To systematically analyze the impact of manufactured sand on the abrasion resistance of concrete, this paper investigates the correlation between sand type, sand ratio, stone powder content, compressive strength, and the abrasion resistance of manufactured sand concrete. Grey correlation analysis was conducted to assess the impact priority of each factor affecting the abrasion resistance, and prediction models for the abrasion resistance were developed using XGBoost, random forest, AdaBoost, and gradient boosting. The results indicate that compared to river sand concrete, C30 and C40 concrete prepared with limestone and diabase manufactured sand has 20% higher abrasion resistance due to the presence of stone powder and higher roughness and solidity. Within the range of 0.40 to 0.44, a lower sand ratio leads to higher abrasion resistance. For concrete prepared with manufactured sand containing 5% to 11% stone powder, the best abrasion resistance can be attained at a stone powder content of 9%, and microscopic analysis suggests the highest concrete density at this level. According to grey system theory, the influence of each affecting factor on the abrasion resistance follows the order: sand ratio > crushing value > roughness > compressive strength > stone powder content > 0.6. Compared to gradient boosting, random forest, and AdaBoost models, the XGBoost model adopted in this study showed relatively higher R2 and lower RMSE in both the training and testing sets, which proved its higher accuracy in predicting the abrasion loss of manufactured sand concrete. The machine learning models offer some guidance for predicting and enhancing the abrasion resistance of manufactured sand concrete in practical engineering.