Role Of Certainty Research Articles

The Role of Certainty in a Two-Person Volunteer’s Dilemma

In the standard volunteer’s dilemma (VoD), a single prosocial act (i.e., volunteering) yields the optimal overall outcome. Whereas the volunteer’s outcome is certain, the defector’s outcome depends on what others do. This research addressed the confounding of prosocial responses with uncertainty avoidance in the standard VoD. In Experiment 1, participants (N = 102) considered 18 hypothetical one-shot two-person VoD scenarios with certain, risky, and uncertain outcomes when volunteering. In Experiment 2, participants (N = 496) considered three hypothetical one-shot two-person VoD scenarios; a certain VoD and two uncertain VoDs of which one had a lower expected collective outcome of volunteering than the certain VoD and the other a higher one. Results suggest that volunteering does not reflect a desire to avoid uncertainty but to maximize expected collective outcomes, reinforcing the assumption that the high volunteering rates we see in a standard VoD are due to social/moral preferences and social projection.

A new method for studying the halo effect in teachers' judgement and its antecedents: Bringing outthe role of certainty.

In academic contexts, teachers' judgements are central to instruction and have many consequences for students' self-perceptions. Understanding the cognitive biases that may exist in teachers' judgements is thus of central importance. This paper presents two studies in which we aimed to investigate the presence of a halo effect in teachers' judgements (Study 1 and Study 2) and to clarify the conditions for the emergence of this halo effect by analysing the influence of judgement certainty (Study 2). A major contribution of these studies was to provide a new measure of the halo effect in order to achieve these goals. In the first study, 25 teachers and their 199 students were asked to complete the measures, while the second study sample was composed of 20 teachers and their 180 students. To analyse the presence of the halo effect in teachers' judgements in the two studies, scholastic achievement was measured using various standardized French language tests. Teachers were asked to indicate, for each of their students, whether they thought the student would answer correctly or incorrectly for each item on the standardized tests. In Study 2, to analyse the influence of judgement certainty, the teachers were asked to indicate after each item how certain they were about their response. The results of both studies revealed the presence of a halo effect in teachers' judgements for each measure used (i.e., comparison of correlations, factorial analyses, and the new measure comparing variance scores), as the teachers' judgements were more homogeneous than the students' actual achievement levels. Furthermore, using the new measure, the second study revealed that high judgement certainty resulted in a stronger halo effect.

The Role of Certainty

I argue that we can achieve certainty about some empirical propositions. When someone is having a migraine and attending to it, she can be certain that she is in pain. I show that examples intended to undermine claims of certainty or to raise doubts about the reliability of introspection do not touch such cases. Traditional foundationalists have held that epistemically certain beliefs can serve as the basis for all one’s other justified beliefs. This is not so, because those beliefs that are certain are spread too thinly to serve as broad justificatory foundations. Certainty has a different role. The best explanation for the existence of epistemically certain empirical beliefs is experientialism, the view that nondoxastic sensory experiences can justify beliefs. Experientialism then offers a framework for showing how the stream of sensory experiences can provide an adequate basis for the justification of our ordinary beliefs about the external world.

Certainty of paternity in two coucal species with divergent sex roles: the devil takes the hindmost

BackgroundCertainty of paternity is considered an important factor in the evolution of paternal care. Several meta-analyses across birds support this idea, particularly for species with altricial young. However, the role of certainty of paternity in the evolution and maintenance of exclusive paternal care in the black coucal (Centropus grillii), which is the only known altricial bird species with male-only care, is not well understood. Here we investigated whether the differences in levels of paternal care in the black coucal and its sympatric congener, the bi-parental white-browed coucal (Centropus superciliosus), are shaped by extra-pair paternity.ResultsWe found that male black coucals experienced a substantially higher loss of paternity than white-browed coucals. Further, unlike any previously reported bird species, extra-pair offspring in black coucals represented mainly the last hatchlings of the broods, and these last hatchlings were more likely to disappear during partial-brood loss.ConclusionThe results suggest that exclusive paternal care in black coucals is not maintained by male certainty of parentage, and extra-pair fertilizations are unlikely to be a female strategy for seeking ‘good genes’. Extra-pair paternity in black coucals may reflect the inability of males to guard and copulate with the female after the onset of incubation, and a female strategy to demonstrate her commitment to other males of her social group.

Categorical biases in spatial memory: the role of certainty.

Memories for spatial locations often show systematic errors toward the central value of the surrounding region. The Category Adjustment (CA) model suggests that this bias is due to a Bayesian combination of categorical and metric information, which offers an optimal solution under conditions of uncertainty (Huttenlocher, Hedges, & Duncan, 1991). A fundamental assumption of this model is that representations of locations are unbiased but uncertain; during combination, greater metric uncertainty results in relatively greater emphasis on categorical information, ultimately leading to increased bias (but also minimizing error across multiple estimates). Sampaio and Wang (2009) have demonstrated that metric information is not lost during this combination process, supporting the CA model's assumption that underlying spatial representations are undistorted. Here, we examine the 2nd half of the CA model's central assumption: that increasing metric uncertainty drives the combination process. Participants recognized point locations within visually complex images in a 4-choice task. Our results indicate that individuals recognized the correct location over other, biased alternatives, confirming that metric information is unbiased at the time of retrieval. In addition, we found that, when participants make errors, they are more likely to select locations that are biased toward the category prototype. In Experiment 2, we demonstrate that categorically biased locations are most likely to be chosen under conditions of uncertainty. Indeed, under these conditions, categorically biased locations were chosen more frequently than the correct location. These results suggest that systematic errors are the result of combination across multiple levels of spatial representations that are undistorted but somewhat uncertain.

A Certain Future: Epistemicity, Prediction, and Assertion in Iberian Spanish Future Expression

Abstract The choice of future construction in Romance languages with variable expression is complex, and several factors have been shown or hypothesized to influence this choice (e.g. Aaron 2006, 2010 and Poplack & Malvar 2007). One factor stands out time and time again, though scholars do not always associate it with the same form: certainty. Using corpus-based quantitative methods, the role of certainty in Iberian Spanish future form variation is examined. The semantics of futurity and epistemic modality are discussed, with particular reference to the Spanish synthetic, or morphological, future. Then, the onset of non-future-reference use of the Synthetic Future as an epistemic marker is described, and viewed in light of the role of epistemicity in the possible strengthening of the semantics of “certainty” with the Spanish Periphrastic Future. Finally, diachronic evidence from distributional patterns in grammatical person, verb class and clause type is presented, which suggests that speakers associate the periphrastic construction with “certainty” and, increasingly, the synthetic construction with “uncertainty.” It is suggested that functional competition with innovative forms can breathe new life into older forms, sparking further grammaticalization.

Consistently inconsistent: The role of certainty, acceptability and scale in choice

Recently emerging in the stated preference literature as methods for better representing behaviour are choice certainty calibration and alternative acceptability. This paper finds that the amount of idiosyncratic error in the context of automobile choice is significant and can be explained by choice task certainty; which is a function of several respondent characteristics. However, it also finds that no theoretical framework exists for how these techniques should be applied and that econometric differences may be responsible for improvements in model fit, rather than better behavioural representation. Raising several questions about certainty indexing, researchers are advised to apply such methods cautiously.

Psychotic-Like or Unusual Subjective Experiences? The role of certainty in the appraisal of the subclinical psychotic phenotype

The multi-dimensional features of Unusual Subjective Experiences (USEs) may be more accurate indicators of psychosis-proneness than simple frequency count. We tested whether subjective certainty or uncertainty of the occurrence of USEs can influence perceived wellbeing. Five hundred and four undergraduate students completed measures of delusion- and hallucination-proneness, general health and emotional processing. Participants' responses on the delusion- and hallucination-proneness scales were dichotomized on the basis of their certainty level. Results showed that, USEs rated with certainty were associated with poor self-perceived health and difficult emotional processing, while those rated with uncertainty were not. Certainty of USEs was associated with increased distress and may be important in characterizing psychopathological significance. Specific characteristics associated with USEs may be more important than their frequency in predicting psychosis risk.

How Task Experience Influences Students' Performance Expectancies: The Role of Certainty

The importance of performance expectancies for predicting behavior has long been highlighted in research on expectancy-value models. These models do not take into account that expectancies may vary in terms of their certainty. The study tested the following predictions: task experience leads to a higher certainty of expectancies; certainty and mean expectancies are empirically distinguishable; and expectancies held with high certainty are more accurate for predicting performance. 273 Grade 8 students reported their performance expectancy and the certainty of expectation with regard to a mathematics examination immediately before and after the examination. Actual grades on the examination were also assessed. The results supported the predictions: there was an increase in certainty between the two times of measurement; expectancies and certainty were unrelated at both times of measurement; and for students initially reporting higher certainty, the accuracy of the performance expectancy (i.e., the relation between expectancy and performance) was higher than for students reporting lower certainty. Given lower certainty, the accuracy increased after the students had experience with the examination. The data indicate that it may be useful to include certainty as an additional variable in expectancy-value models.

The Role of Certainty, Confidence, and Critical Thinking in the Diagnostic Process: Good Luck or Good Thinking?

The Role of Certainty, Confidence, and Critical Thinking in the Diagnostic Process: Good Luck or Good Thinking?

The uncertainty is killing me: Self-triage decision making and information availability

Accurate self-triage is important for both the individual’s health, and the efficacy and efficiency of the health care system. Ambiguity and partial information from sources of questionable fidelity may contribute to the difficulties laypersons experience in making care-seeking decisions. The role of certainty in diagnostic information was investigated using hypothetical health threat scenarios. Sixty healthy undergraduates were asked to indicate how urgently they would seek care under the circumstances depicted in these scenarios. Information relating to certainty interacted with threat severity in a logical pattern, such that increased certainty of high severity threat prompted more urgent care-seeking response, while reduced certainty of lower severity threats increases urgency. Minor reductions in certainty reduced urgency of response for high severity threats. Implications of these results on health information resources and public services are discussed.

Indirect versus Direct Evidence in U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Recommendations

Letters6 May 2008Indirect versus Direct Evidence in U.S. Preventive Services Task Force RecommendationsNed Calonge, MD, MPH, Diana B. Petitti, MD, MPH, and Mary B. Barton, MD, MPPNed Calonge, MD, MPHFrom the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, Rockville, MD 20850.Search for more papers by this author, Diana B. Petitti, MD, MPHFrom the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, Rockville, MD 20850.Search for more papers by this author, and Mary B. Barton, MD, MPPFrom the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, Rockville, MD 20850.Search for more papers by this authorAuthor, Article, and Disclosure Informationhttps://doi.org/10.7326/0003-4819-148-9-200805060-00014 SectionsAboutFull TextPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissions ShareFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail IN RESPONSE:We appreciate Dr. Hahn's thoughtful consideration of the potential distinctions between and within USPSTF recommendation grade letters and the role of certainty in arriving at the recommendation grade.His suggestion that the USPSTF never assign any grade higher than B to a recommendation based on the chain-of-evidence approach (in fact, his proposal would create a new B-minus category for any positive recommendation made on the basis of indirect evidence) implies that only evidence from randomized trials merits a judgment that “certainty of net benefit is high.” In at least some cases, randomized trials of preventive services are not ... Author, Article, and Disclosure InformationAuthors: Ned Calonge, MD, MPH; Diana B. Petitti, MD, MPH; Mary B. Barton, MD, MPPAffiliations: From the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, Rockville, MD 20850.Disclosures: None disclosed. PreviousarticleNextarticle Advertisement FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsSee AlsoUpdate on the Methods of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force: Estimating Certainty and Magnitude of Net Benefit George F. Sawaya , Janelle Guirguis-Blake , Michael LeFevre , Russell Harris , Diana Petitti , and Indirect Versus Direct Evidence in U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Recommendations David L. Hahn Metrics Cited byPrevalence and pattern of comorbidities in chronic rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases: the COMORD studyChanging the housing environment to reduce obesity in public housing residents: a cluster randomized trialPerioperative Management of Non-diabetic Patients with Hyperglycaemia (Stress-Induced Hyperglycaemia) 6 May 2008Volume 148, Issue 9Page: 708KeywordsConflicts of interestHIVHIV infectionsHIV preventionLung and intrathoracic tumorsMorbidityMortalityPregnancyRandomized trialsSmoking cessation ePublished: 6 May 2008 Issue Published: 6 May 2008 Copyright & PermissionsCopyright © 2008 by American College of Physicians. All Rights Reserved.PDF downloadLoading ...