Loxodonta Research Articles

Patterns of spatial dynamics and distribution of african elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Central Kalahari Game Reserve, Botswana

The African elephant (Loxodonta africana), once thought to be absent from the Kalahari Desert in Southern Africa, has recently reestablished or expanded its range into the Central Kalahari Game Reserve (CKGR), Botswana, with documented occurrences over the past decade. This study explores the temporal and spatial dynamics of elephants in and around the CKGR, focusing on their largely understudied movement patterns. Movement and home range data was obtained from two adult female and eight adult male elephants using GPS/UHF collars. The analysis revealed distinct seasonal ranging behaviours. Collared females migrated between CKGR and the Okavango Delta periphery, while collared male showed both migratory and sedentary patterns around artificial water points and Gope mine in CKGR. Some collared male elephants migrated to the Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA) during the wet season, returning to the CKGR in the dry season. This pattern confirms established migration routes and the emergence of pseudo-resident male elephants within CKGR. These findings highlight the importance of management strategies that integrate water distribution, elephant movement, and human-elephant conflicts. Ensuring ecological connectivity beyond the KAZA region is vital for the long-term survival of elephants and other key species.

Impact of drought and development on the effectiveness of beehive fences as elephant deterrents over 9 years in Kenya

AbstractHuman–elephant conflict is growing in Africa as human populations and development increases, creating disturbance to elephant habitats. Beehive fences have been trialed as a coexistence tool with some success but all studies have looked at small sample sizes over a short time period. Our study analyses the behavior of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) that approached a network of beehive fence protected farms in two conflict villages over 9 years next to Tsavo East National Park. We compare differences in elephant raids and beehive occupation rates annually, during a drought, and during peak crop production seasons. Out of 3999 elephants approaching our study farms 1007 elephants broke the beehive fence and entered the protected farm areas (25.18%). This was significantly less than the 2649 encounters where elephants remained either outside the farm boundary or broke into the control farms (66.24%). A further 343 elephants entered the farm by walking through a gap at the end of a fence (8.56%). The annual beehive fence break‐through rates averaged 23.96% (±SE 3.15) resulting in a mean of 76.04% elephants deterred from beehive fences protected farm plots. Over six peak crop growing seasons the beehive fences kept between 78.3% and 86.3% of elephants out of the farms and crops. The beehive fences produced one ton of honey sold for $2250; however, a drought caused a 75% reduction in hive occupation rates and honey production for 3 years after negatively impacting honey profits and the effectiveness of the fences. Beehive fences are very effective at reducing up to 86.3% of elephant crop‐raids during peak crop seasons after good rainfall, but any increase in elephant habitat disturbance or the frequency and duration of droughts could reduce their effectiveness as a successful coexistence tool.

A spatially explicit assessment of factors shaping attitudes toward African elephant conservation.

Conservation plans that explicitly account for the social landscape where people and wildlife co-occur can yield more effective and equitable conservation practices and outcomes. Yet, social data remain underutilized, often because social data are treated as aspatial or are analyzed with approaches that do not quantify uncertainty or address bias in self-reported data. We conducted a survey (questionnaires) of 177 households in a multiuse landscape in the Kenya-Tanzania borderlands. In a mixed-methods approach, we used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify and map local attitudes toward African elephant (Loxodonta africana) conservation while accounting for response bias and then combined inference from attitude models with thematic analysis of open-ended responses and cointerpretation of results with local communities to gain deeper understanding of what explains attitudes of people living with wildlife. Model estimates showed that believing elephants have sociocultural value increased the probability of respondents holding positive attitudes toward elephant conservation in general (mean increase=0.31 [95% credible interval, CrI, 0.02-0.67]), but experiencing negative impacts from any wildlife species lowered the probability of respondents holding a positive attitude toward local elephant conservation (mean decrease=-0.20 [95% CrI -0.42 to 0.03]). Qualitative data revealed that safety and well-being concerns related to the perceived threats that elephants pose to human lives and livelihoods, and limited incentives to support conservation on community and private lands lowered positive local attitude probabilities and contributed to negative perceptions of human-elephant coexistence. Our spatially explicit modeling approach revealed fine-scale variation in drivers of conservation attitudes that can inform targeted conservation planning. Our results suggest that approaches focused on sustaining existing sociocultural values and relationships with wildlife, investing in well-being, and implementing species-agnostic approaches to wildlife impact mitigation could improve conservation outcomes in shared landscapes.

Do elephants really never forget? What we know about elephant memory and a call for further investigation.

Despite popular culture's promotion of the elephant's ability to "never forget," there is remarkably limited empirical research on the memory capacities of any living elephant species (Asian, Elephas maximus; African savanna, Loxodonta africana; African forest, Loxodonta cyclotis). A growing body of literature on elephant cognition and behavioral ecology has provided insight into the elephant's ability to behave flexibly in changing physical and social environments, but little direct evidence of how memory might relate to this flexibility exists. In this paper, we review and discuss the potential relationships between what we know about elephant cognition and behavior and the elephants' memory for the world around them as they navigate their physical, social, and spatial environments. We also discuss future directions for investigating elephant memory and implications for such research on elephant conservation and human-elephant conflict mitigation.

Modelling Tree Allometries to Understand the Impact of African Savannah Elephant Herbivory Dynamics on the Vegetation Structure and Tree Cover Change in a Protected Area

ABSTRACTIn landscapes with high elephant density, trees often exhibit more open canopies with fewer branches and foliage due to browsing pressure. This can result in altered tree morphology, with trees exhibiting stunted growth, multiple stems or unusual branching patterns in response to repeated damage from browsing. The objectives of this research were to (i) model the vegetation structure allometries, (ii) assess the impact of African savannah elephant (Loxodonta africana) herbivory on the vegetation structure and (iii) assess tree cover change and vegetation performance over time in Mana Pools National Park in Zimbabwe. We established 26 plots of 30 × 30 m size. Selection of sampling plots was done following several steps. First, a fish net grid with 30 × 30 m polygons was created and projected on the polygon of Mana Pools National Park. The polygons for exclusion zones were then clipped from the fish net grid using the clip tool in ArcGIS Pro 3.0. Then, selection of sampling plots was done initially by stratified random sampling using the Sampling Design Tool add in for ArcGIS Pro 3.0. Landsat images for the years 2003, 2013 and 2023 were used to assess land use land cover (LULC) time series and to calculate Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) for the period. A generalised linear model (GLM) was used to analyse tree allometries. Further statistical investigations were performed using Bayesian piecewise regression (BPR) and Bayesian regression modelling (BRM). Basal area, number of stems, height, long canopy, diameter and basal circumference were all significantly different (p < 0.05) across all sampled plots. The change in growing conditions occurring as a tree grows beyond the reach of the African savannah elephant browsing indicates a natural system breakpoint. The best‐fitting models were a simple linear model and a two breakpoint model for the plant population exposed to elephant herbivory. LULC, NDVI and SAVI confirm evidence of high tree regeneration over 2 decades. Understanding the dynamics in vegetation and LULC changes is critical for effective conservation and management of the habitats for African savannah elephants, as well as for maintaining the health and resilience of forest ecosystems.

Comparative study of the body proportions in Elephantidae and other large herbivorous mammals.

In this study, we aimed to achieve three objectives: (1) to precisely characterize the body plans ofElephantidae and other large herbivorous mammals; (2) based on this analysis, to determine whether the body plans of the extinct woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) and steppe mammoth (M. trogontherii) differ from those of modern-day Elephantidae: the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus), the African bush (Loxodonta africana), and forest (L. cyclotis) elephants; (3) to analyze how the body plans have changed in extant perissodactyls and proboscideans compared with their Paleogene ancestors. To accomplish this, we studied mammoth skeletons from the collections of Russian museums and compared this data with a large number of skeletons of extant elephantids, odd-toed, and even-toed ungulates, as well as their extinct relatives. We showed that three genera of Elephantidae are characterized by a homogeneous body plan, which is markedly different from other large herbivores. Elephantids break the interrelationship, that exists in artiodactyls and perissodactyls, between the total length of the head and neck on one side and the limb's segments on the other. Their limbs are very tall (inferior in this regard among large ungulates only to the giraffe), and, contrary to the other large herbivorous mammals, elongated due to the length of the proximal segments. This allows them to effectively utilize the principle of inverted pendulum (straight-legged walking) in locomotion. The biggest differences in the body plan of mammoths compared with extant elephants are a markedly larger pelvis, elongated fore- and hindlimbs (due to the increased relative length of their proximal segments), and different proportions of the skull. The body plans of plesiomorphic Paleogene proboscideans and perissodactyls differed markedly from their descendants in every body part; these differences are related, on the one hand, to the allometric growth, and on the other hand, to the advancement of the locomotor apparatus in the course of their evolution. The most notable difference in the body plan between Paleogene proboscidean Moeritherium and extant Elephantidae is the ~2-fold increase in relative limb height.

Do African Savanna Elephants (Loxodonta africana) Show Interspecific Social Long-Term Memory for Their Zoo Keepers?

"An elephant never forgets" is a popular phrase that refers not only to the elephant's extraordinary ability to remember migration routes but also to its pronounced social long-term memory (SLTM). Previous studies have shown intra- and interspecies SLTM performance, but the ability of elephants to have memories of individual humans has not yet been investigated. We tested this interspecific SLTM using auditory, olfactory, and visual stimuli, each from familiar and unfamiliar persons, in two African savanna elephant (Loxodonta africana) cows living in a zoo. The two-choice object tests revealed a higher interest in sensory stimuli from familiar keepers they had not seen for 13 years than in unfamiliar people. Statistically significant differences were found for olfactory stimuli. In addition, there was significantly more interest in visual stimuli from current keepers than in stimuli from unfamiliar people. Contrary to the results of a previous study with elephants, this was not observed for olfactory stimuli. Due to the small sample size and magnitude of the influencing factors, that is, outdoor experiment, only spatial separation of the animals, these results only represent indications of the possible interspecific SLTM. Nevertheless, we were able to provide the first empirical evidence that L. africana stores information about specific people over a long period of time. Further studies with larger sample sizes, cross-modal testing, and people disliked by the elephants could provide more insights.

A comparison of home range estimates using the time local convex hull (T‐LoCoH) and minimum convex polygon (MCP) methods for African savannah elephants in a semi‐arid protected area

A comparison of home range estimates using the time local convex hull (T‐LoCoH) and minimum convex polygon (MCP) methods for African savannah elephants in a semi‐arid protected area

Serum 25(OH)D Analysis in Captive Pachyderms (Loxodonta africana, Elephas maximus, Diceros bicornis, Rhinoceros unicornis, Tapirus indicus) in Europe.

This study aimed to detect seasonal and species differences in serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations during summer and winter months in captive pachyderms in Europe. Both elephant species had low 25(OH)D while African elephants did not show a seasonal variation. Asian elephants had significantly higher 25(OH)D compared to their African counterparts but also did not show a seasonal difference. Both rhinoceros species investigated had higher 25(OH)D compared to both elephant species; the Indian rhinoceros had high circulating levels year-round, while the black rhinoceroses showed significantly lower 25(OH)D in winter. Malayan tapirs have very low 25(OH)D, comparable to horses. The higher 25(OH)D of elephants and rhinoceroses could indicate that elephants and rhinoceroses are capable of producing vitamin D. This might indicate that the Indian rhinoceroses are capable of producing enough endogenous vitamin D year-round at latitudes around 52° N, while both elephant species and the black rhinoceros are not. This study also showed that it is likely that both elephant species and rhinoceros species are capable of absorbing cholecalciferol from the digestive tract, according to the existing literature, while tapirs may not.

Elephants develop wrinkles through both form and function.

The trunks of elephants have prominent wrinkles from their base to the very tip. But neither the obvious differences in wrinkles between elephant species nor their development have been studied before. In this work, we characterize the lifelong development of trunk wrinkles in Asian and African elephants. Asian elephants have more dorsal major, meaning deep and wide, trunk wrinkles (approx. 126 ± 25 s.d.) than African elephants (approx. 83 ± 13 s.d.). Both species have more dorsal than ventral major trunk wrinkles and a closer wrinkle spacing distally than proximally. In Asian elephants, wrinkle density is high in the 'trunk wrapping zone'. Wrinkle numbers on the left and right sides of the distal trunk differed as a function of trunk lateralization, with frequent bending in one direction causing wrinkle formation. Micro-computed tomography (microCT) imaging and microscopy of newborn elephants' trunks revealed a constant thickness of the putative epidermis, whereas the putative dermis shrinks in the wrinkle troughs. During fetal development, wrinkle numbers double every 20 days in an early exponential phase. Later wrinkles are added slowly, but at a faster rate in Asian than African elephants. We discuss the relationship of species differences in trunk wrinkle distribution and number with behavioural, environmental and biomechanical factors.

Co – creation Approaches to Improve Conservation Efforts of African Elephant Populations in Nigeria

Scientific sources and the IUCN reveal the decline in African Elephant populations, and new Redlist status for both the Forest and Savannah African Elephants. Efforts are ongoing to improve conservation of Forest and Savannah Elephants in Nigeria through engagement of local communities adjoining Protected Areas. This study investigates the willingness of local communities to co-create approaches that support elephants’ conservation efforts. The study was carried out in Omo Forest Reserve, South – western, Nigeria and Yankari Game Reserve, North-eastern part of the country, for forest and savannah Elephants respectively. Mixed methods of questionnaires, outreaches, and youth engagement were used to collect data. The data was analyzed using simple averages, chi-square, and ANOVA tests. The study’s findings reveal that 95.0% of participants agree that elephants should be protected. About 88.0% of the participants also agree that communities will benefit from elephant protection and 60.0% attribute the value of elephants to eco- tourism, while 45.0% for revenue generation. In addition, 41.0% of the participants have experience in co-creation approaches for wildlife conservation. Participants showed willingness and support to participate in elephant conservation efforts. Therefore, concerted efforts of co – creation approaches need to be further explored for sustainable elephant conservation efforts in Nigeria. Key words: co-creation, elephant conservation, sustainability, local communities, biodiversity

Odour information enables patch choice by mammalian herbivores from afar, leading to predictable plant associational effects

Abstract Neighbouring plants can alter the susceptibility of high‐quality focal plants to herbivores by affecting herbivore patch choice. Herbivores can use plant odour to make patch‐scale foraging decisions from afar, but the actual information they rely on within complex plant odours is rarely defined. Revealing the information enabling patch choice by herbivores will provide the mechanistic link underpinning associational effects of plant neighbours arising from these foraging decisions. Here, our first aim was to test whether odour cues alone enable a mammalian herbivore to make patch choice decisions leading to predictable associational effects of neighbours on high‐quality focal plants. Our second aim was then to test whether artificial odour, designed to mimic the informative odour component within the whole odour profile of low‐quality neighbours, is as effective as real plants in influencing patch choice and associational refuge. We tested patch choice by African elephants, Loxodonta africana using a giant Y‐maze and real or artificial plant odours as the only cues for the neighbours of a high‐quality focal plant. We quantified the probability of various odour treatments being chosen in comparison with the odour of a focal plant alone. Compared with focal plants alone, we found that elephants were more likely to choose patches with the focal plant plus high‐quality neighbours of the same or different species, but less likely to choose patches with the focal plant plus low‐quality neighbours. We also demonstrated that an artificial subset of odours, designed to be informative, were as effective as real low‐quality neighbours in influencing patch choice and hence associational refuge to the focal plant. Our results demonstrate a key role of plant odour—and specifically informative components within complex odour profiles—in patch choice decisions by a mammalian herbivore, leading to plant associational effects on high‐quality focal plants. Understanding what olfactory information herbivores use when deciding which patches to visit or avoid, and how it affects focal plant susceptibility is important ecologically. Non‐random patch choice will not only affect individual fitness of herbivores, but also shape plant community dynamics through impacting plant survival and recruitment. Furthermore, artificially re‐creating odour information could offer a new tool to influence herbivore foraging decisions, with implications for wildlife management and conservation, including plant protection. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Behavioral Coding of Captive African Elephants (Loxodonta africana): Utilizing DeepLabCut and Create ML for Nocturnal Activity Tracking

This study investigates the possibility of using machine learning models created in DeepLabCut and Create ML to automate aspects of behavioral coding and aid in behavioral analysis. Two models with different capabilities and complexities were constructed and compared to a manually observed control period. The accuracy of the models was assessed by comparison with manually scoring, before being applied to seven nights of footage of the nocturnal behavior of two African elephants (Loxodonta africana). The resulting data were used to draw conclusions regarding behavioral differences between the two elephants and between individually observed nights, thus proving that such models can aid researchers in behavioral analysis. The models were capable of tracking simple behaviors with high accuracy, but had certain limitations regarding detection of complex behaviors, such as the stereotyped behavior sway, and displayed confusion when deciding between visually similar behaviors. Further expansion of such models may be desired to create a more capable aid with the possibility of automating behavioral coding.

Seasonal variation of home range size and habitat selection of elephants in the Kabompo landscape of Zambia

BackgroundMovements of large herbivores and habitat utilization provide critical information for ecological monitoring and conservation. However, such geospatial information rarely exists, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to provide insight on seasonal variation of home range size and habitat utilization by African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) in Zambia’s Kabompo Landscape.MethodsTwo male sub-adult elephants (estimated age 10–15 years) were collared and monitored between March 2018 and December 2021 using the Geographic Position System (GPS) tracking devices. We used Minimum Convex Polygon (MCP), which uses the outermost points, to arrive at the largest home range of a study subject and the Kernel Density Estimator (KDE), which captures the intensity use of various parts of the home range. Distance from the river, elevation, slope, land cover type, fire intensity and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were assessed against habitat selection by elephants using multinomial logistic regression.ResultsThe findings showed that the movements of the elephants were largely confined within the West Lunga National Park. The wet season had the largest home range (1720.8 km2) dominated by grassland, while the cold dry season had the smallest area of 931.8 km2. Elevation and land cover types had significant (p-value < 0.05) influence on home range across all the seasons. Other factors also had positive and negative impacts on the home range selection depending on the season.ConclusionsThe insights from this study can be exemplary relevant to conservation planning through monitoring seasonal movement of elephants.

Habitat use strategies of African elephants under different seasonal and ecological constraints

Habitat use strategies of African elephants under different seasonal and ecological constraints

Elephant Gestation: Insights Into Idiopathic Abortions and Stillbirth.

The declining African and Asian elephant populations emphasize the importance of a backup population. Successful reproduction in captivity plays a key role in maintaining such a genetically diverse ex situ population but is challenged by reproductive loss in the form of abortions and stillbirths. The elephants' biphasic prolactin pattern led us to predict a higher incidence of abortions during the time of reduced prolactin concentrations. Therefore, this study focuses on the identification of months during elephant gestation which are prone to loss of pregnancy. A metric was developed to identify the fetal age of aborted calves based on the fetal mass using a regression model. Data on idiopathic abortions in captive and wild elephants collected from zoos, tourist camps, semi-captive, and free-ranging populations since 1974 were analyzed, revealing a significantly higher prevalence of abortions during the 15th and 17th month of gestation. Additionally, the prevalence of stillbirths in the 22nd month of gestation between 2000 and 2023 was assessed. Although stillbirths showed a declining trend over time, the average prevalence between 2019 and 2023 was still 2.8%. Consequently, the 15th, 17th, and 22nd month of gestation were identified as stages prone to pregnancy loss. These findings underscore the necessity of researching risk factors and preventative measures for pregnancy loss in these 3 months, especially exploring a possible link with prolactin during the 15th and 17th month of gestation. The identification of stages prone to fetal loss is a key step towards enhancing elephant reproductive success and welfare.

Lack of crucial information exacerbates barriers to mitigating human–elephant conflicts in rural Kenya

Abstract Crop foraging by African savannah elephants Loxodonta africana negatively affects farmer livelihoods and support for conservation, yet affordable, sustainable and practical solutions remain elusive. To inform conservation priorities, our goal was to assess the hitherto little explored relationships between farmers’ views on agricultural damage and the socio-economic factors limiting their use of elephant deterrents. We tested our hypotheses associated with the demographic categories of age, education level, years spent farming, gender, exposure to information on deterrent methods, farm size, village and relevant combinations of these factors by surveying 206 respondents across six villages in rural Kenya and analysing the resulting data using an information theoretic approach. Respondents were almost four times more likely to use deterrents if exposed to the relevant information, and almost five times more likely to do so if they had secondary education as opposed to none. Farmers with a higher level of education were five times more likely to have received information on deterrents compared to those with no formal education. Participants who had not received information on deterrents were almost three times more likely to believe that they could implement deterrent methods. Respondents who stated that they could not implement deterrents overwhelmingly cited a lack of financial resources as the reason. Overall, we found that crucial information on reducing elephant crop foraging is not reaching the relevant stakeholders, and socio-economic factors such as education and exposure to information appear to limit uptake of protective measures. These insights are important for developing mitigation strategies and supporting the livelihoods of people affected by negative human–elephant interactions, and thus for effective elephant conservation. Our findings also have broader applications for practitioners seeking to understand barriers stakeholders face in their efforts to mitigate negative interactions with wildlife.

Landscape connectivity for African elephants in the world's largest transfrontier conservation area: A collaborative, multi‐scalar assessment

Abstract Landscape connectivity operates at a variety of scales, depending on the geography of the area in question and the focal species or ecological process under consideration. Most connectivity studies, however, are typically focused on a single scale, which in the case of resistance‐based connectivity modelling, is often the entire landscape or protected area (PA) network. This large, single‐scale focus may miss areas that are important for connectivity at smaller scales and that can be documented via observed animal movements without resorting to landscape‐wide statistical modelling and extrapolation approaches. Here, we characterize landscape connectivity at three different scales (local/micro, inter‐PA, and landscape‐wide/macro), using observed animal movements rather than conventional resistance surface models, to produce a connectivity conservation blueprint for African elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Kavango‐Zambezi transfrontier conservation area (KAZA) in southern Africa. This analysis is based on an extensive, high‐resolution GPS tracking database comprising approximately 4 million GPS locations from nearly 300 tagged elephants and their associated herds. Our results show that high‐fidelity elephant use of micro‐corridors is typically—though not exclusively—related to directed movements towards water, often amidst heavy anthropogenic presence. Movement pathways that connected KAZA's core protected areas were longer and variable, with some channelled into narrow areas of use and others more dispersed across larger sub‐landscapes. At the largest scale, a network analysis incorporating all used landscape grid cells revealed several clusters of large‐scale movement corridors that connected distant parts of KAZA. Synthesis and applications: Our three scales of analyses reveal disparate geographical priorities for connectivity conservation that collectively could help ensure the functional connectivity of KAZA for its largest inhabitants. Each scale will require its own set of inter‐related conservation interventions, while further research into areas with sparse data collection, and other species of conservation concern, could reveal additional connectivity priorities at each scale.

Chilli Cakes: A Nature-Based Solution for Enhancing Human-Wildlife Coexistence and Socio-Economic Resilience in Zimbabwe

Abstract Gonarezhou National Park (GNP) in Zimbabwe is home to a thriving population of African elephants ( Loxodonta africana ). However, this population faces constant threats stemming from human encroachment and habitat degradation, exacerbated by unplanned cultivation and a growing number of domestic livestock. As human and elephant interactions increase, so does the incidence of human-elephant conflict (HEC), posing a significant risk to both communities and elephants alike. This conflict jeopardizes the survival of elephants that venture beyond the confines of the protected area. In defence, the farmers employ various strategies to minimize HECs, including burning chilli peppers, beating drums and fire, deploying bee hives, employing dogs, and utilizing other defensive measures. A study conducted in 2019 identified HEC hot spots through GPS-tracking elephants. A collaboration with affected farmers was then sought in developing a more sustainable solution for mitigating HEC. As a result, a novel product named “Chilli Cake” was developed, drawing upon traditional knowledge and innovative science techniques to deter elephants from raiding crops. The chilli cake initiative successfully reduced HECs and improved crop protection for farmers in Malipati. These findings carry significant implications for elephant conservation through the promotion of coexistence between wildlife and people while promoting community resilience which is the basis for sustainable development in Zimbabwe and beyond. Information © The Authors 2024

Predicting the Dry Season Habitat Occupancy of African Savannah Elephant Using Vegetation Indices and Modelling Landscape Variability in a Mesic Protected Area

ABSTRACTAfrican savannah elephants (Loxodonta africana) are key ecosystem engineers that migrate over large spatiotemporal scales foraging as they require copious amounts of food and water across habitable landscapes. Therefore a need to understand movement patterns arises in relation to vegetation type and landscape variability, moreso in forage depauparate arid areas such as Gonarezhou National Park (GNP) in Zimbabwe. The objectives of this study were to: (i) assess the performance of vegetation indices in modelling the distribution of African savannah elephants, and (ii) model future landscape variability in Gonarezhou National Park (GNP) in Zimbabwe. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm was used to explore the relationship between vegetation indices and distribution of African savannah elephants in the GNP. The Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) performs better relative to other indices in modelling the distribution of African savannah elephants across all habitat types in the GNP. Cellular automata‐Artificial Neural Network (CA‐ANN) showed a significant future decrease (Kruskal Anova; p &lt; 0.05) in landscape suitable to sustain large populations of African savannah elephants in the GNP by the year 2083. Future remote sensing reveals directional insights into the future consequences of current landscape management for African savannah elephant conservation which is a crucial in the sustainability of climate threatened arid protected areas such as the GNP.