Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies Research Articles

The role of atmospheric conditions in the Antarctic sea ice extent summer minima

Abstract. Understanding the variability of Antarctic sea ice is still a challenge. After decades of modest growth, an unprecedented minimum in the sea ice extent (SIE) was registered in summer 2017, and, following years of anomalously low SIE, a new record was established in early 2022. These two memorable minima have received great attention as single cases, but a comprehensive analysis of summer SIE minima is currently lacking. Indeed, other similar events are present in the observational record, although they are minor compared to the most recent ones, and a full analysis of all summer SIE minima is essential to separate potential common drivers from event-specific dynamics in order to ultimately improve our understanding of the Antarctic sea ice and climate variability. In this work, we examine sea ice and atmospheric conditions during and before all summer SIE minima over the satellite period up to 2022. We use observations and reanalysis data and compare our main findings with results from an ocean–sea ice model (NEMO–LIM) driven by prescribed atmospheric fields from ERA5. Examining SIE and sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies, we find that the main contributors to the summer minima are the Ross and Weddell sectors. However, the two regions play different roles, and the variability of the Ross Sea explains most of the minima, with typical negative SIE anomalies about twice as large as the ones in the Weddell Sea. Furthermore, the distribution of SIC anomalies is also different: in the Weddell Sea, they exhibit a dipolar structure, with increased SIC next to the continent and decreased SIC at the sea ice margin, while the Ross Sea displays a more homogenous decrease. We also examine the role of wintertime sea ice conditions before the summer SIE minima and find mixed results depending on the period: the winter conditions are relevant in the most recent events, after 2017, but they are marginal for previous years. Next, we consider the influence of the atmosphere on the SIE minima, which is shown to play a major role: after analyzing the anomalous atmospheric circulation during the preceding spring, we find that different large-scale anomalies can lead to similar regional prevailing winds that drive the summer minima. Specifically, the SIE minima are generally associated with dominant northwesterly anomalous winds in the Weddell Sea, while a southwesterly anomalous flow prevails in the Ross Sea. Finally, we investigate the relative contribution of dynamic (e.g., ice transport) and thermodynamic (e.g., local melting) processes to the summer minima. Our results indicate that the exceptional sea ice loss in both the Ross and Weddell sectors is dominated at the large scale by thermodynamic processes, while dynamics are also present but with a minor role.

Large-Scale Climate Modes Drive Low-Frequency Regional Arctic Sea Ice Variability

Abstract Summer Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly but with superimposed variability on multiple time scales that introduces large uncertainties in projections of future sea ice loss. To better understand what drives at least part of this variability, we show how a simple linear model can link dominant modes of climate variability to low-frequency regional Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies. Focusing on September, we find skillful projections from global climate models (GCMs) from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) at lead times of 4–20 years, with up to 60% of observed low-frequency variability explained at a 5-yr lead time. The dominant driver of low-frequency SIC variability is the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) which is positively correlated with SIC anomalies in all regions up to a lead time of 15 years but with large uncertainty between GCMs and internal variability realization. The Niño-3.4 index and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation have better agreement between GCMs of being positively and negatively related, respectively, with low-frequency SIC anomalies for at least 10-yr lead times. The large variations between GCMs and between members within large ensembles indicate the diverse simulation of teleconnections between the tropics and Arctic sea ice and the dependence on the initial climate state. Further, the influence of the Niño-3.4 index was found to be sensitive to the background climate. Our results suggest that, based on the 2022 phases of dominant climate variability modes, enhanced loss of sea ice area across the Arctic is likely during the next decade. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to better understand the drivers of low-frequency variability of Arctic sea ice. Teasing out the complicated relationships within the climate system takes a large number of examples. Here, we use 42 of the latest generation of global climate models to construct a simple linear model based on dominant named climate features to predict regional low-frequency sea ice anomalies at a lead time of 2–20 years. In 2022, these modes of variability happen to be in the phases most conducive to low Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies. Given the context of the longer-term trend of sea ice loss due to global warming, our results suggest accelerated Arctic sea ice loss in the next decade.

Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies Using Spatiotemporal Clustering

The dynamic changes of sea ice exhibit spatial clustering, and this clustering has characteristics extending from its origin, through its development, and to its dissipation. Current research on sea ice change primarily focuses on spatiotemporal variation trends and remote correlation analysis, and lacks an analysis of spatiotemporal evolution characteristics. This study utilized monthly sea ice concentration (SIC) data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) for the period from 1979 to 2022, utilizing classical spatiotemporal clustering algorithms to analyze the clustering patterns and evolutionary characteristics of SIC anomalies in key Arctic regions. The results revealed that the central-western region of the Barents Sea was a critical area where SIC anomaly evolutionary behaviors were concentrated and persisted for longer durations. The relationship between the intensity and duration of SIC anomaly events was nonlinear. A positive correlation was observed for shorter durations, while a negative correlation was noted for longer durations. Anomalies predominantly occurred in December, with complex evolution happening in April and May of the following year, and concluded in July. Evolutionary state transitions mainly occurred in the Barents Sea. These transitions included shifts from the origin state in the northwestern margin to the dissipation state in the central-north Barents Sea, from the origin state in the central-north to the dissipation state in the central-south, and from the origin state in the northeastern to the dissipation state in the central-south Barents Sea and southeastern Kara Sea. Various evolutionary states were observed in the same area on the southwest edge of the Barents Sea. These findings provide insights into the evolutionary mechanism of sea ice anomalies.

The out‐of‐phase pattern of summer precipitation over northern China and the possible mechanisms

AbstractThis study explored the interannual characteristics of the out‐of‐phase pattern of summer precipitation over northern China during the past years, as well as the possible underlying mechanisms. The out‐of‐phase pattern is characterized by the positive precipitation anomaly in Northwest China (NWC) and the negative anomaly in North China (NC). Our analyses indicate that the variation of Asian westerly jet (AWJ) is found evidently associated with this out‐of‐phase pattern of summer precipitation. The meridional displacement of AWJ induces opposite trends in water vapour transport and circulation anomalies between NWC and NC, leading to the out‐of‐phase pattern. Further analyses suggest that the anomalies of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC), North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) can impact the variation of AWJ by triggering the Eurasian (EU), polar‐Eurasia (POL) and Pacific‐Japan (PJ) teleconnection patterns, respectively, which in turn modulate the formation of this pattern. The precipitation in NWC is primarily affected by the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific SST anomalies, whereas the precipitation in NC is notably influenced by both SST anomalies and the Arctic SIC anomaly. However, the role of SST anomalies on precipitation in NWC and NC exhibits an evident contrast, leading to the out‐of‐phase pattern of summer precipitation.

The relationship between Antarctic sea-ice extent change and the main modes of sea-ice variability in austral winter

Accompanying global warming, Antarctic sea-ice extent shows a somewhat increasing trend from 1979 to 2014, followed by an abrupt decrease after 2016. Our previous study examined the change of Antarctic sea-ice extent in austral summer, autumn and spring. In this study, we turn our attention to the austral winter, relating the main modes of sea-ice variability to sea-ice extent in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean. We find that the modes with the strongest correlation with the sea-ice extent are the third, first and first modes in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian sectors, respectively. Atmospheric circulation anomalies of zonal wavenumber three over the Southern Ocean, related to planetary wave trains induced by the SST anomalies over the south-western Pacific and the southern Indian oceans, can explain sea-ice concentration anomalies of the third mode in the Pacific sector through thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Sea-ice anomalies of the first modes in the Atlantic and Indian sectors result from atmospheric circulation anomalies of a positive and negative phases of the Southern Annular Mode, respectively. The anomalous Southern Annular Mode is also associated with wave trains over the Southern Ocean excited by SST anomalies over the southern Indian Ocean and the south-western Pacific Ocean. The relationship between SST anomalies and Antarctic sea-ice anomalies can provide a reference for the prediction of Antarctic sea-ice anomalies in austral winter on interannual and decadal timescales.

Strengthened impact of late autumn Arctic sea ice on Asian winter cold extremes after 1999/2000

Winter cold extremes (WCEs) frequently plague densely populated areas of Asia, leading to substantial economic losses and even fatalities. It has been found that the late autumn sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies in the northern (SICN) and southern Arctic (SICS) are significantly positively and negatively correlated with the occurrence frequency of WCE in Asia, respectively (Wang and Su 2024). Our study demonstrates that the impacts of SICN and SICS have strengthened after 1999/2000. Specifically, before 1999/2000, the influences of SICN and SICS on the Asian WCE (AWCE) were relatively weak, possibly related to the weak intensity of SICS and the limited correlation between SICN and SICS. After 1999/2000, the interannual variability of SICS became larger and anti-correlated with that of SICN, resulting in a stronger teleconnection between the Arctic SIC and AWCE. It is revealed that after 1999/2000, the greater loss of SICS modified atmospheric stability through changes in surface heat fluxes and surface upward longwave radiation fluxes. This alteration weakened the magnitudes of westerly winds and increased the frequency of blocking events over the northern Eurasian continent, leading directly to a higher occurrence of cold extremes in Asia. These interdecadal differences in the influence of Arctic SIC on AWCE may be associated with long-term climate change.

Joint influence of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and the Barents sea-ice concentration on the dipole pattern of Eurasian surface air temperature in March

In recent decades, an increase in the frequency of extreme events in early spring across Eurasia has resulted in significant impacts on crop yields and socio-economic development. However, the variations of March surface air temperature (SAT) over Eurasia and mechanisms are still unclear. This study aims to investigate the dominant mode of the March surface air temperature (SAT) over Eurasia during 1979–2022, and its relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC). The results reveal the prevalence of a dipole mode of the Eurasian SAT anomalies (SATAs) in March characterized by positive SATAs in northern (50°N–80°N) Eurasia and negative ones in southern (10°N–45°N) region. Further analyses demonstrate that this dipole mode of Eurasian SATAs shows significant relationships with a positive phase of the North Atlantic tripole SST anomalies (NAT SSTAs), as well as with the decline of Barents Sea SIC anomalies (SICAs). Associated with the NAT SSTAs and the Barents Sea SICAs during March, two Rossby wave trains propagate towards Eurasia through different ways, one is propagating eastwards from the mid-latitude of the North Atlantic to Eurasia, and another one spreads from the polar region to Eurasia. Modulated by these two wave trains, anomalous near-surface southwesterly (northeasterly) wind induces more (less) warm air towards northern Eurasia, while more (less) cloud emerges in southern Eurasia and causes less (more) solar radiation reaching southern Eurasia, leading to the dipole mode of the Eurasian SATAs in March. These results are further confirmed by numerical experiments from the version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model forced by the above mentioned SSTAs and SICAs.

Present‐Day Regional Antarctic Sea Ice Response to Extratropical Cyclones

AbstractBoth atmospheric warming and poleward moisture transport increase the likelihood of sea ice surface melt. In the Southern Hemisphere, short‐lived extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are responsible for a bulk of total heat and moisture transport toward high latitudes. Although these storms form ubiquitously in the midlatitudes, moisture availability and temperature characteristics vary by source region. In this study, we assess atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies associated with austral winter ETCs over different Antarctic regions using ERA5 reanalysis data. Between 1990 and 2019, we find a total of 514 ETCs, with greater storm frequency in the eastern hemisphere groups. Compared to the climatology, sea ice melts (grows) behind the warm (cold) front of each system and is negatively correlated with atmospheric poleward moisture transport, temperature, meridional winds, and sea surface temperature for all ETCs. We find that Bellingshausen storms move moisture and warm air furthest poleward over their lifespan. However, East Weddell and East Antarctic ETCs are responsible for greater absolute poleward moisture transport than Bellingshausen and Ross systems. More intense ETCs correspond to greater SIC through Day 1, suggesting that SIC impacts ETC strength, regardless of ETC region. From cyclogenesis to cyclolysis, sea ice extent declines underneath composite ETCs, trends are generally not significant. Overall, while sea ice response produced by ETC‐induced atmospheric and oceanic changes varies regionally, the long‐term impacts of ETCs on regional sea ice are negligible over the study period.

The seasonal Antarctic sea ice concentration anomalies related to the Atlantic Niño index

Antarctic sea ice concentration anomalies (ASICA) have been found to be linked to sea surface temperature anomalies in tropical oceans. However, it is not clear whether and how ASICA is linked to the Atlantic Niño mode (ANM). This study demonstrates a significant relationship between ASICA and ANM. The relationships vary by season, with a peak in austral winter and a secondary one in spring. Significant sea ice anomalies associated with a positive phase of ANM are mostly negative in austral winter and spring, and mostly positive in austral summer and autumn. This teleconnection is established by atmospheric wavetrains that are excited over the tropical southwestern Pacific and Indian Oceans and the southern Atlantic Oceans and propagate over the Southern Ocean. These wavetrains induce anomalous near-surface circulations, which generate dynamic and thermodynamic forcing on sea ice, resulting in the observed ASICA patterns. The absence of El Niño Southern Oscillation weakens the connection.

An observational study on the interactions between storm tracks and sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere

Using the lagged maximum covariance analysis (MCA), the present study investigates the interannual variability of the storm track in the Southern Hemisphere and the Antarctic sea ice throughout the year. The results show that the two are most tightly coupled in the austral cold seasons. Specifically, storm track anomalies in June and July are associated with a zonal dipole structure of the sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies in the western Hemisphere, with centers in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas. The storm track can modulate the large-scale atmospheric circulations, which induces anomalous meridional heat transport, downward longwave radiation, and mechanical forcing to further influence the SIC anomalies. The resultant SIC anomalies can last for several months and have the potential to feed back to the storm track. According to the MCA, the influence of the SIC anomalies to the storm track is most evident in August. The SIC dipole along with the SIC anomalies in the Indian Ocean sector have large impact on the storm track activities downstream. The SIC anomalies alters the near-surface temperature gradient and subsequently atmospheric baroclinicity. Further energetic analysis suggests that the enhanced atmospheric baroclinicity facilitates the baroclinic energy conversion from mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy, and then to eddy kinetic energy, strengthening the storm track activities over the midlatitude Indian Ocean.

Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Interannual Variation on Nonmonsoonal Winter Precipitation over the Eurasian Continent

Abstract The present study analyzes the impact of interannual variation in autumn (September–November) Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) on early winter (November–January) precipitation over nonmonsoonal Eurasian (NME) regions based on both observations and numerical model experiments. An energy budget analysis shows that negative autumn SIC anomalies in the Beaufort–Chukchi–East Siberian Seas (BCES) induce heating in the overlying atmospheric column, which excites a Rossby wave that propagates from the BCES through the Atlantic Ocean to the mid- and high-latitude Eurasian continent. This Rossby wave obtains energy from the mean flow by both baroclinic and barotropic energy conversions. In comparison, the baroclinic energy conversion is more important than the barotropic energy conversion. The low-level anomalous cyclone and anticyclone of the Rossby wave dominate the eastern North Atlantic Ocean–southern Europe and western Russia, respectively. Anomalous westerly wind along the south flank of the anomalous cyclone transports moisture from the North Atlantic Ocean to the continent, resulting in a water vapor flux convergence and positive precipitation anomaly over southern Europe in early winter. Pronounced anomalous northerly winds in the eastern part of the western Russian anticyclone cause negative precipitation anomalies over vast regions of central Asia and the west Siberian plain in early winter. The Rossby wave ray tracing experiment and numerical sensitivity experiments support the above BCES SIC–NME precipitation connection.

Variations in Summer Extreme Hot–Humid Events over Eastern China and the Possible Associated Mechanisms

Abstract This study aimed to explore the changing characteristics of summer, compound, extreme hot–humid events over eastern China in recent decades and the associated underlying mechanisms. Results showed that the summer extreme hot–humid events over eastern China have tended to increase but with strong interannual variability in recent decades. Further analyses indicated that the summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the northwest Pacific (NW Pacific) and western tropical Pacific, and the May Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies are the key elements that are closely connected to the variations in extreme hot–humid events over eastern China. The positive SST anomalies over the NW Pacific in summer, on the one hand, could strengthen the local circulation patterns that lead to the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over eastern China. On the other hand, the positive SST anomalies over the western tropical Pacific excite an anomaly pattern similar to the Pacific–Japan pattern that weakens the westerly jet and enhances the anticyclone circulation anomalies over the upper level of eastern China. Both of them provide favorable conditions for extreme hot–humid events over eastern China with increased moisture and temperatures. The sensitivity experiments by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), with SST forcing yield similar influencing processes to the observations. Additionally, the effect of SIC may be potentially responsible for the hot conditions in extreme hot–humid events over eastern China. The signal of declining May SIC could persist to summer and then influence the SST anomalies to its south, which could also produce a beneficial background for extreme hot–humid events to increase over eastern China by exciting the Rossby wave train propagating southeastward across the Mongolia–Lake Baikal region.

Physical-biological drivers modulating phytoplankton seasonal succession along the Northern Antarctic Peninsula

The Northern Antarctic Peninsula (NAP) shows shifts in phytoplankton distribution and composition along its warming marine ecosystems. However, despite recent efforts to mechanistically understand these changes, little focus has been given to the phytoplankton seasonal succession, remaining uncertainties regarding to distribution patterns of emerging taxa along the NAP. To fill this gap, we collected phytoplankton (pigment and microscopy analysis) and physico-chemical datasets during spring and summer (November, February and March) of 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 off the NAP. Satellite measurements (sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and chlorophyll-a) were used to extend the temporal coverage of analysis associated with the in situ sampling. We improved the quantification and distribution pattern of emerging taxa, such as dinoflagellates and cryptophytes, and described a contrasting seasonal behavior and distinct fundamental niche between centric and pennate diatoms. Cryptophytes and pennate diatoms preferentially occupied relatively shallower mixing layers compared with centric diatoms and dinoflagellates, suggesting differences between these groups in distribution and environment occupation over the phytoplankton seasonal succession. Under colder conditions, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were associated with positive anomalies of sea ice concentration and duration. Therefore, based on sea ice–phytoplankton growth relationship, large phytoplankton biomass accumulation was expected during the spring/summer of 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 along the NAP. However, there was a decoupling between sea ice concentration/duration and phytoplankton biomass, characterizing two seasonal periods of low biomass accumulation (negative chlorophyll-a anomalies), associated with the top-down control in the region. These results provide an improved mechanistic understanding on physical-biological drivers modulating phytoplankton seasonal succession along the Antarctic coastal waters.

Intraseasonal Sea Ice Concentration Variability Over the Weddell Sea During Austral Autumn

AbstractThe sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Weddell Sea displays obvious intraseasonal variability during austral autumn with a dominant frequency of 5–20 days. The intraseasonal SIC variability is manifested as development of sea ice anomalies from the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula toward the central Weddell Sea. Rossby wave train associated with the internal atmospheric variability featuring circumglobal zonal wavenumber 4 pattern induces the development of anomalous surface winds and sea ice drifting, leading to the SIC anomalies directly. The thermodynamical processes associated with the intraseasonal SIC variability include the air temperature, the moisturizing of the lower troposphere, the latent and sensible heating, and the downwelling longwave radiation, which contribute to the variation of the local greenhouse effect over the Weddell Sea, and thus lead to the sea ice variation. The investigation of the intraseasonal SIC variability helps the understanding of sea‐ice‐atmosphere interaction over the Antarctic region.

Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions

AbstractUral blocking (UB) is a prominent mode of variability of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, particularly in fall. It can persist for several days and exert a lagged influence on the wintertime NH circulation, providing predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Using two atmospheric models, we explore how the early winter atmospheric circulation responds to a 2‐week persistent UB anomaly imposed in early November. Experiments are carried out with two different configurations of Barents‐Kara (BK) sea‐ice concentration to examine whether it plays a role in how UB impacts atmospheric variability. In both models, the UB anomaly is followed by a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which lasts up to 2 months after the forcing is released. Interestingly, the response is more persistent under low BK sea‐ice conditions, that is, BK sea ice modulates the atmospheric response to UB. Additional experiments with prescribed sea ice concentration anomalies alone suggest that BK sea ice exerts a limited influence on early winter NH atmospheric variability. The response to UB involves a weakening of the polar vortex that persists longer under low BK sea ice, which explains the more persistent response in that configuration. Our study highlights that UB variability in November is a robust precursor for early winter NAO/polar stratosphere anomalies, and this may be more relevant in the context of declining Arctic sea‐ice extent. Provided that climate models accurately capture this teleconnection, it has the potential to improve subseasonal predictions of the NH wintertime climate.

Linkage of Spring Vegetation Dipole Pattern in Mid‐High Latitude Asia to Preceding Autumn Sea Ice Over the Barents‐Laptev Seas

AbstractBased on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and empirical orthogonal function analysis, a “northeast‐southwest” dipole pattern of spring vegetation in mid‐high latitude Asia was detected. This pattern was revealed to be associated with the autumn sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies in the Barents‐Laptev Seas on the interannual variability. Increased autumn SIC over the Barents‐Laptev Seas tends to increase spring NDVI over the west of Lake Baikal and decrease spring NDVI in the Russian Far East. Further analyses indicated that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies persisting from winter to spring over the Northeast Atlantic and the Northwest Pacific play an important role in such a relationship. Increased autumn SIC over the Barents‐Laptev Seas is associated with a teleconnection pattern over the mid‐high latitudes in the following winter, accompanied by anomalous anticyclonic circulations over the Northeast Atlantic and the Northwest Pacific. Such changes in the large‐scale circulations induce downward net heat flux anomalies over the Northeast Atlantic and the Northwest Pacific, thereby contributing to the warming of SST which may persist to spring and in turn influence the atmospheric circulations. The Northeast Atlantic SST warming in spring may evoke a downstream wave train and cause positive geopotential height anomalies over the west of Lake Baikal, which increases local temperature and hence the vegetation. The Northwest Pacific SST warming in spring may lead to negative geopotential height anomalies over the Russian Far East through a meridional wave train, consequently resulting in a decrease in local temperature and hence vegetation.

Antarctic sea ice regime shift associated with decreasing zonal symmetry in the Southern Annular Mode

Abstract. Across the long-term (∼43-year) satellite record, Antarctic sea ice extent shows a small overall circumpolar increase, resulting from opposing regional sea ice concentration anomalies. Running short-term samples of the same sea ice concentration data, however, show that the long-term trend pattern is dominated by the earliest years of the satellite record. Compensating regional anomalies diminish over time, and in the most recent decade, these tend towards spatial homogeneity instead. Running 30-year trends show the regional pattern of sea ice behaviour reversing over time; while in some regions, trend patterns abruptly shift in line with the record anomalous sea ice behaviour of recent years, in other regions a steady change predates these record anomalies. The shifting trend patterns in many regions are co-located with enhanced north–south flow due to an increasingly wave-3-like structure of the Southern Annular Mode. Sea surface temperature anomalies also shift from a circumpolar cooling to a regional pattern that resembles the increasingly asymmetric structure of the Southern Annular Mode, with warming in regions of previously increasing sea ice such as the Ross Sea.

Relationship between Antarctic Sea ice and the variability of March to May precipitation in Tanzania

AbstractThis study investigates the relationship between the Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) and the precipitation variability in Tanzania during March to May (MAM) season from 1978 to 2017. It is found that the MAM SIC over the Weddell (Ross) sea is negatively correlated with the MAM precipitation, particularly over northern (southern) Tanzania, signifying that the high (low) MAM SIC over the Weddell (Ross) sea is associated with suppressed (enhanced) rainfall in Tanzania. The atmospheric circulations related to the MAM SIC anomalies were further analysed. It is revealed that the positive MAM SIC anomalies in the Weddell sea and the Ross sea are associated with the upper‐level wave train patterns propagating from the high latitudes to the low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, which results in anomalous upper‐level cyclonic circulation over the western Indian Ocean and Tanzania. The upper‐level cyclonic circulation anomaly favours the low‐level divergence and results in the subsidence over Tanzania. Moreover, the low‐level wind outflow over Tanzania due to divergence reduces the water vapour supply to Tanzania. This background is unfavourable for the occurrence of precipitation and thus decreases the precipitation in Tanzania. The situation is reversed for the negative MAM SIC anomalies over the Weddell sea and the Ross sea, conducive to the increase of precipitation over Tanzania.

A Shifting Tripolar Pattern of Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies During Multi‐Year La Niña Events

AbstractA 2,200‐year CESM1 pre‐industrial simulation is used to contrast Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) variations between the first and second austral winters of multi‐year La Niñas. The typical SIC anomaly pattern induced by single‐year La Niñas appears only during the second austral winter of multi‐year La Niñas. A similar pattern, but zonally shifted compared to the typical one, is found during the first winter and exhibits a tripolar pattern with anomaly centers over the Ross, Amundsen‐Bellingshausen, and Weddell Seas. The shift is a result of the pre‐onset conditions associated with multi‐year La Niñas that excites unique atmospheric circulation modes during the first winter. The distinct zonally‐shifted SIC anomaly pattern is observed in four of the six multi‐year La Niña events during the period 1979–2020. These results suggest that it is helpful to separate La Niñas into single and multi‐year events to better understand the La Niña impacts on Antarctic climate.

Links between winter dust over the Tibetan Plateau and preceding autumn sea ice variability in the Barents and Kara Seas

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is characterized by heavily local dust activities, however, the mechanism of interannual variations of winter dust frequency over the TP remain poorly understood. Previous studies showed the autumn Arctic sea ice could significantly influence the winter climate over Eurasia. Whether autumn sea ice affects winter dust activity over the TP or not? Here, we used an integrated surface database to investigate possible mechanisms for interannual variability in the frequency of winter dust events above the TP. This variability, which is thought to be mainly caused by local dust emissions, shows significant correlations with sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents and Kara Seas during the preceding autumn. Low Barents–Kara SIC is accompanied by reduced snow depth over northern Eurasia between autumn and winter, which can enhance the Eurasian mid-latitude westerly jet stream. This strengthening increases the cyclogenesis and occurrence of strong surface wind speeds in winter, especially over the TP. In addition, a lower SIC is closely associated with reduced precipitation and snow cover in late autumn and winter over the TP, which in turn enhances warming of the land surface and reduces the area of frozen ground. These anomalies in atmospheric circulation patterns and local surface conditions promote dust events above the TP during winter. The ensemble means of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project experiments from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project and the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 can generally reproduce the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with decreased Barents–Kara SIC. This study reveals the crucial effect that SIC anomalies in the Barents and Kara Seas have on winter dust activities over the TP.