Russian GDP Research Articles

Comparison of Production Indexes and GDP Levels of Russia and Turkey over the Years

This research aimed to compare the production indexes and GDP levels of Russia and Turkey over the years. The study uses manufacturing and GDP statistics for Turkey and Russia from the World Bank's Country Reports for the years 2002–2023. The data was analyzed using relational and descriptive scanning techniques. The mean MVA value of Türkiye was 128.033.708.560,22±45.970.873.474,95 with 60.042.508.306,24-210.698.007.198,77 range. For Russia, the MVA mean was 164.593.974.821,70±25.737.507.037,58 with 114.335.877.575,54-210.748.733.491,24 range. The mean MVA was significantly higher in Russia (p<0.05). GDP differences between Türkiye and Russia were statistically insignificant (p>0.05). Manufacturing value added in Türkiye had a higher range and lower mean compared to Russia. Pearson correlation analysis results between MVA and GDP showed that in Türkiye, MVA was significantly and positively correlated with GDP (r=0.599; p<0.01). Similarly, MVA was positively correlated with GDP in Russia (r=0.729; p<0.01). Although Turkey and Russia significantly convert their value added production into economic value as GDP, Russia is more successful than Turkey in terms of correlation coefficient. In other words, Russia's value added production is more convertible to the economy than Turkey's.

Assessing the Impact of Budget Momentum and Budget Expenditures on Russia's Real GDP

Assessing the Impact of Budget Momentum and Budget Expenditures on Russia's Real GDP

Значимость транспортного налога в обеспечении экономической безопасности Российской Федерации за 2006–2022 годы

The article makes an attempt to clarify the significance of transport tax in ensuring the economic security of the Russian Federation for 2006–2022, for which the necessary statistical data were grouped (absolute values of transport tax receipts in the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation, revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation and GDP, etc.). The results obtained allowed us to conclude that the role of transport tax is insignificant in terms of the volume of tax revenues, fluctuations in these volumes are quite small. At the same time, it is shown that the importance of the tax, taking into account the qualitative characteristics, is indisputable. In order to increase economic security, recommendations are proposed regarding its modernization in tax legislation.

Adaptive potential of Russian economic growth in the context of decline in foreign direct investment

This study analyses the adaptive potential of Russia’s economic growth in the context of decline in foreign direct investment (hereinafter referred to as FDI). In light of today’s geopolitical environment, marked by increased trade tension and protectionist measures, understanding the impact of FDI on Russia’s gross domestic product (hereinafter referred to as GDP) becomes critical for policy-making and economic planning. The study employs a vector autoregression modeling approach (hereinafter referred to as VAR) to analyse the dynamics of Russia’s GDP and FDI inflows with consideration to various economic and geopolitical factors. Besides, an extensive dataset is used covering the period from 1996 to 2021 which includes relevant macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical events. The VAR model allows to study short- and long-term correlations between variables reflecting dynamic interaction and feedback effects. In addition, impulse response analysis is used to estimate the magnitude and sustainability of economic growth under conditions of economic instability. The results of the study contribute to understanding the adaptative potential of Russia’s economic growth in the context of FDI restrictions from Western countries. The analysis provides insight into the significance of FDI inflows for the Russian GDP with consideration to the impact of various economic and geopolitical factors.

Nowcasting the Russian economy macroeconomic indicators under uncertainty: Does taking into account the news sentiment help?

In this paper the following models are compared: restricted and unrestricted MIDAS-models (mixed data sampling models), MFBVAR-model (mixed frequency Bayesian vector autoregression), Linear model with regularization (MIDAS_L1-, MIDAS_L2and MIDAS_PC-model) and dynamic factor model. The results are compared with classical autoregression as a benchmark. Production indices for different industries and indicators characterizing Russian GDP and its components, energy prices and PMI of Russia and its main trading partners, as well as indicators derived from the analysis of sentiment of news articles published by a number of major media and blogs are used as explanatory variables. The paper also proposes a method of rapid assessment of the current state of the economy based on data for the first or first two months of the quarter in question only. The use of this approach in combination with news sentiment analysis allows to draw conclusions about current economic situation extremely rapidly. Models’ accuracy is assessed by cross-validation for periods before and after the Q2 2022, the significance of the effect of adding news variables is assessed using the Diebold—Mariano test. When testing during the crisis period (starting from the Q1 2022), the addition of news variables leads to an increase in accuracy for 45% of the models considered, and the average improvement (reduction in the average absolute error) was 1.39 points (the reduction in MAE for the science-based GDP growth rates of Russia is 0.64 p.p.). At the same time, in a calmer (pre-sanction) period, the advantage of news is less noticeable: an increase in accuracy was recorded in 30% of cases with an average decrease in error of 1.54 points (the decrease in MAE for Russia’s GDP growth rate is 0.26 p.p.), and the change accuracy of science data when adding variables reflecting the news background turns out to be statistically insignificant. Thus, the use of news sentiment is not a “silver bullet” in the task of nowcasting Russian GDP, but in times of crisis it can serve as a good and, importantly, very operative indicator of the state of the economy and can be used in conjunction with more traditional explanatory variables.

Экономический рост в России: структура, инвестиции и «экономика знаний»

Subject/topic. The study is devoted to a structural analysis of the growth of the Russian economy by components of GDP and the structure of investments – financial and non-financial. The article presents the results of an assessment of the structural model of growth of the Russian economy in the period from 2003 to 2023. The purpose of the study is to identify the structural characteristics of Russia’s economic growth according to the basic parameter – the country’s gross domestic product, which differ for different time intervals, and have specificity relative to 2022 and 2023, when external conditions and factors of economic growth have changed dramatically. The methodology is based on the theory of economic growth and macroeconomic policy, structural analysis. The information base of the study is formed by statistical data from Rosstat. Their use makes it possible to identify the features of economic growth in Russia, highlighting its structural composition according to the dynamics of GDP components by expenditure and basic sectors: raw materials, manufacturing and transaction, which together give the total value of GDP. In addition, an assessment is made of the structure of «financial-non-financial» investments and their impact on economic growth, taking into account the institutional shift of the financial market, as well as the connection between the «knowledge economy» and growth. The result of the study is the identified inhibitory role of financial investments in the implementation of the policy of lowering interest rates, as well as the low level of determination of the «knowledge economy» by expenses on scientific research and development, which for the Russian economic system creates further problems with providing technological growth factors in the field of achieving technological sovereignty. Conclusions/significance The conducted structural analysis of the growth of the Russian economy shows the absence of significant changes in the structural dynamics of GDP in 2022-2023, confirming the value of its own application of such analysis in justifying macroeconomic and structural policy measures in Russia, as well as the intensification of efforts in the field of growth policy. The prospect of the study comes down to modeling the influence of external and internal growth factors on its structural parameters and, on this basis, to justify measures of structural and general macroeconomic policy of economic changes that ensure the growth of Russia's GDP.

АГРОПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННЫЙ ЭКСПОРТ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ: ВЫЯВЛЕНИЕ ТЕНДЕНЦИИ РАЗВИТИЯ И РЕАЛИЗАЦИЯ ПОТЕНЦИАЛА

Agriculture is one of the priority areas for the development of the Russian economy, which accounts for about 4% of Russian GDP. Today, in a difficult geopolitical situation, the countries of the world (the majority) consider export activities as a key basis for the stability of the economy, support its development with the developed sets of measures. The purpose of the study was to identify current trends in the development of agro-food exports of the Russian Federation. Methods. The methods of system analysis, synthesis, generalization, and interpretation of the results were used in the work. In the course of the research, the systematization of statistical data, scientific publications of scientists on the topic of the presented work was carried out. Results. The current trend in the development of agro-food exports of the Russian Federation has been determined. Discussion. The goal was achieved by performing the following tasks: analysis of the share of exports of food products and raw materials for their production in the commodity structure of exports; assessment of the trend in the share of imports of food products and raw materials for their production from non-CIS countries in 2020-2022; determination of the vector of orientation of the benchmark of financial support for the promotion of Russian agro-food products. Conclusion. The study revealed a positive trend in the development of agri-food exports in the Russian Federation, characterized by a tendency to decrease the share of imports of food products and raw materials for their production from non-CIS countries in 2020-2022. It is stated that the benchmark of financial support for the promotion of Russian agri-food products should have a vector for the environmental friendliness of food products according to criteria in the leading importing countries of Russian agricultural products (China, Turkey).

Trends in the Development of Small Business in Russia and the Baikal Region in 2017–2023

The purpose of the article is to consider modern, mainly quantitative, trends in the development of small business in two subjects of the Baikal region — the Republic of Buryatia and the Irkutsk region. At the same time, the current trends are compared with the all-Russian trends and key indicators that traditionally characterize the state of small business in developed countries, and with the target indicators of the Strategy for the Development of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030. As a result of the analysis of a number of absolute and relative indicators, conclusions are drawn about a rather specific modern picture of small business development in the regions under consideration against the background of such all-Russian trends as an increase in the number of small and microenterprises with a reduction in the number of employees employed in them, a decrease in the proportion of the number of employees of small enterprises in the total number of employed and an almost unchanged value of the contribution indicator small business in Russia's GDP. It can be seen that while maintaining such dynamics, it is impossible to achieve the target targets of the Strategy. At the same time, since its development, a significant number of negative external factors have appeared that affect the development of business, including small ones, which have caused the emergence of problems of a new nature. Consequently, we should not talk about the inefficiency of the measures taken by the state and other support for small businesses, but rather about the insufficiency of these measures and their untimely actualization within the framework of the impact of newly emerging negative environmental factors.

EU economic sanctions against russia and the effectiveness of their application

EU economic sanctions against Russia and their effectiveness are a topical study that examines the impact of sanctions on the russian economy and politics. The aim of the study is to substantiate the effectiveness of the application of EU economic sanctions against russia, in particular, to determine their impact on the economic situation of the aggressor country, including changes in GDP, export-import operations, the state of the financial sector and other economic indicators. In the course of the study, key aspects that affect the effectiveness of economic sanctions were identified: political support, the power of the object of sanctions, the compliance of sanctions with specific goals, the effective application of sanctions, alternative options for the addressee country, the time aspect, and the impact on the population. The nature of the impact of sanctions is also determined: trade obstruction, financial constraints, economic downturn, humanitarian impact, changing alliances and economic relations, long-term economic consequences, global economic consequences, adaptive response, and it is proved that the impact of sanctions can vary greatly depending on the economic stability of the object country, its ability to adapt, the scope and severity of sanctions, as well as global geopolitical dynamics. The analysis of measures imposed by the EU in the context of sanctions, including restrictions on access to financial markets, sectoral restrictions on trade and sanctions against individuals or companies, is carried out. The authors analyzed the effectiveness of sanctions from the point of view of achieving EU political goals in the context of the war in Ukraine, as well as their impact on the economic situation in russia. It is revealed that russia's GDP growth is projected in the coming years, which indicates insufficient effectiveness of the sanctions imposed and applied to the economy of the aggressor country. In addition, the results of the study allowed us to assess the dynamics of relations between the EU and russia in the context of sanctions policy and their possible impact on economic and political processes in both regions.

The Effects of Demographic Change on GDP Growth: Research Focus on Russia

There has been a downward trend in economic growth in several economies over the past few decades, with the slowdown trend particularly evident in the case of Russia. These records estimate how much of this growth slowdown can be accounted for by demographic changes. Specifically, this study estimated how a changing age structure of the population (between four groups-ages 0-14, 15-64, and 65+) has affected GDP growth using annual time series data for Russia. The analysis is applied using the Bayesian VAR model. The data for the study are obtained from the World Bank. It was found that demographic changes account for a significant portion of the downward trend in the economic growth of Russia during the past decade. Moreover, the continuation of the demographic shift toward an older population is likely a valuable factor that has increased GDP growth in Russia over the last couple of decades. The research results point out that during the last decade; demographic effects have not had any significant influence on the change of GDP growth levels in Russia. Therefore, the research study contributes in a way indicating that future growth of GDP in Russia will depend much more on the growth of structural productivity, new technologies and worker profitability and much less on demographic changes.

The Role of Large Corporations of Non-Ferrous Metallurgy in Providing Revenues of Regional Budgets Illustrated by Krasnoyarsk Territory (the public company ‘Norilsk Nickel’) and Irkutsk Region (the public company ‘OK RUSAL’)

Invariably high role of large tonnage and low-added-value business in economy of the Russian Federation stipulates topicality of such research. Big business reaching 78-80% of Russian GDP will continue playing the primary role, which will be backed by exchange rate in exporters’ interests and their raw material orientation. Iron and steel industry in Russia by budget, production and export significance yields only to oil and gas sphere. Ferrous and nonferrous metallurgy produces the most important construction materials for other industries and at the same time keeps up the demand for highly-qualified workers with rather high level of wages. The goal of the research is to identify the contribution of large companies of non-ferrous metallurgy to revenues of the Russian Federation budget system. For this end the authors analyzed accounts of companies with budget system on profit tax, on value-added tax, tax on individuals and tax on company property. Information base of the research was formed by works of home and overseas authors that show the role of large corporations in social and economic development of regions and countries, Rosstat data, information of the Federal Taxation Service on the Irkutsk region and the Krasnoyarsk territory, official annul and finance accounting of the public company ‘OK RUSAL’ and the public company ‘Norilsk Nickel’.

Reforming energy subsidies for the population of Russia

This paper for the first time estimates the scale of subsidizing the Russian population through low prices for the energy sector products (1.76 trillion rubles, or 1.3% of Russian GDP in 2021). The need to reform the existing subsidy system is justified due to a number of its defects (appropriation of most of the subsidies by the wealthiest population, significant costs of business to maintain low prices for energy products, reduction of incentives for energy saving and transition to green technologies among consumers of the energy sector products). The phenomenon of an implicit “social contract”, in which the state maintains prices for socially important goods and services at a level acceptable for the population in exchange for the loyalty of citizens, is discussed in detail. The paper analyzes alternative options for reforming energy subsidies for the population. The conclusion is made that the most reasonable reform would be one providing for zeroing of subsidies with the use of part of the released budget resources to increase socially oriented government spending (targeted social payments are considered to be the basiс form of such spending). The proposed subsidy reform scheme is interpreted as a change in the social contract model that is acceptable to the public, namely, a shift from the “low prices of socially important goods — low socially important state expenditure” model to the “high prices of socially important goods — high socially important state expenditure” model.

The trilemma among CO2 emissions, energy use, and economic growth in Russia

This paper examines the relationship among CO2 emissions, energy use, and GDP in Russia using annual data ranging from 1990 to 2020. We first conduct time-series analyses (stationarity, structural breaks, cointegration, and causality tests). Then, we performed some Machine Learning experiments as robustness checks. Both approaches underline a bidirectional causal flow between energy use and CO2 emissions; a unidirectional link running from CO2 emissions to real GDP; and the predominance of the “neutrality hypothesis” for energy use-GDP nexus. Therefore, energy conservation measures should not adversely affect the economic growth path of the country. In the current geopolitical scenario, relevant policy implications may be derived.

ОЦЕНКА РОЛИ СФЕРЫ УСЛУГ В ЭКОНОМИКЕ СТРАНЫ И ТРЕНДЫ ЕЕ РАЗВИТИЯ

The article studies the importance of the role of the service sector in the Russian economy, as well as the main trends in its development in the context of the world economy. The main features of the concept of "service" were identified and characterized. An analysis of the state of the problem was carried out based on statistical data from the Federal State Statistics Service, data obtained from open sources, including official websites. In the course of the study, the sectors of the Russian economy were aggregated to highlight the share of the service sector in the overall structure. It was revealed that the share of the service sector with a significant gap is the largest in the structure of Russia's GDP. In addition, in a similar way, the shares of the service sector by types of economic activity in the turnover of organizations, in the distribution of organizations, the number and structure of employees were identified. The average monthly nominal accrued salary of workers in the service sector among other aggregated types of economic activity was analyzed. In conclusion, a comparison was made of the structure of Russia's GDP with that of other major states. As a result of the study, the main factors that influenced the positive dynamics of the service sector in Russia were identified. In addition, the reasons for the lowest weight of the service sector in the structure of Russia's GDP compared with the corresponding indicators of other countries under consideration were identified. It has been proven that the role of the service sector in the country's economy is extremely significant and, in general, has a great impact on economic development. In conclusion, recommendations were given that are necessary for the further strategic development of the industry.

The economic impacts of Russia–Ukraine War export disruptions of grain commodities

AbstractUsing the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model, we analyze the economic impacts of grain export disruptions caused by the Russia–Ukraine War during the first year of hostilities. The simulation results indicate that these disruptions not only affect Ukraine and Russia but also generate significant economic impacts across other world regions. Ukraine is projected to experience the largest impact on its own economy, with a real GDP loss of $859 million. In contrast, Russia's GDP is projected to decline by only $3.8 million, primarily due to its much lower dependence on grain exports and to favorable terms of trade effects.

Influence of Underutilization of Production Capacities on the Dynamics of Russian GDP: An Assessment on the Basis of Production Functions

Sustainable development of the state implies a proportional change in the key macroeconomic indicators described by standard models, one of which is the exponential production function (a special case of the Cobb-Douglas function), where the number of employees (labor) and the value of fixed assets (capital) acts as factor inputs, and GDP becomes the output, and output elasticities of production factors are estimated. This function is successfully used to analyze and predict macroeconomic processes in both developed and developing economies. The purpose of the study is to use econometric modeling—applying the exponential Cobb-Douglas production function—to identify the presence or absence of dependencies of production factors (labor, capital, etc.) on the final product output in Russia. The study shows that in Russia, GDP does not significantly depend on fixed assets. The authors hypothesized that this discrepancy is due to underutilization of production capacities and proved that to reveal the real dependence of Russian GDP production on the value of fixed assets it is necessary to adjust the indicators published by Rosstat for utilization of production capacities, which made it possible to fully use the methodological capabilities of production functions for the analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic processes in Russia.

Estimation of Russia's GDP Losses Due to Sanctions Using the Global Vector Autoregression Model

Using mathematical and statistical methods, the authors made an attempt to estimate the losses in the domestic economy under the impact of the imposed sanctions. As a measurement tool is proposed a global vector autoregression model. In this model, the dynamics of GDP is considered as the main performance characteristic, and the rate of change in foreign trade turnover with key partners is used as the key prerequisites for the forecast. The use of this model building scheme is explained by the fact that the economic sanctions imposed on Russia have a negative impact on domestic macroeconomic indicators, and this happens through a variety of channels, key ones being the restriction of external demand and supply, leading to a decrease in trade turnover with the main trading partners, and change in oil revenues. This approach takes into account the relationship between the economies of different countries and their dependence on global markets. To obtain quantitative estimates, conditional forecasts are used as part of scenario analysis.According to the authors’ approach the losses from economic sanctions are measured by the decrease in the volume of Russia's foreign trade with key foreign trade partners, as well as by the discount for Russian oil compared to its global price. In addition to the forecast estimates, the validity of the approach is proofed with the forecast for the crisis period of 2014–2015 as an example. Based on the analysis of the current situation in foreign trade, Russian GDP in 2022 in the baseline scenario may fall by 5.4%, but with some reorientation of trade a decrease may be around 3.7%.

Energy Logistic Regression and Survival Model: Case Study of Russian Exports.

The importance of environmental sustainability is becoming more and more obvious, so the rationale behind long-term usage of solely non-renewable energy sources appeared questionable. This study aims to identify, using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and logistic regressions, the main determinants that affect the duration of Russian non-renewable energy exports to different regions of the world. Data were retrieved from the databanks of the World Development Indicators (WDI), World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), and the French Centre for Prospective studies and International Information (CEPII). The obtained results point to the fact that approximately 52% of energy products survive beyond their first year of trading, nearly 38% survive beyond the second year, and almost 18% survive to the twelfth year. The survival of Russian non-renewable energy exports differs depending on the region, and the affecting factors are of different importance. The duration of Russian non-renewable energy exports is significantly linked to Russia's GDP, Total export, and Initial export values. A decline in Russia's GDP by 1% is associated with an increasing probability of a spell ending by 2.9% on average, in turn growing Total export and Initial export values positively linked with the duration of non-renewable energy exports from Russia. These findings may have practical relevance for strategic actions aimed at approaching both energy security and environmental sustainability.

Эконометрическое прогнозирование на 2023 год ВВП России в условиях санкционных ценовых ограничений на экспорт нефти марки «Юралс»

The 2023 has seen a significant increase in the sanctions pressure on Russia and Russian national economy from geo-economic and geo-political opponents. Such a pressure affected, in particular, the oil production and oil refining industries. From December 5, 2022, most Western countries introduced a price ceiling for the purchase of Russian crude oil ($60 per barrel), and from February 5, 2023, on Russian petroleum products traded at a premium and at a discount to crude oil ($100 per barrel and $45 per barrel, respectively). Under these conditions, it is important to foresee what impact the above price and other sanctions will have on the dynamics of Russia’s GDP and its growth. As a forecasting tool, we use the macroeconomic production function, where GDP depends on fixed assets, the level of their use, the labor and the world price of Urals oil, the values of which were selected in accordance with forecasts of the Bank of Russia and the Russian Ministry of Economic Development at the level of $55 and $65 per barrel (in 2010 dollars). The originality and advantage of this production function over many other forecast models are the following: firstly, its average ex-post forecast errors for 22 years ahead do not exceed 5,1%, and, secondly, over these years the direction of the dynamics of ex-post forecast GDP coincides almost everywhere with the direction of the dynamics of actual GDP, including during the crisis of 2009, sanctions pressure started in 2014 and the epidemic of the Wuhan coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in 2020-2021. The results of econometric forecasting showed the following: at a price of $55, the minimum growth rate of Russia's GDP will be – 1,1%, the average will be 0,2%, and the maximum will reach 1,6%. At a price of $65, the minimum growth rate of Russia's GDP will be 1,7%, the average will be 3,1%, and the maximum will be 4,5%. Thus, according to our forecasts, the Russian economy will grow, instead of falling into recession as many geo-economic and geo-political opponents of Russia would anticipate.

Построение модели GVAR для российской экономики

The relationship between the economies of various countries and their dependence on the world markets indicate that for econometric analysis of the impact of external shocks on a particular economy, it is necessary to use a model of the global economy. The aim of this paper is to build a global vector autoregression model (GVAR), including Russia as one of the regions, and to obtain the impact of some external economic shocks on Russian macroeconomic indicators. We build a model that includes 41 of the world's major economies, including Russia, and the oil market. The special features of our model are structural shifts in the dynamics of Russian output and the new specification of oil supply and oil demand. Impulse response functions are used to obtain quantitative estimates. In this paper, we analyze the reaction of outputs, oil production volumes and oil prices in response to the output shocks of China and the United States. In response to the negative shock of output in the world's leading economies, outputs in the rest of the world declined for at least the first year after the shock. There was also a significant decline in oil prices and no significant change in oil production volumes in most countries. In addition, as part of the conditional forecast, we estimated the impact of the decline in global demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic on the Russian GDP as 1,3% drop. The rest of the de cline in Russian GDP can be attributed to the internal effects of the pandemic (lockdown). We also obtained a scenario forecast of the dynamics of Russian GDP depending on a decrease in trade and Russian oil price discount, within which the fall in Russian output could reach 3.3% in 2022.