Safe Haven Properties Research Articles

Is Bitcoin a hedge or safe-haven asset during the period of turmoil? Evidence from the currency, bond and stock markets

Market turmoil, such as that induced by Covid-19, tends to create huge pressure on financial markets, forcing decision-makers and investors to analyze risks and manage their investment portfolios. Taking the market turmoil induced by Covid-19 as an example, this study addresses the question of whether Bitcoin exhibits a hedging and safe haven property during the period of turmoil. We employ the TVP-VAR approach to investigate return spillovers and interconnectedness among Bitcoin and stock, money, and bond markets. In addition, we employ three portfolio techniques, including minimum variance portfolios, minimum correlation portfolios, and minimum connectedness portfolios, to evaluate the Sharpe ratios of the portfolios as well as the cumulative return before and during the epidemic. The results demonstrate that incorporating Bitcoin decreases total connectedness across markets, and Bitcoin provides stronger hedging and safe haven capabilities. Notably, the portfolio with minimum connectedness approach reaches the highest Sharpe ratio during the pandemic.

The advantages of CBOE credit VIXs for corporate bond investors in North America: A sectoral analysis

This paper examines the safe-haven role of the recently introduced CBOE credit VIXs for investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds, at both aggregate and sectoral levels. Using a time-varying quantile-based framework and daily data from June 5, 2014 to December 10, 2023, the safe-haven role of credit VIX is confirmed irrespective of bond sector. The safe-haven property of credit VIX is pronounced for high-yield bonds which embed a high credit risk-premium. This result stands when taking into account interest rate volatility, as measured by the MOVE index. A time-varying analysis shows the persistence of credit VIX as a safe-haven for all bond sectors after the COVID-19 pandemic and during a high US interest-rate regime. Corporate bond investors and traders can use these findings to refine their investment and trading decisions and offset credit risk during both normal and turbulent periods.

Wavelet quantile correlation between DeFi assets and banking stocks

We examine time frequency quantile correlation and portfolio benefits between decentralized finance (DeFi) assets and G7 banking stocks We employ wavelet quantile correlation to examine the correlation between DeFi and bank stocks. Notably, results reveal diversification benefits in the short to medium term and highlight DeFi assets' hedging and safe-haven properties, particularly against Japanese banking stocks. Further, bivariate portfolio analysis provides optimal allocation strategies. Our research offers new guidance for investors, portfolio managers, and regulators regarding the intersection of DeFi and traditional banking stocks.

Investing during a Fintech revolution: The hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin and Ethereum

Global financial markets have witnessed significant transformations in response to the worldwide spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, resulting in heightened risk and alterations in inter-market relationships. Both cryptocurrency markets and conventional equity markets have been influenced by these changes. This study aims to investigate the potential hedging and safe haven benefits of Bitcoin and Ethereum against risks in Asian emerging stock markets under various Covid-19 pandemic contexts including the onset of the pandemic, varying levels of panic, the extent of media attention, and sentiment analysis. Utilizing the dynamic correlation coefficients derived from the DCC-GARCH methodology, our analysis indicates that, both Bitcoin and Ethereum do not effectively serve as hedges or safe havens for major Asian emerging stock markets during the Covid-19 outbreak. These results remain robust during more extreme periods characterized by high panic, intense media attention, and negative sentiment. Nevertheless, an noteworthy exception is the case where Ethereum exhibits strong hedging properties specifically in the context of the Pakistan equity market. Recognizing these unique hedge and safe haven potential of cryptocurrencies can contribute to enhancing the effectiveness of investment strategies and risk management practices during periods of market turbulence.

Does Bitcoin Hedge Industry Credit Risk? A Comparison with Gold

Credit default swaps are considered indicators of default probability and used to measure credit risk in different sectors of the US industry. This study examines the effectiveness of hedging and safehaven options for US sectoral credit default swap indices, focusing on whether Bitcoin or gold can serve as effective assets for mitigating credit risk in US industries. The GARCH model with dummy variables and quantile regression are employed to estimate the hedging and safe-haven properties of Bitcoin and gold. The findings indicate that both Bitcoin and gold can be utilized as effective hedging and safe haven assets for US industry credit risk. Furthermore, the study highlights the superior hedging potential and safe-haven properties of Bitcoin compared to gold. Overall, the results suggest that investors and portfolio managers can effectively utilize Bitcoin and gold to protect against credit risk in different US sectors, regardless of market and economic conditions.

Should you buy gold stocks or paper gold?

We analyze which type of gold investment is better for investors by studying the determinants of returns on gold mining stocks (gold stocks) and gold exchange-traded commodities (gold ETCs) over the period from March 2012 to February 2024. We find that gold ETCs outperform gold stocks in both returns and risk, and respond significantly more positively to economic policy uncertainty (EPU), offering investors more favorable safe-haven properties. Gold stocks are also more sensitive to oil price increases than are gold ETCs, and their relative price performance is negatively related to both oil price changes and Gold VIX. We conclude that investing in gold stocks is less suitable for investors who buy gold as a safe-haven asset.

Financial integration and hedging and safe haven properties of metals for sovereign bonds

Previous research has shown that industrial metals outperform gold and other precious metals in terms of hedging and safe haven properties for sovereign bond holdings. We argue that the strength of these properties depends on how much the sovereign bond is globally integrated. We therefore model the hedging and safe haven properties of metals for sovereign bonds as moderated by how much bond returns are globally integrated. Our evidence from the sovereign bonds of 24 countries shows that industrial metals provide a stronger hedge and safe haven when sovereigns are more integrated, whereas precious metals do not. The inflation and exchange rates also affect the hedging properties of metals, but bond integration has the strongest economic effect. This evidence helps explain why metals are excellent hedging or safe haven assets for some sovereign bond investors but not for others.

Research on gold price prediction based on ARIMA model

Gold is one of the most prevalent currencies in the world and its price has a very strong influence in the global financial markets. Gold has safe-haven properties, which can have a significant impact on its demand and price, especially in times of social unrest or financial crisis. Now, the demand for gold by investors has increased dramatically. Therefore, being able to accurately predict the direction of the gold price can help investors to effectively develop investment strategies and risk management measures. The overall objective of this study is to forecast the price of gold futures for the next six months. In this study, the Kaggle website was searched to find the price of gold from 2020 to 2024 and finally the CLOSE price was chosen as the final predicted price. This paper uses the ARIMA model for gold price forecasting. By comparing the RSME size of each model, ARIMA (1, 1, 2) is finally chosen. From the prediction results the price of gold remains stable in the first half of the year and then increases significantly. From the results of the residual test, there is no autocorrelation, and then it is white noise.

Bitcoin market connectedness across political uncertainty

In this study, we examine the risk transmissions between the bitcoin market, political uncertainty, and various financial market uncertainty measures. We find that the returns and volatilities of Bitcoin are the receivers of the information from political uncertainty measures, such as the geopolitical risk index and the party conflict indices. These effects are strong during periods of financial stress. Further, the financial market uncertainty measures switch between the roles of transmitters and receivers over time. Our results further show that Bitcoin has hedging and safe-haven properties that mitigate political uncertainty. Our results provide a full understanding of how political uncertainty is transmitted to the Bitcoin market.

Comparing the hedge and safe haven properties of individual commodities for China and United States equity sectors

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to scrutinize the safe haven benefits of 13 individual commodities for the USA and Chinese equity sectors during the financial turmoil period. Therefore, sectoral investors in the USA and China could invest in those specific commodities that provide stable returns during the health crisis and financial turmoil periods.Design/methodology/approachThe daily data spans from February 1, 2015, to July 28, 2022. The present study applies several different approaches to analyzing the data set. The author apply the cross-quantilogram (C.Q) methodology to capture the lead-lag bivariate quantile interdependence between two stationary time series variables during the bearish, bullish and normal periods. Then the study used the hedging effectiveness (HE) and conditional diversification benefits (CDB) approaches to capture the hedging and diversification benefits of commodity classes and individual commodities.FindingsThe noteworthy findings of the quantilogram methodology reveal that livestock and agriculture commodities serve as better refuges as compared to the precious metals and energy index in both countries. On average, precious metals failed to serve as safe haven investments for the USA and Chinese equity market sectors. All energy commodities except soybean oil had strong comovements with China and the US equity sectors during bearish, bullish and normal periods. Lean hogs, fiddler cattle and live cattle are perfect hedging assets for both countries due to the presence of blue color at normal and bullish periods in all C.Q heat-maps. The HE table depicts that commodity indices and individual commodities failed to serve as hedging assets for the Chinese equity sectors. But commodities are semistrong hedging assets for the US equity sectors and the S&P 500 due to the average HE values being 0.7 and above. The CDB values depict that precious metals provide diversification benefits in both equity markets.Practical implicationsThe present study results have important implications for equity sector investors of the USA and China in suggesting particular commodity during the financial turmoil period. During the bearish market condition, risk averse equity sector investors can invest in livestock commodities and agriculture commodities, due to their relatively stable returns. In addition, policymakers can use the analysis insights to formulate policy tools and monitoring mechanisms, effectively mitigating the unfavorable effects arising from asymmetric dependence between commodities and equity sectors during the upper tail, middle and lower tail. Policymakers can suggest equity investors to invest in which commodity during extreme conditions.Originality/valueThe current study has the following points of originality. First, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the individual commodities’ roles as safe havens taken from all four major commodity classes. More importantly, it is also noticeable that the safe haven abilities of commodities are usually tested for the stock market, but the equity sectors are ignored. Therefore, the present study used both stock market and sectoral indices data.

Safety assessment of cryptocurrencies as risky assets during the COVID-19 pandemic

This study examines the safe-haven properties of cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 pandemic by exploring various cryptocurrency allocation strategies and their impact on downside risk compared to holding only the stock market index. Spanning from 2019 to 2021, the analysis includes seven cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, Maker, Monero, and NEO—and six stock market indexes—SP500, FTSE, CAC40, IBEX, AEX, and DJIM. The research introduces a portfolio optimization approach focused on mitigating significant losses during crises, employing Value at Risk (VaR), Modified Value at Risk (MVaR), and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) metrics across different portfolio compositions. Findings highlight several key insights: higher cryptocurrency allocations correlate with increased downside risk, with none of the studied cryptocurrencies acting as a safe haven for international equity indexes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Relative MVaR exceeds CVaR across most combinations, and Maker demonstrates the highest downside risk, while Bitcoin and Litecoin exhibit the lowest risk levels based on CVaR and MVaR, respectively. Integration of the FTSE index is associated with peak risk levels, whereas incorporating DJIM and AEX shows reduced risk exposure. The study contributes novel insights into cryptocurrency risk dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic, offering valuable implications for risk management strategies in investment portfolios.

Islamic and conventional stocks: Impact of Russia-Ukraine saga on global commodities

Purpose – This study intends to scrutinize the relationship between oil and gold prices on Indonesia’s Islamic stock market before and during the war between Russia and Ukraine, and compare the nature of sharia and conventional stock during the period of study.Methodology – This study uses daily price data of oil price, gold, Islamic index, and LQ45 index. The period spans from 2020 to 2022, which is split into two sub-periods: pre-war and during the war period. Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) was used for data analysis.Findings – This study provided three main findings. First, the Islamic index was found to be more exogenous than conventional stock, implying the safe haven properties of Islamic stock. Second, oil prices have a negative and significant impact on both conventional and Islamic stocks. However, Islamic stocks are less affected by oil price shocks than conventional stocks. Lastly, Gold is a safe haven asset for both Islamic and conventional stocks.Implications – This study is expected to be beneficial for Islamic investors making investment decisions, particularly in the war period, which is still ongoing and more specific for taking advantage of diversification opportunities.Originality – Despite a huge number of studies that investigate the Islamic stock – oil price nexus, this study uncovers the impact of the most recent geopolitical tension during the Russia-Ukraine War.

Gold characteristics as safe haven and assets diversification for Sharia stocks in Indonesia

Purpose This study aims to determine the role of gold as a safe haven, hedge and asset diversification for Shariah stock in conditions of extreme stock market declines. Design/methodology/approach Quantitative approach is used by applying the threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (TGARCH) model to capture bad or good news in the market condition and quantile regression method to obtain the extreme values of stock returns in several market conditions. The data used were the daily closing price of gold and the Jakarta Islamic Index from January 2011 to October 2022. Findings The average conditions show gold does not have a hedge property and only acts as an asset diversification. Second, gold has a substantial, safe haven property in every economic condition. However, the safe-haven property of gold seemed to weaken during the most extreme stock market decline. Thus, although gold appears as a safe haven and asset diversification, it remains a risky investment and only provides a minor role in the face of the extreme stock market period. Practical implications This research provides a discourse and literature for Islamic investors and investor managers to choose the right investment instrument in various economic conditions where gold has a function as diversification and safe haven in their asset portfolio under any other asset portfolio conditions which is also in line with modern portfolio theory. For policymakers, the study can be used as material for consideration in making policies related to the accessibility of gold as an investment instrument. Originality/value This study presents the originality by using the price of Antam gold as a proxy for gold investment during the latest research year data and focusing on case studies in Islamic capital market in Indonesia. Moreover, this research provides quantile regression that sharply discussion in various economics condition.

Safe haven properties of industrial stocks against ESG in the United States: Portfolio implication for sustainable investments

This study explores the safe haven role of industry sectors classified by the Global Industry Classification Standards (GICS) for global Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) stocks in the United States. Our study applies the novel cross-quantilogram and quantile time-frequency connectedness approach for daily time series data from November 2019 to October 2023. Our findings confirm that industry sectors, mainly financials, industrial, communication, information technology, energy, consumer staples, and consumer discretionary, are the safe haven avenues at down, normal, and up market conditions; however, these safe haven avenues vanish for the long-term investment horizon. We also explore the risk spillover patterns for the total time domain and the decomposed spillover level for the short- and long-term spillovers. Our connectedness finding shows that the net transmitters and net receiver patterns are similar for the extreme markets but dramatically change for the normal markets. Finally, based on the portfolio rebalancing strategy, the returns of our portfolio, comprised of industry sectors and the ESG index, outperform the overall market. Moreover, our portfolio yields lower negative returns and a higher Sharpe ratio when compared with the overall market returns. These findings confirm the benefits of diversification by reducing downside portfolio risk. This study is primarily relevant for socially responsible portfolio and risk management investors.

The impact of oil shocks on green, clean, and socially responsible markets

The study employs novel empirical approaches, namely wavelet quantile correlation (WQC) and cross-quantilogram analysis, to examine the interrelationship between green bonds (GB), clean energy (GCE), socially responsible stocks (ESG), and variants of oil shocks during the period spanning from June 28th, 2013 to June 1st, 2023. Empirical findings from the WQC highlight consistent diversification benefits of GB against oil shocks across various market conditions at both short and long timescales, while the hedge property is evident only in long timescales. GCE reveals safe haven and hedge property in response to oil shocks at short and long timescales, while diversifier property exists only for long timescales. ESG stocks show safe haven property during the turbulence period. Moreover, the hedge property of these stocks against oil shocks is noted over the medium- to long-term horizon. Results from the cross-quantilogram analysis reinforce the diversifier properties of GB and GCE, along with the safe haven characteristics of ESG across various timescales and market conditions. These findings offer valuable suggestions to investors interested in investing in sustainable stocks in the context of a volatile oil market.

ESG, clean energy, and petroleum futures markets: Asymmetric return connectedness and hedging effectiveness

This study investigates the asymmetric return connectedness and portfolio implications among environmental, social and governance (ESG) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), clean energy ETFs, and five petroleum futures markets from December 2016 to December 2022. To this end, it uses an asymmetric time-varying approach of connectedness and constructs portfolios using minimum variance portfolio (MVP), minimum correlation portfolio (MCP), and minimum connectedness portfolio (MCoP). The results show that negative return connectedness is stronger than positive ones across most of the sample period, especially around the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The dynamic of net connectedness between markets is altered by the pandemic. ESG ETFs are more connected to petroleum futures markets than clean energy ETFs. The connectedness is strong during the COVID-19 outbreak, which suggests the instability of the system of return connectedness during the global health crisis. The minimum connectedness portfolio approach reflects the asymmetric and non-asymmetric return connectedness more than other portfolio approaches. Notably, clean energy and ESG ETF exhibit a safe-haven property under both symmetry and asymmetry in return connectedness. The findings are insightful from investment and policy perspectives.

The effect of policy uncertainty on the volatility of bitcoin

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the effect of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR) and climate policy uncertainty (CPU) of USA on Bitcoin volatility from August 2010 to August 2022.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, the authors have adopted the empirical strategy of Yen and Cheng (2021), who modified volatility model of Wang and Yen (2019), and the authors use an OLS regression with Newey-West error term.FindingsThe results using OLS regression with Newey–West error term suggest that the cryptocurrency market could have hedge or safe-haven properties against EPU and geopolitical uncertainty. While the authors find that the CPU has a negative impact on the volatility of the bitcoin market. Hence, the authors expect climate and environmental changes, as well as indiscriminate energy consumption, to play a more important role in increasing Bitcoin price volatility, in the future.Originality/valueThis study has two implications. First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, the study is the first to extend the discussion on the effect of dimensions of uncertainty on the volatility of Bitcoin. Second, in contrast to previous studies, this study can be considered as the first to examine the role of climate change in predicting the volatility of bitcoin. This paper contributes to the literature on volatility forecasting of cryptocurrency in two ways. First, the authors discuss volatility forecasting of Bitcoin using the effects of three dimensions of uncertainty of USA (EPU, GPR and CPU). Second, based on the empirical results, the authors show that cryptocurrency can be a good hedging tool against EPU and GPR risk. But the cryptocurrency cannot be a hedging tool against CPU risk, especially with the high risks and climatic changes that threaten the environment.

Connectedness of cryptocurrency markets to crude oil and gold: an analysis of the effect of COVID-19 pandemic

The notion that investors shift to gold during economic market crises remains unverified for many cryptocurrency markets. This paper investigates the connectedness between the 10 most traded cryptocurrencies and gold as well as crude oil markets pre-COVID-19 and during COVID-19. Through the application of various statistical techniques, including cointegration tests, vector autoregressive models, vector error correction models, autoregressive distributed lag models, and Granger causality analyses, we explore the relationship between these markets and assess the safe-haven properties of gold and crude oil for cryptocurrencies. Our findings reveal that during the COVID-19 pandemic, gold is a strong safe-haven for Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Monero while demonstrating a weaker safe-haven potential for Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Chainlink, and Cardano. In contrast, gold only exhibits a strong safe-haven characteristic before the pandemic for Litecoin and Monero. Additionally, Brent crude oil emerges as a strong safe-haven for Bitcoin during COVID-19, while West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oils demonstrate weaker safe-haven properties for Ether, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, and Monero. Furthermore, the Granger causality analysis indicates that before the COVID-19 pandemic, the causal relationship predominantly flowed from gold and crude oil toward the cryptocurrency markets; however, during the COVID-19 period, the direction of causality shifted, with cryptocurrencies exerting influence on the gold and crude oil markets. These findings provide subtle implications for policymakers, hedge fund managers, and individual or institutional cryptocurrency investors. Our results highlight the need to adapt risk exposure strategies during financial turmoil, such as the crisis precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Testing bitcoin’s safe-haven property and the correlation between Bitcoin, gold, oil, stock markets, and Google trends

Since its public introduction in 2009, Bitcoin has grown to be the most well-known cryptocurrency worldwide. There is still debate as to whether Bitcoin may be used as a hedge against other assets. The purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between Bitcoin and conventional commodity markets such as gold, crude oil, stock markets, and investor interest (quantified via Google Trends). In addition, the paper also tests Bitcoin’s safe haven role compared to other commodity markets. The Vector Autoregression model using daily database collected during the period 2013–2021 is employed to investigate the relationship between Bitcoin and traditional commodity markets. The impulse response function is used to analyze Bitcoin price movements against economic shocks from gold, oil prices, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In addition, the value-at-risk (VaR) model is used to test Bitcoin’s safe-haven property compared to other conventional commodity markets. The research results show that Bitcoin has negative impacts on gold, crude oil prices, and the stock market. Besides, Bitcoin responds negatively to a sharp decline in investor interest. Furthermore, the results of the VaR model show that Bitcoin is the second most volatile and risky asset, only after the crude oil market, and much riskier than gold. This result proves that Bitcoin cannot yet be considered a safe-haven instrument. These findings have several implications for investors and policymakers to minimize the risks associated with this cryptocurrency. AcknowledgmentThe authors would like to send their sincere thanks to the Reviewers and Editorial Board of the Journal. Their valuable comments and helpful support helped improve the paper’s quality. No funding was granted for this study.

The tail risk safe haven property of China's energy futures against US market implied volatility

This paper analyses the tail risk contagion of US market implied volatility (USIV) on China's energy futures (CEF) markets, exploring how to utilize operations in the CEF to achieve a safe haven. Leveraging CEF characteristics to simultaneously take both long-/short-positions and engage in long-/short-run investment horizons, this paper defines eight different CEF safe haven attributes to counteract the tail risk of extreme increases in USIV. Using trading data from March 27, 2018, to October 30, 2023, the empirical results show that, first, in the analysis of the entire sample period, China's coking coal futures can serve as a weak safe haven, aiding long-position investors in mitigating the tail risks associated with US gold and stock market implied volatility. Coking coal futures also assist short-position investors in countering US stock market implied volatility tail risk. Second, in the sub-period analysis, the safe haven attributes of CEF exhibit strong heterogeneity and asymmetry across different periods. Finally, the time span during which CEF exhibits a particular safe haven attribute does not persist for an extended period.