SAARC Countries Research Articles

Contribution of livestock to CO2 emission in SAARC countries: an empirical analysis of panel data

This study investigates the contribution of livestock production to CO2 emissions in SAARC countries from 1990 to 2020 through an empirical analysis using panel data. The study included variables such as CO2 emissions and stocks, namely cattle, chickens, and goats. Data for the Maldives were excluded due to unavailability, and swine population data were also omitted for the same reason. Unit root tests revealed that the series were non-stationary at levels but became stationary after first differencing. The ARDL bounds test with a lag length of 3 (AIC = -7.951, SC = -7.060, HQ = -7.590) identified significant long-run relationships. Specifically, cattle (coefficient = 2.948, p-value = 0.000) and chickens (coefficient = 2.369, p-value = 0.000) were positively associated with CO2 emissions, while goats showed a negative association (coefficient = −5.594, p-value = 0.000). It was proven that there was a long-term equilibrium by cointegration tests like the Kao Residual cointegration test (ADF t-Statistic = -1.646, p-value = 0.049) and the Johansen Fisher panel cointegration test (Trace test and Max-Eigen test: p-value < 1%). Cross-sectional analysis revealed variability, with Afghanistan's cointegration coefficient at -0.325 (p-value = 0.000) and Bhutan's at 0.034 (p-value = 0.000). The results showed notable variability across countries, suggesting the need for tailored mitigation strategies. The study highlights the significant role of livestock in greenhouse gas emissions and calls for improved management and regional collaboration to mitigate environmental impacts in SAARC countries.

Evaluation of the potential power generation resources in SAARC region for sustainable energy trade

AbstractThis article presents a comprehensive review on the contemporary condition of electrical energy in the SAARC countries with particular focus on conventional as well as renewable resources. The region lies at the center of the Asia with a dense population where demand and supply gap has always been a challenging factor for the governments. In addition, the region has observed enormous industrial growth during past two and half decades whose sustainability is totally dependent upon the continuous supply of energy. A bulk of valuable literature has been published in recent years that addresses the challenges, infrastructure improvements margins and several schemes to mitigate the energy deficiency in the region but most of it focuses upon either generation or transmission. This article covers this gap and presents to‐the‐point data that can be used for future forecasting, cross‐border trade possibilities and indigenous energy generation for remote and islanded regions within and across the SAARC mainland. A detailed review on electrical power generation potential by exploiting the renewable energy resources (RERs), generation capacity, installed capacity, energy short fall and transmission and distribution (T&D) losses is presented for each SAARC country and the results are presented in forms of tables and graphs. It can be inferred from the data presented in this paper that the energy crisis of the SAARC region can be overcome by mutual trade among the land‐connected countries by transporting the electrical energy, generated through RERs, across the borders. The paper concludes that the region has enormous potential for renewable energy available in form of hydal, solar, wind and biomass that, if maturely harnessed, can only not fulfil the local demands of the region but also be exported to establish the framework of cross‐border energy trade in future for sustainability of industrial and domestic utilization.

Forecasting mortality and DALYs from air pollution in SAARC nations

This study investigates the projected impact of air pollution on mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) across SAARC countries. Utilizing Time Series and Machine Learning methodologies such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Neural Network, the research aims to accurately forecast the mortality and DALYs attributed to air pollution from 2020 to 2030. Statistical analyses reveal a consistent upward trend in deaths and DALYs during the forecasting period, primarily driven by Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution (APM) and Ambient Ozone Pollution (AOP). Comparing the predictive accuracy of the models, Neural Network outperformed other methods, as indicated by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values. Specifically, the study finds that deaths and DALYs due to Ambient Particulate Matter pollution are least prevalent in the Maldives, while India and Pakistan exhibit the highest rates, and deaths and DALYs due to Ambient Ozone pollution are lowest in the Maldives and highest in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Moreover, deaths and DALYs attributed to Household Air Pollution (HAP) are lowest in Pakistan and highest in Nepal. These findings underscore the urgent need for air pollution control measures and informed policymaking in SAARC countries to mitigate the escalating health burden associated with air pollution.

Stock Returns and Volatility: Comparative Investigation from SAARC Countries

This research article analyses the stock return and volatility of three selected SAARC countries (Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh), focusing on the role of natural resources in influencing market performance. This study aims to determine the robustness of the performance, considering the economic significance of these countries' natural resources. The daily data from the PSX 100 index (Pakistan Stock Exchange), BSE index (Bombay Stock Exchange), and DSE index (Dhaka Stock Exchange) for the years 2019 to 2021 has been obtained from their websites. The data is treated in MS Excel to compute the daily Geometric Returns for BSE, PSX, and DSE indices. Furthermore, the data were analyzed using the specialized package EViews for Time Series Graph, Descriptive Statistics, Unit Root Test, and GARCH Model. The findings of this research show that the BSE index has the highest return value of 6.78 percent compared with 4.56 percent and 3.75 percent for DSE and PSX, respectively. The Half-life model has been applied to calculate the volatility observed by the indices. The result shows that BSE is the most volatile and takes the highest time of 45 days to revert to its mean position, followed by PSX and DSE, which take 19 and 10 days, respectively. Therefore, investing in the BSE index is better for risk-lover investors. At the same time, DSE has the fastest mean reversion compared to the other two indices. Therefore, it is feasible for risk-averse investors.

Energy Security and Women’s Empowerment: A Generalized Method of Moments Approach from a Global Perspective

The importance of energy security is emphasized in Goal 7 of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda to guarantee that everyone has affordable, dependable, and contemporary energy access. In addition to transforming human life, whole economies, and even the planet, sustainable energy offers a chance for a better future. The absence of energy security impacts serious health problems, education, and household difficulties. Research on energy security has emphasized various angles worldwide. However, investigations of the impact of energy security on women’s empowerment are still scant. This study thus investigates the relationship between energy security and women’s empowerment (WE) in 167 countries from 2002 to 2021, as well as the influence of urbanization development levels on this nexus. Moreover, this study explores the variation in women’s empowerment between geographical regions by referencing the MENA, OECD, and SAARC countries. A two-step system GMM was used to achieve the objectives of this research. The findings show first that renewable energy availability has a significant effect on WE worldwide. Secondly, in terms of energy security, the variables total availability of natural resource rents and renewable energy both have a positive impact on women’s empowerment in the MENA, while in the OECD and SAARC countries, they have an indirect link with WE. Third, the integrating effect of total natural resource rents with urbanization significantly affects WE in all five models. Fourth, we used access to electricity to represent resource affordability. Unexpectedly, the results show its negative and significant association with WE. Fifth, in terms of energy security, both energy availability and affordability favor WE in OECD countries. Finally, the coefficient of integration of access to electricity and urbanization shows a positive and significant association with WE in the OECD, MENA, and SAARC regions. However, it is noteworthy to mention that access to electricity alone does not influence WE worldwide. Additionally, a series of tests confirm the robustness of the results. This research provides insight into the development and implications of energy security-related women’s empowerment policies.

Overview of climate change data on India and SAARC countries

Overview of climate change data on India and SAARC countries

Interplay of Foreign Direct Investment, Remittances, and Economic Growth: Insights from SAARC Countries

The current study focuses on finding and analyzing the nexus between remittances, foreign direct investment, and economic growth in SAARC countries. This study uses secondary balanced data of selected SAARC countries for the years 2000 to 2019. This study uses gross domestic product i.e., GDP, which serves as the proxy of economic growth, as the dependent variable. The core independent variables of this study include (FDI) foreign direct investment and remittances (RMTN). Additionally, gross capital formation (GCF) and carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) are the other two independent variables in this study. For the proxy for environmental degradation the study uses data of CO2 emissions. The data is collected from the world development indicators, WDI. The study focuses on how all the independent variables affect the growth of economy in selected SAARC countries which include Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. The study applies cross sectional dependence test, panel cointegration test, unit root tests, and PARDL (panel auto regressive distributed lag model), also called pooled mean group methodology, to obtain empirical estimates. The results of PARDL show that FDI, RMTN, and GCF are all positively and significantly related to GDP. This means that GDP or alternatively economic growth, is improving with rise in FDI, RMTN, and GCF in selected SAARC countries. The results show that CO2 emissions have a negative significant impact on GDP i.e., increase in pollution levels is harmful for the growth of the selected economies.

Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Remittances in SAARC Countries

This study explores the relationship between exchange rate volatility and foreign remittances on the economies of SAARC countries over the period 2000 to 2023. With the ongoing debate among policymakers and researchers on this subject, the study employs the Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) model to analyze data from eight SAARC nations. The variables considered include remittances, foreign reserves, trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), political stability, and GDP growth, sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI), while exchange rate volatility is calculated using the GARCH method. The analysis involves two models. In the first model, remittances serve as the dependent variable, with exchange rate volatility, GDP growth, trade, inflation, and political stability as independent variables. In the second model, exchange rate volatility is the dependent variable, with remittances, GDP growth, trade, inflation, foreign reserves, and FDI as the independent variables. The results indicate both long-run and short-run relationships between exchange rate volatility and foreign remittances in SAARC countries. The findings show that remittances are positively associated with GDP growth and inflation, while exchange rate volatility, trade, and political stability have negative relationships with remittances. Additionally, exchange rate volatility has a positive association with inflation, while GDP growth, remittances, trade, FDI, and foreign reserves exhibit negative associations with exchange rate volatility. Granger causality tests reveal complex bidirectional and unidirectional causal relationships among the variables. These insights offer valuable implications for policymakers aiming to manage exchange rate volatility and enhance remittance inflows in the SAARC region.

An Analysis of Foreign Capital Inflows, Institutional Quality and Economic Performance in SAARC Countries

This paper is interested in seeing and exploring the relationship between foreign capital inflows, the quality of domestic institutions, and economic performance. The paper focuses on SAARC economies and utilizes data from 1996-2020. Our results show that foreign aid and economic growth of SAARC countries were positive results from all four techniques we used in our study. For imports, we got positive results in pooled least squares, whereas we got a negative impact of imports on the economic growth of SAARC countries in the other three techniques. We got the negative and insignificant impact of FDI in pooled least squares and generalized least squares, whereas we got the positive and significant impact of FDI in two stages of least squares. We learned about the negative and significant effects of debt on the economic growth of SAARC countries through all four techniques we have used. Regarding remittances, we got mixed results. Regarding institutions, we got institutions' negative and considerable impact on the economic development of SAARC countries in all specifications. Our results have important policy implications for SAARC economies.

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows into SAARC Countries: Trend Analysis

The study examines the relationship between institutional quality and FDI inflows in SAARC nations from 1981 to 2020. It employs Simple Linear and Semi log linear regression to draw conclusions. The findings indicate that corruption, political stability, government effectiveness, and GDP per capita have a positive and statistically significant influence on FDI inflows. The Semi log linear regression results show that all estimates of government effectiveness, GDP per capita, and trade openness are positive and statistically significant. This research suggests that institutional quality is important for the growth of FDI inflows. As a result, policymakers should prioritize effective institutional reforms to create a favorable investment environment and attract FDI inflows in SAARC countries.

Enhancing environmental performance: evidence from SAARC Countries

ABSTRACT This paper examines the influence of population density, economic growth, and regulatory quality on the environmental performance of five SAARC countries from 2000 to 2020. To this end, fixed and random effects models are used. Quantitative data on socio-economic and environmental characteristics reveals notable differences across countries. The results show a significant positive and negative impact of the covariates economic growth and population density, respectively, on environmental performance. While the estimated coefficient of the regulatory quality variable was positive, it was statistically insignificant. The results also suggest a significant inter-country dependency and a significant change in environmental performance across countries over time. Based on the results, several strategic approaches are proposed at both individual and multi-country settings. Furthermore, we emphasize the roles of the government, international and regional agencies, private sector, and civil society organizations. Finally, possible extensions of the present paper are discussed.

THE TAXING DIVIDES: EXPLORING THE NEXUS BETWEEN INCOME INEQUALITY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND TAXATION

This paper investigates the impact of income inequality and economic growth on tax revenues within the context of six SAARC countries, using panel data from 1990 to 2021. By applying various econometric models, including Pooled Ordinary Least Squares (POLS), Fixed Effects (FE), Random Effects (RE), and Pooled Mean Group (PMG), the study evaluates the relationship between tax-to-GDP ratios and key variables like GDP, income inequality (GINI), economic freedom, and employment. Results from the Random Effects model indicate that income inequality negatively affects tax revenues, while GDP growth, economic freedom, and employment have positive and significant impacts. The PMG model further supports these findings, revealing long-term equilibrium relationships. This research contributes to understanding the economic determinants of tax buoyancy in developing countries, highlighting policy implications for balancing income redistribution and economic efficiency.

A Causal Analysis of Financial Development and Economic Growth

In terms of cause and effect, financial development and economic growth relationship has been a major empirical issue for researchers and policy makers. This study explores the causal linkages between financial development and economic growth catering for country specificity and structural shocks pertaining to different cross sections in SAARC and ASEAN countries by calling in the bootstrapping technique proposed by Konya (2006). We considered the panel estimation to allow for contemporaneous correlations and performed the Wald test for Granger Causality with country specific bootstrap critical values catering for structural breaks. Empirical investigation reveals the existence of both the demand and supply leading phenomena for the selected period of 1980-2019. The direction of causality is sensitive measures and proxies used for financial development.

Reimagining the role of community health workers in SAARC countries.

Following the Alma Ata declaration, SAARC countries have established their workforce of community health workers (CHWs) to address primary healthcare needs. Initially focused on maternal and child health, the countries now confront a changing healthcare landscape characterized by noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), mental health issues, and surgical conditions. These developments have led to the emergence of specialized CHWs tasked with managing NCDs and mental health concerns, prompting a reevaluation of the balance between specialization and maintaining a generalist approach. The effectiveness of CHWs during crises hinges on critical factors such as standardized training, opportunities for career advancement, and equitable compensation. This viewpoint makes a call to introduce a specialist category of CHW to align with evolving healthcare requirements in SAARC countries.

The Impact of Terrorism on International Trade: A Panel Study for SAARC Countries

This study investigates the impact of terrorism on international trade among SAARC countries over the period 1990 to 2022. the study used international trade as a dependent variable, while Terrorism, GDP, Exchange rate and Real-world GDP are independent variables. Before going toward cointegration tests, the study used unit root tests and concluded that some variables were stationary at the level while others were stationary at the level. Unit root test results suggested using the PMG-ARDL model to estimate the long and short-run impact among variables. GDP positively correlates with trade, suggesting that economic growth encourages trade activities; exchange rate fluctuations have mixed effects depending on the appreciation or depreciation of the currency; and real-world GDP changes have a positive spillover effect on trade within the SAARC region and a significant positive impact on terrorism. Government policymakers should consider the issues of terrorism, insecurity, and law to reduce investor skepticism and fully actualize the potential of their trade hosting.

Comparative Analysis of GDP Per Capita, Logistic Performance, and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: A Case of SAARC Countries

This study investigated the association between economic growth, environmental sustainability, and social development in SAARC countries. The study uses robust and balanced panel data from 2008 to 2021. The advanced econometric techniques used for empirical analyses, specifically Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). It provided valuable observations on the relationships between economic and environmental factors. The independent variable logistic infrastructure, gross capital formation, labour force participation rate, and carbon dioxide emission significantly affect our dependent variable growth rate The study results showed that logistic infrastructure positively affected our GDP per capita. Similarly, LAB and GCF also directly impacted your GDP per capita while CO2 negatively impacted the GDP per capita of the projected economies. These findings suggest that policymakers must adopt holistic approaches that prioritize sustainable development goals, mitigate environmental degradation, and promote inclusive economic growth to ensure a prosperous and resilient future for all.

Exploring the Influence of Financial Development, Institutional Quality and Trade Openness on Inclusive Growth in SAARC Countries

Better financial infrastructure, trade openness and quality of institutions are key to progress the economy. This paper investigates influence of financial development, institutional quality and trade openness on inclusive growth in SAARC countries during 1996 to 2020. The study applied different econometric techniques for data analysis such as panel unit root tests, Pedroni cointegration test, panel ARDL model and granger causality test. The results show that financial development, institutional quality and human capital are positively and significantly related to the inclusive growth while trade openness is negatively but insignificantly associated to the inclusive growth in SAARC countries. The causality analysis shows a unidirectional causality between EMP and IG, FD and inclusive growth, institutional quality and inclusive growth, human capital and inclusive growth while no causality is observed between TO and IG. Keeping in view the outcomes, it is suggested that financial development should be promoted, institutional quality should be improved and to curtail the negative impacts of trade on inclusive growth these countries should encourage the exports to improve their trade balance and inclusive growth.

Unveiling health dynamics: Exploring the impact of CO2 emissions, urbanization, and renewable energy on life expectancy and infant mortality in SAARC countries (1990–2022)

AbstractThis study examines the intensifying threat to public health caused by increased CO2 emissions from energy and modern urbanization. In this connection, we focused on SAARC countries from 1990 to 2022. The study explores the dynamic association among urbanization, CO2 emissions, renewable energy, and key health indicators, namely life expectancy and infant mortality. It offers nuanced insights by highlighting the requirement for sustainable policies to meet health challenges associated with CO2 emissions and urban development in SAARC economies. To achieve the study objectives, the authors utilized panel auto regressive distributed lag for assessing short‐term and long‐run effects, and the method of moments quantile regressions to check these effects across different quantiles. The empirical results underscore the positive impact of renewable energy, urbanization, GDP, and industrialization on life expectancy. Conversely, CO2 emissions exhibit a detrimental impact on life expectancy, leading towards numerous diseases in both the short and long term. Notably, in the case of infant mortality, the study discloses that renewable energy, urbanization, GDP, and industrialization negatively affect infant mortality, while CO2 emissions positively impact infant mortality in both short and long‐run scenarios. Fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares further fortified our findings, supporting the results derived from panel auto regressive distributed lag and method of moments quantile regressions. The study's policy implications highlight the imperative for governments and policymakers to prioritize renewable energy and sustainable urbanization, mitigating the adverse health effects of CO2 emissions from non‐renewable energy sources. The study's findings further endorse a strategic shift towards renewable energy sources, positioning them as substitutes for conventional forms such as fossil fuels. Additionally, the emphasis is on planned and sustainable urbanization, facilitating improved access to health facilities and overall public health.

Assessing the Impact of Rule of Law, External Debt, and Exchange Rate Volatility on Domestic Consumption in SAARC Countries

This paper investigates the relationship between rule of law, exchange rate volatility, external debt, and domestic consumption in SAARC countries from 1995 to 2022. Using a panel dataset, the study employs a random effects model to analyze the associations. Findings reveal that inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate, and rule of law positively link with domestic consumption, while external debt, interest rate, and exchange rate volatility exhibit negative associations. Granger causality analysis indicates that external debt granger causes exchange rate volatility, and there is bidirectional causality between domestic consumption and both external debt and exchange rate volatility. The study also suggests some policies to affect domestic consumption.

Analyzing the Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Financial Stability: Evidence from South Asian Economies

This research examines whether macroeconomic variables disturb the financial stability of SAARC countries in 1996-2022 using panel ARDL approach. We shape the financial stability as the dependent variable, and we have developed a PCA index of financial stability (principal component analysis). This study contains of macroeconomic models with a wide choice of possibly related variables for financial stability, using financial flows, financial openness, macroeconomic stability, exchange rate and economic growth on a sample of five countries between 1996 and 2022. Our experimental suggestion proposes that most of the macroeconomic variables have a positive impact on financial stability. Therefore, our outcomes support the view that the development of macro-economic policies and political programs should be part of financial improvement. All these variables may enhance the financial stability of the countries which are under consideration.