Runoff Changes Research Articles

Projected changes of Greenland’s periphery glaciers and ice caps

Abstract Rapid global warming has caused drastic mass loss in Greenland’s peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs), contributing to a rise of global sea levels. To better understand future changes under different emission scenarios, we used the Open Global Glacier Model to simulate glacier dynamics and runoff changes from 2015 to 2100. The results show that their area and volume will decrease by 38.88% (SSP1-2.6) to 60.84% (SSP5-8.5) and 47.56% (SSP1-2.6) to 67.10% (SSP5-8.5) by 2100, with regions that have larger glacierized areas and are farther from the ocean experiencing less volume loss. Meanwhile, the predicted surface mass balance of Greenland’s peripheral GICs in 2100 is −0.58 ± 0.92, −1.18 ± 1.13, −2.04 ± 0.79 and −3.16 ± 0.96 m w.e. a−1 under four emission scenarios. The runoff under higher emission scenarios is larger than that under lower emission scenarios, with peak water occurring later in regions that have larger glacierized areas and are farther from the ocean.

Prediction of long-term future runoff under multi-source data assessment in a typical basin of the Yangtze River

Study regionThree Typical Basins of the Yangtze River (YRB), China Study focusMeteorological factors, such as precipitation, are key drivers of the hydrological system and critical inputs in hydrological modeling, and accurate meteorological data are essential to simulate hydrological processes. This study compares and evaluates the CN05.1, CMFD, and ERA5-L and meteorological forcing datasets in three typical basins of the Yangtze River and predicts the future runoff changes in the basin based on CMIP6 data. New hydrological insights for the regionThis study indicated that (1) the CN05.1 data exhibit the best applicability on the interannual and intra-annual scales in YRB, while ERA5-Land performs better in the upper reaches, and CMFD is more suitable for the middle and lower reaches. (2) Future runoff is projected to initially decrease and then increase, with the inflection and inflections points of runoff occurring earlier in the ssp585 scenario compared to the ssp245. The risk of spring flooding is increasing in CS and JZ river basin, and the risk of flooding is decreasing in the FH River Basin as the flood peaks are earlier. (3) Significant trend changes are anticipated in the future, with climate change contributing over 90 % of the runoff changes in the CS, while human factors will increasingly influence the JZ and FH basins.

Changes in water regime in the high-mountain region of the Terek River (North Caucasus) in connection with climate change and degradation of glaciation

In this study, we adapted the ECOMAG model of the runoff formation for analysis of the Terek River basin using comprehensive hydrometeorological information as well as data on soils, landscape, and glaciation. To take account of regional characteristics of the glaciation, the additional ice module was used with the model. This improvement has resulted in a satisfactory agreement between the modeled runoff hydrographs and the observed ones. In our simulations we used the updated glacier cover predictions from the- global glaciological model GloGEMflowdebris together with regional climate projections from the CORDEX experiment to determine possible future changes in the Terek River flow in the 21st century. The results show that the runoff will change between −2% and +5% according to the RCP2.6 scenario, and from −8% to +14% in the RCP8.5 scenario. The directedness of the runoff changes in particular subbasins of the River will essentially depend on the altitude position of the snow and glacier feeding zones, that is responsible for the intensity of their degradation. Thus, in the RCP8.5 scenario, the flow of the Chegem River will begin to decrease significantly in the second half of the 21st century. In contrast, the predicted increasing of the runoff in Malka and Baksan rivers, which are primarily fed by meltwater from glaciers and snow on Elbrus and other high-mountain zones, is expected to be continued until the end of the century. But this increase may be caused only by a growth of a part of the snowmelt feeding due to greater winter precipitation. The model estimates confirm the present-day observed trends within the intra-annual runoff distribution, demonstrating the earlier start of the spring flood, a decrease in summer runoff volumes and then its increase in the autumn months. The results of the research may be used for more efficient management of water resources in the North Caucasus in the future, including electricity generation and water supply.

Study on runoff forecasting and error correction driven by atmosphere–ocean-land dataset

Accurate runoff forecasting results can not only provide an important basis for flood control scheduling, but also provide scientific support for water resources optimization, which promotes the maximization of the overall benefits of the basin. To further explore the inherent mechanisms of the atmosphere–ocean-land factors driving runoff changes, this study proposes the factors dimension reduction and interpretation framework based on Pearson, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and SHapley Additive exPlanations (P-XGBoost-SHAP). Base on this, the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Long Short-Term Memory neural network (LSTM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are used to construct the atmospheric-ocean-land data-driven runoff prediction model. Meanwhile, for the runoff prediction residuals, this paper proposes an error multi-step correction framework based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition and autoregressive model (EEMD-AR). The case study of Lianghekou hydrological station shows that the factor dimension reduction and interpretation framework can greatly reduce the input dimension of the model, and explain the factors globally and locally by using SHAP Value. Compared with the traditional Random Forest (RF) dimension reduction method, it shows higher prediction accuracy. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) can be increased to about 0.93, which is 4.91 % and 1.97 % higher than the series–parallel coupling (AR-Parallel) and empirical mode decomposition-autoregressive (EMD-AR) correction methods, respectively. The accuracy of the runoff forecasting prediction is improved while reducing the input dimension of the model.

Runoff Change Characteristics and Response to Climate Variability and Human Activities Under a Typical Basin of Natural Tropical Rainforest Converted to Monoculture Rubber Plantations

Climate variability and human activities are major influences on the hydrological cycle. However, the driving characteristics of hydrological cycle changes and the potential impact on runoff in areas where natural forests have been converted to rubber plantations on a long-term scale remain unclear. Based on this, the Mann–Kendall (MK) and Pettitt breakpoint tests and the Double Mass Curve method were employed to identify the variation characteristics and breakpoints of precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (ET0), and runoff depth (R) in the Wanquan River Basin (WQRB) during the 1970–2016 period. The changes in runoff attributed to P, ET0, and the catchment characteristics parameter (n) were quantified using the elastic coefficient method based on the Budyko hypothesis. The results revealed that the P and R in the WQRB exhibited statistically insignificant decreasing trends, while ET0 displayed a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05). The breakpoint of runoff changes in the Jiabao and the Jiaji stations occurred in 1991 and 1983, respectively. The runoff changes show a negative correlation with both the n and ET0, while exhibiting a positive correlation with P. Moreover, it is observed that P and ET0 display higher sensitivity towards runoff changes compared to n. The decomposition analysis reveals that in the Dingan River Basin (DARB), human activities account for 53.54% of the runoff changes, while climate variability contributes to 46.46%. In the Main Wanquan River Basin (MWQRB), human activities contribute to 46.11%, whereas climate variability accounts for 53.89%. The research findings suggest that runoff is directly reduced by climate variability (due to decreased P and increased ET0), while human activities indirectly contribute to changes in runoff through n, exacerbating its effects. Rubber forest stands as the prevailing artificial vegetation community within the WQRB. The transformation of natural forests into rubber plantations constitutes the primary catalyst for the alteration of n in the WQRB. The research findings provide important reference for quantifying the driving force of hydrological changes caused by deforestation, which is of great significance for sustainable management of forests and water resources.

Applicability of attribution methods for identifying runoff changes in changing environments

Under the dual impacts of global climate change and human activities, how to accurately and quantitatively assess and identify changes in watershed runoff is crucial to the rational development and utilization of water resources. Different methods of identifying runoff change attribution are applicable to different environments. In this study, we used five different methods, including the double mass curve (DMC), the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), and the three Budyko hypotheses based on Fu, Choudhury‒Yang, and Milly‒Zhang formulas to explore the impact of human activities and climate change on runoff change in the Jinghe River basin (JRB). The results show that annual runoff of the JRB decreased considerably, and human activities accounted for more than 90%. Specifically, the results of the SWAT model and the three Budyko hypotheses are highly consistent except for the DMC method, which is not recommended in basins with significant changes in factors other than precipitation. More importantly, the Budyko hypothesis based on the Milly‒Zhang formula uses the vegetation water utilization coefficient to consider the impact of vegetation change on runoff, which is most consistent with the simulation results of the SWAT model and is recommended for the attribution analysis of changes in the Loess Plateau represented by the JRB.

Drivers of wind and water erosion for river sediments in a typical coarse sandy area in the middle reaches of the Yellow River

Warmer temperatures and the combined effects of wind and water erosion leads to serious soil loss. Identifying the contribution of different drivers to wind and water compound erosion can improve soil erosion management in the watershed. Accordingly, we calculated the erosion energy based on energy theory and applied the mutation test and trend analysis to explore environmental drivers, runoff, and sediment changes for the Kuyehe River Basin. Rainfall erosion energy, wind erosion energy, air temperature, NDVI, and land cover were selected as potential drivers to quantify the contribution of sediment change using a partial least squares regression model. The results indicated that rainfall erosion energy decreased, wind erosion energy increased and then decreased, temperature increased, and NDVI increased during the period 1990–2020. The relationship between runoff and sediment transport in the basin shifted from more water and more sediment to more water and less sediment, and the timing of the mutation was different for runoff and sediment, with the runoff mutation occurring in 1997 and the sediment mutation occurring during 2003–2004. After sediment mutations, wind, NDVI, and land cover of forests showed higher importance for sediment transport changes, while precipitation and temperature were less important. In addition, the importance of cropland, shrub and grassland, and other land cover types varied considerably between sub-basins. Over 70 % of the contribution to sediment change was due to land cover change, while the cumulative contribution of forest and NDVI was about 30 %. The study identified the key drivers of sediment transport changes in the basin and provided valuable insights for future studies of wind and water compound erosion at the basin scale.

Research on a cloud model intelligent computing platform for water resource management

ABSTRACT As the demand for water management information systems continues to increase, addressing issues such as poor generalizability, low reusability, and difficulties in updating and maintaining water resource planning cloud model service platforms becomes crucial. To achieve goals like business-oriented functionality, high availability, and reliability, this study proposes constructing a cloud model service platform for basin water resource planning based on cloud computing technology and business workflows. This study couples water cycle models with multi-objective optimization models for water resource allocation, using digital topological water networks to achieve dynamic regional water resource allocation. The cloud service platform adopts a business-oriented modeling method based on B/S development architecture. This paper takes the Weihe River Basin as an example to simulate and analyze the evolution of the water cycle pattern and optimize the annual water resources allocation plan. Results show that: (1) the water cycle model of the cloud model service platform can better describe the runoff change process in the verification period; (2) through the cloud platform service model, the water shortage rate of the Weihe River Basin in 2025 is 7.95%. The research findings provide technical references and insights for intelligent water management and refined allocation of water resources in the Weihe River Basin.

The effects of environmental evolution on runoff and hydrological health variations in the upper Shule River, Northwest China

Promptly grasping the process of runoff change and the mechanism of hydrological health (H) variation in inland river basins is essential for the optimal use of water resources in the arid area of Northwest China. In this study, the upper Shule River (USR) was selected as the research area. The Budyko equation and the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity method (SCRCQ) were used to analyze the response of environmental changes to the evolution of runoff and hydrological health during 1956–2022. The findings showed that the streamflow at various time scales in the USR showed a significantly increased trend from 1956 to 2022. The change rate of annual maximum runoff (Rmax) was 3.3 times that of annual runoff (R), the change rate of R in the flood period was 2.4 times that in the non-flood period, and the change rate in summer was 5 times that in winter. The H of the USR indicated a downtrend during 1956–2022, and the H in the Ta period was better than that in the Tb period. June and August were the main periods of runoff increase and hydrological health evolution, and precipitation (P) was the main driving factor. The response of Rmax increased to climate variability and anthropogenic stressors was 50.42 % and 49.58 %, respectively. The response degrees of H to climate variability and anthropogenic stressors were 62.89 % and 37.11 %, respectively. In general, climate variation was the major factor in the increase of R and the decrease of H in the USR. The findings are useful for getting the streamflow evolution process and hydrologic cycle mechanism and playing a supporting role in the sustainable management of water resources in the future.

A framework for analyzing the most relevant indicators of ecohydrology in a changing environment

ABSTRACT Human activities and climatic changes have altered the hydrological ecosystem of the Min River Basin and affected in-river biodiversity. In this paper, the year of abrupt hydrological change was identified using multiple tests, and the drivers of ecohydrological change were quantified in conjunction with the Budyko coupled hydrothermal equilibrium theory. Combined with ecological flow indicators (ecological surplus (ES) and ecological deficit (ED)) calculated based on discharge hydrographs and multiple hydrological indicators (ES/ED), the degree of river hydrological alteration in the Min River Basin was comprehensively evaluated, and its impacts on in-river biodiversity analyzed. The results of the study showed that: (1) according to the Budyko theory, the influence of human activities on the runoff changes in the Min River Basin reached 56.80%, which was the main influence factor, followed by climatic factors (41.56% for precipitation and 1.64% for evapotranspiration); (2) dam construction has generally resulted in an increase in seasonal ES and a decrease in seasonal ED; (3) the combination of the ecological flow indexes with the ecologically relevant hydrological indicators not only reduces the redundancy between the parameters, but also reflects the essential hydrological information and ecological connotations, and it is an effective method for evaluating ecohydrological mechanisms.

Simulating runoff changes and evaluating under climate change using CMIP6 data and the optimal SWAT model: a case study

This study examines the influence of climate change on hydrological processes, particularly runoff, and how it affects managing water resources and ecosystem sustainability. It uses CMIP6 data to analyze changes in runoff patterns under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). This study also uses a Deep belief network (DBN) and a Modified Sparrow Search Optimizer (MSSO) to enhance the runoff forecasting capabilities of the SWAT model. DBN can learn complex patterns in the data and improve the accuracy of runoff forecasting. The meta-heuristic algorithm optimizes the models through iterative search processes and finds the optimal parameter configuration in the SWAT model. The Optimal SWAT Model accurately predicts runoff patterns, with high precision in capturing variability, a strong connection between projected and actual data, and minimal inaccuracy in its predictions, as indicated by an ENS score of 0.7152 and an R2 coefficient of determination of 0.8012. The outcomes of the forecasts illustrated that the runoff will decrease in the coming years, which could threaten the water source. Therefore, managers should manage water resources with awareness of these conditions.

Determination of ecological flow based on probability distributions of annual and monthly flows

ABSTRACT Developing scientifically sound ecological flow is crucial for protecting river ecosystems. However, most of the existing hydrological methods for determining ecological flow make it difficult to consider both inter-annual and intra-annual changes in runoff. To compensate for this shortcoming, this paper proposes an innovative ecological flow determination method based on the probability distributions of annual and monthly flows. Marginal distributions of annual and monthly flows are first fitted, and the Copula function is used to create joint probability distributions of annual and monthly flows. Conditional probabilities for different monthly flow sizes under different annual flow conditions are then calculated based on Bayesian inference. The conditional probabilities are combined with the flow–duration curve-–based method to finalize the ecological flow process considering both intra- and inter-annual runoff changes. A case study was conducted in Jinsha River, China. The results show that the total annual ecological water demand of the Jinsha River is 1.50, 1.25, and 1.04 × 1011 m3 under annual flow scenarios of high, medium, and low flows, respectively, which provide a red line for the development of water resources and hydro-energy resources of the Jinsha River, as well as for the better protection of the natural plant and animal species.

Non-consistent changes and drivers of water-sediment fluxes in the yarlung tsangpo river basin of the Tibetan plateau

Variations in water-sediment fluxes and their driving mechanisms are critical to riverine ecosystems and management. Yet, current estimates of the response of water and sediment flux remain insufficiently quantified, limited by the scarcity of long-term hydrological records in the alpine regions. Here, we leverage decadal observations in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin, to investigate the dynamic shifts in water-sediment fluxes from 1955 to 2020 and elucidate their linkage to a warming and wetting climate, snowmelt, and environmental greening (including natural- and human-induced greening) in the different spatial and temporal scale. Major drivers of shifts in water-sediment flux are identified by using wavelet coherence and variance partitioning of redundancy analysis. The results highlight that observational data from four gauging stations (i.e., Lhaze, Nugesha, Yangcun, and Nuxia) uncover a substantial decrease in suspended sediment load (SSL) (Nuxia: 12.302 × 104 t/yr, P < 0.05) in the downstream with consistently increasing runoff and precipitation. Especially during the flood season (July to September), the dam/reservoir construction caused a median decrease in SSL. Dropping sediment offsets the slightly rising SSLs in the midstream and upstream (upper Yangcun: 14.8 × 104 t/yr, P > 0.05). Up to 80% of sediment was sourced from the middle stretch between Lhaze and Nugesha despite it supplied with lower regional runoff generation. Nevertheless, the downstream zone experienced the transition from a sediment source to a deposition area around 1998. We further found the negative and positive effects between water-sediment fluxes and revegetation, and demonstrated that employing NDVI to evaluate human-induced vegetation greening might overestimate the impact of ecological restoration programs on water-sediment fluxes. Attribution analysis indicates that precipitation was not the primary contributor to runoff and SSL changes in all stretches of the basin. In the upstream, temperature and associated snowmelt can be more important than precipitation. Compared to before 1998, precipitation is still the primary driver of change in downstream runoff change after 1998, whilst vegetation restoration, rather than precipitation, dominates the reduction in downstream SSL. These findings have far-reaching significance for watershed managers and decision-makers in terms of developing effective strategies for water resources and soil erosion control.

Spatiotemporal responses of runoff to climate change in the southern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract. A comprehensive understanding of spatiotemporal runoff changes in the Yarlung Zangbo (YZ) basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau (TP) at a sub-basin scale, amidst varying climatic and cryospheric conditions, is imperative for effective water resources management. However, spatiotemporal differences of runoff composition and change and their attribution within the YZ basin have not been extensively explored, primarily due to the lack of hydrometeorological observations, especially in the downstream region. In this study, we investigated historical and future evolution of annual and seasonal total water availability, as well as glacier runoff and snowmelt contributions across six sub-basins of the YZ, with a particular focus on the comparison between the upstream Nuxia (NX) basin and the downstream Nuxia–Pasighat (NX-BXK) basin, based on a newly generated precipitation dataset and a well-validated model with streamflow, glacier mass, and snow cover observations. Our findings revealed that large spatiotemporal differences in changes exist within the YZ basin for 1971–2020. Firstly, runoff generation was dominated by rainfall runoff throughout the YZ basin, with glacier runoff playing a more important role in the annual total runoff (19 %) in the NX-BXK sub-basin compared to other sub-basins. Notably, glacier runoff contributed 52 % of the total runoff at the Pasighat outlet of the YZ basin. Secondly, annual runoff exhibited an increasing trend in the NX basin but a decreasing trend in the NX-BXK, primarily attributed to rainfall runoff changes influenced by atmospheric moisture. Glacier runoff enhanced water supply by offsetting the decreasing contribution from rainfall. Total runoff will consistently increase (27–100 mm (10 yr)−1) across the sub-basins through the 21st century, resulting from increased rainfall runoff and a minor effect of increased snowmelt and glacier runoff.

Quantifying the Influence of Climatic and Anthropogenic Factors on Multi-Scalar Streamflow Variation of Jialing River, China

Clarifying the impact of driving forces on multi-temporal-scale (annual, quarterly and monthly) runoff changes is of great significance for watershed water resource planning. Based on monthly runoff data and meteorological data of the Jialing River (JLR) during 1982–2020, the Mann–Kendall tendency testing approach was first applied to analyze variation tendencies of multi-timescale runoff. Then, abrupt variation years of runoff were determined using Pettitt and cumulative anomaly mutation testing approaches. The ABCD model was employed for simulating hydrological change processes in the base period and variation period. Finally, influences of climatic and anthropic factors on multi-scalar runoff were computed using the multi-scalar Budyko formula. The following conclusions were drawn in this study: (1) The mutation year of discharge was 1993; (2) the monthly runoff in the JLR presented a “single peak” distribution, and the concentration degree and concentration period in the JLR both showed an insignificant reduction trend; (3) anthropic factors were the dominant factor for spring runoff variations; climatic factors were the dominant factor on annual, summer, fall and winter runoff variations; (4) except for November, climatic factors were the dominant factor causing runoff changes in the other 11 months. This study has important reference value for water resource allocation and flood control decisions in the JLR.

Attribution analysis of runoff and sediment changes in the Yellow River Basin based on the Budyko framework

ABSTRACT Under the influence of climate and human factors, runoff and sediment in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) have undergone a significant decline in the past decades. Based on the meteorological and hydrological records of six hydrological stations in the mainstream from 1967 to 2015, the impacts of climate change and human activities on the changes of runoff and sediment in different river reaches of the YRB were quantitatively evaluated by applying the Budyko framework. The results indicated that (1) the precipitation and potential evaporation suggested a non-significant decreasing trend in the whole basin (P &amp;gt; 0.05); (2) the contributions of climate change and human activities to the reduction of runoff in the basins of the six hydrological stations ranged from 7.6 to 19.7% and from 80.3 to 92.4%, respectively, with the largest contribution of human activities in the middle reaches; (3) the contributions of climate change and human activities to the reduction of sediment in the catchments ranged from −0.3 to 9.4% and from 90.6 to 100.3%, respectively, and the most artificial efforts have been made to reduce sediment in the middle reaches on account of mainly sediment source.

Impact of Urbanization-Driven Land Use Changes on Runoff in the Upstream Mountainous Basin of Baiyangdian, China: A Multi-Scenario Simulation Study

Urbanization in the Haihe River Basin in northern China, particularly the upstream mountainous basin of Baiyangdian, has significantly altered land use and runoff processes. The runoff is a key water source for downstream areas like Baiyangdian and the Xiong’an New Area, making it essential to understand these changes’ implications for water security. However, the exact implications of these processes remain unclear. To address this gap, a simulation framework combining SWAT+ and CLUE-S was used to analyze runoff responses under different land use scenarios: natural development (ND), farmland protection (FP), and ecological protection (EP). The model simulation results were good, with NSE above 0.7 for SWAT+. The Kappa coefficient for CLUE-S model validation was 0.83. The further study found that from 2005 to 2015, urban construction land increased by 11.50 km2 per year, leading to a 0.5–1.3 mm rise in annual runoff. Although urban expansion continued, the other scenarios, which emphasized farmland and forest preservation, slowed this growth. Monthly runoff changes were most significant during the rainy season, with annual runoff in ND, FP, and EP varying by 8.9%, 10.9%, and 7.7%, respectively. While the differences in annual runoff between scenarios were not dramatic, these findings provide a theoretical foundation for future water resource planning and management in the upstream mountainous area of Baiyangdian and offer valuable insights for the sustainable development of Xiong’an New Area. Additionally, these results contribute to the broader field of hydrology by highlighting the importance of considering multiple land use scenarios in runoff change analysis.

Hydrological simulation and evaluation of drought conditions in the ungauged watershed Parishan lake Iran, using the SWAT model

ABSTRACT ke Parishan has experienced significant water scarcity, leading to its complete disappearance. This study utilized the SWAT model to assess the impact of changes in vegetation, precipitation, temperature, and evaporation on runoff and the lake's surface. Two strategies were employed: analyzing runoff variations based on land use and land cover (LULC) changes and evaluating the effects of precipitation, temperature, and humidity on runoff during the simulation period. A key challenge was the lack of runoff statistics, which was addressed by using data from donor watershed stations and Copernicus satellite information to improving simulation processes and calibration. The findings reveal that environmental changes, particularly land use, have increased evaporation and temperature fluctuations which results in reducing runoff. While Copernicus satellite data proved useful, runoff statistics from the neighboring Chamchit station provided more accurate simulations. The study finding suggests that the LULC strategy is an effective management approach, as in this case Parishan Lake's historical conditions with less urbanization and agriculture correlated with higher runoff and lake levels. Finally, meteorological and hydrometric drought and its impact on lake area changes were measured to reach a more comprehensive conclusion.

Analysis of Runoff Changes and Their Driving Forces in the Minjiang River Basin (Chengdu Section) in the Last 30 Years

Analysis of Runoff Changes and Their Driving Forces in the Minjiang River Basin (Chengdu Section) in the Last 30 Years

Deforestation-induced runoff changes dominated by forest-climate feedbacks.

Large-scale deforestation alters water availability through its direct effect on runoff generation and indirect effect through forest-climate feedbacks. However, these direct and indirect effects and their spatial variations are difficult to separate and poorly understood. Here, we develop an attribution framework that combines the Budyko theory and deforestation experiments with climate models, showing that widespread runoff reductions caused by the indirect effect of forest-climate feedbacks can largely offset the direct effect of reduced forest cover on runoff increases. The indirect effect dominates the hydrological responses to deforestation over 63% of deforested areas worldwide. This indirect effect arises from deforestation-induced reductions in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, which decrease and increase runoff, respectively, leading to complex patterns of runoff responses. Our findings underscore the importance of forest-climate feedbacks for improved understanding and prediction of climate and hydrological changes caused by deforestation, with profound implications for sustainable management of forests and water resources.