Risk Assessment Score Research Articles

Abstract 4138019: eQTL Analysis of the PAH Biomarker CCN2 Identifies a Novel SNP that Associates with Survival

Background: We recently determined that cellular communication network factor 2 (CCN2) (also known as IGFBP8) levels associate with metrics of severity, and survival, in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). While genetic variants that modify CCN2 gene expression have been described, the variants across the genome that associate with CCN2 protein levels in human circulation remain unknown. Research Question: We sought to identify genetic variants associated with circulating levels of CCN2 and to determine those variants’ relationship with clinical severity and survival. Methods: Serum CCN2 was measured by ELISA in subjects from a national sample repository, the PAH Biobank. A genome wide association study (GWAS) for CCN2 (natural log transformed) was performed in White idiopathic PAH (IPAH) PAH Biobank participants (n = 768) using Illumina OMNI5 genotypes in plink after standard quality control. Subsequent exploration of the SNP of interest was conducted in a separate dataset of 687 White PAH participants (n=360 IPAH, n=313 APAH) linked to genetic and clinical data, including REVEAL 2.0 risk score assessment (divided into low, medium, and high-risk levels) and outcomes (the STRIDE (Sitaxsentan To Relieve Impaired Exercise) trials cohort). Results: In the PAH Biobank, using GWAS, we found CCN2 levels were significantly associated with rs9493157 (p = 2.8 x10 -12 ) ( Figure A ). rs9493157 is reported in the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) portal to be an eQTL for CCN2 expression in the left ventricle. In the STRIDE cohort, the hazard ratio (HR) for death was 1.33 (99% CI 1.03 to 1.72) for participants with one or more T alleles (p=0.027; ( Figure B )). On multivariate analysis, the HR for death was 1.28 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.66; p=0.060). Among subjects with the highest REVEAL2.0 risk, those with a T allele had worse survival than those no T allele, with best survival among those with low a REVEAL2.0 score and no T allele. Conclusions: In White PAH subjects, rs9493157 associates with human levels of serum CCN2, a known biomarker for PAH. While additional studies are warranted, the T allele associates with worse survival and may enhance the prognostic value of the REVEAL2.0 risk score.

Comparing predictive validity of Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory scores in Indigenous and non-Indigenous Canadian youth.

There is an increasing recognition of the necessity to establish the predictive validity of risk assessment scores within specific population subgroups, particularly those (including Indigenous peoples) who are overrepresented in the criminal justice system. I compared measures of discrimination and calibration of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) in Indigenous and non-Indigenous youth probationers in Ontario, Canada. Compared with non-Indigenous youth, Indigenous youth would have higher risk scores and reoffense rates. The YLS/CMI would predict reoffending and time to reoffense significantly and comparably for Indigenous and non-Indigenous youth, but there would be group difference discrimination (sensitivity, specificity) and calibration (positive predictive value, negative predictive value). Justice ministry-supplied data on 400 Indigenous and non-Indigenous youth (330 male, 70 female) individually matched on key background variables were analyzed to provide measures of discrimination and calibration of the YLS/CMI, with 3-year recidivism as the primary outcome. Indigenous youth were assessed at significantly higher risk than non-Indigenous youth (d = .60); 70% of Indigenous youth and 46% of non-Indigenous youth reoffended (ϕ = .24). Overall measures of discrimination (area under the curve) and calibration (logistic regression) were significant and did not differ across groups. Cross-area under the curve results indicated that the YLS/CMI discriminated Indigenous recidivists from non-Indigenous nonrecidivists but differentiated Indigenous nonrecidivists from non-Indigenous recidivists at chance level. In addition, recidivism was underestimated for low-risk Indigenous youth compared with non-Indigenous youth, but specificity was also low; only 28% of Indigenous youth who did not reoffend were assessed as low risk. Results were largely consistent across male and female youth. Examining subgroup predictive validity using multiple indices provides important information that should inform policy and practice discussions regarding fair use of risk assessment tools. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Ruxolitinib plus steroids for acute graft versus host disease: a multicenter, randomized, phase 3 trial

Newly diagnosed patients with high-risk acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) often experience poor clinical outcomes and low complete remission rates. Ruxolitinib with corticosteroids showed promising efficacy in improving response and failure free survival in our phase I study. This study (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04061876) sought to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of combining ruxolitinib (RUX, 5 mg/day) with corticosteroids (1 mg/kg/day methylprednisolone, RUX/steroids combined group) versus using methylprednisolone alone (2 mg/kg/day, steroids-only group). Newly diagnosed patients with intermediate- or high-risk aGVHD were included, with risk levels classified by either the Minnesota aGVHD Risk Score or biomarker assessment. Patients were randomized in a ratio of 1:1 into 2 groups: 99 patients received RUX combined with methylprednisolone, while the other 99 received methylprednisolone alone as the initial treatment. The RUX/steroids group showed a significantly higher overall response rate (ORR) on day 28 (92.9%) compared to the steroids-only group (70.7%, Odds Ratio [OR] = 5.8; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 2.4–14.0; P < 0.001). Similarly, the ORR on day 56 was higher in the RUX/steroids group (85.9% vs. 46.5%; OR = 7.07; 95% CI, 3.36–15.75; P < 0.001). Additionally, the 18-month failure-free survival was significantly better in the RUX/steroids group (57.2%) compared to the steroids-only group (33.3%; Hazard Ratio = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.31–0.68; P < 0.001). Adverse events (AEs) frequencies were comparable between both groups, with the exception of fewer grade 4 AEs in the RUX/steroids group (26.3% vs. 50.5% P = 0.005). To our knowledge, this study is the first prospective, randomized controlled trial to demonstrate that adding ruxolitinib to the standard methylprednisolone regimen provides an effective and safe first-line treatment for newly diagnosed high-risk acute GVHD.

Construction of vulnerable plaque prediction model based on multimodal vascular ultrasound parameters and clinical risk factors

The rupture of vulnerable plaque (VP) are significant pathogenic factors leading to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. This study aims to construct a vulnerable plaque prediction model (VPPM) by combining multimodal vascular ultrasound parameters and clinical risk factors, and to validate it. A total of 196 atherosclerotic patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy (CEA) from January 2017 to December 2023 were collected and divided into a modeling group (n = 137) and a validation group (n = 59). Clinical information including: hypertension, diabetes, smoking history, and body mass index (BMI) was included in the analysis. All patients underwent carotid ultrasound and contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) examination after admission, with main ultrasound parameters including thickness, echogenicity types, stenosis degree, and CEUS neovascularization grading of plaques. Independent risk factors for VP in CEA patients were screened through binary Logistic regression analysis, and a prediction model was established along with a nomogram. The calibration curve, receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC), and decision curve analysis (DCA) were employed to assess the calibration, diagnostic efficacy, and clinical utility of the VPPM model. There were no significant statistical differences in multimodal vascular ultrasound parameters and clinical risk factors between the modeling and validation groups (P > 0.05). Binary Logistic regression analysis identified plaque thickness, echo type, CEUS neovascularization grading, BMI, and smoking history as 5 variables entering the prediction model. The VPPM model showed good diagnostic efficacy, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.959 (95% CI 0.915–0.999). Using the nomogram with a VPPM risk assessment score of 135.42 as the diagnostic cutoff value in the modeling group, the sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and Youden index were 88.1%, 94.1%, 14.98, 0.126, and 82.2%, respectively. In the DCA curve, the VPPM model curve was significantly better than two extreme lines, indicating good clinical utility. The VPPM model constructed by integrating multimodal ultrasound parameters and clinical key risk factors has high diagnostic efficacy and is expected to be an auxiliary tool for clinical diagnosis of vulnerable plaques.

Primary Prevention of Cancer-Associated Thrombosis: Current Perspectives.

Over the past two decades, the incidence of cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT) has increased. It is nowadays a common and often serious complication among patients with cancer. Although medical thromboprophylaxis is recommended for most surgical and nonsurgical cancer patients, it has been infrequently used in ambulatory patients with cancer because of the burden of treatment and concerns about bleeding. However, various risk assessment scores are now available and randomized placebo-controlled trials have established the efficacy of low-molecular-weight heparin or the direct oral Xa inhibitors rivaroxaban and apixaban in ambulatory patients with cancer at high risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). This review provides an overview of (1) primary thromboprophylaxis in the setting of hospitalized surgical and medical patients, (2) extended thromboprophylaxis after hospital discharge, (3) performance of risk assessment tools for CAT, and (4) primary thromboprophylaxis in ambulatory patients with cancer. The aim is to provide support to physicians in identifying ambulatory patients with cancer at high VTE risk who benefit most from medical thromboprophylaxis according to current recommendations from international guidelines.

Validation of risk assessment scores in predicting venous thromboembolism in patients with lung cancer receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors

IntroductionSeveral risk scores have been proposed to predict venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized patients. However, their predictive performances in lung cancer patients receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) is unclear. We aimed to validate and compare their performances of the Caprini, Padua and Khorana risk scores in lung cancer patients receiving ICIs.MethodsThis was a retrospective cohort study of patients with lung cancer treated with ICIs at West China Hospital between January 2018 and March 2022. The primary outcome was VTE during 12 months of follow-up from the first day of treatment with ICIs. The predictive performances of risk scores was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.ResultsAmong the 1115 eligible patients with lung cancer who received ICIs, 105 patients (9.4%) experienced VTE during the 12-month follow-up period. There was a statistically significant difference in the cumulative incidence of VTE between the different risk levels as determined by Caprini and Padua scores (all P < 0.001). However, no significant difference was observed for the Khorana score (P = 0.488). The Caprini and Padua scores demonstrated good discriminative performances (AUC 0.743, 95% CI 0.688-0.799 for Caprini score; AUC 0.745, 95% CI 0.687‐0.803 for Padua score), which were significantly better than that of the Khorana score (AUC 0.553, 95% CI, 0.493‐0.613) (P < 0.05).ConclusionIn our study, the Caprini and Padua risk scores had better discriminative ability than the Khorana score to identify lung cancer patients treated with ICIs who were at high risk of VTE.

Assessing the Risks of Risk Assessments: Institutional Tensions and Data Driven Judicial Decision-Making in U.S. Pretrial Hearings

Abstract Risk assessments, which are predictive technologies designed to augment organizational decision-making processes, are expanding globally. The use of risk assessments may lend legitimacy to official actors who routinely adjudicate highly consequential decisions alongside competing institutional pressures. But because these tools are laden with measurement errors, using them may also magnify institutional tensions and erode the legitimacy of official actors’ decision-making practices. In this article, I use interviews with judges in four large U.S. criminal courts to reveal how they strategically engaged with risk assessment scores to navigate tensions within and among different institutional logics. In pretrial hearings, judges selectively invoked risk scores to legitimate punitive sanctions that mitigated tensions from bureaucratic logics to process high caseloads with limited resources, legal logics to protect public safety and impose the least restrictive conditions, and political logics to follow the law while facing public scrutiny. I discuss the implications of these findings for future research on penal change and the uses of discretion in the age of big data.

Natural Language Processing Risk Assessment Application Developed for Marble Quarries

In this study, by using the texts describing the hazards and precautions taken during text mining, the necessary processes were carried out to first estimate the probability value and severity value of the risk and then calculate the risk values by Natural Language Processing analysis. In order to be used within the scope of the study, two data sets were generated from the data in the risk assessment report prepared by applying the L-type matrix risk assessment in marble quarries between 2015 and 2021. Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) was used for classification and prediction by analyzing text data. One data set was used to analyze the probability value of the risk and the other was used to analyze the severity value of the risk. In light of the results, when a text containing hazard and precaution information was entered, a system was developed that analyzed this text, estimated the probability and severity values, and calculated the risk assessment score. The application of the SGD algorithm to learning models developed on text data yielded an accuracy rate of 91.2% in the risk probability data set and 97.5% in the risk severity data set. The results indicated that the models were capable of conducting automatic risk assessment on text data and of effectively predicting the requisite probability and severity values. Due to the high accuracy rates obtained during the study, this risk assessment software was recommended for use in marble quarries.

Anticipated buffer time – An evasive surrogate safety indicator for risk assessment of unsignalized intersections under heterogeneous traffic and aggressive driving conditions

Risk assessment of unsignalized intersections is particularly challenging when confronted with a combination of factors such as heavy traffic, diverse vehicle types, lane indiscipline, aggressive driving, and evasive manoeuvres. Understanding how people drive in these situations is crucial for accurately assessing the risks at unsignalized intersections. This study introduces a novel surrogate safety indicator, i.e. Anticipated Buffer Time (ABT), designed to account for these various factors. Additionally, three new indicators derived from ABT are introduced, namely ABT Negation Ratio, ABT Extremity Ratio, and ABT Progression Ratio. A risk assessment measure, denoted as UnSigRisk Score, is formulated using these three indicators for unsignalized intersections. Three intersections in Ahmedabad, India, were selected for the study due to their manifestation of these challenging conditions. Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient was estimated to find out how well can UnSigRisk Score measure is able to quantify evasive behaviour. The results indicate that this score proficiently measures evasive behaviour, exhibiting coefficients exceeding 0.6 in all cases—significantly outperforming the current evasive indicators, Yaw Rate Ratio and Jerk. The proposed risk assessment score could serve as a practical tool for transportation authorities, enabling them to identify the most vulnerable intersections and allocate resources for targeted safety interventions wisely. The study unequivocally demonstrates that the use of ABT paves the way for a thorough examination of safety at unsignalized intersections, regardless of driving behaviour and traffic conditions.

The SpO2/FiO2 Ratio Combined with Prognostic Scores for Pneumonia and COVID-19 Increases Their Accuracy in Predicting Mortality of COVID-19 Patients

Background: Identifying high-risk COVID-19 patients is critical for emergency department decision-making. Our study’s primary objective was to identify new independent predictors of mortality and their predictive utility in combination with traditional pneumonia risk assessment scores and new risk scores for COVID-19 developed during the pandemic. Methods: A retrospective study was performed in two Italian University Hospitals. A multivariable logistic model was used to locate independent parameters associated with mortality. Results: Age, PaO2/FiO2, and SpO2/FiO2 ratios were found to be independent parameters associated with mortality. This study found that the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) was superior to many of the risk scores developed during the pandemic, for example, the International Severe Acute Respiratory Infection Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC 4C) (AUC 0.845 vs. 0.687, p &lt; 0.001), and to many of the risk scores already in use, for example, the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) (AUC 0.845 vs. 0.589, p &lt; 0.001). Furthermore, our study found that the Pneumonia Severity Index had a similar performance to other risk scores, such as CRB-65 (AUC 0.845 vs. 0.823, p = 0.294). Combining the PaO2/FiO2 or SpO2/FiO2 ratios with the risk scores analyzed improved the prognostic accuracy. Conclusions: Adding the SpO2/FiO2 ratio to the traditional, validated, and already internationally known pre-pandemic prognostic scores seems to be a valid and rapid alternative to the need for developing new prognostic scores. Future research should focus on integrating these markers into existing pneumonia scores to improve their prognostic accuracy.

B-136 From Result to Response: The Development of Laboratory-Based Scoring Models to Predict COVID-19 Patient Outcomes

Abstract Background Patient characteristics relating to increased risk for COVID-19 severity are well-documented, including older age and pre-existing health concerns; however, methods to accurately predict patients’ acute reaction to SARS-CoV-2 infections remain lacking. Identification of specific laboratory tests informative of patient outcomes could effectively screen incoming patients and better inform physicians regarding optimal treatment plans. The aim of this study was to examine associations between frequently ordered laboratory markers and COVID-19 patient mortality to develop an objective laboratory-based scoring system that estimates patients’ risk of mortality. Methods Study participants included inpatients from 3 hospitals recruited into the GENCOV project based in Ontario, Canada. Participants (n=325) were at least 18 years of age, provided consent, and were hospitalized within 1 month of having a PCR confirmed COVID-19 infection between January 2020 and February 2022. Extensive clinical data including patient demographics, laboratory results, and treatment outcomes were extracted from patient’s electronic medical records (EMR). Results for 32 biochemical and hematological tests including complete blood cell counts, coagulation (activated partial thromboplastin time, D-dimer, fibrinogen, prothrombin time), general chemistry (albumin, blood gases, creatine kinase, electrolytes, glucose, triglycerides), inflammatory (lactate dehydrogenase, ferritin, C-reactive protein), liver (alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin), renal (creatinine, urea) and cardiac (troponin, NT-proBNP, BNP) markers were collected from each chart. Univariable logistic regression with nested likelihood ratio tests were used to determine significant associations between laboratory results and patient outcomes. Significant markers were incorporated into multivariable models and variable risk values were assigned. Total calculated risk scores for each participant were compared using univariable and multivariable risk values. Validation of each scoring method was performed on a 20% subset of inpatients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves evaluated model performance. Results Six laboratory markers were associated with COVID-19 patient mortality when controlling for age and sex. Univariable regression showed that elevated creatinine, elevated lactate, elevated white blood cell, low base excess, low bicarbonate, or low pH results upon admission were significantly associated with increased odds of mortality, in comparison to test results within the reference range for these same markers. Multivariable regression revealed fewer markers (only low bicarbonate and low base excess) showing significant associations with COVID-19 mortality. Area under the ROC curves (AUC) determined that risk scores derived from univariable values performed similarly to multivariable values in validation (0.800 vs 0.802) and development cohorts (0.821 vs 0.829). Total risk scores calculated from the univariable vs multivariable models suggest higher sensitivity (90% vs 85%) than specificity (58% vs 67%) in the validation cohort, whereas the development cohort had higher sensitivity (88%) than specificity (66%) with univariable scores, and higher specificity (81%) than sensitivity (74%) with multivariable scores. Conclusions Laboratory results associated with COVID-19 mortality following both univariable and multivariable analyses suggest hospitalized patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 may present with acidosis. Total risk scores derived from univariable and multivariable values performed similarly in predicting mortality; however, differences in marker significance between models indicate discrepancies with risk interpretation. Further comparison of the created risk score assessments with equivalent models in other populations is warranted.

"Metabolic Bridge Therapy Prior to Microvascular Breast Reconstruction in the Morbidly Obese: A Proof-of-Concept Risk Analysis".

Obese patients experience more complications after autologous breast reconstruction. This study evaluates how bariatric surgery modulates risk of complications in the setting of microvascular breast reconstruction. Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program (MBSAQIP) databases were queried for patients with body mass index (BMI) ≥35 kg/m2 undergoing bariatric surgery from 2017-2022. Outcomes included BMI and obesity-related comorbidities before and 1 year after bariatric surgery. Paired Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment (BRA) scores were analyzed to evaluate risk modulation before and after bariatric surgery in the setting of microvascular breast reconstruction. A total of 1,026 patients were included with an average age of 47 and BMI of 44.7 kg/m2. Comorbidities included hypertension (601, 59%), type 2 diabetes (291, 28%), and cardiovascular disease (10, 1%). One-year outcomes after bariatric surgery included an average BMI of 32.7 kg/m2, with remission of type 2 diabetes in 29% of patients. Paired BRA risk analysis for microvascular breast reconstruction before and after bariatric surgery showed reduction in 30-day surgical complications (40.4% vs. 24.8%, P<0.0001), with an absolute risk reduction (ARR) of 15%, relative risk reduction (RRR) of 36%, and a number needed to treat (NNT) of 7. Each 1 kg/m2 reduction in preoperative BMI was associated with a 3.4% reduction in surgical complications (P<0.0001). There is potential efficacy for metabolic bridge therapy in reducing complications for obese patients undergoing microvascular breast reconstruction.

Approach to the Patient: Diagnosis and Treatment with Growth Hormone of Turner Syndrome and its Variants.

Turner syndrome (TS) is characterized by a partial or complete absence of the second X chromosome in female. Here, patients with Xp deletion involving SHOX haploinsufficiency caused by unbalanced X-autosome translocations were discussed and considered as TS variants. This work aimed to expand the current knowledge of TS and unbalanced X-autosome translocations and to suggest the definition, clinical characteristics, diagnosis workflow and growth hormone (GH) treatment strategy of TS and its variants. A 9.0-year-old patient of TS variant with tall target height (+2.03SD) but low height velocity (3.6cm/y) and height (-1.33SD) was evaluated as an example. Patients similar to the index patient were systematically searched in MEDLINE and EMBASE and summarized. A diagnosis workflow and scores for risk assessment of GH treatment (RiGHT scores) for TS variants were also proposed in this study. According to the diagnosis workflow, the girl's karyotype was confirmed as 46,X,der(X)t(X;7)(p11.3; p14.1), and was evaluated as low risk using RiGHT scores. After 2-year GH treatment, she had a significantly increased height (-0.94SD). Moreover, a total of 13 patients from 10 studies were summarized, characterized as short stature, growth retardation, craniofacial abnormalities, disorders of intellectual development, and psychomotor delays. Risk assessment of GH treatment using RiGHT scores were also applied in these 13 patients. The patients with Xp deletion caused by unbalanced X-autosome translocations should be considered as TS variants. The diagnosis workflow and RiGHT scores is a useful approach for clinicians in addressing complex cases of TS variants with GH treatment in clinical practice.

Predictive utility of a combination of the modified caprini risk assessment score and D-dimer for the evaluation and management of lower extremity venous thrombosis after lung cancer surgery

ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to examine the utility of a combination of the modified Caprini score and D-dimer levels for the evaluation and management of lower extremity venous thrombosis following lung cancer surgery. The purpose was to offer insights for developing clinical intervention programs.MethodsThe study sample consisted of 224 patients who underwent surgery for lung cancer at the First Central Hospital of Baoding City. General patient data and D-dimer levels on the first day post-surgery were collected. The modified Caprini risk assessment score was calculated. All patients underwent ultrasonography of the lower limb veins before and after surgery to identify venous thrombosis in the lower limb veins. Differences in lower extremity venous thrombosis and D-dimer levels among patients in various modified Caprini score groups were compared and analyzed.ResultsBased on the modified Caprini risk assessment score, all patients were categorized into three groups: the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups. The groups did not differ significantly in terms of age, but the differences in the rates of lower extremity venous thrombosis in the low, intermediate, and high-risk Caprini risk groups (16.5%, 19.2%, and 37.1%, respectively) were statistically significant. Out of the total 224 patients, 47 (21%) were diagnosed with venous thromboembolisms post-surgery, and all of them had thrombosis of the intermuscular veins of the lower extremity. The difference in the modified Caprini risk assessment score between patients with and without lower extremity venous thrombosis was statistically significant (P = 0.035), as were the postoperative D-dimer levels (1.28 ± 1.64 vs. 2.69 ± 2.77, respectively; P < 0.05) between these two groups of patients. The modified Caprini risk assessment score showed an association with lower extremity venous thrombosis (r = 0.15, P = 0.56) with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.59.ConclusionIn this study, we found that combining the modified Caprini risk assessment score with D-dimer measurements enhanced the accuracy of assessing the severity of deep vein thrombosis (DVT). This combination can be beneficial in evaluating thrombosis risk post-lung cancer surgery and holds significant clinical utility.

Validation of clinical risk assessment scores for venous thromboembolism in patients with cancer: a population-based cohort study

BackgroundGuidelines recommend using risk assessment tools to identify ambulatory patients with cancer at high risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). ObjectiveWe aimed to validate a new cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT) risk score in a population-based healthcare setting. MethodsWe used healthcare registry data and electronic medical records from the Central Denmark Region to calculate the new CAT risk score and the guideline-recommended Khorana score in patients with a first-time cancer diagnosis who initiated systemic cancer therapy. Patients were followed for six months after initiation of therapy. The outcome was any VTE identified through hospital discharge diagnoses. Discrimination was assessed using c-statistics. ResultsWe included 12,471 patients from 2012 through 2020. Of these, 416 (3.3%) developed VTE. The c-statistic was 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68–0.74) for the new CAT score and 0.66 (95% CI: 0.63–0.70) for the Khorana score. The six-month cumulative VTE incidence was 5.0% in 6,175 patients classified as high risk by the new CAT score, compared with 1.7% in 6,296 patients classified as low risk. The six-month cumulative VTE incidence was 5.2% in 4,263 patients classified as high risk by the Khorana score, compared with 2.4% in 8,208 patients classified as low risk. ConclusionThe new CAT score had a discriminatory ability similar to that reported in the derivation study. The c-statistic was numerically higher than that of the Khorana score. Our findings support implementation of the new CAT score to identify ambulatory patients with cancer who are at high risk of VTE.

Comparison of risk assessment scores in patients with pulmonary embolism

Background Pulmonary embolism (PE) is one of the most fatal emergencies with a high risk of mortality. Multiple risk stratification scores have been developed to assess a patient’s overall mortality risk. Objective This study aimed to validate modified FAST and modified Bova scores for risk stratification and predicting the risk of early mortality in patients presenting with acute PE. Patients and methods Patients admitted to Assiut University Hospital with PE were sequentially included. Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), modified Bova, and modified FAST scores were calculated for all included patients. Results A total of 100 patients with PE were sequentially included. It was found that predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with PE were; chronic heart failure [odds ratio (OR)= 1.87], chronic respiratory disease (OR= 1.99), chronic kidney disease (OR= 2.01), hypotension (OR= 2.99), intermediate-high risk- PESI (simplified version; OR=2.76), intermediate-high risk modified Bova score (OR= 3.01) and intermediate-high risk modified FAST score (OR= 3.90).It was found that the modified FAST score had the best diagnostic accuracy (89.2%) with an area under the curve (AUC) 0.962, followed by the modified Bova score with accuracy 76.8% and AUC 0.761. The two scores had higher accuracy than that for PESI score (53.4%, AUC= 0.627). Conclusion Modified FAST and modified Bova scores are simple and reliable tools for risk stratification of patients with acute PE.

Simple, Effective and Validated. VTE CASE Risk Assessment Score for Venous Thromboembolism in Metastatic Germ Cell Tumour Patients Before First-Line Chemotherapy.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) may jeopardise excellent treatment results of germ cell tumours (GCT). We previously constructed a VTE risk score for GCT patients qualified for first-line chemotherapy (CTH), including vein compression, clinical stage (CS) and haemoglobin concentration. Validating our score in a separate cohort and establishing the cut-off point for the score. Re-assessing the numerical score in the training cohort. We retrospectively analysed a new cohort of GCT patients staged IS-IIIC. Area under the curve of receiver-operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) was calculated for the developed score, Khorana Risk Score (KRS) and Padua Prediction Score (PPS). AUC-ROC of the integer score was calculated for the training cohort. Cut-off point was established by Youden's and Liu's indices. Among 336 eligible patients in the validation cohort, VTE occurred in 41 (12.2%). AUC-ROC for our score, KRS and PPS were 0.818 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.746-0.891), 0.608 (0.529-0.688) and 0.634 (0.547-0.720), respectively, p < 0.001. The optimal cut-off point for a low/high risk was 6 (≤ 6 vs. ≥ 7). In the training cohort, 369 patients had complete data on vein compression. AUC-ROC for our score, KRS and PPS were 0.819 (95% CI: 0.758-0.879), 0.710 (0.637-0.782) and 0.725 (0.651-0.800), p ≤ 0.001 and 0.015, respectively. Positive and negative predictive values were 30.8% and 96.5%, respectively. Our VTE risk score is a handy tool for GCT patients before first-line CTH for metastatic disease. Outperforming KRS and PPS, it has a good discriminatory value, especially for identifying low-risk patients.

A cross-sectional study to assess the prevalence of frozen shoulder among patients with diabetes mellitus

Purpose: Adhesive capsulitis (AC), is also known as frozen shoulder an insidious painful condition of the shoulder persisting more than 3 months. This inflammatory condition that causes fibrosis of the glenohumeral joint capsule is accompanied by gradually progressive stiffness and significant restriction of range of motion (typically external rotation).this study focusses on identifying frozen shoulder among diabetic patients as glycosylation process causes collagen in the shoulder to get stick which leads to frozen shoulder among type 2 diabetes patients. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study with total of 501 participants with the diagnosis of Diabetic Mellitus (DM).The participants underwent range of motion testing and shoulder strength assessment and Pain assessment using Emoji based Visual Analogue Pain scale. Results: Among 501 patients male were 49.9% and female were 50.9%. the value of HbA1c is categorized as uncontrolled diabetes with HbA1c value as &gt;7 is 6.60% and controlled diabetes with Hba1c value as &lt;7 is 93.4%. Through the preliminary assessment, the mean score for risk assessment is &gt;4 , where 62.7% falls under high risk of frozen shoulder. Conclusion: The study concluded that participants with uncontrolled diabetes have high risk towards developing frozen shoulder. Duration of pain in DM was directly proportional to the high risk of frozen shoulder and females were more affected than males.

External validation of the preHEART score and comparison with current clinical risk scores for prehospital risk assessment in patients with suspected NSTE-ACS

BackgroundEmergency Medical Services (EMS) studies have shown that prehospital risk stratification and triage decisions in patients with suspected non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) can be improved using clinical risk scores...

Abstract C150: Evaluating breast cancer risk by race and ethnicity using the Tyrer Cuzick and Gail models in the Komen Tissue Bank cohort

Abstract Introduction: Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in women after lung cancer in the United States. While early detection is critical to reducing morbidity and mortality, predication of individualized risk is important in prevention and could also reduce unnecessary costs related to screening. The Susan G. Komen Tissue Bank (KTB) at Indiana University is the only tissue bank in the world that provides breast tissue specimens donated by healthy individuals to further to breast cancer research; however, as donors are volunteers, it is not clear how representative they are with respect to breast cancer risk compared to the general population. Methods: In this study, we calculated Breast Cancer Risk Assessment scores using Tyrer Cuzick (TCZ) and the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (The Gail Model, GM) in the KTB cohort by race and ethnicity. Recruited between 2007 and 2023, the participants completed a questionnaire encompassing their demographics, personal health and reproductive history, family history, and modifiable risk factors like smoking and alcohol use. In both models, participants with a lifetime risk of breast cancer of more than 15% were classified as having higher than average risk, while those with a risk of less than 15% were classified as having an average risk. Data analysis was performed using SAS v.9.4 software. Statistical significance was determined by p-values &amp;lt;0.05. Results: Out of 5118 participants, 206 with prior breast cancer and 37 male donors were excluded, resulting in a final sample of 4875 participants (aged 18–90) for analysis. The cohort was predominantly non-Hispanic white (NHW, 69.73%), followed by non-Hispanic black (NHB, 16.7%), Hispanic (8. 6%), and Asian individuals (3.3%), with 1.8% reporting multiracial or other race. The GM consistently categorized fewer women as having higher than average risk compared to the TZM. Across both TCZ and GM, the percentages of individuals classified as higher than average risk was greatest for NHW women, with 29.2% being categorized as higher than average risk in the TCZ, compared to 21.0% in the GM. The greatest discordance between the models was seen in NHB women, with the TCZ estimating 25.2% were at greater than average risk, and the GM only reporting 3.7% to be at greater than average risk. Overall, risk assessment scores varied across racial and ethnic groups (p- value&amp;lt;0.001). Factors driving these differences will be presented in additional analyses. Conclusion: There are known limitations in breast cancer risk assessment models by race and ethnicity that were confirmed in the women who comprise the KTB cohort. Donors to the KTB are generally representative of the US population with respect to breast cancer risk. As the KTB cohort continues to grow and mature, it can be utilized to assess breast cancer risk models for various racial and ethnic groups to assist in the identification of high-risk individuals that may benefit from prevention strategies and targeted screening. Citation Format: Vidya Patil, Michele L. Cote, Jenny Cui. Evaluating breast cancer risk by race and ethnicity using the Tyrer Cuzick and Gail models in the Komen Tissue Bank cohort [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 17th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2024 Sep 21-24; Los Angeles, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2024;33(9 Suppl):Abstract nr C150.