Saving-investment Relationship Research Articles

The Saving-investment Relationship Revisited: New Evidence from Regime-switching Cointegration Approach

This paper exploits the regime-switching threshold cointegration approach to elicit the dynamics in the saving-investment relationship and capital mobility in India. Empirical results offer key insights into the threshold cointegration between the saving and investment rates. We find that the adjustment in investment rate in the upper regime is faster than in the lower regime, indicating the higher mobility of capital in the upper regime. Further, results reveal the absence of firm evidence of long-run vs. short-run asymmetries between saving and investment rates. However, results suggest that cumulative positive and negative sums of saving rates affect investment rates. We have made adjustments to cyclical and trend patterns in our data using Hamilton's (2018) filter and have produced robust results with regard to asymmetric cointegration. The posterior estimation results suggest that a downward trend in the saving rates substantially impacts the investment rates, and widening the gap between saving and investment rates facilitates huge mobility of international capital in the long run.

Saving-Investment Relationship in the Scope of Feldstein-Horioka Paradox: Panel ARDL Analysis on Fragile Five Countries

Uluslararası sermaye hareketliliğinin varlığında yurt içi tasarruf ile yatırım arasındaki güçlü ilişki Feldstein-Horioka Paradoksu (FHP) olarak isimlendirilmiştir. Çalışmanın amacı Kırılgan Beşli ülkelerinde 1960-2021 yılları arasındaki FHP’nin geçerliliğini incelemektir. Bunun için çalışmada Panel ARDL yöntemi ile analiz yapılmıştır. Analiz ile Kırılgan Beşli ülkelerinde uzun dönemde tasarruf ile yatırım arasında istatistiki olarak anlamlı ve pozitif ilişki, kısa dönem ise yatırım ve tasarruf arasında istatistiki olarak anlamlı fakat negatif bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Her ülke için sonuçlar tek tek değerIendirildiğinde ise kısa dönemse Hindistan ve Endonezya ülkelerinde istatistiki olarak anlamlı ve negatif ilişki elde edilirken diğer ülkelerde kısa dönemde anlamlı katsayılar elde edilememiştir. Çalışma sonucunda FHP’nin Kırılgan Beşli ülkelerinde uzun dönemde geçerliliği ortaya konarak bulgular değerlendirilmiştir.

The Relationship Between Savings and Investment: Evidence From Jordan

Purpose: This study aimed to examine the relationship between savings and investment in the Jordanian economy during the period (1980-2020).
 
 Design/Methodology/Approach: This study was done using Augmented Dicky Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests, and Lumsdaine and Papell unit root tests with structural breaks to determine if the time-series variables are stable or not. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test method was used in this study to test long-run relationship between savings and investment
 
 Findings: The findings of the Bounds test suggest a term savings-investment relationship. This outcome is consistent with a number of recent research reviewed in the literature that have shown that saving and investment are co-integrated in the long term.
 
 Practical implications: keeping a sustainable supply of savings should be a top policy goal for economic stability, which can assist policymakers and institutions in selecting their future actions.

The Rise and Fall of Financial Flows in EU 15: New Evidence Using Dynamic Panels with Common Correlated Effects.

This paper assesses capital mobility for a panel of 15 European countries for the period 1970-2019 using dynamic common correlated effects modeling as proposed in Chudik and Pesaran (J Econ 188(2):393-420, 2015). In particular, we account for the existence of cross section dependence, slope heterogeneity, nonstationarity and endogeneity in a multifactor error correction model (ECM) that includes one homogeneous break. The analysis also identifies the heterogeneous structural breaks affecting the relationship for each of the individual countries. The ECM setting allows for a complete assessment of the domestic saving-investment relationship in the long-run as well as two other elements usually neglected: short-run capital mobility and the speed of adjustment. When we account for a single homogeneous break, this is found at the euro inception. We obtain that long-run capital mobility is high but not perfect yet. We also provide empirical evidence for the Ford and Horioka (Appl Econ Lett, 24(2), 95-97, 2017)'s hypothesis, who argue that goods market integration is a necessary condition to obtain zero correlation between domestic saving-investment. Our results stress the role played by the euro as a booster for both financial and real integration. However, a complete degree of economic integration has not been fully achieved. Short-run capital was highly mobile for the whole period, with some exceptions, coinciding with turmoil episodes. Additionally, from the application of the CS-DL threshold analysis proposed by Chudik et al. (Adv Econ, 36, 85-135, 2016), we find that economic risk and openness play a key role in capital mobility.

Capital mobility in Latin American and Caribbean countries: alternative view on the “Feldstein-Horioka” coefficient

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine two issues, namely the degree of current account deficit (CAD) sustainability and the degree of capital mobility.Design/methodology/approachThe sample for this study comprises 24 Latin American and Caribbean countries, including three regional agreements: Andean Community, MERCOSUR (Mercado Común del Sur), and SICA (Central American Integration System). This study employs the dynamic common correlated effects mean group (DCCEMG) estimator in a panel data set to investigate the long-run relationship between savings and investment along with short-run dynamics.FindingsThe findings indicate that CAD is weakly sustainable in the Latin American and Caribbean region, MERCOSUR, and SICA, while CAD is strongly unsustainable in the Andean Community. The sub-period analysis reveals that CAD has been adversely affected by the 2008 crisis. However, in the post-crisis period, CAD has been slowly decreasing in the Latin American and Caribbean region and Andean Community, whereas CAD has continued increasing in MERCOSUR and SICA. Further, the estimates of error-correction terms and short-run coefficients indicate that the Andean Community and MERCOSUR observe a higher degree of long-run and short-run capital mobility than SICA.Practical implicationsThe results carry fundamental implications for policy-making processes aimed at maintaining sustainable CADs.Originality/valueThis study gives an alternative interpretation of the “Feldstein-Horioka” coefficient in terms of CAD sustainability and analyses the saving–investment relationship in light of Chudik and Pesaran (2015).

50 Years of Capital Mobility in the Eurozone: Breaking the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle

This paper assesses capital mobility for the Eurozone countries by studying the long-run relationship between domestic investment and savings for the period 1970-2019. Our main goal is to analyze the impact of economic events on capital mobility during this period. We apply the cointegration methodology in a setting that allows us to identify endogenous breaks in the long-run saving-investment relationship. Precisely, the breaks coincide with relevant economic events. We find a downward trend in the saving-investment retention since the 70s for the so-called “core countries”, whereas this trend is not so evident in the peripheral, where the financial and sovereign crises have had a more substantial impact. In addition, our analysis captures other economic events: the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) crisis, the German reunification, the European financial assistance program, and the post-crisis period. Our results also indicate that the original euro design had some flaws that remain unsolved.

An econometric modelling of the savings – investments nexus for Ghana

Introduction. The problem under discussion is whether savings are associated with investments in the long-term and whether savings predict investment with feedback or not. Addressing the problem is important since it informs policy formulation in the financial sector in ensuring efficient financial intermediation. The purpose of the article is looks at the savings-investment relationship for Ghana during the period 1960 to 2016. Methodology. Utilizing ARDL (with bounds testing) approach, the Granger predictive test, the Generalised Impulse Response Function, and Variance decomposition function. Results. The results indicate that a 1% increase in savings, GDP and financial development would result in a 0.069%, 0.266% and 0.125% increase respectively in investment in the short-term. It is discovered that savings do not cause investment in the long-run but rather in the short-run. The Granger causality test establishes a unidirectional causality running from savings to investment in the short-run. Discussion and Conclusion. The ramifications of the finding are that there is capital fixed status globally. Future examinations ought to consider structural break(s) issues as well as panel analysis to determine if the findings of the current study would be reproduced.

New insight into Feldstein and Horioka Paradox: Analyzing the mediating roles of globalization, urbanization, and foreign direct investment

Different dimensions abound to examine the famous Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle. However, after intense discussions of the subject matter for more than three decades, researchers are yet to reach consensus on the validity or otherwise of savings–investment relationship. In this paper, we revisited the Feldstein–Horioka saving-investment puzzle, and augment their investment equation with factors that drive capital mobility, such as globalization, foreign direct investment, and urbanization using more recent annual frequency time series data over the periods 1981–2018 in the case of Nigeria. We employed unit root test with structural breaks/regime shifts inherent in time series data and Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing for co-integration of empirical estimates. Results show existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among variables. Domestic savings, real income, and foreign direct investment reveal positive impact, while globalization and urbanization exhibit negative impact on domestic investment both in the short and long run. We find strong capital mobility among savings–investment relationship, thus render potential policy suggestions that would drive domestic investment and bring about sustainable economic growth in the long run.

Does the Feldstein–Horioka relationship vary with economic policy uncertainty?

ABSTRACT This research addresses the omitted-uncertainty bias and functional form misspecification problem when estimating the saving-investment relationship. We apply a semiparametric varying-coefficient cointegration approach to test for the presence of an ‘uncertainty-varying’ cointegrating relationship between savings and investment. Based on quarterly time series data for the U.S. from 1947Q1 to 2014Q4, we find that the saving-retention coefficient is a U-shaped function of economic policy uncertainty. This indicates that domestic investment is more constraint by domestic savings at very high and very low levels of uncertainty. Given the continued rise in economic policy uncertainty, our estimate predicts that domestic investment will become more constrained by domestic savings. Further sub-period analysis shows that the null hypothesis of the presence of an uncertainty-varying cointegrating relationship between savings and investment cannot be rejected in the recent sub-period of 1999Q1-2014Q4, suggesting that the U.S current account is sustainable.

The Role of Capital Inflow through Saving-Investment Framework: The Case of Indonesia

As major developing countries have limited domestic saving to generate capital accumulation, capital inflow plays substantial role to provide external financing. Several landmark literatures provide an empirical evidence that capital inflow contributed to the acceleration of economic growth through technology transfer, enhanced innovation, and capital accumulation. This research examines the role of capital inflow for the case of Indonesia using saving-investment relationship with quarterly data from 2000 to 2018. This study is comprised of three parts to measure the pattern of capital inflow in overall period, pre-global financial crisis, and post-crisis. Building on previous literature, this study will contribute to fill the gaps in existing literatures by employing error correction model (ECM) based on saving-investment framework of Feldstein-Horioka. This study found that over the whole sample period and post-crisis, both domestic saving and national saving in short-run, established low significant coefficient which signify high capital mobility, while in the long-run, domestic investment and saving have one-to-one relationship, which does not necessarily imply low capital mobility. The result on the pre-crisis period suggested that domestic saving and domestic investment is not statistically correlated for both short-run and long-run as there is not enough evidence to reject null hypothesis. This study confirms the growth theory model that suggests saving will be equal to investment in the steady state condition and the imbalance of saving and investment will be only transitory.

Capital market integration in ASEAN: A non-stationary panel data analysis

Motivated by the establishment of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) at the end of 2015, we examine saving-investment relationship in various subgroups of ASEAN to assess their capital market integration. The results from second generation panel unit-root and cointegration tests that account for cross-sectional dependence as well as estimates of long-run saving-retention rate provide some evidence of market integration in ASEAN. The analysis of short-run dynamics suggests that capital mobility in ASEAN during 1980–2014 appears similar to that in OECD countries during 1970–1999. More importantly, across different panel estimators and subgroups of membership, there is considerable heterogeneity among the member countries. The saving-investment association is very weak, thereby implying very high capital mobility, in more developed members such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Brunei; the association is very strong, implying very low capital mobility, for much less developed members such as Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia. The results call for renewed effort to develop capital markets in less developed nations and integrate them with the rest of the membership in ASEAN. In this paper, we also address several major shortcomings of the original Feldstein-Horioka framework.

Is the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle still with us? National saving-investment dynamics and international capital mobility: A panel data analysis across EU member countries

This paper investigates the degree of financial integration and international capital mobility by analysing the dynamics of national saving-investment relationships. We interpret the relationship between national saving and investment in the long run as reflecting a solvency constraint and focus on the short-term saving-investment relationship to assess the degree of capital mobility. We apply the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (1999) using data for 14 EU member countries from 1970 to 2013. Our empirical results suggest that there exists a close relationship between saving and investment in the long run that is consistent with the existence of a solvency constraint that is binding for each country in the long run. We also find that the parameter for the error-correction term is always highly significant, which supports the choice of an error-correction formulation. Moreover, we show that the parameter estimated for the error-correction term, i.e. the speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium, varies with the sample period considered. The estimated speed of adjustment becomes smaller in absolute terms as more recent data are included in the sample, which indicates that deviations from long- run equilibrium current accounts have become more persistent over time, signalling some degree of capital mobility.

Time-varying saving–investment relationship and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle

Numerous studies have been devoted to the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. However, no consensus has been reached in the literature. This paper examines the dynamic saving–investment relationship by using a time varying cointegration model. The saving-retention coefficients are found to be high for developed economies, but low for less developed economies, which could be explained by the difference of the long-run solvency constraint between developed and less developed economies. While more evidence is found for time-varying cointegration using quarterly data, the magnitudes of saving retention coefficients have no substantial difference from those of annual data.

Trade Openness, Size of Economy and the Saving–Investment Relationship: A Dynamic Analysis for Pakistan

The main objective of this study is to examine the saving–investment relationship with the size of economy and trade openness in Pakistan during the period 1960–2011. For this purpose, the study employed vector auto-regression (VAR) to check simultaneity among trade openness, economic growth and saving–investment. Findings of the study confirm a significant positive relationship among trade openness, economic growth, saving and investment of Pakistan in the long run, but these do not establish a significant short-run relationship among trade openness, economic growth, savings and investment. In light of empirical results, the present study suggests that external sector development should be given due importance. For this purpose, the availability of credit should be enhanced properly. This will not only increase the saving rate in the country but also enhance domestic investment. JEL Classification: A11, B12, C13, D14

International Capital Mobility and Saving-Investment Nexus in Nigeria: Revisiting Feldstein-Horioka Hypothesis

This paper tests the validity of Feldstein-Horioka (1980) hypothesis using Nigerian data from 1980 to 2013 by relying on the ARDL Bounds testing approach to co-integration and vector error correction model (VECM). Evidence for the hypothesis over the sub-samples is mixed given absence of co-integrating relationship between savings and investment in both periods. Over the period of market-friendly economic reform (1986 -2013) and entire sample period (1980-2013), we found low saving investment correlation indicating support for the F-H hypothesis (that low saving investment relationship implies high degree of international capital mobility). Presumably, the World Bank and IMF designed economic reform programs in form of liberalization and deregulation – coupled with the neo-liberal economic management framework that Nigeria is currently practicing – may have attenuated the saving investment relation in the reform era, thereby providing support for F-H hypothesis over the reform era. But the finding of similar absence of cointegration between saving and investment in the pre-reform era, against the F-H postulate, reveals the importance of incorporating factors such as money supply and inflow of foreign capital that could affect the saving investment relationship as widely suggested in the literature. Overall, we find support for high degree of international capital mobility across Nigerian borders that may lead to unsustainable current account balance for the economy if left unregulated. The policy import of the paper is the need for a more conscientious implementation of a policy of guided deregulation of Nigeria’s capital and trade accounts.

Global Capital Mobility: Some New Empirical Evidence

Using Saving-Investment relationship as indirect evidence of global capital mobility, this paper empirically examines the capital mobility hypothesis using new data for forty developing countries. The paper utilizes annual data over 1960-2013 period, the longest time period of 54 years for as many developing countries ever used with a panel sample size of 2,160 (40 x 54) annual observations, the longest time periods and largest cross-sections ever used previously. For this study, panel regression analysis was used to estimate the relationship and then use the relationship to test some hypothesis regarding the capital mobility. The study finds evidence of partial capital mobility among the sample developing countries, and the degree of capital mobility was found to be stronger than that originally found by Feldstein and Horioka

Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle under Common Global Shocks: A Heterogenous Panel Data Approach

In this paper, we examine domestic saving-investment relationship for a panel data of 40 countries consisting both industrial and emerging economies for the 1960-2013 period. To this end, we employ the recent advanced panel data estimation procedures which consider potential heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependency, to estimate short-run and long-run coefficients. We find that the correlation between saving and investment is higher in the long run than in the short run consistent with inter-temporal budget constraint. Furthermore, in contrast to the findings of previous studies, our results suggest smaller saving retention coefficient and thus higher capital mobility for industrial countries relative to developing economies.

International Capital Mobility and Saving-Investment Relationship in the Newly Industrialized Countries

This paper investigates the Feldstein-Horioka coefficients and evaluates the degree of international capital mobility for ten newly industrialized countries (NICs) over the different sub-periods from 1970 to 2010. By applying the Pedroni and Westerlund cointegration tests, we find that saving and investment are indeed cointegrated. The estimated FH coefficients using FMOLS and DOLS are 0.24 and 0.33, respectively, for the period 1970–1980. Furthermore, the estimated FH coefficients reduce from 0.80 (FMOLS) in 1991–2000 to 0.36 (FMOLS) in 1970–1980. The small FH coefficients suggest that international capital mobility increased in the NICs during the sub-periods 1970–1980 and 2001–2010.

Financial crisis and saving–investment dynamics in the presence of cross-sectional dependence: The case of East Asia

Using the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) technique to a set of balanced panel error correction model, we examine the effects of the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the global financial crisis of 2008 on the behavior of saving and investment in East Asian countries. Our results show that saving and investment rates are highly dependent across countries of East Asia. This finding underlines the importance of taking into account cross-sectional dependence when analyzing saving–investment relationship. The results also indicate that the adverse financial shock of 1997 has negatively affected the short run correlation between saving and investment, but has not influenced their long run relationship. Our finding, hence, verifies the prediction of new open economy macroeconomic theories regarding the divergence of short run saving–investment from its long run trend for East Asia. Moreover, we find that the global financial crisis of 2008 has not affected the saving–investment dynamics in this region. It means that the consequences of the Asian and global financial crises for saving–investment dynamics are not the same in East Asia. One might attribute these differences to the origins of these two shocks, i.e., internal versus external to the region. These findings may have some policy implications for those countries that rely heavily on foreign investment and are subject to various internal and external financial shocks.

Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in Turkey

In this study, Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis on saving-investment relationship was tested for the period 1968-2008 in Turkey using Hansen-Seo, Gregory-Hansen and Hatemi-J models. First of all, when Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis was researched by Hansen-Seo method, the variables did not exhibit a nonlinear structure. Then, with Gregory-Hansen and Hatemi-J models, it was found that the saving-retention coefficient got a value close to 1 and 0.426 respectively. It was understood that the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle continued. The results obtained show that in testing Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis, instead of a fixed parameter assumption, applying test techniques that take endogenous structural breaks into consideration would give more reliable results.