Magnitude Of Runoff Research Articles

A Novel Approach for Identifying and Assessing MOR‐Based CMIP6 Model for Hydrological Analysis in an Ungauged Watershed

ABSTRACTThe identification of the onset and retreat dates of the monsoon season is a crucial and intricate phenomenon, given its annual spatiotemporal variability. The monsoon season contributes significantly to rainfall, replenishing water sources and hydrological systems but causes hydrological extremes, especially for the high‐altitude watersheds in Southeast Asia. Global Circulation Model (GCM)‐Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)‐based rainfall and temperature data are helpful for adequately representing present and future climate scenarios. However, the usability of uncorrected GCM‐CMIP6 datasets needs to be assessed regionally. This study focuses on identifying the best‐suited GCM‐CMIP6 based on the monsoon onset (MO) and retreat (MR) dates along with other climatological temporal parameters. A numerical definition for MO and MR has been formulated to find the best‐suited GCM‐CMIP6 (i.e., CMCC‐ESM2). In this context, runoff simulation is carried out using the meteorological inputs of the monsoon onset‐retreat (MOR)‐based best‐suited GCM to evaluate its usability. A multi‐model simulation approach has been carried out for runoff estimation based on observed datasets to find a better‐suited hydrological model. The proposed overall methodology is tested in a hydrological extreme‐prone ungauged watershed (i.e., Ranikhola). CMCC‐ESM2 and SSP2‐4.5 has been identified as best‐suited SSP based on statistical evolution (R2 [0.693], NSE [0.662] and RSR [0.581]) for future daily runoff prediction. Future hydrological analysis shows that the average monsoon peak runoff magnitude will increase from the calibrated period (2015–2020) by 18.01% in the coming years (2021–2049).

АНАЛИЗ СОПОСТАВИМОСТИ ХАРАКТЕРИСТИК РЕЧНОГО СТОКА ПО ДАННЫМ МНОГОЛЕТНИХ НАБЛЮДЕНИЙ И РЕАНАЛИЗА НА ПРИМЕРЕ РЕК ЗАПАДНОЙ СИБИРИ

Long-term observation series of hydrological and climatic parameters should be obtained to solve the problems of assessing and forecasting the hydrological regime of river basins. In the absence of surface measurements of these parameters, reanalysis data can be used. The paper presents a comparison of the runoff magnitude and the consistency of runoff dynamics based on the observational data of gauging stations and the ERA5-Land and TerraClimate reanalysis data for seven rivers of Western Siberia (the left-bank tributaries of the Yenisei located in the zones of taiga and forest-tundra). Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients for seasonal and annual runoff between the data of reanalysis and the actual data are equal to 0.35-0.98. The normalized root-mean-square error of annual runoff according to the reanalysis ranges from 13 to 21%. The values of errors and correlation coefficients depend on geographic location and area of the basins and vary during a season.

Estimating Vegetation Greening Influences on Runoff Signatures Using a Log‐Based Weighted Ensemble Method

AbstractVegetation greening profoundly impacts the water cycle, and recent concerns about greening impacts have focused on various hydrological cycle components. However, the impacts of greening on catchment runoff signatures reflecting magnitude, low/high flow frequency, low/high flow duration and flow dynamics remain poorly understood. To properly simulate these runoff signatures, we use five modified hydrological models incorporating vegetation dynamics and further derive three ensemble approaches to obtain eight runoff time series outputs in a major tributary of the Yellow River Basin. Multiple validations suggest that the log‐based weighted ensemble (LWE) approach is robust for depicting the impact of greening on selected runoff signatures. This is especially true for the low flow part of the runoff time series and the overall performance of the selected signatures since LWE explicitly reduces the low flow bias. With this approach, five experiments were designed to isolate the impact of vegetation greening on runoff signatures, and the comparisons among the experiments indicate that greening noticeably decreases runoff magnitude, increases low flow frequency/duration and decreases high flow frequency/duration signatures. However, greening has little influence on runoff dynamic signatures. Each percent increase in leaf area index results in (a) changes of −0.2 ± 0.1% for magnitude signatures; (b) changes of −0.34 ± 0.30% and 0.56 ± 0.28% with wide ranges for annual high flow days and annual low flow days, respectively; and (c) marginal change on flow dynamic signatures. This study provides new insights by disentangling greening impacts on various runoff signatures using a trade‐off ensemble method.

A hydrologic perspective of major U.S. droughts

AbstractDrought is a recurring natural hazard that has substantial human and environmental impacts. Given continued global warming and associated climate change, there is concern that droughts could become more severe and longer lasting. To better monitor and understand drought development and persistence, it is helpful to understand the development and climatic drivers of past droughts. In this study we use monthly runoff percentiles to identify five major drought events in the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 1901 through 2020. For each drought event we examined spatial patterns of departures of mean monthly precipitation, temperature, soil moisture storage, and runoff for 2,107 hydrologic units (HUs) across the CONUS. Results indicated that precipitation deficits have been the primary driver of past major‐drought events and temperature a secondary driver, even of the most recent drought event (September 1999 through September 2015) when positive temperature anomalies occurred over most of the CONUS. Additionally, negative soil moisture storage departures were more negative than runoff departures during the five drought events we examined, which emphasizes the importance of measuring both runoff and soil moisture to monitor drought conditions. We also examined the use of statistical persistence to develop short‐term (i.e., 1 month) forecasts of runoff drought conditions in the CONUS by developing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for each HU. Results indicated that persistence can be used to predict short‐term changes in the spatial pattern of drought and the areal extent of drought, but that predictions of runoff magnitude for any particular site are often poor.

Evaluation of sediment connectivity through physically-based erosion modeling of landscape factor at the event scale

Understanding erosion and sedimentation processes along the drainage network, from hillslopes to rivers and reservoirs, is essential for water resources management and river restoration. This work proposes a novel dynamic evaluation of landscape factor from modeled runoff and erosion rates from physically-based distributed hydrological modelling, to estimate event-scale sediment connectivity. Four precipitation events of moderate intensity were selected and used for model calibration. The results were used to analyze the temporal variability of connectivity and comparison with indices based on catchment relief or land-uses. Although the headwater areas of the hillslopes presented similar values for all simulated events, a progressive increase in sediment connectivity, proportional to the runoff magnitude of the event, was observed. The variability of the event-scale connectivity index was mainly controlled by parameters related to flow (riverbed roughness, rill erodibility and particle diameter) and less by land use and vegetation cover (cover fraction or interrill erodibility). Although features affecting functional connectivity caused variations between events, the obtained results agreed with indices based on relief as landscape factor. This highlights the important role of structural connectivity represented by the catchment topography. However, the proposed methodology is subject to several sources of uncertainty related to event-scale model calibration, the erosion and transport processes considered and the spatial distribution of runoff. Furthermore, the geomorphological threshold for hillslope and rivers can also affect sediment connectivity, especially along the fluvial system. The results of this work highlight important future challenges in a more dynamic understanding of sediment connectivity river basins.

Earlier winter/spring runoff and snowmelt during warmer winters lead to lower summer chlorophyll-a in north temperate lakes.

Winter conditions, such as ice cover and snow accumulation, are changing rapidly at northern latitudes and can have important implications for lake processes. For example, snowmelt in the watershed-a defining feature of lake hydrology because it delivers a large portion of annual nutrient inputs-is becoming earlier. Consequently, earlier and a shorter duration of snowmelt are expected to affect annual phytoplankton biomass. To test this hypothesis, we developed an index of runoff timing based on the date when 50% of cumulative runoff between January 1 and May 31had occurred. The runoff index was computed using stream discharge for inflows, outflows, or for flows from nearby streams for 41lakes in Europe and North America. The runoff index was then compared with summer chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration (a proxy for phytoplankton biomass) across 5-53years for each lake. Earlier runoff generally corresponded to lower summer Chl-a. Furthermore, years with earlier runoff also had lower winter/spring runoff magnitude, more protracted runoff, and earlier ice-out. We examined several lake characteristics that may regulate the strength of the relationship between runoff timing and summer Chl-a concentrations; however, our tested covariates had little effect on the relationship. Date of ice-out was not clearly related to summer Chl-a concentrations. Our results indicate that ongoing changes in winter conditions may have important consequences for summer phytoplankton biomass and production.

A Changing Hydrological Regime: Trends in Magnitude and Timing of Glacier Ice Melt and Glacier Runoff in a High Latitude Coastal Watershed

AbstractWith a unique biogeophysical signature relative to other freshwater sources, meltwater from glaciers plays a crucial role in the hydrological and ecological regime of high latitude coastal areas. Today, as glaciers worldwide exhibit persistent negative mass balance, glacier runoff is changing in both magnitude and timing, with potential downstream impacts on infrastructure, ecosystems, and ecosystem resources. However, runoff trends may be difficult to detect in coastal systems with large precipitation variability. Here, we use the coupled energy balance and water routing model SnowModel‐HydroFlow to examine changes in timing and magnitude of runoff from the western Juneau Icefield in Southeast Alaska between 1980 and 2016. We find that under sustained glacier mass loss (−0.57 ± 0.12 m w. e. a−1), several hydrological variables related to runoff show increasing trends. This includes annual and spring glacier ice melt volumes (+10% and +16% decade−1) which, because of higher proportions of precipitation, translate to smaller increases in glacier runoff (+3% and +7% decade−1) and total watershed runoff (+1.4% and +3% decade−1). These results suggest that the western Juneau Icefield watersheds are still in an increasing glacier runoff period prior to reaching “peak water.” In terms of timing, we find that maximum glacier ice melt is occurring earlier (2.5 days decade−1), indicating a change in the source and quality of freshwater being delivered downstream in the early summer. Our findings highlight that even in maritime climates with large precipitation variability, high latitude coastal watersheds are experiencing hydrological regime change driven by ongoing glacier mass loss.

Differential subsurface mobilization of ambient mercury and isotopically enriched mercury tracers in a harvested and residue harvested hardwood forest in northern Minnesota

Mercury is a global pollutant of critical concern but its movement through terrestrial upland systems is poorly understood. We investigated whether forest harvesting practices and varying hydrological conditions resulted in different subsurface transport pathways, fluxes and proportions of recent vs. ambient mercury in runoff. In a multiyear field experiment, we measured subsurface lateral mercury fluxes at three adjacent hillslope plots, including one that was not harvested, one where all biomass was removed after harvest, and one where residual biomass was left after harvest. Two different enriched stable mercury isotopes (Hg tracer) were added to the hillslope plots (one pre-harvest and one post-harvest) to help differentiate between recently deposited mercury and ambient mercury in soils, as well as to identify changes between years. More Hg tracer was recovered in runoff post-harvest (16.2–54.0 μg) than pre-harvest (3.7–11.8 μg) from both harvested hillslopes, but differences between harvested hillslopes were not significant. The movement of Hg tracer was governed by periods of near surface preferential flow that was enhanced by forest harvesting. Runoff Hg tracer concentrations were significantly and inversely related to both event runoff magnitude (R2 = 0.85) and runoff ratio (R2 = 0.81). Insignificant relationships between Hg tracer concentrations and both DOC and precipitation pH suggest that for recently deposited mercury, the overarching controls on mobilization were hydrological rather than biogeochemical. The dependence of mercury mobilization on the routing of precipitation to different subsurface flow pathways suggests an important interaction between climate and the age of mercury pools for mercury transport from terrestrial landscapes.

Linking Atmospheric Rivers to Annual and Extreme River Runoff in British Columbia and Southeastern Alaska

AbstractThis study quantifies the contribution of atmospheric rivers (ARs) to annual and extreme river runoff and evaluates the relationships between watershed characteristics and AR-related maximum river runoff across British Columbia and southeastern Alaska (BCSAK). Datasets used include gauged runoff from 168 unregulated watersheds, topographic characteristics of those watersheds, a regional AR catalog, and integrated vapor transport fields for water years (WYs) 1979–2016. ARs contribute ~22% of annual river runoff along the Coast and Insular Mountains watersheds, which decreases inland to ~11% in the watersheds of the Interior Mountains and Plateau. Average association between ARs and annual maximum river runoff attains >80%, >50%, and <50% along the watersheds of the western flanks of the Coast Mountains, the Interior Mountains, and Interior Plateau, respectively. There is no significant change in AR-related extreme annual maximum runoff across BCSAK during 1979–2016. AR conditions occur during 25 out of 32 of the flood-related natural disasters in British Columbia during WYs 1979–2016. AR-related annual maximum runoff magnitude is significantly higher than non-AR-related annual maximum runoff for 30% of the watersheds studied. Smaller and steeper watersheds closer to the coast are more susceptible to AR-related annual maximum runoff than their inland counterparts. These results illustrate the importance of AR activity as a major control for the distribution of peak runoff in BCSAK. This work provides insights on the hydrological response of watersheds of northwestern North America to landfalling ARs that may improve flood risk assessment and disaster management in this region.

Hydrological resilience to forest fire in the subarctic Canadian shield

AbstractUnderstanding the role of forest fires on water budgets of subarctic Precambrian Shield catchments is important because of growing evidence that fire activity is increasing. Most research has focused on assessing impacts on individual landscape units, so it is unclear how changes manifest at the catchment scale enough to alter water budgets. The objective of this study was to determine the water budget impact of a forest fire that partially burned a ~450 km2subarctic Precambrian Shield basin. Water budget components were measured in a pair of catchments: one burnt and another unburnt. Burnt and unburnt areas had comparable net radiation, but thaw was deeper in burned areas. There were deeper snow packs in burns. Differences in streamflow between the catchments were within measurement uncertainty. Enhanced winter streamflow from the burned watershed was evident by icing growth at the streamflow gauge location, which was not observed in the unburned catchment. Wintertime water chemistry was also clearly elevated in dissolved organics, and organic‐associated nutrients. Application of a framework to assess hydrological resilience of watersheds to wildfire reveal that watersheds with both high bedrock and open water fractions are more resilient to hydrological change after fire in the subarctic shield, and resilience decreases with increasingly climatically wet conditions. This suggests significant changes in runoff magnitude, timing and water chemistry of many Shield catchments following wildfire depend on pre‐fire land cover distribution, the extent of the wildfire and climatic conditions that follow the fire.

Changes to rainfall, snowfall, and runoff events during the autumn–winter transition in the Rocky Mountains of North America

In cold conditions, early winter precipitation occurs as snowfall and contributes to the accumulating seasonal snowpack. In a warming climate, precipitation may occur as rainfall in mountainous areas. Detecting changes during seasonal transitions is difficult because these may encompass changes in timing, magnitude and phase, which may not be consistent between years. In this study, a sampling window from September to December is used to assess trends in magnitude, frequency and duration (of rainfall, snowfall and runoff events) in 127 climate stations and 128 watersheds with more than 30 years of record across the Rocky Mountains of North America. Rainfall events have increasing frequencies and durations, and magnitude trends are predominantly increasing at mid-latitude and mid-elevation. Snowfall events have the largest numbers of significant trends, with both increasing and decreasing trends in each of magnitude, frequency and duration. Snowfall events have decreasing frequencies and durations in the northern low-elevation sites and increasing frequencies and durations at the southern high-elevation sites. Trends in runoff events are less common than for rainfall and snowfall but are greater than expected by chance, and show similar frequency and duration patterns to snowfall trends. Snowfall and runoff events are decreasing in frequency and duration north of Wyoming and increasing to the south. Snowfall magnitude is generally decreasing to the north and increasing to the south, with runoff magnitude trends showing the reverse.

Peak Runoff in the North Caucasus: Recent Trends in Magnitude, Variation and Timing

This paper presents the first thorough generalization of the recent change in annual peak runoff magnitude, variation, and timing in the North Caucasus. The patterns of the observed changes in the characteristics of peak runoff in the late XX–early XXI century are rather complicated, but show consistent structures over the territory. The main possible climatic drivers of the revealed changes in the tendencies are discussed, as well as the role of the observed change in the peak runoff in the context of flood danger in the region. The main peak runoff characteristics are re-evaluated for the first time for the whole region of the North Caucasus since the Volume of USSR Surface Water Resources series on this region issued in 1973.

A nonstationary runoff frequency analysis for future climate change and its uncertainties

AbstractWith the intensification of climate change, its impact on runoff variations cannot be ignored. The main purpose of this study is to analyse the nonstationarity of runoff frequency adjusted for future climate change in the Luanhe River basin, China, and quantify the different sources of uncertainties in nonstationary runoff frequency analysis. The advantage of our method is the combination of generalized additive models in location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) and downscaling models. The nonstationary GAMLSS models were established for the nonstationary frequency analysis of runoff (1961–2010) by using the observed precipitation as a covariate, which is closely related to runoff and contributes significantly to its nonstationarity. To consider the nonstationary effects of future climate change on future runoff variations, the downscaled precipitation series in the future (2011–2080) from the general circulation models (GCMs) were substituted into the selected nonstationary model to calculate the statistical parameters and runoff frequency in the future. A variance decomposition method was applied to quantify the impacts of different sources of uncertainty on the nonstationary runoff frequency analysis. The results show that the impacts of uncertainty in the GCMs, scenarios, and statistical parameters of the GAMLSS model increase with increasing runoff magnitude. In addition, GCMs and GAMLSS model parameters have the main impacts on runoff uncertainty, accounting for 14% and 83% of the total uncertainty sources, respectively. Conversely, the interactions and scenarios make limited contributions, accounting for 2% and 1%, respectively. Further analysis shows that the sources of uncertainty in the statistical parameters of the nonstationary model mainly result from the fluctuations in the precipitation sequence. This result indicates the necessity of considering the precipitation sequence as a covariate for runoff frequency analysis in the future.

Unpaved rural roads as source areas of sediment in a watershed of the Brazilian semi-arid region

Approximately 80% of the road network in Brazil is unpaved and shows evidences of a high erosion potential. In the semi-arid Caatinga Biome in the northeast of the country, a monitoring programme has been done for two years in order to analyze runoff and sediment production from unpaved rural roadways and from embankments. Sediment production ranged from 0.30 to 0.92 Mg/ha yr, higher than in undisturbed areas, but generally lower than that reported for unpaved roads in other regions. However, this is a semi-arid area with low rainfall and runoff and, hence, with a limited hydrological connectivity and sediment production. Sediment production on an embankment with no vegetation was around ten times higher than on an embankment with vegetation. On the road surface, annual sediment production (normalized for gradient) in a section with traffic was three times higher than for a road surface without traffic. In addition, events that occurred after roadway maintenance activities generated peaks of sediment concentration of over 5000 mg/L. These results suggest that sediment production from roads and embankments with bare surfaces is at least one order of magnitude higher than in undisturbed catchment areas. Maintenance activity and vehicle traffic contribute to an increase in sediment availability and impact on the sediment concentration, but less intensely on sediment loads, which depend on the runoff magnitude of the events occurring after roadway maintenance. It was also found that the natural vegetation of the semi-arid region potentially captures sediment on roadway embankments; thereby playing an important role in breaking connectivity between the sediment flow from unpaved roads and the natural drainage system of the catchment.

Identification of Flash floods using Soil Flux and CO2: An Implementation of Neural Network with Less False Alarm Rate

Flash floods are very sudden and abrupt and are the major root cause of casualties and loss of infrastructure. Flash floods can be regarded as the topmost natural disasters in many countries. Usually floods are due to high precipitation, wind velocity, water wave current and melting of ice bergs. Diversified strategies have been designed and applied to identify the flash floods. Mainly dozen of sensors have been utilized to detect the flash floods like upstream level, rainfall intensity, run-off magnitude, run-off speed, color of the water, precipitation velocity, pressure, temperature, wind speed, wave current pattern and cloud to ground (CG flashes). Ultrasonic and passive infrared (PIR) sensors have also been utilized for this purpose. Sensors generate high amount of fake alerts due to the incompetent algorithms. In our research we have proposed a novel approach analysis of soil flux depicting atmospheric carbon dioxide level as the plants take smaller amount of water from the soil due to the heightened levels of carbon dioxide. Due to this newly discovered research the soil is saturated abruptly causes more floods and run-offs. In our research we have reduced the false alarms and reduced the false alarms by using scaled conjugate gradient back propagation. Simulation results showed that scaled conjugate gradient propagation performed better than the other previous methods.

Spatiotemporal Variation of Snowfall to Precipitation Ratio and Its Implication on Water Resources by a Regional Climate Model over Xinjiang, China

Snow contributes one of the main water sources to runoff in the arid region of China. A clear understanding of the spatiotemporal variation of snowfall is not only required for climate change assessment, but also plays a critical role in water resources management. However, in-situ observations or gridded datasets hardly meet the requirement and cannot provide precise spatiotemporal details on snowfall across the region. This study attempted to apply the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to clarify the spatiotemporal variation of snowfall and the ratio of snowfall to total precipitation over Xinjiang in China during the 1979–2015 period. The results showed that the snowfall increased in the southern edge of the Tarim Basin, the Ili Valley, and the Altay Mountains, but decreased in the Tianshan Mountains and the Kunlun Mountains. The snowfall/precipitation (S/P) ratio revealed the opposite trends in low-elevation regions and mountains in the study area. The S/P ratio rose in the Tarim Basin and the Junggar Basin, but declined in the Altay Mountains, the Tianshan Mountains, and the west edge of the Junggar Basin. The study area comprises two major rivers in the middle of the Tianshan Mountains. Both the runoff magnitude increase and earlier occurrence of snowmelt recharge in runoff identified for the 1980s were compared with the 2000s level in decreasing S/P ratio regions.

LARGE-SCALE INDICATIVE MAPPING OF SOIL RUNOFF

Abstract. In our study we estimate relationships between quantitative parameters of relief, soil runoff regime, and spatial distribution of radioactive pollutants in the soil. The study is conducted on the test arable area located in basin of the upper Oka River (Orel region, Russia). Previously we collected rich amount of soil samples, which make it possible to investigate redistribution of the Chernobyl-origin cesium-137 in soil material and as a consequence the soil runoff magnitude at sampling points. Currently we are describing and discussing the technique applied to large-scale mapping of the soil runoff. The technique is based upon the cesium-137 radioactivity measurement in the different relief structures. Key stages are the allocation of the places for soil sampling points (we used very high resolution space imagery as a supporting data); soil samples collection and analysis; calibration of the mathematical model (using the estimated background value of the cesium-137 radioactivity); and automated compilation of the map (predictive map) of the studied territory (digital elevation model is used for this purpose, and cesium-137 radioactivity can be predicted using quantitative parameters of the relief). The maps can be used as a support data for precision agriculture and for recultivation or melioration purposes.

Analysis of Siberian river runoffs in the 21st century

We discuss the results from the analysis of the hydrological input data for a model of Siberian river runoff for the 21st century. The INM, CRNM, GFDL, MIROC5, and HadGEM model calculations according to the RCP 8.5 scenario of the IPCC CMIP5 Project were used for the analysis. The calculations show a positive centennial trend for all the models. These data were used for the calculations of Siberian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. The river runoff calculations in accordance with the data also indicate a positive trend, though with a different runoff magnitude.

Groundwater recharge rates and surface runoff response to land use and land cover changes in semi-arid environments

The effects of land use and land cover (LULC) on groundwater recharge and surface runoff and how these are affected by LULC changes are of interest for sustainable water resources management. However, there is limited quantitative evidence on how changes to LULC in semi-arid tropical and subtropical regions affect the subsurface components of the hydrologic cycle, particularly groundwater recharge. Effective water resource management in these regions requires conclusive evidence and understanding of the effects of LULC changes on groundwater recharge and surface runoff. We reviewed a total of 27 studies (2 modeling and 25 experimental), which reported on pre- and post land use change groundwater recharge or surface runoff magnitude, and thus allowed to quantify the response of groundwater recharge rates and runoff to LULC. Comparisons between initial and subsequent LULC indicate that forests have lower groundwater recharge rates and runoff than the other investigated land uses in semi-arid tropical/ subtropical regions. Restoration of bare land induces a decrease in groundwater recharge from 42% of precipitation to between 6 and 12% depending on the final LULC. If forests are cleared for rangelands, groundwater recharge increases by 7.8 ± 12.6%, while conversion to cropland or grassland results in increases of 3.4 ± 2.5 and 4.4 ± 3.3%, respectively. Rehabilitation of bare land to cropland results in surface runoff reductions of between 5.2 and 7.3%. The conversion of forest vegetation to managed LULC shows an increase in surface runoff from 1 to 14.1% depending on the final LULC. Surface runoff was reduced from 2.5 to 1.1% when grassland is converted to forest vegetation. While there is general consistency in the results from the selected case studies, we conclude that there are few experimental studies that have been conducted in tropical and subtropical semi-arid regions, despite that many people rely heavily on groundwater for their livelihoods. Therefore, there is an urgent need to increase the body of quantitative evidence given the pressure of growing human population and climate change on water resources in the region.

Nonlinear response in runoff magnitude to fluctuating rain patterns.

The runoff coefficient of a hillslope is a reliable measure for changes in the streamflow response at the river link outlet. A high runoff coefficient is a good indicator of the possibility of flash floods. Although the relationship between runoff coefficient and streamflow has been the subject of much study, the physical mechanisms affecting runoff coefficient including the dependence on precipitation pattern remain open topics for investigation. In this paper, we analyze a rainfall-runoff model at the hillslope scale as that hillslope is forced with different rain patterns: constant rain and fluctuating rain with different frequencies and amplitudes. When an oscillatory precipitation pattern is applied, although the same amount of water may enter the system, its response (measured by the runoff coefficient) will be maximum for a certain frequency of precipitation. The significant increase in runoff coefficient after a certain pattern of rainfall can be a potential explanation for the conditions preceding flash-floods.