Scenarios Of Landscape Change Research Articles

Broadening the horizon in land use change modelling: Normative scenarios for nature positive futures in Switzerland

Within scenario-based research of social-ecological systems, there has been a growing recognition of the importance of normative scenarios that define positive outcomes for both nature and society. While several frameworks exist to guide the co-creation of normative scenario narratives, examples of operationalizing these narratives in quantitative simulation modelling are still limited. To address this gap, this paper presents an example of how aspects of normative scenarios can be realized within a spatial model of land use and land cover change. This is achieved through a combination of data-driven approaches to encapsulate scenario-specific differences in local and global scale phenomena, as well as iterative expert elicitation to quantify descriptive trends from narratives. This approach is demonstrated with a case study simulating five scenarios of landscape change (three normative and two exploratory) in Switzerland between 2020 and 2060. The resulting maps of future land use and land cover exhibited distinct variations between the scenarios, notably with regard to the prevalence of areas of heterogeneous semi-natural land, such as alpine pastures and grassland, often considered culturally emblematic of Switzerland. While the simulation results were generally consistent with the outcomes expressed in the scenario narratives, following a process of expert feedback, we reflect that there are clear challenges in leveraging such results to elicit further discussions as to the desirability and plausibility of future scenarios. Specifically, the need to summarize spatial simulations in a manner that is easily interpretable and encourages consideration of the broader patterns of change rather than focusing on fine-scale details.

Land use intensification causes the spatial contraction of woody-plant based ecosystem services in southwestern Ethiopia

Integrating biodiversity conservation and food production is vital, particularly in the tropics where many landscapes are highly biodiverse, and where people directly depend on local ecosystems services that are linked to woody vegetation. Thus, it is important to understand how woody vegetation and the benefits associated with it could change under different land-use scenarios. Using a comprehensive, interdisciplinary study in southwestern Ethiopia, we modeled current and future availability of woody plant-based ecosystem services under four scenarios of landscape change. Land-use scenarios with intensified food or cash crop cultivation would lead to the contraction of woody-plant based ecosystem services from farmland to forest patches, increasing pressure on remaining forest patches. This raises questions about the viability of conventional intensification combined with land sparing—where conservation and production are separated—as a viable strategy for conservation in tropical landscapes where woody-plant based ecosystem services are vital to the lives of local communities.

Advancing the understanding of forest conservation dynamics through livelihood and landscape change scenarios: a case study in Chiapas, Mexico.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-023-02965-z.

Tigers on the edge: mortality and landscape change dominate individual-based spatially-explicit simulations of a small tiger population

ContextReductions in the tiger’s (Panthera tigris) range in Southeast Asia have been concurrent with large infrastructure expansion and landscape change. Thailand’s Dong Phayayen-Khao Yai Forest Complex (DPKY), a landscape of tiger conservation priority, may be particularly vulnerable to such changes, necessitating investigations into effects on population dynamics.ObjectivesEvaluate relative effects of landscape change scenarios on the probability of tiger persistence in DPKY and sensitivity of predictions to spatially-explicit mortality risk, landscape resistance, and tiger population density.MethodsWe utilize individual-based, spatially-explicit population modelling to evaluate the trajectory of tiger population dynamics across 11 landscape change scenarios. Concurrently, we evaluate sensitivity of predictions to landscape resistance transformation, maximum population density, and spatially-explicit mortality across 20 generations.ResultsSpatially-explicit mortality risk dominated predictions of population persistence, frequently resulting in population declines/extinction. Adjustment of moderate mortality risk to slightly convex and concave forms shifted extinction rates from 46 to 12% and 85%, respectively. Holding mortality constant at moderate levels, strong negative effects were predicted in landscape change scenarios incorporating road expansion (46%-74% extinction) and construction of dams (52%). Strong negative effects of combined development persisted even when habitat restoration measures were applied (96% extinction). Adjusting resistance and maximum population density had marginal effects.ConclusionsThe high sensitivity and variability of predictions to spatial patterns of mortality risk suggest a population on a proverbial knife’s edge. Our results underscore the importance of incorporating spatial patterns of mortality risk in population modelling, highlighting their potentially dominating influence on population dynamics and extinction risk.

A multi-level assessment of changes in stakeholder constellations, interest and influence on ecosystem services under different landscape scenarios in southwestern Ethiopia

Growing global interconnections facilitate inter-regional flows of ecosystem services (ES). Several studies have focused on the opportunities, risks, and governance of telecoupled ES. However, considerable theoretical, methodological, and empirical gaps exist regarding how future demand for ES will shape trajectories of land use change, the bundles of ecosystem services and related livelihoods provided by future landscapes. This paper explores how multi-level stakeholder constellations, interests, and influence on ES change with a shift in the landscape from the current landscape to alternative future scenario landscapes. We integrated three methodological concepts: space-for-time substitution, scenario planning, and multi-level stakeholder interest and influence mapping. We focused on a smallholder farming landscape in southwestern Ethiopia that is characterized by, and sensitive to, rapid social-ecological change. We build on previous research that developed four plausible scenarios of landscape change for the landscape over the coming 20 years: the “Cash crops”, “Coffee investors”, “Biosphere reserve”, and “Food first” scenarios. We treated the current (focal) landscape as the baseline. Based on space-for-time substitution, we selected four existing landscapes nearby as proxies representing the types of changes described in the four scenarios. In both focal and scenario landscapes, we then identified stakeholders and interviewed them about their interest and influence related to ES (n = 122). Stakeholder constellations, interests, and influences on ES differed considerably between the focal and the scenario landscapes. Generally, a shift to the “Cash crops”, “Coffee investors”, and “Food first” scenarios increased the proportion of local, regional and global private organizations that engaged with the landscape. Many of these stakeholders sought to maximize profit through commercializing a few provisioning ES, often relying on regulatory and economic power to influence the landscape. In contrast, a change to the “Biosphere reserve” scenario increased the proportion of non-governmental organizations engaging with the landscape, and drew on stakeholders from multiple governance scales that were interested in diverse provisioning, cultural, regulating, and supporting ES. Our findings suggest that future landscapes imply divergent changes in stakeholder constellations and interests, both from proximate and remote locations. Landscape management should consider such possible changes in multi-level stakeholder constellations, interests, and influence. Our methodological approach enriches existing scenario narratives with empirically grounded social and governance layers that can improve proactive land management decisions.

Socio-Ecological Futures: Embedded Solutions for Stakeholder-Driven Alternative Futures

Scenarios of landscape change have the capacity to address spatial and temporal issues, current and future trends, and solutions that increase capacity and/or resilience in social-ecological systems and their networks. In this study, we present a resilience framework for food–energy–water systems and demonstrate it with a case study in Magic Valley, Idaho. We formulated scenarios of change based on stakeholder input (qualitative data), researcher-developed models (quantitative data), and validation of plausibility through impact and indicator evaluation. The stakeholder engagement process identified key issues, critical uncertainties, and plausible and viable solutions to future challenges. Specifically, we analyzed cross-scenario futures and their solutions to address water quality issues in the face of climate change, land-use change conflicts, and population shifts in the region. The process activates stakeholder and research-based models to create geospatial alternative futures and their associated timesteps, with embedded solutions, which broadens and improves conventional scenario-based research. The process intends to provide policy-makers, researchers, and scenario facilitators with a strategic framework to activate solutions temporally with a stakeholder-defined suite of scenarios.

Simulating Change in Cultural Landscapes: The Integration of Historic Landscape Characterisation and Computer Modelling

ABSTRACT More than 80 per cent of the world's landscapes are influenced significantly by human activities, and current land-use and land cover trends are likely to increase the rate of landscape change at a significant rate in the near future. To manage and guide landscape change, and an advocacy of positive landscape change – rather than attempts to stop change as in traditional preservationist approaches – requires the identification of threats and opportunities. Tools to do this will need to be based on well-investigated evidence for the long-term past evolution of landscapes and the understanding of possible future scenarios for change. Historic landscape characterisation (HLC) is a GIS-based method employed to interpret and study landscapes with a particular focus on representing and mapping the aspects of landscape character which result from past cultural processes. This paper introduces a new protocol which uses HLC data to model future landscape evolution and to simulate scenarios of landscape change. It describes a computer-based simulation framework derived from landscape ecology and used with HLC datasets during research on a region in southern Turkey. Such integrated modelling protocols have the potential to assist landscape planners to develop holistic and informative approaches to managing landscape change.

Science to inform policy: Linking population dynamics to habitat for a threatened species in Canada

Abstract Boreal forests provide numerous ecological services, including the ability to store large amounts of carbon, and are of significance to global biodiversity. Increases in industrial activities in boreal landscapes since the mid‐20th century have added to concerns over biodiversity loss and climate change. Boreal forests are home to dwindling populations of boreal caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou in Canada, a species at risk that requires large, undisturbed landscapes for persistence. In 2012, the Canadian government defined critical habitat for boreal caribou by relating calf recruitment to disturbances. Some have questioned whether the recruitment relationship can be extrapolated beyond the environmental conditions represented in the analysis. We examined the effects of human disturbances and fire (alone and in combination) on variation in recruitment and adult female survival using data from 58 study areas in Canada. Top models were used in aspatial scenarios of landscape change to evaluate the efficacy of the critical habitat definition in achieving the recovery objectives for boreal caribou in two contrasting landscapes: Little Smoky, dominated by high levels of human disturbances, and the northern boreal shield of Saskatchewan (SK1), dominated by fire. The top recruitment model suggested the negative effect of fire was three to four times smaller than human disturbances. The top adult female survival model included human disturbances only. These results re‐affirm that human disturbances are the primary factor contributing to boreal caribou declines. Our aspatial scenarios suggested that undisturbed habitat would have to increase to ≥68% for Little Smoky to maintain a self‐sustaining population of boreal caribou with some degree of certainty. In contrast, the SK1 population was self‐sustaining with 40% undisturbed habitat when fire disturbance predominates, but could become vulnerable with increases in human disturbances (8%–9%). Policy implications. Boreal caribou are listed as threatened under Canada's Species at Risk Act. Our results suggest that the 65% undisturbed critical habitat designation in Canada's boreal caribou Recovery Strategy may serve as a reasonable proxy for achieving self‐sustaining populations of boreal caribou in landscapes dominated by human disturbances. However, some populations may be less or more vulnerable, as illustrated by the scenarios in a landscape dominated by fire (SK1). Continued population monitoring will be essential to assessing the effectiveness of land management strategies developed for boreal caribou recovery, especially with climate change.

Metrics and Models for Quantifying Ecological Resilience at Landscape Scales

An explicit link between the abiotic environment, the biotic components of ecosystems, and resilience to disturbance across multiple scales is needed to operationalize the concept of ecological resilience. To accomplish this, managers must be able to measure the ecological resilience of current conditions and project resilience under future scenarios of landscape change. The goal of this paper is to present metrics and describe a process for using geospatial data, landscape pattern analysis and landscape dynamic simulation modeling to evaluate ecosystem resilience at management scales. The dynamic equilibria of species abundances, community structure, and landscape patterns that are produced under a given combination of abiotic conditions, such as topography, soils, and climate, can form a foundation to define desired conditions and measure resistance and resilience. The degree of forcing required to push the system from this dynamic range is a measure of resistance, and the rate of return to the dynamic range after the perturbation is a measure of the resilience and recovery of the system. Several tools from the field of landscape ecology are useful in defining the dynamic range of an ecosystem under natural regulation and to measure the forcing required to drive departure and the rate of recovery. Simulation models provide means to quantify the expected range of species abundance, community structure, and landscape patterns under a variety of scenarios, including the natural disturbance regime, current disturbance regime, and possible future regimes under alternative management and climate scenarios. Landscape pattern analysis and multivariate trajectory analysis provide a means to quantify conditions and change vectors relative to this desired range. Together this combination of tools provides a means to define the conditions of a desired state for an ecosystem, to quantify the degree of resistance and resilience of the system to perturbation, and to measure and monitor the departure from the range of natural variability in the system dynamics.

Evaluating scenarios of landscape change for Sunda clouded leopard connectivity in a human dominated landscape

The forests of Borneo support some of the highest biodiversity in the world, yet have experienced among the world's highest rates of deforestation. Such rapid forest loss and associated fragmentation reduces the availability of suitable habitat for wildlife and creates dispersion barriers. Understanding the prevalence and impacts of this anthropogenic disturbance, and developing ways in which to mitigate such changes, is thus critical to the conservation of Borneo's wildlife. Here, we applied a path selection function with conditional logistic regression and used it to develop a resistance surface for a population of Sunda clouded leopards (Neofelis diardi) residing within a fragmented and human dominated landscape in Malaysian Borneo. We used cumulative resistant kernel and factorial least-cost path analysis to predict how connectivity may change in response to four future scenarios involving conversion of remaining unproductive forest to palm oil plantations, conversion of unproductive palm oil back to forest, and restoration of a riparian buffer zone along the river, and combination of the two forest restoration scenarios. We showed that Sunda clouded leopard movement is facilitated by forest canopy cover and resisted by non-forest vegetation, particularly recently cleared/planted and underproductive (flooded) plantation areas with low canopy closure. By combining resistant kernel and factorial least-cost path modelling we mapped core areas and the main linkages among them, and identified several key pinch points that may limit regional connectivity of the population. We predict that Sunda clouded leopard connectivity in the region can be greatly enhanced through the protection of privately owned forest patches and the reforestation of underproductive oil palm plantation areas, and creation of a forested buffer zone along the river. Conversely, we show that if the region's unprotected forests were to be converted to plantations then connectivity across the Kinabatangan floodplain would be significantly reduced.

Cultural landscapes of the future: using agent-based modeling to discuss and develop the use and management of the cultural landscape of South West Devon

ContextHedgerows are typical landscape features of high environmental and cultural value that often have been sacrificed for agricultural intensification and scale enlargement.ObjectivesWe studied the dynamics of hedgerow quality over time in a case study area renowned for its hedgerow landscapes: South West Devon (UK) answering the following research questions: (1) how does the imperative of scale enlargement affect hedgerow quality? and (2) to what extent can cultural landscape degradation be countered by targeted policies?MethodsWe applied an agent-based modeling approach, parameterized with a site specific survey, to explore and discuss outcomes of future landscape change with stakeholders and co-designed preferred scenarios of landscape change during a workshop.ResultsOutcomes suggested that in the case-study area, scale enlargement has a negative effect on hedgerow quality when agri-environment scheme subsidies (AES) are low. In contrast, if the level of AES enrollment is high, scale enlargement can have a positive effect on hedgerow quality, as large holders are more likely to enroll for AES. Stakeholders acknowledged the need for agricultural intensification, but at the same time valued biodiversity and environmental value of the landscape in South West Devon.ConclusionCurrent AES are able to retain a decent hedgerow quality. With lower AES, scale enlargement can have an invigorative effect on hedgerow quality as land managers of larger farms will be less likely to join AES As an addition to AES, harvesting wood fuel from coppiced hedgerows appears a promising way to incentivize rejuvenating hedgerow management without governmental subsidies.

Modeling direct and indirect climate change impacts on ecological networks: a case study on breeding habitat of Dutch meadow birds

Context Climate change can directly affect habitats within ecological networks, but may also have indirect effects on network quality by inducing land use change. The relative impact of indirect effects of climate change on the quality of ecological networks currently remains largely unknown. Objectives The objective of this study was to determine the relative impact of direct and indirect effects of climate change on a network of breeding habitat of four meadow bird species (Black-tailed godwit, Common redshank, Eurasian oystercatcher and Northern lapwing) in the Netherlands. Methods Habitat models were developed that link meadow bird breeding densities to three habitat characteristics that are sensitive to environmental change (landscape openness, land use and groundwater level). These models were used to assess the impact of scenarios of landscape change with and without climate change on meadow bird breeding habitat quality for a case study area in the peat meadow district of the Netherlands. Results All scenarios led to significantly reduced habitat quality for all species, mainly as a result of conversion of grassland to bioenergy crops, which reduces landscape openness. Direct effects of climate change on habitat quality were largely absent, indicating that especially human adaptation to climate change rather than direct effects of climate change was decisive for the degradation of ecological network quality for breeding meadow birds. Conclusions We conclude that scenario studies exploring impacts of climate change on ecological networks should incorporate both land use change resulting from human responses to climate change and direct effects of climate change on landscapes.

Understanding the impact of mountain landscapes on water balance in the upper Heihe River watershed in northwestern China

Estimating the impact of mountain landscape on hydrology or water balance is essential for the sustainable development strategies of water resources. Specifically, understanding how the change of each landscape influences hydrological components will greatly improve the predictability of hydrological responses to mountain landscape changes and thus can help the government make sounder decisions. In the paper, we used the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model to conduct hydrological modeling in the upper Heihe River watershed, along with a frozen-soil module and a glacier melting module to improve the simulation. The improved model performed satisfactorily. We concluded that there are differences in the runoff generation of mountain landscape both in space and time. About 50% of the total runoff at the catchment outlet were generated in mid-mountain zone (2,900–4,000 m asl), and water was mainly consumed in low mountain region (1,700–2,900 m asl) because of the higher requirements of trees and grasses. The runoff coefficient was 0.37 in the upper Heihe River watershed. Barren landscape produced the largest runoff yields (52.46% of the total runoff) in the upper Heihe River watershed, followed by grassland (34.15%), shrub (9.02%), glacier (3.57%), and forest (0.49%). In order to simulate the impact of landscape change on hydrological components, three landscape change scenarios were designed in the study. Scenario 1, 2 and 3 were to convert all shady slope landscapes at 2,000–3,300 m, 2,000–3,700 m, and 2,000–4,000 m asl respectively to forest lands, with forest coverage rate increased to 12.4%, 28.5% and 42.0%, respectively. The runoff at the catchment outlet correspondingly declined by 3.5%, 13.1% and 24.2% under the three scenarios. The forest landscape is very important in water conservation as it reduced the flood peak and increased the base flow. The mountains as “water towers” play important roles in water resources generation and the impact of mountain landscapes on hydrology is significant.

Consequences of correlations between habitat modifications and negative impact of climate change for regional species survival

While several empirical and theoretical studies have clearly shown the negative effects of climate or landscape changes on population and species survival only few of them addressed combined and correlated consequences of these key environmental drivers. This also includes positive landscape changes such as active habitat management and restoration to buffer the negative effects of deteriorating climatic conditions. In this study, we apply a conceptual spatial modelling approach based on functional types to explore the effects of both positive and negative correlations between changes in habitat and climate conditions on the survival of spatially structured populations. We test the effect of different climate and landscape change scenarios on four different functional types that represent a broad spectrum of species characterised by their landscape level carrying capacity, the local population turnover rates at the patch level (K-strategies vs. r-strategies) and dispersal characterstics. As expected, simulation results show that correlated landscape and climatic changes can accelerate (in case of habitat loss or degradation) or slow down (in case of habitat gain or improvement) regional species extinction. However, the strength of the combined changes depends on local turnover at the patch level, the overall landscape capacity of the species, and its specific dispersal characteristics. Under all scenarios of correlated changes in habitat and climate conditions we found the highest sensitivity for functional types representing species with a low landscape capacity but a high population growth rate and a strong density regulation causing a high turnover at the local patch level. The relative importance of habitat loss or habitat degradation, in combination with climate deterioration, differed among the functional types. However, an increase in regional capacity revealed a similar response pattern: For all types, habitat improvement led to higher survival times than habitat gain, i.e. the establishment of new habitat patches. This suggests that improving local habitat quality at a regional scale is a more promising conservation strategy under climate change than implementing new habitat patches. This conceptual modelling study provides a general framework to better understand and support the management of populations prone to complex environmental changes.

Multiple-Case Study of Landscape Visualizations as a Tool in Transdisciplinary Planning Workshops

Olaf Schroth, Ulrike Wissen Hayek, Eckart Lange, Stephen R. J. Sheppard and Willy A. Schmid

Spatial metrics – useful indicators for society or mainly fun tools for landscape ecologists?

There is a pronounced demand for indicators to measure progress towards policy aims. Further, there is an increasing interest in documenting changes in the surrounding landscapes, and comparing trends of change in space and time, e.g. through landscape monitoring. Based on the theoretical framework of landscape ecology, this has initiated the development of spatial metrics. Typically, remote sensing information, GIS, and spatial metrics are used to provide a range of measures of landscape content and composition assumed to be of importance to various processes, e.g. changes in species distributions. The ability to quantify and compare different landscapes, link spatial patterns to ecological processes, and predict the outcome of different landscape change scenarios is highly desirable in itself. In addition, it is interesting to analyse whether the same measures could be used as indicators to facilitate communication between scientists and policy makers and/or management. However, a review of the current literature suggests that although progress has been made, a number of critical voices have also been raised, in particular questioning the use of spatial metrics in this context. In general, continued effort is therefore required to develop well-functioning landscape indicators.

An integrative approach for analysing landscape dynamics in diverse cultivated and natural mountain areas

Our landscape can be regarded as a development process that is affected and subsequently shaped by a series of different environmental and human-induced factors. However, to date, concrete data about the impact of each of these factors are still missing. One key reason for this is that methods of acquisition and evaluation of these factors inherently have differences, thereby preventing meaningful comparative analyses. This study presents an integrative methodical approach that bridges many of these gaps. Our approach also has the advantages of being generally applicable while delivering easily interpretable results that also allow comparisons between diverse geographical regions. The indicators used enable all major features of landscape change, e.g. changes in land use, landscape structuring, habitat settings, and urban sprawl, to be accurately monitored and provide high-quality realistic results that were validated in our study site, South Tyrol (North Italy). Indicators were selected for both their further subdivision, e.g. monocrops and different features of mixed crops, and their easy to ascertain hierarchically structured feature classification, e.g. land cover. Furthermore, our use of ecoregions enables better comparison of aspects of landscape development for geographical regions having diverse socio-economic and ecological conditions. Our methodical approach can be used as a basis not only for creating landscape change scenarios, but also for determining the environmental and human-induced factors involved and being able to list them in order of importance. Further the detected striking difference between the mapped land-use data and the official census data suggests a validation of the methodical approach in context of the national agriculture census.

The influence of forested landscape attributes on hunter site choice and participation

This work illustrates the use of a non-timber valuation model linked to a number-of-trips prediction model to examine the significance of various forestland attributes and hunter characteristics on hunting site choice and participation in the Foothills Model Forest in west-central Alberta. Data were obtained through a survey that featured determination of hunting trip locations over a three-year period. Clearcut density, fire density, two access variables and, in particular, habitat suitability for ungulate game species were found to be significant variables that influenced hunter site choice. Welfare estimates determined by the number-of-trips prediction model highlight the applicability of the linked model in presenting a more complete picture of the effects of two landscape change scenarios. These scenarios show how the models could be used by land managers to balance economic and social benefits in a bid to move towards sustainable development of forest resources. Key words: non-timber valuation, revealed preference, habitat suitability, random utility theory, landscape attributes, hunter behaviour, multinomial logit

Calibrating a forest landscape model to simulate frequent fire in Mediterranean-type shrublands

In Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), fire disturbance influences the distribution of most plant communities, and altered fire regimes may be more important than climate factors in shaping future MTE vegetation dynamics. Models that simulate the high-frequency fire and post-fire response strategies characteristic of these regions will be important tools for evaluating potential landscape change scenarios. However, few existing models have been designed to simulate these properties over long time frames and broad spatial scales. We refined a landscape disturbance and succession (LANDIS) model to operate on an annual time step and to simulate altered fire regimes in a southern California Mediterranean landscape. After developing a comprehensive set of spatial and non-spatial variables and parameters, we calibrated the model to simulate very high fire frequencies and evaluated the simulations under several parameter scenarios representing hypotheses about system dynamics. The goal was to ensure that observed model behavior would simulate the specified fire regime parameters, and that the predictions were reasonable based on current understanding of community dynamics in the region. After calibration, the two dominant plant functional types responded realistically to different fire regime scenarios. Therefore, this model offers a new alternative for simulating altered fire regimes in MTE landscapes.

Evaluating population persistence of Delmarva fox squirrels and potential impacts of climate change

In addition to the combined effects of forest fragmentation, habitat loss, and population isolation on the long-term persistence of many species including the endangered Delmarva fox squirrel ( Sciurus niger cinereus), future changes in climate may make existing habitats less productive and more variable. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the Delmarva Peninsula of the mid-Atlantic USA, reveals a trend for longer durations of potentially unfavorable conditions for fox squirrel population growth. We used a stochastic population matrix model and available life history information to assess population extinction risk for the Delmarva fox squirrel under a number of scenarios of landscape change and environmental variation, including uncertainties in the future range of climate patterns. Patch size (carrying capacity) was the most important factor influencing persistence of isolated populations. Extinction risk increased markedly across all patch sizes when year to year patterns in environmental variability were autocorrelated to match regional patterns in the PDSI. Increased autocorrelation matching the regional PSDI increased extinction risk, ranging from a factor of 5 to a factor of over 100 in some scenarios when compared to uncorrelated patterns in environmental variability. Increasing the range of variation in survival probabilities was less important to persistence, but its effect also increased when year-to-year changes were autocorrelated in time. Comparing model results with the size and landscape configuration of currently occupied patches on the Delmarva Peninsula showed that many existing populations are above the size threshold identified by these simulations for long-term persistence under current conditions, but these may become vulnerable should climate variability increase and adverse conditions persist for several years at a time.