AbstractSince 1994, the fishery for bay scallops Argopecten irradians concentricus in Florida has been limited to a recreational fishery that operates during the summer, before the spawning season in fall. Recent growth of the fishery necessitates a study of the effect of this increased exploitation on the bay scallop population. The study focused on one management zone, centered on the community of Steinhatchee, that is known for high rates of exploitation. Within this zone, we created a model of bay scallop harvest using fishery‐independent and fishery‐dependent survey methods and evaluated the risk of extirpation of the stock. We found that the fishery in the zone functions as a derby, with most harvest effort occurring when the season opens, followed by a steady decline throughout the season. Effort estimates suggest that 21,579 vessels, or 82,398 people, from 94% of Florida’s counties and 16 other states participated in the 2018 season in the Steinhatchee zone. The influx of harvesters generated approximately US$1.8 million in revenue for this small coastal community and resulted in an estimated fishing mortality of 57–72% of the population in the zone. The exploitation rate of the fishery in 2018 exceeded 0.4, suggesting that the fishery may be unable to sustain itself under current conditions. We evaluated management strategies and found that the bay scallop population in this zone would be in danger of being extirpated if harvest effort doubled, suggesting the need for regular monitoring of effort in this fishery in this zone and probably in the fishery statewide.