Role Of Asymptomatic Carriers Research Articles

The role of asymptomatic carriers on the dynamics of a lymphatic filariasis model incorporating control strategies

This study presents a mathematical model to investigate the patterns of transmission in lymphatic filariasis. The model considers chronic, acute, and asymptomatic individuals and integrates key control strategies. Random synthetic data is generated robustly through numerical solutions to closely replicate real-world scenarios and encompass uncertainties. The synthetic data adheres to a Gaussian distribution to ensure validity and reliability. Following the derivation of the basic and effective reproduction number using the next generation matrix approach, Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) algorithm is utilized to assess the parameters that significantly influence the model outputs. The study examine the trajectories of different population compartments through numerical simulations over time, with particular emphasis on the role played by asymptomatic individuals in the transmission of the disease. To assess the potential for disease elimination, the study introduces a range of strategies involving protective measures, treatment interventions, and mosquito control. These strategies are determined through sensitivity analysis. The findings demonstrate that the simultaneous implementation of all control measures has a noteworthy effect in managing lymphatic filariasis. In conclusion, the proposed model enhances understanding of lymphatic filariasis dynamics and informs effective control strategies.

A Mathematical Model for Zika Virus Infection and Microcephaly Risk Considering Sexual and Vertical Transmission

We establish a compartmental model for Zika virus disease transmission, with particular attention paid to microcephaly, the main threat of the disease. To this end, we consider separate microcephaly-related compartments for affected infants, as well as the role of asymptomatic carriers, the influence of seasonality and transmission through sexual contact. We determine the basic reproduction number of the corresponding time-dependent model and time-constant model and study the dependence of this value on the mosquito-related parameters. In addition, we demonstrate the global stability of the disease-free periodic solution if R0<1, whereas the disease persists when R0>1. We fit our model to data from Colombia between 2015 and 2017 as a case study. The fitting is used to figure out how sexual transmission affects the number of cases among women as well as the number of microcephaly cases. Our sensitivity analyses conclude that the most effective ways to prevent Zika-related microcephaly cases are preventing mosquito bites and controlling mosquito populations, as well as providing protection during sexual contact.

Hidden Perils: Diagnosing Asymptomatic Disease Carriers

COVID-19, a disease induced by SARS-CoV-2, became a worldwide pandemic while SARS, a disease induced by a closely related virus, SARS-CoV, was successfully contained. This is because COVID-19, unlike SARS, can be spread by people who do not display any symptoms of disease, either because they are in the early stages of the infection or because their infection remains clinically silent. This research article traces the complex history of the diagnosis of symptom-free (or asymptomatic) carriers of pathogens, a term inseparably linked to the rise of the laboratory diagnosis of pathogens. Only such a diagnosis can reveal that an apparently healthy individual harbours dangerous bacteria, parasites, or viruses. The article begins with the iconic story of ‘Typhoid Mary’, a New York cook found to be an asymptomatic carrier of typhoid fever microbes. It then discusses divergent approaches to the treatment of symptom-free carriers of hookworm and controversies around the screening of HIV carriers, especially before the development of anti-retroviral treatments. It concludes with a presentation of the debates on the role of asymptomatic carriers in the spread of COVID-19 and of the differences between the approaches of countries seeking to eliminate this disease, a goal that itself entails tracing and isolation of all asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus, and those trying to contain it, an approach that tolerates the presence of a limited number of ‘invisible’ virus carriers.

Characterisation of asymptomatic patients and efficacy of preventive measures for SARS-CoV-2 infection in a large population of Southern Italy: a cohort study

BackgroundThe SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has infected millions of people and has caused more than 2.30 million deaths worldwide to date. Several doubts arise about the role of asymptomatic carriers in virus...

The influence of immune individuals in disease spread evaluated by cellular automaton and genetic algorithm

Background and objective: One of the main goals of epidemiological studies is to build models capable of forecasting the prevalence of a contagious disease, in order to propose public health policies for combating its propagation. Here, the aim is to evaluate the influence of immune individuals in the processes of contagion and recovery from varicella. This influence is usually neglected.Methods: An epidemic model based on probabilistic cellular automaton is introduced. By using a genetic algorithm, the values of three parameters of this model are determined from data of prevalence of varicella in Belgium and Italy, in a pre-vaccination period.Results: This methodology can predict the varicella prevalence (with average relative error of 2%−4%) in these two European countries. Belgium data can be explained by ignoring the role of immune individuals in the infection propagation; however, Italy data can be explained by considering contagion exclusively mediated by immune individuals.Conclusions: The role of immune individuals should be accurately delineated in investigations on the dynamics of disease propagation. In addition, the proposed methodology can be adapted for evaluating, for instance, the role of asymptomatic carriers in the novel coronavirus spread.

The time scale of asymptomatic transmission affects estimates of epidemic potential in the COVID-19 outbreak

The role of asymptomatic carriers in transmission poses challenges for control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Study of asymptomatic transmission and implications for surveillance and disease burden are ongoing, but there has been little study of the implications of asymptomatic transmission on dynamics of disease. We use a mathematical framework to evaluate expected effects of asymptomatic transmission on the basic reproduction number R0 (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases generated by an average primary case in a fully susceptible population) and the fraction of new secondary cases attributable to asymptomatic individuals. If the generation-interval distribution of asymptomatic transmission differs from that of symptomatic transmission, then estimates of the basic reproduction number which do not explicitly account for asymptomatic cases may be systematically biased. Specifically, if asymptomatic cases have a shorter generation interval than symptomatic cases, R0 will be over-estimated, and if they have a longer generation interval, R0 will be under-estimated. Estimates of the realized proportion of asymptomatic transmission during the exponential phase also depend on asymptomatic generation intervals. Our analysis shows that understanding the temporal course of asymptomatic transmission can be important for assessing the importance of this route of transmission, and for disease dynamics. This provides an additional motivation for investigating both the importance and relative duration of asymptomatic transmission.

Knowledge, attitude, and practices regarding COVID-19: A cross-sectional study among rural population in a northern Indian District

Background:First case of COVID-19 was reported in December 2019 and within a timespan of few months, it has become a pandemic. It has created havoc globally and India is no exception. Globally, it is emphasized that preventive measures play an important role in controlling the rapid spread of COVID-19. In India, 68% of population is rural and this population is going to play a crucial role in the containment of the pandemic. Realizing the key position of rural population in COVID control, this study was conducted to assess the knowledge, attitude, and practices of rural population about the disease.Method and Material:A cross-sectional questionnaire-based study was conducted on patients and their relatives from 1st April, 2020 to 31st May, 2020. A total of 372 participants hailing from rural areas were enrolled.Results:Most common source of information for the participants was through television (54.8%) and radio (49.2%). Only 77% claimed that they were using face mask and 72% claimed to be following social distancing. A large (60%) proportion of the participants did not know that COVID-19 could spread from asymptomatic patients. Education of participants was a key determinant for use of social distancing and face mask as a preventive tool. With increasing age, the practice of social distancing and the use of face mask were decreasing in our study.Conclusion:Television/Radio channels form an important source of information and need to be used more effectively to educate the people about the disease and create awareness about effective preventive measures. People need to be educated about the role of asymptomatic carriers in spreading the disease.

Impact of weather seasonality and sexual transmission on the spread of Zika fever

We establish a compartmental model to study the transmission of Zika virus disease including spread through sexual contacts and the role of asymptomatic carriers. To incorporate the impact of the seasonality of weather on the spread of Zika, we apply a nonautonomous model with time-dependent mosquito birth rate and biting rate, which allows us to explain the differing outcome of the epidemic in different countries of South America: using Latin Hypercube Sampling for fitting, we were able to reproduce the different outcomes of the disease in various countries. Sensitivity analysis shows that, although the most important factors in Zika transmission are the birth rate of mosquitoes and the transmission rate from mosquitoes to humans, spread through sexual contacts also highly contributes to the transmission of Zika virus: our study suggests that the practice of safe sex among those who have possibly contracted the disease, can significantly reduce the number of Zika cases.

Molecular Evidence for the Aerial Route of Infection of Mycobacterium leprae and the Role of Asymptomatic Carriers in the Persistence of Leprosy.

Leprosy persists as a public health problem. The chain of transmission and mechanism of infection are not completely understood. In the current study, we investigated the route of infection and of disease onset, from airway exposure, colonization, and bloodstream dissemination. Mycobacterium leprae DNA was detected through quantitative polymerase chain reaction in nasal vestibule, nasal turbinate mucosa, and peripheral blood samples, along with anti-phenolic glycolipid I serology and skin tests from the same individual, from 113 leprosy patients and 104 household contacts of patients (HHCs). Bivariate statistics and multiple correspondence analysis were employed. The rates of DNA positivity among patients were 66.4% (75 of 113) for nasal swab samples, 71.7% (81 of 113) for nasal turbinate biopsy samples, 19.5% (22 of 113) for blood samples, with seropositivity of 62.8% (71 of 113 samples) and with increasing incidences toward the multibacillary pole of the clinical spectrum. Positivity among HHCs were as follows: 49% (51 of 104) for nasal swab samples, 53.8% (56 of 104) for nasal biopsy samples, 6.7% (7 of 104) for blood samples, and 18.3% (19 of 104 samples) for anti-phenolic glycolipid I serology. During the follow-up of 5-7 years, out of 104 HHCs, 7 developed leprosy (6.7%). Risk for the disease outcome was estimated by comparing results in HHCs who develop leprosy with those not affected. Neither nasal passage nor mucosa positivity was determinant of later disease onset; however, blood presence increased the risk for disease development (relative risk/positive likelihood ratio, 5.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-23.62), as did seropositivity (positive likelihood ratio, 3.69 [1.67-8.16]; relative risk, 5.97 [1.45-24.5]). Our findings strongly suggest that the aerosol route of infection and transmission is predominant and that HHCs contribute to the infection risk to themselves and probably to others.

Role of asymptomatic carriers and weather variables in persistent transmission of malaria in an endemic district of Assam, India

BackgroundMalaria transmission is perennial in the Assam–Arunachal Pradesh interstate border areas in the Sonitpur district of Assam, India. A yearlong study was carried out on the incidence of symptomatic and asymptomatic malaria and the role of asymptomatic malaria carriers in persistent transmission of the disease. The relationships between malaria incidence and weather parameters were also investigated.MethodsActive and mass blood surveys were conducted on a monthly basis in Bengenajuli, Sapairaumari Pathar, and Nigam villages near the Assam–Arunachal Pradesh border. Epidemiological indices were estimated for malaria-positive cases. Multiple linear regression between monthly malaria incidence and monthly average temperature, and relative humidity along with monthly total rainfall was carried out. The known malaria vectors collected in CDC light traps were identified and recorded.ResultsSlide positivity rate (SPR) and Plasmodium falciparum percent (Pf%) for symptomatic malaria were 26.1 and 79.8, respectively. Prevalence of malaria vectors was observed throughout the year with varying density. Anopheles philippinensis/nivipes and A. annularis were predominant among the seven known vector species recorded currently. Asymptomatic parasitemia was detected throughout the year with SPR ranging from 4.8 to 5.3. Monthly rainfall with 1-month lag had the highest correlation (r=0.92) with SPR. The relationship between SPR and weather factors was established as SPR=−114.22+0.58 Tmin+1.38 RH+0.03 RF (R2=0.89; p=0.00).ConclusionLow and relatively constant levels of asymptomatic parasitemia was present in the study area. High malaria vector density and presence of asymptomatic malaria parasite carriers were responsible for persistent malaria transmission in the region. This study concludes that passive detection and prompt treatment of asymptomatic carriers is essential for preventing persistent disease transmission. Rainfall along with some other weather variables may be used for predicting the malaria epidemics in the region. The predictive information could be useful to target resources more effectively.

Cryptosporidium and Giardia as foodborne zoonoses

Cryptosporidium and Giardia are major causes of diarrhoeal disease in humans, worldwide and are major causes of protozoan waterborne diseases. Both Cryptosporidium and Giardia have life cycles which are suited to waterborne and foodborne transmission. There are 16 ‘valid’ Cryptosporidium species and a further 33+ genotypes described. Parasites which infect humans belong to the Giardia duodenalis “type”, and at least seven G. duodenalis assemblages are recognised. Cryptosporidium parvum is the major zoonotic Cryptosporidium species, while G. duodenalis assemblages A and B have been found in humans and most mammalian orders. In depth studies to determine the role of non-human hosts in the transmission of Cryptosporidium and Giardia to humans are required. The use of harmonised methodology and standardised and validated molecular markers, together with sampling strategies that provide sufficient information about all contributors to the environmental (oo)cyst pool that cause contamination of food and water, are recommended. Standardised methods for detecting (oo)cysts in water are available, as are optimised, validated methods for detecting Cryptosporidium in soft fruit and salad vegetables. These provide valuable data on (oo)cyst occurrence, and can be used for species and subspecies typing using appropriate molecular tools. Given the zoonotic potential of these organisms, epidemiological, source and disease tracking investigations involve multidisciplinary teams. Here, the role of the veterinarian is paramount, particularly in understanding the requirement for adopting comprehensive sampling strategies for analysing both sporadic and outbreak samples from all potential non-human contributors. Comprehensive sampling strategies increase our understanding of parasite population biology and structure and this knowledge can be used to determine what level of discrimination is required between isolates. Genetic exchange is frequent in C. parvum populations, leading to recombination between alleles at different loci, the generation of a very large number of different genotypes and a high level of resolution between isolates. In contrast, genetic exchange appears rare in Cryptosporidium hominis and populations are essentially clonal with far fewer combinations of alleles at different loci, resulting in a much lower resolution between isolates with many being of the same genotype. Clearly, more markers provide more resolution and high throughput sequencing of a variety of genes, as in multilocus sequence typing, is a way forward. Sub-genotyping tools offer increased discrimination, specificity and sensitivity, which can be exploited for investigating the epidemiology of disease, the role of asymptomatic carriers and contaminated fomites and for source and disease tracking for food and water contaminated with small numbers of (oo)cysts.

Mathematical model of the development of an epidemic process with aerosol transmission

A model of a pathogenic system with respiratory transmission was proposed. The internal regulation mechanism and the conditions for the onset of seasonal rise in morbidity were studied. The role of asymptomatic carriers in the formation of the virulence potential of the pathogen was shown.