Schedule Risk Research Articles

Development a risk assessment method for dimensional stone quarries

Over the last 20 years, the global production of dimension stones has grown rapidly. Today, seven countries—China, India, Turkey, Iran, Italy, Brazil, and Spain—account for around two-thirds of the world's output of dimension stones. Each one has annual production levels of nine to over twenty-two million tons. Mining operation in general is one of the most hazardous fields of engineering. A large amount of dimensional stone quarries require a special scheme of risk assessment. Risk Breakdown Structure is one of the major stages of risk assessment. In this paper, a detailed structure of risks of the dimension stone quarrying is formed, and divided into 17 main levels and 128 sublevels. The complexity of identifying different parameters made it requisite to use multi-attribute decision-making methods for prioritizing associated risks. As a case study, the main risks of the Ghasre Dasht marble mine are evaluated using the VIKOR method considering 10 major parameters under a Fuzzy environment. The results showed that the economic, Management, and Schedule risks are the most threatening risks of dimensional stone quarrying.

A Study on Exploring and Prioritizing Critical Risks in Construction Project Assessment

According to Mc Kinsey Report (2015) large construction projects take 20% large time and 80% more budget to get finished. This highlights the importance of Risk Assessment to ensure work safety, cost management and quality construction.The study aims to identify and investigate critical risks in the evaluation of construction projects by utilizing the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Weighted Average Index method. The risk factors for project assessment were identified in the following domains: Budget and Cost Management Risk, Schedule and Time Management Risk, Scope and Planning Risk, Safety and Regulatory Compliance Risk, Resource Management Risk, Communication and Stakeholder Management Risk, and Environmental and Sustainability Risk, through an extensive literature review and expert interviews. A survey was distributed to building operators in Hyderabad, India. The Weighted Average Index technique was used to evaluate 180 completed responses and identify risk indicators. To find underlying patterns, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to gain a better understanding of the connections between these variables. Results identified reliance on essential resources, insufficient risk assessment, cash flow restrictions, and safety issues as top considerations, with currency exchange rate swings and delayed information dissemination ranking lower but still substantial. These insights provide essential advise to stakeholders in order to successfully minimize risks and improve project results. By using systematic risk assessment and management methodologies, building projects in Hyderabad and elsewhere may handle hurdles more effectively, assuring long-term sustainability and resilience.

Mitigating Project Schedule Risks by Identifying Subcritical Paths and Variance-Critical Activities

Mitigating Project Schedule Risks by Identifying Subcritical Paths and Variance-Critical Activities

Construction projects: interactions of the causes of delays

PurposeThis review paper aims to highlight the causes of delays (COD) and their interactions in construction projects, potentially aiding in timely completion and waste reduction through early anticipation.Design/methodology/approachForty-seven global literature were examined in detail to identify CODS and its interactions using the systematic literature review (SLR) method that utilised the PRISMA guidelines to ensure the studies reviewed were adequate to safeguard the robustness and comprehensiveness. Three-way analysis, such as Pareto, degree of centrality and loops, was undertaken to identify the critical Level 1,2 and 3 CODS that affect the Construction projects.FindingsThe research findings demonstrate that 65 CODs in eight categories affect construction projects. The CODs act in coherence rather than silos; the CLD displays complex interconnections of 44 factors obtained through the pairwise comparison of the 47 identified literature of the SLR. Through its systematic analysis of interaction loops, this research identified Ten level 1 critical CODs, two second-level critical CODs and 4 Third-level critical CODs. “Contractors' excessive workload/beyond potential/inadequate experience” emerged as the top COD that affects scheduling and project delay.Research limitations/implicationsThe study limitations include using only English articles and a restricted number of databases. However, the chosen databases were reputable and underwent thorough peer review processes. This study may have limitations due to the SLR, which means that factors affecting COD and interactions may vary by country, and future research is suggested for validation.Practical implicationsThis study identified interactions of construction delays that potentially support scheduling risk management during the early stage of the project and reduce waste to improve sustainability. The theoretical implications of SLR-based research include helping develop a framework that would potentially have all COD in the current scenario and aid future academic and industrial research factor-wise and country-wise in aiding sustainability. This will support and provide construction professionals and academia with knowledge of the COD related to factors and their interactions to be considered in the early assessment and management of future projects and improve sustainability.Originality/valueMost literature studies the factors or causes of construction delays that affect construction projects. The CODs primarily do not operate in silos but combine with other causes to enhance their influence on delays. Hence, it is of utmost importance to study the interactions of COD to enhance the knowledge in the construction field that would aid in schedule repair and, in turn, on-time project delivery. The study is the first related to COD and their interactions in construction projects in the digital era.

The future of project management simulation exercises

In recent times project management has become among the most popular post graduate courses at UK Universities particularly for international students. Students consider the skill set useful for employability and transferable for a wide range of future avenues helpful in an uncertain world. However, many start this course with no workplace experience and many of the project management concepts are difficult to grasp or cannot be fully tested except within a realistic project situation. Hence project management simulations or games have become increasingly popular to help resolve this issue. This research study focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of a project management simulation exercise used by a leading UK University within their project management teaching programme at post-graduate level. A review of the literature included recent studies of simulation, the development of project management education thinking, experiential learning theory and the skill set required from modern project managers from the perspective of professional bodies, industry groups and academics. This produced a list of 17 skills or competences or knowledge areas including both hard skills such as schedule management and risk management and soft skills such as communication, collaboration, and innovation. Students from the 2021-22 academic year produced quantitative data via a survey relating to their self-perception of their skill level before and after the simulation. Tutors were interviewed to obtain a deeper insight into the mechanisms of learning, the conditions required and their thoughts on future simulation design development. This qualitative data was used to develop a conceptual model for future project management simulation design. The results show that from the student perspective this learning approach is highly effective with in almost all cases the level of competence started at below average and ended at above average after the simulation. Students consider this approach memorable and enjoyable, were fully engaged and would recommend to their peers. The problem of self-assessment was discussed but a link between student confidence and employability proposed. The conceptual model developed from the qualitative data includes not only simulation design but also game management and tutor skill development. Collaboration between industry partners, game developers and educationalists is proposed to develop the next generation of project management simulation exercises.

A Generic Framework for Managing Schedule and Cost Risks of Construction Activities Using PERT and the EV Technique

Construction projects are complexity, multidisciplinary, have thousands of activities and details, and involve many participants. This intricate and fragmented nature of construction projects coupled with tight budgets and limited resources makes them good candidates for failure and promotes the emergence of risks. These risks must be addressed in the decision-making process and properly managed to mitigate their effect. However, risk management is one of the most difficult tasks and the assessment and analysis of the cost and schedule risks of construction activities are considered the most challenging tasks in the whole risk management process and require careful considerations throughout the life cycle of a project. Despite the high cost associated with managing risk in construction projects, the outcome of this task normally provides fruitful benefits. To address this crucial issue, this study employs a mixed methodology approach utilizing both qualitative and quantitative methods to gather feedback from construction experts and identify schedule and cost risk events associated with construction activities, prioritize their likelihood of occurrence, and suggest responses to mitigate them. The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and earned value (EV) analysis are then used to estimate the expected cost at completion and the risk associated with it. A spreadsheet framework is then developed to help construction practitioners identify the most severe risks and measure their effect on the project’s duration and cost. The framework also suggests risk responses for each of the risk events. The study then provides recommendations to mitigate risks with high impact and severity.

Probability and Impact Perspectives on Cost and Schedule Risks in International Construction Projects: An Empirical Investigation

Probability and Impact Perspectives on Cost and Schedule Risks in International Construction Projects: An Empirical Investigation

A System Dynamics Approach to Feedback Processes in Project Scheduling

Projects, as catalysts for proactive transformation, offer a temporary and adaptable framework that effectively handles complexities (or uncertainties) within a competitive corporate landscape. Hence, the use of an effective project management framework, such as Dynamic Project Scheduling (DPS), is a method to handle intricacies in order to accomplish organizational objectives. DPS refers to a triangle interaction involving baseline scheduling, schedule risk analysis, and project control while supporting schedule adjustment in response to changes and uncertainties. However, there is a lack of information regarding studies that have investigated the feedback mechanisms among DPS components. This study was designed to examine the counterintuitive relationships between these components using system dynamics. The quantities within the DPS system were identified and defined. A casual loop diagram was used to illustrate the interactions among these quantities. Subsequently, a Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD) was created to identify the inputs, states, and flow mechanisms within the DPS. Using the SFD, a system dynamics expression was generated which was then employed to compute the rate of change of the Budgeted Cost of Work Remaining (BCWR) for two projects at different time intervals. The results properly indicated the period of idleness during project execution. The use of BCWR rather than schedule variance provides a more effective visual representation for evaluating performance and tracking progress. The BCWR and planned value exhibit contrasting trends, highlighting the importance of earned value quantities in project control. The use of system dynamics in project management can enhance the planning and scheduling phase, allow project managers to monitor pertinent performance measures, and optimize project outcomes through informed decisions.

Schedule risk model of water intake tunnel construction considering mood factors and its application

The mood index r\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$r$$\\end{document} was used to describe evaluator attitudes regarding the progress of a project that formed the basis of a construction period prediction model. The degrees of pessimism α\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\alpha$$\\end{document} and optimism β\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\beta$$\\end{document} were introduced, and an analysis model was established using α\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\alpha$$\\end{document} and β\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\beta$$\\end{document} to predict the construction period and completion probability Firstly, the absolute construction period of each process of tunnel No. 2 can be obtained according to the measured daily average footage of each process of tunnel No. 1. Secondly, the probability of the stoppage caused by different factors can be obtained after the statistical analysis of the factors responsible for the stoppage of tunnel No. 1. Finally, the expected construction period and completion probability of tunnel No. 2 under different pessimism and optimism conditions are obtained by using the progress risk analysis theory of emotional models and the program evaluation and review technique method. An engineering application showed that the expected construction period increased, and the completion probability decreased considerably with increasing pessimism; the opposite trend occurred as optimism increased. During the process of risk management and control, the prediction model can be used to perform precise quantitative analysis of the expected construction period and completion probability, reduce the blindness of construction management, control decisions of complex giant tunnel projects, and provide a more accurate basis for decision makers to judge risks. The findings of this study can be applied to hydraulic tunnels and can provide a reference for traffic tunnels, railway tunnels, and other similar projects.

Exploring Cost Variability and Risk Management Optimization in Natural Disaster Prevention Projects

The purpose of this study is to analyze the causes of cost variation in natural disaster prevention projects (NDPPs) in Gyeongsangbuk-do, South Korea, and develop tailored cost and risk management strategies. Utilizing a binary logistic regression model, this research uniquely focuses on the Gyeongsangbuk-do region, gathering data from 244 stakeholders through an online survey. The study identifies critical variables influencing cost deviation, including project management risk (PMR), project costing and execution risk (PCER), project execution strategy risk (PESR), construction project risk (CPR), project cost and schedule risk (PCSR), project management challenges (PMCs), and construction project subcontractor and safety management (CPSSM). Significant findings revealed PMR (OR = 3.744, 95% C.I. [1.657, 8.457]), PCER (OR = 5.068, 95% C.I. [2.236, 11.484]), and PESR (OR = 3.447, 95% C.I. [1.853, 6.413]) as the primary causes of cost deviation, alongside the notable impacts of other factors such as CPSSM. The developed predictive model is instrumental for NDPP stakeholders in Gyeongsangbuk-do, providing advanced risk management capabilities and aiding in effective preventive measures. This study not only corroborates theoretical hypotheses from previous research but also offers new insights into cost deviation causes in NDPPs, thereby enhancing strategic decision-making and advancing risk management perspectives.

Research on project schedule optimization model construction and engineering efficiency improvement method

Abstract Project schedule management is an important guarantee for the smooth implementation of the project, which is closely related to the interests of all parties involved in the project, and how to improve the efficiency and quality of the project is a problem that still needs to be solved. In this paper, with reference to the actual situation in the project engineering, the objective function of schedule, cost, quality, and safety is proposed, and the multi-objective optimization mathematical model of the project engineering is obtained through multi-attribute utility theory modeling. Based on the objective function and constraints, the fitness function is established, the constructed model is solved using a genetic algorithm, and safeguard measures are designed to improve the efficiency of project engineering. The empirical results show that the duration and labor demand in the project schedule optimization scheme proposed by the model in this paper are much lower than those in the planning scheme of traditional project schedule optimization methods. Compared to the traditional method, the total cost of the project works decreased by 8.70%, while the quality of the work improved by 0.71%. It shows that the model can improve the quality of project efficiency and enhance the economic benefits of the entire project. The model proposed in this paper makes project schedule optimization more scientific, reasonable, and practical and has certain theoretical and practical significance. In addition, the establishment of a perfect schedule risk management mechanism can be considered in future research in this field to further improve the project schedule optimization model.

Construction Schedule versus Various Constraints and Risks

The organization and planning of construction works are difficult issues due to the complexity, numerous limitations, uncertainty and risks associated with them. Construction planning is usually based on deterministic data. However, numerous studies and analyses of real cases show that a different computational approach is needed—one based on probabilistic data. The computational algorithms of the Time Coupling Method make it possible to introduce probabilistic data generated in the Multivariate Method of Statistical Models (MMSM) and via standard deviations. As a result, a new methodology was created, the Probabilistic Time Coupling Method (PTCM), through which it is possible to obtain a very good forecast of the investment implementation time compared to its real time. The paper presents theoretical considerations, computational schemes and validation exercises of this new method—known as the PTCM. The computational results of the PTCM (with a mapping accuracy prediction of 99%) confirm the effectiveness of the method. The computational algorithms of the PTCM enable the creation of a computational application based on a well-known program, e.g., Microsoft Excel, thanks to which the method can be quickly disseminated in the planning environment and widely used.

Exploring Schedule Risks in Large Airport Operational Readiness: Risk Identification and the Systematic Model

Exploring Schedule Risks in Large Airport Operational Readiness: Risk Identification and the Systematic Model

Assessing Flight Crew Fatigue under Extra Augmented Crew Schedule Using a Multimodality Approach

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the question of how to reduce the risk of viral infection for international airline pilots without increasing the risk of fatigue was a novel and urgent theoretical and practical problem, which had never been encountered in the world civil aviation industry. A new scheduling method implemented by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is the extra augmented crew (EAC) schedule, which avoids crew layover in another country on international flights by extending the maximum duty time and adding two additional crew members to such long-haul flights. In this study, a multi-day flight crew fatigue assessment was conducted to evaluate the impact of EAC flight. We recruited 71 pilots as participants, and their fatigue during EAC flights was measured using a multimodality approach integrating a subjective fatigue report, a psychomotor vigilance task, sleep monitoring, and biomathematical model predictions. The results showed that the subjective fatigue level increased during duty time compared to off-duty time, but still with acceptable levels of under 7, as measured by the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale; objective secondary task performance, as measured by the classic psychomotor vigilance task, showed no differences; pilots were able to get around 6 h of sleep, although they slept less during duty time compared to off-duty time. Model fitting using the FAID biomathematical model of fatigue confirmed that the EAC scheduling was compliant with the FAID tolerance level 91.3% of the time. The results suggest that the EAC flight created some moderate level of increased fatigue but no severe fatigue to cross-continent long-haul flight crews. This research can inform current and future scheduling and fatigue risk control during the pandemic or for future time-sensitive periods.

Robustifying the resource-constrained project scheduling against uncertain durations

This paper studies the resource-constrained project scheduling problem where uncertain durations are caused by various disruptions with unknown probabilistic functions. To achieve a balance between risk control and computational efficiency, we employ distributionally robust optimization minimizing the worst-case Conditional Value-at-Risk when the upper bounds of durations are not explicitly stipulated. We build a path-based two-stage model over a moment-based ambiguity set. The first stage explicitly generates paths satisfying precedence and resource constraints without any information of uncertainties, while the second stage determines the critical paths over the ambiguity set. Thus, we employ an enhanced Benders decomposition to solve this model where a weighted Benders cut may discriminatingly remove arcs on the critical paths. To ease the computation burden, we develop priority constraints for resource flow and a path elimination method to handle the paths generated by the first stage. A numerical experiment shows that this Benders cut together with the path elimination method can solve more complicated instances efficiently. The result further indicates that this model performs better than the classical model of robust optimization when providing upper bounds for durations. We extract some managerial insights that suggest important guidelines for controlling risk in project scheduling.

Incorporating Digital Twins In Early Research and Development of Megaprojects To Reduce Cost and Schedule Risk

ABSTRACTEarly‐stage research and development (ESR&D) plays a vital role in the product development lifecycle, necessitating innovative approaches to address the complex challenges faced during this phase. This article quantifies how the incorporation of digital twin (DT) technology can reduce cost and schedule risk during ESR&D and later lifecycle stages in megaprojects. The Idaho National Laboratory demonstrated the application of DT in the Microreactor AGile Non‐Nuclear Experimental Testbed (MAGNET) operations phase, showcasing the transformative potential of DT in both design and operation. These advances allowed real‐time assessment of construction changes and their impact on project requirements. By focusing on the benefits of digital twinning, this article aims to promote a more positive attitude toward the incorporation of digital twin technologies in the early stages of R&D projects.

Informing Program Management Decisions Using Quantitative Set-Based Design

System design is an exercise in sequential decision-making, with the objective of developing resilient and affordable systems. Throughout the design process, engineering and program managers must balance several competing objectives, such as ensuring design feasibility, minimizing cost, schedule, and performance risk, while simultaneously achieving stakeholder value. Thus, engineering and program managers require design and analysis methods enabling complex and multiobjective design decisions under uncertainty. Unfortunately, there exists limited research providing quantitative methodologies specifically enabling program management decisions using quantitative set-based design. We, therefore, present a quantitative set maturation and uncertainty resolution decision methodology using value-focused multiobjective decision models and model-based engineering practices. This methodology assesses and quantifies uncertainty regarding stakeholder value, cost, requirements, and design maturity for each design set. These metrics facilitate the calculation of the program manager value, which when combined with design set feasibility entropy, enable tradeoff analysis informing design maturation and uncertainty resolution prioritization decisions. We develop and demonstrate our methodology using a model-based unmanned aerial vehicle case study implemented in the ModelCenter modeling environment. This methodology provides program managers an efficient, cost effective, and defensible approach to inform system design maturation and uncertainty resolution decisions enabling the development of resilient and affordable systems.

Status and future plans for C3 R&D

C3 is an opportunity to realize an e + e - collider for the study of the Higgs boson at √s = 250 GeV, with a well defined upgrade path to 550 GeV while staying on the same short facility footprint [2,3]. C3 is based on a fundamentally new approach to normal conducting linear accelerators that achieves both high gradient and high efficiency at relatively low cost. Given the advanced state of linear collider designs, the key system that requires technical maturation for C3 is the main linac. This paper presents the staged approach towards a facility to demonstrate C3 technology with both Direct (source and main linac) and Parallel (beam delivery, damping ring, ancillary component) R&D.The primary goal of the C3 Demonstration R&D Plan is to reduce technical and cost risk by building and operating the key components of C3 at an adequate scale. This R&D plan starts with the engineering design, and demonstration of one cryomodule and will culminate in the construction of a 3 cryomodule linac with pre-production prototypes. This R&D program would also demonstrate the linac rf fundamentals including achievable gradient and gradient stability over a full electron bunch train and breakdown rates. It will also investigate beam dynamics including energy spread, wakefields, and emittance growth. This work will be critical to confirm the suitability of the C3 beam parameters for the physics reach and detector performance in preparation for a Conceptual Design Report (CDR), as well as for follow-on technology development and industrialization.The C3 Demonstration R&D Plan will open up significant new scientific and technical opportunities based on development of high-gradient and high-efficiency accelerator technology. It will push this technology to operate both at the GeV scale and mature the technology to be reliable and provide high-brightness electron beams.The timeline for progressing with C3 technology development will be governed by practical limitations on both the technical progress and resource availability. It consists of four stages: Stage 0) Ongoing fundamental R&D on structure prototypes, damping and vibrations. Stage 1) Advancing the engineering maturity of the design and developing start-to-end simulations including space-charge and wakefield effects. This stage will include testing of strucutres operating at cryogenic temperatures. Beam tests would be performed with high beam current to test full beam loading. Stage 2) Production and testing of the first cryomodule at cryogenic temperatures. This would provide sufficient experimental data to compile a CDR and it is anticipated for Stage 2 to last 3 years and to culminate with the transport of photo-electrons through the first cryomodule. Stage 3) Updates to the engineering design of the cryomodules, production of the second and third cryomodule and their installation. Lower charge and lower emittance beams will be used to investigate emittance growth. The successful full demonstration of the 3 cryomodules to deliver up to a 3 GeV beam and achieve the C3five gradient will allow a comprehensive and robust evaluation of the technical design of C3 as well as mitigate technical, schedule, and cost risks required to proceed with a Technical Design Report (TDR).

A comparison of activity ranking methods for taking corrective actions during project control

Monitoring and controlling projects in progress is key to support corrective actions in case of delays and to deliver these projects timely to the client. Various project control methodologies have been proposed in literature to include activity variability in the project schedule and measure the performance of projects in progress. Much of these studies rely on a schedule risk analysis to rank activities according to their time sensitivity and expected impact on the total project duration.This paper compares two classes of activity ranking methods to improve the corrective action process of projects under uncertainty. Each method ranks activities based on certain criteria and places the highest ranked activity in a so-called action set that is then used to take certain corrective actions. The first method is the analytical based ranking method which relies on exact or approximate analytical calculations to provide a ranking of activities. This analytical ranking method will be compared with a second simulation-based ranking method that relies on Monte Carlo simulations to measure the sensitivity of each activities.Results on a set of artificial projects show that the analytical ranking method and one specific simulation-based ranking outperform all other methods, not only for predicting the contribution of actions on the expected project duration and its variability, but also in the efficiency of the project manager’s control.

Determining Highway Project Contract Time from Project Duration Estimates

Contract time determination (CTD) by state DOTs is critical to a typical design-bid-build project due to its profound impacts on stakeholders in various aspects, such as the actual amount of time allocated to the contractor, contracting parties’ costs, and motorists’ traveling experiences on roads constructed under traffic. Reviewing DOTs’ CTD manuals and guidance shows that determining contract time is more complex than only estimating a reliable project duration from technical inputs such as work quantities, which has been the focus of previous studies. The type of contract time (e.g., working days or calendar days) affects contractors’ schedule risks, and external factors such as political commitments often affect highway projects significantly. However, those issues were rarely considered in past studies. Furthermore, a systematic procedure for determining contract time from a project duration estimate and effective supporting tools are lacking in DOTs’ current practice. This study proposed such a procedure incorporating typical constraints of highway projects identified by reviewing CTD-related documents and conducting seven face-to-face interviews with CTD experts. Other contributions include designing an accompanied computation algorithm to automate the process and developing a freely available Microsoft Excel tool to help DOT practitioners implement the proposed procedure in their operations.