Rolling-window Causality Tests Research Articles

Energy consumption within policy uncertainty: Considering the climate and economic factors

Climate and economic policy are closely correlated with energy consumption. This study investigates the bi-directional causality between renewable (REC) and non-renewable energy consumption (NEC) and policy uncertainties. The time-varying bootstrap rolling window causality test considers structural changes and parameter instability. The results show that the causality between REC and climate policy uncertainty (CPU) is both negative and positive, which mainly stems from the attitudes of authorities towards climate change. If the Administration is positive for climate change mitigation, the correlation between REC and CPU is positive; otherwise, it is negative. The nexus between NEC and CPU is mainly positive, except during global financial crisis periods. This reflects that climate policies are affected by financial crises due to financial constraints. For comparison, we further analyse the dynamic correlation between energy consumption and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). EPU has a significant negative impact on REC in most subperiods, while it has a positive impact on NEC. This can be explained by the fact that non-renewable energy is cheap and convenient to use during economic downturns. Moreover, crude oil has strategic reserve value, especially in the turmoil periods. Regarding policy implications, harmonious and coherent climate and economic policies are important for energy transition.

Capital flows, economic growth and the real effective exchange rate: Evidence from China

This paper examines the Granger causal relationship between capital flows and economic growth in China over the period 1998Q1–2019Q2, allowing for real effective exchange rate (REER) effects. As parameter instability tests indicate structural changes, we use bootstrap rolling window causality tests, which suggest that the causal nexus between capital flows and GDP growth is time-varying. We find that the causal links between foreign direct investments (FDIs) and GDP growth are hardly affected by the REER, whereas the REER plays a more important role in affecting the causal connections between portfolio investments and other investments and GDP growth. Our results suggest that cumulative portfolio inflows and cumulative other investment inflows harm GDP growth, whereas cumulative portfolio outflows and cumulative other investment outflows positively affect GDP growth.

Çin ve ABD’de Ticaret Politika Belirsizliği ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Bootstrap Rolling Window Yaklaşımı

Two developed countries, namely China and the USA, which have been leaders in world trade in recent years, are making new trade regulations and increasing trade disputes, the intensity of political discourses, the effort to create new trade routes and thus decreasing the possibility of global trade integration, as a result, accumulating academic studies have focused on the study of trade policy uncertainty. For this purpose, in the study, the probable causality relationship between the trade policy uncertainty index and consumer price index data of China and the USA was tried to be determined by the Bootstrap Rolling Window Causality test developed by Balcılar et al. (2010). As a result of empirical studies, it was determined that there is a relationship between CPI and TPU variables in the long term in China and the United States. A one-way causal relationship has emerged from trade policy uncertainty in China to the Consumer Price Index; it has been concluded that there is a two-way causal relationship between trade policy uncertainty and inflation in the United States at certain dates. Considering the findings of the study in which the direction and dates of the causality relationship are determined, it is thought that the study will contribute to the relevant literature. At this point, the main purpose of future studies should be to clearly reveal the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and consumer price index with different econometric methods and examples from different countries.

The dynamic relationship between economic policy uncertainty and substantial economic growth in China

PurposeUnder the background of the overall increase of China's economic policy uncertainty and the urgent need for the transformation and upgrading of the substantial economy, this paper studies the time-varying causality between China's economic policy uncertainty and the growth of the substantial economy through bootstrap rolling window causality test, further refines economic policies and studies the causal differences between different types of economic policies and substantial economic growth, refining the conclusions of previous studies.Design/methodology/approachThis paper first studies the causal relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and substantial economic growth in the full sample period through bootstrap Granger causality test. Then, the paper tests the short-term and long-term stability of the parameters of the VAR model, and it is found that the model parameters are unstable in both the short and long term, so the results of the Granger causality test of the full sample are not credible. Finally, we conduct a dynamic test of the causal relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and substantial economic growth by means of rolling window, so as to comprehensively analyze the dynamic characteristics and sudden changes of the relationship between them.FindingsThe research shows that economic policy uncertainty in China has a significant inhibiting effect on the growth of substantial economy. Growth in the substantial economy will drive up economic policy uncertainty before 2016 and restrain it after that. In addition, this paper further subdivides economic policy uncertainty to explore the causal differences between different types of economic policy uncertainty and substantial economic growth. The test results show that the relationship between them has obvious policy heterogeneity. The fiscal policy uncertainty and the monetary policy uncertainty, as the main policy means in China, has a significant impact on the growth rate of substantial economy in multiple ranges, but the effect time is short. Although trade policy uncertainty has a significant impact on the growth rate of substantial economy only during the financial crisis, the effect lasts for a long time. The impact of exchange rate and capital account policy uncertainty on the growth rate of substantial economy is mainly reflected after 2020.Originality/valueThe values of this paper are as follows: First, the economic policy uncertainty is combined with the growth of substantial economy, which makes up the gap of previous studies. Second, the economic policy uncertainty is further subdivided. The paper explores the causal differences between different types of economic policy uncertainties and the growth of substantial economy, so as to make the research more detailed. Finally, different from the previous static analysis, this paper uses dynamic model to examine the relationship between China's economic policy uncertainty and the growth of substantial economy from a dynamic perspective, with richer research conclusions.

Connectedness between oil and agricultural commodity prices during tranquil and volatile period. Is crude oil a victim indeed?

Increasing financialization of energy and commodity markets offer a variety of tradeoff for the investors and consumers. On the one hand, this increased financialization of the two markets helps investors design a well-diversified investment portfolio with assets from different asset categories. However, at the same time, this increases the connectedness between the two markets significantly, which may have strong implications for investors and consumers. In this paper, we examine the long-term connectedness and causality between Crude oil and agricultural commodity prices. The advantage of long-term time series is that we may be able to uncover the demand and supply shocks that originated in both markets during the tranquil period and the shocks during the volatile period such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, we employ the full bootstrap sample and rolling window causality tests primarily. Our results are surprisingly different from most of the studies that have held oil prices responsible for causing changes in agricultural commodity prices (ACP). In contrast, our results confirm the presence of bidirectional causality and show that Oil prices are as much affected by the ACP as vice versa. This significant reverse causality running from ACP to Oil prices can open up a completely new interpretation domain. Finally, it is surprisingly interesting that both ACP and Oil prices remain immune to the shocks that originated in both markets during the entire time period of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Turkey Economy Financial Development and Energy Consumption Relationship Analysis with Asymmetric and Rolling Window Causality Tests

Bu çalışmada büyümenin temel dinamikleri arasında sayılan finansal gelişme ve enerji tüketimi arasındaki ilişki Türkiye ekonomisi için 1980-2015 dönemleri aralığında Hatemi J-Roca (2014) asimetrik nedensellik testi ve Balcılar vd. (2010) kayan pencere nedensellik testi aracılığıyla analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Asimetrik nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre enerji tüketiminin artması finansal gelişmenin azalmasına neden olmaktadır. Kayan pencere nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre ise, enerji tüketiminden finansal gelişmeye 2000 - 2005 yıllarında ve 2015 yılında, finansal gelişmeden ise enerji tüketimine doğru ise yalnızca 2014 yılında nedensellik bulunmaktadır.

Study on the impacts of Shanghai crude oil futures on global oil market and oil industry based on VECM and DAG models

In the present study, the daily settlement data of Shanghai crude oil futures and world’s major crude oils are selected. The role of Shanghai crude oil futures is studied regarding its pricing power and hedging risk. The dynamic relation analysis between Shanghai crude oil futures and international oil market is conducted by using rolling window causality test. The vector error correction model (VECM) and directed acyclic graph (DAG) are used to explore the long-term relationship and identify the contemporaneous causality structure respectively. Then Shanghai crude oil futures’ impacts on other oil price fluctuations are analyzed by using variance decomposition method. The obtained analysis results show that the pricing power of Shanghai crude oil futures is limited compared with the international benchmark oil price, but it has begun to have a contemporaneous influence in the Asian oil market price transmission and better reflect oil supply and demand. Moreover, Shengli crude oil has stronger impact on the pricing mechanism after the listing of Shanghai crude oil futures. Furthermore, it also establishes an effective hedging tool for oil importers and refineries. Therefore, although the Shanghai crude oil futures is still in its initial development stage at present, it provides an important basis for becoming a regional benchmark in Asia and a useful instrument for energy market participants, influencing China’s oil industry in import price and consumption.

COVID-19'un Hisse Senedi Getirileri Üzerindeki Zamanla Değişen Etkisi: Gelişmiş Ülkeler Üzerinde Bootstrap Rolling Window Nedensellik Yönteminden Kanıtlar

This study examines the time-varying impact of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on stock returns by employing the bootstrap rolling window causality test. For this purpose, we use the daily data of COVID-19 confirmed cases and stock returns of six most hard-hit developed countries from the COVID-19 pandemic, namely France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Before investigating the time-varying impact of COVID-19 on stock returns, we first examine the long-run relationship between COVID-19 confirmed cases and stock returns with the Kao panel cointegration method and we find that there exists a long-run relationship between variables. The bootstrap rolling window causality test results show that confirmed cases of COVID-19 have a time-varying impact on stock returns for each country. We also find that among the six developed countries in this study, the impact of daily COVID-19 confirmed cases on stock returns is the least in Germany, while it is the most in Italy. These results are thought to provide important information to market participants.

WHO IS THE CHASER IN CRYPTOCURRENCIES?

This paper explores the interactions between the Bitcoin (BTC) prices in the US and Chinese markets, by employing the bootstrap rolling window causality test. The results reveal that BTC prices behave differently across markets, and also vary with time, which subjects to the theory of price discovery. In other words, the BTC price in one market could precede the other, and vice versa, based on the information advantage. Markets that are more flexible (US) respond sensitively to information, thus, in order to induce the price changes in Chinese markets. The improvements in the economic conditions of the emerging markets have exerted an influential role in global markets. Since the Chinese market possesses a considerable amount of trading volumes, the BTC price in the US can be assumed to chase the BTC price in China. The lead–lag relationship between these two markets also reflects the acknowledgement of the aversion towards the risks involved in accepting BTC as a currency. However, knowing which market reacts the most quickly to new information could prove to be beneficial to regulators who aim to implement a particular BTC price, and, as a result, prevent any arbitrary prices, and eventually stabilize the financial market.

TAX REFORM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS IN INDIA: EVIDENCE FROM THE COINTEGRATION AND ROLLING-WINDOW CAUSALITY

This paper examines the impact of tax reform on the economic growth of India over the period 1975–2017. In order to measure the impact of tax reform on the economic growth, we have used various econometric tools like Maki and combined cointegration tests and the rolling-window causality test in this study. The study revealed that a stable long-run parameter stability relationship exists the series on tax reform but unable to obtain the short-run relationship. Results also revealed that growth-led taxation effects and tax-led-growth do not exist in India. Hence, India needs more policies which will help to remove inefficiencies created by the existing heterogeneous taxation system, revenue rate and inclusion of petroleum products, electricity, liquor and real estate and policymakers should adopt some policies for direct tax which reduce the imbalance in class.

New Evidence for Romania Regarding Dynamic Causality between Military Expenditure and Sustainable Economic Growth

Military spending and sustainable economic development have been widely discussed in recent decades. Especially in Romania, the defense budget is valued at $4.8 billion, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.57%. It is also expected to reach $7.6 billion in 2023, according to a report by Strategic Defense Intelligence. There is no consensus in current research and less attention is paid to Eastern European countries. Considering the significant increase in military spending in Romania in recent years, as well as the occurrence of political events, this paper focuses on the dynamic causal relationship between military spending and sustainable economic growth in Romania. The bootstrap rolling window causality test takes into account the structural changes, and therefore, provides more convincing results. The results indicate negative effects of military expenditure on sustainable economic growth between 1996–1999 and 2002–2004. It can be attributed to the crowding-out effect of public expenditure on private investment. The positive effect between the two variables analyzed is noticed with the accession of Romania to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Conversely, it is found that economic growth does not have a significant effect on military spending in Romania. Policymakers should guard against the crowding out of private consumption and investment due to excessive military spending and ensure to increase military expenditure on the premise of sustainable economic development.

The Causality between Financial Instability and Monetary Policy Uncertainty: Who Predicts Whom?

By employing the bootstrap full-sample Granger causality test and sub-sample rolling window causality test, this paper attempts to disentangle the causal nexus between financial instability and monetary policy uncertainty in the US, Japan, and Greece. The bootstrap full sample causality test reveals that there is unidirectional causality from monetary policy uncertainty to financial instability in the US, while there exists the reverse channel in Japan and Greece. Nonparametric Granger causality test further demonstrates that there is no causal relationship in each country, indicating the potential time-varying relationship between two variables. To allow the dynamic relationship between them, we use the bootstrap sub-sample rolling window Granger causality test and conclude that there are bidirectional causal relationships between financial instability and monetary policy uncertainty in specific subperiods for all three countries, such as during regional and global crisis. Overall, this paper helps us better understand the intricate mechanisms between financial instability and monetary policy uncertainty from the predictive perspective.

The Relationship between the Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity in Turkey: Bootstrap Rolling Window Causality Test

Çevresel bozulmanın bir göstergesi olan ekolojik ayak izi son yıllarda literatürde yer almaya başlamıştır. Bununla birlikte ekonomik gelişme, biyolojik çeşitlilik, ekosistem hizmetleri ve insan refahı arasındaki ilişkilerin karmaşık hale gelmesinden dolayı bu kavramın önemi siyasi mekanizmalar tarafından ihmal edilmiş durumdadır. Bu çalışmada 1961-2016 yılları arasında ekolojik ayak izi ve biyokapasite arasındaki ilişki nedensellik analiz yöntemi ile incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre ilgili yıllarda hem ekolojik kapasiteden biyokapasiteye hem de biyokapasiteden ekolojik kapasiteye nedensellik bulgusuna rastlanmış, bu iki değişkenin uzun dönem de birlikte hareket ettiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Are central bank reserves an important instrument for stability in exchange rates

Purpose- In developing countries, the most important macroeconomic variable shaping individuals' expectations for economic stability is the nominal exchange rate. For this reason, the first impact of central banks monetary policy implementation results comes out at nominal exchange rate. In this study, the relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the gross foreign exchange reserves of the central bank has been investigated. Methodology- In this study, Dickey-Fuller (1981, ADF) and Phillips-Perron (1988, PP) unit root tests, asymmetrical causality test and lastly Bootstrap Rolling Window Causality tests developed by Balcilar et al. (2010) have been used. Findings- There is a causal relationship between the nominal exchange rate and central bank reserves. Central bank interfere in nominal exchange rate with its reserves rather than interest policy. Conclusion- As a result of the empirical analysis, causality has been found from positive shocks coming to nominal exchange rates to positive shocks in central bank gross foreign exchange reserves and from positive shocks formed in central bank gross foreign exchange reserves to negative shocks coming in nominal exchange rate.

Can Insurance Activity Act as a Stimulus of Economic Growth? Evidence from Time-Varying Causality in China

ABSTRACTThis article investigates the nexus between insurance and economic growth in China with a dynamic interactive mechanism to study different time periods. Using quarterly data from 1999 to 2015, the rolling-window causality test provides evidence of bidirectional causality between insurance activity and economic growth. However, the “supply-leading” pattern tends to dominate the “demand-following” pattern, which implies that in China insurance acts as a stimulus of economic growth during most of the period. Property insurance is more effective than life insurance in stimulating economic growth. Some temporary negative impacts from the development of the insurance sector show that China is in the midst of a transition from a closed economy to a more open economy and policy interventions by the government to liberalize the insurance sector. These findings offer several useful insights for policy makers in transition economies and developing countries.

DOES RESERVE ACCUMULATION LEAD TO ENDOGENOUS MONEY SUPPLY IN CHINA?

This study investigates the causality between reserve accumulation and money supply in China over the period of 2000:01–2016:11. The bootstrap Granger full-sample and sub-sample rolling window causality tests are utilized. The full-sample test supports that reserve accumulations lead to significant endogenous money supply. However, the sub-sample test suggests that the endogenous money supply caused by reserve accumulations mostly existed before 2007 when China implemented a compulsory exchange settlement system. Structural changes also exist as a result of the impacts of excess money supply and reserve accumulations, which suggests specific backgrounds should be taken into account when investigating this issue. The rolling window causality test provides a more accurate result when considering structural changes, which proves reserve accumulations are more likely to cause endogenous money supply in a compulsory exchange settlement system. The significant difference before and after 2007 suggests that the ending of the compulsory exchange settlement system is helpful to improve the monetary policy independence.

TESTING THE CAUSALITIES BETWEEN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND THE US STOCK INDICES: APPLICATIONS OF LINEAR AND NONLINEAR APPROACHES

This study aims to investigate the causal relationships between the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index and the US stock indices the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 over the period of 1985M10–2016M12. To this aim, it is applied both linear causality and the nonlinear rolling window causality tests. The long-run analyses are also applied to reveal the elasticities of the US stock indices. The empirical findings indicate that both the linear and the nonlinear approaches support the evidence of causal relationships from the US EPU index to all the US stock indices. Additionally, it is also found some evidences of causal relationships from these three US stock indices to the US EPU index especially between 2008–2013 in the latest financial crisis and in the late 2016. The results indicate that the Nasdaq 100 index is mostly affected from the US EPU index both in the short and long-runs.

Is the tourism–economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations

ABSTRACTThis article explores the time-varying causal nexus between tourism development and economic growth for the top 10 tourist destinations in the world, namely China, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Spain, Turkey, the UK and the United States of America, over the period 1990–2015. To that end, a bootstrap rolling window Granger causality approach based on the modified Granger causality test is used. A new index for tourism activity which combines via principal component analysis the commonly used tourism indicators is also employed. The results of the bootstrap rolling window causality tests reveal that the causal relations between tourism and economic growth vary substantially over time and across countries in terms of both magnitude and direction. It is shown that the causal linkages tend to be more pronounced for a large group of countries following the global financial crisis of 2008. Additionally, Germany, France and China clearly stand out as the countries with the weakest causal nexus, while the UK, Italy and Mexico emerge as the countries that have the strongest causal links. These results have particularly important implications for policymakers.

Does foreign direct investment promote exports in China?

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal link between foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports in China based on the knowledge capital model (KK model, Markusen, 2002).Design/methodology/approachThe bootstrap Granger full-sample and sub-sample rolling window causality test is used to determine whether FDI can promote exports.FindingsThe full-sample causality test indicates no causal relationship from FDI to exports. However, considering structural changes of exports and FDI, the authors’ find that the full-sample test is not reliable. Instead, the authors use the rolling window causality test to revisit the dynamic causal relationship, and the results present significant effects from FDI on exports, mostly around periods in which the proportion of FDI from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan is increasing. Specifically, positive impacts of FDI on exports are stronger than the negative impacts in China.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings in this study suggest a significant time-varying nature of the correlation between FDI and exports. The promotion effect of FDI to exports is proved by the rolling window approach; it thus supports the KK model that divides FDI into lateral FDI and vertical FDI and proves that the constitution of FDI is critical to the relationship between FDI and exports.Practical implicationsChina has been facing adjustment of its economic structure in recent years, and in this situation, increasing the proportion of FDI that can bring advanced production function is critical for the industrial structural adjustment.Originality/valueThis paper uses the bootstrap rolling window causality test to investigate the time-varying nature of the causality between FDI and exports, considering structural changes for the first time. The authors further deepen the previous research and draw a more realistic conclusion.

ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND HOUSING RETURNS IN GERMANY: EVIDENCE FROM A BOOTSTRAP ROLLING WINDOW

The purpose of this investigation is to research the causal link between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and the housing returns (HR) in Germany. In the estimated vector autoregressive models, we test its stability and find the short-run relationship between HR and EPU is unstable. As a result, a time-varying approach (bootstrap rolling window causality test) is utilized to revisit the dynamic causal link, and we find EPU has no impact on HR due to the stability of the real estate market in Germany. HR does not have significant effects on EPU in most time periods. However, significant feedback in several sub-periods (both positive and negative) are found from HR to EPU, which indicates the causal link from HR to EPU varies over time. The empirical results do not support the general equilibrium model of government policy choices that indicate EPU does not play a role in the real estate market. The basic conclusion is that the real estate market shows its stability due to the social welfare nature and the rational institutional arrangement of the real estate in Germany, and the real estate market also shows its importance that it has significant effect on the economic policy choice in some periods when negative external shocks occur.