased. Continued warming may accentuate the impacts, changing both total biomass and the distribution of marine species. Areas with changing fronts and phytoplankton also correspond to areas of important global fish catch, highlighting the potential societal significance of these changes in the context of climate change.

The Gulf Stream Front Amplifies Large-Scale SST Feedback to the Atmosphere in North Atlantic Winter

The Gulf Stream (GS) ocean front releases intense moisture and heat to the atmosphere and regulates storm tracks and zonal jets in winter. The large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central North Atlantic provides important feedback to the atmosphere in winter, but the role played in this feedback by the GS front inside the SST anomaly has not been extensively studied. In this study, two sets of ensemble experiments were conducted using a global community atmosphere model forced by SST in boreal winters from 2000 to 2013. The regional averaged SST and its variation in the experiments were identical, with the only difference being the strength of the SST front in the GS region. The large-scale SST anomaly in the central North Atlantic in our model provides feedback to the atmosphere and excites a wave train that extends across Eurasia. With the inclusion of the strong GS front, the first center of the wave train in the North Atlantic is strengthened by approximately 40%, and the wave activity flux toward downstream is highly intensified. When the large-scale SST anomaly is combined with a strong GS front, greatly increased water vapor is released from the GS region, resulting in a 50% increase in moisture transport toward Western Europe. In this scenario, precipitation and diabatic heating both increase greatly on the western Scandinavian Peninsula. With the release of deep diabatic heating, a strong upward wave activity flux is triggered, and the wave train excited by the large-scale SST variation is significantly intensified. These findings suggest that the strong SST front in the large-scale SST anomaly in the central North Atlantic significantly amplifies its feedback to the atmosphere in winter.

Local-scale circulation associated with enhanced poleward moisture transport for Meiyu-Baiu heavy rainfall over western Japan

Heavy rainfall events in western Japan during early July have become more frequent, yet the underlying mechanism behind this trend during the late stage of the Meiyu-Baiu rainy season remains unclear. Our long-term analysis of short-duration events revealed that a quasi-stationary Rossby wave train enhances the poleward transport of moisture from the western Pacific, contributing to the frequent occurrence of heavy rainfall events over western Japan. The local-scale circulation over the East China Sea plays a substantial role in producing this quasi-stationary Rossby wave train, which is closely linked to enhanced deep convection over the Kuroshio warm current, characterized by a distinct sea surface temperature (SST) front. The coarse resolution of both the model and SST data may hinder the ability of climate simulations to capture the local-scale circulation, underscoring the importance of quasi-stationary atmospheric circulation for a better understanding of heavy rainfall events through poleward moisture transport.

Meridional Variation of the Mascarene High and Atmospheric Transient Eddy Dynamical Forcing over the Southern Indian Ocean in Austral Winter

Abstract This study reveals a close relation between the Mascarene high (MH), atmospheric transient eddies (hereafter transient eddies or eddies for short), and the sea surface temperature (SST) front over the southern Indian Ocean in austral winter. Climatologically, the subpolar westerly jet couples well with transient eddies via eddy–mean flow interaction and the anticyclonic vorticity to its north helps with anchoring the MH. On the interannual time scale, the MH exhibits a dominant meridional variation accompanied by intensity variability. When the MH moves poleward and intensifies, positive quasi-barotropic geopotential height anomalies associated with a warm temperature feature the southern flank of MH. As a result of the modified mean temperature gradient, the subpolar jet and transient eddies’ activity are enhanced near the jet exit; in contrast, the subtropical westerly jet and eddies are weakened over the jet entrance, mainly via the baroclinic energy conversion. As feedback, the anomalous transient eddies can trigger the poleward shift of MH by diverging the extended Eliassen–Palm (E-P) flux from subpolar to subtropical region and thus the intensification of subpolar jet and weakness of subtropical jet. Such positive feedback between the meridional variation of MH and transient eddies could be attributed to the underlying SST anomalies. Early SST warming appears over the southwestern Indian Ocean 3 months prior and shifts the Agulhas SST front poleward. The poleward Agulhas SST front could further induce a southward displacement of the activity of transient eddies by changing the low-level atmospheric baroclinicity. Hence, the SST anomalies over the southern Indian Ocean may trigger the meridional variation of MH via the positive eddies–mean flow feedback.

Effective generation mechanisms of tropical instability waves as represented by high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean prediction experiments

Cusp-shaped fluctuations of the sea surface temperature (SST) front in the tropical Pacific, now known as tropical instability waves (TIWs), were discovered by remote sensing in the 1970s. Their discovery was followed by both theoretical and analytical studies, which, along with in situ observations, identified several possible generation mechanisms. Although modeling studies have shown that TIWs strongly influence the heat budget, their influence on local variations of realistically initialized predictions is not yet understood. We here evaluate a series of medium-range (up to ~ 10 days) coupled atmosphere–ocean predictions by a coupled model with different horizontal resolutions. Observational SST, surface wind stress, heat flux, and pressure data showed that representation of temporally and spatially local variations was improved by resolving fine-scale SST variations around the initialized coarse-scale SST front fluctuations of TIWs. Our study thus demonstrates the advantage of using high-resolution coupled models for medium-range predictions. In addition, analysis of TIW energetics showed two dominant sources of energy to anticyclonic eddies: barotropic instability between equatorial zonal currents and baroclinic instability due to intense density fronts. In turn, the eddy circulation strengthened both instabilities in the resolved simulations. This revealed feedback process refines our understanding of the generation mechanisms of TIWs.

Comparison of FY-4A/AGRI SST with Himawari-8/AHI and In Situ SST

The Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) satellite is a new-generation geostationary meteorological satellite developed by China. The advanced geosynchronous radiation imager (AGRI), one of the key payloads onboard FY-4A, can monitor sea surface temperature (SST). This paper compares FY-4A/AGRI SST with in situ and Himawari-8/advanced Himawari imager (AHI) SST. The study area spans 30°E–180°E, 60°S–60°N, and the study period is from January 2019 to December 2021. The matching time window of the three data is 30 min, and the space window is 0.1°. The quality control criterion is to select all clear sky and well-distributed matchups within the study period, removing the influence of SST fronts. The results of the difference between FY-4A/AGRI and in situ SST show a bias of −0.12 °C, median of −0.05 °C, standard deviation (STD) of 0.76 °C, robust standard deviation (RSD) of 0.68 °C, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.77 °C for daytime and a bias of 0.00 °C, median of 0.05 °C, STD of 0.78 °C, RSD of 0.72 °C, and RMSE of 0.78 °C for nighttime. The results of the difference between FY-4A/AGRI SST and Himawari-8/AHI SST show a bias of 0.04 °C, median of 0.10 °C, STD of 0.78 °C, RSD of 0.70 °C, and RMSE of 0.78 °C for daytime and the bias of 0.30 °C, median of 0.34 °C, STD of 0.81 °C, RSD of 0.76 °C, and RMSE of 0.86 °C for nighttime. The three-way error analysis also indicates a relatively larger error of AGRI SST. Regarding timescale, the bias and STD of FY-4A/AGRI SST show no seasonal correlation, but FY-4A/AGRI SST has a noticeable bias jump in the study period. Regarding spatial scale, FY-4A/AGRI SST shows negative bias at the edge of the AGRI SST coverage in the Pacific region near 160°E longitude and positive bias in high latitudes of the southern hemisphere. The accuracy of FY-4A/AGRI SST depends on the satellite zenith angle and water vapor. Further research on the FY-4A/AGRI SST retrieval algorithm accounting for the variability of water vapor will be conducted.

Drivers of Physical and Biological Frontal Variability in the Northern California Current System

AbstractOceanic fronts mark the boundary between two water masses and are often sites of complex bio‐physical processes and multi‐trophic level interactions, making them particularly important features in marine ecosystems. As global climate change induces multi‐scale shifts in the driving physical mechanisms of fronts, spatiotemporal tracking of frontal variability can aid in efforts to understand the downstream effects on marine biodiversity and ecosystem structure. Here we focus on fronts within the dynamic northern extent of the California Current System (NCC). We derived mesoscale sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll‐a (chl‐a) fronts across the NCC region from 4‐km MODIS‐Aqua L3 daily fields over 2003–2019. Mesoscale physical (SST) and biological (chl‐a) fronts were often adjacent and coherent in their seasonal and interannual occurrence frequencies, but were spatially decoupled. SST fronts were most frequent and broadly distributed offshore while chl‐a fronts mostly occurred along the continental shelf break, particularly from Vancouver Island to central Oregon. Additionally, we employed a standardized multiple linear regression analysis to quantify the relative influence of local‐ and basin‐scale processes on frontal variability in the NCC. Local wind stress and wind stress curl variability were the most influential drivers of fronts over the shelf, while basin‐scale climate variability (i.e., climate oscillations) significantly drove frontal occurrences along the shelf break and offshore. Given predictions in the intensification of coastal upwelling in systems such as the NCC, our results indicate that oceanic response to climate change driven atmospheric variability will significantly impact the NCC marine ecosystem on the mesoscale.

MCSTNet: a memory-contextual spatiotemporal transfer network for prediction of SST sequences and fronts with remote sensing data

Ocean fronts are a response to the variabilities of marine hydrographic elements and are an important mesoscale ocean phenomenon, playing a significant role in fish farming and fishing, sea-air exchange, marine environmental protection, etc. The horizontal gradients of sea surface temperature (SST) are frequently applied to reveal ocean fronts. Up to now, existing spatiotemporal prediction approaches have suffered from low prediction precision and poor prediction quality for non-stationary data, particularly for long-term prediction. It is a challenging task for medium- and long-term fine-grained prediction for SST sequences and fronts in oceanographic research. In this study, SST sequences and fronts are predicted for future variation trends based on continuous mean daily remote sensing satellite of SST data. To enhance the precision of the predicted SST sequences and fronts, this paper proposes a novel memory-contextual spatiotemporal transfer network (MCSTNet) for SST sequence and front predictions. MCSTNet involves three components: the encoder-decoder structure, a time transfer module, and a memory-contextual module. The encoder-decoder structure is used to extract the rich contextual and semantic information in SST sequences and frontal structures from the SST data. The time transfer module is applied to transfer temporal information and fuse low-level, fine-grained temporal information with high-level semantic information to improve medium- and long-term prediction precision. And the memory-contextual module is employed to fuse low-level, spatiotemporal information with high-level semantic information to enhance short-term prediction precision. In the training process, mean squared error (MSE) loss and contextual loss are combined to jointly guide the training of MCSTNet. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MCSTNet predicts more authentic and reasonable SST sequences and fronts than the state-of-the-art (SOTA) models on the SST data.

Low-frequency variability enhancement of the midlatitude climate in an eddy-resolving coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Part I: anatomy

This study investigated the coupling of the wind-driven ocean gyres with the atmospheric westerly jet using an idealised, eddy-resolving, coupled model. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of the low-pass filtered data showed that the ocean gyre variability is dominated by meridional shifts of the western boundary current extension (WBCE) and changes in the strength of the subtropical inertial recirculation zone. On the other hand, the atmospheric potential vorticity (PV) variability is dominated by the growth of standing Rossby wave patterns, while its pressure variability is dominated by a zonally-asymmetric meridional shift of the atmospheric jet. Damping sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the atmosphere was shown to weaken its PV variability and reduce the zonal asymmetry of the jet-shift mode. Singular value decompositions revealed a positive feedback between meridional shifts of the WBCE and the growth of standing Rossby wave disturbances in the atmospheric jet. The atmosphere’s response is controlled by shifts in the meridional eddy heat flux over the SST front which triggers the growth of baroclinic instabilities. This instability growth eventually leads to a large-scale, barotropic pressure response over the eastern ocean basin, or an aforementioned meridional shift of the atmospheric jet. Reduction in the atmospheric resolution inhibits the ability of atmospheric eddies to resolve length scales associated with meridional shifts of the SST front and WBCE. The lack of resolution consequently weakens the influence of ocean gyre variability on the atmospheric jet and reduces the strength of the positive feedback.