Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements Research Articles

Uncertainty premia for small and large risks

We develop a model showing that the effect of smooth ambiguity aversion on large risks, those that are independent of the holding period, is of first-order importance, in contrast to risks that are proportional to the holding period. To test this hypothesis, we construct an ex-ante measure of the price of uncertainty based on changes in the option-implied concavity of preferences. As predicted by our model, we find that such concavity increases ahead of scheduled macroeconomic announcements, which represent large risks. We also provide an estimate of the coefficient of relative ambiguity aversion and show how uncertainty varies across different announcements. Our results suggest that the macroeconomic announcement premium arises at least partly because of an increase in the price of uncertainty. One implication is that a fundamental benefit of securities markets is that they break large risks into small ones by allowing frequent trading, thereby reducing discount rates.

Economic activity and suicides: Causal evidence from macroeconomic shocks in England and Wales

The relationship between economic activity and suicides has been the subject of much scrutiny, but the focus in the extant literature has been almost exclusively on estimating associations rather than causal effects. In this paper, using data from England and Wales between January 1, 1997 and December 31, 2017, we propose a plausible set of assumptions to estimate the causal impacts of well-known macroeconomic variables on the daily suicide rate. Our identification strategy relies on scheduled macroeconomic announcements and professional economic forecasts. An important advantage of using these variables to model suicide rates is that they can efficiently capture the elements of ‘surprise or shock’ via the observed difference between how the economy actually performed and how it was expected to perform. Provided that professional forecasts are unbiased and efficient, the estimated ‘surprises or shocks’ are ‘as good as random’, and therefore are exogenous. We employ time series regressions and present robust evidence that these exogenous macroeconomic shocks affect the suicide rate. Overall, our results are consistent with economic theory that shocks that reduce estimated permanent income, and therefore expected lifetime utility, can propel suicide rates. Specifically, at the population level, negative shocks to consumer confidence and house prices accelerate the suicide rate. However, there is evidence of behavioural heterogeneity between sexes, states of the economy, and levels of public trust in government. Negative shocks to the retail price index (RPI) raise the suicide rate for males. Negative shocks to the growth rate in gross domestic product (GDP) raise the population suicide rate when the economy is doing poorly. When public trust in government is low, increases in the unemployment rate increase the suicide rate for females.

Foreign institutions and the behavior of liquidity following macroeconomic announcements

This study uses a transaction-level dataset from the index futures market to investigate whether changes in the active participation ratio of foreign institutions explain the behavior of market liquidity following scheduled macroeconomic announcements. This ratio is positively associated with the bid-ask spread in general, but its marginal effect diminishes as the ratio increases. Announcement impacts vanish after controlling for the active participation of foreign investors.

Do financial markets respond to macroeconomic surprises? Evidence from the UK

We investigate the response of UK asset prices to a large set of domestic scheduled macroeconomic announcements using data at a daily frequency from 1998 to 2017. Our results are mostly consistent with economic theory and follow two general patterns: (1) a stronger-than-expected economy raises stock returns, causes the home currency to appreciate, makes the yield curve steeper, and lowers the corporate credit quality spread; (2) higher-than-anticipated inflation leads to an appreciation of the domestic currency and raises the slope of the yield curve. Surprises about retail sales, claimant count rate, GDP, and industrial production have the most prevalent effects across the four asset classes in our data set. A large number of macroeconomic announcements increase trading activity in the stock market, whereas there is barely any (only minor) evidence that announcements (surprises) affect the volatility of asset prices. We also document that the effects of macroeconomic surprises are contingent not only upon the state of the economy but also on the state of the stock market (bull vs. bear).

A Model of Two Days: Discrete News and Asset Prices

Abstract Empirical studies demonstrate striking patterns in stock returns related to scheduled macroeconomic announcements. A large proportion of the total equity premium is realized on days with macroeconomic announcements. The relation between market betas and expected returns is far stronger on announcement days as compared with nonannouncement days. Finally, these results hold for fixed-income investments as well as for stocks. We present a model in which agents learn the probability of an adverse economic state on announcement days. We show that the model quantitatively accounts for the empirical findings. Evidence from options data provides support for the model’s mechanism.

The Macroeconomic Announcement Premium

Empirical studies demonstrate striking patterns in stock market returns in relation to scheduled macroeconomic announcements. First, a large proportion of the total equity premium is realized on days with macroeconomic announcements, despite the small number of such days. Second, the relation between market betas and expected returns is far stronger on announcement days as compared with non-announcement days. Finally, these results hold for fixed-income investments as well as for stocks. We present a model with rare events that jointly explains these phenomena. In our model, which is solved in closed form, agents learn about a latent disaster probability from scheduled announcements. We quantitatively account for the empirical findings, along with other facts about the market portfolio.

The Impact of High-Frequency Trading on Australian Futures Market Liquidity and Efficiency

This article examines the co-location of high-frequency trading (HFT) facilities and capacity of the Australian futures market to absorb information following major scheduled macroeconomic announcements. The findings show that the co-location of HFT facilities has increased trading activities and liquidity across the four futures contracts investigated. The four futures contracts also demonstrate a market capacity to absorb information from major announcements efficiently. For instance, the majority of price adjustments are impounded within 30 seconds following major announcements. The authors conclude that abnormal trading profits are unlikely to be generated by HFT in the Australian futures market. TOPICS:Futures and forward contracts, derivatives Key Findings • The co-location of HFT facilities has increased trading activities and liquidity across the four futures contracts investigated in the Australian futures market. • These futures contracts also demonstrate a market capacity to absorb information from major announcements efficiently. • Abnormal trading profits are unlikely to be generated by HFT in the Australian futures market.

Impact of Algorithmic Trading on Speed of Adjustment to New Information: Evidence from Interest Rate Derivatives

This study examines the impact of algorithmic trading (AT) on the speed of adjustment and price discovery during scheduled macroeconomic announcements for interest rate derivatives. In February 2012, the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) introduced co-location services for futures traders. This change in market structure increases AT and, in this study, we examine price efficiency for both exchange-traded futures and over-the-counter (OTC)-traded swaps in the pre- and post-AT periods. Our results demonstrate that, in the presence of AT, the speed of adjustment to new information has improved for both futures and swaps. In addition, we find that the price discovery contribution of the futures market improves in the post-AT period, with this improvement significant for announcement days. We conclude that AT stimulates market adjustment to new information and enhances the price discovery of futures on days with scheduled macroeconomic releases.

On the Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Implied Volatility Index

This article examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the implied volatility index. The implied volatility index of various markets has been analyzed in relation to scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as EPU and equity market policy uncertainty (EMPU) indices. The study highlights that EPU contains important information to explain the diverse market effects of the U.S., which is gauged into the volatility index. Estimates obtained in an autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity framework indicate the persistence of volatility during spikes in the EPU. More importantly, the lagged values of the policy uncertainty index also contains market-related information to explain the markets’ future volatility. Major political and economic events have also contributed positively in that a presidential election contains information to explain various asset classes. Commodities, such as crude oil, gold, corn, and soybean, have been impacted significantly followed by EPU. Moreover, interest rate market volatility has also been moved adversely due to tight monetary policy. The Markov regime switching regression manifests that the implied volatility index (VIX) behaves abruptly in two different regimes followed by EPU.

The Impact of HFT on the Speed of Adjustment to New Information: Evidence from Interest Rate Derivatives

This study investigates the impact of HFT on the intraday speed of adjustment and price discovery following scheduled macroeconomic announcements for interest rate derivatives. Our results demonstrate that the speed of adjustment to new information has been improved for both interest rate derivatives, exchange-traded futures and over-the-counter (OTC) traded swaps, in the presence of HFT. In addition, we examine the lead-lag effects between swaps and futures during macro information releases in the pre- and post-colocation periods. We find that HFT strengthens the lead effects of futures on scheduled announcement days. This research was funded under Corporations regulation 7.5.88 through the use of excess funds from the SFEFF.

Something in the air: Information density, news surprises, and price jumps

This paper introduces a new information density indicator to provide a more comprehensive understanding of price reactions to news and, more specifically, to the sources of jumps in financial markets. Our information density indicator, which measures the abnormal amount of news before scheduled macroeconomic announcements, is significantly related to the likelihood of price jumps and is independent of the magnitude of news surprises or pre-announcement trading activity. We therefore interpret this variable as a measure of additional uncertainty in the market, inducing diffuse beliefs among investors, which are resolved through macroeconomic news as “hard” facts.

Systematic cojumps, market component portfolios and scheduled macroeconomic announcements

This study provides evidence of common bivariate jumps (i.e., systematic cojumps) between the market index and style-sorted portfolios. Systematic cojumps are prevalent in book-to-market portfolios and hence, their risk cannot easily be diversified away by investing in growth or value stocks. Nonetheless, large-cap firms have less exposure to systematic cojumps than small-cap firms. Probit regression reveals that systematic cojump occurrences are significantly associated with worse-than-expected scheduled macroeconomic announcements, especially those pertaining to the Federal Funds target rate. Tobit regression shows that Federal Funds news surprises are also significantly related to the magnitude of systematic cojumps.

Intraday Periodicity and Volatility Forecasting: Evidence from Indian Crude Oil Futures Market

We estimate intraday periodicities in return volatility by implementing two time series procedures—flexible Fourier form and cubic spline. We use intraday data for more than five years for crude oil futures contracts traded at the Multi Commodity Exchange India Limited. Filtration of the intraday periodicities from the raw returns reveals long-run dependence in volatility. We observe the presence of recurring and consistent intraday patterns in return volatility. Further, we find that adjustment for the intraday periodicity in return volatility improves forecasting performance. Our results are robust after controlling for the scheduled macroeconomic announcements. JEL Classification: C14, C22, G10

Cross-border scheduled macroeconomic news impacts: Evidence from high-frequency Asia Pacific currencies

The current study utilizes a comprehensive set of influential scheduled macroeconomic announcements released from various developed and emerging markets to investigate the speed and persistence of news impacts on major Asia-Pacific currencies sampled at high frequencies. A richly varied set of findings emerge. In general, we document that the responses to economic news released domestically and from the U.S. are rapid, and there is some evidence of persistency concerning U.S. economic news and news related to the China's purchasing manager index. The currency reactions to asymmetric economic news surprises and the states of the U.S. economy are heterogeneous. Finally, we show that macroeconomic announcements have contributed to the sudden increase in realized volatility and trading volumes of the currencies around the time of announcements.

Do Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements Influence Energy Price Jumps?

For six important energy futures markets, this study examines whether large price movements (i.e., jumps) are related to the arrival and information content of scheduled macroeconomic announcements. Since prior studies by Kilian and Vega [(2011) Review of Economics and Statistics, 93, 660–671] and Chatrath, Miao, and Ramchander [(2012) Journal of Futures Markets, 32, 536–559] find little evidence of an announcement‐price reaction in mean energy returns, we focus on jump dynamics as a possible conduit for macroeconomic announcements to influence the distribution of returns. We find little evidence of an increase in jump arrival rates coinciding with scheduled releases of economic data. Similarly, there is no compelling evidence that the magnitude and/or sign (“good” vs. “bad”) of the inherent announcement surprises influence the mean jump size. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 37:71–89, 2017

Jumps in equilibrium prices and asymmetric news in foreign exchange markets

In this paper we examine the intraday effects of surprises from scheduled macroeconomic announcements and unscheduled event news on six major exchange rate excess returns (jumps) using a Tobit model with conditionally heteroskedastic errors that we extend so as to account for asymmetries. Besides this novel model, our approach embodies several important features: we perform Lee and Mykland's (2012) non-parametric test procedure to filter out microstructure noise from observed exchange rates and extract jumps as the significant “equilibrium” returns; various categories of information news from different geographical regions are exploited; the hypothesis of a leverage effect on foreign exchange jumps due to asymmetric volatility shocks is examined. We found that the most influential scheduled macroeconomic news are globally related to the US job markets, output growth indicators and public debt, whereas significant event news include announcements of bank failures and government rescue plans. Surprises impact Forex jumps for about one third as a result of rather pessimistic forecasts due to the crisis period analyzed. For most of the currencies the hypothesis that negative volatility shocks have a greater impact on volatility than positive shocks of the same magnitude is validated, reflecting markets' concern about the costs implied by central bank's stabilization policies. Our findings provide evidence that the major foreign exchange markets are not efficient.

Something in the Air: Information Density, News Surprises, and Price Jumps

This paper introduces a new information density indicator to provide a more comprehensive understanding of price reactions to news and, more specifically, to the sources of jumps in financial markets. Our information density indicator, which measures the abnormal amount of noisy “ticker” news before scheduled macroeconomic announcements, is significantly related to the likelihood of price jumps and independent of the magnitude of news surprises or pre-announcement trading activity. We therefore interpret this variable as a measure of additional uncertainty in the market, which is resolved by macroeconomic news as “hard” facts.

What do Chinese macro announcements tell us about the world economy?

We examine the effect of scheduled macroeconomic announcements made by China on world financial and commodity futures markets. All announcements related to Chinese manufacturing and industrial output move stock markets, energy and industrial commodities as well as commodity currencies. News about Chinese domestic consumption leaves most markets unaffected, suggesting that market participants view the announcements primarily as a signal of the state of the global economy rather than merely of China's domestic demand. The market response to unexpectedly strong output announcements is not consistent with investors being concerned about tightening of Chinese macroeconomic policy; instead, the world markets view strong Chinese output as a rising tide that lifts all boats.

Uncertainty Premia for Small and Large Risks

We identify an ambiguity premium for US stocks from increases in the option-implied concavity of preferences immediately before scheduled macroeconomic announcements. Our methodology relies on Skiadas' (2013) critique of smooth ambiguity aversion models, which shows that ambiguity aversion has a negligible effect on small risks, defined as risks that are proportional to the holding period. We show that the same critique implies that the effect of smooth ambiguity aversion on large risks, such as macroeconomic announcements, should be of first-order importance. We test for the difference in the effect of ambiguity aversion on the two types of risk by studying the implied concavity of preferences for a representative agent, and confirm that such concavity indeed increases significantly ahead of announcements. Except for smooth ambiguity aversion, no other representative agent model predicts such an increase.

Investor Attention and Macroeconomic News Announcements: Evidence from Stock Index Futures

This paper examines the role of investor attention in scheduled macroeconomic announcements, using intraday data from the Chinese Stock Index futures market. Overall, investor attention, proxied by the Baidu Search Index, is significantly higher in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) than in other macroeconomic news. Consistently, only the CPI announcement has a substantial short‐term impact on the price, liquidity, and volatility of the CSI 300 index futures. In addition, the reactions of futures price to CPI announcements are stronger to bad CPI news, more sensitive in high‐inflation periods, and less pronounced on Fridays, consistent with our investor attention behavior findings. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 36:240–266, 2016