Russian Forces Research Articles

The threat of Russia's force in Ukraine

ABSTRACT In December 2021, Russia's military build-up near Ukraine, accompanied by explicit denials of any plans for an incursion, presents a significant case study on hidden threats of force. The Russian Representative to the United Nations argued that positioning military forces within its sovereign territory was a domestic matter and not a threat-an argument supported by China and uncontested by a few other member states (India, Ghana and Belarus). Such representations were presented despite the strong evidence of an impending invasion, including troop deployments along the Ukrainian border, strategic use of locations (such as Belarus) and medical personnel involvement. This case study raises important legal questions: how can threats of force, which violate the prohibition in Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, be more clearly identified? Furthermore, how can the international community improve its ability to censure such disguised or denied threats, as in Russia's case?

On the protective effects of European sustainable stocks during the Russian invasion of Ukraine

ABSTRACT Sustainable investments remain popular, attracting investors and researchers alike. Especially the tail-risk properties seem to differ between sustainable stocks and common stocks. Empirically, this can be observed in particular during extreme events. On 24 February 2022 Russian forces invaded Ukraine, thereby marking the beginning of a major historical event. Using standard event study methodology, we analyse if and how Refinitiv’s environmental, social, and governance (ESG) ratings, as well as carbon dioxide ( C O 2 ) intensity, influence cumulative abnormal returns during different event windows. We find that the abnormal returns of companies with high ecological scores exhibit a protective effect in the pre- and post-event windows. However, this effect did not materialize in all observed event windows. Therefore, our findings do not fully support the hypothesis of an ‘ESG hedge’ against such extreme events, although our research supports the notion that the reduced risk, associated with ESG investments, is priced by the market.

Unveiling the Legal Impacts: The Unilateral Termination of the 1997 Russian-Ukrainian Friendship Treaty

In 2022, Russian forces seized the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, and reported more than 700 attacks on health facilities, personnel, and transport vehicles, resulting in the deaths of over 200 people. Despite encountering complex issues, Ukraine and Russia concluded the 1997 Russian-Ukrainian Friendship Treaty, which addressed matters of equality, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. However, Ukraine unilaterally terminated the Treaty in 2018. This research aims to analyze the legal implications arising from the unilateral termination of the Treaty, focusing on the realm of international law. The research employs a combination of normative legal research, analytical conceptual approaches, and case studies. The findings indicate that the termination of the Treaty adhered to Article 54(a) of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties 1969. Nevertheless, the termination has resulted in legal uncertainty and has the potential to exacerbate pre-existing tensions, particularly regarding territorial integrity, which have intensified since 2014.

(De)legitimization of Private Soldiers without Legal Status: The Case of Ukraine

ABSTRACT For several decades, the increased need for but the illegality of mercenaries led Western countries to favor the evolution of these private soldiers into corporate forms under the name of private military contractors (PMCs). While the number of new Western PMCs was increasing and their use was being attempted to be legitimized, underfitting mercenary-like PMCs, such as those in Russia, were condemned as illegal and illegitimate. Russian forces’ renewed invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked the beginning of the argument about the legality and legitimacy of the use of private soldiers once again. This article aims to reveal if the Russo-Ukrainian war tends to contribute to the legitimization efforts of Western PMCs positively or negatively by exploring the changes in the qualities distinguishing between Western and mercenary-like PMCs. The study concludes that the Russo-Ukrainian war undermined the legitimization course of Western PMCs in the first half of 2022, whereas, in the second half, it has served the legimization efforts.

Uczniowie z doświadczeniem migracji na lekcjach języka niemieckiego w polskiej szkole podstawowej – perspektywa nauczycieli

In February 2022, the invasion of Ukrainian territories by Russian forces took place, leading to a mass exodus of the Ukrainian population from the war-affected areas. Many individuals who left Ukraine due to the war sought refuge in Poland, and their children began attending Polish schools. Some of these children appeared in Polish classes only temporarily, but as reported by the Ministry of Education and Science in September 2023, 180,000 students from Ukraine began their education in Polish schools. The influx of Ukrainian children into Polish schools posed various challenges, especially for foreign language teachers, as their classes became linguistically and culturally heterogeneous. The aim of the conducted study was to answer the following questions: (1) What kind of challenges do German language teachers face in classes where students from Ukraine are learning? (2) Which teaching techniques do German language teachers consider most effective in linguistically and culturally heterogeneous classes? The article presents the results of the study conducted through interviews using an unstructured dialogical method with four German language teachers teaching elementary school students with migration experience. The research framework was based on the concept of Universal Design for Learning, taking into account the principles of inclusive teaching.

Иностранная военная интервенция в годы Гражданской войны в России (1917–1922): опыт истории и уроки для современности

The article analyses the materials on the Allied military intervention in Russia presented at the round table that took place in Moscow in March 2024. This topic is relevant due to the challenges faced by Russia nowadays. The presentations covered the reasons for the Allied intervention, its participants, their goals and interests, the chronology of the invasion, its milestones, key events and final results, as well as the historical experience of fighting against the intervention. It was emphasized that the huge foreign military and other assistance to the anti-Bolshevik forces in Russia escalated and prolonged the Civil War. In addition, the round table participants discussed the relevant historical lessons drawn from the experience of fighting against the intervention, as well as the formation and preservation of historical memory of the Civil War and Allied intervention in Russia.

A socioeconomic framework for cultural heritage loss and rebuilding in post-war Ukraine: a case study learning from the Balkan experiences

ABSTRACT The war that has been raging in Ukraine since 24 February has claimed thousands of lives. The attacks by Russian forces on residential and public buildings have caused material damage on a scale not seen since the Second World War, in violation of existing international conventions. Military operations have also targeted Ukrainian cultural heritage. The conflict in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, which was to some extent similar, also resulted in the destruction of a large amount of immovable heritage. This article outlines promising approaches to solving the key problems of post-war heritage restoration in Ukraine, taking into account the relevant experiences of the Balkan countries. The Balkan case can provide scientific added value derived from the synthesis of the Balkan and Ukrainian experiences to increase the effectiveness of reconstruction assistance from international institutions. Practical recommendations for the establishment of an efficient post-war heritage management system are also provided.

The ICC jurisdiction in Ukraine: challenges and opportunities in the fight against impunity

This article examines the legal relationship between the International Criminal Court (ICC) and Ukraine, a non-party to the Rome Statute, focusing on the scope of the Court's jurisdiction to consider Ukraine's referrals regarding serious crimes committed on its territory since 2014. Discussions regarding the extension of the ICC's jurisdiction over Ukraine commenced in 2014-2015 following Ukraine's two requests for recognition of the ICC's ad hoc jurisdiction. Following the full-scale invasion in 2022, the ICC consolidated these proceedings with the ongoing investigation of crimes committed in Ukraine since 2014. This article analyzes how the ICC's jurisdiction applies to Ukraine, the challenges and prospects for cooperation between the ICC and Ukraine in investigating crimes committed by Russian forces, and the broader implications for the international criminal justice system. The authors analyze arguments for and against Ukraine's ratification of the Rome Statute, concluding that the ICC's jurisdictional framework, particularly concerning the crime of aggression, requires refinement.

Новые гарантии долгосрочных сбережений граждан

On January 1 of this year, Federal Law No. 632-FZ “On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation” came into force in Russia, containing very serious legal guarantees for long-term savings of citizens.

О НОВЫХ ПОДХОДАХ К СОЗДАНИЮ ВЫСОТНО-СПАСАТЕЛЬНЫХ АВТОМОБИЛЕЙ НА СОВРЕМЕННОМ ЭТАПЕ

Information is provided on the development and production of high-altitude rescue vehicles at the present stage, as well as on the transition of domestic standards to the international standardization system within the framework of the states belonging to the Commonwealth of Independent States. The differences between the requirements of modern standards for fire ladders and car lifts, which come into force in Russia on July 1, 2024, and those in force, are considered. The analysis of modern terminology in the design and operation of fire ladders and car lifts, new approaches to some of their parameters, as well as the introduction of additional parameters is given. The requirements for the chassis that ensure the prompt departure of high-altitude rescue vehicles to the place of fire (accident), the conditions for ensuring cargo static and dynamic stability when applying fire extinguishing agents, the need for equipment with control devices and pointers in connection with the use of computer technologies in their control systems have been formed. The technical solutions for providing modern fire trucks with automatic boom stage alignment systems are analyzed, promising approaches to creating boom stage alignment systems are substantiated. The conclusion is made about the compliance of modern high-altitude rescue vehicles with the requirements of Interstate standards.

Вплив «сільських» поведінкових стратегій населення України на якість життя в умовах війни

The purpose of the article is to analyse and understand how «rural» behavioural aspects of the Ukrainian population influence the perception and adaptation to the conditions of armed conflict. The novelty of the study lies in the analysis of those rural behavioural aspects that are common to the entire population and may impact adaptation strategies and the improvement of quality of life during military events. In the context of modern conflicts and war scenarios, the study of population behaviour and its impact on the resilience of quality of life becomes particularly significant. Military conflicts not only threaten the safety and stability of society but also sharply increase the importance of understanding population behavioural aspects in the conditions of armed conflict and their impact on the quality of life. The examination of population behaviour during an extreme period of armed conflict potentially provides answers to how effectively the Ukrainian population can adapt to economic difficulties and overcome them. For the investigation of the impact of «rural» behavioural aspects on the quality of life of the population in Ukraine, a combination of specialized and general scientific methods was employed. These include the monographic method, bibliometrics, and content analysis. Additionally, forecasting and modelling methods were utilized to predict the impact of fullscale military actions on poverty, a key indicator of quality of life. After the conducted research, it can be noted that in the conditions of a full-scale invasion by Russian forces, the «rural» behavioural characteristics of Ukrainians exhibit numerous advantages, arising from the close interaction between rural and urban existence. It is demonstrated that a potentially significant portion of the country’s population, particularly those of rural origin, possesses skills in land management. The presence of relatives in villages and small towns, who have large living spaces and substantial land plots, enabled the acceptance of many forcibly displaced individuals during the war. The study confirms that behavioural traits such as the tradition of stockpiling food supplies, maintaining habitable housing conditions in rural areas, and the existence of close familial and social ties have significantly mitigated the impact of the war on the population.

The effects of the Russia–Ukraine war and the Wagner Group coup on defense stocks in Europe: an event study analysis

Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of the beginning of the Russia–Ukraine war and the Wagner Group’s attempted military coup against Putin’s regime on the European defense sector, consisting of weapons manufacturers. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the event study methodology to quantify the impact. That is, the authors assume that markets are efficient, and abnormal stock returns around the event dates capture the magnitudes of the impacts of the two events studied on European defense sector companies. The authors use the capital asset pricing model and two different multifactor models to estimate expected stock returns, which serve as the benchmark necessary to obtain abnormal returns. Findings The start of the war on February 24, 2022, when the Russian forces invaded Ukraine, was followed by high positive abnormal returns of up to 12% in the next few days. The results are particularly strong if multiple factors are used to control for the risk of the defense stocks. Conversely, the authors find a negative impact of the rebellion initiated by the mercenary Wagner Group’s chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on June 23, 2023, on the abnormal returns of defense industry stocks on the first trading day after the event. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study of the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the defense sector. Furthermore, this is the first study to measure the financial implications of the military coup initiated by the Wagner Group. The findings contribute to a rapidly growing literature on the financial implications of military conflicts around the world.

Digital witnesses to the crime: Visual representation of the Bucha massacre across social media platforms

This article investigates the role of social media platforms in the visual representation of the Bucha massacre perpetrated by Russian forces during the aggression against Ukraine in 2022. By considering the interconnectedness of the online and offline spheres, the authors explore the impact of social media on the coverage of the massacre. The study focuses on a comprehensive analysis of 6,185 images disseminated on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram between 29 March and 15 September 2022. Through an analysis of the intricate dynamics between war crimes, visual representations and social media platforms, the article invites contemplation on how digital artifacts shape our collective understanding of historical atrocities.

A Generalizable Theory-Driven Agent-Based Framework to Study Conflict-Induced Forced Migration

Large-scale population displacements arising from conflict-induced forced migration generate uncertainty and introduce several policy challenges. Addressing these concerns requires an interdisciplinary approach that integrates knowledge from both computational modeling and social sciences. We propose a generalized computational agent-based modeling framework grounded by Theory of Planned Behavior to model conflict-induced migration outflows within Ukraine during the start of that conflict in 2022. Existing migration modeling frameworks that attempt to address policy implications primarily focus on destination while leaving absent a generalized computational framework grounded by social theory focused on the conflict-induced region. We propose an agent-based framework utilizing a spatiotemporal gravity model and a Bi-threshold model over a Graph Dynamical System to update migration status of agents in conflict-induced regions at fine temporal and spatial granularity. This approach significantly outperforms previous work when examining the case of Russian invasion in Ukraine. Policy implications of the proposed framework are demonstrated by modeling the migration behavior of Ukrainian civilians attempting to flee from regions encircled by Russian forces. We also showcase the generalizability of the model by simulating a past conflict in Burundi, an alternative conflict setting. Results demonstrate the utility of the framework for assessing conflict-induced migration in varied settings as well as identifying vulnerable civilian populations.

Heightened Smuggling of Weapons and Ammunition from Southern Caucasus to Northwestern Iran on the Eve of World War I

Abstract Documents newly found in the Historical Archives of Azerbaijan Republic reveal that as early as 1912 Ottoman agents were engaged in attempts to entice the Transcaucasian Muslims against Russia and prepare them for the war, which would break out a year-and-a-half later, namely the First World War. Ottomans encouraged the smuggling of Russian weapons and ammunition to regions bordering the Southern Caucasus, especially Northwestern Iran, counting on the sympathy of the Turkophones therein against the Russians, or on their antagonism towards the presence of Russian forces in their own territories. The heightened smuggling of Russian weapons and ammunition alarmed the Russian authorities who began looking into the cases of smugglings in an attempt to prevent or minimize them. Their findings, as expressed in their correspondences, pointed towards an extensive smuggling network headed by an Iranian émigré named Karbalāʾī who ran it with members of his own family and in collaboration with a number of Russian officials.

Water security consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war and the post-war outlook

Russian forces have destroyed one-third of Ukraine’s freshwater storage since February 2022 to 2024. Potable, industrial and irrigation water supplies have been cut across the south and east of the country. Overall, social, economic and ecological damages are estimated in the tens of billions of $US, while the loss of Ukraine’s economic potential and necessary investments in restoration reach $600 billion. We consider the current eco-economic efficiency of irrigated crops, as well as damage to commercial and recreational fisheries including losses of littoral areas and spawning grounds. Alternative water supplies for the war-torn regions by construction of wells to tap groundwater are presented and justified; various scientific opinions and approaches to ecosystem management and options for the future reconstruction of the Kakhovka Reservoir are discussed; and, finally, strategic development options for the water sector are considered to ensure water security in the post-war development period.

Financial mechanism for labor pension formation based on the deposit book method

Subject. This article discusses the pension system in force in Russia. Objectives. The article aims to develop an algorithm for determining the labor pension amount. Methods. For the study, I used economic and mathematical research methods. Results. The article proposes to organize the payment of labor pension in the form of annuity payment based on the deposit book method. Conclusions. The labor pension amount should be formed in accordance with the accumulative principle and unambiguously determined by the amount of accumulated insurance premiums, the value of the key interest rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, and the expected period of pension receipt.

Borders, states, and armed conflicts in Europe and Northeast Asia since 1945: The moral hazard of great-power encroachments

This article discusses the significance of international borders in Europe and Northeast Asia during the Cold War (1945–1989) and after. Using the concept of ‘moral hazard’, the article examines what happens when great powers frequently violate the borders of neighboring countries without suffering adverse repercussions. Norms of sovereignty and territorial integrity are viable only if large countries are willing to uphold them most of the time. The Soviet Union used or threatened to use military force against East European countries on numerous occasions (1953, 1956, 1968, and 1980–1981) with impunity. The Russian Federation adopted a broadly similar policy toward neighboring countries that had been republics of the Soviet Union until 1991. Russian forces in Georgia, Moldova, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Ukraine served as instruments of Russian hegemony in those countries. Until 2014, Western governments made little or no effort to deter or counter Russian military encroachments in neighboring republics. By the principle of moral hazard, leaders in the Kremlin came to believe that they could act with a free hand in the former USSR.

The application of force plates and the community of experts in Russian dissertations for 2016–2022

In 90 Russian dissertation studies with the usage of force plates, which were performed in 48 scientific organizations, more than 20 thousand healthy participants and patients took part. They were supervised by 89 specialists, who, together with 167 official opponents and representatives of 43 leading organizations, can be classified as the corps of experts in this scientific field. The appropriate list is presented for the first time.
 Dissertation samples were distributed manly between clinical specialties (over 70%) and pedagogical specialties (approximately 20%). 14 different models (brands) of force plates were used in the dissertations. 6 of them were foreign, and the most frequently used ― in 55 dissertations ― were Russian force plates of three brands registered as medical devices, of which only one was an officially approved Measurement Device.
 In the analysis of the data obtained using the force plates, the dissertators applied 30 quantitative indices, of which "length", "speed" and "area" of the statokinesiogram were the most frequently used.
 The averaged characteristics of candidate and doctoral works in terms of the number of participants or patients included in the study, the number of sources, conclusions, etc. were represented. Interpretation of quantitative characteristics and content of dissertation works concerns comparison with the data of the analysis for the previous decade, and helps to reveal the features and the prospects of the stabilometry application.

Стратегия социально-экономического развития муниципалитета как фактор финансовой устойчивости местного бюджета (на примере Тунгокоченского муниципального округа)

The article is devoted to the study of the influence of socio-economic development strategies of municipalities of the Transbaikal Territory on the financial sustainability of local budgets. The legislative and practical foundations of strategic planning at the municipal level currently in force in Russia have revealed a sufficient number of problems, both in theory and in planning practice. The application of these principles in practice indicates that the development of strategic planning documents often does not lead to the achievement of the strategic goals laid down in them. Due to the fact that at various levels of government, considerable attention is paid to the development of strategies for the socio-economic development of both the country as a whole and each individual municipality, the issue of supplementing the strategic planning system at the municipal level is relevant. The object of the study is the strategy of socio-economic development of municipalities. The subject of the study is the influence of the socio-economic development strategy of the municipality on its budgetary sustainability. The purpose of the study is to analyze the indicators of municipal budget sustainability and substantiate the need for their compliance with the socio-economic development strategies developed in municipalities. The main objectives of the study are to identify the correspondence between the strategy of socio-economic development and the budget policy of the municipality, and to develop a model of the influence of the socio-economic strategy on the indicators of financial sustainability of the municipal budget. The study of the strategic municipal planning system revealed a lack of relationship between the socio-economic strategy and the municipal budget. The conclusions are substantiated that the strategies for the socio-economic development of municipalities developed by local governments should have as their goal not only improving the quality and standard of living of its population, increasing the attractiveness of the territory, etc., but also the financial sustainability of the local budget, which is one from sources of financing activities included in the development strategy.