Scenarios Of Economic Development Research Articles

Driving forces and prediction of urban open spaces morphology: The case of Shanghai, China using geodetector and CA-Markov model

Urban open spaces offer both environmental and social benefits. However, comprehensive studies that integrate both quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the factors driving change in these spaces and their long-term predictions are lacking. Most existing studies concentrate on land-use development rather than conducting empirical research specific to urban open spaces in Shanghai. This study addresses this gap by employing a geographic detector (geodetector) to analyze the influence of various driving factors on open-space changes. These factors were then used as weight values in a multicriteria CA-Markov model to simulate and predict change in Shanghai's urban open spaces by 2050. The advantage of analyzing driving forces lies in their ability to capture the multifactor synergy influencing change in urban open spaces, aligning with the aim of this study to quantitatively evaluate the interaction between natural, climatic, and socioeconomic factors. Additionally, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 10 policymakers and planners to assess the reliability of the quantitative predictions. The results indicate that socioeconomic factors are the primary drivers of change in urban open spaces. Specifically, the interaction between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and population density (PD) emerged as the most influential variables. For prediction outcomes, the unconstrained scenario predicts a decrease in open-space area from 5610.94 km2 in 2020 to 5124.36 km2 in 2050. The planning intervention scenario anticipates minimal changes in Shanghai's total urban open-space area with almost no floating changes. However, the economic development scenario predicts a rapid decline in open spaces. Experts and planners evaluated these three scenarios and confirmed the reliability and accuracy of the prediction models. The methods and findings of this study can support zoning planning for urban open-space systems in other cities and regions.

Changes in Wuhan’s Carbon Stocks and Their Spatial Distributions in 2050 under Multiple Projection Scenarios

Urbanization in the 21st century has reshaped carbon stock distributions through the expansion of cities. By using the PLUS and InVEST models, this study predicts land use and carbon stocks in Wuhan in 2050 using three future scenarios. Employing local Moran’s I, we analyze carbon stock clustering under these scenarios, and the Getis–Ord Gi* statistic identifies regions with significantly higher and lower carbon-stock changes between 2020 and 2050. The results reveal a 2.5 Tg decline in Wuhan’s carbon stock from 2000 to 2020, concentrated from the central to the outer city areas along the Yangtze River. By 2050, the ecological conservation scenario produced the highest carbon stock prediction, 77.48 Tg, while the economic development scenario produced the lowest, 76.4 Tg. High-carbon stock-change areas cluster in the north and south, contrasting with low-change area concentrations in the center. This research provides practical insights that support Wuhan’s sustainable development and carbon neutrality goals.

Multi-scenario analysis and optimization strategy of ecological security pattern in the Weihe river basin

For many years, the Weihe River Basin (WRB) has struggled to achieve a balance between ecological protection and economic growth. Constructing an Ecological Security Pattern (ESP) is extremely important for ensuring ecological security (ES). This study employed a coupling of multi-objective programming (MOP) and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to project land use change (LUCC) in 2040 across three scenarios. Leveraging circuit theory, we generated ecological corridors and identified key ecological nodes, enabling a comparative analysis of ESPs within the WRB. The main results showed that: (1) The Ecological Protection (EP) scenario showed the highest proportions of forestland, grassland, and water, indicating an optimal ecological environment. Conversely, the Economic Development (ED) scenario features the greatest proportion of construction land, particularly evident in the rapid urban expansion. The Natural Development (ND) scenario exhibits a more balanced change, aligning closely with historical trends. (2) The ecological source areas in the EP scenario is 13,856.70 km2, with the largest and most intact patch area. The ecological source patches that have been identified in the ED scenario exhibit fragmentation and dispersion, encompassing a total area of 8018.82 km2. The ecological source areas in the ND scenario is most similar to the actual situation in 2020, encompassing 8474.99 km2. (3) The EP scenario demonstrates minimal landscape fragmentation. The ED scenario presents a more intricate corridor pattern, hindering species and energy flow efficiency. The ND scenario is more similar to the actual distribution in 2020. Protecting and restoring key ecological nodes, and ensuring the integrity and connectivity of ecological sources are crucial for ESP optimization in various scenarios. Combining all results, we categorize the WRB's spatial pattern into "three zones, three belts, and one center" and offer strategic suggestions for ecological preservation, promoting sustainable local ecological and socioeconomic development.

Construction of Ecological Security Patterns and Evaluation of Ecological Network Stability under Multi-Scenario Simulation: A Case Study in Desert–Oasis Area of the Yellow River Basin, China

Land use change has a significant impact on the sustainability of ecosystems, and ecological security patterns (ESPs) can improve environmental quality through spatial planning. This study explored a multi-scenario ESP framework by integrating future land use simulation (FLUS) and minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) for urban agglomeration along the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in Ningxia. The research involved simulating land use change in 2035 under four development scenarios, identifying ecological security networks, and evaluating network stability for each scenario. The study revealed that the ecological sources under different development scenarios, including a natural development scenario (NDS), an economic development scenario (EDS), a food security scenario (FSS), and an ecological protection scenario (EPS), were 834.82 km2, 715.46 km2, 785.56 km2, and 1091.43 km2, respectively. The overall connectivity values (OG) for these scenarios were 0.351, 0.466, 0.334, and 0.520, respectively. It was found that under an EPS, the ESPs had the largest area of ecological sources and the most stable ecological network structure, which can effectively protect natural habitats. This study provides a valuable method for identifying ESPs that can respond to diversity and the uncertainty of future development. It can assist decision-makers in enhancing the ecological quality of the study area while considering various development scenarios.

Evaluating the impact of various driving factors on future water supply and demands

ABSTRACT The mismatch between water supply and demand challenges sustainable human–environment development. Understanding future water supply–demand dynamics and underlying mechanisms is crucial for water resource sustainability. This study presents a framework for analyzing water supply–demand dynamics and their driving mechanisms under future land use/land cover (LULC) changes in China's Han River (HR) Basin using PLUS, InVEST, and geographic detector models. Results show precipitation increased slowly (0.64) from 2000 to 2020, while potential evapotranspiration slightly decreased (−0.02). By 2030, under the scenarios of the natural increase scenario (NIS), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS), significant changes are projected in forest, cropland, and construction land. The future impact of LULC on water supply is concentrated between 0.17 and 0.45%, while its effect on water demand is significant, approximately 10%. The water security index (WSI) in the HR Basin gradually declined from 0.118 to 0.078. Particularly in the EPS scenario, WSI improves (0.103). In the future, LULC will increasingly influence water yield in conjunction with other factors, but excessive precipitation will dampen the impact of other factors on water yield. This study enhances understanding of water resource balance evolution, enabling sustainable LULC development for ecological conservation and economic coordination.

Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Storage in Jiangxi Province Based on PLUS-InVEST Model

Land-use changes are an important factor affecting the change in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Exploring the relationship between land-use changes and carbon storage provides reliable data support for optimizing regional land-use structure and maintaining regional carbon balance. Taking Jiangxi Province as an example, we first analyzed the land-use changes; then simulated the land-use pattern under three scenarios (i.e., natural development, ecological priority, and economic development scenarios) in 2030 based on the PLUS model; and finally estimated the carbon storage change in the past (i.e., 1990-2020) and future periods (i.e., three scenarios in 2030) using the InVEST model, analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics, and proposed the corresponding suggestions. The results showed:① The carbon storage in Jiangxi Province showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2020, with a total reduction of 4.58×107 t. The increase in the water bodies and construction land and the decrease in cultivated land, woodland, grassland, and unused land was the major cause. ② The carbon storage under natural development, ecological priority, and economic development scenarios in Jiangxi Province in 2030 were 2.20×109, 2.24×109 and 2.19×109 t, respectively. ③ The carbon storage under the three scenarios showed similar spatial characteristics, wherein the high carbon storage was distributed in northern, northwest, and western regions, and the low carbon storage was distributed near the central region. These results can provide data support for future land spatial planning and improving the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in Jiangxi Province.

Dynamic response of carbon storage to future land use/land cover changes motivated by policy effects and core driving factors

Abstract The evolution of land use/land cover (LULC) patterns significantly influences the dynamics of carbon storage (CS) in terrestrial ecosystems. In response to future environmental changes, however, most studies fail to synthesize the effects of policy pathways and evolving core driving factors on LULC projections. This article presents a systematic framework to assess the dynamic response of the terrestrial ecosystem CS to future LULC changes. After investigating spatiotemporal characteristics and driving forces, policy effects and future core driving factors are integrated into the improved Markov–future land use simulation model to project LULC across diverse scenarios. Then the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Service and Tradeoff model is coupled to explore CS dynamics with LULC changes. This framework was applied to the Weihe River Basin. The finding reveals that the overall proportion of cultivated land, forestland and grassland is above 85% and is significantly influenced by policy effects. Precipitation, temperature, population density and gross domestic product are core driving factors of LULC changes. Equal-interval projection is a viable approach to mitigate policy impacts by avoiding error propagation while coupling future core driving factors to improve LULC projection accuracy. Ecological protection should be emphasized in the future. The rate of increase in CS is 1.25 and 1.63 times higher than the historical trend and economic development scenario, respectively, which alleviates carbon loss from the expansion of built-up land. This research provides a valuable reference for future insight and optimization of ecological conservation strategies.

Evolution characteristics and multi-scenario prediction of habitat quality in Yulin City based on PLUS and InVEST models

As a major energy city in China, Yulin City has faced huge challenges to the ecological environment with its rapid economic development and rapid urbanization. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the impact of land use changes on habitat quality. Based on three periods of land use data in Yulin City in 1995, 2005 and 2015, the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use changes in 2015. The measured kappa coefficient was 0.8859, which met the simulation accuracy requirements. By setting development zone boundaries and adjusting parameters, three progressive scenarios are designed to predict the spatial distribution of land use in Yulin City in 2035. The InVEST model was used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of Yulin City’s habitat quality in the past 20 years and evaluate the distribution of Yulin City’s habitat quality under three scenarios after 20 years. The results are as follows: (1) During the study period, construction land in Yulin City expanded rapidly, with an area increase of 380.87 km2 in 20 years, and ecological land gradually shrank. (2) The land use simulation results of Yulin City under various scenarios in 2035 show that future land use changes in Yulin City will mainly be concentrated in the central and western regions. (3) During the study period, the habitat quality of Yulin City was at a medium level and the overall habitat quality showed a downward trend. Spatially, the degree of habitat quality degradation in Yulin City showed a characteristic of gradually decreasing from West to East. (4) By 2035, under the scenario of suitable urban economic development, Yulin City’s habitat quality has been improved to a certain extent, which not only protects ecological security but also meets the demand for construction land for urban development. The results of this study help the government better understand the evolution of land use and habitat quality in Yulin City in the past 20 years, and provide theoretical support and reference for the formulation of Yulin City’s ecological environment protection policies and the implementation of ecological protection work under the current land spatial planning.

Characterization and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Habitat Quality Evolution in the Bosten Lake Watershed Based on the InVEST and PLUS Models

Habitat quality is an important basis for human well-being and the achievement of sustainable development. Based on land-use data for the Bosten Lake Basin in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2022, the PLUS and InVEST models are applied in this study to predict and analyze land-use changes and explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the region’s habitat quality. Additionally, we use a geographic detector model to reveal the drivers of spatial variation in habitat quality. The results show that: (1) Land use in Bosten Lake Basin is dominated by grassland and bare land, with an area share of 93.21%. Habitat quality shows a trend of degradation followed by improvement, with a spatial pattern of high in the northwest and low in the southeast. (2) Habitat quality in 2030 increased from 2022 in all cases, with a mean of 0.354 for the natural development scenario, a maximum of 0.355 for the ecological development scenario, and a minimum of 0.353 for the economic development scenario. (3) The main drivers affecting habitat quality in the Bosten Lake watershed are DEM, mean annual precipitation (MAP), and GDP per capita. X1∩X4 (0.50) and X4∩X10 (0.51) are the interaction factors with the largest dominant effect in 2000, 2010 and 2020, respectively.

Simulation and Attribution Analysis of Spatial–Temporal Variation in Carbon Storage in the Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains, China

Intensive economic and human activities present challenges to the carbon storage capacity of terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in arid regions that are sensitive to climate change and ecologically fragile. Therefore, accurately estimating and simulating future changes in carbon stocks on the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains (NSEBTM) holds great significance for maintaining ecosystem stability, achieving high-quality development of the economic belt, and realizing the goal of “carbon neutrality” by 2050. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the NSEBTM carbon stocks in arid regions from 1990 to 2050, utilizing a combination of multi-source data and integrating the Patch-generating Land use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models. Additionally, an attribution analysis of carbon stock changes is conducted by leveraging land use data. The findings demonstrate that (1) the NSEBTM predominantly consists of underutilized land, accounting for more than 60% of the total land area in the NSEBTM. Unused land, grassland, and water bodies exhibit a declining trend over time, while other forms of land use demonstrate an increasing trend. (2) Grassland serves as the primary reservoir for carbon storage in the NSEBTM, with grassland degradation being the leading cause of carbon loss amounting to 102.35 t over the past three decades. (3) Under the ecological conservation scenario for 2050 compared to the natural development scenario, there was a net increase in carbon storage by 12.34 t; however, under the economic development scenario compared to the natural development scenario, there was a decrease in carbon storage by 25.88 t. By quantitatively evaluating the land use change in the NSEBTM and its impact on carbon storage in the past and projected for the next 30 years, this paper provides scientific references and precise data support for the territorial and spatial decision making of the NSEBTM, thereby facilitating the achievement of “carbon neutrality” goals.

Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China

In recent years, global climate change and human alterations to land use have led to a decrease in ecosystem services, making ecosystems more vulnerable. However, unlike the well-established risk assessment frameworks used in natural disaster research, the concept of ecological risks arising from changes in land use is still in its early stages, with its nuances and assessment methodologies yet to be clearly defined. This study proposes a new framework for assessing ecological risks resulting from changes in land use in the Tarim River Basin. The framework employs a coupled PLUS and Invest model to evaluate the ecological risks of land use change under three development scenarios projected for the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang by 2035. The findings indicate that: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the predominant land use types in the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang were primarily unused land, followed by grassland and cropland. Conversely, grassland, water, and construction land were relatively less prevalent. During this period, the area of unused land and cultivated land increased, while grassland, forest land, and water exhibited a declining trend. Moving forward, under the three scenarios from 2020 to 2035, land use changes in the study area are characterized by the expansion of cropland and unused land, coupled with a significant decrease in grassland area, while other land categories demonstrate minor fluctuations. (2) From 2020 to 2035, across various scenarios, the total ecosystem service within the study area demonstrates an overall increasing trend in both the northern and southern marginal zones. Specifically, under the baseline scenario, the total amount of ecosystem services in the study area decreased by 15.247% compared to 2020. Similarly, under the economic development scenario, this decrease amounted to 13.358% compared to 2020. Conversely, under the ecological protection scenario, the decrease reached 19.852% compared to 2020. (3) The structure of ecological risk levels from 2020 to 2035, across multiple scenarios, demonstrates a consistent pattern, characterized by a predominant proportion of moderate risk. Conversely, other risk levels occupy relatively smaller proportions of the area.

Formation of economic indicators of national security in the context of business digitalization and changes in the economy

Abstract. Today, Ukraine's economic development is taking place in the context of market competition, negative phenomena in the foreign economic sphere, and most importantly, russia's full-scale military aggression. At the same time, economic relations in the country are characterized by such undesirable phenomena as the shadow economy, economic inequality of business participants, growth of external debts, decline in economic activity, deficits of the state and territorial budgets, unprofitability of business entities, migration processes, unemployment, and poverty. The article examines the content of the concept of economic security in the context of the national security component, which is determined by a set of tasks based on the implementation of the Economic Security Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2025. The author analyzes the dynamics of indicators that determine the state of economic security of Ukraine and the existing threats in the national economy. In order to monitor the state of economic security in accordance with the Strategy, it is proposed to fulfill the task of its scientific support, to develop methodological recommendations and a mechanism for interpreting the integral indicator. At present, there is no information on the level of economic security of Ukraine on the official websites of the legislative and executive branches of government since 2021. The system of reservations regarding the indicators for assessing the economic security of Ukraine proposed in the Strategy is substantiated. A simplified list of indicators for monitoring the state of economic security is defined and interval signs of economic development scenarios at the level of optimistic, pessimistic and basic characteristics are developed for the integral indicator. The assessment of the status of economic security objects (the State, territorial communities, types of economic activity, business entities) is significantly influenced by the development of digitalization of the economy. It is established that in our country the processes of digitalization do not have a cross-cutting connection «business entities – types of economic activity – territorial communities – the State», but arise and develop locally within individual business and government structures.

A Multi-Objective Scenario Study of County Land Use in Loess Hilly Areas: Taking Lintao County as an Example

Land use serves as a connecting link between human activities and the natural ecology of the surface; under the multi-objective background of national policies and dual-carbon tasks, land use transformation is studied and simulated in multiple scenarios, and carbon stock changes are analyzed based on future land use to explore the path for a region to achieve multi-objective coordination. Drawing upon land use data from 2000 to 2020 in Lintao County, Gansu Province, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the dynamics governing land use transformation. Subsequently, employing the FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) model, we simulated the projected land use for Lintao County in 2035 under various scenarios. Furthermore, we utilized the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model to assess the change in carbon stock within the study area under each scenario. These analyses aim to furnish a robust scientific foundation for future land use planning endeavors in Lintao County. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The land use transition in Lintao County from 2000 to 2020 showed the strongest motivation for construction land growth, with continued rapid growth in the scale of urban land and other construction land and relatively slow growth in the land for rural settlement areas, while cropland and water areas continued to decrease, forest land grew slowly, the magnitude of land use change exhibited a higher intensity in river townships compared with mountainous townships. (2) The simulation results of cropland protection scenario (CPS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), economic development scenario (EDS), and comprehensive development scenario (CDS) in 2035 are better. Among them, the CDS, which considers various types of higher-level strategic requirements and can compensate for the single-goal nature of the single-demand scenario, demonstrates a higher level of rationality in the land use pattern. (3) The total carbon stock in descending order is the EPS, CDS, EDS, and CPS. Among these, the CDS is at a higher level of total carbon stock, and the changes in carbon stock in each land use site are more balanced, which is an ideal carbon stock state and a scenario more in line with multi-objective coordination.

Research on driving mechanism and prediction of electric power carbon emission in Gansu Province under dual-carbon target

The electric power industry is a key industry for the country to achieve the double carbon target. Its low carbon development has a double effect on this industry and helps other industries to achieve the carbon peak target. This paper firstly uses the IPCC inventory method to calculate carbon emissions in the production phase of the power industry in Gansu Province from 2000 to 2019, followed by the ridge regression method and the STIRPAT model to analyse the quantitative impact of six major drivers on carbon emissions, and finally, the scenario analysis method is used to forecast carbon emissions in this phase. The results show that the carbon emissions of Gansu Province show a trend of rising and then falling, and reached a peak of 65.66 million tons in 2013. For every 1% increase in population effect, urbanisation level, affluence, clean energy generation share, technology level and industrial structure, carbon emissions will grow by 4.939%, 0.625%, 0.224%, − 0.259%, 0.063% and 0.022% respectively. Because of the clean energy advantage in Gansu Province, the low-carbon development scenario will continue to have low carbon emissions during the scenario cycle, which can be reduced to 53.454 million tons in 2030; the baseline scenario will achieve a carbon peak in 2025, with a peak of 62.627 million tons; the economic development scenario has not achieved carbon peak during the scenario cycle, and carbon emissions will increase to 73.223 million tons in 2030.

Energy Transition in Vietnam: A Strategic Analysis and Forecast

Energy landscapes in Asia and other regions are currently undergoing a transformation aimed at increasing the share of clean energy sources. This article analyzes and forecasts the electricity demand in Vietnam, examining existing constraints that necessitate the shift from coal to renewable energy sources. The rapid economic growth in Vietnam is driving a substantial surge in electricity demand, projected to reach 124 thousand MW by 2030 according to the National Electricity Plan, positioning Vietnam second in Southeast Asia. This surge poses a significant challenge to national energy security, given the impracticality of effective coal mining in the country and the imperative to develop renewable energy sources. Anticipating the changes in Vietnam’s energy mix by 2050, this study foresees a substantial reduction in dependence on coal production. Government investment and green energy investment funds such as JETP are strategically directed towards renewable energy sources, including solar, wind, biomass, hydrogen energy, and efficient energy storage technologies. Consequently, this research substantiates the viability of an energy transition from coal to green energy in Vietnam. The article presents an assessment of the rate of replacing coal with renewable energy sources, taking into consideration various scenarios for economic development, energy consumption growth, and the utilization of renewable energy sources.

Ecological transformation is the key to improve ecosystem health for resource-exhausted cities: A case study in China based on future development scenarios

Numerous cities are currently grappling with the challenge of ecological transformation, especially those categorized as resource-exhausted cities. In these urban areas, land use change is a highly scrutinized issue, as different land use strategies can lead to varied outcomes, impacting the ecological environment in multiple dimensions. Assessing ecosystem health reflects the quality of the regional ecological environment and serves as a comprehensive indicator for evaluating the sustainability and stability of urban ecosystems. To this end, a multi-objective optimization model was constructed to predict land use changes under four future development scenarios (four ecological transformation modes), using Shizuishan City (China), a resource-exhausted city situated in an ecologically fragile area, as an example. The “vigor-organization-resilience” assessment framework was employed to evaluate the ecosystem health conditions in each scenario from three dimensions. The study results showed: (1) The ranking of the average ecological health levels in Shizuishan City for 2022 and different future development scenarios is as follows: Low-Carbon Economic Development Scenario (0.302) > Ecological-Economic Coordinated Development Scenario (0.291) > Baseline Scenario (0.290) > Economic Development Scenario (0.281) > 2022 (0.248). (2) Compared to 2022, the ecosystem health levels under the four ecological transformation modes had all improved, with improvement areas accounting for over 60 %, highlighting the urgent necessity of ecological transformation in Shizuishan City. Among them, the Low-Carbon Economic Development Scenario exhibited the largest improvement area, reaching 75.81 %. (3) Ecological system vitality was identified as the dominant dimension influencing the ecological health in this region. This study emphasized multi-objective development needs and provided an integrated ecosystem health assessment method for assessing the comprehensive ecological effects of future ecological transformation modes in resource-exhausted cities.

Integrated assessment and prediction of ecological security in typical ecologically fragile areas.

In order to safeguard and restore ecological security in ecologically fragile regions, a regionally appropriate land use structure and ecological security pattern should be constructed. Previous ecological security research models for ecologically fragile areas are relatively homogenous, and it is necessary to establish a multi-modeling framework to consider integrated ecological issues. This study proposes a coupled "PLUS-ESI-Circuit Theory" framework for multi-scenario ecological security assessment of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR). Firstly, the PLUS model was used to complete the simulation of four future development scenarios. Secondly, a new ecological security index (ESI) is constructed by synthesizing ecological service function, ecological health, and ecological risk. Finally, the Circuit Theory is applied to construct the ecological security pattern under multiple scenarios, and the optimization strategy of ecological security zoning is proposed. The results show that (1) from 2000 to 2030, the NHAR has about 80% of grassland and farmland. The built-up area is consistently growing. (2) Between 2000 and 2030, high ecological security areas are primarily located in Helan Mountain, Liupan Mountain, and the central part of NHAR, while the low ecological security areas are dominated by Shapotou District and Yinchuan City. (3) After 2010, the aggregation of high-security areas decreases, and the fragmentation of patches is obvious. Landscape fragmentation would increase under the economic development (ED) scenario and would be somewhat ameliorated by the ecological protection (EP) and balanced development (BD) scenarios. (4) The number of sources increases but the area decreases from 2000 to 2020. The quantity of ecological elements is on the rise. Ecological restoration and protection of this part of the country will improve its ecological security.

Research on habitat quality in arid urban agglomerations: Influencing mechanisms and multi‐scenario simulations

AbstractIn the context of climate change and rapid urbanization, there have been unparalleled changes in land use and land cover (LULC), resulting in substantial impacts on the surrounding habitat quality (HQ), particularly in ecologically vulnerable arid regions. However, previous studies on the influencing mechanisms of HQ in arid urban agglomerations and future multi‐scenario simulations remain limited. To fill this knowledge gap, this study aimed to reveal the influencing mechanisms in HQ changes and to develop a multi‐scenario HQ assessment framework within arid urban agglomerations. We assessed the spatiotemporal variations in HQ using the InVEST model and three periods of LULC data for the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains (UANSTM), and the partial least squares structural equation model was introduced to explore the interactions between natural and non‐natural factors and their impacts on HQ. Additionally, we coupled multi‐objective programming and PLUS models to predict the LULC under different optimization scenarios (natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), ecological–economic coordinated scenario, and economic development scenario) for the UANSTM in 2030, and to assess HQ. Results show that (1) the HQ index of the UANSTM was 0.507, 0.520, and 0.495 in 2000, 2010, and 2020 respectively, with a spatial distribution pattern of high values in the west, low values in the east, and high in the central and low in the north and south; (2) geomorphic, climatic, and LULC factors have direct positive effects on HQ, while socio‐economic factors have a direct negative effect on HQ. In addition, geomorphic, socio‐economic, and climatic factors also influence HQ through potential indirect paths. Climatic and LULC factors enhance the positive effect of geomorphic on HQ while counteracting the direct negative effect of socio‐economic factors on HQ. Climatic factors have the largest negative effect on HQ through their influence on LULC; (3) according to the four scenarios in 2030, the highest HQ index (increased by 0.13%) was found under the EPS, which also aligns more closely with SDGs. Conversely, NDS showed the lowest HQ index (declined by 2.59%). The research results could provide a scientific basis for promoting sustainable land management and ecological conservation for the UANSTM.

Dynamic simulation of landscape ecological security and analysis of coupling coordination degree: A case study of Bole.

The ecological security of oasis cities in arid and semi-arid regions is highly susceptible to changes in regional landscape patterns and the degree of coordination between human activities and the environment. At the same time, the ecological security of urban landscapes also profoundly affects the success of regional economic and environmental coordination and development. This study is based on land use data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, as well as land use data from the natural development scenario (NLD), economic development scenario (ECD), ecological development scenario (ELD) and ecological-economic development scenario (EED) simulated by the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in 2030. From the perspective of production-living-ecological land (PLEL), it analyzes the changes in the past and future landscape ecological security and coupling coordination characteristics of Bole. The results show that from 1990 to 2020, Bole was mainly dominated by grassland ecological land (GEL) and other ecological land (OEL), accounting for a total proportion of 69.51%, with a large increase in production and living land area; the average value of landscape ecological risk is decreasing, and the landscape ecological security of Bole is developing towards benignity; the area of highly coupled coordination zone is decreasing continuously, while that of basic coordination zone and moderate coordination zone is increasing continuously. Under the 2030 EED scenario, the overall changes in various types of land use are not significant, and the average value of landscape ecological risk is the smallest, but it is higher than that in 2020 as a whole; under EED scenario, the area of highly coordinated zone and moderate coordinated zone is the largest among four scenarios, and the best coupling coordination level among the four scenarios. Landscape ecological security and its coupling coordination will be affected by land use patterns. Optimizing regional land use patterns is of great significance for improving urban landscape ecological security and sustainable high-quality development.

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Multi-scenario Simulation of Carbon Storage in Karst Regions of Central Guizhou Province：Taking Puding County as An Example

Regional land use change is the main cause for the change in karst carbon storage. It is important to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution and future spatial distribution trends of carbon storage in typical counties in central Guizhou's karst region， such as Puding County， to improve regional carbon storage， optimize land ecological security patterns， and promote low-carbon sustainable urban development. The PLUS-InVEST model was coupled， based on the interpreted land use data and future land prediction， the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use change and carbon storage in Puding County from 1973 to 2020 were inverted， and the spatial pattern evolution of land use and carbon storage change under different scenarios in 2060 were simulated and predicted. The results showed： ① from 1973 to 2020， the overall carbon storage in Puding County increased by 6.61×105 t， showing an upward trend. The spatial distribution showed a significant increase in the northeastern and southwestern parts of Puding County and a significant decrease in the south-central parts. The change was due to the increase in carbon storage in dryland to shrubland and forest land and the decrease in carbon storage in areas where paddy fields are converted to construction land. ② The land use change in Puding County in the historical period was mainly reflected in the continuous expansion of construction land and the increased fluctuation of the proportion of forest land and shrub forest land， and the change in land use in different scenarios projected in 2060 retained the change characteristics of the historical period. ③ In 2060， the carbon storage in Puding County under the scenarios of natural evolution， ecological protection， and economic development increased by 2.93×105， 5.40×105， and 1.11×105 t， respectively， compared with that in 2020. Of these， the increase in ecological protection scenarios was the most significant， with the transfer of dryland to shrubland being the main reason for the increase in regional carbon sequestration capacity. These results can serve as a scientific reference for land use management decisions and the formulation of emission reduction and sink increase policies in Puding County. The future land use planning of karst areas should be guided by the goal of "carbon neutrality" in 2060， take appropriate ecological protection measures， strictly control the rapid expansion of construction land to paddy fields， optimize the land use structure， and effectively improve the level of regional carbon storage.