Salmon Prices Research Articles

The role of news sentiment in salmon price prediction using deep learning

This paper employs deep learning models and sentiment analysis to predict salmon spot prices. Our data includes historical price data and sentiment scores from 2018 to 2022. We extract sentiment scores from salmon-related news headlines by using FinBERT and TextBlob. We begin with price prediction using only historical price data and then introduce sentiment scores to improve the prediction accuracy of deep learning models. We find that the prediction performance of deep learning models outperforms traditional prediction methods in the salmon market. Our primary hybrid CNN-LSTM model outperforms other deep learning models and traditional models. Additionally, deep learning models incorporating sentiment scores exhibit reduced prediction errors. Our findings confirm the value of sentiment information in improving forecasting performance. These findings highlight the effectiveness and robustness of our CNN-LSTM model combined with sentiment analysis for price prediction in the salmon market.

Assessing Consumer Implications of Reduced Salmon Supply and Environmental Impact in North America

This study investigates the impact of the Canadian government’s decision to reduce the supply of farm-raised salmon in British Columbia (BC) on domestic prices, the level of imports, and the environment. By drawing upon data from diverse sources, this study employs the SARIMAX model to forecast future trends in salmon prices up to 2026. The forecasted results reveal that retail salmon prices will exhibit greater unpredictability and a predicted price increase of over CAD 30 per kilogram by 2026. In addition, increased consumption of imported salmon due to BC farm closure is expected to contribute to heightened carbon emissions and result in job losses within rural and indigenous communities. In short, BC salmon farm closure carries profound consequences for both the environment and market dynamics.

Cross-hedging wild salmon prices

A number of studies have documented that there is a global market for salmon, in which wild and farmed salmon have a common price determination process. Recent studies report that Norwegian farmed salmon spot prices are also highly correlated with the Fish Pool salmon future contract price, indicating that the futures market can be an important risk management tool, as producers and buyers can hedge price risk. Here, we investigate whether the wild salmon prices can be cross-hedged against the Fish Pool salmon future contract, by testing whether the two prices are correlated.. If so, the Fish Pool future contracts can be used as a risk management tool for fishers and buyers of wild salmon. We find that this is the case, providing an additional link between wild and farmed salmon specifically, and between fisheries and aquaculture generally.

The impact of parasitic sea lice on harvest quantities and sizes of farmed salmon

Sec lice infections are recognized as a primary challenge for both salmon farming and adjacent stocks of wild salmon and sea trout, triggering strict regulations at farm sites and in larger coastal production areas. In 2017 the Norwegian government implemented the Traffic Light System (TLS), where green, yellow, and red lights imply that salmon farmers can raise, maintain, or must reduce production quantities depending on estimated sea lice-induced mortality of wild salmonids. Past research has explored the impacts of sea lice on the growth rate of salmon, indicating a possible link between sea lice numbers and harvest practices. This study evaluates the impact of sea lice on salmon farmers' harvest behavior focusing on production quantities and fish sizes while controlling for market prices of salmon and fish meal. We also investigate whether and to what extent the TLS implementation affects harvest behavior. Our empirical results indicate that farmers tend to harvest marginally faster in response to increasing levels of sea lice and slower during delousing operations. The implementation of the TLS strengthened the negative impacts of delousing operations on harvest quantities. Fish sizes at harvest are negatively associated with sea lice levels and delousing operations, regardless of the implementation of the TLS. Control variables, such as seawater temperature, salmon prices, and fish meal prices, also influence harvest quantities and fish sizes.

Hedging Salmon Price Risk Based on Fuzzy Copula-GMM Model

Copula method can explain the dependent function or connection function which connects the joint distribution and the univariate marginal distribution. Therefore, copula has recently become a most significant important tool in the financial field of risk management, portfolio allocation, and derivative asset pricing. However, it leads to a possibilistic uncertainty in estimating the parameters of copulas because of insufficient historical data, imprecise parameter estimation, and uncertain knowledge of future prices. This paper proposes a fuzzy copula model via Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence to model the fuzzy relations, and further to investigate the hedging issues of salmon futures. We use a new framework of hedging under fuzzy circumstances, consisting of innovative marginal distributions and fuzzy intervals. By synergizing fuzzy copula and simulations, we use the fuzzy copula-GMM to obtain the hedge ratios of salmon futures. The empirical results show that, compared with traditional probabilistic methods, the fuzzy copula-GMM hedges the salmon spot risk measured by variance more successfully.

Consumer behavior in choosing microplastic contaminated seafood across different countries: The role of cultural and attitudinal factors

Microplastics are polluting the oceans worldwide and being stored in popular seafood species. Although there is uncertainty about human health impacts from consuming such seafood, such uncertainty doesn’t limit consumer concern. Economic studies regarding these new pollutants are seriously lacking, although environmental research is becoming more common. One of the goals of this study is to fill this gap, and meanwhile we explore that culture, attitudinal factors, and willingness-to-pay (WTP) elicitation formats may be key determinants in consumer actions. Surveys were conducted in three countries that vary in their seafood consumption habits, environmental attitudes, and culture. The results show that while previous knowledge of microplastics differs widely, when presented with microplastic information, about 90% of the respondents in all countries viewed microplastics as harmful. Mean own WTP for microplastic safer salmon was 162%, 222%, and 150% above the usual price of salmon in the US, China, and Korea, respectively. While there exists significant differences in WTP across examined nations, commonalities exist. Namely, individuals with a peer-like-oneself outlook and collectivistic values displayed significantly higher WTP for microplastic safer salmon. Promoting an equal view of peers and emphasizing the group can lead to higher WTP for less microplastic contaminated food. Policies in educating the public for these new pollutants, supporting the seafood industry to help clean up waters near the seashore, and partnering with consumers in funding the pro-environmental behavior are called for.

The welfare impacts of Covid-19 on the U.S. salmon sector

ABSTRACT This research estimates the effects of COVID-19 on the U.S. supply and demand for salmon over two distinct periods. The first period reflects the first year (2020) since the COVID-19 outbreak, and the second period covers the outbreak’s second year (2021). The effects of COVID-19 on salmon prices, domestic production, and imports are analysed through graphics, elasticities, and spatial welfare economics derived from the equilibrium displacement model of the U.S. salmon market. In the first year, COVID-19 caused a reduction in domestic demand. As a result, U.S. salmon producers and consumers lost $302 million. Consumer loss accounts for 87% of this value. In 2021, however, domestic consumption recovered, with a positive effect of $447 million on consumers, outweighing the negative impact from 2020. Together, the domestic producers and consumers gained approximately $512 million. The net market gain (a combination of the first- and second-year effects) was $210 million. These results are subject to the magnitudes of change in demand and supply due to COVID-19 and transportation costs.

Price relationships along the Norwegian salmon value chains: A comparative study of the leading consumption market in France and the largest processing industry in Poland

This study investigates price relationships along the Norwegian salmon value chains in France, the EU’s leading consumption market for salmon, and Poland, the EU’s largest “processing hub.” Using a vector error correction model framework, our results indicate that the salmon price determination is a supplier-driven process, with the export prices in Norway influencing prices in France and Poland, but not vice versa. Results also suggest that price linkages are strong between the export market in Norway and the retail market in France and the processing industry in Poland; however, the Polish retail sector is separated from markets at the upstream level, while price discovery at the French wholesale market is dominated by the retail market. Our findings imply that the evolved market structures lead to efficiently functioning retail markets in France and wholesale markets in Poland, but put the French wholesale and Polish retail markets at a disadvantage.

Estimating Pricing Rigidities in Bilateral Transactions Markets

Many price indices are constructed using bilateral transaction prices. This paper shows how the time series behavior of cross‐sectional price moments can reveal useful information about pricing behavior in bilateral transactions markets. Inference is formalized in a microlevel price determination model that allows for rigid pricing at the level of individual buyer/seller transactions as well as asymmetries in bargaining power. The model is used to estimate pricing rigidities in Norwegian salmon export transactions. Results suggest a high rate of price revisions and an informative salmon price index. The moments suggest price revisions are conducted at fixed time intervals consistent with optimal price revisions under costly information and that price revisions are more likely when transaction prices are below the reference price in the market.

Estimating Salmon Price Rise Due to the Increased Presence of Lice Caused by Global Warming: A Petri Net Based Approach

Estimating Salmon Price Rise Due to the Increased Presence of Lice Caused by Global Warming: A Petri Net Based Approach

Salmon Stock Market Prices Revealing Salmon Price Information

A representative and unbiased fish price index is an important tool to measure price risk, as well as for production and marketing management. This paper investigates the relationship between one of the primary price indices of farmed salmon, the Fish Pool Index, and the stock prices of major publicly traded salmon companies. We document that stock prices reflect salmon price information earlier than the Fish Pool Index. Furthermore, this effect is shown to be greater for larger companies. This identifies a possible source of bias in the salmon futures pricing design that relies on the index, which can negatively affect the perceived unbiasedness of contracting. The results also point to potential company-size effects on salmon pricing.

Demand systems and frequency of purchase models

ABSTRACT Understanding the frequencies of purchase and the average purchased quantities is important for marketing strategies such as the loss-leader pricing strategy. We develop a framework for analysing a demand system incorporating both these dimensions and show how the results can be used to formulate profitable marketing strategies for large food retailers. In our microeconomic model, total purchases are determined by two demand systems; one for frequencies and one for average quantities purchased conditional on positive purchase frequencies. An econometric model was developed to estimate the two systems by a Bayesian estimation method, which allows for an unrestricted covariance structure within each system. We estimated the systems using French scanner data for purchases of fresh salmon, fresh white fish and other fresh fish. The own-price elasticities for total quantities purchased were very similar in magnitude, whereas the own-price elasticities for purchase frequencies and average quantities purchased varied more. This variation can be used to determine good loss-leader products for a large retailer. In our case, it involves lowering the price of salmon and increasing the price of white fish.

Modeling the return distribution of salmon farming companies: A quantile regression approach

As the companies have grown larger, the salmon farming industry has received increased attention from investors, financial analysts and other representatives of the financial community. Still, little is known about the risk and return characteristics of salmon farming companies’ shares. This paper approaches this topic by applying quantile regression to investigate the relationship between risk factors and monthly stock price returns over the entire return distribution at both industry and firm level. The results show that the overall market return, changes in the salmon price and the lagged returns for the major company in the industry have a positive impact on company stock price returns. The risk factor sensitivities are quite stable across quantiles at industry-level, there are substantial differences at the firm level, but formal testing cannot reject the hypothesis that the quantiles are equal. This implies that the relationship between risk factors and stock returns may vary under different return levels reflected in the salmon price cycles. We show how the results can be implemented and applied in a Value-at-Risk analysis.

The Weak Sustainability of the Salmon Feed Transition in Norway – A Bioeconomic Case Study

This paper investigates transition pathways using an example from the bioeconomy: salmon farming and feed development in Norway. With a Multi-Level Perspective (MLP), the analysis show how a crucial biological input factor, feed, was gradually developed and innovated through interactions among technologies, institutions, and interpretations of landscape (external) pressures, with the industry’s ambitions of becoming more sustainable. The case history presents salmon farming as an example of an incremental transformation with gradual reorientations. Aquaculture developed from a niche innovation in the agricultural sector in the 1960s into a sociotechnical regime of its own. The shift from wet feed to dry, extruded feed was a crucial technological enabler. At the start of the 1990s, strong exogenous changes, including an economic crisis of overproduction and declines in salmon prices, led to extensive institutional changes. Shifts in ownership and the introduction of feed quotas brought a substitution pathway, whereby salmon farming became a national economic project. As production recovered, however, overfishing for feed became a concern. From the late 1990s on, the sociotechnical regime followed a reconfiguration pathway with the innovation of soy as a feed input. Over time, using vegetarian salmon feed has had unintended consequences, particularly environmental and social problems related to soy production. This case exhibits a shift in transition pathways and in interpretations of sustainability. Neither technologies nor transitions in themselves are sustainable; institutions and actors are unable to create sustainable alternatives. Together, however, they have managed to make the fish farming industry take heed to different sustainability concerns over time. Yet, the transition to soy-based salmon feed demonstrates only a weak sustainability and with a main focus on economic sustainability. This finding is line with the critique of the bioeconomy agenda for paying insufficient attention to environmental sustainability and for failing to challenge predominant structures in society.

The influence of quality characteristics of aquatic products on its price determination in China-A case of salmon products in supermarkets of Shanghai

The relationship between salmon prices and attributes were explored using the samples collected in supermarkets in Shanghai, China. The results showed that the price of the salmon did not have a significant relationship with the depth of orange color of salmon, unlike the results of stated preferences of western consumers in the previous studies. Whereas, smoked products had a positive relationship with price in the linear model form, and as the main importing country, Norway has the strongest positive relationship with price. In China salmon demand is expected to increase in future, salmon attributes highly appreciated in the market are different from western countries and salmon exporters need to recognize China as a special market for effective market.

The determinants of the price-earnings ratio in the Norwegian aquaculture industry

This research aims to fill the gap in the existing literature on valuation of aquaculture firms by investigating factors explaining their relative valuations. Employing a random effects model, we show that return on equity is an important determinant of price-earnings ratios, and is negatively related to the ratio. The cyclical pattern of profitability in the industry can serve as an explanation as higher profitability today indicates lower future profitability, which results in lower price- earnings ratios. Consistent with dividend-signaling theory, payout ratio is positively related to price-earnings in the industry. Expected returns, currency fluctuations, and changes in salmon price, do not appear to have any effect on the price-earnings ratio.

Pricing efficiency across destination markets for Norwegian salmon exports

This paper investigates how pricing efficiency of Norwegian salmon exports varies across destination market characteristics. Efficiency is defined as the rate at which individual transaction prices adjust to common market information, and is estimated by dynamic fixed effects panel models with parameters conditional on trade attributes using micro-level trade data. Our results show that contract type (Incoterms) used in transactions can be used to segment the Norwegian export markets into three types: (1) high-value trade to large distant markets, (2) medium-value trade to close high-income markets, and (3) lower-value large bulk trades to lower-income close markets. We find that pricing efficiency is lowest for committed trades over long distance using planes, and highest for less committed large bulk trades to close markets. Despite significant heterogeneity, the majority of salmon price variation (around ¾) is common, providing a clear justification for the representativeness of a salmon price index.

Objectives and Effectiveness of Brand Protection Systems for Regional Brands

Based on a field survey of 12 products, this study reveals the objectives and effectiveness of the Geographical Indication Protection System (GI) and Regional Collective Trademarks, which promote regional branding of agricultural products. We evaluate the effectiveness of both systems from the viewpoints of “constructing a production management system,” “controlling imitations,” “expanding awareness,” “rising price,” and “expanding production scale.” Moreover, we examine the effectiveness of “rising price” for Tsurajima Gobou and Miyagi Salmon using the Price Premium Method.The main results are as follows. First, the field survey reveals that GI-specific rules are useful. The government uses these rules to regulate imitation, and organizations that do not have corporate status can register their products under the GI system. Second, the prices of many agricultural brands remain unchanged after registration with brand protection systems. After registration, due to their strict production management systems or positive appeal to wholesalers, those prices are raised. Moreover, we confirmed that the price of Tsurajima Gobou and Miyagi Salmon are raised after registration using the Price Premium Method.

The Case and Cause of Salmon Price Volatility

AbstractSalmon price volatility has more than doubled over the last 10 years, and is now higher than many comparable commodities. This constitutes a challenge for the markets and consumers that sal...

An Analysis of the Impact of FTA Tariff Elimination on the Export Price of Norwegian Fresh and Chilled Salmon to Korea

An Analysis of the Impact of FTA Tariff Elimination on the Export Price of Norwegian Fresh and Chilled Salmon to Korea