Resurgent Russia Research Articles

Why will China and Russia not form an alliance? The balance of beliefs in peacetime

Abstract The ongoing war in Ukraine has thrust China–Russia relations into the global spotlight, with both nations asserting their stance against forming a military alliance. This article introduces a novel ‘balance-of-beliefs’ framework, positing that the foundation of peacetime alliances lies in leaders' shared beliefs. Using operational code analysis, this study quantifies the philosophical and instrumental beliefs of leaders from the United States (Barack Obama), Australia (Tony Abbott), China (Xi Jinping) and Russia (Vladimir Putin) between 2013 and 2015, and includes additional comparison between Putin and Xi between 2016 and 2022. This research examines the essential role of aligned world-views on ‘the nature of the political universe’ (which we label a P-1 belief) and ‘the strategic approach to achieving political objectives’ (an I-1 belief). The findings reveal that such congruence is crucial for fostering like-minded alliances in peacetime, as evidenced by the US–Australia alliance. In contrast, the divergent P-1 beliefs of Xi and Putin hinder a Sino-Russian military alliance; yet, their aligned I-1 beliefs facilitate pragmatic cooperation on specific issues. This analysis underscores the need for US and European policy-makers to devise nuanced strategies in response to the evolving dynamics of a rising China and a resurgent Russia.

Armenian Media System Overview According to the Hallin and Mancini Model

An overview of the Armenian media system is presented from the perspective of media professionals. Interference with the media system by the political system is analysed and the health of the Armenian media system is explored in the context of its transition from a Soviet republic towards a liberal model. The international situation contextualises analysis (resurgence of Russia–West enmity and globalisation) as does Armenia’s troubled relationship with its neighbours: with Turkey due to the 1915 genocide and with Azerbaijan because of the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh. Relevant domestic affairs, such as the successful citizens’ mobilisation and the 2018 Velvet Revolution are also considered. The methodology used is based on in-depth interviews carried out in Yerevan (09/23) with 13 key informants; their answers are explored with content analysis using Hallin and Mancini’s dimensions. The study will serve to discuss how the media are used as tools of power and how the media system reproduces the political system (polarisation and individual ownership). We find that media is owned and/or controlled by political parties, and that the government controls public media but also part of the private sector through broadcasting licences and economic pressure. News media are not self-sustainable, thus, media economic dependence compromises its editorial independence, and very few media are independent. There is plurality, but highly polarised; there is no systematic censorship, but defamation fines reinforce journalists’ self-censorship; internet freedom is high but generates misinformation. Even so, there is professionalism, therefore there may yet be hope for the media if peace and the economy stabilise.

The Shifting Geopolitics

Geopolitics has now taken center stage in shaping the domestic and foreign policies of nation-states. This trend largely aligns with the principles of political realism, where states aim to survive in an anarchical international order by maximizing power and wealth while minimizing losses. In an era characterized by rapid ecological, economic, and technological changes, as well as uncertainty and conflicting dynamics in international politics, geopolitical narratives have captured the attention of statesmen, journalists, academics, policy analysts, and military strategists. The traditional version of geopolitics, which was characterized by determinism, expansionism, and aggression, has given way to a more nuanced understanding of where states make strategic choices in a multi-polar world. However, this shift has also witnessed a decline in multilateralism and the rise of nationalism, populism, and fundamentalism, which has weakened international regimes and global governance institutions. These developments are occurring at a time when many global issues, such as arms proliferation, pandemics, poverty, inflation, and climate change, require international cooperation. The global power shift from the Atlantic to Asia, particularly with the ascent of China as a geo-strategic rival to the USA with global influence in security, development, and civilization initiatives, as well as the growing Sino-Russian partnership, has created new geopolitical dynamics. India's neutral stance between a resurgent Russia and the USA, while being part of America's Indo-Pacific strategy, alongside rival strategies aimed at containing, deterring, and pushing back against China, has placed small states like Nepal in a challenging position. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, driven by the latter's interest in joining NATO and the EU, has reshaped bilateral relationships among major and minor states. This ongoing conflict shows no signs of resolution, further complicating global geopolitics. The emergence of the Eurasian geopolitical pole and the Atlantic solidarity, along with their contest for supremacy, are affecting global security, political and economic order, and the formation and dissolution of alliances among nation-states as they strive to rebalance their relationships.

Analysis Of Grand Strategy Of Russia: A Case Study Of Putin’s Regime

The article revolves around the debate of Russian Grand Strategy with special focus on the Putin’s era. By using empirical designs based on interpretive approach, the research claims that modern day Russia is greatly transmuted by the Putin’s grand strategy. The dynamic shift of the Russian strategy has triggered the debate of resurgence of Russia, therefore it has changed the narrative from reserved assertiveness towards aggression by Putinism greatly prevailed through the 4 terms of his rule. Unlike Gorbachev Putin’s Russia rose through the remnants of cold war towards the dominance over the world but the western actions diverge it towards aggression as the security threats posed by NATO’s eastward expansionism. Russia pursues the objective to reclaim and hold its influence on its near abroad through challenging western ideals and pursuance of strategic ends across wide range of means.

The Indo-US Strategic Nexus: Policy Options for Pakistan

The Indo-US strategic nexus is one of the most remarkable post-Cold War geostrategic developments. This study examines the major factors behind the Indo-US strategic nexus and reveals the key policy options for Pakistan. The objectives of the Indo-US strategic nexus are geared towards achieving their strategic and economic interests. However, the main effort is aimed at containing China's evolving global role. To achieve this goal, India and the US have signed various agreements on strategic, nuclear, technological and economic fronts and have agreed to further deepen their strategic nexus. The Indo-US strategic nexus has created some strategic and economic challenges for Pakistan and disturbed the balance of power in South Asia and beyond. Pakistan could respond prudently by reorienting its foreign policy in response to the Indo-US strategic partnership. Developing a stronger relationship with evolving China, a resurgent Russia and energy-rich Iran are some of the options for Pakistan to safeguard its strategic interests and overcome its energy crisis and economic stagnation. This study makes some key recommendations for the balance of power in South Asia by developing a strong relationship on geo-economic and geo-strategic grounds with China, Russia, Iran, Afghanistan, and the CARs.

Kievan Rus: A Tumultuous Journey Ended With War

Russia’s “Special Military Operation” against Ukraine on 24 February 2022 can be counted as the biggest ever war in Europe since World War II. The rationale of the operation, as Russian President Vladimir Putin asserts, is that Russia even could not stay safe, prosper and survive with a NATO-leaning Ukraine. Nevertheless, the present-day war is a culmination of several factors which have set the stage for a more bitter outcome between Russia and Ukraine soon. The paper attempts at analysing how the present-day Russia-Ukraine war is a culmination of conflicting claims and interests of the two countries-Russia and Ukraine, starting from Kievan Rus, and how the west dragged Moscow into a deadly war with Kyiv. In the entire gamut of analysis, Ukraine’s intertwined history and the Russian claims, NATO expansion, resurgent Russia, and oscillating Ukrainian domestic politics hinged on east-west leanings, all together have been taken into account to unfold the current crisis in a wider spectrum.

Russia Resurgent? Untangling the Role and Meaning of Moscow’s Proxies in West Africa and the Sahel

Growing international concern over Russia’s military and political resurgence in Africa and the possibility of creating a renewed Cold War has been rekindled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the outbreak of war in Europe in February 2022. Russia’s growing influence in Africa through the re-establishment of old ties and the creation of new ones has been perceived as a quest to re-establish the geopolitical gains that the Soviet Union achieved before its collapse in 1989. Increasing demand for Russian weaponry and equipment, support for unpopular, illegitimate, or unconstitutionally elected leaders, and the targeting and interest in mining concessions and natural resources are considered by the West to be a threat to democratic gains and stability in an already fragile continent. Several questions arise as a result of the deepfake propaganda around occurrences on the continent. How has Russia’s resurgence or reemergence manifested on the African continent? What instruments does Russia utilise to exert its influence in Africa? What are the potential opportunities and threats of Russian presence in West Africa and the Sahel? And how will other global actors be affected? This debate article seeks to examine a particular aspect of Russia’s resurgence on the African continent, namely, the presence of Russian proxies in West Africa and the Sahel. It examines the multiple dynamics created by their presence, the potential threats that their proliferation and activities generate in an already fragile sub-region, and how such activities, if unconstrained, can impose other potential dangers on the continent and the globe.

Internal Security: The Encroachment of the State Security on Global Liberty in a Multipolar World

ABSTRACT This article analyzes the impact of the changing international order on the subjugation of state citizens. The increased need for security brought on by great power competition has led states to become more authoritarian. Citizen freedom may decrease as states seek security. With the advancement of facial recognition software, data collection and censorship, the state is encroaching on the rights and freedoms of citizens right to privacy. Authoritarianism is a significant part of a state’s motivation to remain independent and secure as the international order changes from American unipolarity to a multipolar one given the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia. The three traits described, absolutism, organicism, and irrationalism, point to rising authoritarianism providing useful analysis to understand the zero-sum relationship between liberty and security.

United States-China Space Offensive: A Dangerous Competition

ABSTRACT With the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia in international politics, a new power politics has emerged between the Great Powers, which has extended the arenas of power competition. One such significant and emerging area for the strategic competition is space, as it holds the key to the projection and protection of all forms of power. The paper explores the contours of the emerging space competition between the United States and China and its ramifications. It argues that the emerging commercialization of space will cause legal, political, and environmental issues due to its satellite saturation, space debris, and high competition for space dominance. This competition encompasses various sectors including space tourism, space mining, exploration of Mars, and militarization, weaponization, and territorialization of space. This study attempts to critically view the power competition in space through the lens of offensive realism, proposing that the desire for ‘power in space for states’ hegemony has led to a security dilemma between United States and China, which has far-reaching consequences for international peace and stability.

Visions of Future Warfare in Russian Military Publications

Abstract The article discusses visions of future warfare articulated in recent Russian military publications. There seems to be agreement among Russian scholars that future war will be triggered by Western attempts to promote Western political and economic interests while holding back Russia's resurgence as a global power. The future war with the West is viewed as inevitable in one form or another, whether it is subversion and local wars or large-scale conventional war. While the danger of conventional war has declined, according to several scholars, the West is understood to have a wide range of non-kinetic means at its disposal that threaten Russia. In order to withstand future dangers, Russia has to be able to meet a large number of kinetic and non-kinetic threats at home and abroad.

Geographies of discontent: sources, manifestations and consequences

Introduction: great disruptions: the new normal? Recent history has not been kind to Fukuyama’s ‘end of history’ thesis, expounded thirty years ago (Fukuyama, 1989, 1992). Writing back then, with the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the break-up of the Soviet Union, Fukuyama’s contention concerned what he saw as the triumph of Western-style liberal-democratic free-market capitalism. Subsequent events have thrown such celebratory claims of the success of global political and economic liberalism into question. The resurgence of Russia, the ascendancy of China’s state authoritarianism, and the rise of Islamic fundamentalism are all proof that major ideological contests have far from disappeared. Yet further, over the past two decades or so, disruptions and upheavals within and among the capitalist West itself have revealed the fragility of market-based democracies.

Illusions of Autonomy: Why Europe Cannot Provide for Its Security If the United States Pulls Back

Abstract Europe's security landscape has changed dramatically in the past decade amid Russia's resurgence, mounting doubts about the long-term reliability of the U.S. security commitment, and Europe's growing aspiration for strategic autonomy. This changed security landscape raises an important counterfactual question: Could Europeans develop an autonomous defense capacity if the United States withdrew completely from Europe? The answer to this question has major implications for a range of policy issues and for the ongoing U.S. grand strategy debate in light of the prominent argument by U.S. “restraint” scholars that Europe can easily defend itself. Addressing this question requires an examination of the historical evolution as well as the current and likely future state of European interests and defense capacity. It shows that any European effort to achieve strategic autonomy would be fundamentally hampered by two mutually reinforcing constraints: “strategic cacophony,” namely profound, continent-wide divergences across all domains of national defense policies—most notably, threat perceptions; and severe military capacity shortfalls that would be very costly and time-consuming to close. As a result, Europeans are highly unlikely to develop an autonomous defense capacity anytime soon, even if the United States were to fully withdraw from the continent.

The Return of Great‐Power Competition to the Middle East: A Two‐Level Game

AbstractGreat‐power competition has once again assumed primacy in the international arena. Facing a rising China and a resurgent Russia, the United States formally reoriented its National Security Strategy in 2017 to place more emphasis on the return of great‐power politics and global multipolarity. With the resumption of such competition, the Middle East has rightfully been noted as a regional theater where Russia and China have sought to exploit US policy blunders and retrenchment (real or perceived) to push for increased regional multipolarity. Although the Middle East has been recognized as a prime theater for great‐power competition, the approaches adopted by most existing studies are primarily one‐sided: they examine great‐power competition in the region from the outside, stressing how global powers are manipulating affairs in the Middle East in order to advance their own interests. Often missing from this conversation is how external engagement in the Middle East is being exploited and shaped by regional powers and endogenous developments. This study seeks to fill this gap by using the conceptual lens of omnialignment to examine how regional powers are manipulating the return of great‐power competition to advance their own strategic imperatives, both at home and abroad.

AN APPRAISAL OF RUSSIA AND UNITED STATES (US) INVOLVEMENT IN SYRIA CIVIL WAR

Concerned by the worst humanitarian intractable civil war in Syria, this paper aims to appraise the involvements of Russia and the US inthewar. It questions the reasons behind these involvements as well as the implications of their respective involvements. To this end, the study adopted the theory of political realism (power model) as its framework of analysis. Utilizing documentary sources of data collection, the research employed the content analysis technique to analyze data collected. Through logical chain of evidence, deductions and inferences, the study discovered that although the driving force behind Russia and US involvements in Syria civil war is centered on their desire to secure and advance respective national interests, the resurgence of Russia as a formidable challenger in the Middle East is diminishing US hegemony in the region and US reluctance to accept this new reality will continue to cripple Syria and the region at large. Based on these findings, the paper concludes that, unless there emerges a ground for compromise, or a clear dominant power, or an internationally recognized efficient bureaucracy, the unrest in Syria will drag on.

RESURGENCE OF RUSSIA AS A GREAT POWER AND ITS FOREIGN POLICY ORIENTATION TOWARDS SOUTH ASIA

Russia has re-emerged as an important global actor after the advent of the post-Soviet era. Kremlin’s repositioning in the global affairs under President Vladimir Putin has led to a geopolitical and geostrategic transformation of its foreign policy. It follows multilateralism with active outreach in different parts of the world. In contemporary Russian foreign policy, there are tangible determinants that call for multipolar world order including realignment of foreign relations and consolidation of great power status. This paper, therefore, examines Russian foreign policy in the post-Crimean annexation era, where Moscow launched various campaigns through active engagements with the world’s larger economies and strategically important countries, such as China, India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The paper also highlights Russia’s evolving bilateral relations with these countries, especially in economic, political, and military spheres. Following the current global geopolitical realities, it also attempts to mark clear adjustments in Moscow’s foreign policy with respect to its power, responsibility, and ambitions for international peace and stability. Bibliography Entry Shah, Syed Taimoor, and Ayesha Afgun. 2020. "Resurgence of Russia as a Great Power and Its Foreign Policy Orientation towards South Asia." Margalla Papers 24 (2): 93-103.

The Sino-Russian partnership and global order

This essay about the Sino-Russian partnership and its relationship to global order makes four main arguments. The first is that the partnership is based on a sober appreciation of the two sides’ respective national interests. For all the rhetoric about shared values and common worldviews, this is a pragmatic, interests-based relationship. Second, it is a partnership between strategically autonomous actors, each with its own distinct agenda. Beijing and Moscow agree on much. But they do not operate as a coordinated force in international politics, let alone seek to build a new authoritarian world order. Third, although the rise of China and resurgence of Russia are trends of fundamental importance, the impact of their partnership on global order has been peripheral. Finally, the long-term outlook for the Sino-Russian partnership is uncertain. Against the backdrop of a fluid international environment, Beijing and Moscow face significant challenges in sustaining the momentum of their cooperation.

Sino-Russian Role in the 21st Century World Order

China and Russia have developed an underlying empathy on the transition of the contemporary US-led hegemonic world order. Since the dawn of the 21st century, the two Eurasian powers have been striving for transforming the global system to a multipolar world system. As Beijing and Moscow, along with other emerging powers were already weary of Washington’s unipolar moment and its self-proclaimed authority of overriding the entire international system. In the American worldwide hegemony, the rest of the nations; neither alone nor collectively could challenge its supremacy; as the political, economic and military dominance of the US was ascertained by its ascendency in the post-World war II established international organizations. However, during the past few decades the rapid rise of China; the resurgence of Russia and the relative decline of the US; evidently specify that the era of Pax-American is on the go. Moreover, the launching of Beijing sponsored transnational initiatives can be acknowledged as the pillars of a new multicentric global system in future. Hence, the dynamics of international politics are apparently heading towards the transition of the contemporary world system to a multipolar structure; where besides the US, China and Russia would also play significant role.

Bilateral defence and security cooperation despite disintegration: Does the Brexit process divide the United Kingdom and Germany on Russia?

AbstractWith wavering US support and Brexit unfolding, cooperation between Germany, the EU's economic powerhouse, and the United Kingdom, Western Europe's prime military power, becomes crucial for Europe's overall ability to deal with a resurgent Russia. Does institutional and normative disintegration between states, such as the Brexit process, weaken bilateral security cooperation? This article argues that such cooperation persists if both states continue to jointly perceive a third actor as threatening while regarding each other as useful and reliable when it comes to ameliorating this shared threat. The argument is tested on a case of intrinsic theoretical, historical, and political importance: British-German cooperation towards Russia before and after the 2016 Brexit referendum. The article finds, against a wide pessimist consensus to the contrary, that cooperation strengthened during the Brexit process. As the Ukraine crisis had caused converging threat perceptions since 2014, Brexit incentivised both sides to signal ongoing reliability to each other and, consequently, to view each other as more capable allies. The article combines qualitative comparisons and congruence analysis, drawing data from British, German and Russian primary sources in their respective original languages, including foreign and security policy documents as well as interviews with stakeholders involved in policy formation.

In search of a US grand strategy: considering resurgent Russia

The American political, military and economic dominance established after the dissolution of the USSR is showing a tendency to decline. This demands an adaptation of an American grand strategy toward the changing of reality, and particularly an adaptation of the strategy toward Revisionist Russia while significant American resources are redirected toward East Asia in order to balance the PRC. We assume that neither primacy nor offshore balancing nor restraint provides a satisfactory solution for the balancing of Russia. We believe that primacy may cause an overstretching to US capabilities and at the same time this GS is excessive for the balancing of Russia, especially considering that, in the long-run perspective, Russia’s capability to project power outside its borders will decline due to Russian structural weakness. Similarly, the strategies of restraint and offshore balancing tend to underestimate the power which Russia still possesses and the threat which it may pose to American interests and allies around the world, as has been demonstrated by Russian policy toward Ukraine. We suppose that deep engagement in its modest form is the most cost-effective GS enabling to fulfill American security main interests, while balancing the major competitors, including Russia, and simultaneously avoiding an overstretch.

Bipolar Strategic Stability in a Multipolar World

In recent times, threats to participatory democracy can arguably stem from a lack of strategic stability overshadowed by nuclear weapon-derived deterrence effects of a rising China and especially a relatively more belligerent resurgent Russia opposed to a Western alliance of democracies. This manuscript provides a scholarly analysis of strategic atability and illustrates some written truths that often seem incongruent with comments spoken by the same authors resulting from a hyper-politicized state of dialogue. The analysis is grounded in foundational concepts of deterrence and well-articulated in relevant policies and treaties.