Scale Mixtures Of Skew-normal Research Articles

Analyzing method comparison data with skew-normal measurement error models: incorporating generalized scale mixtures and varying degrees of freedom

Comparing two measurement methods is vital in various fields, such as medical research, epidemiology, economics, and environmental studies, to determine whether a new measurement method can be used interchangeably with an existing one. Measurement error models (MEMs) are commonly used for this purpose, where the methods have different measuring scales. However, these models often assume normality, which can be problematic when dealing with skewed and heavy-tailed data. To address this issue, we propose the replicated measurement error model (RMEM) under scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions with different levels of skewness and heavy tails of the true covariate and error distributions. Our primary aim is to assess the extent of similarity and agreement between two measurement methods using this model. The expectation conditional maximization (ECM) approach is applied to fit the model. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed methodology and is illustrated by analyzing systolic blood pressure data. The probability of agreement is used further to assess the agreement between the two measurement methods. The findings indicate that the proposed model effectively analyses replicated method comparison data with measurement errors, even when there are outliers, skewness, and heavy-tailedness.

Chaotic systems with asymmetric heavy-tailed noise: Application to 3D attractors

Abstract Yilmaz et al. (Fluct. Noise Lett. 17, 1830002, 2018) investigated the stochastic phenomenological bifurcations of a generalized Chua circuit driven by Skew-Gaussian distributed noise. They proved it is possible to decrease the number of scrolls by properly choosing the stochastic excitation, manipulating the skewness and noise intensity parameters. Based on the latter, this paper proposes an extension of skew-gaussian noise based on the family of Scale Mixtures of Skew-normal (SMSN) distributions, which includes the skew- t , the skew-gaussian, and the gaussian noises as particular cases. The Lorenz, Generalized Lorenz, Proto–Lorenzand Rossler attractors driven by skew- t distributed noise are considered. Results show that the chaotic regime’s behavior is influenced by the freedom parameter degrees of skew- t noise, increasing the noise variance. This paper concludes that noise intensity increases by rescaling the skew- t distribution at zero mean, rather than by increasing the asymmetry parameter.

Kalman Filter Based on Multiple Scaled Multivariate Skew Normal Variance Mean Mixture Distributions With Application to Target Tracking

In this brief, we first propose a multiple scaled multivariate skew normal variance-mean mixture (MSMSNVMM) distribution to model heavy-tailed and/or skew measurement noises (HTSMN) whose each dimension has different tail and skewness behaviors. The MSMSNVMM distribution has more flexible tail behaviors and richer skewness features than Gaussian scale mixture (GScM) distribution, generalized Gaussian scale mixture (GGScM) distribution and scale mixtures of skew normal (SMSN) distribution. Furthermore, we derive a robust Kalman filter based on variational Bayesian (VB) method. The superiority of the new filter is demonstrated in a maneuvering target tracking example.

A Bayesian Approach to Heavy-Tailed Finite Mixture Autoregressive Models

In this paper, a Bayesian analysis of finite mixture autoregressive (MAR) models based on the assumption of scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) innovations (called SMSN–MAR) is considered. This model is not simultaneously sensitive to outliers, as the celebrated SMSN distributions, because the proposed MAR model covers the lightly/heavily-tailed symmetric and asymmetric innovations. This model allows us to have robust inferences on some non-linear time series with skewness and heavy tails. Classical inferences about the mixture models have some problematic issues that can be solved using Bayesian approaches. The stochastic representation of the SMSN family allows us to develop a Bayesian analysis considering the informative prior distributions in the proposed model. Some simulations and real data are also presented to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed models.

Multivariate tail conditional expectation for scale mixtures of skew-normal distribution

ABSTRACTIn practice, a financial or actuarial data set may be a skewed or heavy-tailed and this motivates us to study a class of distribution functions in risk management theory that provide more information about these characteristics resulting in a more accurate risk analysis. In this paper, we consider a multivariate tail conditional expectation (MTCE) for multivariate scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions. This class of distributions contains skewed distributions and some members of this class can be used to analyse heavy-tailed data sets. We also provide a closed form for TCE in a univariate skew-normal distribution framework. Numerical examples are also provided for illustration.

A robust class of homoscedastic nonlinear regression models

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we examine a nonlinear regression (NLR) model with homoscedastic errors which follows a flexible class of two-piece distributions based on the scale mixtures of normal (TP-SMN) family. The objective of using this family is to develop a robust NLR model. The TP-SMN is a rich class of distributions that covers symmetric/asymmetric and lightly/heavy-tailed distributions and is an alternative family to the well-known scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) family studied by Branco and Dey [35]. A key feature of this study is using a new suitable hierarchical representation of the family to obtain maximum-likelihood estimates of model parameters via an EM-type algorithm. The performances of the proposed robust model are demonstrated using simulated and some natural real datasets and also compared to other well-known NLR models.

Nonlinear mixed-effects models with scale mixture of skew-normal distributions

ABSTRACTAiming to avoid the sensitivity in the parameters estimation due to atypical observations or skewness, we develop asymmetric nonlinear regression models with mixed-effects, which provide alternatives to the use of normal distribution and other symmetric distributions. Nonlinear models with mixed-effects are explored in several areas of knowledge, especially when data are correlated, such as longitudinal data, repeated measures and multilevel data, in particular, for their flexibility in dealing with measures of areas such as economics and pharmacokinetics. The random components of the present model are assumed to follow distributions that belong to scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distribution family, that encompasses distributions with light and heavy tails, such as skew-normal, skew-Student-t, skew-contaminated normal and skew-slash, as well as symmetrical versions of these distributions. For the parameters estimation we obtain a numerical solution via the EM algorithm and its extensions, and the Newton-Raphson algorithm. An application with pharmacokinetic data shows the superiority of the proposed models, for which the skew-contaminated normal distribution has shown to be the most adequate distribution. A brief simulation study points to good properties of the parameter vector estimators obtained by the maximum likelihood method.

Likelihood-based inference for censored linear regression models with scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

ABSTRACTIn many studies, the data collected are subject to some upper and lower detection limits. Hence, the responses are either left or right censored. A complication arises when these continuous measures present heavy tails and asymmetrical behavior; simultaneously. For such data structures, we propose a robust-censored linear model based on the scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions. The SMSN is an attractive class of asymmetrical heavy-tailed densities that includes the skew-normal, skew-t, skew-slash, skew-contaminated normal and the entire family of scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions as special cases. We propose a fast estimation procedure to obtain the maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of the parameters, using a stochastic approximation of the EM (SAEM) algorithm. This approach allows us to estimate the parameters of interest easily and quickly, obtaining as a byproducts the standard errors, predictions of unobservable values of the response and the log-likelihood function. The proposed methods are illustrated through real data applications and several simulation studies.

A Bayesian Approach to Robust Skewed Autoregressive Processes

This article studies autoregressive (AR) models assuming innovations with scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions, an attractive and flexible family of probability distributions. A Bayesian analysis considering informative prior distributions is presented. Comprehensive simulation studies are performed to support the performance of the proposed model and methods. The proposed methods are also applied on a real-time series data which has previously been analysed under Gaussian and Student- t AR models.

Likelihood Inference of Nonlinear Models Based on a Class of Flexible Skewed Distributions

This paper deals with the issue of the likelihood inference for nonlinear models with a flexible skew-t-normal (FSTN) distribution, which is proposed within a general framework of flexible skew-symmetric (FSS) distributions by combining with skew-t-normal (STN) distribution. In comparison with the common skewed distributions such as skew normal (SN), and skew-t (ST) as well as scale mixtures of skew normal (SMSN), the FSTN distribution can accommodate more flexibility and robustness in the presence of skewed, heavy-tailed, especially multimodal outcomes. However, for this distribution, a usual approach of maximum likelihood estimates based on EM algorithm becomes unavailable and an alternative way is to return to the original Newton-Raphson type method. In order to improve the estimation as well as the way for confidence estimation and hypothesis test for the parameters of interest, a modified Newton-Raphson iterative algorithm is presented in this paper, based on profile likelihood for nonlinear regression models with FSTN distribution, and, then, the confidence interval and hypothesis test are also developed. Furthermore, a real example and simulation are conducted to demonstrate the usefulness and the superiority of our approach.

Diagnostics on nonlinear model with scale mixtures of skew-normal and first-order autoregressive errors

In this work, we develop some diagnostics for nonlinear regression model with scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) and first-order autoregressive errors. The SMSN distribution class covers symmetric as well as asymmetric and heavy-tailed distributions, which offers a more flexible framework for modelling. Maximum-likelihood (ML) estimates are computed via an expectation–maximization-type algorithm. Local influence diagnostics and score test for the correlation are also derived. The performances of the ML estimates and the test statistic are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, a real data set is used to illustrate our diagnostic methods.

Statistical diagnostics for nonlinear regression models based on scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

The purpose of this paper is to develop diagnostics analysis for nonlinear regression models (NLMs) under scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions introduced by Garay et al. [Nonlinear regression models based on SMSN distributions. J. Korean Statist. Soc. 2011;40:115–124]. This novel class of models provides a useful generalization of the symmetrical NLM [Vanegas LH, Cysneiros FJA. Assessment of diagnostic procedures in symmetrical nonlinear regression models. Comput. Statist. Data Anal. 2010;54:1002–1016] since the random terms distributions cover both symmetric as well as asymmetric and heavy-tailed distributions such as the skew-t, skew-slash, skew-contaminated normal distributions, among others. Motivated by the results given in Garay et al. [Nonlinear regression models based on SMSN distributions. J. Korean Statist. Soc. 2011;40:115–124], we presented a score test for testing the homogeneity of the scale parameter and its properties are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations studies. Furthermore, local influence measures and the one-step approximations of the estimates in the case-deletion model are obtained. The newly developed procedures are illustrated considering a real data set.

Estimation and diagnostics for heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models based on scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

An extension of some standard likelihood based procedures to heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models under scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions is developed. This novel class of models provides a useful generalization of the heteroscedastic symmetrical nonlinear regression models (Cysneiros et al., 2010), since the random term distributions cover both symmetric as well as asymmetric and heavy-tailed distributions such as skew-t, skew-slash, skew-contaminated normal, among others. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters is presented and the observed information matrix is derived analytically. In order to examine the performance of the proposed methods, some simulation studies are presented to show the robust aspect of this flexible class against outlying and influential observations and that the maximum likelihood estimates based on the EM-type algorithm do provide good asymptotic properties. Furthermore, local influence measures and the one-step approximations of the estimates in the case-deletion model are obtained. Finally, an illustration of the methodology is given considering a data set previously analyzed under the homoscedastic skew-t nonlinear regression model.

Heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models based on scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

An extension of some standard likelihood based procedures to heteroscedastic nonlinear regression models under scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions is developed. We derive a simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood (ML) estimates and the observed information matrix is derived analytically. Simulation studies demonstrate the robustness of this flexible class against outlying and influential observations, as well as nice asymptotic properties of the proposed EM-type ML estimates. Finally, the methodology is illustrated using an ultrasonic calibration data.

Nonlinear regression models based on scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

An extension of some standard likelihood based procedures to nonlinear regression models under scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions is developed. This novel class of models provides a useful generalization of the symmetrical nonlinear regression models since the random terms distributions cover both symmetric as well as asymmetric and heavy-tailed distributions such as skew-t, skew-slash, skew-contaminated normal, among others. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates is presented and the observed information matrix is derived analytically. In order to examine the robust aspect of this flexible class against outlying and influential observations, some simulation studies have also been presented. Finally, an illustration of the methodology is given considering a data set previously analyzed under normal and skew-normal nonlinear regression models.