Rural Fertility Research Articles

The abolition of People’s Communes and fertility decline in rural China

This study investigates the impact of the abolition of People’s Communes in the early 1980s on rural fertility in China. Exploiting the staggered implementation of agricultural decollectivization, we show that decollectivization led to a significant decline in rural fertility, independent of the impact of family planning policies. Counties with higher levels of egalitarianism during the commune period experienced a sharper fertility decline following decollectivization, indicating that the elimination of egalitarian income distribution is the key mechanism behind this fertility decline. We find no evidence supporting the alternative hypothesis that the fertility decline was due to increased opportunity costs of childbearing associated with higher agricultural productivity after decollectivization.

Рождаемость городского и сельского населения в постсоветской России: региональные тренды

Fertility – a quantitative expression of the intensity of childbearing in a population – is one of the most important socio-economic parameters of the development of society. Its spatial and temporal characteristics have key importance for regional development. Based on an analysis of the total fertility rate for 79 regions of Russia during 1993–2022, the characteristics of the fertility of the urban and rural population, which are reproduced regardless of the territorial grouping of the regions, were identified. The total fertility rates were calculated for groups of regions allocated according to the administrative- territorial division of the Russian Federation and depending on the birth rate in real generations of women. Regardless of the grouping of regions, it was found that the birth rate of the urban population began to increase significantly already in the first period of growth (2000– 2006), associated with an improvement in the overall socio-economic level. The rate of its increase doubled during the second growth period (2007–2015), associated with the institution of maternity capital. At the same time, the birth rate of the rural population showed no signs of growth in general during the first period of growth but showed twice the rate of increase compared to the urban population during the second period of growth. The rate of decline in rural fertility in both the first recession period (1993–1999) and the second (2015–2022) was on average twice that of the urban population, indicating the distinctive vulnerability of rural fertility

Suburban fertility and the role of local contexts in a Mediterranean country: A spatial exercise

Assuming spatial fertility as contextual to the development stage of a given region, this study formulates an interpretative framework integrating small-scale fertility variations with metropolitan cycles and economic downturns. Using spatial econometrics, spatial trends in a gross fertility rate were investigated along a sequence of economic expansions and recessions, distinguishing urban, suburban, and rural settlements in 51 Greek prefectures. Suburban fertility overpassed urban fertility, being in turn higher than rural fertility in several prefectures. Urban fertility was higher with economic expansion and declined with recession. The reverse pattern was observed for suburban fertility – increasing with crisis and assuming a greater spatial heterogeneity. By documenting a differential response of fertility to economic downturns and metropolitan cycles, our work suggests that spatial fertility divides are temporary outcomes of a specific ensemble of socioeconomic forces underlying regional growth.

Responsibility, social aspirations, and contemporary low fertility: a case study of rural West Bengal, India

ABSTRACT West Bengal, a middle-ranking Indian state in terms of development indicators with more than two-thirds rural population, is on the verge of becoming a lowest low fertility zone. While the rural TFR (Total Fertility Rate) of West Bengal (1.6 births/woman) is on par with many developed countries (Norway, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, etc.), its developmental stage is not—which poses a paradox. Using data from a primary survey of 405 mothers aged 15–35 years alongside focus group data of parents, the present study employs a society-specific approach to explain contemporary low fertility in rural West Bengal. We argue that the presence of high aspirations for children in an economically insecure setting initiates a distinctive sense of parental responsibility that generates a unique local socio-ecology of low fertility not previously observed in the context of rural fertility decline in India. Responsibility-laden aspirations toward children and reasoned-rational deliberations regarding fertility outcomes act as subliminal motives to have a small family, challenging common assumptions regarding the relationship between economic hardship, rurality, and fertility.

DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL FACTORS OF RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE: TRENDS IN CHANGE

The article examines the key demographic trends and dynamics of social infrastructure development in rural areas of Ukraine in historical retrospect (1959-2021). The regional specificity of rural population depopulation is determined with an emphasis on sex and age structure transformations, and the regions are grouped by the nature of changes in rural fertility and mortality. The dynamics and peculiarities of the development of the social sphere of life support, which is considered as the basis for the preservation and reproduction of human capital in rural areas, are analyzed. The novelty of the study is the analysis of the long-term depopulation demographic trend, as well as changes in the development of social infrastructure in the Soviet and post-Soviet periods, with the presentation of examples of mapping schemes illustrating these processes.

Male Fertility and Internal Migration in Rural and Urban Sub-Saharan Africa

Subnational differences in male fertility within sub-Saharan African countries have not been explored, nor the differences in male fertility according to migration status been sufficiently probed. We study divergences in rural and urban male fertility and investigate the relationship between male fertility and migration across 30 sub-Saharan African countries. We employ 67 Demographic and Health Surveys to estimate completed cohort fertility among men aged 50–64 according to migration status. Overall, we find that urban male fertility has declined faster than rural male fertility, widening the gap between the sectors. Rural-urban migrant men have lower fertility than their rural non-migrant counterparts. Men migrating within the rural sector have similarly high fertility as rural non-migrants, while urban–urban migrant men have even lower fertility than non-migrant urban men. Using country-fixed effects models, we find that among men with at least secondary education, differences in completed cohort fertility by migration status are widest. When we consider the timing of migration in relation to the timing of the birth of the last child, we observe that migrant men are a select group, having around two children less than non-migrant rural men. There is also evidence of adaptation to destination, though to a lesser extent. Furthermore, migration within the rural sector does not seem to be disruptive to fathering. These results indicate that rural-to-urban migration has the potential to delay rural fertility decline, and that urban male fertility is likely to decline further, especially as the proportion of urban-to-urban migration increases.

Demographic Change and the Urban–Rural Divide: Understanding the Role of Density and Agglomeration in Fertility Transitions

Assuming fertility variations across urban–rural gradients, our study focuses on the traditional polarization in urban and rural fertility, offering a refined interpretation of demographic processes associated with population density. More specifically, we tested the intimate relationship between local fertility and population density, comparing the outcomes of a classical urban–rural model (reflecting a linear relationship between the two variables) with those of a more complex quadratic model (implying the so-called ‘suburban fertility hypothesis’) in Greece. We considered fertility dynamics in three districts (urban, suburban, and rural) of 51 Greek prefectures for the last two decades (2000–2009 and 2010–2019) and controlled for the diverging impact of local contexts at different population density levels. Taken as a measure of ‘maturity’ of regional systems, urban fertility surpassed rural fertility in almost all prefectures of Greece. An additional sign of maturity in metropolitan systems indicates that suburban birth rates are higher than urban birth rates in prefectures with high population density (Athens, Thessaloniki, Heraklion, and Patras). The regression outcomes document a specific response of fertility to regional development, evidencing a spatially differentiated shift from classical urban–rural disparities toward a more complex model with the emergence of suburban poles. From this perspective, fertility divides reflect the evolutions of socioeconomic forces (more or less rapidly) along the urban gradient.

Razlike u kohortnom fertilitetu prema migracijskom obilježju: slučaj Grada Zagreba

Razlike u kohortnom fertilitetu prema migracijskom obilježju: slučaj Grada Zagreba

Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018

Fertility is a spatially non-stationary property of regional demographic systems. Despite the wealth of quantitative (micro–macro) information delineating short-term population dynamics in advanced economies, the contribution of economic downturns to local fertility has still been under-investigated along urban–rural gradients, especially in low-fertility contexts. Recent studies have assumed suburban fertility rates as systematically higher than urban and rural fertility rates. This assumption (hereafter known as the “suburban fertility hypothesis”) has been grounded on stylized facts and spatial regularities in advanced economies that reflect a significant role of both macro (contextual) and micro (behavioral) factors that positively influence fertility in suburban locations. To test the suburban fertility hypothesis at the macro-scale, the present study compares gross fertility rates from seven regional units of the Athens metropolitan area between 1991 and 2018. A refined spatial analysis of gross fertility rates during an economic expansion (1999–2008) and recession (2009–2018) was carried out in 115 urban, suburban, and rural municipalities of the same area. Experiencing sequential waves of economic expansion and recession, Athens’ socio-demographic dynamics were considered a sort of “quasi-experiment” for Southern Europe, linking late suburbanization with the multiple impacts of (rapid) economic downturns. Compared with both urban and rural locations, a higher fertility rate in suburban municipalities (15–20 km away from downtown Athens) was observed during the study period. However, a subtle distinction was observed during the economic expansion versus the recession. In the first period, the highest birth rates were recorded in industrial locations west of Athens, hosting economically disadvantaged communities with a relatively young population structure. With the recession, the highest fertility was associated with residential and service-specialized (wealthier) locations east of Athens, attracting resident population from neighboring areas, and better responding to crisis. The results of our study document how recent urban expansion and economic downturns have intrinsically shaped fertility dynamics, with implications for urban sustainability and social cohesion of metropolitan regions.

Problems and prospects of human potential development in rural areas of Ukraine

The subject of the research is theoretical and practical aspects of the formation, development and growth of human potential in rural areas of Ukraine. The purpose of the work is to identify the problems of forming the human potential of rural areas of the country and substantiate strategic guidelines and promising areas and means of solving them to ensure its growth and sustainable development. Methodological basis of the article is the use of modern theoretical provisions of the economy of the national economy, rural territories, the reproduction of human potential; General scientific and special methods of knowledge: demographic, statistical-economic, economic-mathematical, graphic. Results of work. It is determined that the human potential of rural areas of Ukraine is formed by demographic factors, employment and employment, income level, quality and social and environmental conditions of life. However, it is the narrowed natural reproduction, high unemployment and low incomes of rural residents that cause its deterioration and degradation. It is found that these and other problems should be solved by implementing state programs to support rural fertility, developing alternative activities and increasing employment, social and environmental development of rural areas. The field of application of results. The conclusions and suggestions of the article can be used by local governments, rural communities, public organizations, charitable foundations in solving problems of human development in rural areas, educational and scientific institutions in educational and scientific activities. Conclusions. Financial sources for the implementation of proposals can be monetary and other resources of agricultural enterprises, rural residents, rural communities, targeted state programs, public organizations and charitable foundations. Public-private partnership, social responsibility, social innovation, information and digital technologies should be used as tools for achieving these goals. When determining priorities for implementing these measures in practice, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of each locality, the region where they are located, as well as the decisions of rural communities. This will contribute to the revival of rural areas, increase the prestige of rural life, preserve the rural way of life, expand the reproduction of human capital and personal growth of human potential.

Births and the City: Urban Cycles and Increasing Socio‐Spatial Heterogeneity in a Low‐Fertility Context

AbstractAnalysis of fertility trends along urban gradients contributes to assess socio‐demographic change at larger scales and the new geography of metropolitan growth at smaller scales. At larger scales, urban fertility was systematically lower than rural fertility; at smaller scales, suburbs were found to have higher fertility than central districts and the neighbouring rural areas. However, fertility divides have rarely been re‐contextualised in a long‐term perspective, considering the influence of exogenous factors that change over time with urban cycles. Assuming that spatial fertility variations are contextual to the development stage of a given region, the present study goes beyond the traditional ‘urban‐suburban‐rural’ divide and provides a long‐term vision that integrates small‐scale fertility variations and city life cycles. The study investigates spatial trends in a fertility index along a cycle from urbanisation to re‐urbanisation in a low‐fertility European context (Athens, Greece) using a multi‐scale analysis framework. The empirical findings of this study demonstrate that rural fertility was systematically lower than urban fertility apart from a short time interval (1950s). Fertility in urban locations was the highest during earlier stages of urbanisation. In suburban locations, fertility increased during late suburbanisation, stabilising (or declining slightly) with counter‐urbanisation. Re‐urbanisation was associated with a greater spatial heterogeneity in fertility rates. By documenting a differential response of fertility to urban cycles, our study re‐frames the relationship between natural population dynamics and metropolitan transitions, concluding that regional fertility divides are temporary outcomes of a specific ensemble of socio‐economic forces underlying a given urban model.

Rural-urban differentials in fertility levels and fertility preferences in West Bengal, India: a district-level analysis.

Fertility in West Bengal is one of the lowest in India, and this relies heavily on the use of traditional methods of contraception. Social scientists and demographers have pointed to the historical role of the diffusion process of adhering to a small family size. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Kolkata district, the state capital, is the lowest in the country, and has been a centre of low fertility historically. However, stark differences in rural-urban fertility rates have existed over the last few decades in West Bengal, but these have now started to narrow. This study aimed to capture the macro-level rural-urban differences in fertility levels and preferences in the West Bengal, and understand how socioeconomic factors affect these. Data were drawn from the Census of India (2011) and NFHS-4 (2015-16). Using census data and the Reverse-Surviving Method, the TFR of West Bengal was estimated to be 1.9, varying between 2.1 and 1.7 in rural and urban areas. The rural-urban gap in the district-level fertility rates was prominent, specifically in districts with higher levels of fertility. Kolkata, Hugli and North Twenty-Four Parganas had the lowest-low fertility (TFR = <1.5). Fewer than half of women with only one living child wanted further children, and this was somewhat higher in rural areas. Around 40% of women had achieved their desired number of children. However, a substantial proportion (43.1%) had a lower number of children than desired, varying between 45.9% and 41.7% in urban and rural areas, respectively. Contraception use, female education and age at marriage, along with the other socioeconomic factors, had a greater influence on rural fertility rates than on urban counterparts in the districts of West Bengal. Further research should be directed at understanding the contemporary fertility decline as well as the gap between ideal and desired number of children, specifically in those districts with very low fertility rates.

Progression to second and third births in rural Jilin, China: trends and covariates.

"Using data from the 1985 Survey on Rural Fertility and Living Standards, this study examines the patterns and covariates of progression to second and third births in rural areas of Jilin Province, China." Factors considered include sex of living children, mortality of previous children, women's occupation and education, and year of birth. (SUMMARY IN JPN)

Health knowledge, attitudes and practices of family planning service providers and clients in Akwapim North District of Ghana.

BackgroundFamily planning services help save lives by reducing women’s exposure to risks of child birth and abortion. While family planning services provide measures to prevent unintended pregnancies and time the formation of families, the acceptability and coverage is still very low worldwide. Some of the reasons for this include poor quality of service, unavailability of range of methods, fear of opposition from partners, side effects and health concerns among others.About 40 % of the world’s 215,000 annual deaths in childbirth occur in the Sub-Saharan region. In Ghana, urban–rural fertility differences range from two to three children. The acceptability and coverage of family planning are still low and in the study area in particular.MethodsWe sought to examine factors that contribute to low acceptability and coverage of family planning services in a sub-urban community with a design of quantitative cross-sectional. Ethical approval was given by the Ghana Health Service. Midwives and community health nurses who provide family planning services were interviewed. Exit-interview was also conducted with women receiving a variety of outpatient services.ResultsMost of the women in this study (48.7 %) were in the 25–34 age range and were either married (42.8 %) or cohabiting (40.5 %). Majority of these women (67.7 %) have middle/Junior high level of formal education with a modal parity of two. Sixty eight (68) clients were identified as current family planning users. About 6.0 % and 4.5 % were dissatisfied about auditory and visual privacy during counselling respectively. This was confirmed by providers who attributed it to inappropriate facility layout. Most of the clients (79.1 %) were not given educational materials although 88.8 % were talked to about family planning and this could be due to unavailability of these hand-outs.Though clients show satisfaction of services received, providers did not follow standard protocols with as much as 73.7 % faced with challenges in provision of services which were attributed to improper facility layout and lack of furniture. About 77.2 % were willing to provide short term methods, while 91.2 % wanted to provide long term methods. As much as 93.3 % of the women said they would have liked providers give more detailed information on family planning. While most of the women (88.3 %) used injectables, only 6.1 % and 0.9 % used Implants and IUD respectively.ConclusionsFinding ways to improve client privacy through good facility layout will ensure visual and auditory privacy to enhance family planning service provision and uptake. Continuous competency training will assist providers design innovative action plans and meet client satisfaction needs.

The peculiarities of demographic aging in the northern regions of Russia

This article considers the features of the aging of the Russian population in various periods. It has been found that the Russian model has for a long time been distinguished by a birth-rate decline and a low life expectancy of the population; however, the increase in the life expectancy in recent years brings Russia to an aging model that is typical for developed countries. At the same time, the peculiarities of the demographic history currently contribute to the acceleration of aging rates, while the migration inflow from the former Soviet republics, in contrast, retards them. The characteristics of demographic aging in northern regions of the country, which is characterized by high aging rates of a still relatively young rural population, have been developed. Based on the example of the Republic of Komi, the rural aging features, which are determined by a significant lag in the life expectancy of the rural population with a definite narrowing of the gap between the urban and rural fertility models and a reduction of the migration of rural residents in the 1990s–2000s, have been considered. It was proven that economically the acceleration of aging rates of Russia’s population does not constitute as serious threat as is commonly believed. The social aspects of aging that are associated with the low quality of life of the elderly are more important.

From Health Service Delivery to Family Planning: The Changing Impact of Health Clinics on Fertility in Rural Iran

AbstractAfter a decade of pronatal policies, in 1989 the Iranian government reversed itself and launched an ambitious program to control population growth. In the subsequent 15 years the average number of births per rural woman dropped from more than seven to the replacement level. We evaluate the impact of health clinics on rural fertility, distinguishing between their effect when they delivered only health services and when they also provided family planning. We use the exogenous variation in the timing of the construction of health clinics across rural Iran to identify their impact on the timing of birth for different parities. We also use the policy reversal in 1989 to delineate the function of the clinics in each year of their operation—that is, health versus health and family planning. Using individual birth histories, we estimate the impact of the clinics on the hazard of births during these different phases. Our findings indicate that, contrary to prevalent accounts that give the lion’s share of t...

Population Density and Fertility in Farm Households: A Study of the Millennium Development Authority Zones in Ghana

Agriculture is mainly a rural preoccupation, and about three quarters of the population growth in developing countries emanate from agricultural households. Some demographers posit that the agricultural system affects birth rates; in addition, population pressures might put stress on agricultural land in farming communities. This paper focuses on the population to land ratio in the Millennium Development Authority (MiDA) Enumeration Areas (EAs) in Ghana and tackles the important question: Do households adjust to an increasing population/land ratio by having fewer children? The authors explore this theme in the context of rural population density and fertility in the three MiDA zones, drawing on data collected in 23 EAs in Ghana in 2008. The results suggest that fertility in the MiDA zones can be affected by density if nothing is done to regulate population density. The regression estimates for the pooled data show that all the coefficients are negative and statistically significant at the 0.05 level or better. Thus, children ever born is inversely correlated with density, agricultural production, female literacy and the trend variable (year). The estimates from the cross-sectional data as well as the spatial coefficient were consistent with those of the pooled data. The results under various model specifications are stable. We find from the Cox model that areas with higher education levels and a lower share of individuals working in agriculture, both correlated with land use. Agricultural production has at most a modest independent effect on fertility. Our findings suggest that population density has a reasonable inhibiting effect on fertility in the MiDA Zones.

The Effect of Urbanization on China’s Fertility

The relationship between urbanization and fertility decline is known to be inverse in developed countries. However, the nature of this relationship in developing countries that already have relatively low fertilities is not well-understood. This study aims to illustrate how much urbanization contributed to China’s fertility decline between 1982 and 2008 and forecasts how much it can contribute to future reductions in fertility. The study examines changes in the total fertility rate (TFR) at both the national and provincial levels, given regional differences in the urbanization rate. The results show that changes in rural fertility behavior accounted for most of the decline in the national TFR between 1982 and 2008. This finding suggests that official birth control policies were instrumental in curbing China’s population growth. However, urbanization was responsible for about 22% of the decrease in TFR during this period, and its effect was especially important during the latter years (2001–2008). In most provinces, urbanization associated with a decline in provincial-level fertility. The forecasts indicate that urbanization will become the primary factor behind future declines in national fertility. Given the negative effect of urbanization on the TFR, it is possible to relax the one-child policy without having adverse implications for population growth.

The uniqueness of the Ethiopian demographictransition within sub-Saharan Africa:multiple responses to population pressure,and preconditions for rural fertility declineand capturing the demographic dividend

The findings of our new book on population and development in the second largest country, Ethiopia, are presented. We highlight its uniqueness in demographic transitions among countries in sub-Saharan African. Ethiopia has the largest rural-urban fertility gap (with below replacement fertility for Addis Ababa), the lowest maternal health service coverage by far, the highest percentage of illiterate mothers, the largest number of food insecure people, and 83% of the population concentrated mainly in densely populated rural areas. We present a new framework for the study of both poverty and development-driven causes and demographic responses to frequent hazards common in the fragile Horn of Africa. Multiple vulnerabilities and responses are rigorously documented, with migration and off-farm labor mobility, female education, delayed marriage, and lower family size norms predisposing a predicted acceleration of the rural fertility decline. We propose numerous policy and research implications to evaluate progress on what may now be reachable 2015 population policy targets in TFR and CPR, and to prepare for a potential demographic dividend.

Family planning and fertility decline in rural Iran: the impact of rural health clinics

During the first few years of the Islamic Revolution of 1979, and aided by pro-natal government policies, Iranian fertility was on the rise. In a reversal of its population policy, in 1989, the government launched an ambitious and innovative family planning program aimed at rural families. By 2005, the program had covered more than 90% of the rural population and the average number of births per rural woman had declined to replacement level from about 8 births in the mid 1980s. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of a particular feature of the program - health houses - on rural fertility, taking advantage of the variation in the timing of their construction across the country. We use three different methods to obtain a range of estimates for the impact of health houses on village-level fertility: difference-in-differences (DID), matching DID, and length of exposure. We find estimates of impact ranging from 4 to 20% of the decline in fertility during 1986-1996.