Urban-rural Gradient Research Articles

Evaluating Urban Heat Islands Dynamics and Environmental Criticality in a Growing City of a Tropical Country Using Remote-Sensing Indices: The Example of Matara City, Sri Lanka

Urbanization has undeniably improved human living conditions but has also significantly altered the natural landscape, leading to increased Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects. While many studies have examined these impacts in other countries, research on this topic in Sri Lanka remains limited. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of changes in built-up areas (BAs) and Vegetation Cover (VC) on UHI and environmental criticality (EC) in Matara cityCity, Sri Lanka, utilizing Landsat data. This study employed the commonly used remote-sensing (RS) indices such as the land surface temperature (LST), the UHI Index, and the Environmental Criticality Index (ECI). Various techniques were utilized including supervised image classification, Urban–Rural Gradient Zone (URGZ) analysis, grid-based analysis, UHI profiles, and regression analysis. The results revealed that built-up areas increased by 12.21 km2, while vegetation cover decreased by 9.94 km2, and this urban expansion led to a 2.7 °C rise in mean LST over 26 years. By 2023, newly developed BA showed the highest LST and environmental criticality, with mean LST values ranging from 25 °C to 21 °C in URGZs 1 to 15 near the city center, and lower values of 15 °C to 16 °C in URGZs 40 to 47 further from the core. The correlation analysis highlighted a strong positive relationship between the NDBI and LST, underscoring the significant impact of BA expansion on LST. Consequently, high-density built-up areas are experiencing high environmental criticality. To minimize these effects, planning agencies should prioritize green urban planning strategies, particularly in high LST and environmental criticality zones. This approach can also be applied to other cities to assess the UHI and LST phenomena, with the goal of protecting the natural environment and promoting the health of urban dwellers.

Dendrochronological analyses of tree growth and climate response across an urban-rural gradient, Louisville, Kentucky

Dendrochronological analyses of tree growth and climate response across an urban-rural gradient, Louisville, Kentucky

Structural and acoustic properties of urbanized landscapes adversely affect bird communities in a tropical environment

IntroductionThe rural-urban gradient serves as a valuable context for investigating the impact of urbanization on biodiversity. While previous studies have demonstrated shifts in bird communities along this gradient, our understanding of the specific impacts of individual urban components such as man-made physical structures and anthropogenic noise along this gradient remains limited, and more so, in Afro-tropical environments.MethodEmploying the point count method, we recorded birds and also determined the levels of anthropogenic noise and physical structures, across fifteen sites along the rural-urban gradient on the Jos Plateau, Nigeria. We then investigated variations in bird communities along the urbanization gradient and assessed the influence of the two urban components -anthropogenic noise and physical structures, on bird populations.ResultsThere was a decline in bird abundance and species richness along the urbanization gradient. Similarly, species common to all the urbanization categories (species present at least at one point in rural, suburban, and urban) also exhibited a decrease in abundance. The suburban area showed a greater similarity in bird community composition to the urban area than the rural area. Notably, as the level of urban development increased, numerous bird species associated with undisturbed sites gradually vanished. Both anthropogenic noise and physical structures exhibited significant negative effects on bird abundance and species richness. Interestingly, we did not find evidence to suggest that the impact of anthropogenic noise was dependent on the level of physical structures. Anthropogenic noise had a significant negative relationship with bird abundance and species richness at all levels of physical structures.DiscussionWe provide evidence that bird abundance and species richness respond negatively to urbanization-related increase in anthropogenic noise and physical structures. That the impact of anthropogenic noise on birds was independent of physical structures suggests that birds in reserved areas, including urban green areas with fewer human activities may equally be affected by noise as are birds in human-dominated areas, if noise sources are near. Overall, our research underscores the detrimental consequences of anthropogenic habitat modification, particularly the alteration of structural and acoustic properties, and emphasizes the importance of preserving undisturbed habitats and implementing ecologically mindful urban planning strategies to safeguard bird communities in the Afro-tropics.

Addressing bias in national population density models: Focusing on rural Senegal.

Knowing where people are is crucial for policymakers, particularly for the efficient allocation of resources in their country and the development of effective, people-centred policies. However, rural population distribution maps suffer from biases related to the type of dataset used to predict population density, such as the use of nighttime lights datasets in areas without electricity. This renders widely used datasets irrelevant in rural areas and biases nationwide models towards urban areas. To compensate for such biases, we aim at understanding the importance and relationship between water-related covariates and population densities in a random forest model across the urban-rural gradient. By extending a recursive feature elimination framework, we show that commonly used covariates are only selected when modelling the whole country. However, once the highest density areas are removed, water-related characteristics (especially distance to boreholes) become important covariates of population density outside of densely populated areas. This has important implications for modelling population in rural areas, including for a better estimation of the size of remote communities. When seeking to produce country-level population maps, we encourage further studies to explicitly account for rural areas by considering the urban-rural gradient and encourage the use of water-related datasets.

Dynamic response of flood risk in urban-township complex to future uncertainty

Flooding has emerged as a critical global issue exacerbated by climate change and urban development. This study addresses the significant spatial heterogeneity in flood severity along the urban-rural gradient, which is influenced by variations in ecohydrological and geochemical structures. Despite the importance of understanding the dynamic evolution of flood risk under different disaster scenarios, its influence by urban-rural gradients and response to future uncertainty remain inadequately explored. By developing a comprehensive vulnerability and hazard index framework integrated with a hydrodynamic model, this study not only simulated the dynamic evolution of Urban Vulnerability Value (UV) and Township Hazard Value (TH) during heavy rainfall events but also highlighted their wider implications for flood risk management under future uncertainty. The findings revealed that urban vulnerability exhibited a stable and concentrated distribution, while township hazard values demonstrated significant sensitivity and variability. Notably, the study underscored that under future uncertainty, flood risk responses are likely to intensify (UV and TH increasing by 2.4 and 2.7 times, respectively), with township areas becoming more sensitive to flooding. These insights contributed to a deeper understanding of how urban-rural gradient influences dynamic flood risk, offering valuable guidance for effective flood management strategies in similar regions.

Bat microfilariae in the cityscape: a transmission tale between bats, mites, and bat flies

Litomosoides includes filarial nematodes capable of infecting various vertebrate species. While Litomosoides has been extensively studied in rodents, research on its association with bats remains limited. The transmission dynamics of this parasite are complex, involving moving between different invertebrate hosts before reaching the final host. Most investigations concerning microfilariae have concentrated on their morphological characteristics, with scant attention paid to ecological aspects, particularly in human-altered landscapes. This study represents the first known documentation of Litomosoides in bats within an urban environment. It investigates their response to urbanization in their interaction with the synanthropic bat Artibeus jamaicensis and its ectoparasites. The objective was to explore the influence of urban landscapes on Litomosoides prevalence in synanthropic hosts. Blood samples were collected along urban-rural gradients, and parasite presence was confirmed through direct observation in blood smears and PCR. Phylogenetic analysis based on the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 gene (COX1), which exhibited robust support values, indicates that the microfilaria found in A. jamaicensis is closely related to Litomosoides chandleri. However, it also suggests the possibility of an unidentified, and therefore potentially new, species within the genus Litomosoides. Additionally, Litomosoides DNA was detected in Periglischrus iheringi (Acari: Spinturnicidae) and in the bat fly Trichobius intermedius collected from the bat. The parasite sequences obtained from these three interacting species exhibited a genetic distance as low as 0.002. The highest prevalences were recorded in forested areas (28.6%) compared with urban areas (21.2%). However, within the urban landscape, prevalence varied from 3.8% to 21.2%, being highest in densely built-up areas. Analysis of the urban landscape suggested that the prevalence of Litomosoides in A. jamaicensis is the result of a multifactorial and synergistic process involving ectoparasite load, host abundance, and the extent of impervious surfaces (NDBI).

Dynamic Responses of Soil Organic Carbon to Urbanization: A Global Perspective.

Rapid global urbanization has a complex impact on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Through its direct and indirect impacts on soil formation and development, urbanization greatly influences SOC stocks. However, the extent to which urbanization affects SOC stocks globally remains unclear. In this study, we utilized an urban-rural gradient approach to assess the effects of urbanization on SOC stocks at both global and national scales. First, we calculated the urbanization intensity (UI) at a 1 km scale globally, categorizing urbanization into three stages: low (0 ≤ UI ≤ 25), medium (25 < UI ≤ 75), and high (75 < UI ≤ 100). Additionally, we distinguished the contributions of natural factors and human activities and analyzed the effects of land-use changes in eight representative cities. We found the following: (1) The SOC stocks exhibit distinct trends with increasing UI, but when UI is low or high, an increase in UI is associated with decreasing SOC stocks (reductions of 6.8% and 5.4% at a depth of 30 cm; 6.4% and 3.2% at a depth of 100 cm, respectively). (2) Changes in human activities are the main drivers of SOC stock changes during urbanization. At low and medium urban intensities, the contributions of human activities reach 98% and 89%, respectively. Additionally, land-use transitions are closely correlated with SOC stock changes, particularly in areas near the urban core, across different climate zones. (3) The response of SOC to urbanization varies across climatic zones. In water-scarce arid climates, attention should be given to the negative effects of urbanization, and more targeted measures should be taken to enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of urban soils. This study provides valuable insights into the dynamic interplay between urbanization and SOC stocks, underscoring the need for tailored strategies to manage soil carbon in urban environments.

Anthropogenic Effects on Green Infrastructure Spatial Patterns in Kisangani City and Its Urban–Rural Gradient

Urban and peri-urban expansion significantly influences the spatial pattern of cities and surrounding zones. This study examines the spatial changes in green infrastructure components, specifically focusing on mature forests, short forests, and agricultural and grass lands from 1986 to 2021, using satellite imagery. Two landscape ecology indexes, the percentage of landscape (PLAND), and the largest patch index (LPI), were applied. PLAND provides insights into the proportion of habitat types, capturing overall extent, while LPI elucidates their spatial configuration. The research is conducted in a specific context of increasing urbanization and peri-urbanization in Kisangani city, DR Congo. The findings reveal a decline in both mature and short forests, respectively, from 1986 to 2021, and from 2006 to 2021 alongside a continuous expansion of agricultural and grass lands at the landscape scale. Moreover, the spatial pattern of mature and short forests exhibited significant variations across urban, peri-urban, and rural zones. In the context of 2021, in urban and peri-urban zones, mature forests account for less than 1% of the 2.25 km2 plots, against more than 35% in certain rural plots. Similarly, larger patches of mature forest in urban and peri-urban zones cover less than 0.5% of the 2.25 km2 plots, whereas they exceed 20% in rural zones. From 1986 to 2021, both mature and short forests experienced significant decline and fragmentation, particularly in urban and peri-urban zones, while agricultural and grass lands increased significantly in peri-urban and rural zones. These results raise concerns regarding the functions, services, and opportunities provided by mature and short forests in the context of global change. They also highlight the need for urban planning in Kisangani to prioritize green infrastructure preservation, focusing on maintaining forest connectivity and preventing further fragmentation. Policies should promote sustainable land use in peri-urban zones to achieve a balance between urban expansion and the provision of essential ecosystem services, thereby enhancing long-term resilience.

Context dependent preferences in prestige bias learning about vaccination in rural Namibian pastoralists

Extensive work in the social sciences suggests that vaccination decisions are subject to incentives, biases, and social learning processes, including prestige bias transmission. High status figures, like doctors and public health officials, can be effective messengers for vaccination information and uptake under certain conditions. In communities where there is significant medical mistrust and less interaction with markets and formal medical systems, prestige bias social learning may operate through different channels. Here, we examine the role of prestige bias on vaccine decisions in two ethnic groups (Himba and Herero) with varying levels of market integration and experiences with formal healthcare systems. Participants completed a ranking task, comparing the influence of four prestigious individuals on vaccine decisions and a survey on medical mistrust. Using Plackett-Luce models, we compare the influence of location, ethnic affiliation, and other covariates on rankings. A multi-level model compared the influence of those within and outside one's ethnic group, as well as specialist (doctor/healer) and generalist (chief/governor) prestige figures. Results indicate changes in the rank of prestigious individuals across the rural-urban gradient. Our results demonstrate significant variability in prestige-biased social learning about vaccine decision making. Medical mistrust did not impact rankings. Contrary to previous work, we find that whether a prestigious individual is locally prominent is more important than their expertise in the relevant domain (health and healing). These findings emphasize the need for more context-specific studies of prestige bias, which can improve our understanding of healthcare decision-making and guide public health messaging across diverse contexts.

Environmental and social impacts of shifting park-use patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from state and local park managers

Parks and protected areas offer a variety of ecosystem services and promote opportunities that enhance human health and well-being. However, these benefits may be jeopardized when overcrowding degrades environmental and social conditions in parks. The COVID-19 pandemic is assumed to have been associated with substantial increases in visitation to parks and protected areas, but patterns in use and degradation varied by site type (e.g., state versus local parks; urban versus rural). In this study, we aimed to understand how changing recreational use patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic impacted parks, and how those changes differed between state and local parks across urban-rural gradients. We distributed a survey asking state park superintendents (n = 36) and local park managers (n = 84) in the state of North Carolina to estimate the extent of environmental and social impacts in their parks both before and during the pandemic. We discovered that, based on managers’ responses, state parks were approximately 12 times more likely to experience heightened environmental impacts and 23 times more likely to experience heightened social impacts than local parks during the pandemic, even when controlling for impact levels prior to the pandemic. We found no significant differences between urban and rural parks. These findings suggest regional parks may be the most vulnerable to environmental and social disturbances during times of heightened visitation, and thus highlight a need for both more resources and more attention to governance issues for these parks. Management implicationsThis study found that state parks in North Carolina experienced more frequent social and environmental impacts, both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to local parks. This highlights the need to explore measures that can maintain state parks as sources of resilience and recovery during future crises while mitigating park impacts. Proposed strategies include:•Directing park usage to more resilient areas.•Establishing strategic partnerships between parks to enhance capacity.•Education and outreach to minimize visitor impacts.•Establishing emergency funds for parks most likely to be impacted during times of heightened visitation.•Expanding accessible greenspace in anticipation of increased visitation.

Soundscapes in Urban Green Spaces of a Megacity Across an Urban–Rural Gradient: A Case Study of Shanghai

Urban soundscapes are valuable indicators of urban biodiversity and ecosystem health. This study investigated the spatial and temporal characteristics of soundscapes in megacity green spaces and their relationship with the urban environment. An acoustic index was formulated and calculated using long-term data from Shanghai’s urban green spaces. The results show a significant increase in the acoustic index during spring and summer, peaking during these periods, while a decrease was observed from December to February, dominated by abiotic sounds. Diurnal variations indicate a rapid increase in the acoustic index at sunrise, reflecting heightened avian activity during the dawn chorus. Human interference in the urban center limited acoustic activity, whereas the outer suburbs, with their more natural environments, supported greater acoustic richness.

The diversity and nesting preferences of birds along an urban-rural gradient in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

The diversity and nesting preferences of birds along an urban-rural gradient in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

Attributes of private yards along a rural-urban gradient in China highlight opportunities and limits to increase trees to benefit biodiversity and climate

Attributes of private yards along a rural-urban gradient in China highlight opportunities and limits to increase trees to benefit biodiversity and climate

Spatial patterns and driving factors of plant diversity along the urban-rural gradient in the context of urbanization in Zhengzhou, China.

Plant diversity is the basis for human survival and development, directly affecting the function and stability of urban ecosystems. Its distribution pattern and causes have been a central issue in ecological and landscape gardening research. Rapid urbanization in Zhengzhou City has led to the fragmentation of urban green spaces and damage to ecosystems, seriously affecting urban biodiversity conservation. Understanding the distribution pattern of plant diversity in the region and its relationship with environmental factors is crucial for maintaining and enhancing urban plant diversity. Plant data from 178 sample plots in the built-up area of Zhengzhou City were collected and combined with environmental factors, and the characteristics of plant diversity, richness patterns, and their main environmental explanations in Zhengzhou City were explored. Results showed that there were 596 plant species belonging to 357 genera and 110 families in the study area. There were five dominant families and four dominant genera. Four distinct spatial patterns of plant diversity were identified along the urban-rural gradient. Urbanization factors such as GDP per capita, house prices, and imperviousness within 500 m from the patch significantly influenced plant diversity. There was an imbalance between the spatial pattern of plant diversity and application of urban landscape greening in Zhengzhou City. Future studies should focus on the application of native plants, curb plant homogenization, and reduce anthropogenic interference, which are conducive to protecting and enhancing urban plant diversity. These results can provide a basis for understanding the distribution pattern and influence mechanism of urbanization factors on plant diversity and serve as a reference for policymakers and planners of plant diversity conservation in Zhengzhou City.

Unveiling urbanization effects on trees outside forests along the urban-rural gradient in megacity Bengaluru

Rapid urbanization has caused significant changes along the urban-rural gradient, leading to a variety of landscapes that are mainly shaped by human activities. This dynamic interplay also influences the distribution and characteristics of trees outside forests (TOF). Understanding the pattern of these trees will support informed decision-making in urban planning, in conservation strategies, and altogether in sustainable land management practices in the urban context. In this study, we employed a deep learning-based object detection model and high resolution satellite imagery to identify 1.3 million trees with bounding boxes within a 250 ​km2 research transect spanning the urban-rural gradient of Bengaluru, a megacity in Southern India. Additionally, we developed an allometric equation to estimate diameter at breast height (DBH) from the tree crown diameter (CD) derived from the detected bounding boxes. Our study focused on analyzing variations in tree density and tree size along this gradient. The findings revealed distinct patterns: the urban domain displayed larger tree crown diameters (mean: 8.87 ​m) and DBH (mean: 43.78 ​cm) but having relatively low tree density (32 trees per hectare). Furthermore, with increasing distance from the city center, tree density increased, while the mean tree crown diameter and mean tree basal area decreased, showing clear differences of tree density and size between the urban and rural domains in Bengaluru. This study offers an efficient methodology that helps generating instructive insights into the dynamics of TOF along the urban-rural gradient. This may inform urban planning and management strategies for enhancing green infrastructure and biodiversity conservation in rapidly urbanizing cities like Bengaluru.

Community profiles in northeastern and central Pennsylvania characterized by distinct social, natural, food, and physical activity environments and their relation to type 2 diabetes.

Understanding geographic disparities in type 2 diabetes (T2D) requires approaches that account for communities' multidimensional nature. In an electronic health record nested case-control study, we identified 15,884 cases of new-onset T2D from 2008 to 2016, defined using encounter diagnoses, medication orders, and laboratory test results, and frequency-matched controls without T2D (79,400; 65,069 unique persons). We used finite mixture models to construct community profiles from social, natural, physical activity, and food environment measures. We estimated T2D odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using logistic generalized estimating equation models, adjusted for sociodemographic variables. We examined associations with the profiles alone and combined them with either community type based on administrative boundaries or Census-based urban/rural status. We identified four profiles in 1069 communities in central and northeastern Pennsylvania along a rural-urban gradient: "sparse rural," "developed rural," "inner suburb," and "deprived urban core." Urban areas were densely populated with high physical activity resources and food outlets; however, they also had high socioeconomic deprivation and low greenness. Compared with "developed rural," T2D onset odds were higher in "deprived urban core" (1.24, CI = 1.16-1.33) and "inner suburb" (1.10, CI = 1.04-1.17). These associations with model-based community profiles were weaker than when combined with administrative boundaries or urban/rural status. Our findings suggest that in urban areas, diabetogenic features overwhelm T2D-protective features. The community profiles support the construct validity of administrative-community type and urban/rural status, previously reported, to evaluate geographic disparities in T2D onset in this geography.

Metal concentration in honeybees along an urbanization gradient in Central Mexico

Urbanization is rapidly increasing worldwide, leading to rising levels of pollution, one of the major drivers of environmental change; yet little is known about the relationship between urbanization intensity and pollution levels in pollinator taxa. Toxic metals are among the most common contaminants in urban environments, but few data exist on their presence in the flora and fauna of cities in Latin America, one of the world's most urbanized and biologically diverse regions. In this study, we used an urban-rural gradient approach to analyze the relationship between the concentrations of eleven metals present in adult honeybees (Apis mellifera) and the degree of urbanization within twelve landscapes in the metropolitan area of Pachuca, Hidalgo, which forms part of the megalopolis of Mexico City. Metal concentrations were compared with previously reported values contrasting honeybees from urban and rural areas after standardizing urbanization levels among published reports. The concentrations of Ag, Cr, Cu, and Zn in honeybees increased significantly with the degree of urbanization. Urbanization was not found to influence the levels of Al, Ba, Cd, Mn, and Sr in honeybees. The maximum concentrations of six metals in our urban sites (Al, Ba, Cd, Cu, Mn, and Sr) were higher than the maximum values reported for bees in other urban areas. The concentrations of two metals measured in our study (Cr and Zn) were within the range of values previously published for urban areas. Compared to other studies, we did not detect Pb in the body of honeybees. We conclude that the concentrations of Ag, Cr, Cu, and Zn present in honeybees are a quantitative reflection of the degree of urbanization in central Mexico. Our results highlight the need to monitor metal emission sources in this and other areas and investigate their effects on bees and other pollinator taxa.

New biodiversity index for anthropized and natural areas

The Earth suffers increasing pressures that modify the composition of habitats and globalization fragments its ecosystems while introducing species from diverse places. The result is the emergence of increasingly monolithic environments and increased entropy because foreign species can displace natural biodiversity. To estimate the biodiversity of ecosystems, an error is made if exotic species are excluded and an error is also made if they are included in the calculation as if they were natural. To solve the problem, the methodology consisted of deducing the Natural Biodiversity Index (NB’). The results demonstrate that NB’ detected the urban-rural gradient. The NB’ is projected as an indicator applicable in populations of different organisms, easy to calculate and interpretable and translatable into a probabilistic discourse. Furthermore, the NB’ index could be a complement to human development indices that want to relativize industrial development and evaluate the pressure exerted by the most advanced human societies on the degradation of their ecosystems.

The multiscale response of global cropland cropping intensity to urban expansion

CONTEXTUrban expansion(UE) and multiple cropping(MC) are key factors in anthropogenic impacts on global environmental change. However, the multi-scale response patterns of UE and MC have not yet been revealed, and how urbanization affects cropland intensification is still not deeply explored. OBJECTIVEThis study examines the spatial and temporal trends in global UE and MC and analyses the multi-scale response patterns of both. METHODSThe GEE (Google Earth Engine) platform was used to count global cropland cropping intensity (CCI) and impervious surface rasters on an image-by-image basis, while GIS was employed for spatial analyses, and the generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to inscribe variable response trajectories. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONThe global multiple cropping index(MCI) increased significantly (by 4.1 %) over the period 2001–2019, with growth in double- and triple-cropped cropland dominating this change. Double cropping, as a widespread global farming strategy, has led to a shift towards the intensification of agriculture, with countries in the northern hemisphere contributing more. Global UE significantly expands to twice the baseline level at an average annual growth rate of 2. 42 × 104 km2 over the period 2001–2019, with the expansion of world-class urban agglomerations in China, the United States and Europe dominates this trend. The spatial clustering of MC and UE has continued to intensify, with high-intensity cropping strategies progressively clustering towards areas of significant UE, and this tendency has a clear decreasing urban-rural gradient effect. The global CCI grows significantly and non-linearly with UE, but an important inflection point in the growth trajectory has occurred under the influence of threshold effects. Developed countries tend to be more flexible in their cropping intensity strategies as they move forward with urbanization. There is a clear increasing effect of the urban-rural gradient in the degree of non-linearity in the response of urbanization and cropping intensity. SIGNIFICANCEThe results of the study contribute to the understanding of the complex spatial and temporal coupling mechanisms between UE and MC, and provide useful insights for the development of trade-offs between urbanization and maturity strategies.

Spatially Explicit Analysis of Landscape Structures, Urban Growth, and Economic Dynamics in Metropolitan Regions

Assuming that settlement morphologies and landscape structures are the result of economic transformations, the present study illustrates a statistical framework investigating metropolitan growth due to the inherent changes in landscape configurations vis à vis socio-demographic functions. Focusing on the evolution of their spatial drivers over time, metropolitan development was studied by adopting land parcels (or ‘patches’, as they are referred to in the ecological literature) as the elementary analysis unit—with the individual surface area and a specific shape indicator as the dependent variables and background socioeconomic attributes as predictors of landscape change over time. We specifically ran a Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) testing the spatial dependence of the size and shape of landscape parcels on a vast ensemble of socioeconomic factors in a dense region (metropolitan Athens, Greece) with natural landscapes exposed to increasing human pressure. To investigate the spatial direction and intensity of the settlement expansion and landscape change, local regressions using the parcel area and fractal index (perimeter-to-area ratio) as the dependent variables and the elevation, distance from selected economic nodes, transport infrastructures, and natural amenities as the predictors were run separately for 1990 and 2018, representative of, respectively, a mono-centric configuration and a moderately polycentric organization of economic spaces. In a strictly mono-centric setting (1990), the parcel size showed a linear dependence on the distance from business districts, elevation, and wealth. Changes in the relationship between the parcel size and spatial (economic and non-economic) drivers may suggest a latent process of settlement de-concentration, and a possible shift toward polycentric development (2018), as documented in earlier studies. By integrating socioeconomic and ecological dimensions of landscape analysis and land evaluation, the empirical results of this study outline the increased complexity of dispersed landscape structures within dense metropolitan regions and along urban–rural gradients in Europe.