Sea Level Anomaly Variability Research Articles

Exploring steric sea level variability in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean: a three-decade study (1993–2022)

Sea level rise (SLR) poses a significant threat to coastal regions worldwide, particularly affecting over 60 million people living below 10 m above sea level along the African coast. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal trends of sea level anomaly (SLA) and its components (thermosteric, halosteric and ocean mass) in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean (ETAO) from 1993 to 2022. The SLA trend for the ETAO, derived from satellite altimetry, is 3.52 ± 0.47 mm/year, similar to the global average of 3.56 ± 0.67 mm/year. Of the three upwelling regions, the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) shows the highest regional trend of 3.42 ± 0.12 mm/year. Using the ARMORD3D dataset, a positive thermosteric sea level trend of 0.88 ± 0.04 mm/year is observed, particularly in the equatorial and southern Atlantic regions. The steric component drives the interannual SLA variability, while the ocean mass component dominates the long-term trends, as confirmed by the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions for 2002–2022. For those two decades, the total SLR from altimetry amounts to 3.80 ± 0.8 mm/year, whilst the steric component is reduced to only 0.19 ± 0.05 mm/year, leaving a residual increase in the ETAO of 3.69 ± 0.5 mm/year. The independent mass change from GRACE amounts to 2.78 ± 0.6 mm/year for this region, which just closes the sea level budget within present uncertainty levels. Spatial analysis of the steric components indicates a warming along the equatorial African coast including the GoG and a freshening near Angola. Strong correlations with regional climate factors, particularly the Tropical South Atlantic Index, highlight the influence of persistent climate modes. These findings underscore the urgent need for mitigation and adaptation strategies to SLR in the ETAO, especially for densely populated coastal communities.

Sea-level trends and variability along the coast of Vietnam over 2002–2018: Insights from the X-TRACK/ALES altimetry dataset and coastal tide gauges

The changes in coastal sea levels are now considered a significant concern for densely-populated coastal regions such as Vietnam, which hosts a long coastline and two large deltaic areas. In this study, we used high-resolution (20-Hz) altimetry data from the X-TRACK/ALES product to investigate the trends and variability of sea-level anomalies (SLAs) along the Vietnam coast from 2002 to 2018. We conducted comparisons of SLAs from X-TRACK/ALES with SLAs from four coastal tide gauges, and the results present a good root mean square error (0.03 m on average) and good statistically significant correlation (for p < 0.05) with an average value of 0.66. There is an exception for the Quy Nhon site (r ∼ 0.5) as its closest altimetry points lie in the open ocean. Regarding trend calculations, the tide gauge sites exhibit two-to-three times larger trends than altimetry points, indicating a significant deviation from the coast to the open ocean. We then examined the contribution of various forcing factors by stepwise regression analysis for the 2002 – 2018 and 2008–2018 periods. The stepwise model can explain the observed data in the latter period (about 63 % on average). As local factors, SST and meridional wind stress appear important, whereas PDO and ENSO are significant as remote factors, particularly at the southern sites. However, we could not find the best common forcing factors for all sites suggesting the inconsistent mechanisms causing sea-level variability along the Vietnam coast. Our study demonstrates complicated regional sea-level variability and emphasizes the benefit of high-resolution altimetry data in studying dynamic coastal regions.

The Identification and Prediction of Mesoscale Eddy Variation via Memory in Memory With Scheduled Sampling for Sea Level Anomaly

Ocean mesoscale eddies are ubiquitous in world ocean and account for 90% oceanic kinetic energy, which dominate the upper ocean flow field. Accurately predicting the variation of ocean mesoscale eddies is the key to understand the oceanic flow field and circulation system. In this article, we propose to make an initial attempt to explore spatio-temporal predictability of mesoscale eddies, employing deep learning architecture, which primarily establishes Memory In Memory (MIM) for sea level anomaly (SLA) prediction, combined with the existing mesoscale eddy detection. Oriented to the western Pacific ocean (125°−137.5°E and 15°−27.5°N), we quantitatively investigate the historic daily SLA variability at a 0.25° spatial resolution from 2000 to 2018, derived by satellite altimetry. We develop the enhanced MIM prediction strategies, equipped with Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and spatial attention module, in a scheduled sampling manner, which overcomes the gradient vanishing and complements to strengthen spatio-temporal features for long-term dependencies. At the early stage, the real value SLA input guides the model training process for initialization, while the scheduled sampling intentionally feeds the newly predicted value, to resolve the distribution inconsistency of inference. It has been demonstrated in our experiment results that our proposed prediction scheme outperformed the state-of-art approaches for SLA time series, with MAPE, RMSE of the 14-day prediction duration, respectively, 5.1%, 0.023 m on average, even up to 4.6%, 0.018 m for the effective sub-regions, compared to 19.8%, 0.086 m in ConvLSTM and 8.3%, 0.040 m in original MIM, which greatly facilitated the mesoscale eddy prediction. This proposed scheme will be beneficial to understand of the underlying dynamical mechanism behind the predictability of mesoscale eddies in the future, and help the deployment of ARGO, glider, AUV and other observational platforms.

Steric and atmospheric contributions to interannual sea level variability in the eastern mediterranean sea over 1993–2019

Sea level trends and their forcing over the eastern Mediterranean basin are investigated by using 27 years (1993–2019) of gridded sea level anomalies (SLA) derived from satellite altimetry and 9 tide gauge stations, along with sea surface temperature (SST) and temperature and salinity profiles. The contributions of atmospheric (wind and pressure) and steric components to the interannual variability of total SLA were evaluated. The thermosteric component represents the major contributor to the linear trend and was positive over most of the eastern Mediterranean, with a spatially averaged trend of 2.13±0.41 mm/year, accounting for 69% of the total sea level trend (3.1±0.61 mm/year). In contrast, the halosteric effect has a negative contribution to the steric SLA, with a mean trend of -0.75±0.19 mm/year. The atmospheric component trend was much lower at 0.32±0.24 mm/year. The interannual variability of SLA accounts for about 36% of overall sea level variability. Steric and atmospheric contributions to the interannual variability of sea level in the eastern Mediterranean account for about 52% and 18%, respectively. The strongest interannual variability and trends in SLA were observed over the basin's main recurrent gyres, with the maximum positive trend obtained over the Mersa–Matruh and Cyprus gyres, as well as the North Shikmona eddy, and maximum negative trend over the Ierapetra gyre. Over the study period, all tide gauges showed a positive and statistically significant trend, ranging from 1.47±0.77 to 5.79±1.32 mm/year after applying glacial isostatic adjustment and atmospheric correction, and were in good agreement with reconstructed steric sea level data.

Nadir altimetry Vis-à-Vis swath altimetry: A study in the context of SWOT mission for the Bay of Bengal

Conventional nadir looking altimeters make along track measurements on a line and mapped sea level anomaly (SLA) information is obtained using a combination of several such altimeters (Jason, SARAL, Cryosat etc.). Mapping techniques, in general, introduce a lot of uncertainties in sea level representation and sub-mesoscale variability. Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, based on radar interferometry, will measure SLA along wide swath thus providing detailed ocean information. This study aims to evaluate the advantages of SWOT measurements over nadir looking altimeters by making use of SWOT-simulator tool in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region. Although, BoB is a small basin but interestingly it is full of mesoscale and sub-mesoscale features. The study performs several sensitivity experiments to allow a comparison of gridded SLA product from SWOT with the product from a constellation of nadir altimeters. Space-time scales for mapping the SLA from SWOT were obtained by performing a series of sensitivity experiments involving different spatial resolutions and temporal sampling. Sensitivity to different type of errors on the quality of mapped SLA fields from nadir-altimeters and SWOT is also carried out. In case of SWOT, mapped SLA fields generated using correlated noise were better as compared to the maps that were generated by making an assumption that the noise is uncorrelated. It is found that gridded SLA from SWOT have less error in the eddy dominant (high variability) regions as compared to the mapped SLA field from nadir altimeters, which perform better in the regions of low SLA variability. Apart from this, the position and strength of mesoscale eddies is well resolved by SWOT-mapped SLA fields as compared to nadir-altimeter mapped fields.

A sea-level monopole in the equatorial Indian Ocean

In this study, we show the relationship between sea-level anomalies (SLA) and upper-ocean parameters in the Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO). This work also focuses on the variability of SLA obtained from satellite altimeter data in different spatial and temporal scales and its relationship with computed ocean heat content (OHC), dynamic height (DH), and thermocline depth (20 °C isotherm: D20) during 1993–2015. SLA showed low Pearson’s correlation coefficient (CC) with upper-ocean parameters over central EIO resembling a “Monopole” pattern. The Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (ARGO) in situ profile data in the central EIO also confirmed this. SLA over this monopole showed low correlations with all parameters as compared with eastern and western EIO. These findings show a clear signature of a persisting sea-level monopole in the central EIO. Oscillating SLA over western and eastern EIO during summer and winter monsoon months is found to be responsible for locking this monopole in the central EIO. Both SLA and OHC increased in EIO during 2006–2015 compared with 1993–2005. The month of January showed different east–west trends at different times. This trend during 1993–2015 is neutral, but it shifted from negative during 1993–2005 to positive during 2006–2015.

Sea level anomalies using altimetry, model and tide gauges along the African coasts in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean: Inter-comparison and temporal variability

Abstract Because of sparse in situ measurements, the use of altimeter and ocean models are currently the only options to understand the coastal variability of sea level anomalies (SLA) near the African coasts of the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean (ETAO: 35°S–25°N; 25°W–African coasts). In this study, three SLA products derived from altimetry (X-TRACK and CMEMS) and from a regional ocean model (NEMO) are validated near the coast using the 14 tide gauges (TGs) available in the region. Statistical analysis (correlation, standard deviation and root mean square) are performed to compare our three products with the TG. We then analyze the sub-seasonal to inter-annual variability of SLAs (i.e. from 20 days up to 2 years) over the period January 2008–December 2014. We found a very good agreement between altimetry, model and TGs near the coasts of Senegal (10°N–25°N) and Gulf of Guinea (10°S–10°N). This is not the case near the coast of Benguela (south of 10°S) and is mainly explained by the combined effects of the position of TGs (located in semi-enclosed bays), the geophysical corrections used in the computations of the SLA derived from altimetry (i.e. tide, dynamical atmospheric correction -DAC- and sea state bias -SSB-). In addition, the low spatial resolution of the CMEMS and model data do not allow a good description of the small scale oceanic and atmospheric variability, which dominates in the Benguela upwelling system. We then show, with all products, that the temporal variability of SLA is mainly seasonal (annual and semi-annual) throughout the ETAO region. The altimetry data also show some inter-annual (15–24 months) variability in the equatorial band, which can be related to equatorial Kelvin waves. This is less pronounced with the NEMO model and does not appear over the whole equatorial band. We show that high spatial resolution and improved altimetric geophysical corrections near the coast can each reduce near-shore data errors by up to 10%. However, despite these improvements, agreements between SLA products are still unsatisfactory in the Benguela region, suggesting that efforts need to be intensified on geophysical corrections and in increasing the temporal and spatial resolution of data near the coast. Moreover, there exist gaps in TG measurements, along the West African coast, especially in the Benguela region. The TG network should thus be completed.

Impacts of the mid-latitude westerlies anomaly on the decadal sea level variability east of China

The present analysis has revealed that both the altimetry and tide gauge records show a prominent sea level rise from 1993 to 2016 in the coastal seas east of China, including Bohai, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea (BYECS). The regional mean sea level rise rate for the BYECS continental shelf area is ~ 3.2 mm/year, which is close to the global mean (2.9 mm/year). Besides the rising trend, the BYECS sea level anomaly (SLA) also shows obvious interannual and decadal oscillation. It is found that the mid-latitude westerlies, rather than the steric height variability, are responsible for these oscillations. By analyzing the 67-year (1950–2016) hindcast outputs from an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model, a 14.2 years decadal period is found to dominate the BYECS SLA variability, and the decadal oscillation is positively correlated with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). The composite analysis and causality analysis demonstrate that during the positive phase of the NPGO, the mid-latitude westerlies decrease and a positive wind stress curl anomaly at the same latitude of the East China Sea’s Kuroshio occurs to the south of the westerlies. Consequently, the Kuroshio Current volume transport and sea surface height difference between the two sides of the Kuroshio decrease, that is, the sea level in the BYECS rises.

Decadal Sea Level Variability in the Pacific Ocean: Origins and Climate Mode Contributions

AbstractSea level changes within wide temporal–spatial scales have great influence on oceanic and atmospheric circulations. Efforts have been made to identify long-term sea level trend and regional sea level variations on different time scales. A nonuniform sea level rise in the tropical Pacific and the strengthening of the easterly trade winds from 1993 to 2012 have been widely reported. It is well documented that sea level in the tropical Pacific is associated with the typical climate modes. However, sea level change on interannual and decadal time scales still requires more research. In this study, the Pacific sea level anomaly (SLA) was decomposed into interannual and decadal time scales via an ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. The temporal–spatial features of the SLA variability in the Pacific were examined and were closely associated with climate variability modes. Moreover, decadal SLA oscillations in the Pacific Ocean were identified during 1993–2016, with the phase reversals around 2000, 2004, and 2012. In the tropical Pacific, large sea level variations in the western and central basin were a result of changes in the equatorial wind stress. Moreover, coherent decadal changes could also be seen in wind stress, sea surface temperature (SST), subtropical cells (STCs), and thermocline depth. Our work provided a new way to illustrate the interannual and decadal sea level variations in the Pacific Ocean and suggested a coupled atmosphere–ocean variability on a decadal time scale in the tropical region with two cycles from 1993 to 2016.

Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns

Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993–2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and temporal scales.

Interannual to decadal variation of spring sea level anomaly in the western South China Sea

Satellite observations of sea level anomalies (SLA) from January 1993 to December 2012 are used to investigate the interannual to decadal changes of the boreal spring high SLA in the western South China Sea (SCS) using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) method. We find that the SLA variability has two dominant modes. The Sea Level Changing Mode (SLCM) occurs mainly during La Nina years, with high SLA extension from west of Luzon to the eastern coast of Vietnam along the central basin of the SCS, and is likely induced by the increment of the ocean heat content. The Anticyclonic Eddy Mode (AEM) occurs mainly during El Nino years and appears to be triggered by the negative wind curl anomalies within the central SCS. In addition, the spring high SLA in the western SCS experienced a quasi-decadal change during 1993–2012; in other words, the AEM predominated during 1993–1998 and 2002–2005, while the La Nina-related SLCM prevailed during 1999–2001 and 2006–2012. Moreover, we suggest that the accelerated sea level rise in the SCS during 2005–2012 makes the SLCM the leading mode over the past two decades.

Properties of the Subantarctic Front and Polar Front from the skewness of sea level anomaly

The region of the Southern Ocean that encompasses the Subantarctic Front (SAF) to the north and the Polar Front (PF) to the south contains most of the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Here skewness of sea level anomaly (SLA) from 1992 to 2013 is coupled with a meandering Gaussian jetw model to estimate the mean position, meridional width, and the percent variance that each front contributes to total SLA variability. The SAF and PF have comparable widths (85 km) in the circumpolar average, but their widths differ significantly in the East Pacific Basin (85 and 60 km, respectively). Interannual variability in the positions of the SAF and PF are also estimated using annual subsets of the SLA data from 1993 to 2012. The PF position has enhanced variability near strong topographic features such as the Kerguelen Plateau, the Campbell Plateau east of New Zealand, and downstream of Drake Passage. Neither the SAF nor the PF showed a robust meridional trend over the 20 year period. The Southern Annular Mode was significantly correlated with basin-averaged SAF and PF positions in the East Pacific and with the PF south of Australia. A correlation between the PF and the basin-scale wind stress curl anomaly was also found in the western extratropical Pacific but not in other basins.

Intrinsic Variability of Sea Level from Global Ocean Simulations: Spatiotemporal Scales

AbstractIn high-resolution ocean general circulation models (OGCMs), as in process-oriented models, a substantial amount of interannual to decadal variability is generated spontaneously by oceanic nonlinearities: that is, without any variability in the atmospheric forcing at these time scales. The authors investigate the temporal and spatial scales at which this intrinsic oceanic variability has the strongest imprints on sea level anomalies (SLAs) using a ° global OGCM, by comparing a “hindcast” driven by the full range of atmospheric time scales with its counterpart forced by a repeated climatological atmospheric seasonal cycle. Outputs from both simulations are compared within distinct frequency–wavenumber bins. The fully forced hindcast is shown to reproduce the observed distribution and magnitude of low-frequency SLA variability very accurately. The small-scale (L &lt; 6°) SLA variance is, at all time scales, barely sensitive to atmospheric variability and is almost entirely of intrinsic origin. The high-frequency (mesoscale) part and the low-frequency part of this small-scale variability have almost identical geographical distributions, supporting the hypothesis of a nonlinear temporal inverse cascade spontaneously transferring kinetic energy from high to low frequencies. The large-scale (L &gt; 12°) low-frequency variability is mostly related to the atmospheric variability over most of the global ocean, but it is shown to remain largely intrinsic in three eddy-active regions: the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Compared to its ¼° predecessor, the authors’ ° OGCM is shown to yield a stronger intrinsic SLA variability, at both mesoscale and low frequencies.

Intra-seasonal variability of Pacific-origin sea level anomalies around the Philippine Archipelago

Intra-seasonal variability of sea level anomalies (SLAs) originated in the Pacific Ocean around the Philippine Archipelago was investigated using merged altimetry SLA measurements and eddy-resolving ocean model outputs. The results suggest the SLA signals from the tropical North Pacific propagate westward as baroclinic Rossby waves on an intra-seasonal time scale. Upon impinging the east coast of the Philippines, these Rossby wave signals transform into coastal trapped waves (CTWs), propagate clockwise along the coast of the Philippine Archipelago and enter into the eastern South China Sea (SCS) through the Sibutu Passage and Mindoro Strait. The SLA signals, however, cannot propagate anticlockwise and enter into the eastern SCS through the Luzon Strait. The intra-seasonal oceanic wave processes are clearly identified by the eddy-resolving model. The effect of along-shore wind forcing on the SLA signals appears insignificant when compared with the remote signals coming from the interior Pacific. While identified in the model simulation, future observations are needed to verify the intra-seasonal CTWs encircling the Philippine Archipelago.

Temporal variability of the Baltic Sea level based on satellite observations

The main objective of this paper is to determine what are the most important time scales of variability of the sea level in the open Baltic Sea. The study is based on the 7-day resolution multimission global gridded sea level anomalies (SLA) for years 1992–2012 distributed by AVISO. For comparison satellite-derived SLA from the North Sea and North Atlantic, coastal data from the Stockholm tide gauge, the NCEP meteorological data, and river runoff data from the Balt-HYPE model have been also analyzed. We have applied time series analysis algorithms (Bendat and Piersol, 2011). Supporting earlier research, our results show that the variability of the sea level in the open Baltic Sea is highly coherent with the sea level in the North Sea. We have found out that the annual peak is not well pronounced in the open Baltic Sea SLA spectrum, but the semiannual peak is the most prevailing. In contrast, the annual peak is significant in the North Sea SLA power spectrum. The coherence between the open Baltic Sea and the Stockholm SLA is high and the SLA variability in these two locations is in phase. The results of the cross-spectral analysis between the SLA in the Baltic Sea and meteorological parameters (wind stress magnitude, zonal and meridional wind stress components, and barometric pressure at sea level) show that coherence is highest with the zonal wind stress component. Coherence between the river runoff and the SLA in Stockholm is not significant.

Variability of the Atlantic off‐equatorial eastward currents during 1993–2010 using a synthetic method

We have developed, validated, and applied a synthetic method to monitor the off‐equatorial eastward currents in the central tropical Atlantic. This method combines high‐density expendable bathythermograph (XBT) temperature data along the AX08 transect with altimetric sea level anomalies (SLAs) to estimate dynamic height fields from which the mean properties of the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), the North Equatorial Undercurrent (NEUC) and the South Equatorial Undercurrent (SEUC), and their variability can be estimated on seasonal to interannual timescales. On seasonal to interannual timescales, the synthetic method is well suited for reconstructions of the NECC variability, reproduces the variability of the NEUC with considerable skill, and less efficiently describes variations of the SEUC, which is located in a region of low SLA variability. A positive correlation is found between interannual variations of the NECC transport and two indices based on an interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient and southeasterly wind stress in the central tropical Atlantic. The NEUC is correlated on interannual timescales with SSTs and meridional wind stress in the Gulf of Guinea and zonal equatorial wind stress. This study shows that both altimetry and XBT data can be effectively combined for near‐real‐time inference of the dynamic and thermodynamic properties of the tropical Atlantic current system.

Storm surges in the Singapore Strait due to winds in the South China Sea

Among the semi-enclosed basins of the world ocean, the South China Sea (SCS) is unique in its configuration as it lies under the main southwest-northeast pathway of the seasonal monsoons. The northeast (NE) monsoon (November–February) and southwest (SW) monsoon (June–August) dominate the large-scale sea level dynamics of the SCS. Sunda Shelf at the southwest part of SCS tends to amplify Sea Level Anomalies (SLAs) generated by winds over the sea. The entire region, bounded by Gulf of Thailand on the north, Karimata Strait on the south, east cost of Peninsular Malaysia on the west, and break of Sunda Shelf on the east, could experience positive or negative SLAs depending on the wind direction and speed. Strong sea level surges during NE monsoon, if coincide with spring tide, usually lead to coastal floods in the region. To understand the phenomena, we analyzed the wind-driven sea level anomalies focusing on Singapore Strait (SS), laying at the most southwest point of the region. An analysis of Tanjong Pagar tide gauge data in the SS, as well as satellite altimetry and reanalyzed wind in the region, reveals that the wind over central part of SCS is arguably the most important factor determining the observed variability of SLAs at hourly to monthly scales. Climatological SLAs in SS are found to be positive, and of the order of 30 cm during NE monsoon, but negative, and of the order of 20 cm during SW monsoon. The largest anomalies are associated with intensified winds during NE monsoon, with historical highs exceeding 50 cm. At the hourly and daily time-scales, SLA magnitude is correlated with the NE wind speed over central part of SCS with an average time lag of 36–42 h. An exact solution is derived by approximating the elongated SCS shape with one-dimensional two-step channel. The solution is utilized to derive simple model connecting SLAs in SS with the wind speeds over central part of SCS. Due to delay of sea level anomaly in SS with respect to the remote source at SCS, the simplified solutions could be used for storm surge forecast, with a lead time exceeding 1 day.

Sea Level Expression of Intrinsic and Forced Ocean Variabilities at Interannual Time Scales

Abstract This paper evaluates in a realistic context the local contributions of direct atmospheric forcing and intrinsic oceanic processes on interannual sea level anomalies (SLAs). A ¼° global ocean–sea ice general circulation model, driven over 47 yr by the full range of atmospheric time scales, is quantitatively assessed against altimetry and shown to reproduce most observed features of the interannual SLA variability from 1993 to 2004. Comparing this simulation with a second driven only by the climatological annual cycle reveals that the intrinsic part of the total interannual SLA variance exceeds 40% over half of the open-ocean area and exceeds 80% over one-fifth of it. This intrinsic contribution is particularly strong in eddy-active regions (more than 70%–80% in the Southern Ocean and western boundary current extensions) as predicted by idealized studies, as well as within the 20°–35° latitude bands. The atmosphere directly forces most of the interannual SLA variance at low latitudes and in most midlatitude eastern basins, in particular north of about 40°N in the Pacific. The interannual SLA variance is almost entirely due to intrinsic processes south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Indian Ocean sector, while half of this variance is forced by the atmosphere north of it. The same simulations were performed and analyzed at 2° resolution as well: switching to this laminar regime yields a comparable forced variability (large-scale distribution and magnitude) but almost suppresses the intrinsic variability. This likely explains why laminar ocean models largely underestimate the interannual SLA variance.

SLA–chlorophyll-a variability and covariability in the Algero-Provençal Basin (1997–2007) through combined use of EOF and wavelet analysis of satellite data

Data reduction and signal decomposition techniques have been applied to a large bio-physical remotely sensed dataset covering the decade 1997–2007. The aim was the estimation of the spatial (basin and sub-basin scales) and temporal (seasonal and interannual) variability of sea level anomalies and chlorophyll-a concentration in the Algero-Provencal Basin, as well as the study of their covariability. Empirical orthogonal functions, wavelet analysis, singular value decomposition and correlation maps have been successfully used to individuate the patterns of (co)variability of the investigated fields. The seasonal variability of the phytoplanktonic biomass is divided in two distinct modes, timewise and spacewise separated. Positive interannual events are related to anomalies in 1999 and 2005, while the main (negative) anomaly is that of summer 2003, associated to the European 2003 heatwave. The analysis of the sea level anomalies shows a minimum in the formation of anticyclonic Algerian eddies during that period. The largest anticorrelation between sea level anomalies and phytoplanktonic biomass is found in the central zone of the basin, suggesting a clear biological response to the shoaling/deepening of the isopycnae and so to the nutrient injection into the euphotic layer. The analysis suggests that the driver of the variability of the nutricline depth in this central area is the displacement (seasonal) of the North Balearic Front and the formation/action of the frontal eddies.

Variability in Solomon Sea circulation derived from altimeter sea level data

The Solomon Sea is a key region in the Pacific Ocean where equatorial and subtropical circulations are connected. The region exhibits the highest levels in sea level variability in the entire south tropical Pacific Ocean. Altimeter data was utilized to explore sea level and western boundary currents in this poorly understood portion of the ocean. Since the geography of the region is extremely intricate, with numerous islands and complex bathymetry, specifically reprocessed along-track data in addition to standard gridded data were utilized in this study. Sea level anomalies (SLA) in the Solomon Sea principally evolve at seasonal and interannual time scales. The annual cycle is phased by Rossby waves arriving in the Solomon Strait, whereas the interannual signature corresponds to the basin-scale ENSO mode. The highest SLA variability are concentrated in the eastern Solomon Sea, particularly at the mouth of the Solomon Strait, where they are associated with a high eddy kinetic energy signal that was particularly active during the phase transition during the 1997-1998 ENSO event. Track data appear especially helpful for documenting the fine structure of surface coastal currents. The annual variability of the boundary currents that emerged from altimetry compared quite well with the variability seen at the thermocline level, as based on numerical simulations. At interannual time scales, western boundary current transport anomalies counterbalance changes in western equatorial Pacific warm water volume, confirming the phasing of South Pacific western boundary currents to ENSO. Altimetry appears to be a valuable source of information for variability in low latitude western boundary currents and their associated transport in the South Pacific.