Saving Retention Coefficient Research Articles

Re-estimation of the savings retention coefficient in OECD countries: a new measure of home country bias

The recent home bias is primarily related to the equity bias as measured by the international capital asset pricing model (CAPM); this measure has declined over the past two decades amid financial globalization, but remains high in most developed countries. The key to understanding this puzzling phenomenon lies in how accurately this indicator can be predicted. In this paper, we propose to use the savings retention coefficient estimated by the Feldstein–Horioka (F–H) regression as a cross-country measure of home bias. We re-estimate the savings retention coefficient based on an estimation model in which the FH regression is embedded in the model derived from Tobin's q-theory of saddle-road dynamics of investment under convex adjustment costs. We then use dynamic panel estimation to estimate the new measure in OECD countries. The main empirical results are as follows. The new measure of home country bias, such as the equity bias measure, declined steadily until 2008, but recovered to the level of the 60 s and 70 s after the 2008 financial crisis. Interestingly, people expected home country bias to be very high after the financial crisis, but in fact it simply returned to its previous level.

The Feldstein–Horioka hypothesis for African countries: Evidence from recent panel error‐correction modelling

AbstractThis paper, by applying the recent panel data error‐correction modelling developed by Gengenbach et al., Panel error correction testing with global stochastic trends, 2008 University of Maastricht, Working Paper, RM/08/051:1–51 and Gengenbach et al., Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016, 31, 982–1004 tests the validity of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle (1980) in a panel of 27 African countries for the period 1965–2015. Unlike the existing studies in the literature, this paper, for the first time, addresses several important panel data econometric issues such as slope heterogeneity, cross‐section dependence, unobservable common factors, non‐stationarity and endogeneity that would yield inconsistent and biased estimates of the parameters of interest. Unlike the previous residual‐based error‐correction modelling that has low power, the Gengenbach et al., Panel error correction testing with global stochastic trends, 2008, University of Maastricht, Working Paper, RM/08/051:1–51 and Gengenbach et al., Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016, 31, 982–1004 estimator explicitly considers structural dynamics in modelling a cointegrated panel that allows for the presence of non‐stationary unobserved common factors. As the GUW modelling depends on the Pesaran Common Correlated Effects Mean Group Estimator (CCEMG; 2006) and the Chudik and Pesaran Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Mean Group Estimator (DCCEMG; 2015), we report the results based on these estimators. The econometric exercises performed in the paper show that slope heterogeneity; cross‐section dependence and non‐stationarity are present in the panel data sample used in the estimation. Estimations yield a relatively low magnitude of the savings retention coefficient for the panel members included in the study with a negative error‐correction term that is statistically significant at the individual and panel levels. The empirical evidence rejects the presence of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in the panel of 27 African countries studied.

Does the Feldstein–Horioka relationship vary with economic policy uncertainty?

ABSTRACT This research addresses the omitted-uncertainty bias and functional form misspecification problem when estimating the saving-investment relationship. We apply a semiparametric varying-coefficient cointegration approach to test for the presence of an ‘uncertainty-varying’ cointegrating relationship between savings and investment. Based on quarterly time series data for the U.S. from 1947Q1 to 2014Q4, we find that the saving-retention coefficient is a U-shaped function of economic policy uncertainty. This indicates that domestic investment is more constraint by domestic savings at very high and very low levels of uncertainty. Given the continued rise in economic policy uncertainty, our estimate predicts that domestic investment will become more constrained by domestic savings. Further sub-period analysis shows that the null hypothesis of the presence of an uncertainty-varying cointegrating relationship between savings and investment cannot be rejected in the recent sub-period of 1999Q1-2014Q4, suggesting that the U.S current account is sustainable.

The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle: Evidence From Emerging Countries

This paper examines the saving-investment nexus and the level of capital mobility for the BRICS and Fragile Five countries within the scope of the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) puzzle that asserts a substantial correlation between domestic investment and domestic savings in spite of the increasing capital mobility in the world. It is used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test approach for the period 1980-2018 on a country-by-country to identify the nature of the saving retention coefficient. Findings of the paper reveal the Feldstein–Horioka (1980) puzzle holds for China, South Africa and Turkey period examined while there is not any long-run relationship between savings and investment in Brazil, India and Indonesia. Based on the saving-retention coefficients range from 0.46 to 0.74 for the four countries which there is a cointegration between saving and investment, there is moderate to low capital mobility in these countries.

МОДИФИКАЦИЯ IS-LM-BPМОДЕЛИ В РАМКАХ КОНЦЕПЦИИ НЕОКЛАССИЧЕСКОГО СИНТЕЗА

With the intensification of processes caused by globalization, the relevance of the studies about the impact of exogenous shocks in the global markets for wealth and money on the macroeconomic parameters of a small open economy is growing. Moreover, the basis of modern economic relations within the global economy is not only the global trade in goods and services, but the international movement of production factors. Migration of labor resources starts playing an increasingly important role in the sphere of the international movement of production factors. The study of these processes and their further analysis is possible within the framework of the IS-LM-BP model supplemented by the labor market data. The IS-LM-BP model is still a significant theoretical and methodological development, which allows us to analyze the impact of exogenous shocks on the global and domestic markets of goods and money markets on a small open economy, as well as evaluate the effectiveness of state regulation. The opportunity to assess the impact of the exchange rate regime and the mobility of international capital on the effectiveness of state regulation in a small open economy, as well as on the mechanism for adjusting disturbed double equilibrium under the influence of exogenous shocks is considered to be the most interesting. However, the most important macroeconomic market – the labor market – remains outside the framework of this model. The purpose of the study is to modify the IS-LM-BP model developed in the framework of the concept of J.M. Keynes including a new curve – the full-employment curve in the model. The derivation of the curve is based on the theoretical premises of the neoclassical concept: full employment directly depends on the real interest rate in this model acts as an endogenous parameter. This study is based on Keynesian principles of double equilibrium in a small open economy supplemented by neoclassical ideas about full employment as an endogenous parameter. The modification of the IS-LM-BP model based on the principles of neoclassical synthesis means the development of a full-employment curve and including it in the case study model based on the basic principles of the theoretical justification of this macroeconomic model. The full-employment curve identifies the equilibrium curve in the neoclassical labor market. The reason for its inclusion in the IS-LM-BP model is the existing theoretically substantiated relationship between the real interest rate and the supply on the labor market as part of the concept of a new classical school. The dependence is based on the inter-temporal price of labor, which, in turn, is directly dependent on the real interest rate. Since the derivation of the full-employment curve is based on the neoclassical postulates of the functioning of the labor market, the suggested modification of the IS-LM-BP model can be considered as an example of neoclassical synthesis. The IS-LM-BP model modified by the author is proposed as a methodological base for the study of such theoretical and practical aspects of the functioning of open business systems as: 1) the analysis of the adjustment mechanism in the process of restoring disequilibrium in the labor market, goods, money and foreign exchange as a result of exposure to exogenous shocks; 2) the analysis of the effectiveness of state regulation in the functioning of the labor market, goods, money and foreign currency; 3) the comparison of the desired theoretical model with the real processes inherent in small open economies. Keywords IS-LM model, Mandell-Fleming model, IS-LM-BP model, real business cycle model, full-time curve, Keynesian concept, neoclassical synthesis, IS-LM-BP-NF model, exchange rate regime, capital mobility, small open economy.

Saving, investment and capital mobility in EU member countries: a panel data analysis of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we reexamine the long-standing and puzzling correlation between national saving and investment in 14 European Union (EU) countries. We employ a panel data set for the period 1970–2015 and we apply recently developed maximum likelihood panel cointegration methodologies. We find that there exists a long-run relationship between savings and investment for this panel of EU member countries, with the savings retention coefficient being low in magnitude but statistically different than zero. Therefore, we argue that there is weak evidence in favour of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle and that the long-run international solvency condition is maintained in most of these countries. This evidence implies a moderate degree of capital mobility which is consistent with the macroeconomic experience of these countries during the period under investigation.

The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in the presence of structural breaks: evidence from China

ABSTRACTThis study explores the empirical validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle for China in the presence of structural breaks. As such, we employ a recently proposed multiple-break cointegration test. Once the existence of the cointegration between domestic savings and investment is ensured by allowing for endogenous structural breaks, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimation procedures are implemented to obtain reliable inferences. Empirical results reveal that the relationship between Chinese domestic savings and investment has undergone some major changes. More specifically, with the introduction of managed floating exchange rate regime, a substantial reduction is observed in the almost unitary saving retention coefficient of the fixed exchange rate period. Furthermore, the correlation has experienced a slight increase since 2009, which coincides with the worldwide protectionist policies adopted in the depth of the global financial crisis.

The savings and investment relationship: The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle revisited

This paper revisits the Feldstein Horioka (FH) puzzle by estimating a time varying parameter model through Kalman filtering. The paper investigated the existence of savings and investment relationship for 22 OECD countries. We found evidence that the time varying saving retention coefficient has gradually declined since mid 70’s for most of the countries in our sample. Average time varying saving retention coefficient for the entire sample also showed steady decline as well. The degree of capital mobility is increasing as the world financial markets are becoming increasingly integrated over time. Therefore, the savings and investment relationship will go through a dynamic process. The current study tries to capture this dynamic relationship between savings and investment using a state-space model.

More Finance or Better Finance in Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle: Evidence from SSA Countries

This study examined the role of financial development in the Feldstein–Horioka (FH) puzzle for 31 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries for the period 1999–2011. Unlike previous studies that used traditional measures of finance (‘more finance’), we advocated for superior measures of financial development (‘better finance’). The baseline regression shows that ‘more finance’ increases the FH estimate, while ‘better finance’ serves as drag to the same retention coefficients. The reverse of these results was obtained when the baseline regression was extended to account for the interaction between savings and proxies for finance. The results obtained show a considerable improvement in the saving retention coefficient when ‘better finance’ was used as against ‘more finance’. This concretely reinforces the superior role of ‘better finance’ in mobilizing, distributing and utilizing savings for investment within these economies. Based on these findings, domestic resource mobilization can be a veritable vehicle for plugging the substantial investment gap in these SSA economies. However, such policy thrust must be complemented by far-reaching financial reforms.

International capital mobility in West Africa: A panel cointegration approach

The study investigates the status of international capital mobility in West Africa using the saving retention coefficient of Feldstein–Horioka hypothesis. The hypothesis is predicated on the fact t...

The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Structural Breaks: Evidence from the Largest Countries of Asia

The purpose of this article is to investigate the level of capital mobility in the largest economies of Asia by testing the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Panel estimations using quarterly data for the period from 1995 to 2011 have been made for the seven largest economies of Asia, specifically Russia, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, India, Indonesia and China. This group of countries has gained significant economic power in the world over the last decade. Specifically, the growth rates of the sample has for a long period of time exceeded the growth rates of most developed countries. The total GDP adjusted for PPP is far above of the GDP of the European Union and NAFTA groups and very close to the G7 group. The article examines changes in investment savings relationships when the presence of structural shifts—where such exist—is taken into account. Recently developed panel techniques are employed to examine the investment–savings relationship and estimate saving–retention coefficients. As a result of these estimations, countries were divided into two groups consisting of stable and unstable economies. This division of countries allows for more precise estimates of capital mobility. The empirical findings reveal the existence of the moderate level of capital mobility in the group. Results indicate that countries with relatively higher capital mobility are exposed to the negative effects of international market fluctuations. JEL Classification: F32

Time-varying saving–investment relationship and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle

Numerous studies have been devoted to the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. However, no consensus has been reached in the literature. This paper examines the dynamic saving–investment relationship by using a time varying cointegration model. The saving-retention coefficients are found to be high for developed economies, but low for less developed economies, which could be explained by the difference of the long-run solvency constraint between developed and less developed economies. While more evidence is found for time-varying cointegration using quarterly data, the magnitudes of saving retention coefficients have no substantial difference from those of annual data.

Capital mobility in Russia

This paper investigates the level of capital mobility in Russia, testing the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle proposed by Feldstein and Horioka (1980). The study examines relations between saving and investment flows in Russia in the presence of structural breaks. It employs the quarterly data for the period 1995-2013, where all estimations are made for two periods, the full period 1995-2013, and 2000-2013, the post Russian crisis period. The empirical analysis includes the Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) structural break test to determine the presence of structural breaks in series and to estimate the saving-retention coefficient under the consideration of structural shifts. To allow for comparison, the parameters of the model were estimated employing the OLS and FMOLS procedures. To test the cointegration relationships between investment and saving flows of Russia, three different cointegration tests were applied to the data. First applied was the Gregory and Hansen (1996) cointegration test, which allows for one structural shift; then, in a case where two breaks were detected, the Hatemi-J (2008) cointegration test was employed. Finally, for a case where more than two breaks are detected, the Maki (2012) cointegration test, which allows for an unknown number of breaks, was applied. The results of this study provide evidence of high capital mobility and reject the existence of the FHP in the post-Russian crisis period. However, failure to reject the hypothesis of no cointegration by all employed cointegration tests denies the solvency of a current account of Russia.

Is there a role for governance in the saving-investment nexus for Sub-Saharan Africa?

The study broke some yet to be explored ground in the literature on the Feldstein-Horioka (FH) puzzle. Precisely, it uncovered the role of institutions (particularly governance) in the saving-investment causal nexus using data on a panel of 37 sub-Saharan Africa countries, over the period spanning 1996 through 2010. Deploying a battery of panel estimators, the findings further lend support to earlier opinions on the bound of ranges of saving retention coefficients for the region. More specifically, the coefficients are −0.014, 0.200 and 0.21 in the ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) regressions, respectively. These estimates are largely synonymous to those reported for SSA in extant studies. Interestingly, considerable improvement was recorded in the saving coefficient from 0.20 to 0.361 when governance was interacted with saving. This concretely reinforces the useful role of governance in mobilizing saving for investment within these economies. Based on these findings, domestic resource mobilisation can be a veritable vehicle for plugging the substantial investment gap in these SSA economies. However, such policy thrust must be necessarily complemented by far-reaching governance reforms.

Revisiting the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle with regime switching: New evidence from European countries

Feldstein and Horioka (1980) propose assessing the degree of capital mobility by measuring the correlation between saving and investment. The high correlation between saving and investment is known as the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle (FHP). This study tests for the presence of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in nine European countries by employing the Markov switching model in order to characterize the time-varying behavior of the saving retention coefficient. The econometric methodology allows us to distinguish periods for which the FHP holds from those for which the FHP does not hold. It is found that, based on the results from the Markov switching regression, there is a shift in the saving retention coefficients from high to low values, meaning that regime switching has taken place from the high correlation regime (low capital mobility) to the low correlation regime (high capital mobility) for Denmark, Germany, Norway, and Sweden. This evidence suggests that the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle holds for a particular period of time and depends upon the regime shifts.

The “mother of all puzzles” at thirty: A meta-analysis

This paper provides a meta-analysis of 1651 point estimates of Feldstein and Horioka saving retention coefficient from 49 peer-reviewed papers published over three decades. We get two main results. First, correcting for publication bias, we find a consistent underlying coefficient lying between 0.56 and 0.67 for studies using the original paper. Second, heterogeneity reported in the estimates of the Feldstein and Horioka can be explained by a few main factors. In particular, we find evidence that the saving retention coefficient is systematically underestimated with models written in first difference, models using the saving ratio or the current account ratio as the dependent variable instead of the investment ratio, and models including indicators of the public deficit or indicators of the country size as additional explanatory variables.

Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle under Common Global Shocks: A Heterogenous Panel Data Approach

In this paper, we examine domestic saving-investment relationship for a panel data of 40 countries consisting both industrial and emerging economies for the 1960-2013 period. To this end, we employ the recent advanced panel data estimation procedures which consider potential heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependency, to estimate short-run and long-run coefficients. We find that the correlation between saving and investment is higher in the long run than in the short run consistent with inter-temporal budget constraint. Furthermore, in contrast to the findings of previous studies, our results suggest smaller saving retention coefficient and thus higher capital mobility for industrial countries relative to developing economies.

Terrorism, openness and the Feldstein–Horioka paradox

This paper investigates how terror threats and international openness affect the savings retention coefficient in the Feldstein–Horioka equation. We find that terrorism marginally increases the size of this coefficient, which may result from an increase in the precautionary saving motives. However, even a small increase in openness offsets this effect and significantly lowers the propensity to retain domestic savings for investment. This suggests that, given more channels, capital leaves domestic boundaries to land in safe places abroad. At least partly, the results explain the paradoxical finding in the literature that capital is more mobile in developing countries, even though they are less open. We also find that all types of terrorism reduce investment.

Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and International Capital Mobility in High Income Countries: A Pool Mean Group Approach

This paper reexamines the status of international capital mobility under the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) hypothesis by comparing the results from the OECD and non-OECD high income categories. Data on savings and investment ratios of 21 OECD and 17 non-OECD countries were analyzed using the dynamic heterogeneous panel estimators of Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Mean Group (MG) and Dynamic Fixed Effects (DFE). Based on the series of Hausman post-estimation test, result from the PMG is upheld. The saving-retention coefficient, showing the level of international capital mobility, reads 0.89, 0.93 and 0.16 for the high-income group, OECD category and non-OECD category respectively. This suggests lower capital mobility in high-income as a whole and OECD countries, and higher capital mobility in the non-OECD countries. The contradictory findings confirmed that the Feldstein-Horioka saving-retention coefficient is unlikely, a viable option of measuring cross-border capital mobility. Further researches therefore need to re-observe the qualification of saving-retention coefficient in explaining international capital mobility. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.25.5.3539

Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in Turkey

In this study, Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis on saving-investment relationship was tested for the period 1968-2008 in Turkey using Hansen-Seo, Gregory-Hansen and Hatemi-J models. First of all, when Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis was researched by Hansen-Seo method, the variables did not exhibit a nonlinear structure. Then, with Gregory-Hansen and Hatemi-J models, it was found that the saving-retention coefficient got a value close to 1 and 0.426 respectively. It was understood that the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle continued. The results obtained show that in testing Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis, instead of a fixed parameter assumption, applying test techniques that take endogenous structural breaks into consideration would give more reliable results.