Roll-call Votes Research Articles

From fringe to front? Assessing the voting influence of the radical right in the European Parliament

Scholars have long believed that the influence of radical right parties in the European Parliament was indirect due to their internal heterogeneity, limited involvement in parliamentary activities, and the existence of a cordon sanitaire. However, the consolidation of these parties, marked by the Identity and Democracy group becoming the fourth largest group in 2019, raises concerns about their impact on European Union decision-making. This article seeks to understand the extent and conditions under which the radical right group in the European Parliament can influence policymaking. By analysing roll-call votes from the 9th term (2019 to 2024), we introduce a measure of voting influence, operationalised as the ability of a party group to sway the outcome of a vote in plenary. Our analysis reveals that while the radical right group frequently joins winning majorities in the European Parliament, its voting influence remains limited because of the low levels of conflict in plenary.

European radical left foreign policy after the invasion of Ukraine: shifts in assertiveness towards Russia

ABSTRACT The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has prompted a closer examination of parties’ attitudes towards the Putin regime. While research has examined the connections of the EU's far-right with Russia, less attention has been given to the stances of Radical Left Parties (RLPs). We close this gap by analysing Roll Call Votes (RCVs) in the European Parliament. Our findings indicate that RLPs displayed the lowest levels of assertiveness towards Russia before 2022, being even less assertive than other Eurosceptic groups. RLPs significantly increased their assertiveness after the invasion, bringing them closer to the EP mainstream. However, some divergence in assertiveness towards Russia existed within the RLPs before 2022 and remains relevant after the invasion, with the Traditional/Communist parties standing closer to Russia than radical New Left/Democratic Socialist parties.

Your silence speaks volumes: Weak states and strategic absence in the UN General Assembly

AbstractCountry participation in one-state, one-vote forums like the United Nations General Assembly often reflects underlying power asymmetries and endogenous political processes. Voting alignment is undoubtedly an important preference indicator. However, this paper contends that it is incomplete; silence is politically significant as well. Weak states use absence as a form of institutional power that shields them from geopolitical pressure and competing-principals problems. While abstention is a public signal of neutrality that undercuts voting unanimity, the ambiguous intent of absence makes it a distinct form of political expression. We examine the politics of absences at the General Assembly, highlighting how states may be strategically absent from select votes for political reasons. Building on the Bailey et al. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61(2), 430–456, 2017 roll-call voting data, we distinguish strategic absences from other types of absence and provide evidence that such behavior is linked to US interests and competing-principals problems. Taking these non-random reasons for missingness into account provides a fuller picture of how weak states engage with international institutions and highlights how silence can be a consequence of larger political processes.

More than neighbours: Assessing crisis narratives of Nordic-Baltic elites in the context of European Union’s eastern border

Over the last decade, the European Union has faced multiple crises that have affected the direction and the nature of the integration process. This study focuses on the challenges posed by the Belarusian-EU border crisis (2021) and the proposed travel restrictions towards Russian citizens (2022) in the context of the Nordic-Baltic EU member states. The study addresses their impact through the double prisms of regionality and level of governance. The study looks at how national elite narratives on borders and the movement of people travel to the supranational context, in this case the European Parliament. While the Parliament is often overlooked in favour of the Council or the Commission, this study regards it as an effective analytical bridge between domestic and supranational decision-making levels. To achieve its empirical goals the study relies on governments’ official communiques, while the parliamentary analysis is based on pre-vote debates and Parliament’s roll-call votes. The article finds that, while the national narratives highlight a growing convergence of governmental narratives in adopting or justifying restrictive bordering measures, the EP debates and votes highlight the relevance of ideology and partisanship when it comes to the issue and the growing significance of the gap between mainstream and non-mainstream forces.

Jam-Barrel Politics

Abstract This paper studies the executive-legislative exchange of centrally allocated benefits (jam) for legislative support in Colombia using data from road building projects, legislative roll-call votes, and a leaked database which uncovered the assignment of road contracts to individual legislators. We draw hypotheses from a model in which an executive spreads jam to sway legislators. We document that assigned projects had excess costs, legislators targeted were more likely to be swing voters in congress, and legislators increased their support for the executive after their contracts were signed. The results are driven by legislators representing remote regions and constituencies with weaker political institutions.

Laying Down The Principles: How Local Socialist Achievements Spurred National Bourgeois Support for Noncontributory Pensions

abstract: The authors develop a perspective of locally embedded welfare state development to explain how relatively weak national political actors can, nonetheless, shape national policy over time by pursuing local reforms. Empirically, the authors assess their argument by using municipality-level representative shares, data on noncontributory pension reforms, roll-call votes from parliament, and archival material from early twentieth-century Norway, in which several local governments introduced noncontributory old-age pensions before Norway adopted a national scheme. The authors show, first, how nationally underrepresented but highly institutionalized socialist parties with geographically concentrated support introduced local pensions. Over time, these parties thus shaped the possibility space for national reform, effectively locking the national policy agenda into a pension system preferred by the socialists—namely, noncontributory pensions. Citing high municipality-debt pressures in their constituencies, bourgeois politicians from districts with local pensions eventually supported and promoted national-level pension reform. This support, in turn, spurred the cross-class alliance required to establish a national noncontributory pension system.

An evaluation of the efficiency of Turkic cooperation in the United Nations General Assembly

This study investigates the dynamics of voting cohesion in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) by conducting a comparative analysis of the European Union (EU), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). The research aims to assess the external voting cohesion of OTS member states in relation to the EU and CIS, utilizing the benchmark of collective voting in the UNGA as an indicator. The historical context underscores the significance of regional organizations in fostering collaboration among member countries, particularly in the realms of economics, security, and socioeconomic growth. The focus of this study on the OTS arises from the unique geopolitical and historical circumstances of Turkic-speaking nations dispersed globally. The methodology employs a comprehensive analysis of UNGA roll-call votes, utilizing data spanning from 1992 to 2019. The study employs the voting cohesion measurement proposed by Hosli et al. (2010), incorporating a scoring system to quantify cohesion. Results indicate that, compared to the CIS, the OTS demonstrates slightly higher voting cohesion, with a discernible increasing trend over the years. The EU, exhibiting the highest level of cohesion, provides a reference point for potential advancements in the OTS's institutional structures and collaborative efforts. The findings suggest that the OTS has the potential to achieve EU-level cohesion with continued improvements in institutional frameworks and enhanced cooperation among member states. In conclusion, this study contributes to the understanding of international cooperation dynamics, emphasizing the evolving role of regional organizations in shaping voting behaviour at the global stage. The findings underscore the potential for increased cohesion within the OTS, positioning it as a significant player in international diplomacy.

Recorded votes as attention booster: How opposition parties use roll calls and nonrecorded votes for position taking in the German Bundestag, 2017–21

The article investigates roll‐call request and its effects on opposition‐voting behavior. It argues that parties use roll‐call votes (RCVs) as a position‐taking instrument to boost public attention for issues they care about. This argument implies that RCVs are requested strategically but opposition behavior should not differ systematically between recorded and nonrecorded votes. Studying all voting activities of the 19th German Bundestag (2017–21), the analysis shows that RCVs are more likely on high‐salience issues, more important motion types, and to some extent opposition motions. Voting conforms to the position‐taking model as opposition parties are less likely to vote with the government on their own motions and more important motion types. However, opposition behavior does not differ systematically between recorded and nonrecorded votes suggesting that parties act consistently across all votes. Thus, RCVs provide valid measures for studying interparty competition in parliament despite their selective sampling properties.

Fratelli d’Italia in the European Parliament: between radicalism and conservatism

ABSTRACT This article studies the behaviour of Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) in the European Parliament (EP). Analysing a large sample of roll-call votes in the ninth EP (2019–2022), together with a selected sample of highly significant votes on COVID-19 and post-pandemic recovery, it shows that FdI has the strongest voting agreement with its allies in the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group and votes more often with the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) than with the more extreme Identity and Democracy (ID) group. FdI is often part of the winning coalition, shaping legislation or seeking to influence the policy agenda of the EU. On COVID-19 and post-pandemic votes, FdI often took a moderate approach on key issues, and did so even when it was the only party in opposition to the Draghi executive in Rome. At the same time, FdI has not renounced its ideological battles on specific policies, such as those having to do with socio-cultural issues and, to some extent, EU institutional issues. Yet, notwithstanding the evidence of more moderate and cooperative behaviour at the EU level, FdI may find it challenging to fully recast itself as a conservative, rather than a radical-right party, at the national level.

After the Genocide: Proximity to Victims and Support for Punishing Ingroup Crimes

What explains divergent transitional justice preferences among political elites after genocide? We argue that elite preferences vary with their proximity to the victimized group. Individuals who know the victims personally and/or have witnessed violence against them may be more likely to support punishing the perpetrators, possibly because they experience collective guilt. We support this argument using an original biographical dataset on the members of the West German parliament, linking their location and experiences during the Third Reich to free roll-call votes on extending the statute of limitations for murder in 1965–69. We find that proximity to synagogues, particularly those attacked in November 1938, predicts support for extending the statute, conditional on party, state, mandate type, denomination, and a host of personal attributes. We also find significantly lower support for extending the statute among former NSDAP members. Our findings highlight the importance of bystander experiences in shaping support for retributive justice.

Putin’s puppets in the West? The far right’s reaction to the 2022 Russian (re)invasion of Ukraine

While an argument that the far right supports Putin is popular, comparative analysis of far-right parties’ stances on Russia is generally lacking. In the wake of the 2022 Russian (re)invasion of Ukraine, this becomes increasingly problematic. This study aims to fill this gap and provide an initial answer(s) to an increasingly important question of who supports Putin's Russia within the Western world. First, I examine the immediate reactions to the 2022 (re)invasion of far-right parties across the European Union. Based on the findings, new sub-categories within the far right in terms of stances on Putin’s Russia are proposed. Second, I provide a comparative analysis of the roll-call votes in the European Parliament on resolutions condemning Russia’s actions and test the proposed sub-categories.

Black lives matter messaging across multiple congressional communication mediums

ABSTRACT After the murder of George Floyd in May 2020 the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement had a second, large attention surge. Media focus intensified and public opinion of the movement was the most supportive it had ever been. Legislators got involved too, taking to their e-newsletters, Facebook, Twitter, and press releases to publicize support or opposition to the movement. Using those four mediums we ask which sorts of legislators were more or less likely to make public their position, and how these trends vary by medium. Partisanship drives the biggest differences, but that within parties, legislators with more extreme roll-call voting histories, and those from districts expressing greater perceptions of racism tend to be more likely to discuss their positions in explicit and oblique ways. Black legislators and those with greater shares of Black constituents do not seem to have distinct patterns of signaling support or opposition.

Roll-call voting under random seating assignment

AbstractSocial connections between individuals can profoundly impact their political behavior. A growing body of research on legislative politics examines how spatial proximity to fellow legislators affects voting behavior within the institution. However, studies that examine this question often suffer from a fundamental identification problem in which proximity effects may reflect actual behavioral diffusion between members or, instead, homophily, in which legislators of a similar political feather flock together. We overcome this observational equivalence by exploiting a unique random seating lottery for seating assignments in the world's oldest existing parliament, Iceland's national legislature, Alþingi. Utilizing this naturally occurring randomization, we employ spatial analyses of more than 20,000 estimates of spatial dependence and find little evidence that seating proximity leads to similar voting behavior by members in this legislative context.

A Right Restricted: Racial Threat and the Sponsorship of Restrictive Voting Laws

AbstractIn the aftermath of the United States’ 2020 presidential election, state legislatures have introduced and passed an unprecedented number of restrictive voting bills. While past research has looked at the state-level drivers of restrictive voting legislation, this project explores what factors predict which legislators within states push for these laws. Specifically, I ask whether district-level characteristics predict when lawmakers use bill sponsorship to send messages about their positions beyond those sent by simple roll-call votes. I use theories of geographical threat and racial resentment to predict where sponsorship of these bills is most likely. My results tie these theoretical expectations to observed legislative activity: the whitest state legislative districts in the least-white states were the most likely to be represented by lawmakers who sponsored restrictive bills, as were districts with the most racially resentful white residents. I conclude that, despite lawmakers justifying these restrictive laws by claiming that fraud is a major problem, race and racism are inherently tied to the introduction and passage of these bills. This raises important questions about commitments to multiracial democracy.

Electoral Proximity and Issue-Specific Responsiveness

Abstract Do elections increase responsiveness of legislators to their constituents? Previous studies that examine the effect of electoral proximity have been unable to hold the roll-call agenda constant and control for differences in unobserved covariates between legislators. This paper utilizes a natural experiment in four state legislatures—Arkansas, Illinois, Florida, and Texas—where term length was randomly assigned. This design compares the responsiveness to constituency opinion of those randomly assigned to a two-year term to those assigned a four-year term on different issue areas, like the economy, environment, and crime. I find no evidence for an electoral proximity effect on responsiveness. In addition, in the Illinois State Senate, the causal effect of electoral proximity on responsiveness is measured on several individual roll-call votes, including the legalization of medical marijuana and gay marriage.

The Politics of Time: The Political Origins of Working-Time Regulation

AbstractTowards the end of the nineteenth century, leisure was reserved for the few. By the end of the twentieth century, however, most workers had a regulated normal working time of 40 or fewer hours per week, annual paid leave, and overtime compensation. In this paper, I investigate which political parties brought forth these changes – which party constellations supported or opposed working-time reforms and argue that sector and class differences drive party preferences. Lower-class and urban middle-class workers demanded regulation as demand for leisure increased with income. In contrast, employers and farmers opposed such reforms. Accordingly, the study argues that socialist and social-liberal parties were inclined to support leisure-securing working-time reforms, whereas conservative and farmer parties opposed them. Due to their linkages with workers and farmers, liberal parties may be divided into a rural constituency that tends to oppose working-time reforms and an urban constituency that supports them. I test these expectations using parliamentary data: 65 roll-call votes from Norway between 1880 and 1940, combined with analysis of major reforms and legislative appeals. Finally, I undertake a generalization test using country-level reform data from 33 democracies between 1880 and 2010. Results generally fall in line with expectations, and the pattern is stable over time.

Politics and eminent domain: Evidence from the 1879 California constitution

This paper explores the politics of eminent domain, using a specific historical episode: the enactment of the new California constitution in 1879. It presents evidence that the failure of a constitutional provision that would have codified eminent domain powers for water development resulted from a complex interchange of economic interests among farmers, miners, and urban residents. This evidence was manifested in delegate behavior on the floor of the constitutional convention in 1878, including various roll-call votes, which are subjected to an econometric analysis. The results have implications for the interpretation of legislative eminent domain decisions, and the degree to which economic development processes are shaped by the institutional environment in which they occur.

Anti-war or alliance? roll-call votes of the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea on war issues (2003–2007)

Anti-war or alliance? roll-call votes of the National Assembly of the Republic of Korea on war issues (2003–2007)

At the Intersection of Gender and Party: Legislative Freedom

This paper examines the conditional effects of legislator gender, party, and key district-level characteristics on patterns of roll-call votes. I propose and test a theory of legislative freedom conceptualized as a member of Congress’s ability to defect from their party in roll-call votes. I argue that women members of Congress (MCs) will be more able to exercise legislative freedom in women-friendly districts. I expect both Democratic and Republican women MCs representing women-friendly districts will be more likely than those representing districts that are less women-friendly to defect from party and that the women-friendly district effect will be stronger for Republican women MCs. To test these hypotheses, I use roll-call voting data, women-friendly district data (Palmer and Simon 2006), and original data collected on members of the U.S. House beginning with the 103rd Congress. In this paper, I further explore the proposed theory of legislative freedom to examine recent high-profile cases of women MCs defecting from the Republican party and the conditions in which they exercise this freedom.

Social mobility and education policy: a district-level analysis of legislative behavior

Abstract A vast literature has examined how perceptions of mobility shape demand for redistribution. These studies generally refer to contemporaneous tax policies demanded by those directly impacted. But social mobility is often measured as changes across generations. To account for these intergenerational effects, our analysis focuses on educational policies. We examine how social mobility at the district level explains legislative support for inclusive education policies. We first develop an electoral competition model where voters are altruistic parents, politicians are office seeking and the future economic status of the children is affected both by the degree of income mobility and by public education policies. We then analyze a newly compiled dataset of roll-call votes on California education legislation matched with electoral district levels of income mobility. In line with the model, our analysis suggests that upward mobility in a district negatively predicts legislative support for redistributive education bills.