The study of runoff formation in semiarid regions relies generally on the solution of Richards equations using numerical approaches such as those provided by Hydrus-1D. We demonstrate here that a Simple Analytical Method (SAM) could be easily applied to estimate areas under flooding risk, under different soil and rainfall conditions, without the need to run burdensome numerical models. The impact of antecedent soil moisture condition was expressed quantitatively, conferring to SAM a predictive capability based on a-priori information on soil properties, rainfall characteristics, and initial conditions. The SAM was applied to the Shikma catchment, in the center of Israel, to illustrate its capability to estimate the spatial distribution of time of runoff occurrence and runoff coefficient for a prescribed rainfall event. The results suggest that SAM can be used as part of early warning systems of flood risks. Radars, carried by satellites and drones, can be used to provide refined data on rainfall intensity and soil surface initial conditions. SAM could be then coupled with these remotely sensed data to improve runoff initiation and accumulation estimates, thus reducing the time interval required to reach operational decisions regarding potential floods and inundations, and related water erosion hazards.
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