Rubber Futures Research Articles

Adapted Autoregressive Model and Volatility Model with Application

Price limits are applied to control risks in various futures mar kets. In this research, we proposed an adapted autoregressive model for the observed futures return by introducing dummy variables that represent limit moves. We also proposed a stochastic volatility model with dummy variables. These two models are used to investigate the existence of price de layed discovery effect and volatility spillover effect from price limits. We give an empirical study of the impact of price limits on copper and natural rubble futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) by using MCMC method. It is found that price limits are efficient in controlling copper futures price, but the rubber futures price is distorted significantly. This implies that the effects of price limits are significant for products with large fluctuation and frequent limits hit.

Measuring volatility spillovers and asymmetric responses of Agri commodity prices: evidence from spices and rubber futures in India

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate price responses and volatility spillovers between commodity spot and futures markets. The study ultimately seeks the evidence-based claims on the efficiency of the long run and short run horizontal price transmissions from futures markets to spot markets.Design/methodology/approachThis study used the most recent daily price series of pepper, cardamom and rubber, during the period 2004–2019, use “cointegration-ECM-GARCH framework” and verify the persisting validity of the “expectancy theory” of commodity futures pricing.FindingsThe results offer overwhelming evidence of futures market dominance in the price discoveries and volatility spillovers in spot markets. However, this paper finds asymmetric responses between cash and futures prices across markets. The hedging efficiency of futures contracts is commodities specific’ where spices futures are more efficient than the rubber futures.Practical implicationsThe study passes on vital information to the producers and traders of spices and rubber who have a potential interest in the use of futures contracts to make profits from arbitrage between futures and cash markets.Originality/valueThe paper is unique in terms of understanding asymmetric price linkages in markets for plantation crops.

A Study of Price Discovery of Rubber Futures Market in India

A Study of Price Discovery of Rubber Futures Market in India

Who influences the fundamental value of commodity futures in Japan?

We present evidence on the asymmetric information content of six investor groups' transactions in the gold, platinum, gasoline and rubber futures markets on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. Microstructure theory suggests that traders with superior information regarding the efficient price should be more profitable in the long run. We find that foreign investors have the greatest influence over the efficient price in the gold market, domestic retail investors in the gasoline market and domestic investment funds in the platinum and rubber markets. Differences in the relative influence of investor groups over commodity futures are likely to reflect the degree of contract homogeneity and associated market liquidity. Foreign (domestic retail) investors have larger information shares for the homogeneous liquid (heterogeneous illiquid) contracts than for the heterogeneous illiquid (homogeneous liquid) contracts.

Recession effect in pricing efficiency of rubber futures: the emerging market’s experience

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the recession effects in market efficiency of natural rubber futures contracts traded in India.Design/methodology/approachThe research draws inferences from Granger causality and Engle–Granger cointegration tests, which are administered separately on 14 year daily price data spanning into two distinct, non-overlapping time series of 2004–2008 and 2009–2017.FindingsAnalysis shows that rubber futures market is informationally efficient in price discovery. The results of cointegartion tests indicate that a long-term relationship does exist between futures and spot prices of the natural rubber in India. The recession effects in the market efficiency of rubber futures contracts are evident from the increase in optimal hedge ratios estimated with the cointegration methodology.Research limitations/implicationsThe study pursues a simple cointegration methodology to assess the causal relations between spot and futures market prices in the Indian context. Future studies investigating the long-run causal relations, with error correction framework, between spot and future prices of rubber from other leading rubber producing countries can validate the findings more on this issue.Practical implicationsThe research expects to pass on vital information inputs on the implications of future contracts to rubber traders for managing their portfolios. The study of this kind definitely will be a great help to farmers and exporters who are potentially interested in gaining access to a hedging vehicle.Originality/valueThe paper is unique in terms of understanding the effects of economic recession in information efficiency of futures market. Moreover, a limited number of studies have explored the functional utilities of rubber futures in emerging market context.

A hybrid VMD–BiGRU model for rubber futures time series forecasting

As one of the four major industrial raw materials in the world, natural rubber is closely related to the national economy and people’s livelihood. The analysis of natural rubber price and volatility can give hedging guidance to manufacturers and provide investors with uncertainty and risk information to reduce investment losses. To effectively analyses and forecast the natural rubber’s price and volatility, this paper constructed a hybrid model that integrated the bidirectional gated recurrent unit and variational mode decomposition for short-term prediction of the natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. In data preprocessing period, time series is decomposed by variational mode decomposition to capture the tendency and mutability information. The bidirectional gated recurrent unit is introduced to return the one-day-ahead prediction of the closing price and 7-day volatility for the natural rubber futures. The experimental results demonstrated that: (a) variational mode decomposition is an effective method for time series analysis, which can capture the information closely related to the market fluctuations; (b) the bidirectional neural network structure can significantly improve the model performance both in terms of fitting performance and the trend prediction; (c) a correspondence was found between the predicted target, i.e., the price and volatility, and the intrinsic modes, which manifested as the impact of the long-term and short-term characteristics on the targets at different time-scales. With a change in the time scale of forecasting targets, it was found that there was some variation in matching degree between the forecasting target and the mode sub-sequences.

Effects of change in commission fees on China futures market

Between August 2 and 27, 2010, the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased commission fees for day traders of zinc and natural rubber futures contracts by changing from a single-trip to a round-trip commission. This experiment provides a unique opportunity to study the effects of changes in commission fees only for speculators on market liquidity, trading volume, and return volatility within an order-driven futures market. The results show that an increase in commission fees for speculators in an order-driven futures market has a positive effect on return volatility but no significant effect on trading volume and bid-ask spreads.

Informational leadership of rubber futures market in India: exploration using data with different temporalities

Informational leadership of rubber futures market in India: exploration using data with different temporalities

The Effects of Financial Crisis on Hedging Efficiency of Indian Rubber Future Markets

This research, under Engle-Granger Co-integration framework, examines the hedging efficiency of Indian rubber future markets during the period 2004-2017. The essence of this study is to seek evidence for the effects of global financial crisis of 2008 on the efficiency of rubber futures in hedging price risks of spot rubber in India. The study proved the hedging efficiency of rubber futures during both pre and post recession periods. However, increased price volatility of Indian rubber after recession heightened risk exposure to market participants that eventually lead to unexpected changes in the hedging efficiency of rubber futures. The research concludes with a suggestion that writing of rubber futures in India allows traders to hedge risk exposures in spot market along with the potentials of arbitrage gains.

Who Influences the Fundamental Value of Commodity Futures in Japan?

We present evidence on asymmetric information content in the trades of six investor groups transacting in the gold, platinum, gasoline and rubber futures markets on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. Microstructure theory suggests that traders with greater information on the efficient price should be more profitable in the long run. We find that the efficient price in the gold, platinum and gasoline markets is mainly influenced by trade-related innovations. Foreign investors have the greatest influence over the efficient price in the gold market, investment funds in the platinum market and retail investors in the gasoline market. Both trade and non-trade related innovations have an equal influence on the efficient price of rubber, with trades by investment funds having the largest information content in this market.

Can futures markets accommodate Indian farmers?

Purpose It has become an ongoing debate whether Indian commodity futures markets can accommodate farmers. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether Indian commodity futures markets help rationalize farmers’ price expectation. The study starts with questions on the efficiency and other roles of commodity futures markets. Design/methodology/approach From a sectoral standpoint and economic importance, the study considers pepper, coffee, and natural rubber (NR) futures and spot markets. The efficiency of futures markets, divergence/convergence and causality between futures and spot markets have been studied by employing co-integrations, error correction and causality models. The sample period of the data are taken from the inception of futures trading. These three commodities are also compared on the basis of trading at the futures markets vs spot markets. Findings Analysis shows that though pepper futures market is informationally efficient in price discovery, while coffee and NR spot markets do the process faster. Pepper and coffee futures and spot prices exhibit the convergence; NR shows a sign of divergence. Unidirectional causality from pepper futures to spot market is observed wherein the former was weakly exogenous to the latter and while, bidirectional causality is observed in coffee and rubber. Coffee spot appears weakly exogenous while this remains inconclusive in the case of NR. Research limitations/implications The authors analyzed the futures markets in rationalizing the spot market price in three plantation crops in India. In order to make the study more generalizable, further research is warranted in other commodities including those prices of which are government regulated. Originality/value The paper is unique in terms of understanding the interaction or interrelationship between futures markets and spot markets and drawing inferences about the role of futures markets in price formation in plantation commodities like pepper, coffee and NR.

Analysis of Selected Seasonality Effects in Market of Rubber Future Contracts Quoted on Tokyo Commodity Exchange

The commodity market has been becoming one of the main popular segments of the financial markets among individual and institutional investors in recent years, due to downward trend on the stock exchanges. Likely to the equity market, the problem of anomalies in the commodities market is becoming an interesting phenomenon, particularly in the segment of the agricultural market. This paper tests the hypothesis of: monthly, daily, the day-of-the week, the first and the second half of monthly effects on the market of rubber futures, quoted in the period from 01.12.1981 to 31.03.2015. Calculations presented in this paper indicate the existence of monthly effect: in May and November, with the use of the average monthly rates of return and in February, March, April, June, July, August, October and December, when the daily average rates of return were implemented. The seasonal effects were also observed in the case of testing the statistical hypothesis for daily averaged rates of returns for different days of the month (15th), as well as for the daily average rates of return on various days of the week (Thursday). The seasonal effects were no registered for the daily average rates of return in the first and in the second half of a month.

Copulas and dependence structures: evidences from India's and Asian rubber futures markets

This paper attempts to model the dependence structures of India’s and Asian natural rubber futures (derivatives) markets. Though copula-based literature in commodity markets appears to be limited, it can capture non-linearity unlike simple correlation measures, and thus, the former can estimate magnitude of dependence adequately. This study considers exchange-level futures price across NMCE (India), SHFE (China), TOCOM (Japan) and AFET (Thailand) from July 2006 to April 2010. Analysis shows that relatively a high degree of dependence has been observed between India’s and China’s markets in comparison to other markets. This paper sheds light on the dominant role of copulas for attaining the methodological congruence of dependence-structure modelling.

Modeling the volatility of futures return in rubber and oil—A Copula-based GARCH model approach

This paper attempts to make use of a Copula-based GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) Model to find out the relationships between the volatility of rubber futures returns in the Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand (AFET) and other four main markets, namely, the volatility of rubber futures returns in the Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM), the volatility of rubber futures returns, crude oil returns, and gas oil returns in the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM). The results illustrate that the Student-t dependence only shows better explanatory power than the Gaussian dependence structure and the persistence pertaining to the dependence structure between rubber futures returns in AFET and oil futures returns, namely, crude oil futures returns and gas oil futures returns in TOCOM. Whereas, the Gaussian dependence shows better explanatory ability between rubber futures returns in AFET and other rubber futures returns, namely, the volatility of rubber futures in SICOM and TOCOM. For the multivariate Copula model, all the parameters between AFET and other variables are significant. Based on these results, with the liberalization of agricultural trade and the withdrawal of government support to agricultural producers, there is in many countries a new need for price discovery and even physical trading mechanisms, a need that can often be met by commodity futures exchanges. Hence, this paper recommends that the government supports the hedge mutual funds that can be invested in every commodities futures exchange in the world. It can also put the funds together that will contribute farmers to invest in each commodities futures market.

Research on the Dynamic Relationship between Prices of Agricultural Futures in China and Japan

Based on the classical regression model, time-varying coefficient model, unit root, co-integration, Granger causality test, VAR, impulse response and variance decomposition, the dynamic relationship between prices of natural rubber futures in China and Japan has been researched systematically. The following conclusions are gotten through empirical researches: Firstly, there is a stable co-integration relationship between prices of natural rubber futures in China and Japan. Secondly, the time-varying coefficient model is superior to the classical regression model. The influence of price of natural rubber futures in Japan on price of natural rubber futures in China is time-varying. In the long run, the impact of natural rubber futures in Japan on natural rubber futures in China has been gradually increased. Thirdly, the influence of price of natural rubber futures in Japan on price in China is greater than the influence of price in China on price in Japan.

The Rubber Exchange of New York

THE Rubber Exchange of New York was opened for trading in crude rubber futures on February 15, 1926. In the history of commodity trading it occupies a somewhat unique position, being chronologically intermediate. It was preceded for many years by other commodity exchanges, from which it undoubtedly drew a fund of vast experience-the New York and New Orleans cotton exchanges, the coffee, sugar, produce, and other exchanges. Its successful establishment gave immediate encouragement to the formation of similar organizations for raw silk, cocoa, metals, jute and burlap, and hides. It will be the express purpose of this article to demonstrate the usefulness and service of The Rubber Exchange to the crude and manufactured rubber industries. No effort will be made to