Safety Risk Index Research Articles

Tank pool fire domino effect prevention by inherently safer layout planning: A techno-economic analytical index

Tank pool fire domino effects, represented by their capacities of accident consequence escalation and extensive damages, present substantial safety challenges within chemical storage systems. In this work, the inherent safety concept is introduced to proactively address these challenges while ensuring cost-effectiveness. Accordingly, a dedicated novel metric called Inherent Safety & Economic Risk Index (IS&ERI) is proposed to make safety and cost trade-offs for indicating the risk levels of various tank farm layout options. To develop the IS&ERI, the Dow's loss estimate procedure is adapted for representing the economic implications, and the Bayesian Networks are employed for indicating the failure probabilities of target units considering the synergistic effects of multiple pool fires. Two improved graph theory metrics are presented to determine the root nodes of the Bayesian Networks. For demonstrating the proposed IS&ERI, a case study is conducted and the results show that the IS&ERI of 4 tank farm layout options are 0.2991, 0.3120, 0.3525, and 0.2285, implying that Option 4 is the best layout with the lowest potential loss in case of the pool fire domino effects. As the key research contribution, the IS&ERI is presented and it can be used as a useful tool to compare and select the best tank farm layout option to eliminate or significantly reduce the knock-on effects of tank pool fires at their sources.

Assessment of the transferability of European road safety inspection procedures and risk index model to Egypt

Road safety is considered a worldwide issue, especially in developing countries where road fatalities are considered the top cause of death among youth. Generally, three main factors impact road safety including driver, vehicle, and road environment. Statistics show that driver behavior is the major contributory factor to crashes (65%); however, other factors may lead to higher severity crashes such as deteriorated infrastructure, unforgiving roadside design, etc. In this regard, extensive research work has been performed to analyze these crash-contributing factors and propose safety measures. For instance, in North America, researchers developed the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) which provides crash prediction models (CPM) and safety performance functions (SPFs) used in implementing effective safety measures. In the European Union (EU), crash data is complementary to road safety inspections as tools for the safety management of the road network in operation.This research investigates the potential of transferring the European experience, namely the Identification of Hazard Location (IASP) procedures, to Egypt. The analysis shows not only a significant similarity in the safety levels of infrastructure between Egypt and Italy but also in speed behavior. The transferability of the EU IASP procedure is validated by comparing the output of the Risk Index (RI) measure as a surrogate measure of safety with the expected crash frequency resulting from HSM’s SPFs. The comparison is assessed using Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. This process is applied to a case study that examines a 6-km segment of a two-lane, two-way rural road connecting Faraskour and El Mansoura in Egypt, serving as an example of a hazardous rural road in Egypt. The results indicate that the relation between the RI outputs and the expected crash frequency at the majority of segments of the road section is significant based on Spearman’s rank correlation factor value of 0.75. Few limitations have been identified and presented in the study including the effect of access located on curves or hidden in vegetated areas.

Development of a novel Electrical Industry Safety Risk Index (EISRI) in the electricity power distribution industry based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP)

Many workers are exposed to electrical energy during the fulfillment of their tasks. It is necessary to identify the potential risk factors for electrical damages. The present study aimed to develop a novel Electrical Industry Safety Risk Index (EISRI) in the electricity power distribution industry based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP). In this study several different safety risk assessment methods were analyzed. Then, common activities in the electricity distribution industry were classified into ten occupational groups. To identify the general structure of risk assessment and determine three main components, including personal, environmental, and organizational a three-stage Delphi study was conducted with the participation of 30 experts. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process approach was used to weight the components and parameters in each job group. Finally, the results of the EISRI were compared with the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) method. The most effective component in determining the risk level was the personal component (PC), with a 0.537 weighted average. Cronbach's alpha values for each of the personal, environmental, and organizational components and the entire model were 0.90, 0.85, 0.82, and 0.86, respectively, and model reliability was confirmed. The results obtained from the EISRI method were compared with the FMEA method, the results of both methods were very close to each other (p < 0.05). The results of this study revealed that the highest weighted average was related to the personal component due to the high impact of the human factors in carrying out activities in various occupations. The EISRI can be applied as a substitute for general risk assessment methods due to the suitability of this method with the nature of activities in this industry. The present technique can be a practical step toward developing suitable risk management algorithm.

Risk Assessment Model and Sensitivity Analysis of Ordinary Arterial Highways Based on RSR–CRITIC–LVSSM–EFAST

In this paper, in order to evaluate the traffic safety status of ordinary arterial highways, identify the sources of safety risks, and formulate safety development countermeasures for arterial highways to reduce accident risks, a combination method involving rank-sum ratio (RSR), criteria importance though intercriteria correlation (CRITIC), and least squares support vector machine (LVSSM) is adopted. The traffic safety risk index system and risk assessment model of ordinary arterial highways with two dimensions of risk severity and accident severity are established. Based on the global sensitivity analysis of the extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (EFAST), the resulting risk assessment model for ordinary arterial highways is proposed. Combined with the current traffic safety situation of ordinary arterial highways in Weinan City, Shaanxi Province, China, data collection and analyses were carried out from the perspectives of traffic operation status, personnel facilities management, road environment characteristics, and accident occurrence patterns. The results show that the risk level of ordinary arterial highways can be obviously divided into warning areas, control areas, and prompt areas. The proportion of roads through villages and the number of deceleration facilities belong to the highly sensitive indicators of the S107 safety risk, which need to be emphatically investigated. This analysis method based is on the RCLE (RSR-CRITIC-LVSSM-EFAST) risk assessment model and has high operability and adaptability. It can be adaptively divided according to the requirements of risk-level differentiation, and the road risk classification can be displayed more intuitively, which is conducive to formulating targeted improvement measures for arterial highway safety and ensuring the safe and orderly operation of arterial highway traffic.

Study on the Mechanism and Chain Generation Relationship of Geological Disaster Secondary Coal Mine Accidents

Geological disasters induce coal mine accidents, which usually cause casualties and large economic losses in coal mines. However, the chain relationship and disaster mechanisms of geological disasters secondary coal mine accidents are still unclear, and the research on risk assessment methods of geological disasters induced coal mine accidents is relatively scarce. Based on investigating typical cases of secondary coal mine accidents caused by different types of geological disasters, this paper analyzed and studied the disaster-causing factors and chain generation relationship of geological disaster secondary coal mine accidents and studied the disaster-causing mechanism of secondary coal mine accidents caused by geological disasters. On the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of geological disaster secondary coal mine accidents, the risk index system of geological disaster secondary coal mine accidents was constructed, the risk grade assessment method was studied. The risk assessment model of geological disaster secondary coal mine accidents was constructed, and the weight of each index in the assessment system was determined by using the analytic hierarchy process, and the normalized treatment was carried out. According to the safety risk index of geological disaster secondary coal mine accidents, the grade division was carried out to guide the targeted prevention and control measures.

Safety risk focused analysis of V2V communication especially considering cyberattack sensitive network performance and vehicle dynamics factors

Future transportation is expected to be connected, cooperative, and highly automated. Classic automated vehicular functions are developed based on safety principles primarily, but the reliability and cybersecurity of wireless communication processes pose new challenges for the automotive industry for connected vehicles, representing Connected, Cooperative and Automated Mobility (CCAM) systems as cyber-physical systems. Since CCAM system safety is significantly affected by network performance metrics, we need to consider communication factors such as end-to-end latency and packet delivery ratio during the safety evaluation of highly automated vehicle functions. This study presents a methodological framework which links the safety of the CCAM systems with the cyber security sensitive network performance metrics, as well as the vehicle dynamics factors in order to evaluate the effect of intentional or unintentional communication failures. Accordingly, we introduced a new approach to characterize the safety risk of specific Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) applications. Beyond this, severity of collision and message reception probability functions were introduced to further investigate the safety of the analyzed application. Finally, the values of the safety risk index for different warning intervals are summed, which suggest that the safety effect of specific function-related parameters could be and shall be represented during the function development process.

Digital Twin-Based Risk Control during Prefabricated Building Hoisting Operations.

Prefabricated buildings have advantages when it comes to environmental protection. However, the dynamics and complexity of building hoisting operations bring significant safety risks. Existing research on hoisting safety risk lacks a real-time information interaction mechanism and lacks scientific control decision-making tools based on considering the correlation between safety risks. Digital twin (DT) has the advantage of real-time interaction. This paper presents a safety risk control framework for controlling prefabricated building hoisting operations based on DT. In the case of considering the correlation of the safety risk index of hoisting, the safety risk hierarchy model of hoisting is defined in the process of building the DT model. The authors have established a Bayesian network model into the process of the integrated analysis of the digital twin mechanism model and monitoring data to realize the visualization of the decision analysis process of hoisting safety risk control. The key degree of the indirect inducement variable to direct inducement variable was calculated according to probability. The key factor leading to the occurrence of risk was found. The effectiveness of the hoisting safety risk control method is verified by a large, prefabricated building project. This method provides decision tools for hoisting safety risk control, assists in formulating effective control schemes, and improves the efficiency of information integration and sharing.

New quantitative risk prediction method of deepwater blowout: Case study of Macondo well accident

ABSTRACT Risk assessment is an effective technology to prevent blowout accidents in deepwater drilling. In this paper, a new quantitative risk assessment method named Barrier-Index Risk Prediction (BIRP) method is proposed, which is based on the reliability analysis of safety barriers and risk index evaluation to predict the deepwater blowout risk, and the case of Macondo well accident is used for calculation and analysis. According to BIRP method, the deepwater blowout accident is the common result of the occurrence of the initial event (well kick) and the failure of deepwater well control system (consists of safety barriers), while the states of well kick and well control system is determined by their Risk Influence Factors (RIF). The parameter of risk Increment Range (IR) is introduced to calculate the deepwater blowout risk. Finally, the Early Risk Warning Signal of deepwater blowout is established to describe the blowout risk of target deepwater well. The analysis of control factors confirms the inevitability of Macondo well accident and the accuracy of BIRP method. BIRP method focuses on the impact of RIFs, and establishes the Risk Index Evaluation System to assign indexes for them to quantify their risk status; it pays attention to the cooperation and trust between human and machines, and can predict the blowout risk status of the target deepwater well in each stage of deepwater drilling & completion engineering in real time. The BIRP method is suitable for the risk assessment of deepwater blowout and can provide theoretical guidance for its safety management.

Hazard identification and risk modeling on runway bird strikes at Sardar-e-Jangal International Airport of Iran

In every Airport, management options are facing different issues that may cause problems for aviation operations. Hazard identification and risk modeling must be the priority of airport management. Our research focused on runway safety, so that is very important, and it has various risks. Factors affecting flight safety include runway incursion, runway excursion, loss of control on the ground, bird strike, etc. Collision with wildlife is one of the most critical factors affecting the environment. Our study goal was that bird strikes pose a significant threat to aviation safety worldwide. This issue has two perspectives; first, wildlife significantly affects safety by increasing collision risk with airplanes. Second, the aviation operation causes danger for animals' lives and, consequently, to the environment. To carry out the research method, we attempt to present a historical background and record of wildlife collision and their environmental risks and simultaneous a way to identify these hazards and control their impacts. An essential part of the research results was introducing two hazard identification forms and wildlife risk modeling at Sardar-e-Jangal international airport of the Rasht City of Iran. The risks summarized in this case, from March to September 2019. The results of daily observations showed that a variety of birds always used the runway. Based on observation, safety risk modeling has been done. Most birds that collide with aircraft were of the Pheasants type, as a relatively large bird species. Given all of these factors, the severity of this hazard is catastrophic. So the safety risk index is 5A and unacceptable. Therefore, it is necessary to make specific arrangements, especially, Abundant rivers, canals, and waterways in the Airport, creating diverse vegetation that attracts small insects and animals (rodents, amphibians, etc.) needed food, shelter in vegetation. In addition, making the right environment for childbirth, high rainfall in the Medium to a long-term action plan for each according to local circumstances.

Optimization of a hydrogen supply chain network design under demand uncertainty by multi-objective genetic algorithms

Hydrogen is currently considered one of the most promising sustainable energy carriers for mobility applications. A model of the hydrogen supply chain (HSC) based on MILP formulation (mixed integer linear programming) in a multi-objective, multi-period formulation, implemented via the ε-constraint method to generate the Pareto front, was conducted in a previous work and applied to the Occitania region of France. Three objective functions have been considered, i.e., the levelized hydrogen cost, the global warming potential, and a safety risk index. However, the size of the problem mainly induced by the number of binary variables often leads to difficulties in problem solution. The first innovative part of this work explores the potential of genetic algorithms (GAs) via a variant of the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) to manage multi-objective formulation to produce compromise solutions automatically. The values of the objective functions obtained by the GAs in the mono-objective formulation exhibit the same order of magnitude as those obtained with MILP, and the multi-objective GA yields a Pareto front of better quality with well-distributed compromise solutions. The differences observed between the GA and the MILP approaches can be explained by way of managing the constraints and their different logics. The second innovative contribution is the modelling of demand uncertainty using fuzzy concepts for HSC design. The solutions are compared with the original crisp models based on either MILP or GA, giving more robustness to the proposed approach.

Evaluating the Effect of Roadway and Development Factors on the Rural Road Safety Risk Index

As roadway and development factors are identified as the most effective factors contributing to road traffic accidents, investigating these factors could lead to reducing the accident frequency rate. However, previous works focused on investigating the effect of roadway factors on the accident frequency rate using statistical analysis. The present study aimed to evaluate the effect of roadway and development factors on the accident frequency rate using ANOVA and Chi‐square tests on a rural road. Secondly, it aimed to develop a rural road safety risk index based on K‐means clustering and Gaussian models. The findings indicated that the operating speed and the differences between posted speed limits and the operating speed are the pivotal influencing factors on the accident frequency rate. Moreover, clustering analysis of the roadway and development factors on the two‐lane, two‐way road of Borujerd‐Khorramabad indicated six clusters which were identified as highly, relatively highly, moderately, relatively lowly, lowly risky, and not risky (safe) clusters. Regarding clusters, the accident frequency rate increased by decreasing the difference between the posted speed limits and the operating speed from the safe cluster. In addition, the risky index model based on the Gaussian model showed that the average reducing factor of accident frequency rate reached 0.99 by increasing per km/hr in the difference between the posted speed limits and the operating speed among low risky and safe clusters, while it was equal to 1.17 in risky and unsafe clusters. The comparison of the clusters revealed that accident occurrence probability in risky clusters was more than the ones in low risky or safe clusters. Therefore, the maximum and minimum values of the safety risk index were observed in the sixth and the third clusters, respectively.

Pattern of road traffic crash hot zones versus probable hot zones in Tunisia: A geospatial analysis

Focusing on how hot zones mapping can predict spatial patterns of crashes and how different mapping approaches compare can help to better inform their application in practice. This study examines the stability of the performance of two spatial autocorrelation measures on the basis of a Road Safety Risk Index (RSRI) through the comparison of the results for three regions (North-West, Center-East, and Center-West) and for three time periods (2002–2005, 2006–2009 and 2010–2013) in Tunisia. Our study differs from others in that it discusses the identification of probable hot zones and enhances the capability to examine a given highway by determining “dangerous probable lengths”, which aims to anticipate the traffic crashes in the future. The identified hot zones and probable hot zones exhibit different regional and temporal characteristics. There are clearly some outstanding spatial clusters of crashes covering specific locations. In both Northwest and Center-West regions, the majority of the identified hot zones and probable hot zones predominantly occur along mainly highways characterized by a dominant rural character. In the Center-East region, both hot zones and probable hot zones are mostly spread northeast and south-west more precisely in NH1 and NH2 where many urban activities are taking place. Spatial autocorrelation indices per region address the diversity within the regions and provide us with useful insights that can be translated into safety policies in Tunisia.

Assessment of Bridge Construction Safety Risk based on Improved Cloud Model

In order to solve the problems of fuzziness and randomness of assessment in bridge construction safety risk, the method of bridge construction safety risk assessment based on cloud model and uncertain analytic hierarchy process was put forward. Firstly, the characteristics of bridge construction were analyzed, and combining with engineering practice, the index system of construction safety risk assessment was established. Secondly,standard cloud model for bridge construction safety risk assessment was proposed through improved cloud model generation algorithm, and fuzzy value of index weight were converted into accurate value by uncertain analytic hierarchy process and set pair analysis method. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation cloud map was obtained through forward cloud generator based on the weight and safety evaluation information of each construction safety risk index, and compared with the evaluation grade standard cloud, so as to determine the safety risk grade of bridge construction. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method was verified through application of Wujiagang Yangtze river bridge in Yichang. The results show that the safety risk level is "IV grade" , and it is necessary to take some risk management measures to reduce the risk.

Road safety risk evaluation by means of improved entropy TOPSIS–RSR

Currently, comparisons of road safety performance at a national or sub-national level are worthy of being conducted; both in order to better understand one’s own situation in regards to road safety risk, and to find a meaningful reference (best-in-class) to learn lessons in terms of action program formulation. In this respect, the composite road safety performance index, which condenses the vast amount of road safety information in a comprehensive manner to produce a broad picture of road safety, is rapidly developing and becoming increasingly popular. Mainly due to the unsatisfactory explanation of more detailed aspects of crash causation and injury prevention when considering isolated indicators such as fatality rate. To this end, a means to measure the multi-dimensional concept of road safety in a scientific and systematic manner is urgently required; specifically a performance measuring technique that can combine the multilayer safety performance indicators (SPIs) into an overall index. In this study the improved entropy TOPSIS–RSR methodology is structured to conduct the road safety risk evaluation process from an overall perspective, based on a composite Road Safety Risk Index (RSRI). Using the results of clustering analysis as a relevant reference, a given set of provinces are grouped into several specific classes based on the RSRI score for case study. The contrasts in results prove to verify the robustness of the proposed model. Furthermore, they indicate the feasibility of applying this model as a valuable tool for road safety policymakers to decision-making activities and performance evaluation that contains multi-alternative and multi-criteria.

Safety Inspection and Management Tools for Low-Volume Road Network

On low-volume roads, where crash frequency is less than on high-volume roads, the role of procedures alternative to and complementing crash investigations becomes substantially more important; safety inspections as a proactive approach to road safety can be very effective for this class of roads. From the results of the European Union research report Identification of Hazard Location and Ranking of Measures to Improve Safety on Local Rural Roads, a safety risk index (SRI) was formulated as a measure of risk that uses the safety inspection as the primary source of information associated with design consistency assessment of the horizontal alignment. Moreover, because of its quantitative evaluation, the SRI can be used to determine benefits and a cost–benefit ratio of different intervention strategies. Then, since there are often situations in which the available budget will not be enough to undertake all the measures in the road network, an SRI-based optimization algorithm was defined for selecting projects to be included in the budget.

A multi-attribute Systemic Risk Index for comparing and prioritizing chemical industrial areas

Measures taken to decrease interdependent risks within chemical industrial areas should be based on quantitative data from a holistic (cluster-based) point of view. Therefore, this paper examines the typology of networks representing industrial areas to formulate recommendations to more effectively protect a chemical cluster against existing systemic risks. Chemical industrial areas are modeled as two distinct complex networks and are prioritized by computing two sub-indices with respect to existing systemic safety and security risks (using Domino Danger Units) and supply chain risks (using units from an ordinal expert scale). Subsequently, a Systemic Risk Index for the industrial area is determined employing the Borda algorithm, whereby the systemic risk index considers both a safety and security network risk index and a supply chain network risk index. The developed method allows decreasing systemic risks within chemical industrial areas from a holistic (inter-organizational and/or inter-cluster) perspective. An illustrative example is given.

Adverse Safety Events in Chronic Kidney Disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) lacks standardized patient safety indicators (PSIs); however, undetected safety events are likely to contribute to adverse outcomes in this disease. This study sought to determine the proportion of CKD patients who experience multiple potentially hazardous events from varied causes and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of "multiple hits." A sample of patients with CKD (n = 70,154) in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) were retrospectively examined for the occurrence of one or more safety events from a set of indicators defined a priori, including Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) PSIs, hypoglycemia, hyperkalemia, and dosing for selected medications not accounting for CKD. Approximately half of the cohort participants experienced one or two adverse safety events, whereas 7% had three or four (multiple) distinct events. Individuals with three or four of the predesignated safety events were more likely to be diabetic, non-Caucasian, have an estimated GFR (eGFR) < 30 ml/min/1.73 m(2), and be < or =65 yr of age. A "Safety Risk Index" was developed using these characteristics, and those subjects that had all four traits were 25 times as likely to have three or four adverse safety events versus those with none of the characteristics. Patients with CKD are at a high risk for safety events pertinent to this disease and a substantial number are subject to multiple events from a diverse set of safety indicators, which could have important consequences in disease outcomes.

Safety risk assessment on communication system based on satellite constellations with the analytic hierarchy process

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method in safety risk assessment on communication system based on satellite constellations through constructing safety risk index system.Design/methodology/approachAn empirical study using the AHP was carried out to find the relative weights of those assessment criterion and sub‐objectives of subsystem. Then the risk scores of 15 sub‐objectives and four subsystems were calculated applying the AHP method according to the assessment result of experts.FindingsAccording to the overall results from the estimation of experts the safety risk priority of net application is the highest and the safety risk priority of attack on physical equipment is the lowest. This explained that the possibility of a war in today's era, in which peace and development is the theme is very small, and risk prevention should focus more on the defense of network attacks from enemies.Practical implicationsThis paper provides a positive analysis of safety risk for a communication system based on satellite constellations and gives an opinion in accordance with the assessment result.Originality/valueAn AHP method was applied in the security risk assessment of communications systems on satellite constellation and the estimation of facing risk situation of the satellite communication system was presented according to the opinion of experts.

A New Safety Risk Index for Use in Petrochemical Planning

Risk analysis is being used to evaluate and manage the potential of unwanted events in the chemical processing industry. The risk in this study is the risk posed by chemical plant accidents and it is presented in a simple quantitative form. A safety risk index is formulated that represents the maximum number of people that might be affected if an accident occurred that caused the release of all the plant inventory of a chemical. The index has four terms: frequency of accidents; hazardous effect of the chemical; inventory of the chemical released; size of the plant. The overall unit of the index is expressed as the number of people affected per year from the plant operation and is formed in a particularly simple manner so as to be suitable for the comparison of safety risk within a model for planning the development of the petrochemical industry.

Development of a Road Safety Risk Index

The cornerstone of most safety management programs consists of a “collision-prone location” program, where significant collision history must exist and be identified before improvements are recommended. Often, these programs are solely dependent on collision records and thus program success is governed by the data quality. Unfortunately, in many jurisdictions in North America, the quantity and quality of collision data have been degrading for several years. This growing problem is jeopardizing the success and continuance of many road safety programs. To help mitigate this problem, it is believed that a subjective evaluation technique could be developed that does not rely on collision statistics and that could be used to identify and diagnose problematic areas. The development and application of a risk index used for road safety evaluation are described. The risk index is developed as a driver-based, subjective assessment of the potential road safety risks for in-service roadways. The objective of developing the safety risk index is to produce a technique to support road safety analysis that does not rely on deteriorating collision data. The road safety risk index was developed and tested to ensure consistency between observers in their subjective assessment of safety. In addition, the results from the risk index were compared with results from objectively derived road safety measures to evaluate the success of the road safety risk index. The comparison indicates that there is a statistically significant agreement between the results of the risk index and the objectively derived road safety measures.