Scale Mixtures Of Skew-normal Distributions Research Articles

New Insights on the Multivariate Skew Exponential Power Distribution

ABSTRACT The multivariate exponential power is a useful distribution for modeling departures from normality in data by means of a tail weight scalar parameter that regulates the non-normality of the model. The incorporation of a shape asymmetry vector into the model serves to account for potential asymmetries and gives rise to the multivariate skew exponential power distribution. This work is aimed at revisiting the skew exponential power distribution taking as a starting point its formulation as a scale mixture of skew-normal distributions. The paper provides some highlights and theoretical insights on the role played by its parameters to assess two complementary aspects of the multivariate non-normality such as directional asymmetry and tail weight behavior regardless of the asymmetry. The intuition behind both issues relies on well-known mathematical ideas about skewness maximization and convex transform stochastic orderings.

Finite mixture of semiparametric multivariate skew-normal distributions

Although the normal distribution is the most frequently used distribution for modeling a given data in many applications due to its desirable theoretical properties and computational convenience, it is often not suitable to model the data having asymmetric or heavy tailed distributions. The skew-normal distribution is an important alternative to the normal distribution as it can cover not only the normal distribution but also some asymmetric distributions. However, it cannot well approximate heavy tailed distributions. In this paper, we propose a semiparametric skew-normal distribution which contains skew-normal distributions using the nonparametric scale mixture of skew-normal distributions and apply the proposed model to finite mixture models so that we can obtain more efficient and insightful knowledge in the model-based cluster analysis. We provide a feasible algorithm to compute all parametric and nonparametric components in the proposed model. Numerical examples to show the applicability of the proposed model are also presented.

Series form of the characteristic functions of scale mixtures of multivariate skew-normal distributions

Based on two series representations of the error function and a series representation of the Faddeeva function, the characteristic functions of scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions in univariate and multivariate cases are derived in series form instead of the previously suggested two-dimensional integral form without using contour integration. This is accomplished by applying the Lebesgue dominated convergence theorem to change the order of integral and limit. After integrating out each mixing variable, the series representation is expressed as in closed-form. Series form greatly reduces the computing times compared to the integral form, which is visualized via parallel box plots in a skew-t and a skew-slash distributions and a result of application on goodness-of-fit test.

PAR(1) model analysis: a web-based shiny application for analysing periodic autoregressive models

In this paper, a web-based shiny application called the ‘PAR(1) Model Analysis’— that allows the modelling, estimation and prediction of a periodic autoregressive time series with scale mixtures of skew-normal innovations, a general and quite flexible class of error distributions—is presented. The class of scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions is often used for statistical procedures of analysing symmetrical and asymmetrical data. The formulation of the scale of a mixture of skew-normal periodic autoregressive models and the estimating methods, which will be applied in the web application, is briefly explained. The embedded tools in the web application and their applications on data analysis are fully described, and finally, a real data example is completely analysed by using this app to illustrate its handling.

Bayesian measurement error models using finite mixtures of scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

We present a proposal to deal with the non-normality issue in the context of regression models with measurement errors when both the response and the explanatory variable are observed with error. We extend the normal model by jointly modelling the unobserved covariate and the random errors by a finite mixture of scale mixture of skew-normal distributions. This approach allows us to model data with great flexibility, accommodating skewness, heavy tails, and multi-modality. The main virtue of considering measurement error models under the class of scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions is that they have a nice hierarchical representation which allows easy implementation of inference. In order to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed method some simulation studies are presented and a real dataset (Systemic lupus erythematosus) is analyzed.

Skewness-Based Projection Pursuit as an Eigenvector Problem in Scale Mixtures of Skew-Normal Distributions

This paper addresses the projection pursuit problem assuming that the distribution of the input vector belongs to the flexible and wide family of multivariate scale mixtures of skew normal distributions. Under this assumption, skewness-based projection pursuit is set out as an eigenvector problem, described in terms of the third order cumulant matrix, as well as an eigenvector problem that involves the simultaneous diagonalization of the scatter matrices of the model. Both approaches lead to dominant eigenvectors proportional to the shape parametric vector, which accounts for the multivariate asymmetry of the model; they also shed light on the parametric interpretability of the invariant coordinate selection method and point out some alternatives for estimating the projection pursuit direction. The theoretical findings are further investigated through a simulation study whose results provide insights about the usefulness of skewness model-based projection pursuit in the statistical practice.

Approximate Inferences for Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models with Scale Mixtures of Skew-Normal Distributions

Nonlinear mixed effects models have received a great deal of attention in the statistical literature in recent years because of their flexibility in handling longitudinal studies, including human immunodeficiency virus viral dynamics, pharmacokinetic analyses, and studies of growth and decay. A standard assumption in nonlinear mixed effects models for continuous responses is that the random effects and the within-subject errors are normally distributed, making the model sensitive to outliers. We present a novel class of asymmetric nonlinear mixed effects models that provides efficient parameters estimation in the analysis of longitudinal data. We assume that, marginally, the random effects follow a multivariate scale mixtures of skew--normal distribution and that the random errors follow a symmetric scale mixtures of normal distribution, providing an appealing robust alternative to the usual normal distribution. We propose an approximate method for maximum likelihood estimation based on an EM-type algorithm that produces approximate maximum likelihood estimates and significantly reduces the numerical difficulties associated with the exact maximum likelihood estimation. Techniques for prediction of future responses under this class of distributions are also briefly discussed. The methodology is illustrated through an application to Theophylline kinetics data and through some simulating studies.

On the canonical form of scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

The canonical form of scale mixtures of multivariate skew-normal distribution is defined, emphasizing its role in summarizing some key properties of this class of distributions. It is also shown that the canonical form corresponds to an affine invariant co-ordinate system as defined in Tyler et al. (2009), and a method for obtaining the linear transform that converts a scale mixture of multivariate skew-normal distribution into a canonical form is presented. Related results, where the particular case of the multivariate skew t distribution is considered in greater detail, are the general expression of the Mardia indices of multivariate skewness and kurtosis and the reduction of dimensionality in calculating the mode.

Moments of truncated scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

In this work, we consider the problem of finding the moments of a doubly truncated member of the class of scale mixtures of skew-normal (TSMSN) distributions. We obtain a general result and then use it to derive the moments in the case of doubly truncated versions of skew-normal, skew-t, skew-slash and skew-contaminated normal distributions. Many properties of the TSMSN family are studied, inference procedures are developed and a simulation study is performed to assess the procedures. Two applications are also provided, one of them in the context of censored regression models and another in the field of actuarial sciences.

A Bayesian Approach to Heavy-Tailed Finite Mixture Autoregressive Models

In this paper, a Bayesian analysis of finite mixture autoregressive (MAR) models based on the assumption of scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) innovations (called SMSN–MAR) is considered. This model is not simultaneously sensitive to outliers, as the celebrated SMSN distributions, because the proposed MAR model covers the lightly/heavily-tailed symmetric and asymmetric innovations. This model allows us to have robust inferences on some non-linear time series with skewness and heavy tails. Classical inferences about the mixture models have some problematic issues that can be solved using Bayesian approaches. The stochastic representation of the SMSN family allows us to develop a Bayesian analysis considering the informative prior distributions in the proposed model. Some simulations and real data are also presented to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed models.

Symmetrical and asymmetrical mixture autoregressive processes

In this paper, we study the finite mixtures of autoregressive processes assuming that the distribution of innovations (errors) belongs to the class of scale mixture of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions. The SMSN distributions allow a simultaneous modeling of the existence of outliers, heavy tails and asymmetries in the distribution of innovations. Therefore, a statistical methodology based on the SMSN family allows us to use a robust modeling on some non-linear time series with great flexibility, to accommodate skewness, heavy tails and heterogeneity simultaneously. The existence of convenient hierarchical representations of the SMSN distributions facilitates also the implementation of an ECME-type of algorithm to perform the likelihood inference in the considered model. Simulation studies and the application to a real data set are finally presented to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model.

Data projections by skewness maximization under scale mixtures of skew-normal vectors

Multivariate scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions are flexible models that account for the non-normality of data by means of a tail weight parameter and a shape vector representing the asymmetry of the model in a directional fashion. Its stochastic representation involves a skew-normal vector and a non negative mixing scalar variable, independent of the skew-normal vector, that injects tail weight behavior into the model. In this paper we look into the problem of finding the projection that maximizes skewness for vectors that follow a scale mixture of skew-normal distribution; when a simple condition on the moments of the mixing variable is fulfilled, it can be shown that the direction yielding the maximal skewness is proportional to the shape vector. This finding stresses the directional nature of the shape vector to regulate the asymmetry; it also provides the theoretical foundations motivating the skewness based projection pursuit problem in this class of distributions. Some examples that illustrate the application of our results are also given; they include a simulation experiment with artificial data, which sheds light on the usefulness and implications of our results, and the application to real data.

Multivariate tail conditional expectation for scale mixtures of skew-normal distribution

ABSTRACTIn practice, a financial or actuarial data set may be a skewed or heavy-tailed and this motivates us to study a class of distribution functions in risk management theory that provide more information about these characteristics resulting in a more accurate risk analysis. In this paper, we consider a multivariate tail conditional expectation (MTCE) for multivariate scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions. This class of distributions contains skewed distributions and some members of this class can be used to analyse heavy-tailed data sets. We also provide a closed form for TCE in a univariate skew-normal distribution framework. Numerical examples are also provided for illustration.

Nonlinear mixed-effects models with scale mixture of skew-normal distributions

ABSTRACTAiming to avoid the sensitivity in the parameters estimation due to atypical observations or skewness, we develop asymmetric nonlinear regression models with mixed-effects, which provide alternatives to the use of normal distribution and other symmetric distributions. Nonlinear models with mixed-effects are explored in several areas of knowledge, especially when data are correlated, such as longitudinal data, repeated measures and multilevel data, in particular, for their flexibility in dealing with measures of areas such as economics and pharmacokinetics. The random components of the present model are assumed to follow distributions that belong to scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distribution family, that encompasses distributions with light and heavy tails, such as skew-normal, skew-Student-t, skew-contaminated normal and skew-slash, as well as symmetrical versions of these distributions. For the parameters estimation we obtain a numerical solution via the EM algorithm and its extensions, and the Newton-Raphson algorithm. An application with pharmacokinetic data shows the superiority of the proposed models, for which the skew-contaminated normal distribution has shown to be the most adequate distribution. A brief simulation study points to good properties of the parameter vector estimators obtained by the maximum likelihood method.

Modeling and forecasting daily maximum hourly ozone concentrations using the RegAR model with skewed and heavy-tailed innovations

This paper considers the modeling and forecasting of daily maximum hourly ozone concentrations in Laranjeiras, Serra, Brazil, through dynamic regression models. In order to take into account the natural skewness and heavy-tailness of the data, a linear regression model with autoregressive errors and innovations following a member of the family of scale mixture of skew-normal distributions was considered. Pollutants and meteorological variables were considered as predictors, along with some deterministic factors, namely week-days and seasons. The Oceanic Nino Index was also considered as a predictor. The estimated model was able to explain satisfactorily well the correlation structure of the ozone time series. An out-of-sample forecast study was also performed. The skew-normal and skew-t models displayed quite competitive point forecasts compared to the similar model with gaussian innovations. On the other hand, in terms of forecast intervals, the skewed models presented much better performance with more accurate prediction intervals. These findings were empirically corroborated by a forecast Monte Carlo experiment.

Multivariate measures of skewness for the scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

Several measures of multivariate skewness for scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions are derived. As a special case, those of multivariate skew-t distribution are considered in detail. Furthermore, the similarities, differences, and behavior of these measures are explored for cases of some specific members of the multivariate skew-normal and skew-t distributions using a simulation study. Since some measures are vectors, it is better to take all measures in the same scale when comparing them. In order to attain such a set of comparable indices, the sample version is considered for each of the skewness measures that are taken as test statistics for the hypothesis of t distribution against skew-t distribution. An application is reported for the data set consisting of 71 total glycerol and magnesium contents in Grignolino wine.

Likelihood-based inference for censored linear regression models with scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions

ABSTRACTIn many studies, the data collected are subject to some upper and lower detection limits. Hence, the responses are either left or right censored. A complication arises when these continuous measures present heavy tails and asymmetrical behavior; simultaneously. For such data structures, we propose a robust-censored linear model based on the scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions. The SMSN is an attractive class of asymmetrical heavy-tailed densities that includes the skew-normal, skew-t, skew-slash, skew-contaminated normal and the entire family of scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions as special cases. We propose a fast estimation procedure to obtain the maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of the parameters, using a stochastic approximation of the EM (SAEM) algorithm. This approach allows us to estimate the parameters of interest easily and quickly, obtaining as a byproducts the standard errors, predictions of unobservable values of the response and the log-likelihood function. The proposed methods are illustrated through real data applications and several simulation studies.

Skewed and Flexible Skewed Distributions: A Modern Look at the Distribution of BMI

The purpose of this study is to find distributions that best model body mass index (BMI) data. BMI has become a standard health indicator and numerous studies have been done to examine the distribution of BMI. Due to the skew and bimodal nature, we focus on modeling BMI with flexible skewed distributions. The distributions are fitted to University of Wisconsin–Eau Claire (UWEC) BMI data and to a data obtained from National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES). The model parameters are obtained using maximum likelihood estimation method. We compare flexible models to more conventional distributions, such as skew-normal, and skew-t distributions using AIC and BIC and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. Our results indicate that the skew-t and Alpha-Skew-Laplace distributions are reasonably competitive when describing unimodal BMI data whereas Alpha-Skew-Laplace and finite mixture of scale mixture of skew-normal and skew-t distributions are better alternatives to both unimodal and bimodal conventional distributions. The results we obtained are useful because we believe the models discussed in ours study will offer a framework for testing features such as bimodality, asymmetry, and robustness of the BMI data, thus providing a more detailed and accurate understanding of the distribution of BMI. KEYWORDS: Body Mass Index; Skew-normal distribution; Skew-t distribution; Flexible skewed distributions; Mixture distributions; Scale mixture of skew-normal distribution; K-S test

Measurement Error Models for Replicated Data Under Asymmetric Heavy-Tailed Distributions

Replicated data with measurement errors are frequently presented in economical, environmental, chemical, medical and other fields. In this paper, we discuss a replicated measurement error model under the class of scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions, which extends symmetric heavy and light tailed distributions to asymmetric cases. We also consider equation error in the model for displaying the matching degree between the true covariate and response. Explicit iterative expressions of maximum likelihood estimates are provided via the expectation–maximization type algorithm. Empirical Bayes estimates are conducted for predicting the true covariate and response. We study the effectiveness as well as the robustness of the maximum likelihood estimations through two simulation studies. The method is applied to analyze a continuing survey data of food intakes by individuals on diet habits.

Heteroscedastic replicated measurement error models under asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions

We propose a heteroscedastic replicated measurement error model based on the class of scale mixtures of skew-normal distributions, which allows the variances of measurement errors to vary across subjects. We develop EM algorithms to calculate maximum likelihood estimates for the model with or without equation error. An empirical Bayes approach is applied to estimate the true covariate and predict the response. Simulation studies show that the proposed models can provide reliable results and the inference is not unduly affected by outliers and distribution misspecification. The method has also been used to analyze a real data of plant root decomposition.