Run Exchange Rate Research Articles

Exchange rate changes on export volumes in South Africa under the inflation targeting period.

This paper examines the long run effects of the exchange rate changes on export volumes in South Africa under the inflation targeting period using the Johansen cointegration and the Engle–Granger approaches. This paper further examines whether the 2007 global financial crisis, rising government debt, and cost of credit post 2008Q4 impacted the magnitudes of determinants of export volumes. Both tests confirm a long run relationship amongst export volumes, exchange rate, and foreign income. The long run exchange rate impacts are bigger than the short run effects. Foreign income demand has bigger impact on export volumes than the exchange rate. Evidence shows that 2007 global financial crisis reduced the impact of the exchange rate depreciation on export volumes but increased the impact of the foreign income demand. This suggests relying on the exchange rate as a policy tool alone to achieve the external adjustment may not raise export volumes. The global financial crisis exacerbated the adverse effects of the exchange rate volatility on the export volumes, indicating that policymakers should implement policies that limit the exchange rate volatility. The adverse effects of the global financial crisis on export volumes were transmitted more via the consumer prices rather than the exchange rate, suggesting that South Africa lost its price competitiveness during the crisis period. Rising government debt and the cost of credit post 2008Q4 are transmitted more via the exchange rate than relative price ratios to reduce export volumes. The exchange rate volatility channel does not transmit the rising government debt shocks to export volumes.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43546-022-00217-2.

External Sector and The Nigerian Manufacturing Sector Performance, 1981-2019

No country is an island. The globalization phenomenon is making all countries to be interdependent. The external sector environment has become critical for the success of every country and internal balance. Thus, it has become important to examine how much the externa sector environment impact on the performance of the domestic economy. The present study, therefore, examined the influence of Nigerian external sector environment on the performance of the Nigerian manufacturing sector between 1981 and 2019. The study adopted exp-post research design approach and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model estimation techniques. The empirical model consists of the Nigerian manufacturing sector output index as the dependent variable and exchange rate, trade openness, and foreign direct investment as independent variables and external sector environment variables. Test of unit root results indicated that the variables have mix order of integration, while the co integration analysis results indicated that the variables in the model have stable long run relationship. Estimate of the ARDL model reveals that in the short run exchange rate variations have negative, but significant effect on manufacturing sector performance, while trade openness, and FDI have positive but insignificant influence on the manufacturing sector performance in the short run. In the long run, exchange rate level and FDI inflows have positive and significant effect on the manufacturing sector performance, while trade openness has negative and significant effect on the Nigerian manufacturing sector performance. The study therefore conclude that the Nigerian external sector Environment has significant influence on the performance of the Nigerian manufacturing sector.

IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY TARGETS ON CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

This study empirically examines the impact of monetary policy targetson capital market development in Nigeria from 1986-2018. Time series data and econometric tools were used to test for the stationarity and causality effect. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) techniques were used to examine the short-run and long-run impact and relationship between Monetary Policy and Capital Market Development in Nigeria. The study revealed that both in the long run and short run Exchange Rate (EXCHR), Inflation Rate (INFR), and Interest Rate in Nigeria (INTR)were negatively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria and they were statistically insignificant in explaining changes in Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria. On the other hand, inthe long run, Money Supply was positively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria and was statistically significant at a 5% level significant while Money Supply (M2) was positively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria both in the long run and short-run and was statistically significant at 5% level of significance. Therefore, the study recommends that government should improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the money supply in Nigeria since it was statistically significant in determining the improvement of Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria.

Kesinambungan fiskal dan estimasi fiscal reaction function Indonesia tahun 1977-2017

This study aims to identify whether Indonesian fiscal condition in 1977–2017 is sustainable as measured by the government responses to debt burden. Studi on fiscal sustainability is very important since failing to identify its occurrence and determinants will detrimental to fiscal and macroeconomic policy. This study uses Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag – Error Correction Mechanism (ARDL-ECM) to estimate short-term and long-term fiscal reaction functions. The result shows that in the long-term the government responds an increase in debt burden by increasing its primary balance and thus it confirms the existence of fiscal sustainability. Furthermore, by estimating fiscal reaction function this study finds that in the long run exchange rate and Asian Financial Crisis in 1998 have significant effects on primary balance; while in the short run real exchange rates, 1998 economic crisis, and commodity prices affect the primary balance.

The Dynamics of Inflation in India:A Bounds Test Analysis

This paper investigates all the possible determinants of inflation (weighted average call money rate, food inflation, fuel and power inflation, gross fiscal deficit, trade openness, exchange rate, GDP per capita annual growth rate and world food inflation) and their impact in the long and short run in India. Using yearly data for the period from 1990 to 2016, we have employed bounds testing (ARDL) cointegration approach. Our main findings are that all the selected determinants are cointegrated with inflation in India. The error correction term with negative sign shows high speed towards equilibrium. In the long run exchange rate, world food inflation and money supply significantly contributed to increasing inflation. In the short run except for the weighted average call money rate and GDP per capita annual growth rate, all the variables play a significant role in determining inflation. The study suggests enhancement of production and productivity of agricultural commodities, especially of pulses, and management of exchange rate fluctuation that plays a multilateral role in the price management of an open economy like India.

The Dutch disease revisited: absorption constraint and learning by doing

This paper revisits the Dutch disease by analyzing the general equilibrium effects of a resource shock on a dependent economy, both in a static and dynamic setting. The novel aspect of this study is to incorporate in one coherent framework two distinct features of the Dutch disease literature that have previously been analyzed in isolation: capital accumulation with absorption constraint, and productivity growth induced by learning-by-doing. The result of long run exchange rate appreciation is maintained in line with part of the Dutch Disease literature. In addition, a permanent change in the employment shares occurs after the resource windfall, in favor of the non-traded sector and away from the traded sector growth engine of the economy. In other words, in the long run both of the classic symptoms of the Dutch Disease remain in place.

Dynamic Currency Intervention and International Monetary Neutrality

Modeling the regime of long run exchange rate and capital account intervention, or dynamic currency intervention (DCI), widely adopted by emerging economies, is of great importance to international economists. This paper develops a new dynamic general equilibrium model to probe the key mechanism of a DCI regime. We show clear drawbacks of models investigating the two crucial features of DCI separately. On one side, the fast capital market adjustment assumption in existing exchange rate intervention models may not be true for a long run capital market intervention economy. On the other side, the monetary neutrality treatment in long run capital control models can be violated in a strict exchange rate intervention country. Having addressed both issues, the new model in this paper provides an important reference to study the key mechanism of a DCI economy comprehensively.

Nonlinearity between RER and Trade Balance: A Case Study of Pakistan

Exchange rate is an important factor to bring change in trade balance of any country. In this study the true relationship that is nonlinear; have been examined empirically between trade balance and real exchange rate for Pakistan vs. USA. By using monthly data (1980m1 to 2014m2) linear and nonlinear models are estimated by using Johansen cointegration technique (1988). The negative sign of RER2 confirms the nonlinear relationship in case of bilateral trade between these two countries. Existence J-curve in case of Pakistan has been confirmed by long run and short run results, as in long run exchange rate improves the trade balance but in short run it depreciated Hussain and Bashir and Magee. Finally the nonlinear model showed better forecast performance examined by RMSE and MAE.

Capital accumulation, structural change and real exchange rate in a Keynesian-Structuralist growth model

The aim of this paper is to show at theoretical level that maintaining a competitive real exchange rate positively affects the economic growth of developing countries by means of a Keynesian-Structuralist model that combines elements of Kaleckian growth models with the balance of payments constrained growth models pioneered developed by Thirlwall. In this setting, the level of real exchange rate is capable, due to its effect over capital accumulation, to induce a structural change in the economy, making endogenous income elasticities of exports and imports. For reasonable parameter values it is shown that in steady-state growth there is two long-run equilibrium values for real exchange rate, one that corresponds to an under-valued currency and another that corresponds to an over-valued currency. If monetary authorities run exchange rate policy in order to target a competitive level for real exchange rate, than under-valued equilibrium is stable and the economy will show a high growth rate in the long-run.

Relationship between Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate in Light of Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Australia

This study seeks to identify major factors behind recent fluctuations in Australian dollar. Using quarterly data for over 30 years and cointegration and error correction models, we found that in the long run exchange rate is determined by commodity prices, interest rate and other factors such as Global Financial Crisis. We found two-way Granger causality between exchange rate and commodity prices, but one-way Granger causality from Global Financial Crisis to commodity prices. The implications of our findings is that by providing substantial incentives to Australian producers, the policy makers in Australia can ensure competitive commodity prices and exchange rate. Portfolio managers could also benefit from our findings knowing the mechanism of Global Financial Crisis impacting Australian dollar.

Exchange Rates, Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Risk Aversion

This paper shows that under absence of arbitrage opportunities the exchange rate reacts to restore equilibrium in international bond markets. The key factors determining its value are the difference between realized and implicit interest rate differentials, the underlying risk premium in bond markets and changes in market expectations on the long run exchange rate. The application of this model to the macroeconomy reveals the importance of the risk premium for setting monetary policy. We find that a relative increase/decrease in the risk premium between foreign and domestic debt markets increases/decreases the influence of foreign monetary policy for shifting real output.

Sovereign Risk, Net Foreign Assets and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Developing Economies

We show that sovereign risk premium contains important information about the short run exchange rate dynamics in emerging economies and that net foreign assets play the key role in the link between the two variables: on the one hand, the accumulation of foreign assets reduces the sovereign risk premium, since it provides a crude form of collateral, appreciating the nominal exchange rate; on the other hand, the exchange rate appreciation worsens the trade balance, having a negative effect on the accumulation of net foreign assets. Our model is tested in two steps. First, we use annual data for the most liquid USD denominated external debt emerging markets and show how sovereign risk premium decreases with the level of net foreign assets. Second, we select from the original group the countries with a de facto independent floating exchange rate regime and show that out-of-sample forecasts using realized values for the sovereign risk premium successfully outperform a random walk.

On the Contingency of Equilibrium Exchange Rates with Time Consistent Economic Policies

Equilibrium exchange rate theories (FEER, BEER and NATREX) make the assumption that the Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate (RER) is independent from internal equilibrium and economic policies. We develop a model in which economic policies depend on the minimisation of an intertemporal loss function and we show that in a Wage Setting-Price Setting (WS-PS) framework, the RER depends on the policymakers' objectives, making the previous assumptions highly questionable. We provide some results on the impact of policymakers' preferences on the long run exchange rate and discuss the concept of inflation illusion. In our model, the long run (equilibrium) exchange rate is contingent on policymakers' preferences, implying that equilibrium exchange rates estimates must be treated with great caution.

Differences in long run exchange rate pass-through into import prices in developing countries: An empirical investigation

This paper investigates the exchange rate pass-through into import prices in a sample of 24 developing countries over the period from 1980 to 2003. We estimate a pass-through equation determined by a combination of the nominal exchange rate, the price of the competing products, the exporter's costs and demand conditions. We adopt non-stationary panel estimation techniques and tests for cointegration. In the long run, homogeneity of pass-through rates across countries can be rejected. Moreover, we show that most of these differences in exchange rate pass-through into import prices are due to three macroeconomics determinants: exchange rate regimes, trade barriers and inflation regimes.

Local Manufacturing Hurt by Depreciations in a Theoretical Model Reflecting the Australian Experience

. The model is motivated by data showing that the Australian production of local manufactures is hurt by depreciations and invigorated by appreciations. The paper briefly presents such evidence and then proceeds to a theoretical analysis. The model aims to capture short-to-medium run exchange rate effects in an economy with goods and services aggregated into four commodities: (i) imports; (ii) local manufactures; (iii) services; and (iv) rural goods (agricultural, pastoral, forestry, fishing and mining products). With the exception of rural goods, each commodity comprises consumer goods as well as inputs into the other sectors. Rural goods enter consumption only indirectly after processing by the manufacturing sector. Exports are exclusively rural goods. The model has a Keynesian flavour in that the production of local manufactures and services is not constrained by the availability of resources and of labour. Variable inputs per unit of output are assumed to be constant. There are also fixed inputs. Variable inputs are imports in the case of the import sector; rural goods and imports in the case of the local manufacturing sector; and labour in the case of the services sector. The prices of imports, local manufactures and services are set by constant mark-up factors on variable costs. This assumption is based on a picture of imperfect competition with constant elasticity of demand at the firm level. The extreme capital intensity of rural goods production is taken into account by modelling total production of rural goods as an exogenous parameter. The price of rural goods is determined in the export market. It falls with increasing exports. The economy is not assumed to be small in its export market. The domestic consumption demand schedule is modelled as predetermined in the sense that in the time span under consideration the relationship between quantities consumed and nominal prices is not affected by the exchange rate. The nominal wage rate is assumed to be predetermined in the same sense. No specific functional form is imposed on the consumption demand schedule: the analysis is based on general assumptions, mainly non-inferiority and gross substitutability. In view of gross substitutability, there is a competitive relationship between imports and local manufactures. Adepreciation raises the price of imports and ceteris paribus such an increase raises the consumption of manufactures. However, the analysis shows that this enhancing influence of a depreciation on manufacturing is weaker than other causal channels that work in the opposite direction. An increase in the price of imports (and exportables) raises variable costs and thereby the price of local manufactures. This leads to a decrease in the output of local manufactures. In the course of the analysis, it is first shown that a uniquely determined equilibrium exists for every exchange rate above a lower bound. Then the effects of a change in the exchange rate are investigated. In most cases the results are unambiguous. In particular this is true for the output and the price of local manufactures. Other conclusions are that a depreciation increases exports and the amount of services provided. In some cases unequivocal results can be obtained only with the help of further assumptions. This concerns the domestic price of rural goods, the balance of trade in domestic prices and import penetration.

The monetary approach to the exchange rate: empirical observations from Korea

This note re-examines the flexible-price monetary approach to the exchange rate between the Korean won and the three key currencies: the US dollar, the German mark and the Japanese yen. The note reports the important findings. First, at least one cointegrating vector exists, which indicates that an unrestricted flexible-price monetary model is a valid framework for analysing the long run exchange rate. Second, it is found that some popular monetary restrictions on this model are valid for the Korean won-German mark rate and the Korean won-Japanese yen rate: especially all variables in the model are correctly signed and mostly statistically significant for the Korean won-German mark rate.

AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE LONG RUN MONETARY (EXCHANGE RATE) MODEL

The monetary approach to long run exchange rate determination is reexamined for the Canadian — US dollar exchange rate. We first test for non‐stationarity, and then conduct a multivariate cointegration analysis to examine the validity of the monetary model in determination of exchange rates over the long run. Our results uphold the validity of the monetary approach.

Currency substitution and exchange rate determination

The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, the monetary exchange rate model of Frenkel-Bilson and Dornbusch-Frankel is extended to allow for the currency substitution between two countries, i.e. the domestic residents to hold the foreign money and the foreign residents to hold the domestic money. Second, by using the exchange rates from 1978.Q4 to 1991.Q2 between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar, US dollar and Japanese yen, US dollar and UK pound, and US dollar and German mark, we test if the new model is a long run exchange rate determination model and if currency substitution is a significant factor in influencing the long-run exchange rate. This is achieved by applying the techniques of cointegration and error correction analysis and the ten period out of sample forecasting performance of the extended model. In general, the US-Canada, US-Germany, US-Japan and US-UK extended models outperform the random walk model.

The monetary approach to the exchange rate: Long-run relationships and coefficient restrictions

In this paper the monetary approach to the exchange rate is re-examined for three key currencies, using data for the recent experience with flexible exchange rates. Two important findings are reported in the paper. First, it is demonstrated, using a multivariate cointegration technique, that an unrestricted monetary model is a valid framework for analysing the long run exchange rate. Second, we find, inter alia, that the proportionality of the exchange rate to relative money supplies is valid for the German mark.